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Watching Death Day and Night So Close By. . .

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I have just been communicating in the last few minutes with two friends over Facebook -- one a prominent Jewish American blogger now visiting family in an Orthodox community in Israel -- and the other a prominent Arab Muslim blogger living in the Middle East. I don't want to disclose the identities of either.

But my friend in Israel asked me for some help on shaping questions that he might pose to various Israel pols.

I shared with him some of my thoughts on what he could ask. . .particularly the question of how Israel views long term US support.

I told him that in my view America's increasingly consequential failures to generate stability in the Middle East is like an eroding levee in New Orleans -- and those levees at some point are going to fail leaving Israel quite vulnerable unless Israel and other stakeholding neighbors achieve a different equilibrium in the region. . .and soon. There is great doubt around the world in the ability of America to pursue and achieve its objectives -- and this doubt has consequences for Israel's national security calculus, whether it is acknowledging it or not.

This friend is not far from the action in Gaza, and he has serious doubts about Israel's course.

I give him a lot of credit for trying to think this through, particularly given the hawkishness of many around whom he is living right now.

And from my Arabic blogging friend, I received this note -- and I should add that this guy is about as positive about "modernity" as one can find in Middle East blogging circles:

Happy new year Steve .. :)

though GAZA is making this new year very sad for us here .. but i'll try to smile whenever i can ..

i might stop blogging until the war finishes .. it is really hard watching death day and night so close by ..

any way ..

how are the 1st world countries doing ? :)

I agree with Zbigniew Brzezinski that the worsening tragedy in Gaza is part of the blur we have been seeing for some time. I put a lot of the blame on Labor Party Leader and Defense Minister Ehud Barak who has been itching to manage a war.

But as Brzezinski said, the Israelis and Palestinians have proven unable to rise to a level of strategic, forward-looking maturity to solve this problem and others now need to stabilize the situation, engage in a credible peace negotiation process that involves the other major Arab stakeholders, the US and Europe.

Having the Saudis, Jordanians, Egyptians, Americans, and Europeans impose a solution can't be worse than what we are seeing today.

-- Steve Clemons publishes the popular political blog, The Washington Note


52 Comments

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The US has obviously not been able to solve the problem. Neither Israel or its opponents appear to be the least bit serious about solving the problem. Maybe we should stop pretending that we can solve the problem and it might sink in with Israel and the Arabs that they're going to have to solve the problems themselves.

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People learn responsibility by having to exercise it. I suspect that is true for nations too. Israel has never had to be responsible for their actions, always knowing that Uncle Sam will stand behind them no matter what they do. It is long past time for that to change.

I know from experience that if you never allow a budding teenager to exercise responsibility for his/her actions, eventually you have a serious problem underway with very few options for handling it. I see Israel as such an older teen.

This is not to absolve the Palestinians of their own responsibilities. They, too, need to learn how to be responsible, but part of that is to experience a good result from actions that are good choices. Palestinians have had very little chance to do that.

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Not only must responsibility come into play, fear has to be dealt with because abject fear - and there's plenty of it on both sides - kills reason. For too many years the behavior of both sides clearly shows that reason left the scene a long time ago.

(A recent study posed the question why do uninjured people die immediately after a crash or other disasters? It was determined that the mind is unable to focus, its ability to focus deteriorates in survival situations when sound decision making is essential. As a result, the initially uninjured end up doing the wrong thing and cause their own demise.)

Israel is surrounded by hostile nations seemingly ready to pounce first chance they get. Palestinian's survival, in their eyes, is threatened almost daily, not necessarily from rockets or bombs, but from sheer poverty, loss of home and livelihood.

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Hear hear.

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I think the comparison to the New Orleans levees is both chilling and apt. Israel is reliant on us at a time when we are not, to put it delicately, at our most effective. Maybe the realization that because of our other military commitments we can't save the day will spur Israel's government to rethink the urgency of finding a peaceful solution. One can hope. And it's time to get the rest of the international community more involved because the US can't do this alone.

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Sounds like someone waving his hands about, destor23.

What's the "urgency"? at least from Israel's point of view.

Gaza's a military exercise. The IDF showed itself incompetent in 2006. Since that sorry display it's been revamped and retrained. Enough practicing, though; time to test it on "game day."

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Gaza -- a military exercise with live fire!

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What's the "urgency"?

Perhaps this is the reason:

"Netanyahu says:" Jew balls too small"

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More ultras!

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That man is a happy recipient of his AIPAC Testosterone Patch Kit.

His wife, maybe not so much....

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I agree that the levees are ready to break. Israel has encouraged such hatred amongst its neighbors that, as US power declines, the Jewish state is in greater danger than ever. Edwin Samuel Montagu was right, back when the Balfour resolution was originally being debated: Zionism is anti-semitism. Israel is committing suicide while taking hundreds of Gaza Palestinians with it.

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Perhaps rather than simply turning a blind eye and letting things unravel to the point where Israelis feel compelled on their own to act right, we prompt them with some pro-active measures such as cutting, or seriously curtailing, the money and weapons we send them every year.

It worked the last time we got serious about it, back when Pappa Bush began pulling back on the free money we send to Israel every year. That was the last time we saw serious progress on settlement occur, and it was undone when Clinton and Bush the Shrub began sending money that way with no strings attached.

It worked when the world got serious and divested from South Africa, and it can work again.

In the meantime, as long as we send cash and weapons, we have a moral obligation to intervene.

How long can the Left look away without taking real action?

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There are more Jews living in the United States than in Israel. It is time for them to stand up for interests of the United States, support a moderate compromise two-state solution and tell AIPAC and its ilk to go to the hell the creation of which they are supporting in the Mideast. It will be still be hellish over there and America will be condemned by both sides for its pains, but most people in most countries in the rest of the world will support us, at least to the extent that the idiocies of Cheney and W. Bush haven't turned them into permanent enemies. Then we can focus on some real serious problems rather than constantly being pulled to be a lap dog for one side only in a centuries-old feud over a small patch of far-off desert.

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Are you saying that American Jews don't stand up for interests of the United States yet but should?

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The U.S. Congress has become an international laughing stock because so many of its members spout slick but ultimately nonsensical AIPAC etc. talking points pretending, using various deceits and half-truths, that the decades-old and incredibly complex Israeli-Palestinian conflict is entirely the fault of Palestinian terrorists. If more Jews in America stood up to denounce this absurd affront to the intelligence of Americans -there have been some good examples on this website- it would benefit almost everyone except the hardcore Israeli settler movement which is the functional equivalent to Palestinian terrorists, but in recent years has nonetheless managed to effectively hijack the lobbying for Israel in the US. The Israeli lunatic fringe is not as ruthless as the Palestinian, in large part because it has an organized state military to do its killing for it, but its ideology and goals are as far away the interests of the U.S.'s as are Hamas' objectives. Obama probably knows this, and hopefully will act on it, but he will have a lot of other messes to work on when he takes office and American citizens Jewish, Gentile, Whatever, should not wait for him to speak out on their own.

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Are you saying that American Jews don't stand up for interests of the United States yet but should?

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When it comes to the subject of Israel, American Jews stand up for the interests of Israel.

They've convinced themselves that these always overlap precisely with America's interests so they can rationalize it. I disagree that our interests always overlap.

In fact, from a real politick angle, it's tough to see what we get from our relationship with Israel at all. Frankly from a strategic standpoint, if the U.S.'s number one threat is terrorism, it would make sense to not antagonize the arab world by being so lock-step with Israel. Tough but true.

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http://www.commentarymagazine.com/blogs/index.php/pollak/48881

Nobody knows at this moment whether Hamas is deterrable. The question depends on whether Hamas actually intends to fight to the last man and on the efficacy of the IDF’s ground war. But surely it is also true — according to just war theory, no less — that the sovereign state of Israel, in an attempt to protect its citizens, is allowed to discover whether deterrence is possible. I note that since August 2006, Hezbollah has been awfully quiet on Israel’s northern border; and that since 1973, so have Syria and Egypt.

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Hezbollah has been quiet, basking its success of having prevented the IDF from achieving ANY of its objectives in 2006, and extensively rebuilding its stock of weaponry. Olmert almost lost his job over that disaster and is now trying to distract attention from that blot on his reputation by slaughtering some Palestinians. Try reading something other than third-rate blogs of Likudnik rags like Commentary (once a decent publication before neo-con hacks got their hands on it).

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How long are they going to be quiet? I don't mind if after this war Hamas is going to be quiet, basking its success.

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http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1052362.html

Hezbollah has no interest in opening military front with Israel in light of Gaza op, sources say

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"Hezbollah has been quiet, basking its success of having prevented the IDF from achieving ANY of its objectives in 2006, and extensively rebuilding its stock of weaponry"


It can bask in whatever it wants and you could continue saying that the IDF failed in achieving any of its objectives but the bottom line remains that the north has been quiet. Not 1 rocket since. And that doesnt look to change anytime soon. To most Israelis this is enough.

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My, how existential fear and blind loyalty can disable the logical ability of the brain.

No doubt, SholomA and lh25, if you were German, you could "note" that France has been "mighty quiet" on its border with Germany since 1945. "Bottom line": not one World War since then. What a fantastic success was Ehud Hitler's policy of "deterrence."

If yours is in fact the twisted paranoia of "most Israelis" (which I sincerely doubt) then Israel is truly too moronic to merit support of other countries. Speaking of moronic, maybe that is why the most incompetent US president of the last 80 years (at least) has been by far the most stupidly one-sided when it comes to the Mideast.

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Are your writings a good example of "the logical ability of the brain"?

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huh? i dont even know what you are talking about.

You said Israel failed to achieve ANY of its objectives. I said Israelis feel, despite what you say, that 0 rockets from Hizbullah in the past 2 years is enough and that Hizbullah could bask in whatever it wants - why you feel the need to bring Germany up and compare Olmert to Hitler as a response i dont know. But if it means you see Israel as Nazi Germany then it is indeed true that we have nothing to talk about...

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I am making no comparison between Israel and Germany except in the sense (clear to any careful and fair-minded reading of my prior comment, lh) that Olmert and Hitler were both disasters for their countries, and the fact that France has not had to fight Germany again since '45 nor Hezbollah Israel since '06 is no indication whatever of Olmert or Hitler (or Jefferson Davis or Saddam Hussein or any other disastrously defeated historical loser) having been successful with their idiocies.

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Outside of Gaza and Palestine Zionist Jewish criminals

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Outside of Gaza and Palestine Zionist Jewish criminals

And this means what??

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"But my friend in Israel asked me for some help on shaping questions that he might pose to various Israel pols."

My question would be: How specifically do you see this ending between you and the Palestinians?

I think they've lost the answer to that question, if they ever had one. As an outside observer, it's totally lost on me how Israel plans to do anything other than run these police-state ghettos, filled with millions of impoverished and hopeless people, indefinitely.

Tragic that the Jewish dream of self-determination has ended this way, but perhaps predictable.

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What happened to MJ Rosenberg's post? Is it just me, or am I missing current blog entries since Mr. Clemons'?

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Me too. Not sure what happened.

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As usual. He wrote something foolish and then he had second thoughts about embarrassing himself.

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Is this the disappeared one?


[Israeli Leader: If Israelis Were Stateless, They Would Behave Like Stateless Palestinians
January 3, 2009, 9:34PM

Thank God for Ha'aretz. It publishes thoughts that are banned here. Like this one by Yossi Sarid, the former head of the Meretz Party, and a life-long player in Israeli politics.

He writes in Ha'aretz: "This week I spoke with my students about the Gaza war, in the context of a class on national security. One student, who had expressed rather conservative, accepted opinions - that is opinions tending slightly to the right - succeeded in surprising me. Without any provocation on my part, he opened his heart and confessed: 'If I were a young Palestinian,'he said, "I'd fight the Jews fiercely, even by means of terror. Anyone who says anything different is telling you lies."

"His remarks sounded familiar - I had already heard them before. Suddenly I remembered: About 10 years ago they were uttered by our defense minister, Ehud Barak. Haaretz journalist Gideon Levy had asked him then, as a candidate for prime minister, what he would do had he been born Palestinian and Barak replied frankly: "I would join a terror organization."

I agree with Sarid. I oppose the killing of innocent people no matter what the rationalization, no matter by whom. I feel that doubly if the victims are kids. But the argument Sarid cites is right on. Worth a read.]

????? Given MJ's MO, this blog post seems uncontroversial.

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Another Cafe curiosity.....

Jim Sleeper's post shows 23 replies but only 13 are visible.

???????

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why don't you guys get it? you can't negotiate with someone who has sworn to destroy you. why is this so difficult for you to understand?

yeah, let's all feel really bad for the innocent Palestinians. you know the ones: the same people who celebrated in the streets after 9/11...the same people who when given the ability to elect someone decided to elect a terrorist group to lead them...the same people who have happily shelled Israel for years and now are shocked, shocked to discover that Israel's gonna shell'em back.

if Palestine wants to join the grown-up world, let them announce that they do NOT wish the destruction of Israel. then we can talk. until then, screw'em. seriously.

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"why don't you guys get it?"

Is that why Israel is in the same position it's been in for the last 60 years? Because it "gets it" so well? Because it seems to me that Israel has no clue how to change its situation. That it doesn't have any more answers than anyone else.

Welcome back to Gaza, gretz! Congratulations, it's all yours. Enjoy! I'm sure a new occupation will solve all of Israel's problems.

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At Haaretz, Gideon Levy speaks truth to power: "Everything is permitted, legitimate and just. The moral voice of restraint, if it ever existed, has been left behind....Nobody is coming to the rescue -- of Gaza or even of the remnants of humanity and Israeli democracy. The statesmen, the jurists, the poets, the authors, academe, and the news media -- pitch black over the abyss."

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Israel didn't want to reoccupy Gaza. even tpm readers can probably remember that Israel left Gaza to the Palestinians once already--Palestinians who instead of building a nation decided to spend their time and money bombing Israel.

30 years ago, I had major arguments with my mother about the Middle East conflict. I told her that the Palestinians had every right to have a state and that Israel should leave them alone. she disagreed. 30 years of craziness later, I have to admit: Mom, if you're reading this in heaven...you were right.

Islamic radicals don't want peace, they want to destroy infidels. that's you and me, kids--yes, even you good liberal lefties! do you really think that if Israel said "here, take as much land as you want!" there would be no more Islamic violence? get real.

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What's your end solution, gretz? Maintaining the Palestinian ghettos indefinitely, or good old fashion ethnic cleansing?

Fess up. What'll it be?

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Let us not speak ill of the deceased, but marbles do tend to come loose late in life, Gretz. Despite your irrelevant pretense, nobody here is claiming that if Israel stops shooting itself in the foot, and Israelomaniacs in the US stop trying to brainwash other Americans (e.g. if America gets a president able to deal effectively in foreign policy and if Israel lets Palestinians have a state) that thereafter there would be "no more Islamic violence." Just as no one in 1948 could have claimed with a straight face that if Zionist terrorists were given a state that there would ever after be no more Jewish violence in the Mideast. Let your Mama rest in peace. Think of Rabin's widow instead.

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You are losing your mind.

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look, it's really simple:

Israel was made a Jewish state in 1948 by the UN. it happened. Israel exists. you may not like it, but it's the reality of the situation. and despite what Iran and Hamas would like, it's not going away.

now we can either choose to deal with that reality, or we can pretend it ISN'T reality and claim that the Jews are "occupying" Palestinian land.

for the poor schmuck above who asked me about ethnic cleansing, let me just say that if that's what the Israelis are trying to do, they're really really bad at it! they called civilians before the fight, fachrissakes, to warn them to get out of danger. if your goal is to murder people, that's a really stupid way of going about it.

all the Palestinians have to do is decide that they'd rather have their own state alongside Israel than continue this ridiculous war forever. that's all. Israel exists. Palestine can exist too. it's their choice.

but as they say, the Palestinians never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity. that's never been clearer than now, as Hamas idiotically continues to fire their cut-rate rockets into Sderot.

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Wow. So Palestinians actually have all the power! How could I have made the mistake of thinking that Israel holds overwhelming power in this situation? How could I be so blind?

Israel was formed by the U.N. in New York in 1948. Unfortunately there were lots of people living there at the time. I agree they won't give up and accept Israel. Why would they?

So again I ask you, maintain the ghettos forever or ethnic cleansing? You seem to have rejected the latter, so you must conclude that Israel will maintain the occupation, and physical/economic domination of the Palestinians indefinitely.

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Thank you, gretz, for speaking to truth to self-righteous idiocy.

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to warn them to get out of danger

Alas, Cousin Gretz appears to have conflated "ethnic cleansing" (Sweet Blood of the Precious Baby Jesus, that cleansing thing makes me feel a shadow on my grave...) and flat out extirmination.

For your convenience, landsman

Ethnic Cleansing:Deir Yassin et sequellae Kill a few, motivate the exit of the rest. It worked for about 750,000, I understand.

Extirmination:Shoah.

Get it?

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I agree that Palestinians never missed an opportunity to miss an opportunity. Lately, however, Israelis seemed determined to match them, blunder for blunder. Latest missed opportunity was to declare victory after achieving a kill ratio of circa 400 to 4 killings two days ago. These two groups of hypocrite killers (Israeli government, Hamas) deserve each other. The US of A needs to stop tolerating the pitifully repetitive propaganda flung at it from both sides. The US Congress needs to represent AMERICA in this mess, for a change.

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The Congess represents America on I-P issues: 95% of the country doesn't give a damn as long as U.S. troops aren't involved, and the 5% who do split 65-35 for Israel. That's why my good friends--all liberal Democratic Members of the House and Senate from Barbara Mikulsky to Jerry Nadler to Nita Lowey to Steve Rothman to Dick Durbin to Robert Melendez to Rosa DeLauro--everyone of them thinks people like you are idiots.

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Interesting point, Sage, except for the nonsense part suggesting that sane Congresspersons BEHAVING like idiots actually believe that those behaving sanely ARE idiots.

It is time now for all Americans of common sense and civic-mindedness to help reduce that 95%, and time for farsighted and intelligent Jews who are loyal US citizens to help reduce the 65 fraction of the 65/35 split. We have had some good examples on this TPM blogsite. We need more. Thanks to the searing incompetence of GW Bush, and his lapdog service to AIPAC, we are likely to get them.

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Sens. Harry Reid and Dick Durbin - the top two Democrats in the chamber - and Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell all described Israel's actions as understandable.

"I think what the Israelis are doing is very important," Reid said. "I think this terrorist organization, Hamas, has got to be put away. They've got to come to their senses."

Meet the Press 1/4/09

Attention all Israel-haters: my friends and I will use eevery lawful means to keep you from hijacking the Democratic Party. Barack Obama will not cross Dick Durbin on this--trust me.

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Thanks for the update, a(i)pacman.

Glad to know that Dick Durbin will control the President of the United States of America.

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Who's aipacman?

Don't be simplistic. Dick Durbin won't control Obama, but Dick Durbin and Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer and the Presient's really good friend, Penny Pritzker, aslong with rahm will make sure the President knows what happened in 1980 when one of his predecessors tried to cross us.

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Mr. Clemons, please answer this: if Hamas leaders had come to the U.N. in 2007 and said "We hate Israel and we'll never have diplomatic relations with it, but we'll make sure nobody in Gaza attacks it, and we won't try to smuggle in from Egypt thousands of rocket launchers and munitions, but we do seek international help to allow goods in for civilian use, would we be having this dialogue right now?

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