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Understanding Opportunity

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I just want to add a couple of points to the discussion on opportunity, one relating to progressives' tendency to get distracted by inequality when thinking about opportunity, and one relating to the evidence that is brought to bear when assessing how much opportunity there is.

When most progressives think of opportunity, they have in mind something like Amartya Sen's concept of capability - the chance to pursue whatever personal aims a person holds dear. As numerous political philosophers have recognized, there must be limits to what individuals can legitimately claim from their fellow citizens in pursuit of their aims. For instance, no amount of money might suffice to give the severely disabled "equal" opportunity. And I would expect that asking you all to subsidize me so I can go to Paris with my girlfriend would go over like flatulence in church. Nevertheless, the basic progressive conceptualization of opportunity is much less muddled than the idea among some conservatives that so long as there is a chance--any chance--at success in life, then there is equal opportunity.

Many progressives, however, go further and suggest that for opportunities to be equal, there must be limited economic inequality. But this need not be the case. Imagine a society - and you really do have to imagine it - where every child has an equal opportunity to fill any slot in an occupational structure where positions are unequally compensated. In this extreme case, you would have something resembling Rawls's veil of ignorance, where no parents would have any idea which position their children will end up with because chance would determine everything that individual preference did not. In such a world, selfish and compassionate motives would be aligned, and you can bet we would have a robust safety net, extensive redistribution by the state, institutions to impose greater equality on compensation levels, or some combination of these departures from laissez-faire.

Note however, that even in such a world, some amount of economic inequality would be necessary to ensure that essential goods and services were provided where occupations involve large training costs (e.g., surgeons) or unpleasant conditions (e.g., trash collecting). Even more, inequality would be necessary to ensure that entrepreneurial risk paid off--risk that stands to benefit everyone by promoting economic growth.

Very few progressives make a well-considered case that inequality itself--or inequality beyond the level found in Scandinavian countries--limits opportunity, let alone consider the amount that is necessary to expand opportunity. (Robert Frank is a notable exception.) A true Rawlsian would deem it important to find out what the optimal level of inequality is--Rawls's theory of justice allowed for inequality to the extent that the worst-off person benefited.

That opposition to inequality can constitute a distraction for those concerned with opportunity is also illustrated by the fact that the financial crisis has us in the midst of a period where inequality is sure to decline. I don't know about you, but I would rather inequality have remained high and unemployment low, if that was an option.

Still skeptical? What if I told you that half of the income inequality that exists in the United States is between full biological siblings, with the other half constituting inequality between people who are unrelated? It's true--I've run the numbers myself using Census Bureau data. We tend to talk about inequality only as if the haves and have nots come from different sides of the tracks, when it's just as accurate to say that they slept in the same room, one on the top bunk one on the bottom.

A better way to assess economic opportunity in America is to look at trends in economic growth and mobility. Unfortunately, doing this correctly is extremely complicated. The basic story is that when business cycle fluctuations are put aside, the last 35 years or so have seen the growth of men's earnings slow notably compared with the decades after World War II, or even reverse for those in the bottom part of the economic distribution. The typical man has earnings that are basically as high (or as low) as they ever were, but men's earnings for those in the top part of the economic distribution have increased--the more sharply the closer one gets to the richest fraction of American men.

Women have seen pretty unambiguous gains over this period. Even the figures for men must be qualified in two critical ways. First, many scholars believe that conventional estimates understate improvement in living standards because the way that earnings are adjusted to account for inflation fails to fully capture improvements in the goods and services that Americans purchase. Some scholars even believe that this bias is greatest among the poorest Americans--that conventional estimates understate improvement among the poor even more than they understate improvement among those better off. Second, fringe benefits have become increasingly valuable relative to earnings over time. To oversimplify a bit, we have chosen to trade off higher wages for health insurance that has become steadily more generous in terms of coverage and more costly over time (which has also been a choice to make fewer employers able to afford it over time). To my knowledge, no one has yet convincingly shown what trends in total compensation (earnings plus benefits) would look like for people at different parts of the distribution.

Household incomes have grown impressively for most Americans, particularly when measured in a way that accounts for the fact that families have become smaller so there is more money available per person. Income growth at the bottom is less impressive while that at the top has been stunning. Nevertheless, inequality between the bottom and the middle has held fairly steady over the past generation.

Recently, the Pew Charitable Trusts has been accumulating a rich database on economic mobility - the extent to which people move up or down the economic ladder over a generation or over a span of years - via its Economic Mobility Project. (I am the research manager of EMP, but I must emphasize that I am not speaking on behalf of the Project or Pew here.) The evidence on trends in intergenerational mobility is sparse, but the best studies show that there has been little change in recent decades in the extent to which parents' income predicts one's own income. Similarly, there has been little change in the extent to which people move up or down over a ten-year period.

Many on the left will argue that I am painting too rosy a picture either because earnings or household income growth hasn't kept up with productivity growth or because the growth in household income has only been accomplished by greater numbers of women being forced to enter the workforce and work longer hours. The evidence in support of these claims is weak however. Other critics focus on the last business cycle--the post-9/11 era. It is certainly true that earnings and income growth have been miserable over this period, but that hardly means that that will be the shape of things forevermore.

The point is not that the American Dream is necessarily alive and well. The answer to that question is only partly related to the question of whether things are getting better or worse. Opportunity might even be spreading rapidly but not yet distributed broadly enough. If one compares the United States to other countries, we don't look so good. Opportunity is unequally distributed among segments of the U.S. population. But to expand opportunities it is important to understand the problem correctly. To the extent that things are getting worse, they are getting worse among people who bring insufficient skills to the labor market. The way to expand opportunity to them is to make sure we equalize the chance to fill the positions that exist in society (through educational and developmental interventions that target children), not to demonize the mega-rich and prevent them from becoming mega.


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Okay, I just posted elsewhere that an asteroid should fall on the World Economic Forum but you're right that demonizing the mega rich isn't going to solve our problems.

One big issue is one of perception. If people feel the system is rigged against them moving up the economic ladder then they will get discouraged and won't fully participate. So we do need to emphasize the chances that people have.

But we also need to acknowledge that Horatio Alger's chance is not chance enough.

I propose to you that the problem of income inequality can be restated as the problem of access. For example, Bill Gates did not rise out of nothing. His parents were rich and sent him to the Lakeside School, a prep school so well endowed that a young Gates had access to early computer networks while most university students were still playing with punch cards. Gates famously dropped out of Harvard and built a business out of his garage into an empire. But he only dropped out of Harvard because his rich parents gave him a high school education that, at least in Gates' field, rivaled what the Ivy League could offer at the time. Gates' unequal access to education, because his parents had money, was a real leg up!

Caroline Kennedy almost got appointed to a senate seat when anyone else with her qualifications but not her family connections, would never have been considered. Seriously, if Paterson had asked to see resumes without names on them, from which he'd pick his pool of potential senate appointees, he would not have picked her.

Or look at News Corp. -- a public company run as a family empire. There are always high paying executive jobs available to those related to Murdoch. Since when was nepotism part of guarding the wealth of shareholders?

It isn't that there's no economic mobility in the US. There is, even in bad times like the last 10 years here has been mobility of people within certain professions (and downward mobility for people in others) but there is still a sense that the game is rigged and that has to be addressed.

It's funny -- people used to be all up in arms about affirmative action and the notion that a qualified candidate for a job or course of study might not get in because the gatekeepers would be seeking diversity when it's always been the case that qualified people don't get jobs because of nepotism or wealth and nobody ever really complained about that.

But it probably is worth complaining about. The game is still rigged, Scott. It's access inequality. A lobbyist can get a repeated meetings with my senator but I probably couldn't get one unless I persisted at it for a couple of years. The difference between me and the lobbyist is money that equals access.

So not to demonize the mega wealthy but how are we to have a functioninig democracy when they have all the access to power, industry and education and the rest of us have very little?

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Second.

I might add that for me, the issue isn't demonizing the mega-rich. Its the sustainability of an economy and a culture that permits -- no, supports -- the concentration of a vast majority of a nation's wealth with a microminority of its citizens.

Especially when a healthy percentage of that microminority seem incapable of behaving themselves.

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the game is rigged\

That's because in the distribution of the single most important substrate of meritocracy, education (especially early education) the universal system of supporting public schools through local property taxes is fatal to even the pretense of equality of opportunity.

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Scott, you wrote:
"To oversimplify a bit, we have chosen to trade off higher wages for health insurance that has become steadily more generous in terms of coverage and more costly over time (which has also been a choice to make fewer employers able to afford it over time)."

Health insurance that has become steadily more generous in terms of coverage? That isn't what the data I've seen suggests. The dominant trend in retirement security likewise has been towards erosion.

In the Stephen Rose article you link to, that author claims that those on the left have been de-emphasizing the importance of economic growth relative to redistribution. Do you agree? If Stephen Rose were listening in I would ask him who, specifically, among those on the left, does he have in mind?

Do you mean to deny, or merely question, that for many American families, entrance of, usually, women into the paid workforce, or working longer hours, has been a felt necessity to acquire or just hold onto, widely perceived staples of the American dream such as homeownership, or to compensate for wage and/or benefits stagnation or decline of other household wage earners, even as prices of many staples continue to rise steadily? And that this situation does not represent a perceived improvement in quality of life for a great many of those who have made these choices?

The prospect of having too much equality in our society is about the least of my concerns at the moment. Insofar as this supposed backlash among "the left" against growth, I just don't see any evidence of it. Green economy Americans, from all parts of the political spectrum but certainly including the left, heavily emphasize the growth possibilities of the transitions we need to make. I just don't get where you are coming from on that.

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Health insurance *has* become more generous. The fraction of expenditures paid for by private insurance rose through the 1980s or early 1990s for hospital care, physician & clinical services, dental services, home health care, prescription drugs, and nursing home care (http://www.cms.hhs.gov/NationalHealthExpendData/downloads/nhe2006.zip). The employer share of health expenditures split between employers and employees didn't change between 1987 and 2005 (http://www.cms.hhs.gov/NationalHealthExpendData/Downloads/bhg07.pdf). The share of employers offering insurance did decline beginning in the early 1980s, but the decline is tiny compared to the increase in employer coverage from the 1940s through the 1970s. What has happened is that health care insurance has grown more expensive for employers and employees alike, but employers are NOT shifting costs.

Employers spend more on employees' retirement security than in the 1980s too, even though defined-benefit pensions are growing rarer. According to research by the head of the National Bureau of Economic Research, on net, people will do better with defined contribution plans rather than defined benefit plans, even taking into account limited take-up and cashing-out prematurely.

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Scott, you wrote that: "Health insurance *has* become more generous. The fraction of expenditures paid for by private insurance rose through the 1980s or early 1990s for hospital care, physician & clinical services, dental services, home health care, prescription drugs, and nursing home care."

Do you make the same claim for what has happened since the early 1990s? A lot has happened since the early 1990s in our health care sector.

I don't disagree that health care cost inflation accounts for some of the negative trends on health security.

Health insurance coverage expanded between the 1940s and 1970s during a time when the union movement was in far better shape than it is today.
I don't see that it is any comfort whatsoever to those who have lost their health insurance or seen it gutted to tell them that health insurance coverage expanded from the 1940s to the 1970s. People aren't living the 1940s or the 1970s. The number of uninsured has grown over the past decade, even as a percentage of the overall population, I believe.

Do you have any concern about the viability and/or wisdom of a retirement system in which, instead of having employers or people (whether hired by employers or by the government) who are skilled at the long-term management of assets, we are relying instead on individuals who have widely varying degree of such skill, to do so?

It's probably too early to tell whether the greatly heightened volatility in the stock market in particular is likely to be a long-term trend. The NBER research you have in mind (do you have a link to it?) is dated when? Does it assume that past performance of the stock market, averaged out over time, is a reasonably good predictor of future stock market performance averaged out over time? Such an assumption may or may not hold.

Does it look at distributional issues in addition to aggregated calculations on defined-contribution plan versus defined-benefit plan performance? Averaged out, returns could be higher with a defined contribution system. But if there is likely to be a large percentage of people who end up doing much worse as a result of bad luck on when they retire or in the job market or poor investment decisions, would you still see that as a step in the right direction?

Even if greater investment returns volatility is not a long-term trend, I am concerned that the type of retirement security system we have increasingly moved towards is likely to result in much higher poverty rates among our elderly population, even if economic growth over the next few decades is similar to what it has been over the past few decades.

Economic life is likely to be very different in the future than it was a few decades ago, in the frequency with which people change jobs, and in reduced job security in most sectors, to name two ways. This seems to call for, from where I sit, a very different approach to how health and retirement security are provided in our society. It makes no sense whatsoever to rely primarily on employers to provide health insurance, or not. The goals of retirement security policy should be to reduce risk--or at least to offer to those who are willing to accept more modest returns managed approaches which are low risk--and keep poverty to a minimum for our elderly population.

I think we should be thinking about how we can do much better in these two areas, not contenting ourselves with treading water, at best, if not moving in the wrong direction.

Obviously, how well the economy performs overall will have a major effect on how difficult the tradeoffs would be in doing that. But beyond that I think there has been a basic mindset issue in terms of what the appropriate goals of policy in these areas should be. We continue to handicap ourselves by our refusal to cast aside the market-worshiping ideological blinders. One would think now of all times it should be a little easier to let go of some of the bad thinking and illusions.

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Can you tell a steel worker in Ohio that jobs have gotten better? A textile worker in North Carolina? An autoworker in Indiana?

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No. But to be fair, he's not trying to do that. He acknowledges that especially in the last decade, workers in certain sectors have seen their earnings deteriorate.

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God, what a bunch of whiners. You pick out Gates, Murdoch, and the Kennedy's as representative? What, did you expect anyone from a slum to become the richest person in the world in one fell swoop? How inane.

We don't live in a fairy tale. A kissed frog doesn't turn into a prince. Someone with talent, drive, and luck, can be President. That doesn't mean everyone can. why don't you people get a little more realistic. Then you'll get a better idea of opportunity that is within reach of everybody. And it is, victimologists not withstanding.

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opportunity that is within reach of everybody.

It is somehow fitting that your avatar of a perplexed hound accompanies your *persistent inability to grapple with meta-analysis, coupled with a smug and self congratulatory substitution of platitudes for apposite response.

Do you even begin to think about the topic at hand?


*one which I have had the opportunity to observes across thread and time, alas.

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I've lived the topic at hand, and can safely say that meta-analysis is useless at the individual level. I've also found that whiners are useless as well.

Give me someone with smarts and motivation to succeed... and it almost always happens. No matter where that person came from.

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Many progressives, however, go further and suggest that for opportunities to be equal, there must be limited economic inequality. But this need not be the case. Imagine a society - and you really do have to imagine it - where every child has an equal opportunity to fill any slot in an occupational structure where positions are unequally compensated.

I have been struggling against the Rawlsian milquetoast idiocy since I first encountered it as an undergraduate. It is depressing that it has continued to take in generations of impressionable young fools.

Yes, in principle, in the fictional dreamworlds of Rawlisan constructivist cogitation, we could have a society in which inequality of outcome did not lead to growing inequalities in opportunity. But in practice, in the world of flesh and blood human beings, it hasn't and can't work that way. Wealth is power. It is power because wealth, by definition, consists in the possession of things people desire. Thus, whoever possesses wealth also possesses the ability to control the desires and behavior of other human beings, and has power over them, and to turn their wealth and power into yet more wealth and power.

My wealth may come in a variety of forms: money, durable material goods, intellectual goods, etc. Now obviously, if I possess more power than you, I possess more opportunity than you. But more importantly, my children almost certainly possess more opportunity than you. No human society has ever devised a system in which the inequalities of the parent, and of the social milieu of the parent, are not passed on to offspring. We could perhaps imagine such a system. We could have a system in which children were ripped from their parents at birth, and raised in state schools and special communities in which each child receives equal nurturing and an equal educational foundation, with equal access to the resources on which character, curiosity and psychological health are built. But obviously we have nothing resembling such a society, and Americans would never dream of creating one.

The only practical, humanly realistic means of getting equality of opportunity requires aiming for equality of outcome. With proper vigilance and maintenance, equal outcomes can be perpetuated and sustained across generations. Inequality, however, breeds deeper inequality from one generation to the next, with an accelerating, chaotic dynamism.

Note however, that even in such a world, some amount of economic inequality would be necessary to ensure that essential goods and services were provided where occupations involve large training costs (e.g., surgeons) or unpleasant conditions (e.g., trash collecting).

False on the first: training costs for essential professions can and should be socialized, and distributed across the entire society. If these functions really are essential, then we should pay to equip the best people for the positions, with the best education we can provide them. On the second point, only partially true. We have reasonably good trash collection in this country, for example, and yet trash collectors aren't millionaires. When you suggest we would have to pay them more, you seem to be thinking of the fact that we have to pay them more than the other low-pay, low-skill, socially marginal groups from which they are drawn. I doubt you could advance any evidence that they must be paid more than the mean or median income.

Even more, inequality would be necessary to ensure that entrepreneurial risk paid off--risk that stands to benefit everyone by promoting economic growth.

Risk can also be socialized to a much greater extent than it is now.

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You are a truly scary guy.

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Oh yeah? You're the guy named "shooter". Some are always scared by the possibility of peace, equality and and social harmony, and will do everything they can to deny its possibility.

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do everything

Oh please!....You give this clown efficacy??

He hasn't got the beginning of an idea what you (or he, for that matter) are talking about.

I mean, seriously.

A theory of justice? You want to discuss theory with Shooter? Give me a fuckin' break.

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Gee Dan, you've never shot baskets, billiards, photos, or vodka? You shouldn't indulge in stereotypes and prejudice. It's the product of a limited mind.

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I do like Rawls but his is a thought experiment. We're already not in a Rawlsian society where the rules have already been picked to stress fairness across class divisisions. Rawls said that if we got to make the rules in advance, without knowing what economic position we'd be born into, we'd make some fair rules. But that decidedly didn't happen so it doesn't apply here.

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I think you are so immersed in numbers that you can't see real people. Take your sibling stats. It's one thing to be the prodigal son if your family is wealthy and quite another if your family has nothing or you have no family. It's one thing to choose to not earn a great deal because you know you could if you chose to or you have family who'd help you out. Who doesn't know people like this? It's quite another to be a member of the underclass with little education, no skills, children to support and no help from family. It's one thing to have opportunity and squander it and another to not have the opportunity at all. The problem is not only skills, it's class.

As to the mega-rich, taxing them is not the same as demonizing them, they just think so. And unless you are quite clever, they'll bail on their taxes as quickly as you can say Secretary of the Treasury. I have little sympathy for the entitled class. They haven't proven to be any smarter than the rest of us.

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Well said. Especially this:

As to the mega-rich, taxing them is not the same as demonizing them
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taxing them is not the same as demonizing them

Thank you!

I'll tell you who demonizes the mega talented/mega rich. It's Fat Freddy Hayek and his crowd who claim that unless "incentivized" (what an horrendous neologism!) by the right to keep a full two-thirds of his second billion dollars, and each billion thereafter, Bill Gates would have just stayed home with his first Billion and made babies, and we'd still be using Big Iron.

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Right, or the notion that a corporate exec with a $5 million bonus will go on some sort of Ayn Randian strike because it's not $10 million. Laughable!

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Ayn Randian

Alisa Rosenbaumian....

Nah, just doesn't scan the same...

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I prefer "sycophants to hasbeen bodice-ripper romance writers..."

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bodice-ripper

Alas, she herself was, (as you are doubtless aware) far from immune to the urge to rip (in this case, her own) the odd bodice or two...

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If you believe conservatives, Gates would never have even started Microsoft. Reagan hadn't even been elected. What incentive did he have to go into business?

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What incentive did he have to go into business?

As if the alpha male doesn't get all the pussy, whether his marginal tax bracket is 90% or 38%!

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When compared to other developed countries the US has higher wealth inequality, poorer health care (even though it spends more), shorter lifespans and a variety of other indicators that show that life is less pleasant for vast swaths of the populace.

These societies don't permit, in general, the kind of wealth accumulation that has happened in the US. Either they have high taxes during one's earning period or they have high inheritance taxes.

Notice that since Thatcher the UK has dropped much of the structure that it had put in place to eliminate the landed gentry and the result has been the rise of just the sort of social problems that we see here.

There is no plausible reason that anyone can give as to why the Walton family should be worth in excess of $100 billion while their employees are told how to apply for food stamps and Medicaid.

Wealth inequality has gone too far in this country and the policies which they have promoted though buying politicians and public opinion have been a disaster for the vast majority.

Defenders of the status quo like to paint things in black and white terms, but there is a need for nuance. Japan gets along fine with CEO's earning 20 times the average employee's pay, why do we need them to earn 400 times?

Let's bring a bit of reality to this subject.

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Hear! Hear!

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What you write, rdf, is so incredibly sensible that it is hard to comprehend how anyone could argue to the contrary. Yet, there remains a keen sense of entitlement to the wealthiest on Wall Street and elsewhere, including the Waltons as you so pointedly show as an example.

It takes the morals of a hedgehog (and absolutely nothing more!) to seize billions in bonuses on the eve of receiving gov't bailout funds such as Thane did at Merrill Lynch. Yet, he would be the first to tell you that he is a respectable businessman.

And perhaps he is right. Perhaps after years of evolving as nothing more than robbers and parasites, Thane does now indeed make a fair and respectable representation of what it is to be a businessman.

But I think this leaves it to us to alter the relevant definitions, and to be ruthless in our contempt for these criminals as we move to hold them accountable.

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SJ, Amen!

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Well said, rdf.

Of course, one of the reasons the Walton empire is worth $100 billion is precisely because their employees have to apply for food stamps and Medicaid.

No, you cannot justify ceo making 400 times an average employee. Especially when his/her counterpart in Europe or Japan makes one twentieth as much for doing a better job.

Echoing destor's earlier post, the problem is less with inequality than with privilege and the cloistered nepotism of corporate boards. And the unfathomable persistence of a large percentage of working class people to vote against their economic self-interest.

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Look folks, you need rich people. People are rich because people like you decided to trade your cash for something the rich person could provide. Something you are too poor, stupid, or just incapable of providing for yourself.

In Gate's case it was Windows, in the Walton's case it was a Dept. store with inexpensive goods, in Murdoch's case it was a news outlet. They provided something you people couldn't, and you (general) traded money for it in great quantities. That makes them special. More importantly they provided the country with something that made us all better off than we were before.

And more importantly to you they pay millions in taxes. Here's a truism you can't escape... no profits, no taxes. Here's another.... who is greedier? The man that wants to keep more of what he earns or the man that covets those earnings for himself?

Any questions? Bring it on.

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Well, thank Jimmy Carter. Gates started Microsoft when Jimmy was President so I guess he didn't need the Reagan Revolution to be incentivized.

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What in the world do Carter or Reagan have to do with anything? When people have a dream and an idea, it doesn't matter who is President.

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It doesn't matter what the tax rate is either.

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It does at some point in the process.

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So just how is that income inequality among siblings distributed by gender or by age? And how does the equation change when you talk about wealth inequality?

One can also imagine, of course, a society (say, almost anywhere in Europe) where income inequality isn't as much of a problem because adequate education, health care, housing and so forth don't depend critically on level and continuity of income. But the same people who handwave away the widening inequality in the US (c'mon, are the current generation of managers really 3-10x smarter and more skilled in relation to the rest of us than the previous one?) also seem to push strongly against providing the public goods that would make inequality less of a burden.

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Managers? Are there managers? Three times in the last week someone working retail with not a manager in sight handed me a phone number I was supposed to call to report on the quality of their work. Who manages anything anymore? They've turned their ompanies over to computer models and when the models are inadequate to real world conditions, the companies implode. We don't have managers. We have looters.

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I computed the figures separately for men and women, so that's not a factor. I also confined the calculation to people 45-50 years old, so that's not an issue either. Finally, I averaged income from 4 years to mitigate the impact of volatility.

If I remember correctly, my advisor, Sandy Jencks found basically the same result in the early 1970s.

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