TPMCafe
« SOCIALISM IN ONE FAILED INDUSTRY: Onward for Labor | Home | How Obama is Already Taking Charge »

Why We're Rescuing Wall Street and Not the Auto Industry: Citigroup Versus General Motors

user-pic

Citigroup was once the biggest U.S. bank. General Motors was once the biggest automaker in the world. Now, both are on the brink. Yet Citigroup is likely to be rescued within days. General Motors may not be rescued at all. Why the difference?

Viewed from Wall Street, Citi is too big and important to be allowed to fail while GM is simply a big, clunky old manufacturing company that can go into chapter 11 and reorganize itself. The newly conventional wisdom on the Street is that the failure of the Treasury and the Fed to save Lehman Brothers was a grave mistake because Lehman's demise caused creditors and investors to panic, which turned the sub-prime loan mess into a financial catastrophe -- a mistake that must not occur again. So, by this view, the government must do everything and anything to keep Citi alive. But GM? GM is just ... jobs and communities.

The Street's view of the world is fundamentally flawed. Banks are important to the economy because they're financial "intermediaries." They connect savers with investors and borrowers. This is a vital function, but there's nothing magical about it. At any given time the world contains a vast pool of money that can be put to all sorts of uses. Financial intermediaries simply link the pool to the uses.

To be sure, savers need to believe that intermediaries are trustworthy; otherwise, savers will prefer the underside of their mattresses. That's why governments regulate intermediaries, insure deposits, and do whatever else needs to be done to make savers feel safe. What governments and societies fear most are "runs" on banks -- panicked efforts by depositors to pull their money out all at once, before banks can possibly collect the money from all those who have used it to borrow or invest. That's what happened in the 1930s.

But the current panic on Wall Street is not a "run" in this sense. It has almost nothing to do with banks' roles as financial intermediaries. It's a run on the shares of Wall Street banks, not a run on the pool of savings they oversee. The mutual funds, pension funds, and deposits they hold are perfectly safe.

Before the asset bubbles burst, financial institutions were generating whopping profits, so naturally they attracted many investors and creditors. After the burst, the profits disappeared and their share prices plunged. These days, you'd be hard pressed to find many people who want to invest in or lend to financial institutions. So what? You'd be just as hard pressed to find people wanting to invest or lend to the auto companies. Lehman's demise cost many investors and creditors lots of money, but they were investors and creditors in Lehman, not in the real economy. Citigroup had a market value of $274 billion at the end of 2006. Now its value is about $21 billion. That's awful news for Citi, its executives and traders, and its investors and creditors. But it's not necessarily awful news for the economy as a whole. Even if Citigroup were to go belly up, the real economy would not be seriously harmed. The funds overseen by Citi would be remain; fund managers would shift them to other banks.

So Citigroup is not much different from General Motors. It's a company that once made lots of money but, through a series of management blunders, is now losing money big time. Citi's shareholders and creditors are taking a beating, just like the shareholders and creditors of GM.

So why save Citi and not GM? It's not at all clear. In fact, there may be more reason to do the reverse. GM has a far greater impact on jobs and communities. Add parts suppliers and their employees, and the number of middle-class and blue-collar jobs dependent on GM is many multiples that of Citi. And the potential social costs of GM's demise, or even major shrinkage, is much larger than Citi's -- including everything from unemployment insurance to lost tax revenues to families suddenly without health insurance to entire communities whose infrastructure and housing may become nearly worthless. I'm not arguing that GM should be bailed out; as I've noted elsewhere, GM's creditors, shareholders, executives, and workers should have to make substantial sacrifices before taxpayers should be expected to sacrifice as well.

Nonetheless, Citi is about to be bailed out while GM is allowed to languish. That's because Wall Street's self-serving view of the unique role of financial institutions is mirrored in the two agencies that run the American economy -- the Treasury and the Fed. Their job, as they see it, is to keep the financial economy "sound," by which they mean keeping Wall Street's own investors and creditors reasonably happy.

Because the public doesn't understand the intricacies of finance, it's easily persuaded that this is definition of "soundness" is the same as keeping savings flowing to the banks so that the banks can lend to them to Main Street. That's why the public and its representatives have committed $700 billion of taxpayer money to Wall Street and another $500 to $600 billion of subsidized loans to the Street from the Fed -- bailing out the investors and creditors of every major bank, including , any moment, Citi -- only to discover, at the end of this frantic and unbelievably expensive exercise, that American jobs and communities are more endangered than they were at the start.


92 Comments

| Leave a comment
user-pic

The question nagging at my mind is, are Paulson and his group acting in good faith, because they really do believe that financiers are the most important people in America, or is this just a scam to funnel the last drops of cash to the financiers before they all bail out?

I'm inclined to believe it is the latter, but I also think they are a self deluded bunch.

user-pic

They're not acting in good faith. The oligarchy's big plan for global economic hegemony have taken a poop - big time. From Russia to Iraq to Venezuela their plans have fallen flat, and the expected payoff ain't in the mail.

So now Paulson and co. have to step in to make sure these creeps don't suffer any justice for their crimes. IMO, this explains Paulson's handling of the matter.

user-pic

I am totally unconvinced that Paulson is acting in good faith, or alternatively, with any real grasp of the situation. I think he let Lehman collapse because they were a primary competitor of his old firm (and because he thought they could go down). He's either in the tank for Wall Street firms and executives or he still thinks the ideology of unregulated markets is correct. Either of these alternatives is unacceptable in the person who is administering our nation's finances. It will hurt more in the short term, but Congress needs to cut off any further actions on the economic crisis until Obama takes office and someone new can be in charge of Treasury. Paulson has given the American people absolutely no reason to have confidence in his judgment.

user-pic

Good question. I think it nags at a lot of minds.

When RR says, "Financial intermediaries simply link the pool to the uses," is he not dismissing the role of banks a little too lightly, though? I thought much of this slowdown was a lack of linkage between businesses and money (credit) and between consumers and money (credit) -- and that damaged "intermediaries" were the kink in the hose.

user-pic

No. The choke point in the credit markets is between the banks themselves, and between other major holders of credit instruments - central banks, sovereign funds, and the like.

Think of it like a mob poker game. Each player has figured out that they're holding more chips than there is money to back those chips, so none of them wants to bet. Of course, what this means is that the game is over.

Usually at this point the game banker gets shot.

user-pic

Too big to fuel and too big to fail.
Let them both reorganize and start over with new management.

user-pic

Why not skip the reorg and go straight to new management?

user-pic

The economic costs of a GM failure would not just cause a "ripple effect," it would be a tsunami.

user-pic

You hit the nail on its head, Spider. A lot of TPMers seem to hate the auto companies for reasons that are unclear to me. Quite frankly, they sound like far right fiscal conservatives.

user-pic

Right on the economics, SpiderPig, and un-mentioned in RR's piece is the shock to our national security and R&D interests that losing a major segment of our productive manufacturing base would entail.

Just think of the machine tools and robotics that would go undeveloped (or developed overseas) if we lose a significant share of global auto production.

user-pic

I heard your piece on Marketplace the other night, Mr. Reich. Thanks for the breath of sanity. I have been wondering if I'm going crazy lately, or if we're just seeing the results of a very corrupt, spoiled and amoral policy by very corrupt, spoiled and amoral people play out to it's logical conclusion.

I sincerely hope that these institutions that are "too big to fail" will be under scrutiny by Obama appointed anti-trust lawyers. They need to be broken apart into digestible bits so they can no longer be a threat to the 90% of us who are their unwitting victims.

Enough. Let's help those who aren't motivated solely by greed and their misplaced sense of superiority and entitlement. One thing that's been missing from all this is a sense of shame, or any real humanity from those who have proven to be such epic failures by any and all measures. Our society and future will be better off without them leading us over the cliff of their narrow self-interest.

I was very glad to see 'our own' Elizabeth Warren on Obama's transition team, and I appreciate your speaking out, too. We need smart and principled—not ignorant and unethical—leaders now.

user-pic

It would please me if anyone could show me a Automobile Mfg. who went into Chapter 11, anywhere in the world and survived. These the 3 will do Chapter 7. The result of this happening will result in another great depression that the US will emerge from as a much weaken nation. We will be the only industrialized nation with NO domestic car production. We will be facing a 10 year depression and no amount of money shoveled at the banks will put people to work. Banks don't sell products they just rent the use of money

Barbian FL

user-pic

Thank you for saying so, Mr Reich. I've been walking around with my jaw hanging open for the last 3 weeks. Normally sane, progressive people (no, not all of them, but enough to shock me) are sounding like corporate shills for Ayn Rand.

Here's what I don't get: Why is it always fine to go into debt to wage war, but not peace? Highly rhetorical, but apropos I think.

To hell with the budget hawks! They only believe in free-market capitalism insofar as it serves their right-wing masters.

I say we blow 5 Trillion on peaceful reforms for a damned change. At least then our children will have gotten something for our profligacy. And who knows? If we invest wisely, perhaps we could usher in such prosperity that the tab could be paid off early.

user-pic

But what about this? If GM fails, it goes out of business, & maybe I won't be able to get parts for my Chevy Venture. If Citibank fails -- to the extent it has no cash it has supposedly been holding in trust for bank customers -- the taxpayer-funded FDIC has to cover $$ billions of its bad debt. Isn't that a distinction that IS a difference?

The Constant Weader at www.RealityChex.com

user-pic

If there were any accuracy to your characterization, you would be correct.

Citibank's failure has nothing to do with depository reserves held in trust. They are now under capitalized because of:

1) rapidly deflating value of assets.

2) falling share price.

3) both of which, are direct consequences of their criminal participation and complicity in the creation of a monstrous Ponzi enterprise.

user-pic

AND, if GM fails then all the hundreds of thousands of people working in supporting industries will be put out of work (industries like parts manufacturers). Then we will need to cover $$billions in unemployment, lost property taxes, and lost demand for financing from the likes of Citibank.

user-pic

Could someone clarify how many employees Citibank and GM have, respectively? And how many folks total would be affected by the demise of each?

(One can get overwhelmed by the constant stream of big numbers.)

user-pic
user-pic

A few months ago I re-read an old radical novel from the 1930's, a piece of left social realism from the period, based substantially in fact, Ruth McKenney's "Industrial Valley". It is the story behind the story of the organization of the United Rubber Workers in Akron Ohio during the bottom of the Great Depression, a scene which would be repeated at GM's Fischer Body in Cleveland, and then in the famous Flint Sit-down strike. Essentially she was asking the question of how much pain otherwise passive working class folk can take before they either pick up a pitchfork and go after the Sheriff's deputies, (as they did in Akron), or, more productively, hold massive organizing meetings and make concrete demands. But I didn't re-read primarily for that action, instead, I had just finished Jeff Sharlet's "The Family" -- his study of the evangelical/political organization so powerful these days in DC and elsewhere, because I wanted to refresh my memory as to how "The Oxford Movement" -- what later became Moral Re-Armament was used during the 30's to distract from efforts by workers to organize and lay demands. The Oxford Movement and many of its spin off's are the Roots of what is today, The Family.

I am not convinced the public is yet ready to become less passive in the face of the onesidedness of the Bail-out efforts. I think too much of the residual notion that the "Market" is somehow the divine decider still persists, and until people realize, and internalize the reality that Markets can be and have been manipulated in the interests of the few -- all too many people will remain essentially passive, and in strange ways continue to believe their condition is the will of the divine. And until those beliefs and the response they engender are openly questioned, the political response will continue to focus on the few -- the Wall Street Crowd, the Financial structures, and all -- and not on how the ordinary Joe and Josephine earn a living, feed their families, pay their debts, and hopefully get a little enjoyment out of life.

What will be the spark that will defeat the passive response? Any ideas?

user-pic

I'm not so sure about that. As a leftie, I can't trust my own views to be typical of the public's, but I do office with Joe, the MBA, and Joe, Catholic father of four, Vietnam vet, and lifelong Republican is quietly but intensely mad as hell. And he's not mad at GM's unionized work force.

I mentioned to him my surprise at the outrage coming from a pundit who I usually find rather cynical and centrist and Joe tells me, well, of course, it's hitting him now, it's no longer just the blue collar guy he figured could retrain or move on and start over.

The professional and corporate middle classes get this crisis. It's an existential threat to their lifestyle, their sense of selves, the future of the their families, and their values.

I sense a slowly building anger out here and I sense a deep feeling of betrayal among those who have the most invested in the system. I don't know what that's going to lead to but all those flat earth Republicans still spouting Reaganomics better watch out for the mob and if they're watching the inner city they're going to get hit from behind because I expect the mob is going to come from the suburbs.

user-pic

H. L. Mencken had a relevant comment.
"Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin to slit throats."

user-pic

I suspect you are right Bluebell and what you predict is what Howard Zinn identified as "the coming revolt of the guards" in his first edition of A People's History of the United States. Personally, I can't wait.

user-pic

I was mostly happy to see your article. But the reason for TARP was a "systemic" weakness in finance coupled with scare talk from Paulson after months if not years of inaction.

We have a pretty good idea of GM's internal and external problems (at least in principle). We have no clue about Citi's (and "the system's") leveraged problems in CDSes etc. Thus the scare talk in re either faction is different. Both include "tsunami" warnings which are rather vague and largely unjustified by the authors.

I would like to believe that Citi is simply under attack for its stock price. But some Lehman assets were auctioned off at what, $.09 on the dollar? How is Citi all that different?

Let's also be clear about "fail". As others have noted Chapter 7 and 11 are quite different, and some have proposed "pre-packaged" or "managed" bankruptcies to smooth any needed reorganizations in Detroit. In a sense GM and Citi, as symbols, have already failed. The question is, how can we restore confidence while also beginning to restore the fundamentals on which these symbols and their counterparties (intended both ways) supposedly base their respective businesses?

If real demand for cars is down for the medium term, GM is in real trouble. If demand is down due to the oil price spike and GMAC's finance problems, that's something quite different.

What is the supply and demand criterion for Citi and other "systemice" finance companies?


user-pic

Secretary Reich, I think there are two questions here. Re GM, are they in trouble and should they be saved. I believe the answer is unequivocally affirmative to both questions.

Why are they in trouble? Poor management? I personally disagree with those who believe Rick Wagoner should be fired. I follow this situation and believe that he is a top notch, energetic executive.

Sins of the past managmements with respect to benefits, legacy costs have penalized this company greatly. Estimates are that $1700 in costs per vehicle for these costs. A new VEBA negotiated with Ron Gettelfinger of the UAW kicks in in 2010 with substantail savings.

Oil prices were driven to $145 a barrel earlier this year by futures traders - don't listen to the nonsense about supply and demand - which drove up gasoline and home heating costs and brke the successful sales model for SUVs and trucks which was consumer driven. GM historically was castigated for not giving the consumer what they wanted, instead giving the consunsumer what GM wanted. All of a sudden, the consumer didn't want those large vehicles.

Now that speculators are wiped out and deleveraging, oil prices are $45 per barrel. The stock market has crashed and customers can't afford any cars, large or small. Annual industry sales estimated at 10 million are crushing GM as well as the Japanese, Korean and German transplants. The whole industry is on the brink of failure if GM is pushed over the cliff.

Failed government policies and regulators including Cox, Paulson and Bernanke have destroyed the economy and the auto industry with it.

And your CNBC colleague and debating partner Mr. Kudlow and his ilk say let hem fold and go bankrupt. The answer is no, no no. Housing prices now down 16% nationally will go off another 16% or more. The consequences will be too ghastly to contemplate.

Re Citicorp, are they really in trouble? Why do you think they're in sufficient trouble that they have to be bailed out? I know it's the conventional wisdom, and people are looking for some action this weekend, but leading analysts such as Dick Bove of Ladenburg, Thalman and many others watch in amazement. They believe that Citi's balance sheet is as strong as JP Morgan's, and that Citi's capital is strong and adequate. However, many believe that because the stock has been driven down by unfettered short sellers in a bear attack that the short sellers are right, that might makes right. The government takes the position that rather than re-adopting the uptick rule and prosecuting naked shorting and attempting to prevent these hi-tech lynchings, to quote Mr. Justice Thomas, and to restoring the workings of the market , that the victim is the problem, and the short sellers must be rewarded. Citi is indeed in trouble because of what George Soros calls Reflexivity - it's collapsed stock price destroys confidence and makes capital raising, etc very difficult. But as with so many other companies, Citi didn't fail on its own, it has been murdered, and Cox, Paulson, Bernanke, and sadly, probably Geithner have been the problem rather than the solution.

user-pic

I agree about Citi and oil, but one problem re autos:

"The whole industry is on the brink of failure if GM is pushed over the cliff."

This just doesn't follow. For one thing, even if GM stopped making cars, that would relieve competitive pressure on other manufacturers not push the industry farther over a real cliff. Right now there is an oversupply of new vehicles, so some "weeding out" might be just right, if the supply-demand situation is not merely an anomaly.


user-pic

Delphi has been in bankruptcy for a few years and can't come out because the private equity group - I believe it was called Appaloosa - that was going to put up the money decided not to put up the funds. Companies like American Axle, Johnson Controls, Lear etc - you name it - will not be able to survive bankruptcy of the big one or two or three and they themselves will probably have to file. So I guess you'll have a much consolidated industry with no domestic suppliers, very reduced employment, dealers in bankruptcy, tire companies as well. The PBGC will certainly be out of money - taxpayers will have to pony it up, and unemployment insurance will be extended, and payroll taxes will have shrunk, etc.

user-pic

I don't see how that applies. If GM restructures, I think all its ordinary suppliers should be maintained, one way or another, but stock and bond holders (investors, generally) should be sent to the back of the line. Production lines keep running, vehicle warranties are underwritten to keep goodwill going. Maybe negotiate moving the UAW contract changes closer. Feds or others invest operating capital with strict conditions and performance targets.

user-pic

Actually I have read in other parts that the problem with the big three failing is that the suppliers to the US companies are also the suppliers to the foreign companies building cars here.

Unfortunately losing all the domestic car company business would put the foreign manufacturers in the US out of business too because they could no longer get the supplies they need from the common suppliers.

user-pic

Geithner has definitely been part of the problem and a whole generation of economists who gave seal of approval to a view of the market that would have had leveraging become infinite. As it is the de-leveraging underway might have continued without a panic if not for a prominent group that now has one of their own tapped for Secretary of the Treasury. So we have a thoroughly trashed financial sector, where valuation of assets and risk is almost a metaphysical enterprise and the loopy math that led us here is now going to be used in the new government.

Just ducky!

user-pic

"Nonetheless, Citi is about to be bailed out while GM is allowed to languish. That's because Wall Street's self-serving view of the unique role of financial institutions is mirrored in the two agencies that run the American economy -- the Treasury and the Fed."

Mr. Reich, I agree with you completely but then I think you're pointing out the obvious. That is, things and conditions that have become obvious over the last 15 plus years or even as far back as Ronald Reagan. What you're not pointing out is the other group that belongs with the Treasury and the Fed in the self-serving view of financial institutions as compared to millions of average working Americans - the Senate and specifically the Democrat party.

That's right. I didn't mention the Republican party, which needs no pointer to indicate its complete lack of concern for average working stiffs (unless they make totally bogus "JOe the Plumber" arguments about dream jumping to the unreachable heights of the upper class and then, and only then, not wanting to pay taxes). It's the Democrat party and the House of Lords that is the U.S. Senate.

I didn't need digby at Hullabaloo to point out that Harry Reid's argument - that he and the Senate Democrats can't put the auto industry rescue up for a vote because the votes aren't there and the rescue would fail - is a slap in the face to working Americans everywhere - including Alabama where non-union auto workers might get a temporary advantage from a big three collapse. Check that. The workers wouldn't get zip. The owners and the politicians they finance would benefit. The workers would likely see their jobs gone in a few years to foreign factories. But I'm getting off track.

Digby points out that Reid should be calling for repeat votes on the matter, making Republicans own the collapse of the American job market and production base that the auto industry represents. Reid and Democrats should be calling for vote after vote on the issue and if there is a filibuster screaming "UP OR DOWN VOTE!!" like the Republicans did when they were pushing an issue like extremist right wing judges for the federal court. Republicans even threatened to end the filibuster over that issue. But Reid doesn't want to allow a vote. Wouldn't want to make a scene. Not for average American working stiffs.

Upchuck Schumer "gulped" when the Wall Street collapse was announced by the Treasury and he, other senate Democrats and Barack Obama went scurrying around trying to find the best way to give the self same treasury and fed as free and unfettered as hand as possible to hand out hundreds of billions of dollars (with only fig leaf protections for the public) to Wall Street thieves - for their thievery. Schumer even has a history of fighting to keep Wall Street fat cats from paying the same high tax rate that average American workers pay. According to the Schumeresque logic the Wall Street people are somehow champions of structural support for America while average workers do little to drive the car that is "America."

This should be a golden political opportunity to point out how uncaring and class war conscious the Republicans are. Democrats should be forcing them to own the disaster that is the American economy they've created - or rather destroyed. ... with Reaganomics no less. Ronald Reagan did this to America. Amazingly instead, the Republicans are being allowed to tell the public it was FDR's fault.

The problem is that far too many of the Democrats are as unconcerned about average Americans as the Republicans are. They're trying to work out another set of fig leaves like those for the Wall Street bailout, that seem to suggest they're working for Americans, but couldn't overcome the difficulties, leaving the collapse of America's production base to something on the level of an act of God. Neat that. A trial from the ulmighty.

Reid, Schumer, Obama and the other senate Democrats don't want repeated votes because they don't want to be on record looking out for unions and workers. That might hurt their campaign cash flow. They don't have to worry about the unions and workers. Where are they going to go?

We don't have a representative democracy in America. The senate truly is a House of Lords. It isn't just the lame duck constitutional abomination that's glaringly unrepresentative. We have a one dollar one vote democracy and the Democrats, Upchuck Schumer a paradigm, feed off that system every bit as much as the Republicans.

Never mentioning class war isn't just a Republican axiom.

user-pic

I have often wished the Democrats in Congress would do something like what you want Reid to do (over Iraq, over judges, over most ANYTHING!), and I must say I don't understand fully why they didn't make a more public scene. But the Detroit issue isn't trivial, from what little I understand of it. Detroit should have come to Congress with 2 or even 3 well-thought out plans, just as Pelosi has finally said. Show us the plan before we show you the money. If you want me to give you money, What are you going to do for me? So far I mostly hear only extortion from Detroit and Paulson.

user-pic

Wall street keeps NY State out of the poorhouse. That's why Chuck Schumer, Gov. Patterson and the rest of us New Yorkers find the crash so unsettling.

user-pic

Both can't be allowed to fail.
The collapse of GM, as pointed out, would cause too much damage to the industrial system of this country. The failure of Citi would fuel the unreasoning panic that is causing the financial system to unspool.

user-pic

"failure of Citi would fuel the unreasoning panic"

Would it really? At this point?

How a company fails is as important as the fact of its failure, pretty much however you define 'failure'.

Maybe the short sellers piling on are in for a shock.

user-pic

So how many years into this mini-Depression do we have to be until someone figures out that we'll need to bust up all these "too big to fail" monopoly banks?

user-pic

Great question.

Unfortunately, the answer will probably be offered in retrospect; that they should have been broken up at some point BEFORE they require the inevitable bailout at some future date.

user-pic

I'm certainly not one to defend the business practices of either Citibank or GM (to name only two examples). However, there's a detail here I don't quite understand.

Mr. Reich says "Even if Citigroup were to go belly up, the real economy would not be seriously harmed. The funds overseen by Citi would be remain; fund managers would shift them to other banks."

Let's say someone has $1 billion on deposit at Citi. (Think pension fund, insurance company, college endowment, etc.) Isn't it true that Citi does not actually have that money in its hands? Instead, they have "spent" it on corporate bonds (perhaps GM bonds - GM currently has about $45 billion in debt, much in the form of bonds). Or even worse, Citi has "spent" the deposit on CDOs (basically a bundle of home mortgages).

This is not necessarily irresponsible behavior. It's basically how banks make their money - by investing their deposits into other financial instruments from which they hope to earn more interest than they pay depositors. GM bonds or mortgage CDOs, in hindsight, may have been been bad bets, but until the last year or two, that wasn't so obvious.

In any case, if Citi fails, it seems impossible for the deposit money to be "shifted" to another bank. All there is to shift is the GM bonds or mortgage CDOs. We may suspect other banks would be rather fearful of owning such things, unless they are getting them at an implied price of a few pennies on the face value dollar.

Isn't that the basic problem in this whole "crisis" - that financial institutions are holding huge amounts of "money" in the form of financial instruments reflecting loans made (in forms such as bonds or CDOs) that cannot be fully paid off? And that it is almost impossible to even estimate what percentage actually can be paid off?

Isn't it true that the Gov't is the only entity that can afford to assume ownership of these instruments, at an implied value of, say, 25% of face value, in the hopes that over a period of years, maybe 30% of that face value can actually be recovered?

If so, isn't it misleading to describe this process as a "bailout" of banks, companies, or whatever - when what is really at risk is the deposits of pension funds, university endowments, life insurance companies, etc.? One way or another, isn't everyone going to get hurt in this mess, and the only questions are who, and how can we minimize the overall pain?

user-pic

Erica:

I can't accurately answer your question, except to say that the loss of any or all of the Big 3 would affect an overwhelmingly greater - I mean like HUGELY GREATER - number of people than the loss of Citibank. This is an undeniable fact.

The reason why this is so is easy to understand:

1) The act of making money off of money - trading in assets like equities, currencies, and commodities - only benefits the entities who are directly involved in the trade - and their usually not very well paid staff. These entities don't do much of anything except reinvest the profits they make back into the same instruments. They don't create anything. They only facilitate the flow of money from one account to another in the end.

2) The act of making money off of manufacturing benefits an entire supply chain - from the raw resource extractors who mine iron ore, etc. to the manufacturers of the machines that the labor pool uses to build the finished products to the aftermarket manufacturers who make and sell furry foam dice for the rear view mirror, etc. We're talking about thousands of businesses that serve the supply chain for automobile manufacturing. The Big 3 supports many millions of workers and retirees who serve this industry, while usually making a profit for it's shareholders.

user-pic

We elect people to make sure this shit doesn't happen. They failed us. They failed us by becoming too friendly with those that caused this tsunami of shit. Both sides of the aisle failed us completely.

Will Obama change things? Will he push for a bottom up cure or a top down cure that goes through the people that caused this? Will the Democrats in Congress go along if he tries?

user-pic

RE: "Because the public doesn't understand the intricacies of finance, it's easily persuaded" to support a bailout of Wall Street firms.

No, the public was against the bailout.

Thousands upon thousands of us called and emailed Congress to vote against the bailout.

Only a tiny percentage of calls and emails to Congress on this subject were in favor of the bailout.

Maybe members of Congress are "easily persuaded" to give public money to Wall Street firms. The public isn't.

user-pic

C'mon, what people were rightly against was "Paulson's Pig", the first version. That's what raised the public hue and cry. It's not so clear about public sentiment since then. And the House rejected it.

I think what did pass was not optimal, but what did pass was rather different in several key ways. Of course if you think Paulson is a crook and not just incompetent, then no bailout could be good.


user-pic

From drift glass…by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce:
“Directly and indirectly, the economic breadth and contribution of the U.S. automotive industry is deep and far reaching across the country. U.S. automakers directly employ approximately 355,000 American workers and indirectly employ nearly 5 million additional jobs through related industries that are dependent on auto manufacturing, sales, and related activities. Over the last two decades, the automotive industry has invested nearly a quarter of a trillion dollars in the U.S. and is among this country’s top industries for R&D spending. Automakers also are among the largest purchasers of U.S.-manufactured steel, aluminum, iron, copper, plastics, rubber, electronics, and computer chips.”


Manufacturing directly employs 14 million America and supports 8 million more.

Each manufacturing job supports as many as four other jobs, providing a boost to local economies. For example, every 100 steel or every 100 auto jobs create between 400 and 500 new jobs in the rest of the economy. This contrasts with the retail sector, where every 100 jobs generate 94 new jobs elsewhere, and the personal and service sectors, where 100 jobs create 147 new jobs.


Well, there are a lot of good, compassionate reasons for picking those three, but if your goal is to save the Middle Class from extinction, then you…

Enact health care reform…to take the burden of wildly-overpriced employer-based health-care off the backs of American business, in order to make them more competitive in the global marketplace.

Enact education reform…because the days of a million high-school drop outs making a Middle Class living pounding anvils and running lathes is over; because the new good jobs (and the prosperity of the nation) depends entirely on a skilled and adaptable labor force.

Pour real money into a green energy portfolio…first, because tethering your manufacturing and distribution systems to a variable like oil which is controlled by hostile foreign powers is suicidal. Second, because somebody’s gonna have to actually man-u-fac-ture the solar cells, fuels cells, windmills and so forth.

To pull us back from the feudal abyss, all these pistons (and more) need to be firing harmoniously in a 21st industrial engine powered by manufacturing.
Yes, the Big Three automakers have been run by short-sighted dolts with ridiculous business models.

So has the financial sector.
So shut up and fix them already...."

Unions...the republicans want the end of unions and the big three auto makers represent the continuation of unions. Of all the companies being "bailed out" the big three auto makers should be at the top of the list as the impact of their failure would be economic collapse for a huge portion of America.

user-pic

Raise your had if you would buy a car from a company that was trying to reorganize itself under Chapter 11 bankruptcy.

user-pic

"trying to" could take a few months or less if done efficiently. Extended/external warranty guarantee could easily cover this at very little cost, esp. if HOW Chap. 11 was entered was orderly.

The company does not simply shut down, under Chap. 11, right?

user-pic

Please tell me ONE automobile that went into Chapter 11 All of the car companies that are no longer with us American Motors (which was dissolved by Mitt's Farther) Packard, Auborn, Duesenberg, and Crossly all were dissolved. I believe that no automobile can survive in Chapter 11. Volkswagen is owned in part By the government of Saxony in Germany. In Renault the French government still has a stake. All research in Japan on Battery tech. is conducted by the Japanese Govt. And the rest of the world auto Mfg. do not have to pay for health cost and if they go under we the taxpayer will pay for the health coverage either through developijng universal health ot increased cost of insurance because the people will be using the ER form of health care.

Barbian FL

user-pic

I don't understand your point in context. "past performance is no guarantee of future failure" in this case.

But if there are too many suppliers, maybe it's time to weed out one and strengthen the others.

I'm not in favor of tossing GM to the wolves, btw.

user-pic

With people as arrogant and self-involved as Paulson and the other masters of the (now imploding) universe, the question of "good faith" simply doesn't make sense. It's like asking whether Ted Bundy thought he had a good reason for killing his victims.

Seriously. I'm not sure that we've seen a bunch of people so thoroughly practiced at self-delusion since "What's good for GM is good for the United States" -- and probably not even then.

But I think that there's one thing Robert Reich may be wrong about: we know that the pool of savings represented by shares in Citigroup and the others are gone for good, but it's not at all clear that the money represented by shares in other companies and other assets the financial industry administers are safe. (That is to say, it's clear by law, but public confidence that these guys have done what the law requires of them and will continue to do so is at a tsunami-style ebb...)

user-pic

I have said it before and will say it until I am blue...liberal dems and their elites have a HUGE blindspot

On Market St. I noticed a new addition to the REPENT NOW signs...THE FED IS A FRAUD..another guy standing next with the Don't Tread on Me Flag

This is the worst economic disaster AND political dysfunction of our lives
d

We are in for a Giant Sh*t Sandwich..Left right and mushy middle


The anger out there is palpable and it is building
It is going to get scary bad and esp fearsome is Right Wing Populism, now that culture wars are on life support if not DOA, leaderless and demon deprived ...

They aren't even going for Stop the Japs, Buy American like they used to (though they're hot for "illegal" immigrants)


Another bailout..Citigroup first then GM..will unleash a torrent of anger and political instability


If the GOP was remotely close to having their head out of their butts, their ticket to ride back into power is right in front of their faces

Danger Will Robinson Danger


The next bailout had better be part of an omnibus recovery package..the Politics of Disintegration is here

user-pic

How was it that Michael Kinsley famously defined "gaffe"?

>You go into some of these small towns in Pennsylvania, and like a lot of small towns in the Midwest, the jobs have been gone now for 25 years and nothing's replaced them. And they fell through the Clinton Administration, and the Bush Administration, and each successive administration has said that somehow these communities are gonna regenerate and they have not. And it's not surprising then they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren't like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations."
user-pic

I don't think the outrage is going to come from those rust belt towns. This is deja vu for them. The outrage is going to come from the professional and corporate middle class in the suburbs, i.e., those not truly rich but those who had assumed they were comfortable and secure and now see it all slipping away in the stock and housing crash.

user-pic

Excellent point...makes for an even more toxic political stew...not good

user-pic

Mr. Reich, I think the current economic problems have their root in the wealth disparity that has grown since Reagan took office to gigantic proportions. I wish you would write an article linking the crisis to this disparity.

user-pic

Zeno_of_Citium: Absolutely. Also, R. Reich should include a HUGE chapter on the Consumer Credit industry that allowed people to "paper over" their suppressed wage growth and other disparities in order to appear middle class. If people weren't allowed to fool themselves for so long through easy credit, then perhaps the ultra-wealthy wouldn't have been allowed to become the mega-rich oligarchy we have today.

1980/Reaganism = End of America.

user-pic

Great point!

The reality is that middle class wages have stagnated or regressed while this economy grew.

In addition, the health care insurance benefit has diminished. The employer is less responsible for the cost of this benefit, yet this "savings" doesn't appear in the workers pay envelope.

Successful union-busting has created a situation wherein employers rarely offer a comprehensive pension plan anymore, and the savings in cost to the employer is not reflected in the workers' pay envelope.

Wages and benefits have thus slipped backwards. Yet, credit - and the housing bubble - lulled the middle class into thinking they were actually experiencing benefit of the expanding economy.

Reality bites! The anger is becoming palpable as the understanding grows among these people that they have "been had" by the Paulsons and the Greenspans et. al. of the ruling class.

user-pic

The past 8yrs the dems have given Bush and the Publicans nearly everything they demanded. Now, just before they leave power they are taking our treasury with them by giving it out to those who are making sure Obama will not have enough funds to implement his promised social programs...especially when there is now an increased need for those programs. The CEO and management staff of the organizations being bailed out are all millionaires. Many have gained excessively by causing their businesses to tank. Yet I hear no one calling for seizing the holdings of these people. The bailout is not taking back the resources taken by these people which caused the collapse. One person getting $18 million while is company asks for $345 million is why we need to enact laws that would seize their holdings.
Removing the tax cuts on the wealthy is another means of coming up with the "bailout" money. But so far all the tax payer is doing is protecting the wealth and holdings of a small group of individuals who are so selfish they would let our entire economy collapse rather than give back a single penny they've gained at our expense.

Ia could give a shit about the big three auto makers except for the jobs lost. Same with the financial sector except for the havoc it produces on retirees and pensions of the working class. This is class warfare now. Auto makers bailout protects jobs...financial industry bail out protects the wealthy 1st.

user-pic

The title of this article is "Why We're Rescuing Wall Street and Not the Auto Industry." In answering this question, this was very unhelpful and frankly uninformative.

user-pic

We should neither rescue Citibank nor GM. People need help; let's help them.
The economy, its priorities and its rules need to be re-defined.
We'd be better off if Mr. Reich would help us keep our eye on the ball rather than describing the side show.

user-pic

Mr. Reich,

If Citi goes, then another primary dealer bites the dust. The list of market makers in Treasuries is shrinking fast. Are there any contingency plans to abandon the Primary Dealer system, maybe expand TreasuryDirect.gov with an exchange where open market Treasuries/Agencies can be bought and sold. Seems like doing that would free the Fed and Treasury from the noose that a shrinking pool of counterparties is tightening around their necks.

Just wondering.

Emma

user-pic

"In any case, if Citi fails, it seems impossible for the deposit money to be "shifted" to another bank."

I think the point is that the money is indeed already gone, through C's bad risk management. Insured deposit money needs to come through the FDIC guarantee, so you could transfer those accounts to better management and put the failed management through the bankruptcy wringer. More or less the same argument made with regard to GM--they're bad managers so "just let Toyota do it instead."

I also saw some charts, way back in 2007 before the mini-panic in August, and C had way more mortgage related poop on its balance sheets than the other big banks. So, unless they dumped it before the market for poop dried up, then they are worse managers (or more criminal) amongst a co-hort of bad managers (or criminals).

Not sure it looks good for Obama's election-phase economic advising team, but with C probably justifiably at $3.77, that cat's already out of the bag. Didn't he know? Do we go on "credentials" without peeking behind the curtain--or does Obama just think it doesn't matter?

I've also read that GM has something like $3 trillion in credit default swaps associated with it, including speculative bets that it will fail. It's no secret that little hot shit traders have been pushing GM around since the 90s. It could well be that between CDS obligations and much of the mid-west economy, letting GM fail is much worse bet for the economy as a whole-- but some key groups stand to make a killing.

user-pic

Simple answer: Any company which is too big to fail should be nationalized.

To do otherwise is to privatize profit and socialize risk. When outfits like Citibank were profitable, their managers and shareholders made out like bandits. Now that they are going down the toilet, these same managers and shareholders want the taxpayer to take the hit.

When a small business, a mom and pop store, goes out of business, there is no call for a government bailout. People lose their life savings and people lose jobs. Why should being big be any different?

Let the companies go into Chapter 11. Wipe out shareholder equity. Replace management. Unsecured creditors lose their money. Then the government takes over the business without having to cash out the equity holders or pay off any prior unsecured debts. Government starts at square one, free of prior obligations.

There is no reason to believe that these businesses will be any worse off being managed by government bureaucrats, earning no more than a GS13. Certainly, the free market corporate bureaucrats have not proved themselves to be competent managers.

The firing of management and the wiping out of shareholder equity, together with nationalization will send a strong warning to future Yahoos seeking a government bailout.

user-pic

None of this comes as a surprise. I'm glad that someone like Reich is making the point though. All the flurry of activity the past month or so has been for one purpose only: to protect the wealth and continuing profits of the rich. The average American is a footnore at best (despite the fact that the average American will have to pay for it all). It is sickening to watch all of it going down under the banner of keeping our national economy afloat when, in fact, all of us who live out here in American know that our economy has been barely hanging on for years.

The "crisis" of late is only a result of the relatively minor discomfort the rich have suffered as a result of the plummeting prices of their stocks. Ya know what? I say: fuck em! Let those bastards feel a bit of the pain they have been causing the average American for nigh on 40 years now.

Let's stop focusing on finding ways to keep the wealthy fat, happy and comfortable and instead let's focus all our efforts stricly on those areas that will directly benefit the average American today and in the years to come. For decades now the mantra of the rich and powerful has been to tell the average people to just deal with the economicy adversity they have experienced (so the rich could gorge themselves even more) and they kept telling us that we would have to adjust to the realities of the new economic times and so forth.

Well, I pray that bullshit has come to an end and it's time for the wealthy to have to deal with it too. It just kills me how they squeal, not because they are suffering, but because they aren't able to feast on the profits made possible by the sweat and labor of others. To hell with em!

user-pic

The reason why is that Republicans think there is a union they can screw over before the government bails it out, and Democrats are not brave enough to take this issue on in the open.

"How can they ask the government to bail them out when they haven't completely screwed over their retirees first?" say the Republicans and outside of a few dinosaurs from Michigan and other such Rust Belt states, rare is the Democrat who will take this on. They're much happier talking about increasing gas mileage and building smaller cars, and this is a critical issue, but the jobs issue must be forcefully confronted as well.

user-pic

Keeping the car makers afloat for a few more years and saving all those jobs is certainly attractive from a humanitarian point of view -- the jobs, pensions, and health insurance payments should be saved. But we are in a time of crisis, which is the only time that the great ship of democracy can fundamentally change its course.

Imagine $25 to 250 billion paid to partially compensate the workers who will loose those jobs and benefits, and to the rest of us to buy electric and pluggable hybrid cars. That money would enter the economy in the form of purchases of goods and services. Companies that produce those cars and their components would need loans to ramp up production, but in ten years we could have everyone driving 100 mpg vehicles, and those loans would be paid off with interest. Given the technological progress that could be achieved in those ten years, and those that follow, we could probably fuel our economy on our diminishing domestic resources and still have plenty left over to be kept in reserve.

We are told that the next few years will be really difficult, so why not make our sacrifice pay off.

Our country would be safer and more independent. We wouldn't need to go to war to protect our "freedom." After all, what is freedom, really if it isn't independence?

user-pic

JohnBTipton, I'm baffled by your comment above. It seems to me that moving into a technological future involving 100 mpg cars will require a functioning economy. At least in the short run, those cars will cost more than those featuring older technology (the Volt starts at $40,000.00 or something in that range). I suspect if we let our economy go in depression more people will be buying 5 year cars and stuggling to keep them running rather buying new plug ins.

Also, how would adding 2-3 million to the unemployment rolls contribute to the goal of a green future? If we tell Ford, GM and Chrysler to liquidate, at least one estimate indicates that the cost of unemployment compensation, PBGC obligations etc. will far exceed any loans the Big 3 are asking for (some estimate $200 billion). That $250 billion you described as what would be needed to move into a green future may not be available in this scenario.

In seems that your vision would be met far more easily by lending the Big 3 enough to stay afloat while they build the hybrids and plug ins they already have in the pipeline.

user-pic

You seem to think that the Big Three would disappear from the face of the earth if they go bankrupt, and that all auto industry workers would be on the street. All that production capacity and all those people could be producing hybrids and electrics. Granted there would be a period of transition but it wouldn't have to be more than a year or two long.

Providing for the laid-off workers and retirees would be expensive but probably not as expensive as keeping the BT afloat and waiting for them to make a transition at their own pace on their (and the oil companies') terms. I also would recommend a sliding scale gas tax that would be quite high in densely populated areas and spend the money on cheap mass transit. That technology is already well-developed. Building railroad cars and busses is good business too. Ask the French and Germans.

The electrics on the market today are hand-built. Building them on modern assembly lines would bring their cost down to current gas car prices. The only real difference is the motor, electronics and batteries. Some electrics sell at six figures today, but they are comparable in finish and performance with high-performance and luxury gas-powered imports in the same price range or higher.

My main point is that providing citizens with money that is targeted to certain purchases would help jump start the economy and green technological development. New jobs would be created that would add more real value to our country than traditional auto manufacturing. Specifically, we would be closer to energy independence. Add single-payer health care and adopt pay scales comparable to Toyota's and we have an industry that could compete world-wide again. We need to sell overseas and we need to stop buying imported oil.

Saving the banks and saving GM would bring us back at best to where were two years ago. Investing in our country from the bottom (the consumer) up might be a better option. If the financial sector can get 700 to 1000 billion then so should the rest of us. Apparently much of the TARP money is destined to be wasted. The plan I outline, fanciful, perhaps, might be less wasteful and have better long-term effects.

user-pic

The bankruptcy of the auto industry would be a calamitous blow to the U.S. economy at a moment of peril. Opponents of a "bailout" argue that there is no evidence that giving Detroit more money now will resolve the problem. Watching the hearings in the Senate banking committee the other day, I was struck by the fact that both sides have valid points.

The auto industry needs drastic restructuring and downsizing, and some have advocated a Chapter 11 bankruptcy. But this raises issues of buyer confidence, and such a bankruptcy would be extremely dicey.

Instead, why not put the Big 3 into "conservatorship", as follows:
The Board of Directors of the Big 3 would be dissolved and replaced by an oversight board selected by the incoming administration and approved by Congress. It would include 1 representative from Labor, 1 from management, and a number of economists, financial types, and experts on the auto industry.

The conservatorship would last for a definite period of time, say 5 years, and its mission would be to restructure the companies so as to be viable enterprises. The oversight board would have all the powers of a judge in a Chapter 11 bankruptcy. It could alter wage, salary, and benefit contracts of labor, management, and dealerships. It could call for sale of assets (corporate jets, for example). It could require management salaries to conform to government GSA salary structures. It could suspend dividend payments, or defer interest payments on debt. It could order plants to be closed, or product lines to be discontinued.

In return the companies would be eligible for short term paper from the Federal Reserve to keep the companies running. All shareholders would maintain their holdings; the stocks and bonds would continue to trade on the open markets. As the companies' finances improved stock and bond prices would improve, so that they would continue to be viable investments.
At some point, the companies would again be able to raise capital in the markets.

Once the companies were back on a sustainable path (which I believe would happen), the conservatorship would end, a new board would be appointed, and the company would return to normal operations.

The "conservatorship" status has a number of advantages over a Chapter 11 proceeding. By getting the U.S. government involved, it would give suppliers, dealers, and prospective buyers confidence that the enterprise will continue, and that the Big 3 will be slimmed down to manageable proportions. Thus "continuity" will be preserved. Buyers will not have to worry about warranties.

While many of Detroit's problems are indeed of its own making, the fact is that we are trying to INCREASE manufacturing in this country and cut our imports. There will continue to be a need for automobiles in the country, for police departments, auto rentals, etc. This is no time to knock out our largest manufacturing sector; downsize it, make it more efficient, yes, but not wipe it out.

The Detroit auto-makers have made substantial progress; but the current credit crisis is their prime threat, and this is not of their making. I believe they can make it, but they need a hand, not a hand-out.

user-pic

The idea of a Board of Conservators - one from column a, one from B, one professor, one swindler etc - running an auto consortium and competing with Toyota, Nissan etc. is absolutely ludicrous. One might conclude that a giraffe is the product of the Board of Conservators of the horse.

user-pic

As I've often pointed out in the course of adding to Reich-ian threads, here, Robert ain't an economist and certainly, ain't an expert in banking and finance (I doubt he's ever authored a paper which could get published in a professional journal in any area of economics).

That said the difference in the government's (Treasury and Federal Reserve) response to problems in the banking and industrial parts of the economy is an important issue.

It isn't a question of whose ox is being gored or who's friends with whom. It's a matter of conventional wisdom -- that is, that there are certain financial institutions -- AIG, Citi, Goldman Sachs, etc. -- whose existence is integral to the functioning of the "banking" system. That due to the depth and breadth of their interparty relationships their failures would "crash" the money/banking/financial system.

The issue for us, especially those of us on the left watching Wall Street being favored over Main Street, is whether that conventional wisdom is correct.

Unfortunately, Robert Reich has nothing much to offer in the way of answering that question.

user-pic

I have to object to the notion that GM represents jobs and communities while Citigroup somehow doesn't. They both do and by a lot of measures, the Citigroup jobs pay better for less physical labor so... advantage Citi.

I'm against giving public money to either, though.

GM's CEO, like Chrysler's CEO, like Ford's CEO, flew to DC in a private jet. Just like Vikram Pandit might.

The truth is that execs at the Big Three have the same lives as Wall Street execs. They all make more money than most of us will ever dream of making. So the question "why Citi and not GM" is meaningless. Either way you transfer common wealth to the rich.

user-pic

There is a much darker purpose going on here. Republicans (the predominate species on Wall Street) believe that management has been obstructed at every turn by the unions, therefore they prefer the option of bankruptcy. In bankruptcy, the needless cost of unions and pensions and healthcare can be cast aside and the top heavy bureaucracy can return to its proper role of producing profits for management and investors. Dealerships throughout the country, in town after town can be replaced with Mega-Mart auto centers, for more efficient distribution.

The question is more correctly, do the automakers serve a function for the nation that CitiCorp does not? The loss of Citi, with numerous alternatives, provides no consequence other than to financial sector investors. The loss of the big three would have adverse consequences in national defense, and on a scale dwarfing Citi (three to five million jobs). Liquidating Citi might cost 25 billion. Liquidating the big three would cost 150B x 3, + 5 million x 60k$, roughly a trillion dollars and the execution of five million citizens in the resulting riots.

Republicans destroyed my country.

user-pic

The loss of Citi, with numerous alternatives, provides no consequence other than to financial sector investors.

Obama, Geithner, Summers, Volcker, Robert Rubin and too many others to list disagree with your claim. They all say it would seriously damage the banking system and the country's economy.

Do you know something they don't?

user-pic

You make a good point about information, Ellen. Do they know something we don't? Do we know something they don't?

One of the reasons Paulson will rush to save Citi is that they are his brethren. They ate at the same tables, flew in the same jets, vacationed in Aruba together. While the "working class" management of GM, Ford, and Chrysler may have hobnobed in the halls of Davros, the grease on their faces (metaphorically speaking) meant they would always be outsiders, noses pressed up against the glass.

The main reason Paulson will not save the big three is that the bankruptcy of any one of them is the bankruptcy of all three of them, thus the end of union contracts and the death of the UAW. Union busting is always a favorite Republican pastime, and this is their biggest one yet. What do they care if one third of all American jobs are destroyed?

Perhaps Ellen, we both shall be hauled before Congress and demanded to reveal what did we know and when did we know it. Lehman died, things are still OK. Citi can die too. But the loss of the big three would be of a different category and consequence, and more to the point you raised, we both know that.

user-pic

I agree with you.

The masses work for the big 3. The financial industry supports the ruling class and those who earn in the top 5% of income. They produce nothing but wealth for the wealthy. They can die without a whimper being heard.

The government can bankroll the auto industry and the economy will hum along without all those shyster insurers and ponzi scheme investment bankers.

user-pic

In calculating the effect of a bankruptcy of either my guess is that GM's would have a greater effect because it would trigger the failure of a number of its suppliers.

And of course a GM failure would also have a more strictly financial effect since it owes approx. $50Bn counting both Payables and Debt.

But as I've blogged repeatedly this comparison is simply beside the point if you listen to Samuel Brittan, Brad Delong, Paul Krugman and Martin Wolf whose uniform position is that the US Govt should be spending trillions- right now but is immobilized by a shortage of things on which to spend it at this very moment when the effect of spending would would be a multiple of doing it later.

"It is ridiculous to conserve ammunition until after the battle is lost."

Martin Wolf in today's FT.

user-pic

sign on, concur, agree, bravo.

user-pic

Mr Reich you wrote, “To be sure, savers need to believe that intermediaries are trustworthy; otherwise, savers will prefer the underside of their mattresses. That's why governments regulate intermediaries, insure deposits, and do whatever else needs to be done to make savers feel safe.”

The people didn’t bury it under their mattresses, they put it in Real Estate, and now the Government is allowing it to bury the people.

Small investors figured out years back, the fraud perpetrated by Large Corporations who took the shareholders money and gave themselves Golden parachutes, suckering the middle class to invest.
Invest for what? To give the CEO’S more money? Share holders had no transparency. LACK OF TRUST, YOU BETCHA

There is a jealousy between the classes. Stocks are taxed on the Capital gains unless their held for a period of time.

But Mortgages were given a privileges that the other instrument couldn’t.

Thousands of Dollars are exempt on a Primary Residence, upon sale. It also has the benefits of Tax deductibility.

Stocks on the other hand are taxed on every dollar.

So Wall Street is getting revenge. Convincing Congress to let housing go under.

When and as we see now occurring WHAT financial instrument is left for the people, who want a nest egg when they retire? It won’t be Real Estate will it?

Lo and behold, I’m sure the banks would be more than willing to give you something, all the while ripping the Savers off, having destroyed the competitive advantage of Real Estate.

user-pic

I don't know that I totally agree with your assessment but I do agree that Savers are getting ripped off.

user-pic

My wife has a relative, a big lawyer for an insurance Giant.
We've had an opportunity at family reunions to discuss this subject.
His friends, with money, 3 to 4 years ago, were getting out of the Stock market and going into Real Estate.
For the reason, with Real Estate you own Terra, land, a deed.
With Stocks you own a piece of paper. With Stocks you get phony bookkeeping, you get the Enron’s the World COM’s.

Not to long ago there was talk in Congress. I think when Reagan was in office. A lot of pressure was applied, to remove the Tax deductibility of Mortgages. The outcry by the American people, the majority of Americans wanted the Mortgage deduction kept in place. Lobbyist for the financial brokers didn’t like the TAX advantage for one group and not theirs. “Well the least you can do they cried was cut capital gains on income from stocks”
Auto loans and interest on credit cards fell victim.

It doesn’t mean that those who wanted to take the benefit away gave up.
Those like Stockbrokers or Financial institutions, who decided that to beat the competition, Mortgages vs. Stock Portfolios, Real Estate Agent Commissions vs. Financial Broker Commissions.
The Investment groups want you to invest with them, telling you how "In the long run Stocks outperform any other asset class"
The investment banks, realizing the flow of money away from them, decided to play.

Only they played to undermine the process, giving enough rope to hang the consumer of mortgages, and then having their hedge to back them up, THE TAXPAYER.

Then when the Mortgage market falls out of grace, well Gee Whiz folks,
Come back to Safety; buy one of our bank products, pay our brokers 2% a year and we’ll manage your money, stay away from that mean old mortgages.

The Present Administration is picking winners and losers. The taxpayer, is being forced, to bailout the Banks, stocks and bond market at the expense of the only alternative for the People, Home ownership was the alternative.
Now what do the people invest in, if they want a retirement? Buy Stocks and Bonds?

user-pic

This is what I have called the greatest heist in history. Corporate elite cut lower class wages by making them compete in global labor markets, then enticed them into one asset bubble after another, fleecing them along the way. Finally, these elites now take tax money with no intention about raising wages for the lower classes. I submit to you now, we are heading back into a time of slavery on a global scale. We are offered either global war or grinding poverty for the masses while a few "worthy" elite live on in quite comfort.

user-pic

Not only is it the greatest heist. I believe it represents the greatest indictment against mankind.
In one of my meditative moods, I think back to the forms of institutions of governance. Pharaohs, Hammurabi, the ruler who chiefly established the greatness of Babylon, the world's first metropolis, The Mosaic Law, The US Constitution.

All claiming their greatness, and a history of failure
What started as a hopeful experiment, WE THE PEOPLE, has failed?
Foretold centuries ago
“Man has dominated man to his injury.” (Ecclesiastes 8:9). The 20th century, with scientific and industrial achievements, including financial systems, saw the worst calamities ever.
(Jeremiah 10:23) It does not belong to man who is walking even to direct his step.

Jeremiah Wright became the issue because of the way he stated things.

Is it not righteous, to pray for an intermediary, with the power, to destroy the deeply entrenched moneychangers, those who have gamed the financial system and enslaved and fleeced the people?
Someone needs to put an end to this, the people can’t, because the people, have no reigns or control over it. Will the prayers of the people be heard and answered?
YES
(Daniel 2:44) 44 “And in the days of those kings the God of heaven will set up a kingdom that will never be brought to ruin…. It will crush and put an end to ALL these kingdoms,. . .
It will crush the power of Corrupt Government and it’s ability to enslave into grinding poverty.

user-pic

Citigroup was once the biggest U.S. bank. General Motors was once the biggest automaker in the world. Now, both are on the brink. Yet Citigroup is likely to be rescued within days. General Motors may not be rescued at all. Why the difference?

There was a time when what was good for GM was good for America too. There was a time Manufacturing was supreme. Now the paper is supreme, now Wall Street is good for the country because Wall Street had more money to dole out to the politicians.
Compare the political/election contributions by the auto industry to the finance Industry. Finance invested more and will reap more.

Auto manuf. turn around will take years.

user-pic

It's so heartening to hear venerable Republicans like James Baker tell us that the answer to our manufacturing problem is lower pensions and lower wages. Any second I expect to hear them tell us that Great Depression II is Putting Country First.

user-pic

Well, Bluebell, in this global economy it's important that our human resource be competitive. Don't you unnerstand?

China is making kids toys with the use of prison labor which is "paid" with bread and water. It therefore stands to reason that our workers at Mattel, etc., should be willing - for the common good of the domestic economy - to invite imprisonment and bread-and-water compensation for the privilege of employment. If they cannot see the wisdom in this, they surely have no right to complain if their job is taken from them and passed along to the lowest common denominator. Hey, that's laissez faire capitalism. Get over it, eh?

All is not lost, however. In their largesse, jackasses like Baker offer to those who lose their family supporting jobs in this manner a ticket for retraining into a different job. Perhaps a new career awaits as a hedge fund manager or corporate CEO. Failing that, one has to wonder just how much retraining is required to flip hamburgers or become a barrista. After all, there really can't be too many other opportunities for employment available that won't be outsourced offshore.

user-pic

I don't know much about economic theory, but my gut sense is that the Big 3 automakers are strategic industries for this country in several senses and we must not let them fail to the point of going out of business permanently. If I had to choose between another sector where we are pre-eminent, say computers, and the manufacturing sector, I would pick the manufacturing sector everytime.

Frozen capital, in the form of manufacturing facilities, is important to a continental-sized economy. IT can be off-shored and imported in with no energy expenditures. Manufacturing though has an immediate leverage. It costs less to transport the finished product and that is a lasting advantage, a dividend that is self-renewing.

Big things from cars to lumber to steel to recycled goods still have to be shipped in cargo/container seagoing vessels. Our technology is decades away from producing energy sources like solar or battery that will power those ships. They are going to be running on either nuclear or fossil fuels for some time. This adds a cost to the product when it reaches the port of deliverythat we have to rationally anticipate. We really need to look at maintaining our manufacturing capacity as a sane and forward thinking response to the inevitable fallout in the shipping industries from peak oil and the tariff that energy costs are going to apply to all shipments.

Right now our great global trading civilization is held together by cheap communication, cheap transportation, domestic markets capable of absorbing imports, and a stable medium of exchange.

This enjoyable state may not hold up.

user-pic

After reading “Supercapitalism” it occurs to me that people have way more power than they know. Obama proved this with the financing of his election by soliciting small donors over the Internet.

Yes, we've lost some political power but have gained economic power.

Keeping that in mind, the United Auto Workers union should encourage all their members to buy 100-150 shares of GM stock. At $3.00 per share this should be easily affordable for most members. This would do two things: 1. Drive up the stock price 2. Give workers a powerful voting block at GM's annual meetings.

We have to learn to beat them at their own game.
JD

user-pic

I like your idea. I think it is very good for the working class. You should write it up and send it to the UAW as well as to those fools that didn't have a plan when they went in front of Congress.

user-pic

Of course that should have occurred thirty years ago. I don't think that Jimmy Carter's malaise speech would go over any better today than it did then. Telling people that the next frontier is within us is going to be a hard sell as long as the people at the top have so many cool toys and freedom means accumulating power and stuff. Still, I've got my fingers crossed.

user-pic

Sorry. This is a reply to BlueBell's comment above re the revolt of the middle class.

user-pic

Simple thing we ought to do going forward: If you're "too big and important to fail" then you're too big and important to exist. (An idea stolen from Bernie Sanders who appears to be one of the few Washington DC types who remembers this thing called The Sherman Anti-Trust Act)

user-pic

Informative piece.

A question I've never heard answered was the identity of the investors in London and Dubai that engaged in the short-selling of Lehman cerca Sept. 19th that drove Lehman's price / ratings / investment / into a tailspin? I'm sure it was nothing personal, but isn't that the proverbial Mrs. O'Leary's cow?

Given: The financial markets were brittle with flammable material and dry undergrowth.

Government takes in huge swaths of the financial sector is the greatest income redistribution I've ever seen so concentrated in a relatively small number of institutions.

This adds credence to Prof. Dye's (Who's Running America) longstanding study of power in the US.

user-pic

3rd para should begin: "Government's taking of"

Not-Lehman-but-Goldman hearkens back to Thomas R. Dye's study of the revolving doors considering Paulson's career.

user-pic

Sorry Robert but I think the public understood exactly what was going on in the 700 billion dollar bailout for Wall Street that is why most people were against it.

They were against it because it had very little if any justification. It was just a handout of money with no corresponding concrete benefit just the hope that banks would start lending again. That is not enough to put 700 billion on the line with the compaines and people that got us into this mess.

On the other hand I think people understand that fundamentally a domestic auto industry has a great deal of benefit but they also understand that the auto industry has a lot of problems, some of which are their own fault and some are not. So I think the public would get behind a bailout of the US auto industry that has a promise of success.

How do you have success throwing money at banks who have made big mistakes but have nothing changed except a big bailout check from the government? There has been no change in leadership, no change in mission, no change in the regulatory framework for these banks. So were in the same position we were before but we are out billion upon billions of dollars that can't be used to stimulate the real economy right now. We have not even gotten voting shares for all of our trouble.

The bank bailout stinks to high heaven and the American people know it.

Leave a comment

Advertisement
Please disable your adblocker!
Ads are how we pay the bills!

Subscribe

The Coffee House
TPMCafe's regulars

House Brew
From Your Cafe Editor

Special Guests
Big names and big brains

Special Features
Pressing topics and trends

Table for One
An expert's week-long talk.

All Reader Posts
TPM readers discuss.

Recent Reader Posts

All Reader Posts »



Book Club Calendar


November 16-20

http://orbooks.com/files/going-rouge-small.jpg

Coming Soon



November 30-December 4



January 12-16



« Book Club ArchiveFull calendar »

Book Club Archive



Masthead

Editor-in-Chief
Josh Marshall

Site Editor
Lila Shapiro

Intern
Kyle Krahel-Frolander



Subscribe to TPMCafe's feed.
Subscribe to TPMCafe's reader blog feed.

Advertise Liberally
Share
Close Social Web Email

"To" Email Address

Your Name

Your Email Address