Will a stimulus be enough?

Paul is correct in arguing for a large stimulus. I can't help wondering, though, if we'll need something more. Keynesianism is based on two highly-questionable assumptions in today's world. The first is that American consumers will eventually regain the purchasing power needed to keep the economy going full tilt. That seems doubtful. Median incomes dropped during the last recovery, adjusted for inflation, and even at the start weren't much higher than they were in the 1970s. Consumers kept spending by borrowing against their homes. But that's over. The second assumption seems even more doubtful: that, even if middle-class Americans had the money to continue the old pattern of spending, they could do so forever. Yet the social and environmental costs would soon overwhelm us. Even if climate change were not an imminent threat to the planet, the rest of the world will not allow American consumers to continue to use up a quarter of the planet's natural resources and generate an even larger share of its toxic wastes and pollutants.
The current deep recession is a nightmare for people who have lost their jobs, homes, and savings; and it's part of a continuing nightmare for the very poor. That's why we have to do all we can to get the economy back on track. But many other Americans are discovering they can exist surprisingly well buying fewer of the things they never really needed to begin with. What we most lack, or are in danger of losing, are the things we use in common -- clean air, clean water, public parks, good schools, and public transportation, as well as social safety nets to catch those of us who fall.
Given the implausibility of middle-class consumers being able to return to the rate of spending they maintained before the bubble, along with the undesirability of our doing so even if we could, and the growing scarcity of common goods, one could conceive an argument for maintaining aggregate demand through continuing government expenditure on the commons. Rather than a temporary stimulus, government would permanently fill the gap left by consumers who cannot and should not be expected to resume their old spendthrift ways. This wouldn't require permanent deficits as long as, once economic growth returns, revenues from a progressive income tax refill the coffers.













Green powered electricity and transportation are going to cost more than fossil fueled. We'll be spending more to sustain the lifestyle we have now whether we like it or not. That will absorb a lot of consumer cash that's now blown at Walmart and Neiman Marcus.
December 15, 2008 7:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Once again I get to read Secretary Reich. We just had long discussion over the week end about the useless stuff we buy. We need a transformation.
I am just afraid that the buck and a half for gasoline might put a damper on change.
December 15, 2008 7:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
. . . government would permanently fill the gap left by consumers who cannot and should not be expected to resume their old spendthrift ways. Robert Reich
What gap? Who says there's a gap? Why do you call it a gap? A gap in what?
Yap-a-Gap!
December 15, 2008 7:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Secretary Reich simply forgot to capitalize: consumers have left The Gap, so we need the government to step in.
Seriously, I like the concept of increasing public spending on, well, public common goods: parks, schools, mass-transit infrastructure.
December 16, 2008 3:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
My basic problem with the general call for the fiscal hail mary is that consumers are in exactly the same boat as lenders. Directly income to the peeps, no matter what the technique, will have exactly the same effect - little or none. Our balance sheets took the exact same hit (or worse) that the financials took. The amount of capital that must be replaced before spending begins again is a number that I have yet to see adequately expressed...for either group.
Take it one step further. If you agree with the above and deploy a fiscal program, what can the multiplier possibly be? One? Less? Think of all the workouts that will need to be brought up to date with a new job.
Now my sense (I know not very scientific) is that investment in alternative energy and alternatives to consumption (recycle, reuse) are dark horse players that will CREATE economic value in the course of REDUCING consumption. This is a relatively new branch of the science but I would like to see the superstars give it some spotlight in the coming year.
December 15, 2008 7:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not ignored, at least some in the Obama camp think this way. There is consumption, and there is spending on family-level infrastructure. When a growing family enlarges the kitchen or bathroom, or adds a bedroom, value has been created, money was spent on the work and materials, and everyone is better off.
It will be similar with energy installations. The best deals will be local because the will accommodate the peculiarities of the locale. Jobs will be local for installers, and some manufacture will be local, or at least national. Money will be spent on the means of production, so it will be essentially capital expenditures at the family level.
The variety of local conditions will mean a variety of solutions, so the bottom-up effects will be fruitful in many ways.
December 15, 2008 8:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Robert: I just asked Krugman the same qwuestion b/c I think he's said in the past year or so that we kinda witnessed a mini-run on Hedge Funds since easy credit slammed shut in August 2007. Because of this $50 Billion BERNIE MADOFF scandal, are we going to witness a "classic" run on Hedge Funds with the ultra wealthy (and, apparently, charities and foundations and pension fund managers) literally lining up in their Maseratis outside the Hedge Fund offices trying to make their withdrawals?
December 15, 2008 8:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
The rich don't "line up". They call their lawyers, personal shoppers, and so on, and have them do it. :-)
(Seriously, though, there's a funny thing happening: some wealthy people have suddenly discovered "value". I don't have actual statistics, just some anecdotes I have picked up here and there.)
December 16, 2008 3:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hey CT... Here's a picture of the ultrawealthy lining up last Friday in the lobby of the lipstick building trying to get their Madoff money... Amazing, but it's true. It's really happening to the "shadow" banking system for the ultrarich.
http://www3.signonsandiego.com/stories/2008/dec/12/wall-street-arrest-investors-121208/?zIndex=22295
December 16, 2008 11:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
Ok, here is a random pull on the kind of "Sustainable Economics" that I think Professor Reich alludes to and that I call for more examination of as part of this discussion:
https://netfiles.uiuc.edu/dtcook/www/CCCnewsletter/5-1/Rattle.htm
The existing model of consumption based growth really does need to be treated to a high profile critique before any large scale fiscal stimulus is given the go ahead. I first tumbled to this sub-topic in a book by Daly and Cobb I read about a decade ago.
http://rds.yahoo.com/_ylt=A0oGkif_BEdJ2Y8Aju1XNyoA;_ylu=X3oDMTByN2s4bDgzBHNlYwNzcgRwb3MDNARjb2xvA3NrMQR2dGlkAw--/SIG=12dg0sfu4/EXP=1229477503/**http%3a//www.amazon.com/Common-Good-John-Cobb/dp/0807047023
But if you want to start with health care, supertrains and wind power, and skip the controversey, that would be good with me also.
December 15, 2008 8:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Where is James Galbraith in this discussion?
December 15, 2008 9:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Please explain. Why don't we RAISE interest rates? The problem is that banks are unwilling to lend. So, why don't we REWARD LENDING by offering the possibility of a fair return?
Lowering interest rates REWARDS BORROWING and continues the disasterous policy of encouraging people rely on debt to finance their lifestyles.
December 15, 2008 9:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bunker: "Depression Economics" is when private virtue = public vice. As a whole, we want people to borrow and spend right now. (I agree with you; debt & nefarious debt instruments caused this thing so they should be shunned), but as a basic principle, we want people & the gov't spending as much as possible at a time like this.
"Depression Economics" turned everything on it's head. :)
December 17, 2008 7:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Am I right that another way of putting Reich's thesis is that there is, by itself, no stable lower level of consumer spending, because less spending leads inevitably to less income, leading to even less spending, blah blah blah? Another way of saying that is that industry has just gotten too productive for its own good, and we need a new source of demand to make things balance. (And it's either infrastructure or war...)
December 15, 2008 9:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes! Yes! I admit that I shop with the best of 'em, but I'm a small timer these days next to my fellows. But when we talk about spending on the commons, we often step on some expensively-shod toes. For instance, I consider it criminal that Americans spend so much more than people in other countries for high-speed Internet access--which explains why so few Americans have such access. But I already hear the screaming from AT&T, Comcast and the other providers that don't want to lose the $50 a month we have to pay them for the service.
And one does wonder how the US corporations that moved their production facilities overseas are going to feel about Americans deciding that we'd rather spend our time attending class rather than attending the mall. They have, I think, more power than I do.
December 15, 2008 9:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
I would still like more stuff.
December 15, 2008 9:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
"It's the unemployment, stupid!" I wish I'd said that. The problem with all the stimulus package talk is that in them employment is a byproduct of economic growth. Furthermore, it's a byproduct that consultants and contractors would like to keep to a minimum so they can maximize their "value added" rent.
Create jobs directly by reducing the hours of work and sharing the work and income. Or, to quote KEYNES (fer crissake) "It becomes necessary to encourage wise consumption and discourage saving,- - and to absorb some part of the unwanted surplus by increased leisure, more holidays (which are a wonderfully good way of getting rid of money) and shorter hours." ("The Long Term Problem of Full Employment," 1943)
December 15, 2008 10:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
The first is that American consumers will eventually regain the purchasing power needed to keep the economy going full tilt.
Boy, there is almost the hint here of the Austrian insight that increasing consumption is not the force that drives the economy. That is, you don't get richer by consuming more...
Even if climate change were not an imminent threat to the planet, the rest of the world will not allow American consumers to continue to use up a quarter of the planet's natural resources and generate an even larger share of its toxic wastes and pollutants.
So stimulating consumption uses up resources rather than producing more of them. So far, so good.
Given the implausibility of middle-class consumers being able to return to the rate of spending they maintained before the bubble, along with the undesirability of our doing so even if we could, and the growing scarcity of common goods, one could conceive an argument for maintaining aggregate demand through continuing government expenditure on the commons.
What? It is simply not sustainable for us to keep consuming more individually, but we can get the government to do it for us?
Rather than a temporary stimulus, government would permanently fill the gap left by consumers who cannot and should not be expected to resume their old spendthrift ways.
So we'll have the government resume them for us? Why exactly do we assume that the government will be able to spend any more sustainably than the individual?
Does not compute.
December 15, 2008 10:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good points!
December 15, 2008 11:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's nice to see RR's thinking evolve over time. He has now realized that the level of US consumption is not sustainable, but that's only because of "resentment" from the rest of the world.
So, he thinks that government spending, rather than personal spending, will be the cure. This still doesn't address the basic point that the US is consuming at an environmentally unsustainable level. In fact the world as a whole is consuming at a level that requires 1.5 planets to sustain. This will only go up as the population rises from 6.5 to 9 billion by mid century.
Maybe he will take the next intellectual step and realize that the continual growth/capitalist economic system is no longer viable. We need to devise a system which is sustainable or steady-state and which doesn't depend upon depleting unrenewable resources.
I've got two short essays on this:
http://robertdfeinman.com/society/no_growth.html
and
http://robertdfeinman.com/society/after_capitalism.html
December 16, 2008 10:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
Professor Reich, I was prompted to sit right up as I read this post. What you suggest will no doubt be greeted as heretical by many Libertarian "free market" economists. I, for one, say "Thanks!" for daring to look beyond the present crisis toward an understanding of some of the underlying structural problems in the economy.
We have built this as a consumer economy, dependent upon an ever-increasing appetite for consumer goods. The economy grows only for so long as more and more goods are produced and sold and consumed and then replaced.
And as you point out, much of the stagnant nature of the economy today is due to having driven this on consumer debt as a substitute for actual consumer wealth. But that would seem to be the least of our problems, long term.
This upwardly spiralling consumption of resources cannot be sustained. Although somewhat tepidly introduced, I especially like your hint at a proposed solution:
But the trouble I see is this:
1.) What's in it for me, the present consumer? After all, I want more "stuff." Isn't that the reward for my labors in this economy?
2.) Gov't expenditure on the commons can be equally as consumptive of non-renewable resources as is the present "consumer driven" expenditures. (Think military spending on weapons systems; infrastructure expenditures that can in fact subsidize consumption of resources by providing roads to run on, power lines to rush more and more energy to be consumed, etc.)
Driving a "new, Green economy" as a common assault on non-renewable consumption is the type of reordering of the system that is required.
First, we have gained incredible consensus these last few years that global climate change, peak oil, and other "green" concerns are critically affecting our future viability as a species. It is widely recognized - and rightly so! - that we are confronting some real crises here if we do not substantially change our way of living.
Secondly, we have surrendered much of our manufacturing capacity to offshore outlets, and often specifically for reason that corporations can thusly avoid the extra financial costs of operating in at least a semi-responsible fashion in terms of their environmental footprint.
The American worker has always responded wondrously when confronted with a common challenge. WWII-era industry is only one example of ways in which the middle class can find sustenance in embracing patriotism to produce product at remarkable levels and with great efficiency.
What if we were to have leadership that could now appeal to these workers' patriotism, personal pride and sense of value by declaring it their role to "save the world" by providing the products and the means - and yes, even the necessary sacrifices - to put our species upon a more sustainable track? Could the sense of mission generated by this "call to arms" replace much of the present "desire for stuff" as the reward gained by the labors of the middle-class?
I think it can, especially as the prospect that there are simply no other real alternatives becomes increasingly apparent.
How might this work?
Well, I'm reminded that much of this present economic system was founded in our automotive industry. Perhaps we have opportunity now to build the new "green" economy upon the shoulders of this industry as well.
It could start by:
1.) selling the Big Three to its employees with assistance from the Gov't in providing loans, etc., as needed.
2.) Gov't assume costs of health care, pensions, etc., for all Americans, thus relieving our manufacturing industry from this overhead expense. This also represents some of the gov't "expenditure on the common" that was mentioned in your post.
3.) Establish through tax policy a floor for fuel prices, probably @$4/gallon. Use the tax revenue to reimburse those who cannot afford to pay these prices and also to reduce cost of national health/pension plan.
4.) Direct the employee owned carmakers to create "green" cars. The market for same will be assured by the stabilized fuel prices.
5.) Encourage growth and diversity of auto industry and other manufacturing interests into the building of locomotives, solar panels, windmills, renewable biofuels, etc.
In a way, this reordering would place upon the shoulders of the working class the responsibility to grow this economy in a sustainable fashion and therefore save this economy and even the world environment itself by rolling up their sleeves and getting the work done. I have faith that our workers would respond mightily, and that they would necessarily reorder their own priorities from that of acquiring more "stuff" to instead finding sustenance in the realization that they are helping to create a better world for themselves and for the generations to follow.
It's a tall order, I know. But the sate of our present economy and the environment require nothing less!
December 16, 2008 1:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Indeed, Americans were given a false sense of wealth through the bubble of the values of their homes. The true purchasing power of Americans is now being realized. There is no quick fix for this one. I hear the cons of protectionism but for God's sake, if Americans don't find a way to fill the void created by the implosion of the bubble, our economy will begin to shrink.
Good paying jobs MUST be created and kept here in the U.S.
December 16, 2008 2:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Warning: The following are thoughts from a complete economic neophyte, and are probably inane.
1) I wonder what role the so-called networked or information economy will play. The networked economy trades in knowledge, lot's of it, so it has a real supply-side dynamic to it. Lot's of stuff can get created, with virtually no environmental cost, and only the good stuff (along with too much of the bad stuff) need be consumed. Of course, the consumption is often at no cost, but it does seem to me that all sorts of knowledge based services/products can be generated that will spur consumption and at the same time create new wealth without necessarily trashing the environment.
2) Can we find some room for growth by spurring development in the so-called "base of the pyramid"? The base of the pyramid is the 4 billion or so people who live on two dollars or less a day. Unlike the top of the pyramid where most of us live, the base is not a saturated, highly competitive market. True, working in the base would seem to generate consumption and wealth creation within the base, and so would not immediately seem to benefit us, but I wonder if economic gold can be mined from efforts to expand significantly efforts to service the economic needs/desires of those in the base of the pyramid, rather than simply exploiting their labor.
3) Isn't the environment already screwed merely by population growth projected to level off around 10 billion by 2050? If so, is it possible that consumption, with its capacity to sort, select, and drive innovation, is actually the way out? If the only thing that will generate the sustainable products that we need is a healthy market, why is it necessary to trash a consumption-driven market as the enemy of the environment?
December 16, 2008 2:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
You go,Bob Reich!!!!
Keep saying this as loudly and often as you can.
And please throw in something about supporting sustainable local agricultural development for people in poor countries who could grow stuff for themselves if they could survive doing it.
December 16, 2008 5:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
My purpose here is merely to suggest a possible answer to the impasse that both Reich and Krugman are trying to address.
They are talking about the secular stagnation that comes with a decline in consumer spending and the degree to which government intervention can stimulate economic recovery.
I have two responses actually. The first is what I take to be the genius of the Obama approach, which I think is so natural to Barack that he might not even see the brilliance of the position. In essence, it is the use of government enterprise to redirect and make more valuable the entire structure of capitalist -- for profit -- enterprise. In other words I do not see Barack creating a WPA economy as much as a corporate meritocracy where the winners are actually doing useful things.
The useful list includes:
delivering health cheaper and better
educating better and on the basis of integral thinking about how we build a school, where we build them, and their size and function (I believe in more nodes, in connectivity beyond the schoolroom in intermediate locales)
a complete revolution in transportation including a greater mix of NEW public transit -- a huge opportunity for the growth of the economy, with jobs related to enhancing public over private
One could go on. Suffice to say that a capitalism based on government stimulus is the very reverse of letting the government do it and not in any sense privatization, which is essentially an admission of failure. Civic Capitalism if you will.
My second point takes off on the first. We need an integral global solution to the problems of human survival on the planet. This involves global warming but it also involves sustainability as a serious element in planning an economy. Sustainability is a value that we need to pay for by creating such things as
ways to overcome natural dangers by how we do location and construction
ways to modify the current crush of refugee situations by making migration easier
ways to match occupations with what people will pay for -- a huge expansion in the care and caring industries
radical simplification of life, more work at home, a reduction in the number of things needed to enhance life
The general idea is to create an economy which builds on actual needs rather than the manufactured chimera needs created by advertising.
These are obviously speculative notes. I am not an economist. But I do know that our crisis is not economic at its base, It is a crisis based on a dysfunctional value system. An economics that works in the future will not hold its nose at the prospect of needing work as Nietzsche suggested on a revaluation of values.
December 16, 2008 5:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am ignorant of economics but it seems to me that I could buy a really good pair of shoes, for alot of money, that pays someone a living wage to produce, and they could be of such quality as last 10 years. or I can buy ten pairs of crappy shoes that get thrown out every year, and are cheaply made.
(roughly) The same money is spent but in one case less waste is created and better jobs are supported. Does this concept have a name?
December 16, 2008 5:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Secretary Reich,
I have been thinking about many of the same things. I am not convinced that we should even pursue a "growth economy" any more. It seems like the goal of the stimulus for many (including Krugman, a hero of mine) is to get the economy growing again. It is implicit in this approach that a growing economy is a good thing. A growing economy will use more resources and create more pollution than we already do. Should this be our goal? I think it may be time for a paradigm shift.
Another question is how much the US economy can grow even if we want it to given the limits of the natural world. I am not sure that growth is even going to be possible in ten years.
I like your approach of investing the stimulus money in the commons. Lets try to become a nation of citizens again rather than a nation of consumers.
December 16, 2008 11:17 PM | Reply | Permalink