Palestine First, Then Syria & Hebron Settler Outrage
Gershom Gorenberg, of the American Prospect, takes on the developing conventional wisdom to pursue Israeli-Syrian peace before moving to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
I'm with Gorenberg. An Israeli-Syrian agreement would be a good thing. But it would not resolve the bleeding heart that is at the core of the Middle East conflict and America's problems in the Muslim world: the Palestinian issue.
Nor is there any issue of fundamental injustice involved in the Israeli-Syrian dispute. The Israelis will have a viable home without the Golan, same with the Syrians. The Palestinians, of course, have nothing. Until they have their state, America will have nothing but problems in the Muslim world.
Achieving peace with Syria would be easier. It just wouldn't matter as much.
Also:
Gorenberg on the latest from Hebron where settlers continue their rampage against Palestinians.

















No; you're write, MJ.
But breaking up any piece of this fossilized puzzle would probably jostle the pieces and perhaps open up new possibilities that can't be foreseen right now.
November 28, 2008 11:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
In the article MJ references, Gorenberg says (italics mine):
"I don’t say this to relieve the Palestinians of responsibility for the corruption and infighting that culminated in the split between Fatah and Hamas, between the West Bank and Gaza. They’ve managed to achieve a failed state before independence."
Why is it that Jewish advocates for peace can't refrain from making denigrating comments about Palestinians? It betrays a great deal of disrespect and is one reason the Palestinians don't trust them.
I'd add that if the Palestinians have achieved a failed state, they probably couldn't have done it without all the help they've had from the occupying power.
November 28, 2008 11:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
So, what IS the correct thesis, then?
The Israelis have managed to sow discord among the Palestinians and they are mere pawns in the hands of the Zionists?
Not sure this is a denigrating comment about Palestinians, but about their actions.
More importantly, is the observation accurate? Or is it inaccurate? And are we saying it's accurate or not in a technical sense or even taking the larger situation into view, i.e., the overwhelming reality of life under occupation?
November 28, 2008 12:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tell you what makes Jews, or this Jew, mistrust Muslims...
When they decide they are striking back against injustice in Palestine by killing Jews in Mumbai...or Buenos Aires.
Those actions make me think it's a pretty good idea to have a Jewish state that doesn't take any shit.
November 28, 2008 12:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tintin, you won't get any arguments from me on the need for Israel. To secure it, it needs to end the occupation. Mumbai demonstrates yet again that you can't jeopardize the only Jewish country in the world to please a bunch of fanatic settlers.
November 28, 2008 12:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree, MJ
November 28, 2008 3:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
The "correct thesis" is simply that if one really wants peace with the Palestinians one should refrain from insulting them.
It may be accurate that the person sitting across the table from me is ugly. But if I want to make a deal with that person, I'd do best to refrain from making snide remarks about his looks, accurate or not.
November 28, 2008 12:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, I agree. But Gorenberg isn't sitting down to negotiate. He's writing an analysis of the situation, yes?
Anyway, I apologize for my tone. It was uncalled for.
November 28, 2008 3:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
No need to apologize Tintin. I wasn't offended at all.
You're right that G. isn't actually at the negotiating table (at least as far as I know), but he is a pretty active, prominent, and widely published peace activist. And I assume he really wants to achieve the two-state solution he advocates for. However, by making snide remarks about the Palestinians he contributes to an atmosphere in which Palestinians are dismissed as inept, unsophisticated, foolish, etc. This tends to weaken Palestinian negotiating power, because it creates an atmosphere in which no one takes them or their demands all that seriously. It also leads to deep Palestinian frustration and distrust of the entire peace process and of the Israelis (and Jews and their Western allies in general) who they see as arrogant, dismissive, and prejudiced against them. So it isn't really helpful in bringing Palestinians on board.
November 28, 2008 4:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think Yose Sarid explains most clearly why Israel is now thinking abouut Syria first:
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1041747.html
In short it is an excuse to change the subject any time pressure to resolve the Palestinian issue becomes too intense. He also points out that if an agreement with Syria is in danger of being reached, it is time to start talking with the Palestinians again.
November 28, 2008 5:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tried to read the article, but the link didn't work for me.
The only thing I don't see in this analysis is the role of the other parties in whether negotiations go forward.
The background assumption seems to be that, if only Israel would say "yes to peace," the other parties would there with open arms.
One's feelings about Israel aside, I'm not sure that's an accurate analysis. For example, in another area, now that Obama is elected, the Iranians seem to be doing some back pedaling on sitting down without preconditions.
And without getting into the tired "no partner for peace" discussion, it does seem to be a problem if Fatah and Hamas can't come to terms with each other.
Then again, there's the problem of the electoral weakness of Israel's leaders. Can they put it all on the table without being thrown out of power?
They need someone who is unimpeachable in terms of his credentials; and even then, like Rabin, he risks getting bumped off.
November 30, 2008 3:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Achieving peace with Syria would be easier. It just wouldn't matter as much."
Perhaps. But could it not set up a momentum? Would it not show the settlers where the wind was blowing from?
November 28, 2008 1:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Davidp, I think peace with Syria is an end to be pursued in its own right and don't see any reason why it can't be pursued simultaneously with a deal to resolve the Palestinian issue.
The main point of Aaron David Miller's op-ed was really about the low prospects for a two-state solution being agreed upon anytime soon (or maybe anytime, period). At the end of his article, he advises Obama to try to manage the I-P conflict, "but [to quote Miller's own words] don't think you can solve it; you can't." He suggests as an alternative focusing on achieveing peace between Israel and Syria, which he believes might be more likely. I'm not sure Miller is really trying to replace negotiations about Palestine with negotiations about Syria. I think he's really just saying negotiations to achieve a two-state solution are dead (at least for the foreseeable future). He then offers up the suggestion of trying for something achievable that would also be good.
The real interesting notion in Miller's article is not about Syria, but about the death of the two-state solution. More and more of us are reaching the conclusion that the notion that the right solution is the two-state solution is wrong--and that all negotiations to achieve a two-state solution are therefore either (1) exercises in futility that do nothing but delay whatever the real solution will be or (2) a cynical attempt to purposely delay a solution to allow Israel to continue it's current path of slowly wearing down the Palestinians and settling their land.
November 28, 2008 2:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
"But it would not resolve the bleeding heart that is at the core of the Middle East conflict and America's problems in the Muslim world: the Palestinian issue."
Dear Clueless,
The Muslim world sided with the Nazis during World War II. America's problems with the Muslim world predate the existence of Israel.
What exactly did India do to deserve the slaughter of its civilians by jihadists? Did it occupy the West Bank and the Golan Heights? Did it build an Apartheid Wall? Did it damage Palestinian olive groves?
The jihadists intend to murder all infidels. Were there any justice they would start with those of you infidels who obsessively appease them.
Sure looking forward to Rosy's indignant column unequivocally condemning the murder of those in Mumbai's Chabad House, people who were slaughtered by Muslims specifically because they were Jewish.
That column should arrive about the Twelfth Of Never, but coming soon will be several disordered screeds viciously excoriating AIPAC.
In recent years, Muslims have committed murder in Jewish community centers from Seattle and San Francisco to London and Mumbai. Meanwhile, Rosenberg rages about Jewish hatred of Islam.
Can you say, "Rosy is divorced from reality and resides in an inverted universe?"
I knew you could!
November 28, 2008 3:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
FOR BOB LANE:
FROM "THE ORIGIN OF THE PALESTINE-ISRAEL CONFLICT"
(PUBLISHED BY JEWS FOR JUSTICE IN THE MIDDLE EAST)
Shamir proposes an alliance with the Nazis
“As late as 1941, the Zionist group LEHI, one of whose leaders, Yitzhak Shamir, was later to become a prime minister of Israel, approached the Nazis, using the name of its parent organization, the Irgun (NMO)…[Their proposal stated:] ‘The establishment of the historical Jewish state on a national and totalitarian basis and bound by a treaty with the German Reich would be in the interests of strengthening the future German nation of power in the Near East… The NMO in Palestine offers to take an active part in the war on Germany’s side’….The Nazis rejected this proposal for an alliance because, it is reported, they considered LEHI’s military power ‘negligable.’ ” Allan Brownfield, “The Washington Report on Middle Eastern Affairs”, July/August 1998."
SOURCE - http://www.cactus48.com/truth.html
November 28, 2008 5:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
FOR BOB LANE:
....Ibrahim also sent a warning message to Israel by seizing Chabad House in Mumbai, reportedly a haven for right-wing Jewish Orthodox groups and Israeli military "trainers" who pose as backpackers on holiday in Kashmir during their reconnaissance missions. Apparently, the Israelis' uncouth behavior toward Kashmiri locals, including cheating taxi drivers and lodges, became known to Ibrahim who figured he could also take advantage of his assault on Mumbai to teach the Israelis a couple of lessons. The Israelis are in Kashmir to train Indians on their side of the India-Pakistan Kashmiri Line of Control. The Israelis maintain a military training facility, known as the Ibex Center, outside of Leh, the capital of Ladakh. There, the Israelis train Tibetan exiles and local Buddhist soldiers who serve in the Ladakh Scouts, the mountain commandos who patrol the Indian side of the Line of Control and the Siachen Glacier. Also trained by the Israelis is the "Tibetan Army," the Indian Army unit also known as the Special Frontier Force. The training takes place at the Mussorie parajump base in northern India. Kashmiri separatists claim Israeli trainers have served with Tibetan commandos in putting down insurgencies in Assam and Manipur in northeastern India.
The Israelis began operating out of Chabad House after receiving a contract in 1996, a year after a group of Western tourists were captured by militants in Kashmir. A Norwegian was beheaded in the incident. The attack was condemned by every mujahedin group in Kashmir and Pakistan. Some blamed Israelis for the kidnapping of the Westerners in exchange for the security contract and the use of Indian Air Force bases in Jammu, part of the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir. The Jammu bases are within a 20-minute striking range of Pakistan's nuclear facilities and missile bases. Pakistani ISI alleges that Israeli fighter bombers as the Jammu bases are disguised with false Indian markings and are armed with nuclear weapons.
WMR's Asian intelligence sources report that Chabad Houses are fronts for Israeli military intelligence and Mafia activities in other Asian cities. In Bangkok, Israeli military pilots and drivers who stay at the Chabad House there train Thai Army commandos, divers, and pilots who are fighting a Muslim secessionist movement along the southern border with Malaysia. Bangkok police have long suspected Chabad House as a center for the Israeli Mafia, which runs its Ecstasy and Ice trade from Bangkok for all of Southeast and East Asia. The Israeli Mafia also reportedly runs heroin labs in Myanmar, where an Israeli military officer serves in Myanmar's feared military counter-intelligence agency......
SOURCE - http://www.waynemadsenreport.com/
November 28, 2008 5:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Dickerson, please go and play in your own crazed conspiacy sand box. This is insane:
So you think Italian mobsters are working with Israeli intelligence in India. This is not rational.
November 28, 2008 8:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
If you want to make a sustainable argument that the attack on the Chabad House at Mumbai may have been related to Israeli-Indian military and security cooperation, you can do ALOT better than Wayne Madsen.
Here is an article published on June 15, 2002 in the Milli-Gazette, an English language bi-weekly Indian Muslim publication (ISSN 0972-3366):
************
Tension bolsters Israel-India cooperation
By Zafarul-Islam Khan
There are constant Indo-Israeli contacts on various levels, especially in the realm of cooperation in "counter-terrorism" measures and purchase of Israeli arms. According to recent reports, Israel is about to overtake Russia as India's number one arms supplier.
This week an Israeli security delegation paid a secretive visit to India which was passingly reported in both Indian and Israeli media unlike earlier occasions when such visits were accorded full glare of media attention. India, of late, has realised that though it would like to strengthen its relations with Israel, it's best done behind the scenes. The current rulers of India are great fans of Israel and admire how this tiny country is braving all alone an ocean of Arab enemies.
Though there has been no official word from the Indian side, the Israeli Foreign Ministry spokesperson issued the following statement in Jerusalem last Sunday, June 2:
The second meeting of the India-Israel Joint Working Group on counter-terrorism was held in New Delhi on 27-28 May 2002. The Israeli delegation was led by Mr. Zvi Gabay, Deputy Director General in the Israel Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Major General Uzi Dayan, the National Security Advisor of Israel. The Indian delegation was led by Shri R.M. Abhyankar, Special Secretary (East) in the Ministry of External affairs. This dialogue was held in the context of India's cooperation with the international community to counter the scourge of terrorism and to address this problem in light of UN Security Council Resolution 1373."
Haaretz had disclosed on May 28 that "a high-ranking Israeli delegation left this week for India for talks on cooperation in the war against terror." The Israeli paper went on to say that "cooperation between Israel and India in the war against terror had increased markedly in the past two years."
Britain's authoritative defense publication, Jane's Terrorism & Security Monitor, had reported last August that Israel and India have formed a military relationship and that Israeli intelligence is active in Indian Kashmir. Jane's said on August 14 last year that "Israeli intelligence agencies have been intensifying their relations with India's security apparatus and are now understood to be heavily involved in helping New Delhi combat Islamic militants in the disputed province of Kashmir..."
However, the main field of Indo-Israeli cooperation is in the field of supply of arms to the awestruck Indian leaders who believe that Israel has every thing they need to fight "terrorism."
On December 27 last year Haaretz reported that Israel is trying to become number one arms supplier to India replacing Russia. It reported that no fewer than three official Israeli delegations visited India in recent weeks. The visits are a reflection of a flourishing bilateral relationship. So is the rapidly growing trade between the two countries, which has accelerated from a few million dollars in 1992 to some $600 million in exports to India - and another $600 million in imports - in 2000. And that doesn't count sales of weapons systems.
Haaretz went on to say that the security discussions that take place every six months between the two sides overshadow everything else. "These talks are comprehensive, and the most recent, taking place against the background of the terror attack on the U.S. and the war on Afghanistan, reflected the common strategic outlook and depth of security interests that form the foundation of the relationship between the two countries. More than ever, defense establishment leaders in both countries felt that they share a common fate. Both countries….the only democracies, with secular governments, neighboring a vast ocean of non-democratic Muslim states. They both have large Muslim minorities, and suffer from terror imported from neighboring Muslim countries - Israel from the Palestinian Authority, Syria, Lebanon, and Iran, and India from Pakistan," the paper said.
The paper added that "there is also something unexpected that the two countries share. In the wake of the September 11 terror attacks, both countries were left out of the U.S.-led coalition against terror. Washington did not want Israel in the coalition, in order to be able to include the Arab states; it needed Pakistan, originally the Taliban's sponsors, so it kept India at arms length. No wonder, then, that India, despite its huge size, feels, like Israel, that it has to build its own tools for protecting its citizens and borders from terrorism. Those were the subjects of discussion at the meeting that took place on November 21 at the Defense Ministry in Delhi."
In 1994, two years after diplomatic relations were established, then director general Maj. Gen. David Ivry signed an agreement with the Indian Defense Ministry for security cooperation between the two countries. As in the case of Israel's security relationship with Turkey, it was clear that the joint effort would lead to expanding bilateral ties on all levels. Indeed, cultural and commercial ties have increased dramatically since then, said the Haaretz report.
The "turning point," according to Haaretz, came in 1998 when elections led to a significant political change in India. The long-ruling Congress party, with its socialist outlook, lost to the BJP, the extremist Hindu party, and Atal Bihari Vajpayee became prime minister. Interior Minister L.K. Advani, the strongman in the party, is a great admirer of Israel. Ever since Indo-Israeli relations progressed by leaps and bounds. Big arms deals soon followed.
The first major weapons deal was for two Green Pine early warning stations against ground-to-ground missiles from Pakistan. That was a $400 million deal. Since September 11, the U.S. suspension of its sanctions on India opened up other possibilities.
According to the Haaretz report, Israel Aircraft Industries is the main body dealing with all weapons systems sales to India. Half a year ago it provided Barak naval missile systems for $300 million, and for about the same amount, sold India Searcher drones. The IAI has upgraded MiG-17 aircraft for tens of millions of dollars, while naval shipyards in India are working on Devorah V-2 patrol boats designed by the IAI for the Israeli navy. Israel Military Industries has sold some $100 million in munitions to India.
Non-state Israeli companies are also involved. Soltam has refitted Russian 133mm cannon into 155mm howitzers, as well as bidding for a half-billion dollar tender to fit canons on trucks. Four Israeli companies, including Elbit Systems and Tadiran Communications are bidding to upgrade T-72 tanks, another half-billion dollar deal. And Rafael, the state-owned corporation for weapons development, is hoping to provide Gil anti-tank missile systems. Meanwhile, the Indian air force is interested in Elisra electronic warfare systems.
But the crowning deal in the relationship is the deal that would supply three or four Phalcon airborne early wanting stations to India. The deal, worth $1 billion, came together after the U.S. scotched a similar deal between Israel and China.
Last year in July at IAI headquarters in Lod, the two countries signed an unprecedented agreement for cooperation between their aircraft industries, for a $2 billion technology transfer to India. One element of the agreement is a joint venture that would upgrade hundreds of outdated MiG 21s and 29s. The IAI document indicated that in the next five years another $2 billion in deals are in the offing with India.
Iansa, a journal on strategic studies published in India, came out with a stunning report last August, quoting defense sources there as saying that "Israel is positioned to replace Russia" as India's main weapons supplier. According to the journal, Israel is already the number two arms supplier after Russia. It says the deals so far signed or in the works with India are worth some $3 billion. India has become the main market for Israeli weapons systems - sales are already in the range of $800 million a year, about the same as sales to the U.S.
Most recently India has bought $35 million-worth advanced tactical radios from Israel's Tadiran Communications. This is in addition to $80 million worth medium-range tactical communications systems ordered by India from Tadiran, Jane's Defence Weekly said in its May 29 issue
Another report in the Times of India on June 2 said that India is taking further steps to bolster its air defence capabilities against incoming enemy aircraft and missiles. It has asked Israel to speed up the supply of long-range "Aerostat Programmable Radars." According to the report, India and Israel recently signed the agreement for the aerostat radars, basically sensors mounted on blimp-like large balloons tethered to the ground with cables. These radars can detect and track cruise missiles and low-flying aircraft much earlier than ground-based radars. As part of the effort to strengthen surveillance capabilities, defence ministry officials said top priority is also being accorded to upgrading border radar systems.
Meanwhile Israel has asked its citizens to leave India. In recent years India has become a favourite destination of Israeli youth and about 30,000 travel to the country every year, most of them after their mandatory army service. Only last month, the Israeli foreign ministry had advised Israelis not to travel to troubled areas in Jammu and Kashmir.
***************
So why quote a dubious source like Madsen when you can quote what Indian Muslims have actually been reading? This is not to say that reading such things would necessarily lead to an either an attack on the Chabad House in Mumbai or a justification of it.
November 29, 2008 11:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
I dunno. This strikes as garden variety military interactions between states. Tell me, which great power doesn't engage in this sort of exchange? And does it excuse the killing of innocent civilians? Moreover, this sort of action will only INCREASE this sort of cooperation, not bring an end to it.
Much is often made (rightly) about our killing civilians or threatening to bomb Iran only stiffens the resolve and resistance of the people and governments under attack.
Why don't the terrorists get their actions provoke the same sort of response? After this, I'm sure Indian security folks will be camping out permanently in Tel Aviv.
November 30, 2008 3:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think Yose Sarid explains most clearly why Israel is now thinking abouut Syria first:
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1041747.html
In short it is an excuse to change the subject any time pressure to resolve the Palestinian issue becomes too intense. He also points out that if an agreement with Syria is in danger of being reached, it is time to start talking with the Palestinians again.
November 28, 2008 6:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Absolutely right. Even Iraq had this going for it: we can't make peace till we have some crazed war, dreamed up by nuts like Wolfowitz. Great result we have from that, huh?
There's always something to do "first" -- this time it's Syria, unless that starts to succeed.
November 30, 2008 3:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
The "bleeding heart" had absolutely nothing to do with the stupid war of '06.
Nor does it motivate Bashar Assad to cut a deal with Israel.
Nor would have bupkes to do with a war with Iran.
Get real and stop blocking efforts to integrate Israel into the neighborhood. You are interfering with Israel's security and future economic interests.
It's a false choice. Our foreign policy is not a finite Israel-flavored pie that can only be sliced into so many pieces at a time.
HI TO MY 3 ANONYMOUS "FOLLOWERS"
November 28, 2008 8:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Anonymous?! Hi back, lally!
But while we're on the subject, I can't agree more with your characterization of this argument as a false choice.
November 29, 2008 10:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
LOL, BK.
You aren't visible on my very short "list" for some reason.
I find it puzzling that so many of the oldtimer pro-Israel activists are clinging to an out-of-date formula. Perhaps the years of "investment" in promoting it have clouded their eyes from seeing the new realities in the ME.
November 29, 2008 4:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why be against a possible peace deal with Syria? It has an actual government, and could be, finally, the third Arab country to recognize Israel. It's only been 60 years, after all.
Moreover, it just isn't the case that the "Palestine - Israel" dispute and Israel's occupation of some land is the cause of mideast strife. The PLO was founded BEFORE the 1967 war, so its object was (and remains) to "liberate" ALL of Israel from the Jews. Push them into the sea, etc.
Hey, I have long favored a 2 state solution, and withdrawal from most of the occupied lands, but you can't just blame Israel for the lack of this happening. A long line of Palestinian leaders (such as Arafat, although he was born in Egypt) have focused their attention and resources not in nation building but in provocation, mis-education and incitement. It continues with Hamas. TV shows for children like "Martyr Mouse" make it difficult for the Palestinian side to accept a two state solution. They are not taught about the 1947 and 1948 UN resolutions; only about those Israel is alleged to have violated.
A deal with Syria might encourage the Palestinian "moderates" we hear about but rarely hear from.
As for Chabad House being a front, etc., please have some decency at least while the bodies are still warm.
November 28, 2008 11:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Why be against a possible peace deal with Syria?"
I can't figure it, either. Regardless of where you sit in this conflict, it is a step forward and it could jostle the pieces in a way that makes it possible for other moves to take place.
November 30, 2008 4:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
MJ says:
Hmmm, move the Palestinians to the Golan?
November 29, 2008 8:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
That's constructive. Very good, John. Helpful.
November 30, 2008 3:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
There's one possible solution to negotiations about the Golan I'm surprised I never heard: why doesn't Israel offer to lease it for 99 years, as the British did with Hong Kong?
That would allow the Syrians to claim victory, that Israel recognized their sovereignty. It would allow Israel to hold a buffer that's important to their security, not to mention continued use of a great nature preserve and mediocre skiing.
In 99 years, the situation will hopefully have calmed down to the point where a turnover wouldn't be catastrophic. That worked well in Hong Kong.
November 29, 2008 9:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
For those of you just tuning in, I am repeat posting an excerpt of an excerpt of this column by Ari Shavit in Ha'aretz. He like MJ is a 'progressive', a '2-state solutioner', and all kinds of good things. He says there can not be any agreement with the Palestinians in the near future. This is an excellent summary of what this is the situation.
------------------------------------------------
Last update - 01:43 27/11/2008
Fake peace, real peace
By Ari Shavit
First, the bad news: More and more evidence suggests the odds of reaching an Israeli-Palestinian peace are slim. The first piece of evidence was provided by Ami Ayalon and Sari Nusseibeh. The document of understandings they formulated in 2002 is an impressive one that clearly and decisively speaks of a solution calling for two nation-states. The six Ayalon-Nusseibeh principles offer an historic breakthrough: The end of the occupation and realization of the Palestinians' right to self-determination, in exchange for the Palestinians forsaking the right of return.
Yet in recent months, Nusseibeh has recanted, turning his back on the two-state solution. A few things have happened to Ayalon as well. As a result, the "People's Choice" initiative, which gave hope to many Israelis and even generated attention from the international community, has collapsed. A courageous attempt to end the conflict via an agreement lies in ruins.
The second piece of evidence suggesting that peace with the Palestinians is far off was provided by the Saudi initiative. The strategic concept behind the initiative is a correct one: providing a pan-Arab wrapping around an Israeli-Palestinian accord. Yet the wording of the initiative is impossible to accept. It speaks of the "achievement of a just solution to the Palestinian refugee problem, to be agreed upon in accordance with UN General Assembly Resolution 194." Resolution 194 grants all Palestinians the right to return to the homes they left in 1948. Therefore, what the Saudi initiative really offers is an agreed-upon, just and tranquil way to liquefy the Jewish state.
The initiative has received outstanding public interest, but it does not offer a two-state solution to two peoples but a two-state solution to one people - the Palestinian people.
The third and most convincing sign that there is no chance for peace now with the Palestinians was provided by none other than Ehud Olmert. The enthusiasm triggered by the dovish and brave declarations recently uttered by the outgoing prime minister precluded an in-depth discussion on their significance. In the past year, the Israeli leadership has offered its Palestinian counterpart a return to the 1967 borders, division of Jerusalem and even absorption of refugees. If Ehud Barak's peace experiment of 2000 was a flawed experiment, Ehud Olmert's peace experiment in 2008 is a flawless experiment. This time, Israel was not represented by some dark, military-minded figure, but a wholesome man of peace whose positions are those of Yossi Beilin.
Nonetheless, the Olmert-Abu Mazen process failed. Even though Israel went all the way, it did not find a Palestinian partner. Paradoxically, the prime minister who adopted the worldview of the Geneva Initiative is the one who toppled the Geneva Initiative. The real legacy Olmert leaves behind is definitive proof that there is no Palestinian partner ready to pay the ideological and political price necessary to establish peace-for-two-states.
The problem of the occupation remains an existential, moral one which demands a realistic and comprehensive solution. Yet whoever thought it could be dealt with by means of an immediate political agreement with the Palestinian Authority was proved wrong. The lesson accumulated from Oslo, Camp David, Taba, Geneva, the People's Choice, the Saudi Initiative and Olmert-Abu Mazen is that the Beilin way has run its course and reached a dead end.
------> cut rest of article
MJ, if you want to get rid of the Judea/Samaria settlements, I suggest you get the Palestinians to sign a peace agreement with Israel. You see here the Barak and Olmert agreed to a withdrawal to the pre-67 lines. This is the offer. If Obama ever gets Netanyahu (assuming he will become Prime Minister) in the same room with Abbas, this is the opening position. If Abbas gives up the Palestinian "right of return", even a "right-wing" gov't would have to go along with. So the problem is that the Palestinian refuse to give this up. They never will. Arafat told Clinton he would be assassinated if he gave it up. A sobering thought. The example of Sadat remains on everyone's minds.
November 29, 2008 11:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
Assad is not interested in peace. He is interested in a "peace process". He is an assassin (remember Hariri and the numerous other victims in Lebanon?) and runs a totalitarian dictatorship. To think you can make peace with someone like him is insanity. I don't care if "unnamed sources " in the IDF are quoted in Left-wing newspapers like Ha'aretz advocating this ridiculous policy, no one with half a brain in Israel wants to give up the Golan to this gang in Damascus.
He is allied with Iran and HIZBULLAH. HIZBULLAH has won a major victory in Lebanon, gaining veto-power over all government policy in Beirut while running an essentially autonomous mini-state in the south, up to the Israeli border. Iran is believed to be on the verge of getting "the bomb". A well-known defeatist Israeli general/politician (are there any that aren't, other than Boogey Ya'alon?) said many Israelis would flee the country if that were to happen (I don't believe this but what is important is not how I perceive the situation but how the Arabs and Iranians see it). Thus, Israel would end up panicking and giving Syria unilaterally what it wanted without the Syrians having to give up anythings or making any "traitorous" compromises, as Assad sees the situation. They see the Syrian/Iranian/HIZBULLAH/HAMAS axis as being on the ascendancy, and the "moderate" Arabs plus Israel and the West in decline. Just by having a "peace process", the Americans and Europeans have more or less acquiesced to the Syrian/HIZBULLAH hegemony in Lebanon, plus given economic rewards, WITHOUT ASSAD GIVING UP ANYTHING AT ALL.
A peace agreement with Israel would end up destroying the Assad's Alawite dictatorship (Walid Jumblatt in Lebanon has repeatedly stated this). The Alawites are a hated minority that is related to the Shi'ites (Syrian is majority Sunni) and they use the permanent mobilization of the country against the "Zionist enemy" as a way of justifying their corrupt, repressive regime. If "peace" ever came, it would destablize the regime.
Many of the same reasons explain why Abbas and the Palestinians don't want an agreement with Israel on any terms. Abbas' regime in Judea/Samaria is being lavished with funds from the US and EU and Abbas and his regime are lining their pockets with this money that comes with basically no strings attached. These handouts cover the majority of the operating budget of the Palestinian Authority. In reality, there are strings theoretically attached, but the PA ends up coming every year to the US and EU and says "you have to keep giving us the money even if we don't live up to the conditions you demand like accountability, collecting taxes, etc, because if you don't, HAMAS will take over"...the PA really has the US and EU over a barrel. Why should Abbas endanger his life and his regime by making concessions to Israel when he is living so well now without a state?
November 29, 2008 11:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
Damn, YBD/b_k132.
I need to let you in on something. Walid Jumblatt is considered a joke. He is the posterboy for why Lebanon's factionalism has been so formidable for those seeking to make alliances. Jumblatt says one thing one day, then the complete opposite thing the next day. When you run across some statement or another from good 'ol Walid, just roll your eyes, giggle and move on. BTW, Syria hasn't been violently factionalised for years and Assad is "Westernized" and secular (both factors in his success)
"Assad sees the situation. They see the Syrian/Iranian/HIZBULLAH/HAMAS axis as being on the ascendancy, and the "moderate" Arabs plus Israel and the West in decline. Just by having a "peace process", the Americans and Europeans have more or less acquiesced to the Syrian/HIZBULLAH hegemony in Lebanon, plus given economic rewards, WITHOUT ASSAD GIVING UP ANYTHING AT ALL."
I appreciate the fact that at least YOU continue to use parantheses when writing "moderate" in reference to the KSA, Jordan and Egypt. It's such a bogus sales job to pretend those regimes are, in any way, "moderate". In one way or another, they are all puppets, especially the pitiful Hashemite dumpling.
The advantage to Israel in cutting a deal with Assad is that he is smarter and tougher than the boobs in DC who have done their best to isolate him and failed. Assad sees the advantages to Syria on their own merits and doesn't need to be bribed/coerced into the "cold peace" deals that Israel has with OUR mutual "moderate" friends. BTW, the only "economic REWARDS" I'm aware of may be Europeon business investments in Syria.
(In purely pragmatic economic terms, b_k132, think about the advantages to having secure Med corridor seabed pipelines running along the coastline of a Syria at peace with Israel.)
Those who believe that Hezbollah=Syria and/or Iran=Hamas are ignorant fools. It's not helpful to hold on to distorted pysops or ideologically-based versions of reality when objectively analyzing Israel's challenges in the region.
On "Syria Comment", an anti-Syrian Lebanese contributor says the following:
[Comment by Qifa Nabki in Beirut, sent to SC by email]
"I was talking to a hard-core Aounist last night… he feels certain that the Hizb will have no problem with peace. He said: “Already, Hizbullah functions as a security blanket for Israel. We used to see Palestinian guerillas everywhere in the south. They have vanished. After peace, Hizbullah will easily continue being what it has already become: a national defense.”
After a deal, as Miller writes, the security architecture of the region will change so dramatically, it’s hard to see why the Americans are not supporting it. They have to take the long view… stop trying to stick it to Bashar about Iran and Hizbullah and just read the writing on the wall."
As I've been saying for quite awhile now, it serves Israel's security interests to have Hezbollah in control of their own territory in Lebanon. Some of those "Palestinian guerrillas" are Hezbollah's enemies just as much as they are Israel's enemies.
The worst of them, the salafist jihadi AQ types are supported by guess which one of OUR "moderate" Arab friends plus OUR ally, Hariri inc?
Effin' Lebanon.................
It really is all about taking the LONG VIEW.
PS. Those Haaretz "unnamed sources" you deride are from Israel's defense infrastructure. You, your settler buds and Israel's bestest American "friends" evidently think "they" know better than those who have dedicated their professional lives to Israel's security.
November 29, 2008 4:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, those "dedicated professionals" who brought Arafat to the country, turned him loose to kill or wound thousands of Israelis, who then led to the night flight from Lebanon in 2000, which then led to the Palestinian terror war, to the flight from Gaza which led to an ongoing war there, the kidnapping of Shalit, the ongoing tension on the northern border, the killing of Goldwasser and Regev along with other soldiers, holding their bodies captive leading to a disastrous Lebanon II war, the first-time release of a live terrorist in return for only dead bodies. These "dedicated professional" are turning the IDF into an Arab army in which senior officers are chosen for "political reliability" (i.e. support for the phony "peace process") rather than competence.
Why do you think the Likud has a large lead in the polls now? People see the disaster the Oslo "Peace Gang" has brougth on Israel and they are sick of it.
No doubt there are fine officers and soldiers in the IDF. But the political echelons have for years promoted those whom they feel comfortable with, not those who can fight. Somehow Boogey Ya'alon, someone willing to fight, was in the right place at the right time to take on Arafat's terror machine, but he was ousted because he opposed the flight from Gaza, so we got fly-boy Dan Halutz, the biggest imbecile to be Chief of Staff in history.
Regarding your "Aounist friend" (hasn't Aoun flip-flopped between being a Christian hardliner and an Syrian puppet? Is he better than Jumblatt who has always opposed the Syrians and whose father was murdered by them?). Did you read the article a couple of weeks ago in the New York describing the HIZBULLAH's youth movement, which is similar to the Hitlerjugend, with massive political indocrination and virulent, explicit Judeophobia. They aren't educating their next generation for peace.
In any event, you did not refute anything I said.
November 29, 2008 10:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
YBD/b_k132.
I'm not interested in your version of the refutation game. Such interchanges tend to quickly devolve into arguing about irrelevancies such as whether or not the nabka happened or nonsensical crap such as your allegations that I have an Aounist friend.
It's actually rather stupid to argue about which Lebanese is "better" than any other because nearly all of them have the blood of their fellow citizens on their hands, including Israel's Shiite allies, the SLA. Of course, the SLA "allies" were discarded once any usefulness to Israel was rendered moot. The murdered Harriri had Saudi citizenship yet I see no complaining about his ties to THAT regime. Since the Saudis act as US proxies in Lebanon, I suppose that can be overlooked.
If you want to admire the idiot Jumblatt and think he speaks for anyone but his own silly self, be my guest. Ahmed Chalabi was another great favorite because he told suckers, including Israeli intelligence (re Ron Arad), what they wanted to hear.
BTW, you forget to list the enabling of Hamas in your litany of bad decisions by Israeli professionals. Welcome to the world of unintended consequences. Unfortunately, when it came to Lebanon, Israeli military intelligence warnings that the factionalism there made alliances the stuff of tissue paper were ignored. Decades of Israeli attempts to enlist treacherous Lebanese factions was a consequence of that failure to heed the advice of those who knew that virtually none of them could be trusted.
It must gall you no end that Israeli analysts also say that Hezbollah's word, once given, is more reliable; as the ceasefires religiously observed by their side demonstrate.
Your former country beats all comers, though, by our dirty deals with the mujahadeen in Afghanistan and later the ISI and the Taliban. We also refused to join forces with the only Afghan (the democratically inclined leader of the Northern Alliance, Shah Massoud), who had a prayer of running the place because HE was allied with Iran.
Dan Halutz does seem to be an imbecile. His actions during the stupid war of '06 aside, that business with his stock broker on the day "Operation Just Reward" commenced was breathtakingly dumb. Sharon seemed to function as his own Chief of Staff and his appointment of a flyboy to the position certainly indicates where Sharon thought Israel's future military priorities would be focused and it wasn't in Lebanon's airspace. The IAF has had free reign to cruise around Lebanon and bomb selected targets there and within Syria's borders for years.
Just to let you know, I haven't considered the NYT a reliable source on the ME since the runup to the war on Iraq. The Israeli media was far more informative (much to Rummy's dismay). In general, the American MSM is useless when it comes to accurate and unbiased reporting on the region.
December 1, 2008 4:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Gorenberg's article contains numerous inaccuracies:
(1) The House in Hevron was bought and paid for by the Jewish purchasers. The Supreme Court does not dispute this. A judicial procedure is being conducted by lower courts to clarify some documents and to formally dismiss the claim of the seller that he retracted the sale (Palestinians who sell land to Jews face the death penalty, so the seller's behavior is actually quite understandable). The Jews who purchased the building have, in addition to the documents regarding the sale, but also videos showing the seller accepting the money, acknowledging the fact and that he made improvements to the building at their request.
(2) No acid was thrown at the IDF troops who expelled the Jews from Kfar Darom. A physician who checked those who supposedly had the acid thrown on them confirmed this.
(3) Gorenberg refers to a member of the 1980's Jewish underground as a "terrorist". I don't understand why in his articles he has written over the years why he hasn't referred to "Arafat the terrorist", or "Abbas the terrorist".
The Supreme Court decision to expel the Jews from the House in Hevron is totally political. It has nothing to do with "the rule of law". A former Supreme Court justice himself has said this. There has been a major media campaign against Judea/Samara settlers in recent weeks against them with all sorts of false allegations (the "settler thugs" and the mythical crimes they are alleged to have committed that "everyone knows about"). This is no doubt due to the despair of the anti-Settler Left in Israel due to the refusal of the Palestinians to
agree to make a peace deal with Israel in which the settlements would be removed.
November 29, 2008 11:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well, it's obvious that big leadership is going to be required from the White House if we are to get peace. The kind that the Clinton administration was unwilling to apply or too incompetent to provide (eh, Rahm?), and that the Bush administration didn't give a hoot about except for that pathetic Condie.
There will never be any shortage of little minds (and bigots) telling us that now is not the time, or that it is all too risky, or it won't help anyway, or that those heinous Palestinians are lucky to have what they got now. Resolving the problem requires an extended, intense exertion. And yeah, of course Syria is just the latest intentional distraction meant to change the subject (plus Damascus loves the empty talk because it gives them all sorts of credibility among the naieve).
November 30, 2008 3:45 AM | Reply | Permalink