Reform from the inside
The discussion taking place in this cafe is one of the most qualitative I ever had. As I carefully read everyone's comments I realize how much you can learn from people if you are willing to listen.
Many of you raise the Palestinian question. No doubt this is a very important subject for us Israelis, for Palestinians and for the entire world. But they do not play a major role in my current book. In part because I wrote a great deal about this conflict in my last book, God is Back, and in part because I believe this issue is primarily about us Israelis and our psychological mindset.
Daniel Levy compared me to Natan Sheranski. I do not know whether it is a compliment or a criticism. But there is something there. Sheranski became George W Bush's prophet. Tell me who your disciples are and I'll tell you who you are. There is nothing to add, given the last terrible 8 years. I'm ready for this challenge, ready to give it as much time as possible and as needed. As long as I know that I have real partners -- not just to talk the talk but to walk the walk.
Several participants in this discussion wrote about US - Israeli relations. This requires a longer discussion about the biblical foundation of these two nations. But a lot happened since then. The bible is no longer the same, because its moral dimension was manipulated by religious Messianic fundamentalists -- both Christians and Jews. We must be very careful about the outcome of these relations. Bush was not the best president ever for the Israelis. He was the worst. Because a good president at the White House is like a good parent at home. He must say no every now and then. And when he does not say no, and allows everything, the more aggressive the better, that's an example of bad international parenthood.
In addition, I am truly delighted by the many great comments in this thread. Alas, some simply use this discussion as en excuse to put forth their own agendas, regardless of the content and the intellectual exchange of this forum. I was sorry to see comments from some who did not read my book. There are people who never listen to me, will not engage in an exchange but. They shoot the messenger so they do not have to face the message. So they can simply continue on their way, against the Palestinians, against all Arabs, against all non-jews. These are ugly people, and I have to face them daily. Ugly because they abuse the honorable Jewish tradition of polemic and disagreement. Ours is a culture, even a civilization, that deeply respects all others and especially the intellectual other -- acknowledging that the minority opinion of today might be the foundation of tomorrow's national strategy.
It is difficult for a non Jew respond to the main point of your book because it really does sound like an intra-tribal discussion. I can watch it with great interest and wish you all progress in convincing your fellow country men.
However, I did comment on Israeli-US relations.
At one level, your book is quite pessimistic. Entire people do not change beliefs embedded deep in their psychology. If there is not a major change in basic attitude among Israelis and their American Jewish supporters the war will likely continue, if I understand your point correctly. In that case, we should be prepared to pursue our national interests by separating ourselves from Israel as she proceeds down the road of perpetual war and oppression. As an American, I think that should have priority.
December 12, 2008 3:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, I woke up this morning with the sense that the majority of Israelis don't care what the rest of the world thinks, generally maintain a siege mentally that shows no sign of change, and see distinct territorial advantages of maintaining this mentality in the future.
Just as China will inevitably end up with Taiwan if they really want it, Israel will inevitably end up with the West Bank and Gaza if they really want it.
I think a slim majority of Israelis will unquestioningly go along with whatever machinations make this expansion "necessary," and there are enough IDF, Mossad, and AIPAC professionals who know how to get it done. The war game scenarios have probably already been calculated, and these war games include how to manage Israeli, American, and (to the extent possible) international public perception.
Joe Lieberman, Bill Kristol, etc will be on board, and all it would take is a subway bombing in New York, a more effective False Flag like the attempted incident in the strait of Hormez last year, complete with fake terrorist voice over, which the Pentagon tried to sell us:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2IrelAO52M&feature=related
So Israel/US would bomb a section of Iran, Iran attacks Israel from Lebanon and/or the West Bank, and Israel is "forced" for it's own protection to take another 50+ percent of the West Bank, and go on a rampage in Gaza.
Heck, Krauthammer probably already has the Op-Ed sitting on his desk.
December 12, 2008 4:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Poor analogy. The rest of the world and the UN recognize China's sovereignty over Taiwan, no country, not even the US, recognizes Israeli sovereignty over the West Bank and Gaza.
For Israel to pursue annexation followed by either expulsion or apartheid will mean international sanctions.
December 12, 2008 5:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hope you're right, though the US has a long history of blocking sanctions against Israel in the UN.
December 12, 2008 6:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm going to wade into this very gently. I believe that when a civilization is based pretty much on a religion, trouble is there for the asking. Whether it is from different views of that religion or just different religions, there is going to be problems.
As I said earlier in a post on a different topic.
The opposite of Faith is Certainty and in my experience those that follow an unyielding philosophy have no room in their hearts for different opinions or beliefs. And until hearts are TRULY OPEN progress is nearly impossible, in ANYTHING.
Probably said too much already but I have enjoyed following this thread.
December 12, 2008 4:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
This comment is not in direct response to Burg's latest piece, but to the multiple threads that TPM has hosted for his book. This has been, in my opinion, one very interesting dialogue. Inviting de Gennaro, Weis and Mearsheimer to comment has expanded the discussion.
In the above post it appears Mearsheimer wants to avoid comments to his piece. I suspect, it is because his words attract the vitriol of settler apologists like YBD. Ironic, actually, if you look at some of the exchanges below, because YBD's responses prove the point that Mearsheimer is trying to make. And that is, YBD is speaking for a significant plurality of Israelis who oppose any two state solution. And further it will only get worse if the religious nuts and the settlers continue to out breed the secular Israelis who are only interested in leaving.
We must consider the possibility that the two state solution is not possible. If so, then what do people who want the US to act in its own national interests do? Well, for starters, maybe we should try to extricate ourselves from this mess, so when Israel goes plunging over the cliff, the US does not join them.
December 12, 2008 11:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Syvanen makes an interesting point. I hardly ever see any refutation of the facts I bring in my comments, simply a demand that Israel be forced to accept Arab demands and that will hopefully bring peace, even though I have given ample historical evidence that the opposite would happen, Israeli concessions bring increased violence and war. No doubt this is the reason Mearsheimer disallowed any comments, as a polemicist, he doesn't want any facts disturbing his nice illusions.
Let's say that Mearsheimer is correct (I don't, but that is besides the point here), that there is going to be increased Israeli emigration (even though Palestinians are leaving in greater numbers, a poll just a few days ago said something around half want to leave). How would the Arab side perceive this? Mearsheimer, Olmert, MJ, Daniel Levy and many other "progressives" say "Israel had better hurry up and make concessions to create a Palestinian state for its own good. Olmert himself said "Israel is doomed (G-d forbid) if it doesn't create a Palestinian state right away". So what is an Arab reading his piece going to think? He believes Israel is going to disappear of its own accord. Why be satisfied with 22% of Palestine now when we can keep up the pressure with an ongoing war of attrition and we will end up with the whole thing in a few years (HAMAS gives Israel another 12 years) for free? Is it reasonable to think that Abbas is going to open himself up to charges that he is a traitor to the Arab cause now by making concessions when he can go down in history by refusing to give in to Israel and the US? Arafat is viewed as a hero because he walked away from Camp David. No matter what he does, they will keep giving the Palestinian Authority money, arms and support because the US doesn't want HAMAS to take power in Judea/Samaria.
All Israeli concessions and American pressure do is convince the Arab side that time is working for them, they are on the way to victory (don't forget the possible Iranian A-bomb in the background).
Regarding the fears of Mearsheimer, Bernard Avishai and others that the "wrong people" are going to end up ruling Israel, well, all I can say is that the damned thing about democracy. In the American South prior to the 1960's there were institutions like the poll tax and literacy tests to prevent "unqualified" (i.e. black people) from voting.
In reality, Mearsheimer's gloomy predictions are not correct. There are significant changes occuring in the Haredi (ultra-Orthodox) community which is leading them to greater integration in larger Israeli society. The Arab birthrate both inside Israel and in the Palestinian territories have declined considerably in recent years, mirroring developments in the rest of the Arab world. The Jewish birthrate has held steady and the secular, Ashkenazi birthrate has also held steady at levels far above the "below replacement rate" levels seen in Europe, against all predictions. Aliyah (immigration) is slowly increasing from North America and Western Europe and the current economic crisis is expected to increase it further. You have to remember that NO ONE predicted in the 1980's the fact that over 1 million Jews would make aliyah following the fall of the Iron Curtain.
Since the beginning of the modern Jewish settlement of Eretz Israel starting in the mid-19th century, people have been continually predicting that it won't last. They have been proven wrong over and over. When Israel was created in 1948 there were 600,000 Jews here. Today there are almost 10 times as many and the country is thriving IN SPITE OF CONTINUING HOSTILITY FROM THE ARAB SIDE. No other country has prospered in such conditions. As David Ben-Gurion said "anyone not beliving in miracles in Israel is not being realistic".
December 13, 2008 12:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wow, it's almost like the Jews are God's Chosen People! To make peace would be to slap God in the face!
December 13, 2008 1:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
What's wrong with a progressive narrative and idea to end this conflict. I don't understand why continuing Arab hostility should be a positive factor in the continuous existence of the Israeli state. That you make this connection into a positivity is odd.
December 13, 2008 4:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
"n reality, Mearsheimer's gloomy predictions are not correct. There are significant changes occuring in the Haredi (ultra-Orthodox) community which is leading them to greater integration in larger Israeli society."
Can you talk about this YBD?
December 13, 2008 6:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tintin-
The Orthodox/Religious community in Israel is divided roughly into three different groups. We could call them
(1) National Religious/Religious Zionist (this is whom I identify with),
(2) Haredi/Ultra-Orthodox
(3) SHAS-Sephardic
One could say that no. 3 is not really distinct because they could be said to overlap the other two, but I think it is correct to list them separately.
The first group generally encourages its young people to fully integrate themselves into Israeli society, in business, in the professions, and particularly in the IDF. They attribute religious significance to the State and a large majority are strong supporters of Jewish settlement in Judea/Samaria. They have a significantly higher birth rate than the Israeli average.
The second group has traditionally been defined as non-Zionist or anti-Zionist and is largely Ashkenazic. The non-Zionists, in practice support the state, vote in the elections but unlike the Religious Zionists, generally do not attribute religious significance to the state. It is this group that is beginning to more fully integrate itself into the the larger Israeli society, for various reasons. It is true that this group has tried to avoid army service, not viewing it as having particular religious significance and fearing the largely secular culture of the military having a negative impact on the values of its young people who come in contact with it. However, some do serve. The anti-Zioinsts of this group are a minority of the Haredi community and they view cooperation with the secular state apparatus as a positive evil, to be avoided at all costs. They also view it as important to generally live in separate communities to minimize contacts with other Israelis whose values they don't want their young to come in contact with.
The Haredim have the highest birthrate in Israel and it has even increased in recent decades. They also do not attribute the religious value in settling Judea/Samaria that the Religious Zionists do, although they have communities present in Judea/Samaria, and are, in fact, among the fastest growing.
The third group, the SHAS-Sephardim have a strong Haredi component, but their Haredim are not as separatist as the Ashkenazi Haredim I described above. (SHAS is the name of the party, headed by Rav Ovadia Yosef which has really created a revolution among the Sefardic (i.e. Eastern community) Jews. It is not uncommon to find non-religious parents sending their children to SHAS schools because they appreciate the discipline and don't want their kids to be affected by the rapid deterioration of the Israeli secular school system which is falling apart. SHAS people, even the Ultra-Orthodox among them are more inclined to work, support vocational education although they are building a scholarly class which devotes years of full-time study just like that which is valued in the Ashkenazi Haredim system. They do not emphasize living in separate communities as do the Ashkenazi Haredim. Rav Ovadia Yosef is a big believer in keeping the Sepharic communities united with people of all levels of observance staying together so that those who are not as intense will be influenced over the long run to improve their level of religious observance.
As I said, the SHAS people have always been workers and the Ashkenazi Haredim are now integrating into the work force in unprecendented numbers. Thus, the doomsday scenario that Mearsheimer described is based on political polemics by Leftists which is increasingly out of date.
I hope this answered your question.
December 14, 2008 2:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, thank you.
December 14, 2008 10:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Historically, one long-term solution to intractable conflicts between co-located, extremist religious factions has been thorough interbreeding.
Alternatively, the promulgation of numerous competing hybrid sects may serve to blur the power base of the most bloodthirsty elements, eventually producing a rapprochement through forced collaboration.
December 14, 2008 8:41 PM | Reply | Permalink