The Global Jigsaw

Bob Reich raises an important question that's been worrying me: what does the end game look like? When, if ever, can the economy throw away its crutches and do without big stimulus? I'm not sure I agree with his answer, but my own answer raises some awkward issues, as I'll explain in a minute.
Basically, what's happening now is that the things that supported our economy in the middle years of this decade -- high consumer spending relative to income and a housing boom -- are gone, and won't come back for the foreseeable future. So what will take their place?
Bob argues that nothing will, unless the government does it. This is a modern version of the "secular stagnation" view popular in the 1940s (and visible in Keynes himself), which argued that there would be a persistent shortfall of private demand, and that we'd basically need a permanent WPA to support the economy. This view turned out to be wrong for the postwar decades, and was subject to a lot of ridicule from later economists -- but it actually looked pretty good for Japan in the 90s and after. I'm not ready to believe it for the United States, at least not yet; we don't have Japan's shrinking population, we still have a lot of technological vigor supporting business investment, it shouldn't be that hard to keep the economy growing without permanent fiscal support.
That said, where will the demand come from? I find it useful to compare U.S. spending in recent years with spending in the mid-90s, when things seemed much more sustainable. What changed? Well, we had bloated housing investment and bloated consumer spending. Meanwhile, nonresidental investment as a percentage of GDP was about the same in 2007 as it was in 1996.
So what offset the consumer/housing boom? A vastly increased trade deficit. And that suggests that a return to normalcy would involve getting savings up, housing spending down, and a combination of more exports and less imports.
That's where things get complicated: a lower US trade deficit means lower surpluses and/or higher deficits elsewhere. Who's the counterpart to our adjustment? OK, the Middle East, which no longer has its oil windfall. But China is having its own slowdown, as is Japan.
In other words, trying to figure out where we go from here is a sort of global jigsaw puzzle -- and I haven't managed to solve it yet.
In the end I think we will work it out; as I said, I'm not ready to be a secular stagnationist just yet. But Bob is definitely raising the right issue.

















How can we connect this discussion with policies to work on the income and wealth inequality (and lack of adequate growth in income/wealth for 75% of the U.S. population) problem that has accelerated coming out of the 1970s stagflation/oil shock/Reagan policies era?
One way to look at the problem of the individual mortgage failures (and personal debt problem) is not just that people were buying homes that they should not have, but that there had been over 30 years of inadquate wages, income and wealth (and inadequate growth in them) for at least 75% and perhaps as much as 90% of the U.S. population.
December 16, 2008 3:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
You nailed it! No one likes to mention that because they would be suggesting a class war has happened here. That's an unmentionable. But I think that's really what this situation boils down to. They have the tax the rich at a disproportionately higher rate at get it back to the larger group of wage earners. I think this situation will continue indefinitely until redistribution happens. Otherwise, look for look for a break down of civilization.
December 16, 2008 3:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Otherwise, look for look for a break down of civilization."
http://www.prisonplanet.com/army-strategic-shock-report-says-troops-may-be-needed-to-quell-us-civil-unrest.html/comment-page-1/#comments
December 16, 2008 4:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Funny you mention that just as California is going to use troops to help with DWI checkpoints in spite of being warned it's illegal for the HP to do that...violates posse comitatus and is unconstitutional...but the "law" is going to do it anyway.
December 17, 2008 4:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'd say it wasn't a class war so much as it was an ambush and the working people got rolled big time! In return for that I say it is high time for a class war that levels the playing field once again and that makes clear who the villains were in this story that unfolded over several decades.
I would add that our economy would boom like never before if only we would drastically reduce the wasted money that goes for "defense" spending. We have the biggest, most bloated military budget in history. But this gigantic profligacy on the war and munitions industries never even gets discussed in most discussions such as this. It is nothing short of obscene. We spend more on the miliitary annually than all the other nations on earth combined! Combined! It is utterly appalling that we waste money on such a grand scale (upwards of $650 billion annually). Couple drastic cuts in the military with a single payer national health care plan and there would be a massive burst of creativity and productivity in our economy... in my opinion.
December 17, 2008 1:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
It appears fundamental to history and economic history that distribution, especially a broad distribution of wealth is essentially important to a healthy state, society and civilization.
The key, the 'end game' would appear to be some kind of structural, that is to say, institutional arrangement, perhaps a new innovation, is involved.
American society is based upon one principle: free contract. Therefore, distribution of bargaining power determines wealth distribution and therefore economic and social stability.
The Japanese, oddly enough are the most innovative here. There, corporatations have to provide widespread tenure. This results in some curious alterations in behavior with result in their firms being very competitive, and distribution of wealth being very broad.
This phenomena is something we should be studying with great great interest and intensity. Tenure appears to do what collective bargaining does, but does it like a tweezers compared to the institutional arrangements we have used which would be more akin to a sledge hammer.
December 16, 2008 4:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
I absolutely disagree. American society, like most, but not all, societies in history, especially those coming out of Europe like ours, is based upon domination, not free contract, much less freedom, which free contract would be based upon. Humanity's struggle throughout history has been to expand human freedom against the domination of the "masters of mankind" as Adam Smith described the capitalists and mercantilists of his time. This expansion of freedom is what we call "progress" and dominators call "instability," or what Chomsky has recounted from Latin American activists as calling "expanding the floor of the cage." You can read Chomsky's excellent work on this here.
Basically, my simple-minded model of human society and history is the struggle between the masters and the slaves. Everything else is ideology.
December 17, 2008 9:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
Keynes called his book "The GENERAL Theory of employment, interest and money" because he argued that full employment was a special case and, contrary to the then-ruling classical theory, an economy could well be in equilibrium at less than full employment. I don't think his assertion has been successfully refuted.
This implies that the government MUST either provide a periodic stimulus or else provide a high level of social services for the un/underemployed. Unless we want a permanent underclass.
December 16, 2008 3:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wouldn't it be possible to make up the difference by lowering our dependence on oil imports and attempting to switch to a new energy economy?
December 16, 2008 3:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Krugman wrote: "Basically, what's happening now is that the things that supported our economy in the mid-80s -- high consumer spending relative to income..."
I wonder if the answer to the issue at hand lies, in part, on how successful we'll be at reducing income inequalities, increasing real incomes and growing the middle class.
December 16, 2008 3:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Amen CJ
December 16, 2008 3:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
"...high consumer spending relative to income and a housing boom -- are gone, and won't come back for the foreseeable future. So what will take their place?" asks Krugman.
Or another way to pose the question is "what kind of recovery do we want?" And I would suggest that it cannot be just another massive fiscal "stimulus" that props up the wealthiest and maintains the nation's vast economic disparities. Economics is now political in the sense that there is a popular political consensus to direct fiscal recovery to productive areas that will benefit those at the bottom as well as the productive middle-class: quality, affordable housing; upgraded schools and school systems; energy, technology and infrastructure investment, both public and private.
And, perhaps it is time to consider a new institution (or set of institutions) to direct this fiscal investment, rather than leaving the political decisions in the hands of Fed and Treasury ala Bush et al.
December 16, 2008 5:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Like a 'new' WPA?
December 16, 2008 9:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
The number one thing I think we should be selling is "green tech", specifically energy efficiency and pollution avoidance/mitigation. Although I have never been to China myself, the stories from those visiting Chinese cities are clear: the population is (literally, in the proper sense of this word) choking on its own exhaust. They are going to need ZEVs (partial or full), pollution controls on power plants, more efficient building cooling/heating/power, and so on.
December 16, 2008 3:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Boy I sure hope Nobel Laureate Paul, or Secretary Reich or the New Administration's economic experts figure out something. This is all over my head.
I just do not want to see taxpayer dollars going straight into the hands of the managerial class that caused this Economic Armageddon.
December 16, 2008 3:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
to late bud..... it's already gone.
December 16, 2008 4:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
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March 25, 2011 7:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think CJ is right.
As to CT's comments on China, I think that is unlikely. They need to keep up the impossibly fast economic growth if they are going to keep up with urbanization and avoid social unrest. They are not going to start importing a lot more from the US. Even if they did, they would only do so with the result that they would lower the amount they loan to the US, largely canceling out the effect, no?
December 16, 2008 3:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Let's admit it.
In the post-internet environment of globalized competition our median standard of living has only been able to hold its own -- barely -- because mercantilists (principally, China) have subsidized the American consumer (although leaving a trail of debt we're currently munching on). Now, it's deteriorating and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future.
Trying to maintain that debt-purchased standard of living in a world where American consumers have lost their AAA rating is a fool's errand.
December 16, 2008 3:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
What I take from this is: We're going to be poorer no matter what. So maybe we should start aiming for fairer and happier.
Would that be about right?
December 16, 2008 4:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
You right, but who caused it and why. Don't tell me wage earners who saw their jobs disappear to global competition asked for it. This was foisted on the populous by the moneyed class, seeking higher profits and an end to organized labor. They figured they could skirt national protection of human rights by going international in the name of competition. Also, cheaper cost didn't always translate into cheaper price to the end user. Globalization is a raw deal for the lower class. They know this inherently, no one has to tell them. Pundits and economists love to deny it's real purpose. The cold hard facts are that some are wealthy (America), because others are poor (nations like China, Vietnam, or Eastern European Countries). Life styles are maintained by inequity. The larger question is WHAT AMOUNT OF WEALTH INEQUITY SHOULD BE ACCEPTED?
December 16, 2008 4:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Globalization is a raw deal for everyone except the proverbial international capitalist class. Unless you're fabulously wealthy, globalization undermines you no matter who you are or where you are because it has been set up for the benefit of multinational corporations as opposed to anything quaint like the public interest.
December 17, 2008 1:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
God! Cleanse my ears.
December 17, 2008 3:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well, theoretically a standard of living in wealthy countries could be maintained in the face of wage competition from those having a lower standard of living -- if -- the rate of global growth equaled or bettered the rate of competition induced wage reduction.
But global growth is unlikely to grow faster than 2.5-2.6% per year. And that rate's not high enough to make up for wage reduction due to "The World is Flat" global competition.
December 16, 2008 4:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Governments can protect the communities' interests they represent with tariffs from destructive competition. They don't because the moneyed class won't allow it. Democracy, remember that?
December 16, 2008 4:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
You could be right, but the "moneyed classes" have a lot of intellectual horsepower supporting them -- Krugman, DeLong, Thoma, Wray just to name a few.
December 16, 2008 9:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
That is the problem. and guys like Thurow have been predicting it for decades now. Our standard of living has been artificially propped up by a series of arrangements since WWII; but now we are down to "too big to let fail" arguments.
We are going to have to downsize and it will be painful for some.
December 16, 2008 5:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Who should be downsizing?
December 16, 2008 9:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Not I," said the dog. "Not I," said the cat.
"Then, I will," said the Little Red Hen.
December 16, 2008 9:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's what I was afraid of.
December 16, 2008 10:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Better idea.
December 16, 2008 11:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Um, maybe.
December 16, 2008 11:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ever since that BBW, ( no silly... This! Puh-leez!), blew down the old homestead, I'm all about downsizing. And building to a higher wind load standard...
December 17, 2008 1:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
Dude! If I were a little pig, I'd work with the wind, not against it. You need lift!
December 17, 2008 8:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
"some"? Try it will be painful for tens of millions.
December 17, 2008 1:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm still hoping for a turn around in about 9 months and that the standard of living will lower slowly over years rather than in two or three traumatic drops in a shorter time.
We just have to retrain our expectations of what constitutes the good life. Maybe write SUV's and McMansions out of our expectations of our economic rights.
December 17, 2008 10:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
The bad and good news is that energy is going to force us to transform the economy. For if there were a standard recovery, the next thing that would happen would be energy going up to $140/bbl and that would slow things down again, not to mention what happens if someone bombs Iraq and so forth.
Besides transportation by auto, we also need to reengineer transportation in general... trucks are not going to cut it any more. Similarly the way we do agriculture... large farms in the West and Midwest, things shipped out of season in refrigerated trucks and railcars... not gonna happen, wouldn't be prudent.
What has to rise is a sort of county-level carbon and transportation management economy, where we figure out how to (let's say) use the heat and carbon from power generation to grow things, and find solar and gravity-based ways to move them around... and employ people doing all of that. Reviving craft and having people actually make durable, well-made goods rather than use foreign machines to create them out of plastic and then use oil to bring them here... that's another win.
It simply takes one level of abstraction from current paradigms to come up with many of these things, and we will, because we have to... there is no going back.
December 16, 2008 4:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
There occassionaly seems to be some commodity like this in history.
I'm thinking of sugar. At the time of the American war of independence the carribean islands were the source of sugar and since sugar was addictive substance made the carribean islands more valuable than the other colonies. As a result after Yorktown the British pulled out of North America and concentrated their efforts in the Carribean, where they managed to salvage something sufficient to settlement.
The Napoleonic wars and associated trade wars and nabal blockades put pressure on continental markets, The solution was found in beet production for sugar. Beets didn't produce as much sugar as sugarcane but it it was easier grown, harvested and processed and could be grown in Europe's climate. The value of sugar dropped and the carribean islands impoverished. Haiti went from being the most wealthy colony to the impoverished nation that it is today.
December 16, 2008 4:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
duh... should read 'bombs Iran..."
December 16, 2008 4:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
For those of you interested in macro and micro economics and how money is used and valued, I suggest you read two great economic primers, Going Postal and Making Money, by Terry Pratchett creator of the Disc World book series. Read, learn, laugh.
December 16, 2008 4:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Miguel with his pig and Jason with his Teddyr make me laugh everytime I look at them. But I have not seen you for awhile and I guess Alfred E. is the funniest. So confident and yet so inane.
WHAT ME WORRY?
December 16, 2008 4:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Paul,
Great post. However, I think everyone is curious as to exactly how much stimulus we might need to get us on a path to healthy growth again.
So, how much?
December 16, 2008 4:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
For those interested, here is Professor Krugman's Nov 17th blog post on this subject:
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/11/17/after-the-stimulus/
It has a nice chart with GDP shares and a comparison between investment, consumption and net exports.
Personally, I'm pinning my hopes on repressing consumption via lower energy imports. But there will be other adjustments as well.
December 16, 2008 4:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
It seems obvious that our policy intent should be to substitute domestic production for imports, especially for oil, leading with business investments and consumer durable goods that are substitutes for imported oil. In other words, design, retooling to manufacture, and purchases of vehicles that are not fueled with oil; building the infrastructure to deliver the alternative "fuels", presumably electricity and compressed natural gas, to these new vehicles; replacing our limited remaining oil-fired electric generating capacity with "greener" alternatives; and providing mass transit as a substitute for oil-fueled cars where appropriate. Although it will take time to work through, this import substitution is on the scale of our persistent balance of payments deficit (and I do understand the relationship between the current account deficit and the difference between domestic investment and savings). I acknowledge this will be an economic challenge for oil-producing countries and therefore will create some national security issues but it will likely alleviate even more national security issues than it creates.
December 16, 2008 8:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is the first painfully embarrassing thing that I've read from Professor Krugman in a very long time. How the hell could he miss that part of the economy that accounts for over 50% of discretionary gov't spending, the Pentagon system of military Keynesianism created almost immediately in the wake of WWII? Let Noam Chomsky take it away (from 1993!):
Of course, the Keynesian policy pursued by US elites didn't have to be centered in the Pentagon's budget, essentially producing waste (aka "weapons"). It could have been spent on the population at large and human development in general. But making the "mob", the "great unwashed", stronger, like Social Security and other New Deal programs did, wasn't quite on their agenda. I would really appreciate Prof. Krugman, or anyone else's opinion on this glaring, but apparently overlooked, fact about reality.
December 16, 2008 9:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not sure Paul's ever questioned the value of having the banks (Federal Reserve) print our money, to give to the banks, to help our economy recover from the Federal Reserve's "mistakes."
December 16, 2008 10:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Huh? I don't follow, or understand, your comment. What does the Federal Reserve's, or Treasury's, monetary policy have to do with the US's disguised form of industrial policy that Chomsky described?
BTW, this picture of economic reality really gives us a way of crafting new policy, namely, to move from military to social Keynesianism, which is much more sustainable in long run, as well as effective in the short run (before we're all dead, as Keynes mentioned), which is what I think Krugman and a few others have been getting at, and with which I wholeheartedly agree.
December 16, 2008 10:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
"But making the "mob", the "great unwashed", stronger, like Social Security and other New Deal programs did, wasn't quite on their agenda. I would really appreciate Prof. Krugman, or anyone else's opinion on this glaring, but apparently overlooked, fact about reality."
The private, for profit nature of the Federal Reserve is another glaring, but apparently overlooked, fact about reality that I've never heard Krugman's opinion on. Even Milton Freidman was anti-Federal Reserve.
For instance, this big stimulus that Krugman wants to create could be printed as Government issued currency, and not Federal Reserve notes. That way we wouldn't automatically owe interest to the big banks who literally own and run the Federal Reserve.
Krugman is ultimately a voice for the ruling establishment, despite his criticisms over the years.
December 17, 2008 11:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
Amen, brother billwalker. One of my own necessary but not sufficient "modest proposals" (after eating poor people's children) is to democratize the money supply (there goes the Fed), end currency speculation by moving to a single world currency (essentially what the US dollar was under Bretton-Woods), control capital movement (also the case under Bretton-Woods), move lending and borrowing to bottom-up democratic control (local, state, regional, national, international, in that order), and more, all of which end the global financial order, which is just a mode of institutional domination of humanity.
Money is simply a tool, a means and mode of exchange that permits us to compare and trade commodities like honey and oil. Money, under control by the dominators, the odious "masters of mankind", has become an instrument of domination, as any tool can be misused. Money is morally and ethically neutral in and of itself. Human agency, how and why we use our tools like money, is where the moral and ethic dimension comes in. As the Bible reminds us, money is not the root of all evil, the love of money is. (I actually believe domination is the root of all evil, but that's just me.)
December 17, 2008 11:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, and regarding Krugman as a status quo economist, he's actually on the dissident end of the acceptable spectrum, but you're correct overall. Marxists don't win Nobels in economics.
December 17, 2008 11:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
A conspiracy nut might argue that Krugman was their ace in the hole, the rebel nobody listened to, who now has built up credibility and a brand new Nobel. This ace in the hole then supports a $700 billion bailout for the banks, and then jumps ahead to sress the importance of another $1 trillion in stimulus, without ever looking back at the $700 billion given to the bankers.
It's like Colin Powell building up credibility, and then being told by Cheney that he has credibility to spare. Powell then marches up to the stand and tells obvious lies with a straight face.
One other thing, poemworld - You agree that a government issued currency would be good, but you say you ultimately want to have a single global currency. Who would issue this currency? A single currency is exactly what the international bankers are going for here, and it's something they've dreamed about for a long time. This crisis did not come about because there were too many currencies, or too many sovereign governments.
I strongly believe that to a large extent this crisis is manufactured and compounded by a conspiracy to withhold credit. The crisis of '29 was created in a similar way, when the big brokers conspired to call in most stock bought on margin on the same day, thus crashing the market when everybody was forced to sell. The economy was then bought up for pennies by the same people who caused the crash.
December 17, 2008 2:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oops, wrong link. Chomsky's quote is from The Pentagon System, first published in Z Magazine in February 1993. Apologies for any confusion.
The mistaken link goes to an interesting article on art and anarchy, fwiw.
December 16, 2008 10:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
From Tim
In what history have monied interests in control willingly ceded it to allow for an equitable "distribution of bargaining power"?
If we were a democracy in fact, then popularly elected representatives would have provided for this or in some other manner provided for the equitable distribution of wealth. Otherwise, such redistribution is fleeting at best, absent at worst and only occurs as an aftermath of a crises in which the less monied interests take it in the shorts, big time.
The proportion of redistribution is the issue, and monied interests have steadfastly refused to yield (through the political / economic clout available in our election & congressional voting processes).
It hasn't been that long since the economic constraints of the New Deal and we ended up in the "second Guilded Age" per Krugman in Conscience of a Liberal. Thus, the bias in our national collective economic ideal allows for the avoidance / bypassing, or redefinition of those constraints.
Unless and until the collective national philosophy changes dramatically from "individualism" we will continue as before, interupted now and then by a self made economic crises, despite the occasional use and enforcement of constraints on unbridled profit motive.
December 17, 2008 2:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
Longtooth, the US has been quite redistributionist over the past 30 years, just from the poor and middle class to the wealthy. And this is how the US gov't was consciously designed by the founding fathers. James Madison said that he designed the constitution to "protect the minority of the opulent from the majority," though to his credit he came to bitterly regret this toward the end of his life. John Jay, founding father and first chief justice of SCOTUS had a favorite maxim: "The people who own the country ought to govern it."
See, everything is going according to plan.
I will take issue with your criticism of individualism. First, there is no intrinsic antagonism between individualism and democracy or even socialism. They can be placed into opposition, but that is by contrivance. Second, I've observed that what a lot of people who criticize individualism actually have in mind is egoism. You know, all that John Galt/Ayn Rand/"Atlas Shrugged" crapola, though to be fair to Rand, I've always agreed with her criticism of really-existing capitalism and capitalists, whom she observed to be somewhere between parasites and predators.
December 17, 2008 8:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
Income disparity. No penalties for using slave labor abroad and bringing products back here to sell. The outright greed of profiteering without regard for cultivating a working class that can afford to live here. The wealthy might as well outsource the middle class and the poor to China and just deal and cater with each other.
There are two economies operating here and one is feeding off the other to protect their holdings and means of doing business. The government economy must interfere to prevent a complete economic collapse where only the poor and middle class stand to lose.
The jigsaw must begin by putting the missing pieces back together. There is a new direction demanded by nature and our environment to seek alternative energy and stop global warming. We begin by rolling back the Reagan tax cuts, re instating tariffs, penalyzing the outsourcing of jobs and rewarding companies keeping their business and labor with the US. Begin a National not for profit health care system and retool or direct manufacturing of goods for a new century while redirecting labor toward rebuilding our infrastructure as well. We must regulate greed, put a cap on it instead of allowing a few people to take all the water while the majority die of thirst. Nationalize instead of privatize and work toward making government services more efficient. We've just gotten too big for so many "private islands" to exist in our nation.
When a few people start making over $50 billion a year while we have high levels of poverty then their taxes must increase to pay their fair share based on excess amounts of profits if they want to do business in America.
There must be limits on what people can charge so campaign commercials don't cost a million to air. It's our air we allow the media to use.
The jigsaw starts coming together nicely when huge profits and greed is regulated and spread across the nation's needs. That is loving and supporting your country. What has been happening is these "economic royalists" are reducing the rest of us to serfdom milking us for what they know we must have to survive...the means to acquire food, shelter, and energy , family and education. Stimulus packages must be aimed at these goals and they must include penalties and regulations to prevent the selling out of America.
December 17, 2008 4:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
We need to stop cutting each others throats. If workers don't make enough to buy the houses they build, they don't get sold and all the economy is affected. This happens as our business is outsourced by greedy businesses for cheap labor abroad to lower the price of goods and still make a huge profit. Everyone else makes less money but they make considerably more. They get walled off with people like them making the same amounts of money while the economy and living standards decrease. Soon, even the wealthy are affected by their own greedy tactics as there is no one who will continue to support them or can afford to.
Complaining that you can only make one billion instead of two because of taxes or labor costs gets you no sympathizers.
Our present condition is the result of this type of Reaganomics and most agree that we need to start capping the greed and regulating the profiteering through taxation just to balance the books. These greedy groups refuse to give back one single dime and are only concerned about how to protect their holdings and get more. When the law is used to help you get away with breaking the law then something is definitely wrong.
December 17, 2008 4:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
I say screw the rest of the world. Bring manufacturing and services back to our shore and put Americans to work at a wage rate that supports them buying products and services provided under our economic standards. It is dumb to try and compete with nations where they have filthy water, no sewage, crappy air, horrible or non-existent health care etc. We moved all our stuff off shore to such places and in effect promoted a horrible condition that is globally harmful for everyone. All because it was 'cheaper'. Free trade is bullshit. Absent a system that absolutely equalizes currencies to accommodate various living standards it's a total lie. It wasn't cheaper. It destroyed the quality of life for the majority of the worlds population and made a small percentage of people (briefly) very rich.
Our government and our economists are stupid. There is no way to flood our markeplace with cheap goods, thus depressing our wage rates when the cost of living in this country continues to rise. It's dumb to lower our standards in order to compete. It shoots the tax base all to hell. Its like driving around in frigging reverse. You can't see where you're going and you ain't gonna get there very fast. And we made it worse by implementing a tax cut that benefitted primarily the wealthiest Americans at a time when government expenditures were going through the roof. Its a joke to think you can live in this country on $10 or $12 an hour. Even a single person can't get by decently and hope to save anything on less than $16 or $18 an hour.
December 17, 2008 7:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
Structural unemployment? Easy fix. Maintain a large military to soak up the young people entering the job market.
Lack of consumer demand? Easy fix. Get another country to use its low-wage labor force to produce masses of cheap durable goods.
Credit freeze-up? Easy fix. Just get the Fed to lower the interbank lending rate to zero. Then turn up the printing presses to "Hi".
Economy stagnant? Nothing could be simpler! Invent a new bubble to get things cooking again.
Jail the party poopers who stopped the last bubble! That was a crime against society. Since prosperity is only available now in bubble-environments, then mandate bubbles! Embrace reality! Use Congress!
Or "irreality" if you want to be picky.
It is the economic equivalent of becoming a dope fiend. After a while who cares about that painful old "real flat world"? We just make the transition to a "virtual economy" ahead of everyone else.
America: leading the way!!
December 17, 2008 11:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
There is one way to protect against deflation, add inflationary pressure, create jobs, and generate tax revenue.
The way to do this is to put in place a currency tax on the dollar value of Chinese and other imports from countries that practice mercantilism.
Relying on the research done by Peter Navarro; " the China Price advantage is driven by more mercantilist elements. Export subsides account for 17% of the advantage, an undervalued currency adds 11%, counterfeiting and piracy contribute 9%, and together, lax environmental and worker health and safety regulatory regimes add another 5%" the rate to account for unfair practices would be 42%.
December 17, 2008 11:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
None dare call it "cornucopia"?
The problem I have with "secular stagnation" is that it snatches a pejorative from the jaws of victory. "Stagnation" is just an economist's way of saying "down with abundance". Hey, let's perpetuate (artificial) scarcity instead and call it "economic growth"! War is peace. Theft is property and poverty is prosperity.
How can we get the economy "moving" again (think bowels) so we can CONSUME MORE HYDROCARBONS? And what about creating opportunities for future Bernie Makoffs? Pave paradise and put up a parking lot!
Sometimes enough is better than more, more, more... too much!
December 17, 2008 1:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hi TPM,
Am I being moderated or censored? I'm kinda curious because my posts are being "reviewed by the blog owner" or something like that.
What's up?
Love,
poemworld
December 17, 2008 2:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
I guess this is only happening on Prof. Krugman's post because this went up on yesterday. I've emailed help@talkingpointsmemo.com but haven't heard anything. Does anyone have any ideas or suggestions about what's going on?
Thanks!
December 17, 2008 2:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
If they closed your account, you may have said something blatantly, personally offensive. Whether or not this happened, if you create another profile with another e-mail address, you'll be good.
December 17, 2008 3:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't think they've closed my account because I'm able to post comments everywhere EXCEPT on Krugman's post today, "Why WWII 'Worked'", which I seem to be completely blocked on. I know that Brad DeLong detests Chomsky, so maybe there's static there. I don't believe I've been offensive, just critical. The harshest word I've used is "hell". I guess some people are just too sensitive. Oh well...
Regarding your statement about a global currency, first, I would bring that currency under democratic control, from the local to global in that order, which is not the case currently under the "private" Federal Reserve. Second, the US dollar under Bretton Woods acted as a defacto global currency under what has been described as "the golden age of [state] capitalism". I hope these caveats address your concerns, though, of course, these suggestions are no panacea, only what I consider to be necessary, though not sufficient conditions for liberating humanity from domination by the wielders of the money weapon.
December 17, 2008 6:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
You probably just had more than a couple of links. The filter thinks you are spam.
I think there is a 2 links on comments limit.
December 17, 2008 9:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, the excreta did hit the fan in the end, didn't it.
Not sure if anyone ever did solve the puzzle. Oh well, how about strip poker instead?
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