Is Obama's Stimulus Plan Missing Something?
Most of the current discussion regarding the Obama Economic Plan focuses on whether the fiscal stimulus should be somewhat larger or smaller ($650-800bn seems the current range) and the composition between spending and tax cuts. President Obama stressed on Tuesday that trillion dollar deficits are here to stay for several years, and it looks like part of the arguing in the Senate will be about whether this is a good idea.
There is at least one key question currently missing from this debate. Is this Plan too much about a fiscal stimulus and too little about the other pieces that would help - and might even be essential - for a sustained recovery? The fiscal stimulus may be roughly the right size (and $100bn more or less is unlikely to make a critical difference), but perhaps we should also be looking for more detail on the following:
1. Recapitalizing banks. Their losses to date have not been replaced by new capital and it is currently not possible to issue new equity in the private markets. If you think we can get back to growth without fixing banks, check Japan's record in the 1990s.
2. Directly addressing housing problems, including moving to limit foreclosures and reduce the forced sales that follow foreclosures. There is apparently some form of the Hubbard-Mayer proposal waiting in the wings, but we don't know exactly what - and this matters, among other things, for thinking about the debt sustainability implications of the overall Plan.
3. Finding ways to push up inflation, presumably by being more aggressive with monetary policy. Deflation is looming - according to the financial markets, despite all of the Fed's moves and recent statements, prices will fall or be flat over the next 3 to 5 years. This fall in inflation, from its previous expected level around 2 percent per year, constitutes a big transfer from borrowers/spenders to net lenders/savers. The contractionary effect is likely to outweigh any fiscal stimulus that is politically feasible or economically sound. (We have more detail on this point on WSJ.com today, linked here.)
So perhaps the issue is not the absolute size or composition of the fiscal stimulus, but rather the role of the fiscal stimulus relative to other parts of the Plan. Hopefully, it's a more evenly weighted package, and just we haven't yet seen the details. Still, it's odd that the presence and general contours of these other important elements have not yet been clearly flagged.















The Fed should announce that it will create inflation in 2009, i.e., it will do whatever it takes to make sure that wages and prices rise, rather than fall, in the next 12 months. Peter Boone and Simon Johnson
Don't you love people who have no idea what it will take telling other people to do whatever it takes?
January 7, 2009 3:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
These are some really bad suggestions.
1. Recapitalizing banks. Their losses to date have not been replaced by new capital and it is currently not possible to issue new equity in the private markets.
Isn't that where $350 billion in tarp funds were spent. Guess what? That money is not being lent out. And for good reason. The crisis in credit is basically that the banks lent their money to too many people who now cannot pay it back. So now you think the solution to the problem is to give the banks even more money so they can lend it out to people who won't be able to pay it back either. At least the banks are being sensible in not loaning out their tarp bonanza.
2. Directly addressing housing problems, including moving to limit foreclosures and reduce the forced sales that follow foreclosures.
This will be nice to those people who borrowed more than they can pay back. But how is this going to solve a problem that is caused by the inability of people to pay their loans?
3. Finding ways to push up inflation, presumably by being more aggressive with monetary policy. Deflation is looming -
This might make some economic sense. But if this is done, we should acknowledge up front that it is designed to punish those who saved money and reward those who took out loans that they could not pay back. I guess this qualifies as a moral hazard.
January 7, 2009 5:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is Obama's Stimulus Plan Missing Something?
Yes.
January 7, 2009 8:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is Obama's Stimulus Plan Missing Something?
Sure is, but Congress will fix it.
January 8, 2009 7:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
Name one thing Congress has "fixed" since the Democrats took over in January of 2007 - two years now.
Health care?
Social Security?
Torture?
Renditions?
Iraq?
Iran?
Israel?
Afghanistan?
North Korea?
Somalia?
Trade deficit?
Financials?
National Debt?
Guantanimo?
I understand it is "hard work" being a member of Congress.
.
January 9, 2009 8:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
Sorry, I omitted the emoticon from my post. Please insert
;>
at the end of my post.
January 9, 2009 10:17 AM | Reply | Permalink