TPMCafe
« Palestine First, Then Syria & Hebron Settler Outrage | Home | A New Federalist Recovery »

Paper Wealth and the Economic Crisis

user-pic

Back when President Bush wanted to privatize Social Security he visited the office in West Virginia where the government bonds owned by the Social Security trust fund are stored. After viewing the bonds, Bush held a press conference and announced that "they're just sheets of paper."

Bush was absolutely right about the "sheets of paper" part of the story, but the "just" needs some further qualification. The value of these bonds depends on the taxing authority of the U.S. government. That is still the most valuable guarantee in the world.

Of course other claims to wealth, like stock certificates and house titles, are also sheets of paper. One way to describe the current crisis is that these sheets of paper turned out to be much less credible than the government bonds held by the Social Security trust fund.

Because house prices have plummeted and shares of stock have lost close to half of their value, the paper wealth of the country has been radically diminished over the last year. We have lost more than $8 trillion in stock market wealth and close to $6 trillion in housing wealth.

This loss of paper wealth has sent consumption plummeting. People consume based in part on their wealth. The average homeowner has lost more than $70,000 in home equity over the last two years. If they had money in a retirement account invested primarily in the stock market, then they would have lost close to 40 percent of their retirement wealth.

The families that have experienced this enormous and sudden loss of paper wealth are now putting off consumption in the hope of rebuilding their savings. This is especially important for the huge baby boom cohort that is at or close to retirement age. Tens of millions of baby boomers are now looking at a retirement in which they will have no pension and almost nothing in the way of retirement savings or home equity to sustain them in retirement. They will be almost totally dependent on Social Security and Medicare.

This backdrop should be kept in mind as Congress considers a stimulus package in the next two months. Congress can and should be considering very large sums for the stimulus package, possibly as much as $600 billion per year.

Spending of this magnitude is needed because that is the amount of demand that must be replaced. With consumption plunging, and housing, non-residential construction, exports and state and local government spending all headed downwards, a large dose of government spending is all that stands between us and long steep downturn. Ideally, this money will address real needs - repairing infrastructure, reducing energy use, extending health care coverage - but the key point is that we need spending, and lots of it.

Those who worry about the deficit and the resulting debt that will be created, and what we are passing on to our children, must think more carefully about sheets of paper. With the stock market plunging by 40 percent, it is now far cheaper for our children and grandchildren to buy the country's capital stock. In other words, they can expect far better rates of return on money that they invest for retirement and other purposes as a result of the stock market's plunge.

Similarly, the fall in house prices is great news for our kids. They will be able to get homes for 30 percent, 40 percent, in some areas even 50 percent less than would have been the case without the recent plunge in prices. They should be very happy.

Even the debt itself is not a net burden on our children. Someone must own the debt. In 50 or 60 years, most of us will be gone. The holders of the debt will be our children and grandchildren. While those with an ax to grind, such as cutting Social Security and Medicare, have tried to portray the government debt as redistributing income from future generations of workers to those currently alive and paying taxes, this is absurd on its face.

As a practical matter, our concern must be with the state of the economy. The only way that we can keep employment high, and maintain the infrastructure and investment needed to keep the economy prosperous in the future, is through massive amounts of deficit spending over the next two years.

The debt created by this spending will not be a burden to our children, rather by building a stronger economy we will have hugely benefited our children. The real crime to our children will be if we let misguided concerns about paper debt prevent us from taking the actions needed to pass on to them a healthy economy.


[A quick response to comments below: given the steep downturn that we are facing because of the collapse of the housing bubble, we would be better off paying people to dig holes and fill them up again than doing nothing. But obviously, we should try to ensure that any stimulus is well-used.

In terms of burdens on future generations -- people have to get over the lunacy that this is somehow measured by the debt. Suppose we sold off all the government's property and retired the debt. Have we made our children better off? How about if we spend nothing on infrastructure and education for 20 years so that we can pay off the debt. Are our children better off? We hand future generations the entire economy, society, and natural environment. The notion that generational equity is in any way captured by the size of the national debt is lunancy.

And, just to repeat my point in the post, the value of private assets also affects the burden placed on future generations. If the stock market is valued at $20 trillion rather than $10 trillion (for the same set of assets), then the return for people buying into the market will be only half as great on average. This would be the same as if we taxed all their earnings by 50 percent, and then imposed ordinary income taxes on the remaining 50 percent.

If our kids somehow would rather get a much lower return on their retirement income and pay twice as much for their housing in order to save a few dollars on their taxes, then we have obviously failed to give them a decent education.]


21 Comments

| Leave a comment
user-pic

If we really use the stimulus money to rebuild our economy, you're right. But if we borrow massive amounts of money and fail to rebuild, our children will be crushed by a terrible combination of massive debt, stagnant incomes, and depreciated assets.

user-pic

If we use the money to built wasteful infrastructure, that's almost as bad as failing to rebuild.

The idea that the economy needs to be babied is wrong. It is the road to ruin.

The idea that "paper wealth" is wealth, is wrong. It's funny money at best, pipe dreams when not magical thinking otherwise.

Bush is stupid to call bonds just paper, Baker is right to point if vaguely to the truth about bonds.

user-pic

I hope Dean will take a moment or so to answer your implied criticism, Purple State, because I think his expressed view -- granted he only has 800 words or so to set it out -- is excessively cavalier.

Take one simple example: For years we've been anticipating making good on those SSTF bonds by redeeming them with the proceeds of USTs sold into the public (private and foreign government buyers) market. But that expectation assumed the existence of relatively modest interest rate increases -- or none, at all.

What happens to interest rates if the deficits (Dean doesn't agree but I say $1-1.5 trillion for the next two or three years) together with the increase in the money supply due to the Fed's reliquification efforts result in stagflation -- not now or within the next couple of years but thereafter as money velocity picks up?

The answer to the Goldilocks economy of the 1960s and the financial irresponsibility obtaining then was easy money and deficits leading to stagflation and the Volcker depression short-lived though it was.

Why won't a similar prescription produce similar results in the not-too-distant future?

user-pic

No economist -- and there are tens of thousands of them -- showed "how the global imbalances, inflation targeting, the impact of China, asset price bubbles, financial innovation, deregulation and risk management systems might interact." Martin Wolf 11/27/2008

And now, the same blind men tell us the elephant can only be cured if we "rush back to Keynes."

Why should anyone believe they've got it right this time?

user-pic

Because if what they are saying now makes sense, it makes sense even if they are the ones who are saying it.

user-pic

Yes, and even a blind squirrel finds a nut, occasionally.

But then, a dead squirrel and a dead economy are disasters of a different magnitude.

user-pic

The danger of excessive spending is quantifiable.
If we spend $Xbillions we know that we'll have to generate taxes of exactly $Xbillions to bring the national debt back to its opening level.

The danger of the what-might-have-been avoidable portion of a recession is unquantifiable. To that extent your case might seem to be easier to make.

But for me at least the opposite is true. A Depression seems concrete . We had one. We may have seen old newsreels -or Henry Fonda in the Grapes of Wrath (the only movie I ever left because I found it so sad that I couldn't bear to continue watching).

You don't have to be one of those scorned economists to have an intuitive sense that its cost-though unquantifiable -is greater than the cost of having overspent by X% in the Bailout.

Furthermore, to me the overspending danger is less frightening because more subject to management. At any point we can change our minds and cut back the spending. Whereas the point of no return at which the Recession starts slipping unrecoverably into Depression is can't be identified in advance.

My conclusion is there's no sense almost jumping over the Snake River.

user-pic

Sounds like Pascal's Wager.

Appropriate since economics -- at least macroeconomics -- is more religion than science.

user-pic

Ellen,

Economist #1- Its raining outside.

Economist #2- Its sunny and clear outside.

Economist #s- 1 & 2- There's weather outside.

user-pic

Ellen. What's with the blind men and elephants, and blind squirrels finding nuts? There is a pattern here. Have you been playing too much Ray Charles again?

user-pic

The immediate problem is trying to head off the recession by spending that can be done as fast as possible.

No one disputes that it would be nice if

A. that spending could be made deficit-neutral by directing it as much as possible at things that are going to have to be done in the future if not done now.

However, there's another way of dealing with the future deficit. Which is

B. practicing infanticide on the Credit Crunch
before it destroys the economy thus robbing of us of taxable-income generating growth .

If there isn't a a consensus among economists
there's at least a widely held view that A shouldn't be allowed to stand in the way of B: that while excess deficits now will have the long term effects you fear that's less of a threat than the loss of production and tax revenue which would result from galloping deflation.

user-pic

Here is what Bush has been able to do for every man woman and child in the United States since he took office. First by cutting taxes he was able to divert over 15 trillion back to the the citizens of the United States that is in addition to the 15 trillion that we all make collectively each year.

All we need to do to get the economy jump started is to simply take the 15 trillion saved in taxes and the 15 trillion we make annually is to take this money and divide it equally among all Americans for the earnings between july 1, 2007 and June 30, 2008.

Where will the money come from? It will come from everyone. We will simply tax all earnings during this period at 100%, we will recover all tax revenues that were not realized through the Bush tax cuts since he took office, all of which will add up to a little over 30 trillion dollars and then give each man woman and child in the country a check for $100,000.00.

During WWII the tax rate went up to 98%, so why can't we dp ot again? It's fair, it's easy, and it is entirely possible. It just requires the legislation to do it. Bush has spent just as much on his millionaire supporters, on corporate welfare, and killing people in Afghanistan and Iraq.

email me at jrhaggerty@com

John

user-pic

Bush was going to finance the transition costs of privatizing Social Security by selling Government Bonds, the same kind of Bonds being held in the Social Security Trust Fund...... which the Republicans were saying are worthless.

user-pic

The economic history of the US since the advent of the income tax in 1913 demonstrates that when the highest marginal tax rate is low we suffer stagnation, recession or depression (1929, 1987 and now). Conversely, when the highest marginal tax rate is high the economy grows and real wealth is generated.
Trickle down economics is the biggest myth that has ever been sold to the public.

user-pic

"given the steep downturn that we are facing because of the collapse of the housing bubble, we would be better off paying people to dig holes and fill them up again than doing nothing. But obviously, we should try to ensure that any stimulus is well-used."

Exactly. So why not pay people not otherwise employed to learn something or to teach someone what they know? Treat people as the infrastructure and resource they are. We are always hearing reports of how dumb we are and how important it is to be lifetime learners so we can compete in a globalized economy yet we do almost nothing to help adults continue their educations.

user-pic

Emma. We need more education? Was it not PHDs that got us into this mess?

user-pic

I was thinking along the lines of more GEDs and trade schools but think about it, if PhDs could be contained in academia, they might do less damage in the real world. :-)

user-pic

Do you remember when PHDs did very little other than teach at Universities? They were considered too odd to work in the real world. They were turned down politely. We told them they were "overqualified."

I agree with your basic premise. We also need more trade schools, right?

user-pic

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't a dollar bill just a piece of paper too?

user-pic

given the steep downturn that we are facing because of the collapse of the housing bubble, we would be better off paying people to dig holes and fill them up again than doing nothing. But obviously, we should try to ensure that any stimulus is well-used. Most of the US families are facing major bad debt attack. Having a complete debt cure program will actually help them. But please do not refer Kevin Trudeau's book debt cure in any case. You will dig your own grave. The most important benefit of debt consolidation is that it can offer a fresh start on the road to more healthy personal finances. Please visit our Free Money Tips page for more information on how to improve your household budget, lower your bills, and make more income. There are several types of debt consolidation program, the best and the easiest being the christian debt consolidation program.

user-pic

The economic recession resulted to people’s financial bad habits that include poor investment skills and money saving actions. This is why anyone who started to face some financial problems should consolidate his debt. The moment you will start using a debt consolidation program you will be able to eliminate a good amount of debt. Debt consolidation is for when you have too many bills and the payments on your personal loans and other debts are getting to be too much. Debt consolidation brings all of these bills under one payment umbrella, and lowers the interest rate, and therefore payments. If you feel like you're drowning, and you have too many bills, then looking into debt consolidation is a far better choice than struggling paycheck to paycheck and worrying about short term loans to fill the gaps.

Leave a comment

Advertisement
Please disable your adblocker!
Ads are how we pay the bills!

Subscribe

The Coffee House
TPMCafe's regulars

House Brew
From Your Cafe Editor

Special Guests
Big names and big brains

Special Features
Pressing topics and trends

Table for One
An expert's week-long talk.

All Reader Posts
TPM readers discuss.

Book Club Calendar

Coming Soon



Nov. 30-Dec. 4



January 12-16



« Book Club ArchiveFull calendar »

Recent Reader Posts

All Reader Posts »





Masthead

Editor-in-Chief
Josh Marshall

Site Editor
Lila Shapiro

Intern
Versha Sharma



Subscribe to TPMCafe's feed.
Subscribe to TPMCafe's reader blog feed.

Advertise Liberally
Share
Close Social Web Email

"To" Email Address

Your Name

Your Email Address