Ceasefire Now!
It is obvious who is losing the Gaza war. But who is winning?
First the losers. Hamas is losing. It made the mistake of believing its own propaganda about Israelis having lost the determination to fight for their state. For some reason, Hamas decided that the veterans of 1948, 1967, and 1973 had produced cowardly, unpatriotic, and inept descendants. Big mistake.
Hamas is the mouse that roared. Despite all the stored up munitions and its supposedly well-trained fighters, it has not dented the IDF. Israel appears to have a free hand to do whatever it wants in Gaza; only world public opinion seems capable of constraining its actions. And possibly the United Nations Security Council which, with George W. Bush refusing to use his veto on Israel's behalf, passed Resolution 1860, calling for an immediate ceasefire.
But the biggest loser of all is not Hamas (I wish it was), but the people of Gaza. The conservative Israeli daily Ma'ariv quotes "Israeli sources" who say that "of the approximately 550 fatalities in the operation," only 200 "are linked to the warfare by affiliation or by the manner in which they were killed." This means, Ma'ariv reports, that "that the harm to Hamas members . . . is apparently much smaller than the number of unarmed people who were killed."
Anyone who can read about the deaths of hundreds of innocent civilians without flinching needs a heart transplant. Perhaps it is because I have twin 11-month old grandchildren. When I read about a baby boy of just that age who, according to the New York Times, was killed in his high chair while he was banging his little fists in anticipation of his long-deferred breakfast cereal, I am grief struck. His mother's comment: "He died hungry."
The Israelis have also lost. The people of southern Israel have been living in terror for years. Anyone who knows small children understands how little it takes to startle and terrify them. Imagine how they react to the endless crashing of incoming Kassams, which reduce adults to quivering and tears.
Israel has also lost politically. World opinion virulently opposes this war, more strenuously than any Israeli action since the siege of Beirut in 1982. Only in the United States is there significant support. It comes from an administration that will be gone in a few days and from Members of Congress who, when speaking privately, question whether any of this was necessary. The media--led by the New York Times and the Washington Post--supported the war initially, but now have joined the European media in opposition. When Jon Stewart feels comfortable ridiculing Israeli policies on "The Daily Show," and the audience erupts in applause, it is clear what young Americans think about this war.
Even among those who think there was no alternative to war, few are remotely happy about it. They may believe that the war is justifiable, but they hate the idea that Gaza's kids are the victims. On the other hand, they argue, the war could destroy Hamas. Wouldn't that be a good thing? Maybe.
Bringing Hamas to power is one of the most horrific legacies of the Bush administration. In retrospect, the decision to oust Arafat (who had demonstrated the ability to thwart terrorism, and had reduced it to almost zero between 1997 and 2000) was a blunder. The administration's subsequent stingy support for Mahmoud Abbas was incomprehensible and its decision to force the Palestinian elections that brought Hamas to power--and which Israel and Abbas opposed--was about as benighted a foreign policy move as any in history.
Nonetheless, Hamas' possible successors as rulers of Gaza would likely be worse. Forget about the idea of Abu Mazen riding in triumph back into Gaza following the Israeli troops. One, he wouldn't do it. Two, if he did, he would be viewed as an Israeli stooge.
No, Hamas' likely successors would be Al Qaeda--and its allies--which already have cells in Gaza. Hamas and Al Qaeda hate each other for many reasons, most of which are of interest only to students of Islam. The one that matters to us is that Hamas is willing to compromise with its enemies.
Al Qaeda and its ilk are at permanent war with the West, a war which cannot end until either AQ or the infidels are destroyed. Al Qaeda is not fighting for political goals but to create a pan-national Islamic State that would supplant not only Israel but all the Arab states.
Hamas, an offshoot of the Muslim brotherhood, limits its ambitions to achieving a state in Palestine. It believes in compromise, if only as a stop gap. That is why it could sign a ceasefire agreement with Israel and, according to even Israeli sources, observe it until it decided that Israel was not living up to its end of the deal. It has even raised the idea of a 15 or 20 year ceasefire with the Jewish state.
All this is anathema to groups like Al Qaeda, for whom the destruction of the World Trade Center was a triumph--although it advanced no political goals. AQ has none, just as the terrorists in Mumbai killed for killing's sake.
And these are the people who could make Gaza--a few miles miles from Tel Aviv--its ultimate base of operations.
Writing in the London Jewish Chronicle, reporter Jonathan Freedland predicts, "Gaza could become a vacuum, rapidly descending into Somalia, a lawless badland of warlords and clans. . . . And from the rubble of Gaza, the attacks on Israel will surely resume."
He then quotes Mideast expert Rashid Khalidi, "There would be no Hamas leadership--with undeniable discipline over its forces and the pragmatism to see the benefits of a ceasefire--to rein in these new, angry fighters. The great irony is that Israel may well decapitate Hamas--only to regret the passing of a Palestinian administration with sufficient stature to bring order."
That is another reason for a ceasefire now. The first is to stop the killing. The second is to ensure that a year or two from now we are not all wishing that Hamas was still in charge.
After all, who would think that we would miss Arafat?




















Possibly Hezbollah produced better fighters than Hamas, so this might not prove much about the IDF, but only about Hamas's weakness. But if Israel is using its overwhelming firepower advantage to save the lives of its own troops, that could explain why there have been so few IDF casualties and so many civilian dead. Not that I know. We need some objective military experts with access to data to know.
January 9, 2009 2:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here's a military expert's view of the IDF ground forces--
Pat Lang
January 9, 2009 2:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
And a US Marine comments on comparisons between the US military's conduct in Iraq and the IDF's conduct in Gaza.
See http://community.nytimes.com/article/comments/2009/01/08/opinion/08kristof.html?permid=141#comment141
January 9, 2009 3:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
The time for creating peace is here. The time for your prurient war studies is past. Pull your heads out of your juvenile male fantasies and morbid curiosities and put your vaunted minds to work on how to actually bring about the conditions necessary for justice.
January 10, 2009 3:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
I do not want to be bored to tears about Israel/Palestine but I am.
Suggestion : blockade the two sides in together - prevent any aid getting to either of them from anyone outside. Let them sort it out. Turn off the cameras and microphones too.
Outside influence is a main accelerant in that conflict.
January 9, 2009 2:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Living in Israel,
I couldn't agree more...
January 11, 2009 2:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
The first thing that comes to mind as I read this is that old saying, "Be careful what you wish for..." Didn't Israel learn anything when it foolishly encouraged Hamas as an alternative to Arafat?
And I also agree that the Israeli idea that this most recent foray into Gaza will result in strengthening Abbas, so that he can come riding in like a white knight to save the people of Gaza, is simply ridiculous. If you can see that, MJ, and I (hardly a middle east expert) can see it, why can't the Israelis?
That "He died hungry" comment breaks my heart.
January 9, 2009 2:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
re: why can't the Israelis?
I think they can see it, and they either don't care or they think it holds a strategic advantage for them in the future. I cynically believe they operate on two planes. The first is the public story about Abbas saving the Palestinians or stopping rockets from Gaza or whathave you. The other is their intention to keep the Palestinians in the stone ages for all time, perpetual apartheid, of which only the most fervent Zionists will ever admit to publicly. Most Israelis fear a two-state solution, because a truly free Palestinian state would arm itself with the best the world's arms dealers have to offer and it could potentially declare war on Israel. And to accept a one-state solution would mean an end to the Israeli myth about being the only democracy in the Middle East -- it would no longer be a myth but a reality, and the Israelis would lose their beloved Jewish-dominated state.
I believe the longer Israelis refuse to step out of the way and allow a truly sovereign Palestinian state beside Israel, the more likely they are to end up being a minority in the single, heterogeneous country that emerges, whatever that country would be called.
January 9, 2009 2:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
re: it has not dented the IDF
Wow, big surprise there. Now if the West shipped billions a year in money and weapons to the Palestinians, then we might see a different result.
It has nothing to do with people not being "cowardly, unpatriotic, and inept" or people being "well-trained fighters." It has everything to do with heavy weaponry. And for the last 60 years, the world has been arming Israel, even giving it nuclear secrets.
So, sure, Israel has the power to keep the Palestinians under their thumb for another 60 years. Of course, the Palestinians will continue to fight against the apartheid forced on them. The question is, how long will the world allow this injustice to continue?
January 9, 2009 2:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
There is only one 'good thing' to come out of the destruction of Gaza and the killing and maiming of civilians. It is the collective will of millions of people in the world who will not allow Israel to continue its unjust policies.
There is a growing movement called BDS against Israel. Boycott, de-invest and sanctions. There are also millions of Americans who are opposed to the Gaza offensive who are petitioning their elected representatives who do not represent them on this issue.
That's the one 'good thing'
the enormous growing opposition to Israel's policies in the world.
January 9, 2009 2:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Stop using your computer. It was designed in Israel.
January 9, 2009 2:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Stop using your computer. It was designed in Israel"
SholomA - You better stop before you become a laughing stock. Just because Intel has a chip fabrication/design shop in Israel does NOT mean all computers are the result of Israel. As with most of your comments you overstate your case.
January 9, 2009 3:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
That train left the station long ago.
January 9, 2009 3:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
My friends and I --all 100,000 of them plus millions of Evangelicals-- will make the lives of anyone who pushes for "BDS" against America's only democratic ally in the Mideast, a living hell. Trust me. Ask the jerks in England who tried it with an aborted boycott of Israeli academics.
January 9, 2009 3:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Threats like that are a marvelous incentive for people to join the BDS movement. Thanks.
January 9, 2009 3:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
You want to foment religious strife in this country like nothing you have ever witnessed, go right ahead and join the "BDS Movement". Be very careful what you wish for.
January 9, 2009 9:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Unbelievable! You say this:
and yet, in the next breath you're saying,
Do you not see who it is who really wants to "foment religious strife"? (Hint: it's not me!) And my objections to what Israel is doing aren't religious in nature anyway (nor are they ethnic). I see BDS as a last resort, but since nothing else has seemed to work, it's increasingly sounding like a do-able approach.
But I do hope you keep posting here. You're such a good reminder of why the U.S. so desperately needs to change it's approach in the Middle East.
January 10, 2009 3:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Hamas decided that the veterans of 1948, 1967, and 1973 had produced cowardly, unpatriotic, and inept descendants. Big mistake."
The blitz of Gaza was brave? The IDF bombing two UN school shelters and shooting UN truck drivers was brave? The blocking of ambulances was brave? The slaughter of university students after they obeyed the order to leave their building was brave? The friendly fire killing of 4 IDF soldiers was competent?
This offensive does not show IDF in any good light, I'm sorry. Maybe there will be some tales of bravery coming out after the cease fire but I can't imagine any.
January 9, 2009 2:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
One of the other heatbreaking snippets: Israel's offer to allow as much as 15% of necessary aid shipments through in return for surrender.
January 9, 2009 2:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
One of the most depressing things is that the Palestinian people's plight is so severe that Hamas can be seen as a positive response to it. They supply medical care, education, etc and they don't steal. This is true in all the countries where the Muslim Brotherhood is active. This leads many young people in Egypt and Jordan, not just Palestine to think the "Islam is the answer". It is in Egypt and Jordan where Hamas's "last stand" may finally prove most dangerous to Israel's future.
January 9, 2009 2:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
At last! Islam is the least worst alternative to their current regimes. If my only choices were Tony Soprano and Pat Robertson, I might vote for Robertson too.
January 9, 2009 3:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
January 9, 2009 2:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
So they are faking? Delusion is necessary for your guys, I guess.
January 9, 2009 3:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, they're not dead. They're just taking a nap.
January 10, 2009 2:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
really, still manufacturing your own propaganda in your own minds, which, like the previous commenter says, are delusional
it takes a very special holocaust survivor descendant and/or relative to wish a holocaust on other people and justify it with transparent nonsense
congratulations on your moral depravity. it's people like you who give the rest of us Jews a bad name
January 10, 2009 4:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
This is so obviously a SHADOW GOVERNMENT situation. I remember reading about that "Bohemian Groove" place and thinking that they wree partially ressponsible for all of this stuff in Israel. Something about Jews infiltrating the ranks of the elite. I can't be sure though.
January 9, 2009 2:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, those Palestinian con artists, damn them. Living the high life and pretending they got it bad. Just look at all those cans of food, greedy bastards. What do they expect, fresh food? Dream on.
You know, I don't usually call names in comment threads, but you're just a dick.
January 9, 2009 2:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
As awful as this may sound the is a PR side to every war/conflict.
We had it on our side initially in Afghanistan not so much any more. We never had it in Iraq. And about one hour into the Gaza conflict Israel didn't have it on their side either. This may be the conflict that finally turns so much public opinion against Israel as to force them to the table. There is also the cynic in me that says maybe Hamas knows this and doing less to get civilians out of harms way than they could.
January 9, 2009 2:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
They are not doing less to get civilians out of harms way, they are doing everything they can to get civilians in harms way.
January 9, 2009 3:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
They can't leave. I nominate you for today's "Worst Person in the World."
January 9, 2009 3:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Fair enough. I did say it was the cynic in me. And I should have added - if it was it even possible to get them out of harms way
January 9, 2009 3:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
MJ says: "Nonetheless, Hamas' possible successors as rulers of Gaza would likely be worse. Forget about the idea of Abu Mazen riding in triumph back into Gaza following the Israeli troops. One, he wouldn't do it. Two, if he did, he would be viewed as an Israeli stooge."
Sadly, he is a stooge. Had he cared more about Palestine than Fatah, he never would have tried to overturn the elections Fatah lost in 2006. He would have worked the neighborhoods and asked, like any real politician, "How can I make our party relevant?" But he was more concerned about Condi's opinion of him than his own peoples' opinion of him. (That is the defining characteristic of a stooge.)
Other losers: Mubarek and Saudi Arabia. Egypt just ceded leadership of the Arab world to Syria. Mission accomplished, Hosni!
January 9, 2009 3:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
I sort of agree, but it bears mentioning that those elections were the result of U.S. meddling. Abbas had told the U.S. that he was not ready for elections, but the U.S. insisted on holding them. In several precincts, Hamas put up only one candidate while Fatah ran two, thus splitting the vote. Fatah clearly really wasn't ready and we have ourselves to thank for the Hamas' victory. I can't help but think Abbas may have been acting with U.S. encouragement when he protested the elections. Yet, what would you have him do? He appears to be sincere about wanting peace, but repeatedly has been put in a no-win position by his supposed allies.
He may be a stooge, but I see him more as caught between a rock and a hard place.
January 9, 2009 3:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think the neocons and rightest likudnik Sharansky who convinced Bush to force those elections were aware of the outcome. Having Hamas as the government would really mean that Israel had no one to talk to, and they could expand the West Bank settlements even more vigorously.
January 9, 2009 6:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sadly, I think you're probably right. Bush apparently has a very high IQ (I remember reading in the 2004 election that it was higher than John Kerry's, although you'd never know it), but despite that, he appears to have very poor analytical skills and relies instead on emotion and intuition to make decisions. That made him very suceptible to outside influence. I don't think he's ever grasped what's really going on in the middle east.
January 10, 2009 3:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
"It comes from an administration that will be gone in a few days and from Members of Congress who, when speaking privately, question whether any of this was necessary."
Every time you say something this, Mr. Rosenberg, I intend to call you a liar unless you can name at least two Members "who speaking privately, question whether any of this was necessary."
You have two hours to give us the names.
January 9, 2009 3:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Speak for yourself, I believe MJ.
They spoke to him privately, like 'off the record' so their names will not be given to you. And if you call him a 'liar' it will be considered an abusive comment.
January 9, 2009 7:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Please go to Ramallah where you belong. M. J. Rosenberg lies through his teeth and if you want to believe liars, you will find plenty of them there.
January 9, 2009 9:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Rosenberg is not a liar, but I'd still rather follow a liar than a fool like you
January 10, 2009 4:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
January 9, 2009 3:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hamas IS Al-Queda, with more limited aims. M.J.'s argument that Hamas believes in compromise misses the point. Yes, we can have a cease fire now, but Hamas will merely import more weapons and the carnage will increase exponentially in the next conflict. This is why Obama hasn't spoken out. He would prefer to deal with a Hamas weakened by military action and an Israel weakened by negative world opinion, but let the killing happen on Bush's watch. As far as the kid who died hungry, would it really make you feel better if the kid had just finished his cream of wheat when the Israeli shell killed him?
January 9, 2009 3:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
MJ:
So the second reason for a ceasefire is to save Hamas' rule of terror in Gaza, because a successor to it might be even worse? I don't think that argument would persuade many Israelis (or Arabs for that matter). My guess is Israel would take that chance, as long as the flow of rockets and weapons to Gaza would stop.
From http://haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1054220.html:
Perhaps this is the reason why the killings will continue until a verifiable ceasefire proposal, which prevents Hamas rearming itself, will emerge (I hope very soon).
January 9, 2009 3:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
January 9, 2009 3:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
From Powerline: "Arab sources in Gaza confided that the public anger is not directed at Israel any more than it is at Hamas. Al Jazeera, doing a superb job as PR agents for Iran's proxies, likely wanted to avoid risking those types of reactions from the battlefield."
Sure. They Palestinians blame themselves, but the Arab media's covering it up. THAT must be why Israel won't let any media in, they're trying to protect the Gazans from humiliating themselves.
SholomA, your posts don't persuade me to your cause. Israel's actions speak for themselves, and the worst of the story is yet to come.
January 9, 2009 3:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
But Sholom (formerly Boris?) serves a good purpose here -- he a window into the Iraeli soul. This is what they are saying to each other. I think this is important for Americans to know; we will never be able to extract ourselves from their interminable war until we realize how they really think.
January 9, 2009 6:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
http://www.commentarymagazine.com/blogs/index.php/thayer/49811
A Statistical Improbability
J.G. Thayer - 01.09.2009 - 2:45 PM
Meryl Yourish has a fascinating study on what seems to be a tremendously unlikely statistical aberration. It seems that since Hamas started using the Grad rocket, it has been able to hit an increasing number of Israeli schools.
Yourish speculates that Hamas is deliberately targeting these schools, and presents a damning circumstantial case supporting her claim.
It could theoretically be a coincidence that Hamas’s low-precision rockets have recently been landing on Israeli schools, but in any case, no one is up for discussing it all, even in light of Israel hitting a school in Gaza that was being used as a mortar firing position.
Hamas isn’t stating that it’s deliberately targeting schools, so there is a certain amount of plausible deniability, but even if they boasted of their responsibility from the rooftops, it’s highly unlikely that most of the world would pay any attention. After all, how often do you hear about Hamas’s charter, which explicitly calls for the extermination of the state of Israel and its replacement with an Islamist regime?
It’s simple: Palestinian atrocities simply don’t matter. It’s partly because the world sees the Palestinians as uncivilized savages, and you simply can’t expect any better from them. It’s partly because the atrocities are primarily targeted against Jews, and that’s not that not a big deal for a good portion of the world. Hamas attacks not aimed aimed at Jews are aimed at fellow Palestinians and, as noted, people have stopped expecting better of them.
In the meantime, rockets continue to fall on Israeli schools.
And most of the world is untroubled.
January 9, 2009 4:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
It could theoretically be a coincidence that Hamas’s low-precision rockets have recently been landing on Israeli schools
It is not a coincidence. Clearly, those Hamas btards have mastered the art of turning low-precision rockets into high precision missiles. My guess is that Hamas could place a missile directly up SholomA's rectum even while he is hunkered down in his parent's basement, munching on Cheetos and surfing for penis enlargement pills. It is only through the good graces of Hamas that SholomA is still alive.
It’s partly because the world sees the Palestinians as uncivilized savages, and you simply can’t expect any better from them.
Projection: "The attribution of one's own attitudes, feelings, or suppositions to others".
January 9, 2009 5:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yashir Koach to you, SholomA, for indefatigably speaking truth to so much nonsense.
January 9, 2009 9:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
You are my fellow Jews, you and SholomA, but it is you "civilized" savages who will ultimately bring the world down on Israel's head someday by your blatant self-delusion and your blind spot to Israel's own genocidal actions.
January 10, 2009 4:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
It's sad. The Jewish right are going to produce the death of one of the most wonderful, open, liberal, secular cultures in the world: the Israel of Tel Aviv, Haifa, etc.
In their pathological attachment to illegal settlements, ancient tombs and crumbling walls, they will happily see the good Israel crushed.
January 10, 2009 11:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
The worst enemy of the Jewish people is not pathetic Hamas, but the Jewish crazies (some of whom populate this site) who, sadly, have suffered a delayed Stockholm Syndrome as a result of the holocaust.
January 10, 2009 11:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
Mr. Rosenberg, thank you so much for this post. Those of us who love Israel--particularly the culture that you describe in your post of 11:49 a.m. today--but who see this unleashing of bloodshed in Gaza as all but criminal are in despair. (Even the Wall Street Journal ran a column today describing what's going on as something akin to war crimes.) It is a volatile topic, with many scared to speak about it in this country, and your sensible but pointed comments are exactly what we need to hear more of. Thank you again.
January 10, 2009 2:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Jewish crazies (some of whom populate this site) who, sadly, have suffered a delayed Stockholm Syndrome as a result of the holocaust.
Me, I would substitute "induced in themselves, by dint of great effort a delayed Stockholm Syndrome..."
What makes them so funny and sad is how obviously their problem is self-hatred.
And then there's me. Anti-semitism has shattered my syntax.
January 10, 2009 3:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
M.J.--
I generally agree with and like your writing. But in this instance, you haven't gone far enough. You're looking at Hamas "losing" only from the physical, infrastructure, mortality figures. Those don't matter, in the grand scheme. All that matters in the long-run is politics, and Israel has f'd up badly.
I find myself for the first time thinking that it was a mistake to have created an Israel in the first place, in the 1940s. And that a Jewish Israel will not survive another 40 years. Did the creation of a religious-based, nation-based (late 18th-c view of nation-hood) Israel inevitably lead to Muslim-based regimes throughout the rest of the Middle East? Was that a good thing, for the world?
I'm fed up with Israel.
January 11, 2009 1:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
THANK YOU M.J. for focusing so intently on this situation.
I can't but help remember the year leading up to 9-11 and the degree to which the Israeli government was stomping all over the East Bank. One had the distinct feeling of dread that there would be retribution directed at the United States.
If al Qaeda ever manages to detonate a nuclear device in America, it will be blowback, a result of policies and attitudes practiced by both the Bush II administration and, sad to say, the incipient new one as well.
January 11, 2009 7:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why do you think that Hamas is losing? Yes, in military terms, but are they losing politically? Hamas's standing among Europeans (Angela Merkel excepted) is skyrocketing. Do Palestinians blame them or Israel for the loss of life? If they blame Israel primarily, then Hamas wins.
January 12, 2009 11:54 AM | Reply | Permalink