What Should Be Done With The Next $350 Billion of Taxpayer Bailout: Criteria for TARP II
It's difficult to make the case that the first $350 billion bailout of Wall Street -- so-called "TARP I" -- fulfilled its goals, unless one argues that the Street would have imploded without it, which is pretty much what Hank Paulson is saying these days. And since it's impossible to prove a counter-factual, especially when the Treasury was never clear about TARP I's goals to begin with, Paulson may have a point. But the easier and probably more correct argument is that American taxpayers wasted $350 billion. No one knows exactly where it went -- at least two recent reports reveal that the Treasury had no idea -- but we do know the money did not go to small businesses, struggling homeowners, students, or anyone else needing credit, which was the major public justification for the bailout. In all likelihood, on the basis of the skimpy evidence we now have, the money went instead to bank shareholders in the form of dividends; to bank executives, traders, and directors as compensation (directors of major Wall Street banks continued to pull down an average of $350K each in 2008 merely for sitting in on a handful of board meetings at which they obviously didn't oversee very much); to some holders of bank debt; and to platoons of lawyers, accountants, and other financiers who have advised the banks about other places to park the rest of the money in the meantime.
Congress is now about to give the next Treasury secretary an additional $350 billion, as the second tranche of the bailout. One hopes that the new administration will use it better. Some suggested conditions:
1. Do not use any of the money to buy stock in -- that is, to "recapitalize" -- the banks. This is a sinkhole of cosmic proportion. Citigroup, to take but one example, has so far received $45 billion of taxpayer cash since early October (along with some $250 billion in taxpayer-supported guarantees from the Fed for junky assets on Citi's balance sheets), and is in far worse financial shape than it was three months ago. Perhaps, someday over the rainbow, these shares in Citi along with Citi's lousy assets will be worth more than taxpayers paid for them. But we're not in Wonderland yet and probably never will be. Giving Citi or any other big bank more taxpayer money is analogous to
giving it to Bernard Madoff. It's a giant Ponzi scheme. The money will disappear.
2. Do not use the money to buy the banks' "troubled" assets. This might have made sense a year ago when the proportion of such assets -- which include mortage-backed securities as well as loans to private-equity partnerships that pissed them away -- was relatively small. But these days a huge and growing proportion of bank assets are "troubled." (It's also a huge waste of taxpayer dollars for the Fed to exchange them for Treasury bills.)
3. Prohibit any bank that gets TARP II funds from issuing dividends, purchasing other companies, or paying off creditors.
4. Bar any bank that gets TARP II funds from paying its executives, traders, or directors more than 10 percent of what they received in 2007.
5. Require that any bank getting TARP II funds be reimbursed by its executives, traders, and directors 50 percent of whatever amounts they were compensated in 2005, 2006, 2007, and 2008. This compensation was, after all, based on false premises and fraudulant assertions, and on balance sheets that hid the true extent of these banks' risks and liabilities.
6. Insist that at least 90 percent of the TARP II money be used for new bank loans. If the banks cannot find suitable lenders, they should return the money.
You may judge these conditions harsh. I think them prudent. They may force a number of big banks to go into chapter 11 bankruptcy, which would not be the end of the world but perhaps the beginning. At least then we'd find out what was on their balance sheets, because they'd have no choice but to sell off some of their junk, even at fire-sale prices (believe me, if the price is low enough, there are investors around the world who will buy them); they'd have to negotiate with their creditors and pay some of them off; many of their CEOs would be fired and directors replaced, which they should have been already; and most of their shareholders would be wiped out, which is unfortunate for them but, hey, they took the risk. In other words, these provisions would force the banks to clean up their balance sheets.
This is the only way to get them to start lending again.
Meanwhile, Congress should attach to TARP II -- or to the upcoming stimulus bill -- a small change in the bankruptcy law allowing homeowners to renegotiate their mortgages on their primary residences (as owners of second homes and commercial real estate can already do). The practical effect will be to give homeowners more bargaining leverage with their mortgage banks, and save at least 800,000 homes
from foreclosure. Yes, in theory, holders of mortgage-backed securities will take a hit but as a practical matter they've already taken a hit because the securities (and the securities in which they're wrapped) are already deemed to be junk. At the least, this
change will put a bit of a damper on the rising number of foreclosures. A home that's occupied by a family paying something on their mortgage is far better than a home that's empty, on which no one is paying anything.















I love this guy.
January 15, 2009 11:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
He's a moron, to wit: Insist that at least 90 percent of the TARP II money be used for new bank loans.
The whole and entire purpose for enacting TARP -- as we and the Congress well understood at the time -- was recapitalization of the banks. Requiring banks to loan out TARP money defeats the purpose.
If you don't like TARP and its purposes, cancel it.
January 15, 2009 2:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ellen:
Why not 100%?
Also, I loved this:
"...the easier and probably more correct argument is that American taxpayers wasted $350 billion."
Passing the buck again. It was Paulson, Bush, and the Democratic Congress that wasted that $350 Billion.
January 15, 2009 2:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
But did they? waste it, that is?
I understand there's a Harvard economist right now researching that very question. Anticipated publication date: December 15, 2016.
January 15, 2009 2:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
It wasn't wasted, it was stolen from right under Paulson's nose.
January 15, 2009 5:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
The money went to China to secure all that Senior Fannie Mae debt before they pulled the rug out from under our feet. But don't wait for the politicians to own up to that one. "China owns US" may have made for good economics once upon a time, but it has always made for lousy politics.
January 16, 2009 6:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ellen, You are mistaken-TARP was passed because Wall Street imploded and they needed money quick. The original purpose of TARP was not to recapitalize the banks, it was to take toxic assets off the books of the banks (Troubled Assets Relief Program). The option to buy stakes in the banks was slipped into the bill at the last minute in the Senate version. Paulson wisely used that option instead of the stated purpose afterwords and without explanation. This was not well understood at the time- and I would argue it still isn't.
Recapitalization is generally the preferred tool when institutions are insolvent. To openly declare most banks broke would have invited widespread panic-and probably still would. By buying stakes we have sent the message that we will not allow these institutions to fail- this is a much better stabilization then to have wasted cash on dud assets. That accomplished, there is no reason why additional funds should not have significant strings attached. We have every right to exercise our ownership rights. If they don't need the cash then let them give it back.
January 15, 2009 4:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Excellent recap and analysis Saladin!
January 15, 2009 5:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
It would be were it not for the fact that Saladin apparently doesn't understand that buying toxic assets from banks (and other financial institutions) IS recapitalization!
January 15, 2009 7:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Touche, I was referring to the stock injection as recapitalization- you are correct and I will carry myself with shame. However, we bailed out the banks not to bail out their shareholders and sit on the cash but to solve the liquidity crisis and lend. That was why we recaptilized them.
January 15, 2009 10:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Saladin:
You start with the assumption that the financial institutions and banks have the best interests of the USA in mind. That is a false assumption. Their interest is in profits for themselves and for their owners.
What they did is to take sub-prime mortgages, repackage them and sell them to other Wall Street firms at a higher price, then those firms repackaged them again and sold them at a still higher price. This kept going until the packages were so far above their actual value, that the bottom dropped out of the market for those packages. It was a game of musical chairs with the last financial institution holding the packages the big loser. Since the Financial institutions were all trading these packages back and forth, they were all winners and were also all caught holding these vastly overpriced packages.
Then, in order to salvage something, they concocted a scheme to sell these packages to the US taxpayer at or near their inflated price. Hence the "Bailout".
They took a page from the Bush handbook and played the fear card - the financial markets will fail if we are not given great gobs of money.
A much better solution would have been to use the $700 Billion set up a US National Bank to compete with the current banks and allow the current banks to fail since they have performed so well for their owners, but so poorly for the USA.
It would be very interesting to know who the people, not the corporations, but the people who own the corporations, who own the banks which are getting these bailouts actually are.
January 15, 2009 6:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
A few points- We have effectively created a national bank with the Federal Reserve taking up the slack by lending to everybody big. Don't know enough about national banks to profess an opinion about the long term viablity of this.
I suffer no illusions I firmly believe that the people running the institutions are in it for their own pocketbook. I also acknowledge (albeit reluctantly) that most are not bad people. The entire system ran amuck. Nobody had a clue how it all worked but everybody was doing it so it must have been okay. There was too much cheap money chasing too few good loans with no oversight. That being said, some people need to go to jail.
Unfortunately, I don't really think we can seriously contemplate letting all the bad banks fail at the same time. They are all too interconnected that I doubt any large ones would survive. The worst offenders, investment banks, have already all collapsed. I hope Hedge funds are next.
January 15, 2009 10:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's hard to read your sarcasm, Ellen.
TARP was sold as a means to unfreeze credit markets. By all measures I've seen, interbank lending metrics improved dramatically in the fall. Whether this was due to TARP fiscally/fundamentally, due to TARP psychologically, or happened in spite of TARP... this is beyond my ability to answer. But it did happen and it was the direction of TARP even as TARP was modified to use stock injection isn't of fuzzy toxic purchases as the method.
January 15, 2009 5:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
TARP was modified to use stock injection instead of fuzzy toxic purchases as the method.
January 15, 2009 6:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
I intended no sarcasm.
Interbank lending was severely restricted earlier this Fall because ---
Some financial institutions were (and no one knew which were and which weren't) insolvent -- not illiquid, insolvent. To loan, even overnight, to an insolvent institution is to assume an inadequately priced risk. Sensible businessmen don't do it.
When a financial institution is adequately capitalized, it is, by definition, not insolvent and its promises to repay loans made to it are likely to be performed.
TARP was always intended to solve the insolvency problem by recapitalization. The precise method may have changed but the intention never did.
January 15, 2009 7:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
I disagree. They were not known to be insolvent, their status was uncertain, thus the so-called credit freeze. Risk is one thing, but super-sized uncertainty trumps normal risk analysis.
January 15, 2009 9:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nice idea. This proposal should be posted on http://citizensbriefingbook.change.gov/
January 15, 2009 11:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
Bravo, Sir. These are the ideas and guidelines the new administration should follow.
January 15, 2009 12:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Robert Reich for treasury secretary!
But realistically, is there any chance of any of that happening (especially reimbursement) with Tim Geithner in charge over there? I would guess no. Especially not the 'reimbursement for bonuses' thing. I'd love that, but I doubt it could happen.
Wall Street owns DC, and I don't see that changing any time soon. We need to do something about the insane amount of lobbying going on.
January 15, 2009 12:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
I do like the idea of buying bank shares with the money. They should be preferred, high dividend paying super-voting shares though that put the banks that take the money at the service of the public at large. Then a government committee could say, direct the bank to stop foreclosures because they're hurting America. Heck, that same committee could even bring ATM fees down.
If we're going to recapitalize them, let's pretty much nationalize them.
January 15, 2009 12:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
All pretty good suggestions. That means they are likely to fall on deag ears in Washington.
I especially like making them pay back the money they received on a fraudulent basis and limiting their bonus money.
Still, I have to wonder why Democrats and liberals, even the esteemed Prof. Reich continue to offer relief only to homeowners who find themselves at the end of their ropes in bankruptcy court. Shouldn't the idea be to help people avoid that eventuality? After all, bankruptcy for individuals is not at all like a business bankruptcy. In many states you are left with next to nothing in terms of personal property and so on meaning that bankruptcy in those states retains it's original meaning which is that you are practically penniless and destitute.
Again, I beseech Prof. Reich to explain why nobody seems to want to propose that Uncle Sam provide direct refinancing of mortgages to homewoners at 3-4% fixed rates. Those refi's would payoff many of the loans that are in line to fail soon. Home values can be readjusted as you suggest Prof. but prior to bankruptcy so people aren't in quite as dire straits. The difference between the current value and the old loans can be absorbed by the government and the banks on a 50/50 basis thus limiting the damage significantly but still making the financial instutions bear some of the responsibility they have for the whole debacle. It also frees up lots of income for homeowners that they can spend and help stimulate the economy. The government did this to a certain extent during the depression of the thirties, why not do it during this depression (and that is what it is)? I would love a response to this proposal Professor Reich! Why is this not being seriously discussed? Why would this not make sense for the country? Seems to me it would be a damn site better than putting more money into the bottomless pit we've been putting it into with no notable benefits. I'll eagerly await your response! Thank you!
January 15, 2009 12:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
A reason for the government not to offer cut-rate mortgage refinancing is that artificially cheaper mortgages - as we've seen - inflate the price of homes. The last thing we need is a recreation of the house price bubble, and the attendant overbuilding of junk houses. Housing needs to return to affordable levels. Otherwise younger people acquiring their first homes will be forced to take on too much debt.
What government should do instead is void all mortgages which have been fraudulently repackaged, and give those homes to those living in them. Banks that hold the mortgages they've issued will be find. The rest don't deserve to survive.
January 15, 2009 1:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
With the cost of money as low as it is right now, a 3% or 4% mortgage is not really artificially cheap. It just doesn't include the profit margin of the commercial lenders who hardly deserve it.
If we are using our own money (tax dollars) doesn't it make sense that we use it in a way where we actually make money off it instead of just borrowing in the trillions without any hope of repayment except by us the taxpayers via higher taxation forever and ever?
January 15, 2009 1:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
With the cost of money as low as it is right now . . . .
How low is it?
I'm sure you don't mean the interest rates available in the after-market and especially, interest rates on T-bills (borrow short - lend long?). You must be talking about 30-year government bonds.
And just how many of said bonds has Treasury sold (in the absence of which we don't know what the government's interest cost would be) over the past six months?
January 15, 2009 2:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Dear Mr. Reich. Since credit is the issue why not establish a national bank. That bank could lend to financial institutions and individuals.
January 15, 2009 12:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
A national bank may be one answewr.
The Federal Reserve Bank is neither Federal, nor does it have any reserves. It is privately owned by it's member banks. It would be interesting to see who (people) own those member banks or own the corporations which own those member banks.
January 15, 2009 2:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Re: "You may judge these conditions harsh." Harsh?!? Give me a break. These recommendations allow a 10% raise in a recession / depression and for those that caused the problems in the first place to keep 50% of their previous salaries. All the rest of the recommendations are just either good business decisions for the long run or the cost of doing (or continuing in) business.
January 15, 2009 12:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Um, I think you mis-read Prof. Reich's point #4.
He's saying if the guy made, say, a million dollars in 2007, he can't be paid more than 100k this year. In other words, he gets a 90% pay cut (not a 10% pay raise).
It'll never happen, but it is appropriate. And not too harsh, if you ask me.
-- ARG
January 15, 2009 12:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ah, thank you for pointing that out. I did misread. That makes more sense and I agree, it likely won't ever happen, but it's a nice thought.
January 15, 2009 1:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm beginning to think the whole world of finance is set up to operate like a ponzi scheme.
Moving on, from yesterday's Squawk Box or whatever it's called came the 'revelation' that as a matter of fact, it's not that lending institutions aren't lending - in fact would gladly lend - it's that nobody is applying for loans.
My goodness, we're not applying for loans, we're not consuming sufficiently, we're slacking off on house purchasing...beginning to sound like this whole financial tsunami is (my) our fault.
January 15, 2009 12:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Both the auto and the housing markets have built way beyond the ability or the need of people to purchase their products.
Just look at the new and used car lots. They are full and overflowing with little or no sales activity. Yet the American taxpayer is expected to bail out the auto companies because they have produced to many cars and trucks, have glutted the marketplace with their products, and now are having trouble selling those products?
January 15, 2009 2:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
So we don't know what happened to the first half of TARP, huh? Those of us who watched this clusterf*** unfold in the fall KNEW this would happen. It was baked in, as soon as Paulson said "Give us the money and don't ask questions." Why would this be a surprise.
And yes, finance is a big ponzi scheme and it requires all of us to spend 110 percent of our incomes indefinitely. When we start to behave rationally, it collapses. Welcome to the Great American Financial Enema of 2009 (and 2010).
January 15, 2009 12:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
You are absolutely correct.
The thievery of last fall was no different than the foolish rush to war in Iraq or the idiotic Patriot Act or granting immunity to the telecoms for knowingly and wontonly making a mockery of our anti-domestic spying laws. Anyone with even a moderate amount of common sense could see how thin the gruel was they were serving up as a rationale for the great heist of 2008. Yet, our Congress passed the blank check to Paulson and all the aforementioned things and often with Democrats in the majority. It is frightening how little common sense Democrats have displayed these past 8 years. Fools!
January 15, 2009 5:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Asking where the money went is a nonsensical question. Treasury did not deliver small marked bills to the banks, and money is the ultimate in fungible commodities.
So if a bank with a trillion in assets received $25 billion, you might just as well assume that TARP accounted for 2.5% of every payment the bank has made since then. Or possibly and more realistically, if the bank had $100 billion in Tier 1 capital, you could assume that the TARP money accounted for 20% of every subsequent payment by the bank.
The effect of TARP money has actually been to replace the money that had been lost by the banks due to making bad loans/mortgages and making bad bets in the derivatives markets. This preserved them as going concerns. The Lehman collapse was bad enough. Had Citi, Merrill, or especially JPM gone under, it would have brought down the whole $500+ trillion edifice of unregulated derivative trades, and resulted in a swift, disorderly collapse of the global financial system (instead of the slower, more orderly collapse we are now enjoying).
Most likely, the other $350 billion of TARP II will also be needed to shore up the banking system. This is exclusive of the roughly $1 trillion to be spent on stimulating the economy.
Spending the stimulation package on the residential housing problem is a poor choice, since the problem was due to over consumption and over speculation in housing, especially in California, Arizona, Nevada, and Florida. Attempting to blow this bubble up again will be particularly hard because the "boomers" will be retiring soon. Instead of heading down I-95 and I-75 to enjoy their retirement in condos and golf course McMansions, they will find that they need to move in with the kids in the Northeast and Midwest. The flow of retirees well-heeled by union pensions and hefty retirement plans will dry up, considering the state of the unions and the 401Ks (aside from public-employee unions, e.g. NYC teachers).
The stimulation plan should be spent on investments - things that will result in an economic benefit in future years. It should not be spent on stimulating more consumption or on giving tax breaks to the rich.
January 15, 2009 2:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Indeed. Fungibility is the point of money in the first place!
January 15, 2009 2:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Money is fungible. So what!
While true, If an individual or corporation is loaned (or given) any amount of money (say $350 Billion) it is reasonable to ask where $350 Billion of their dollars were spent.
The fact that money is fungible has no impact on determining how the banks and financial institutions have spent the $350 Billion which was loaned (given) to them.
Whether they spent the $350 Billion which was loaned (given) to them or whether they spent $100 Billion of previous assets and $250 Billion of the TARP I money is irrevalent.
The fact that money is fungible is a straw man argument designed solely to confuse the issue of how the money was spent.
January 15, 2009 3:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
According to today's release of 4Q'08 earnings, JP Morgan Chase originated $28.1 billion of mortgages in 4Q.
JP Morgan Chase received (was forced to take, actually) $25 billion of TARP money.
Was the $25 billion from TARP the money that went into the mortgage originations?
Does it matter?
January 15, 2009 5:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just what were JP Morgan's Q4-08 earnings, and why mention that they have been published without supplying those figures?
January 15, 2009 7:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
http://investor.shareholder.com/jpmorganchase/downloads.cfm
See page 18 of the earnings supplement.
January 15, 2009 10:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Public employee pension funds -- almost all of which are grossly underfunded and are now loudly crying for taxpayer bailouts -- shouldn't have any special privilege.
More Chapter 9 bankruptcies, please!
January 15, 2009 2:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
States can't go bankrupt. Chapter 9 is for government entities (local governments, utility districts and the like). States have constitutional obligations that preclude bankruptcy.
January 15, 2009 4:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Underfunded state pension plans.
While it may be political suicide, state lawmakers can always raise taxes to fund the state pensions they put into law.
The state lawmakers should have thought about funding when they passed the legislation granting those state pensions.
I have trouble feeling sorry for state legislators who are spending money they don't have, and are unwilling to raise taxes to obtain.
By definition, both State and Federal governmental deficit spending is a ponzi scheme - using deficit spending (borrowing) to pay off unresolved past expenses while continuing to borrow to spend more than the current tax structure will support. This type of system contains the seeds of its own destruction since the deficit keeps getting larger until the interest and payments on the debt consumes the entire budget.
January 15, 2009 5:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just because money is fungible does not mean that it isn't track-able. At the individual institutional level, recipients ought to be able to report where TARP money flowed within the institution and then how and when the money left the institution, whether through loans, executive employee compensation, dividend payments, acquisitions, etc.
Sounds like a laptop computer and a spreadsheet ought to be able to take care of that job. Easier to build than a risk model and if the computer is a Mac, much more reliable, too.
January 15, 2009 4:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
It would only be trackable if it were segregated into a separate account in the bank, and then only disbursed out of those accounts for specific end purposes and not commingled with other funds.
Even then, the tracking is artificial, since the money can still be disbursed for purposes which might have been funded out of other accounts had the TARP money not been available.
Total performance of the institution is the only thing that can be evaluated.
January 15, 2009 5:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Total performance is not a scalar, it's a vector.
You can track where capital is used. Recipients of TARP funds should be required to disclose all of their money flows.
January 15, 2009 7:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
The most frightening words in the English Language, 2009:
"I’m from Wall Street and I’m here to help."
January 15, 2009 2:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
A few notes on this:
1. Some of the riskier securities are in fact worthless, and won't find buyers anywhere (In the old days, when such things were issued on pretty paper, they might have gone to collectors). There are leveraged instruments that are deep into margin-call territory, lower tranches of MBS issues where the AAA tranche has already seen hits to capital, and so forth.
2. Even just making mortgage terms alterable in bankruptcy will hell non-bankrupt homeowners, because a) the threat is there and b) mortgage holders will get used to the idea that stupid terms are renegotiable.
3. The "money is fungible" argument only gets used by people who want to avoid accounting for what they did with someone's money. If (and yes, that's a big "if") the banks know where all of their income and capital was being spent (or could legally be spent) before the bailout, then it is perfectly reasonable to attribute any incremental post-bailout expenditures to the bailout money. (The banks were, after all, making optimal allocations of existing resources.)
January 15, 2009 2:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Some of thesw "strings" make sense, but this TARP money is not going to save the economy no matter what happens to it. It is not a big enough amount, for one thing. More importantly, interest rates are not actually "high", except relative to potential profits from investments. The focus should be on correcting the structural problems of the economy (overdependence on oil, consumer junk-goods, financial bubbles, real estate, urban sprawl, and debt). More or cheaper loans won't fix that. The government should invest in education, not pavement, in reducing not increasing carbon consumption, in support of basic science and technology, not in propping up irresponsible over-consumption, over-borrowing, be rewarding basic saving and investing, not reckless financeering, and helping working citizens, not real estate speculators.
January 15, 2009 3:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
There's no way to isolate this money. The banks can always use it to make loans that they would have made anyway. And then say they used it to increase loans.If you want the $350 billion to be loaned then the government is going to have to set up a bank and loan it. Or buy up a
failed bank and use it to further public policy.Anything else is trickle down and we know how that works.
On the other hand if you really think the banks
need to be saved,isn't this the province of the Federal Reserve Board.Why is the government going on budget for this?
Ken Nash
January 15, 2009 5:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Unfortunately, a Chapter 11 would not result in the firing of the banksters (rhymes with gangster) who have mismanaged their banks into insolvency.
In Chapter 11, the company is run by the "Debtor in Possession." That is, management stays on.
Not only that, but they get paid a bonus if they are successful in having a Chapter 11 plan confirmed by the Court.
The Court COULD limit the amounts paid to management. I rather like "Will's Law" (George Will) which states that any company receiving government money does not exceed the amounts paid to the highest paid government employee -- that is we limit them to a GS13 level of pay.
The sale of assets in Chapter 11 would not be a fire sale, as in Chapter 7. In fact, these mortgage backed securities have some value, it's just that no one knows what it is. Not all of the mortgages are in default -- in fact it is a rather small fraction. Moreover, the banks are secured, and the security does have some value. So we are not talking about Confederate money.
It's just that the banksters have been utter morons in dealing with this problem. Why in the world would someone sell a house worth $200,000 for half of that in a fire sale? That's nuts! Wouldn't it just make more sense to hang onto these properties until the market recovers? After all, it was not all that overbuilt. I don't know why anyone thought these morons were worth the exorbitant salaries they were paid.
The underlying problem is that a lot of fraud permeated the system. The people who made the loans were indifferent to whether the borrowers could actually afford the loans. They probably figured that they would be long gone by the time the odoriferous material hit the fan.
There are legal remedies for fraud, and maybe it would behoove some of the geniuses who created the mess to try to recoup some of the losses from the fraudsters. That is, the banks who end up selling these securities for less than their face value have a claim for damages against the mortgage brokers who created these loans.
This is a sizable amount of money, and I am sure that many attorneys would be interested in trying to recoup the losses from the brokers -- even on a contingent fee. In fact, I wonder why the trustees who are so gung-ho to foreclose on properties are not pursuing this.
January 15, 2009 5:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
I like Reich's tough talk. I don't believe he gets it quite right, but it's a good salvo if you believe in having a TARP II.
What concerns me is that TARP had an ostensible purpose. Its purpose was to unfreeze credit markets. Its purpose was NOT to save private institutions or investors. Its purpose was NOT to save the economy. Its purpose was NOT to put assets of dubious value into government hands. Yes, that was one MEANS, but it was ONLY a means not an end.
TARP apparently succeeded in its purpose, credit market metrics say so. Some of the $350B did the trick. But TARP has clearly been abused since then. TARP should be shut down now not used for further abuse.
January 15, 2009 6:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
TARP apparently succeeded in its purpose ("to unfreeze credit markets"), credit market metrics say so. eds
How do you know it was the TARP that did it?
Maybe it was the TAF or the TSLF or the PDCF or the CPFF or the MMIFF or perhaps, the currency swaps the Fed engaged in.
January 15, 2009 8:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Or perhaps, just the slowly growing recognition on the part of lenders that the Treasury and the Fed, post-Lehman (9/15/2008), would not permit any important financial institution, no matter how insolvent it might be, to fail -- and thus, loans, and especially interbank loans, to those institutions were not at risk of not being repaid.
January 15, 2009 8:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
We don't know, thus "apparently". If you read other comments on this topic from me you will see: http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/01/15/what_should_be_done_with_the_next_350_billion_of_t/index.php#comment-3341604 to which you have replied.
January 15, 2009 9:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
We don't know, thus "apparently".
By "apparently" do you mean obviously, evidently, manifestly, patently, plainly, plain, seemingly, ostensibly, or on the face of it?
In the event nothing you've mentioned converts what -- until my Harvard economist publishes her results -- is now, mere "apparent" correspondence or coincidence into causation.
January 15, 2009 10:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
my Harvard economist
This Harvard Economist?
January 16, 2009 3:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
This was already answered in the post to which you replied. Are you a bot?
January 16, 2009 4:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
Great article, great comments. This from 'Merrill' is a gem::
And this from Reich is another gem: Harsh? Maybe. Honest. Almost certainly. Honesty can be a bit scary, but it still beats the hell out of delusional hysterics.So thanks for that.
January 15, 2009 7:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Some interesting Citigroup related stuff:
According to a Reuters article last week, the American Bankers Association (ABA) is mad as hell at Citigroup for joining forces with the government to rewrite bankruptcy foreclosure laws. Known as mortgage 'cram downs', the laws would help homeowners avoid foreclosure by letting bankruptcy judges cut their mortgage debt. The ABA correctly recognizes that Citigroup's about face on this issue is due to the $45b it has received in TARP money.
The weird thing about Citigroup is it is the only one of the receiving banks to be subjected to the FDICs mortgage modification program (other than IndyMac which had already gone under by that time), as of Jan. 9th.
January 15, 2009 7:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Lying bastards.
January 15, 2009 7:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Lying bastards
I am sad to have to inform my one-apprehensive-eye-on-the-sky-casting-piece-of-pulchritudinous-poultry that among said lying *sacks of shit in the Senate who blocked bankruptcy reform (and indeed, who specifically abjured it's attachment to TARP I, was included....(drumroll, please..)
Prez.
Yes, I weep as well.
*(you are more polite than I...)
January 16, 2009 5:31 AM | Reply | Permalink