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The Rubber Hits the Road

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It will be left to the Obama administration to sort out whether, or in what way, the government might advance new billions to GM and Ford. As Tom Friedman writes this morning, past failings of management at these companies are well known: they failed to support healthcare reform in the early 1990s, and they are now choking on health management costs; much more important, they decided to profit from SUVs, that is, from truck bodies and cheap oil, and foul the atmosphere. The smug attitudes of GM executives in particular--so I thought during my days editing at the Harvard Business Review--gave you some idea of why the Reds shot Kulaks.

Nevertheless, a couple of million jobs are at stake, at least until other global auto makers can take over some of this plant capacity. Should new public money believe in, as Secretary Paulson put it this morning, the sustainability of American car companies? I can see the macroeconomic arguments in favor, and I don't need Michael Moore to imagine the misery of new shut-downs. But before we spend more on this management, we should see that their worst failure is actually recent, not in some fading past. I mean their failure to remain competitive on the most basic principles of design and manufacturing, using global, peer-to-peer information platforms; principles Volkswagen Group, Toyota, and Nissan-Renault, have exploited, and GM and Ford have half-exploited, even as profits mounted from SUVs and endogenous quality improved.

The key to making all manufacturing profitable these days is lowering transaction costs for any particular product development program. Look at Sony or Samsung or Apple or Honda. You want to have the capacity to experiment often, design for many niche customers, and hold on for the grand-slam. You don't want that much riding on each try: you want (if you'll pardon another sports metaphor) to transform your manufacturing processes from football into basketball, that is, create the capacity to go the basket many times a game, not work your way to the end-zone only a few times a game.

This means fully exploiting peer-to-peer information and components sharing. You want to enable design and production managers in each brand unit to source components from every other brand unit (something like the way "open source" software designers source and integrate chunks of code). You want to decentralize vehicle design, to enable new vehicle introductions in shortened cycles (to be competitive, these days, you have to be under 36 months), and profit from production runs of, say, 50,000 vehicles rather than 200,000 vehicles, which is the American standard.

Skoda, which I know particularly well, thrives today because Bohemian designers have learned to exploit access to all of VW Group components. They create cars especially for niche markets; their latest, the Roomster, breaks-even on about 60,000 units, using components from the whole of VW Group. And Skoda is over 20% of VW Group profits today. (No, their competitiveness is not just cheap labor, which is more expensive than Korea's.)

Would Ford be dying if Ford designers, world-wide, had had access to Volvo and Mazda engineering and components years ago? (The flip: would Chrysler be dead if Daimler allowed it access to Mercedes components?) When designers use information technology to integrate components from federated sources, they have the capacity to introduce new vehicles more quickly, and make money on individual vehicles from comparatively few units sold. This has been true for consumer electronics for many years.

One key to making shrewd public policy, in other words, is understanding how products and services are actually assembled. Innovation--the driver of growth--is usually a matter of integrating in unique ways bits and snips of components, information, code, data, etc., from federated sources, much like a car (or a blog post, for that matter). The financial instruments that imploded were, after all, chunks of information--in the case of mortgage-backed assets, misinformation--derived and syndicated from federated lending institutions, integrated and bundled in novel ways, and distributed instantaneously over electronic networks--what Bill Gates called (too sunnily, obviously) "frictionless markets."

There are obvious dangers here, but there is no going back: what we have here is a template for assembling pretty much every high-tech product or every high-tech manufacturing process that produces a low-tech product. The same template works for delivering professional services. Peer-to-peer networks are crucial; nobody is as smart as everybody.

Too often, talk of "stimulus" is lazy, outdated, or vague. The government cannot save GM and Ford by giving them money and waiting for (or even mandating) advanced hybrids. Products don't succeed this way; the Chevy Volt will need to be a part of a family, its components quickly wrapped into a new Saab, or some new California sports-car wrapped around an I-Phone. And each of these models will face stiff competition from current global competitors.

Government--more precisely, governments--will have to see these things, especially if they are going to help auto makers. There is a need for a tariff regime that would allow components to come from wherever they are designed and, or, competitively produced (the EU was crucial for Skoda getting components from Seat in Spain or Audi in Germany). There is a need to make R&D programs in crucial areas (batteries, fuel cells, etc.) more transparent and less burdened by potential IP battles, so that university labs and free-lance inventors can participate--programs no single company can afford any longer. There is a need to jumpstart a grid and social network for electric cars, as Israel is doing (or at least pretending to do).

Most important, there is a need to stimulate innovation by entrepreneurial companies in the supplier base: by making patent protection harder to come by (therefore, less of an obstacle to start-ups), creating new ways for companies to share intellectual property (like IP exchanges), or creating incubators and tax breaks for new businesses.

So. Can US companies use government funds to create things customers will actually want? If so, are there things all manufacturing companies need in common, like roads and bridges? If not, should rescue be forthcoming, or should Toyota (which is not exactly a Japanese company anymore) be allowed to take over GM's capacity in the hope it will reinvigorate its plants and suppliers? This would not be unprecedented, after all: during the generation before the year 2000, it took about 15 years for a third of the Fortune 500 to be selected out, that is, fail or be acquired; since 2000, it took about 4 years.

The most compelling challenge remains the competitiveness of ordinary businesses--especially what we call, justifiably, knowledge-based entrepreneurial businesses. Perhaps 60,000 new businesses a year started up in the US during the 1960s; during the past decade, the annual number was closer to a million. We have to understand how and why barriers to entering businesses have fallen, how and why investors find new businesses (much more quickly than before), how companies survive using information platforms to design and market new things. Financial capital is not the only capital that flows or is regulated and managed. So is intellectual capital--and this is the more important kind.

Correspondingly, engineering innovation is not only driven from the center, but from myriad peripheries: from product development teams in companies, and the entrepreneurial start-ups they tap into. And there is a role for government in managing up a national "network effect"--improving the quality and scale of knowledge sharing on the platform. Facilitating even marginal improvements in the exchange of knowledge will have an enormous impact on how we live. It will give a whole new meaning to the term "roads and bridges."


27 Comments

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in the great scheme of things, i'm always hearing the flush of pensions and other unfortunate losses to the employees who suffer most and have least opportunity to drive this business. when can that be part of the deal?

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Typically in the US, serious managerial and technical innovation requires a new generation of people. Sometimes od fat cats can learn new tricks, but I'm not sure that's the way to bet.

Another problem with shoveling money at Ford and GM is that the world really doesn't need as many cars as it currently has the capacity to produce -- not even customer-centric, agilely-produced ones. So if you're looking to keep manufacturing jobs rather than just make shareholders whole for a long list of management screwups, putting the money in the hands of what are specifically car companies might not be the best idea.

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It would useful to suppose for a minute that auto top management and indeed most US management is not incompetent-its members rose to their positions via a darwinian struggle in which the incompetents long ago were left behind.

Can we think of other reasons why those companies and many others are failing?

o Overpaid american workers?According to Jeff Madrick (11/24 Nation)"roughly half the OECD countries pay higher or equivalent wages....and almost all provide more benefits".

o Quality of management? Well I assumed that away above but FWIW in 40 years of business experience, almost half abroad I never detected any marked difference in that.

O The influence of the US financial markets-put another way investor demands of US corporations- for example the single minded focus on uninterrupted growth in quarterly EPS? Maybe.

My feeling, probably not widely shared here ,is
that we DON'T KNOW why American firms are failing and even more dangerous, we think we do as evident in the complete assurance with which
analysts and economists assure us that they do .

And if we don't know what's broke it's highly unlikely-say impossible - we'll fix it.

What I'm sure won't fix it is for the Govt. to condition its investment on exercise of control over operations: compensation, new product planning,.etc.What evidence do we have that a life time in government prepares bureaucrats to do those things better than a life time in industry?

As a short term fix my heretical suggestion is that ,for starters ,Congress immunize Big Auto from anti trust regulations. Let the Big 3 cooperate to whatever extent they want. That along with some financial assistance may buy them some time to become competitive. It would certainly give the markets more confidence.

No doubt this will violate international undertakens on our part. Ones that perhaps we never should have entered into.

As Keynes said in 29 "The thing about tariffs is:they do the trick". Not that I am necessarily endorsing tariffs. The analogy is that our rooted belief in the Milton Friedman has been found unwarrented in the financial space.Maybe it's just as counter productive in industry.

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"we DON'T KNOW why American firms are failing "

We know why some are struggling: Recession does that. High gas prices do that to auto sellers and users, and thus to auto makers. Competition does that. Debt service can do that, is debt service a significant issue for Detroit?

Is this really harder than basic rocket science?

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Part of it is global overcapacity. It's not just the US firms that are doing badly. We in the US are just reaching the same point that manufacturers of Ladas and the like have been at for years. Even in the best case, if we keep Detroit alive, it's going to have to shrink.

Beyond that, isn't the biggest problem that the Big 3 have the fact that they don't make the kind of cars people want anymore? They rode the SUV gravy train as long as it lasted and now are stuck with all that capacity to build those monsters. The silver lining here is that government injection of capital could actually help them get past this problem. Some of Detroit's smaller cars are actually quite good and should be competitive.

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Bernard perhaps you were trying to be funny when you wrote "gave you some idea of why the Reds shot Kulaks". But it is not. Kulaks were no more than the more prosperous Ukrainian peasant farmers that earned the envy of their neighbors and the Reds exploited that envy to confiscate their property and to execute a few hundred thousand of them.

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I'm not sure the quip was such a stretch. The people who rose in management at GM were also just decent people, not terribly forward looking people, who played by the rules, and got their little piece of a traditional dream: men in grey flannel suits, in their own way rather like Tolstoyan Levins growing their wheat. The problem was, once they got theirs, they became very conservative defenders of the status quo, and like the Kulaks, were prepared to see others suffer, even starve, so long as the conditions of their privilege would be preserved. You get some sense of this reading Isaac Deutscher's biographies of Trotsky and Stalin, or listening to monologues of (the miserable) Gletkin in "Darkness at Noon." Anyway, let's not shoot old GM managers; Michael Moore's skewering (and the fate of GM stock) is punishment enough.

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You defend an unconscionable comment with absurdity: Now you're telling us it was the Kulaks who allowed the Ukranians to starve? The Ukranians starved when the Soviets confiscated all their food. What an ugly distortion of a tragedy!

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You are extremely insensitive. What happened in the Ukraine was genocide, not of a race or religion but of a socio-economic group. If someone wrote "gave you some idea of why the Nazis gassed the ..." no I won't go there.

Also the famine you mention was largely the result of the elimination of the most successful farmers and their replacement with party hacks and ignorant peasants.

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OK, you win. I (much less Deutscher and Koestler) defend the collectivizations, which saw the best farmers murdered; perhaps we should not joke about what's happening to white farmers in Zimbabwe, either. But, again, the joke was about the difficulty people caught up in a conservative social form, one that works for them, to see the need for revolutionary changes.

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For Kulaks and the rest of the Ukranians, it was probably somewhat difficult to "see the need for revolutionary changes", since the change agent was an incompetent, corrupt apparatus soon to annihilate them. And if these revolutionary changes were so necessary, whatever become of them?

"Kulak" is a pejorative in your world, bub - not mine.

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Flavius makes a mistake that is very important when he talks about how US auto-company managers reached the top in a darwinian struggle that guarantees their fitness.

Insofar as he's right, he's right about fitness, as perceived by the previous generation of top managers, to continue the operation of the companies in the same way it was done in the past. But being able to make it to the top of a huge corporate labyrinth is no more a guarantee of ability to lead that corporation to longterm success in a vastly different world than being able to get elected is a guarantee of ability to be a competent holder of elective office.

And the one terrible deficit that afflicts the managers at GM and Ford is that they believe they are running big, important, automobile companies that are more likely than not to be in existence tomorrow.

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I'm not sure if flavius is talking about auto workers in the US versus OECD? Does this include the cost of healthcare and the cost of pension?

Let's face it, the Big 3 can't compete in terms of the basic product. How many times have you heard someone say "I am going to buy a Honda because I can drive it for 200,000 miles and it will keep on going." No one has had that type of passion about an American car since the Ford Taurus in the 1980's

Obama giving GM a blank check is a huge mistake. Bailing out GM would be like letting a drug addict continue on his big binges.

Someone without any political axe needs to be put in charge of GM with a clean slate in mind. That means the board and management are replaced. The shareholders get nothing and a lot of the bondholders take a bath too. But what's the alternative?

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I was quoting Jeff Madrick and about OECD pay. But I'll guess that what is true about manufacturing wages in general for the US vs OECD is sufficiently true about comparative auto wages so that whatever differential exists is not decisive.

The comparison definitely does not include health benefits per se since those benefits are provided abroad by the state to a greater extent than here.
Of course some of that cost will be indirectly borne by foreign corporations through taxes.But certainly less of it would be borne by, say ,BMW than by GM.

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Perhaps Obama can bring back the Oldsmobile.
Yes we can!

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Reduce my interest rate on my mortgage allowing more at the end of the month, and I'll have the money to buy a car.

Until then GOOD BYE DETROIT.

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As long as Southern states are willing to throw hundreds of millions of dollars at foreign automakers, the overcapacity problem continues and the Big 3 are road kill. Uncoordinated state competition for investment is destroying the domestic auto industry. It's a problem generally, but it's a crisis for automakers and auto workers.

Automakers probably shouldn't be bailed out directly, but they should be freed from their health insurance burden as part of the rapid creation of universal health insurance. And that probably means single payer; "pay or play" won't help the automakers.

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Excellent post, Bernard. Although Sylvanen is right that the "kulaks" got a raw deal.
Go ahead and shoot the automotive CEOs, however.
The economic model you propose is very nettish, niche-ish and global village-ish.
Right up Obama's alley.
As a skilled amateur, he'd also buy into the basketball-vs.-football analogy; two three-pointers are as good as a touchdown.
Anyway, whether the government fosters it or not, this is where the economy is headed.
Hard times put creative people out of work, and that spurs incredible innovation.
Millions will suffer, but a new economy will emerge. Hopefully in our lifetimes.

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It’s been real easy for the media, analysts and pundits to paint the picture that GM, Ford and Chrysler are anachronisms and not worthy the effort or inclination of being saved. The conventional wisdom, if you listen to them is it may be best to let them fail and cast our lot with more desirable automakers.

Now, as a GM employee, I’m sure this posting will be met with the proverbial smirks and snide comments. After all, who’s going to believe someone who works for a company that is seemingly on the brink of oblivion?

Fair enough, but spare me the slings and arrows for a moment in order to digest some facts about what we are really facing.

The truth is the economy, as we know it, is tanking. As much as people want to dismiss the domestic automakers, one cannot look past the great impact our companies have on the economy.

This is not about GM, Ford or Chrysler. It’s really about Main Street America. A report issued last week by Ann Arbor, Mich.,-based Center for Automotive Research said the collapse of the domestic industry will lead to the loss of 3 million jobs and income of $150 billion.

The ripple effect is great and many people seem to forget an automotive company is not an isolated business, as suppliers and other supporting businesses and services will be adversely impacted. Those hoping for the transplant to step in and save the day don’t realize that the crushing blow on the supply chain will impact their production, as well.

OK, you might say, the impact will be devastating, but aren’t the domestics just plodding along, using antiquated manufacturing techniques to make undesirable vehicles?

Well, let’s see. The domestics have done an excellent job closing the gap with the transplants in productivity, quality and reliability. And while, it is only fair to tip our hats off to our rivals for the strides they continue to make, it should be equally fair to give the domestic’s their due.

Walk into a GM factory anywhere in the world and you will see leaner, more efficient operations where employees are challenging management each day to develop and implement ideas that will continue to improve quality and reduce costs. In fact, in my job, I see countless “best practices” being shared and deployed around the globe.

I make no presumption that GM is the best. I assert, though, that the culture in GM manufacturing is one where continuous improvement is paramount.

And I’m sure my colleagues at Ford and Chrysler feel the same, as well. Collectively, our companies are pumping $10 billion into our U.S. plants and equipment each year. This is money that is well spent to bring exciting new products to markets. Products that are more refined, of higher quality and greater fuel efficiency.

In my view the domestic industry is not an anachronism. Despite the crisis at hand, the domestic industry is relevant and worthy of saving.

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Personally, we decided over a decade ago to never buy another car from the Big Three. We finally sold our 1986 Toyota Corolla. It is still going strong, and will probably give some student good cheap transportation. We simply wanted a car with more conveniences (we are both approaching 70). We now have a new Corolla.

During the time we owned the '86, we went through three American cars - one by GM and two by Ford. All three broke down prematurely. One went through three tranmissions. That was enough of GM and Ford.

We did have some trouble with the Corolla. We once had to replace the windshield fluid motor, and once had to replace the radiator.

Oh yes, the fabric on the driver's seat split.

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Avi:

Ford is already doing what you ask. Their most popular sedan, the Focus, is based on Mazda architecture.

Let me ask all 'liberal' car czars - and instant experts like Tom Friedman:

Why does Detroit go in for heavy criticism about building expensive guzzlers, when BMW and Mercedes just fly under the radar?

When Tom Friedman starts laying into Mercedes for building expensive luxury cars instead of 'plug in hybrids' (which cost $40K to build - and who wants a $40k economy car? anyone?) then I'll start listening.

The fact is, Mercedes builds the "Smart" - that car you see in Europe and recently imported to the US (it looks like a phone booth with wheels).

Mercedes has NEVER made a penny on that car.

So you can't build small cheap cars, and then expect to make a bundle on them.

"Liberals" are caught in time warp. The whole "GM has feet of clay and doesn't make cheap, efficient cars 'people' (who?) want"

God that story was moribund 20 years ago.

So tell me why Toyota makes MOSTLY SUVS. Look at their website - they're makin' money on the big SUVs too.

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How about you tell us why GM and not Toyota is first in line asking for a handout now?

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Legacy costs?

$35/hr. wages versus $17.50/hr.?

No benefit from Southern states' beggar-thy-neighbor tax give aways?

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Just to be clear. I am not talking about using other "platforms," the way the Skoda's Octavia used the VW Jetta back in the 90s. I am talking about wholly new cars, put together by empowered, creative designers, attacking new (once peripheral) markets, and making money on relatively few units sold, like the Skoda Roomster.

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I am having an exceedingly hard time with all the bailout goings on where there is little or no oversight and so much is being done behind closed doors and in secret.

Corporate America and Wall Street have created this mess along with certain individuals in our government who's loyalties are suspect.

When you examine GM and Toyota for instance, there is the all too evident difference where one recognized the need for fuel efficient products while the other ignored the handwriting on the wall.

There is just no way that taxpayers can be asked to pony up trillions of dollars for Wall Street, banking, the automotive industry and whatever other industry makes the right noises except that there be some very rigid guarantees of payback and with the entire plan having total transparency. I do not accept the notion where the liabilities and missteps of corporate America attribute to the majority working class taxpayers. This is particularly true where there is an unmistakable adversarial relationship between the two to begin with.

Our government is putting taxpayers on the hook for a sum that will take mid-century to pay off and have a huge impact on the livelihood of three generations of Americans.

None of this is happening right now and if you think this is going to end positively for taxpayers I got news for you. There is afoot a rip off of immense proportion as bad or worse than Bush having lied about Iraq that has cost thousands of American lives and that will end just as badly. There has to be a check for the actions of our government and there has to be accountability. Screwups of the immensity we have witnessed just cannot go unanswered and unaccounted for.

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Anyone who thinks that GM doesn't offer good cars doesn't know what they're talking about. The Chevy Malibu finished 2nd in a Motor Trend comparison test that included the Honda Accord and Toyota Camry. If you think the auto enthusiast magazine writers are pro-American made, you're sadly mistaken. Throw in the German (Opel) designed cars that Saturn has on their lot, and you've got lots of competitive products. The biggest problem GM and Ford face is that their capacity for producing smaller vehicles stateside is slim, and importing them from their European plants is costly because of the bad currency exchange. They should have been prepared for this inevitable change, but they weren't, primarily because of the need to placate shareholders.
GM and Ford need to move as quickly as possible to imitate what they've done in Europe.

On a related note, I sold my '94 Saturn to a friend's teenage daughter, and that car is still going strong, with 220,000 miles on it. Where I live, road salt has sent all the '94 Hondas and Toyotas to the junkyard.
It's too bad that Saturn was plastered with the 'geeky' characterization, when all they were trying to do was sell people a good, reliable, durable appliance.

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Am I completely off base in thinking that the majority of GM / Ford / etc's workforce does NOT reside in the United States?

Because I have it in my head that moving the jobs back here ought to be the core non-negotiable point of any contract of "bailout" to the auto makers.

It seems to me that unless they employ mostly Americans (and NAFTA be damned!) they should get nothing from our government, because even if their corporate tax streams come through this country it's more important the the jobs come from here. Living where consumer activity is the primary drivewheel of an economy is the very epitome of living in a Fool's Paradise...

(pls excuse unintentional ignorance, and they are many, feel free to correct as needed thx :)


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