Why Did We Have a Golden Age?

Paul Krugman provides 4 plausible factors for the early postwar success: pent-up demand, baby boom, moderate inflation, and big government. To these I would add (again, in no particular order):
5. High wage/high consumption bias: strong unions pushed up wages, allowing growing domestic consumption based on income (not debt); this also promoted labor-saving innovation, technological advance, and all of that good stuff.
6. High government debt ratios/low private debt: we emerged from WWII with private balance sheets stuffed full of very safe government debt; in Minsky's terminology we had a "robust" financial sector with highly liquid assets (note this also is related to Paul's "pent-up demand" point).
7. External markets for US output: thanks to the Marshall Plan that provided the financial where-with-all to purchase US exports (as well as some destruction of productive capacity in war-torn Europe and Japan), the US could sell abroad.
8. Government spending "ratchet": government spending grew faster than GDP, supplementing private sector demand and thereby keeping labor, plant, and equipment operating near to full capacity.
No doubt there are other factors, but these will allow me to make several relevant points. While much of the postwar "Keynesian" policy tried to push private investment (tax credits for saving and investing), some economists (Domar, Minsky, Vatter & Walker) long recognized that this is problematic for several reasons that I can only briefly summarize here. First, it tends to introduce inflationary pressures, since at the aggregate level prices of consumer goods must be marked-up over the wage bill required to produce those goods so that the workers that produced them cannot consume all of them--this leaves consumption goods for workers (and others) in other sectors to consume. Second, it tends to promote inequality since wages and profits in the investment sector are higher due to greater economic power (of unions and firms). Third, it creates excessive productive capacity unless demand rises sufficiently (with capital-saving innovations, it is likely that the supply side effects of investment outstrip the demand side effects--leaving capital idle and depressing demand). Finally, as emphasized by Minsky, modern investment goods are expensive and long-lived, requiring complex financial instruments and relations. This is related to the point I made in my previous blog: investment-fueled economic growth will at the same time tend to produce growing private debt ratios that increase financial fragility. For this reason, Minsky always argued that government-spending-led growth is more sustainable because it allows private sector spending to grow based on income rather than private debt.
We now see why the four factors I listed above are interrelated. As Paul Krugman has argued, it was the hot war of WWII plus the cold war that followed that ended the depression and set the stage for the "Golden Age". The government deficit reached 25% of GDP during the war, providing the massive amount of private sector saving in the form of safe financial assets that strengthened balance sheets. From 1960, the baby boom drove rapid growth of state and local government spending so that even though federal government spending remained relatively constant as a percent of GDP, total government spending grew rapidly until the 1970s. This pulled up aggregate demand, private sector incomes, and thus consumption. Note that in spite of the conventional wisdom, the early postwar "Keynesian golden era" of rapid government growth actually resulted in very small budget deficits because robust economic growth generated rising tax revenues. Further, growth reduced government debt ratios--in effect, treasury bonds were "leveraged" to generate the postwar boom.
Economists have long recognized a macroeconomic turning point in the early 1970s. Government spending began to grow more slowly than GDP; inflation-adjusted wages stagnated; poverty rates stopped falling; unemployment rates trended upward; and economic growth slowed. Intensified efforts to promote saving and investment (on the belief this would restore growth) only made matters worse: saving depressed demand, and investment produced fragility. Another major transformation occurred in the 1990s with innovations in the financial sector that increased access to credit, as well as changed attitudes of firms and households about prudent levels of debt. Now consumption led the way, but it was financed by debt rather than by growing income. Robust growth returned, but this time fueled by deficit spending of the private sector--the topic of my last blog. The rest, as they say, is history: thrift-financed fur bearing trout farms; Nasdaq IPO pet-dot-coms; securitized NINJA (no income, no job, no assets) subprimes; and pension fund-fueled index speculation in commodities futures. With no more bubbles on the immediate horizon, we are left with debt deflation and deepening recession.
Where do we go from here? Private sector-led expansions are (almost) inherently unsustainable because they generate growing debt burdens that eventually must be reversed (I admit, however, that I continually underestimated the willingness of America's firms and households to accumulate debt--I started projecting this current crisis about ten years too soon). It is clear that what we need now is job creation, growth of income (especially wages), and debt relief--all of which will put household finances on better footing. We need public infrastructure investment--not private investment--as well as more (and better) public services. Virtually all economists now favor a bigger role for government, however, most see this as a temporary fix. What I am arguing here is that we need a big and growing government--the ratchet--to generate a sustainable growth path. So while I (mostly) agree with Paul Krugman on the nature and causes of the early postwar boom, I do not think we ever banished the tendency toward stagnation. We just hid it behind an unsustainable debt binge.
We need a growing role for government. But will we be able to afford it? Will a growing government cause inflation? Won't government spending crowd-out investment? What about government solvency? Isn't government subject to a budget constraint just like those faced by households and firms? These are questions for my next post.

















You left out "working less" -- "It becomes necessary to encourage wise consumption and discourage saving,-and to absorb some part of the unwanted surplus by increased leisure, more holidays (which are a wonderfully good way of getting rid of money) and shorter hours."
With the exception of Dean Baker, economists keep avoiding work time reduction like the plague. You don't even bring it up to argue against it. Just ignore it, ignore it, ignore it. It will go away. IT WON'T GO AWAY!
Shorter work time once was the official philosophy of the American Federation of Labor. The idea was that shorter hours was the KEY to higher wages and higher wages were the key to general economic prosperity. It's an All-American theory, articulated by anti-slavery activist Ira Steward.
December 17, 2008 8:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree - the obsession with longer working hours (often with no real increase in productivity) is utterly craze. Let's all stay at work as long as possible, but let's not work too hard while we're there...
Might as well play some strip poker or look at naughty pictures, for all the difference it makes...
February 25, 2011 11:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
December 17, 2008 8:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hello Sandwichman: I am all for reducing the "normal" work week, for introducing flextime and voluntary part-time work, for reducing unnecessary consumption, and so on. I agree that there is no reason why the long-term historical trend should have got stuck at 8 hour days (of course actually reversed now, often with unpaid "supervisor" hours involuntarily added).
Two caveats, however:
a) many people don't have the luxury of working more hours than desired; my own research focus is on eliminating involuntary unemployment and underemployment. (And, not to be too flippant, many of us only wish our workdays could be longer--I'd love to find a way to squeeze in 2 more hours of work per day.)
b) Work week reduction (or "work sharing") has never, anywhere, eliminated involuntary unemployment and underemployment; indeed, it has never had a significant effect. That reserve army of the unemployed persisted despite reduction to the 12 hour day, the 10 hour day, and the 8 hour day. It will persist even if we can move to the 6 hour day.
So, yes, let us reduce the work week for those who want it; and yes let us reduce unwise and conspicuous and environmentally degrading consumption. These are justifiable goals in their own right; we don't have to saddle them with the unwarranted claim that they will relieve involuntary idleness.
December 17, 2008 8:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Note that the "productivity theorists" Mussey referred to would be better described as "19th century productivity theorists" who would not yet have had the benefit of Sydney J. Chapman's theory of the Hours of Labour, which displaced the naïve assumption that output was proportionate to the hours worked.
December 17, 2008 8:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
. . . as emphasized by Minsky, modern investment goods are expensive and long-lived . . . .
In respect to government spending as "ratchet" or "balancer" riddle me this!
As a businessman engaged in producing goods for the government and knowing as you do that government's wants can change quickly and drastically (we call it democracy), how willing are you to invest in "expensive and long-lived" capital goods?
December 17, 2008 8:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
we don't have to saddle them with the unwarranted claim that they will relieve involuntary idleness.
Dear Professor Wray,
I agree with you that shorter hours are saddled with an "unwarranted expectation" for relieving involuntary idleness but that unwarrantedness is only because of a misinterpretation of where the job creation comes into the picture. For the most part, it doesn't come from dividing up the current hours of work and redistributing them in new jobs (although some job loss could be prevented by work sharing instead of layoffs, as John R. Commons suggested).
The real job creating potential of shorter hours is long-term and hygienic. Reducing the hours of work keeps them at a productivity frontier that enables higher wages and thus prevents the dumping of greater labor supply on the market. It enables people to be healthier both physically and socially and this feeds back into their work experience. It keeps labor unions strong and able to demand higher wages.
By the way, my first quote was from Keynes. He thought that in the long run, working less was necessary to maintain full employment. Pasinetti has argued that not only "can" we but we must take the fruits of higher productivity either in increased consumption (which it always takes time to learn to consume) or in shorter hours.
It seems to me that the prejudice against shorter hours as a "panacea" has evolved over the course of SEVENTY YEARS (that's when the FLSA enacted the 40 hour work week) into a blindness that the FAILURE to progressively reduce the hours of work becomes toxic. Long hours of work become a drag on wages and thus on consumption (see Dorothy Douglas's discussion). That's why I would urge you to stop assuming the hours/workers trade-off story is the sole rationale for shorter hours.
December 17, 2008 9:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's why I would urge you to stop assuming the hours/workers trade-off story is the sole rationale for shorter hours.
I meant to say the sole rationale for the job creating potential of shorter hours.
By the way, Bosch argues that most studies show work time reduction creates between 25 and 70 percent of the arithmetically-possible number of jobs.
December 17, 2008 9:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
From a political standpoint I am with the billionaire expert. An entirely new way of looking at the relationship between government and business.
People like Joe Scarborough will laugh at fixing the immediate economic crisis with concrete. We need concrete, we need a medical internet that instantaneously permits doctors to communicate files with each other, a new health care system replacing the factionalized programs we have now.
Government must oversee corporate abuses and corporate management abuses which are separate issues.
God its great to get into a discussion with Randall Wray. This is great.
December 17, 2008 9:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks to all commentators. Here are brief responses (and apologies for not hitting every point made):
a) shorter work days/weeks have many benefits; I support them for those who want them. I repeat that there is no need to claim more than necessary to support them. Yes to leisure time, yes to higher productivity with shorter days, yes to building better character, yes to better health. However, I am highly skeptical of any claim that these will increase the number of jobs (a claim that is inconsistent with the greater productivity, in any case) or reduce unemployment and underemployment. Even if this claim were partially true, it is not a substitute for purposive and direct job creation programs.
b) As Keynes noted, if enterprise relied solely on cold calculation, little investment would ever occur. It requires some degree of euphoria; a lot of that euphoria is created by gov't policy. Much is misplaced. Better to use public infrastructure as the basic engine of growth; then let "the market" supplement that w/private investment.
c) Yes to concrete, yes to health care, yes to childcare and eldercare, yes to tackling corporate abuses. A wealthy nation needs and should expect more from gov't--another reason for the ratchet.
December 17, 2008 10:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
This post mentions that our economy's "financial fragility" has increased. One of the causes of this fragility is the network of "complex financial instruments" that make for deep interrealtionships among the different sectors of the economy. One sector's fall will cause massive damage to other sectors.
With the stock market in a tailspin, should we not be concerned about the insurance industry, especially the life insurance industry?
Insurance companies collect premiums before the claims are due. They take this excess money, Warren Buffet calls it his 'float', and invest it. Presumably, they make a profit from the investments, which provides the money necessary to pay the claims, plus quite lavish bonuses, big office buildings, etc.
However, if the insurance company loses money on the investments? What then?
An hour ago, I looked up an insurance company I have done a lot of business with. That company's consolodated financial statement shows that at the end of 2007, it held a surplus of 8 billion dollars. However, the NY times reported yesterday that company has (had) 3.3 billion invested with Bernard Madoff. In addition, the statement shows that at the end of 2007 it had 3.7 billion invested in the stock market, 1.5 billion in derivitives, and 12.6 billion in real estate mortgages.
Why did Warren Buffet step up to the plate a couple of months ago? Buffet's core business is insurance. He knows the insurance companies are in trouble.
December 17, 2008 10:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Prof. Wray, I am very impressed and grateful that you're taking the time to respond to questions and comments, that's a real public service. I have a few questions:
1. What do you think is the role of inequality in creating and sustaining liquidity traps? Inequality reached peaks (very similar peaks) just before the 1929 crash and the present crisis. It seems reasonable to think that rising inequality is a cause. Stagnant incomes at the lower end would mean that more people experience absolute declines in income and attempt to sustain consumption with debt (1920s were noted for new forms of debt); and more wealth at the top end would mean increased demand for financial assets, and resulting financial bubbles. Since neither of these is sustainable, the eventual result would be asset crashes and debt defaults, leading to widespread destruction of wealth and a collapse in demand. My reading of history and our current situation is that both the 1920s and our present crisis seem to fit this description perfectly. Yet I don't see this being discussed. Am I missing something?
2. Following on that, since financial stability and adequate demand were acheived after WWII when inequality diminished, does it make sense to replicate the policies that produced this result, namely a more progressive tax structure (hikes at the top, cuts everywhere else) and a larger safety net? These would permanently support consumer demand by distributing more income to the lower levels of the income distribution.
3. Although a big infrastructure program is obviously called for, it will take some time to have an effect. What do you think of a temporary negative income tax for a few months to a year to sustain consumer spending until that happens?
Thanks again for being so generous with your time.
December 17, 2008 10:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
It seems to me that 'asset bubbles' and wealth or 'income' inequality are in a sense, the same thing. We have an investor class with puffed up 'paper' wealth that can't be sustained.
The asset bubble creates the condition of too much capital with no where to go. Hence, you got mortgage derivatives so all that capital could get parked in something that brought in 5% interest rather than 3% T-bills.
When everyone who could afford a house had one, then mortgage salesman began to cajole poor people into expensive houses (and in fact that house price was part in parcel of the asset bubble itself).
So now, instead of allowing "the market" to let the air out of the bubble, we're taking money away from taxpayers to puff the bubble up some more.
December 19, 2008 11:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
Interesting. I think the greatest generation, as hard working and patriotic as they were, was just in the right place at the right time. Similar opportunities, on an equal scale, did not exist for the boomers, and the current generation, well watch any news lately?
December 17, 2008 11:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Dear Professor Wray,
I want to echo Tom Hollenbach's thanks for your graciousness in responding to comments on the blog.
Could you elaborate on your skepticism "of any claim that these will increase the number of jobs..."? Is your skepticism based on econometric analysis, firm-level microeconomic analysis or "theory"? Because the published econometric studies I've seen are inconclusive but often incorporate inappropriate assumptions about optimal hours for output (I've tried to be comprehensive in my survey), the microeconomic studies are generally positive and the "theory" taught in textbooks with regard to swt is at odds with what actual theorists have written.
Quite possibly most economists are skeptical about the job creating potential of shorter hours. But many have also imbibed the textbook lore about a "lump of labor fallacy" infecting claims for job creation. Not coincidentally, that fallacy claim corresponds with the central talking point of the anti-union, anti-eight-hour day, right-wing political organization of the employers at the turn of the twentieth century, the National Association of Manufacturers, whose president in 1923 claimed of their in-house economist, Noel Sargent, that "He is teaching the teachers. He is teaching the professors and college presidents."
I'd like to also take issue with your assertion that the job creating potential of swt is "inconsistent with the greater productivity, in any case". This alleged inconsistency has been noted before. But consider the argument that productivity-enhancing technology "creates more jobs than it destroys." That commonly made claim is based on the argument that the lower-priced goods made possible by improved technology brings in new buyers and/or frees income to purchase other goods and services thus employing more people. If the SWT argument is inconsistent then the general technology one is as well. Viewed from the perspective of Chapman's theory, shorter hours of work is itself, in effective, a technology improvement.
December 18, 2008 12:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
My God, A big infrastructure program will only cause more inequality by building new roads and brides to the power and influential’s land causing older and present developments to decline.
What is needed is maintenance and repair of existing infrastructure not roads to new “clutter”.
Invest the money in people, in New Community Organizations not for the Corrupt who profited already from our no laws observed society!
December 18, 2008 1:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
I am concerned.
1. Why are shorter working hours or fewer working days a good way to create jobs? This (a) Reduces the income of the people who have the jobs, which I assume good liberals don't like, and (b) Creates a deadweight loss due to having additional employees (each additional employee creates additional variable nonwage costs for benefits, physical plant, expenses of hiring, etc.). As a society, we want more people doing more things, not more people doing the same things. More people doing the same things is called "being less efficient", or "reducing productivity".
2. Creating additional mandates for employers (if that is how this flextime/reduced workweek stuff is set out) discourages employment and would shunt more jobs overseas. One of the competitive advantages of the United States is that Americans, particularly the better-educated, are hardworking. Getting in the way of that would not be good for anyone in America.
3. The problem in the United States is at least in part insufficient investment, not insufficient consumption. Deleveraging will help, but in the long run, this is a cultural problem; people need to start planning for the future again. Government needs to give people the tools to do that, not new mandates reducing their options for how to get there.
December 18, 2008 3:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Also, the #1 reason for early postwar success:
"Ten Plus Years of subtrend growth in GDP ex government, leading to massive resources sitting idle that could be employed once normalcy was restored."
It's like "Morning in America" in the 80's. The "Reagan Recovery" wasn't Reagan's doing. Growth accelerated because inflation was taken care of, money was again available, and there were productive resources sitting idle (empty factories, a high unemployment rate) which allowed for quick growth.
December 18, 2008 3:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks again to all for all of the comments (I am on Oz time so am answering on a different schedule). And, again, sorry that I cannot respond to every point. Here are a few comments:
1. Reduction of work day throughout US history did not eliminate the reserve army of the unemployed. Recently France also tried it, explicitly on the argument it would lower unemployment. Careful studies found it did not. I don't put much (or any) faith in macro econometrics--especially with few data points over historical periods that must have had structural changes.
2. But let us say that reduction of hours does lead to some additional job creation. Fine. Do it. It will never eliminate unemployment. Don't try to sell it as an employment program.
3. Infrastructure: I find it strange to argue the US does not need public investment in this area. Katrina??? The civil engineers estimate a shortfall of about $2 trillion. Let us say they overestimate (they love to pave everything?). Personally, I'd like the bridges I drive on to not fall down.
4. You will note I have called for more government spending on a variety of social programs--partly for the reasons Prof Feiner raised about employment of women, but also because I agree that that is an important area in which America is lacking. Yes to community organizations.
5. I won't give out my specific policy proposals right now--coming up in my next blog.
December 18, 2008 7:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, sorry, I forgot one thing. A former student of mine has a new book coming out that argues for the shorter work day/week. His name is Robert LaJeunesse--watch for his book. So I am neither completely uninformed, nor against the idea. My argument is that it is not enough--we also need more jobs and more hours for those who want them.
December 18, 2008 7:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you, Professor Wray, I will indeed watch for Robert's book. I met him in Amsterdam in 2007 and cited his article on the efficiency week in my 2007 paper in the Review of Social Economy. He also contributed valuable suggestions in the course of writing and revising that article. If you could read that article, you might understand better where I'm coming from. "Why Economists Dislike a Lump of Labor," Review of Social Economy, September, 2007.
I think it's incumbent on me to confess that "economically speaking" a recession is the worst possible time to implement work time reduction -- except for the fact that politically it's the time people are most receptive to the idea. Hey, don't take my word for it. Adam Cohen in a New York Times Editorial two weeks ago wrote, "One way to reduce the need for layoffs would be to cut back on hours, spreading the available work among more employees. This was an idea that had considerable currency in the Great Depression." Whether Cohen is right or wrong about it being one way to reduce layoffs, it is clearly the huge job losses that are focusing attention on the issue.
The real "job creating" power of work time reduction would come if it were implemented during an economic expansion. It then functions as a stabilizing tool, forestalling bubbles and promoting more equitable distribution of income. But people aren't interested in hearing about how to moderate economic growth when it is happening. They're too anxious to get in on the bonanza. Just ask Bernie Madoff.
If you would study the history of the movement for shorter working time, as I have, you might discover that people mobilize for SWT at the "worst possible time." So pragmatically, that's when you've got to push it forward -- just when economists and business lobbyists are saying "not now, we can't afford it."
The crux of the matter is that the reduction of working time in North America is long overdue. To argue against shorter working time as a remedy for unemployment is, in effect, to argue against shorter working time period. And if it doesn't get implemented NOW, it won't get implemented during the next economic recovery either. If there is a next recovery.
In closing, I simply can't accept "careful studies" as a credible source, Professor Wray. Anders Hayden reviewed lots of "careful studies" with titles and authors and concluded that the consensus held for a "qualified success" and job creation in the neighborhood of 350,000. Not perhaps a "panacea" but by no means insignificant, either. A PDF file of Hayden's paper is available here: "France's 35-Hour Week: Attack on Business? Win-Win Reform? Or Betrayal of Disadvantaged Workers?" Politics and Society (Vol. 34, No. 4, 503-542 (2006).
December 19, 2008 2:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
As a layman and a U.S. taxpayer, I can only view the prospect of more government spending as temporarily necessary but frightening, especially with our enormous defense budget and military commitments around the world.
The U.S. was able to leverage its victory in World War II into massive wealth and power but the rest of the world has since closed the productivity gap while the U.S. has been diverting resources to its wasteful military-industrial-financial complex. Let's not fool ourselves into thinking we have a global monopoly on intelligence going forward.
Common sense says ongoing increases in the federal deficit are not sustainable, and I fear the day when the world gives up on the dollar because the U.S. cannot pay its bills.
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