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The Mini Depression and the Maximum-Strength Remedy

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This is not the Great Depression of the 1930s, but nor is it turning out to be merely a bad recession of the kind we've experienced periodically over the last half century. Call it a Mini Depression. The employment report last Friday shows job losses accelerating, along with the number of Americans working part time who'd rather be and need to be working full time. Retail sales have fallen off a cliff. Stock prices continue to drop. General Motors is on the brink of bankruptcy. The rate of home foreclosures is mounting.

When Barack Obama takes office in January, he will inherit a mess. What to do? (Because I'm an informal economic adviser, I should warn anyone who reads this that it reflects only my thoughts and therefore should not be attributed to him or to anyone else advising him.)

First, understand that the main problem right now is not the supply of credit. Yes, Wall Street is paralyzed at the moment because the bursting of the housing and other asset bubbles means that lenders are fearful that creditors won't repay loans. But even if credit were flowing, those loans wouldn't save jobs. Businesses want to borrow now only to remain solvent and keep their creditors at bay. If they fail to do so, and creditors push them into reorganization under bankruptcy, they'll cut their payrolls, to be sure. But they're already cutting their payrolls. It's far from clear they'd cut more jobs under bankruptcy reorganization than they're already cutting under pressure to avoid bankruptcy and remain solvent.

This means bailing out Wall Street or the auto industry or the insurance industry or the housing industry may at most help satisfy creditors for a time and put off the day of reckoning, but industry bailouts won't reverse the downward cycle of job losses.

The real problem is on the demand side of the economy.

Consumers won't or can't borrow because they're at the end of their ropes. Their incomes are dropping (one of the most sobering statistics in Friday's jobs report was the continued erosion of real median earnings), they're deeply in debt, and they're afraid of losing their jobs.

Introductory economic courses explain that aggregate demand is made up of four things, expressed as C+I+G+exports. C is consumers. Consumers are cutting back on everything other than necessities. Because their spending accounts for 70 percent of the nation's economic activity and is the flywheel for the rest of the economy, the precipitous drop in consumer spending is causing the rest of the economy to shut down.

I is investment. Absent consumer spending, businesses are not going to invest.

Exports won't help much because the of the rest of the world is sliding into deep recession, too. (And as foreigners -- as well as Americans -- put their savings in dollars for safe keeping, the value of the dollar will likely continue to rise relative to other currencies. That, in turn, makes everything we might sell to the rest of the world more expensive.)

That leaves G, which, of course, is government. Government is the spender of last resort. Government spending lifted America out of the Great Depression. It may be the only instrument we have for lifting America out of the Mini Depression. Even Fed Chair Ben Bernanke is now calling for a sizable government stimulus. He knows that monetary policy won't work if there's inadequate demand.

So the crucial questions become (1) how much will the government have to spend to get the economy back on track? and (2) what sort of spending will have the biggest impact on jobs and incomes?

The answer to the first question is "a lot." Given the magnitude of the mess and the amount of underutilized capacity in the economy-- people who are or will soon be unemployed, those who are underemployed, factories shuttered, offices empty, trucks and containers idled -- government may have to spend $600 or $700 billion next year to reverse the downward cycle we're in.

The answer to the second question is mostly "infrastructure" -- repairing roads and bridges, levees and ports; investing in light rail, electrical grids, new sources of energy, more energy conservation. Even conservative economists like Harvard's Martin Feldstein are calling for government to stimulate the economy through infrastructure spending. Infrastructure projects like these pack a double-whammy: they create lots of jobs, and they make the economy work better in the future. (Important qualification: To do this correctly and avoid pork, the federal government will need to have a capital budget that lists infrastructure projects in order of priority of public need.)

Government should also spend on health care and child care. These expenditures are also double whammies: they, too, create lots of jobs, and they fulfill vital public needs.

Expect two sorts of arguments against this. The first will come from fiscal hawks who claim that the government is already spending way too much. Even without a new stimulus package, next year's budget deficit could run over a trillion dollars, given the amounts to be spent bailing out Wall Street and perhaps the auto industry, and providing extended unemployment insurance and other measures to help those in direct need. The hawks will argue that the nation can't afford giant deficits, especially when baby boomers are only a few years away from retiring and claiming Social Security and Medicare.

They're wrong. Government spending that puts people back to work and invests in the future productivity of the nation is exactly what the economy needs right now. Deficit numbers themselves have no significance. The pertinent issue is how much underutilized capacity exists in the economy. When there's lots of idle capacity, deficit spending is entirely appropriate, as John Maynard Keynes taught us. Moving the economy to fuller capacity will of itself shrink future deficits.

The second argument will come from conservative supply-siders who will call for income-tax cuts rather than spending increases. They'll claim that individuals with more money in their pockets will get the economy moving again more readily than can government. They're wrong, for three reasons. First, income-tax cuts go mainly to upper-income people who tend to save rather than spend. Most Americans pay more in payroll taxes than in income taxes. Second, even if a rebate could be fashioned, people tend to use those extra dollars to pay off their debts rather than buy new goods and services, as we witnessed a few months ago when the government sent out rebate checks. Third, even when individuals purchase goods and services, those purchases tend not to generate as many American jobs as government spending on the same total scale because much of what consumers buy comes from abroad.

Fiscal hawks and conservative supply siders notwithstanding, a major stimulus is in order. Government is the spender of last resort, and the nation is coming close to its last resort.


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This is EXACTLY what I've been trying to tell people out here at UC Irvine. (I'm a PhD graduate student in Economics, decided to pursue my PhD after completing my MBA).

When I heard on NPR one of the local Republicans saying that "you should stimulate the economy by cutting spending and cutting taxes" I yelled at the radio "you just failed Econ 101!!!"

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THEY AREN'T LISTENING DESPITE THE SCREAMING.

Firstthingwedo (I'm a PhD graduate student in Economics, decided to pursue my PhD after completing my MBA).

Then why is the first thing we do, is not the best thing we do.

I think the first thing to do is stabilize the cause of the meltdown, The housing crisis

Robert Reich wrote –“ Businesses want to borrow now only to remain solvent and keep their creditors at bay. If they fail to do so, and creditors push them into reorganization under bankruptcy.
Answer: Business will recover when consumers have money to spend.
Consumers will cut their Non essential spending, to be sure, IT IS CLEAR they’ll walk away from their homes, not being able to avoid bankruptcy.

Robert Reich wrote, “The real problem is on the demand side of the economy.”
Answer: Consumers won't or can't borrow because they're at the end of their ropes. Their incomes are dropping
If the stimulus package does not work and the economy keeps tanking, people will still need to make the mortgage payment

Introductory economic courses explain Supply and Demand
Why are the homeowners left out in the cold, they have seen their equity drop, they can’t borrow, they have no disposable income.

Even if the Government stimulates the economy with infrastructure investment, are incomes going to rise?

Unless, the unemployed should hurry up and purchase a big GM van conversion so they can live out of the back seat.

THE GOVERNMENT WILL PROBABLY FINANCE LOWER THE INTEREST RATES ON AUTO PRODUCTS
In order to keep the automakers solvent and help sales.

THE GOVERNMENT WILL NOT HELP FINANCE, LOWER INTEREST RATES, TO HELP HOMEOWNERS.
Lowering interest rates for Business but not for homeowners.

If the stimulus package does not work and the economy keeps tanking, people will still need to make the mortgage payment

How do you make homes affordable? Lower the interest rates

The only way to stabilize housing is to reduce supply and increase
demand (Econ 101).

Decrease Supply - Allow homeowners to refinance into an i/o loan at 5%
REGARDLESS of loan to value.
Increase Demand - 5% interest only for purchases (reduce the "new"
Fan/Fred fees). Problem solved.

Robert Reich wrote, “people who are or will soon be unemployed”
EXACTLY, address the crisis of homelessness, before it occurs.

If homeowners can rewrite the loans to an interest only at 4.75% for 7-10 years makes more sense, than bailing out the banks.
Consumers will have the confidence of spending again and not fearing losing their homes because they can’t make the house payment, and being put out on the street looking for government assistance.
With the extra money the homeowners will again purchase products, they’ll be able to pay off the credit cards.

GREEDY SELF INTEREST BANKERS, WHO MADE THE MESS.
Or is this why this proposal will never see the light, because the banks don’t want you, to pay off the credit cards? Having slaves, a cash cow, consumers owing them forever.

Consumers - disposable income = NO GROWTH
With no growth, where are we going that we will need a bridge, unless that’s where we’ll be living with others, when we lose our homes, or a road so the mailman can deliver the assistance check.

Help homeowners FIRST, and then together we’ll make the economy grow.

OTHERWISE, I truly believe we the people are going to get thrown under the bus. Then we’ll conclude the plan didn’t work, we need another trillion dollars.
Let’s print some more stimulus checks,driving inflation up, further harming the middle class and the retired.

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"Even if the Government stimulates the economy with infrastructure investment, are incomes going to rise?"

- Yes, that is the point of a government stimulus.

You want to help homeowners? I'm not against reasonable steps to do so. I'm not sure your proposal is a reasonable way to go about it. We know that a large tax credit for new home purchases helps rebuild the housing sector - it's one thing the government did the last few times we had a housing bubble burst that helped.

IMO, homeowners are not the top priority here. If they could afford their home six months ago, they should still be able to afford it now, assuming they have the same job and pay. Being underwater is not the end of the world.

People being out of work, however - that's something that we should address right away.

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What makes you think income will rise in a downturn when they didn’t rise in the good times?

Exports will then be more expensive.

Unless higher unemployment, scares the crap out of those who have a job, and the scared workers refrain from asking for a raise.

What a windfall for the business industry, worker productivity will be up and so will profits.
At least the 401K'swill rebound

Homeowners are usually family heads, what they could afford 1 or 2 years ago is no longer the case.
Adjustable rate mortgages, rising, without incomes rising is what helped create this mess. When the banks no longer considered refinancing these ARMS the house made of cards or worthless paper, crashed to the ground.

Think of the industry that is supported by homeowners; manufacturing, appliances, carpeting,lumber, tile, plumbing, electrical, the service industry, home improvement centers, just to name a few.

I don’t want to rebuild the housing sector at this time, I want to move the supply of inventory we have first.

Lowering the cost of the money, to purchase these assets, will stimulate purchases, purchasing will reduce supply.

Over supply is what is causing the blight in neighborhoods with empty homes with broken windows and inhabited by the drug addicted nightcrawlers, trashing and stealing the plumbing and wiring.

Reduce the supply.

So why not stimulate homeownership, aren’t they as important as the auto industry and the employment it creates. Evidently not.

You wrote “assuming they have the same job and pay. Being underwater is not the end of the world.
The employment numbers are getting bleak, and there will be ripple effects.

As for being underwater, I don’t know about you, but staying under to long is not good for your health and well-being. It will sure take your mind off of your troubles though.

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I'm not sure you're seeing the point here.

For economic policy, the question isn't whether we get back to where we were, it is what is the difference in outcomes given multiple possible actions. So, when you say:

What makes you think income will rise in a downturn when they didn’t rise in the good times?

The answer isn't what will make income rise, it is which will lead to greater incomes - increasing government spending, offering low-cost loans to homeowners, or neither. Most economists would probably say increasing government spending will lead to greater total income. Also, when economists measure "income", we're usually talking about the sum of all the income of everyone employed within the economy, not whether or not Joe the Plumber got a raise.

Mortgage interest rates are NOT very high at all. ARMs based on the current interest rates are not killing the economy. Inflation is not and has not been out of control. I have little sympathy for any homeowner whose financial situation has not changed (still employed at the same level and for the same wages) and can't make their housing payments. If they have too much of their money going to housing payments now, they had too much six months ago. Move somewhere you can afford.

You want to "move the inventory we have"? Fine. Give a tax credit for new purchases.

But there is nothing threatening about owing more on your mortgage than the house is worth. If that's your only problem, you can continue to pay your mortgage until you own the house outright. Doing so won't kill you no matter how long you wait.

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What one earns (i.e. ones income) is a function of ones bargaining power, and the size of the pot that they are bargaining over.

The problem in the current mess is a result of the a collapse in bargaining power by the masses as a result of the decline of collective bargaining, especially by unions.

This society is based upon one principle: free market. Therefor bargaining power is everything. Wealthy republicans know this, all too well. Everything that goes on around us is all about people or groups of people trying to enhance their bargaining power, weather its advertising on T.V., personal grooming, or Hannity carrying political water for billionares.

They've done other things to whittle away at bargaining power: turned a blind eye to illegal immigration, flooded technnology markets with Hb1 visas, etc...

This has to be reversed.

There are other ways to do this. The Japanese have both the most competitive international firms, and the broadest distribution of wealth. They do this through widespread tenure.

Tenure forces employers to put employees on the front burner. Because they can't fire people, they have to do long range planning. As it turns out employees interest are a better proxy for shareholders than the American arrangement.

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Being underwater isn't the end of the world, but being underwater in a neighborhood that's failing is pretty bad. I've posted a longer response to your idea down-thread. Tx, erica

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By the way, I saw you recently on the Daily Show - nice job - and I was also very pleased to see you were on Barack Obama's team of economic advisers.

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What seems like common sense is no doubt going to be portrayed as risky theorizing by the current administration and those who support them. Fortunately for us, most people are no longer supporting the current administration. Let us hope that common sense works....

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Great article, Mr. Reich. Sometimes I feel like I'm psychic (or crazy) because I've been saying all this for months. Defecit spending is the key to getting us out of this crisis, despite however much we all want a balanced budget. But, alas, sometimes you have to spend money to make money. Reich correctly points out that the money we pay out now will vastly improve things for future generations- so hopefully they'll be able to "rake it in" even more efficiently and thus, the defecits we are paying forward will not sink future generations.

I agree infrastructure and healthcare should be top priorities, I'm hoping some (or alot of) "green energy" projects will fall under the infrastructure umbrella as well. However, with people such as Mr. Reich advising Obama, and with Obama's thorough and analytical nature, I'm confident this will get done right.

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Sometimes I feel like I'm psychic (or crazy) because I've been saying all this for months.

For some, it's been many years...

Many commentators, particularly including the (formerly) conservative Kevin Phillips, have been advocating a return Real Economy values rather than the recent financial economy values, for many years, in some cases decades. I associate the rise of financialists with this whole (hopefully now discredited) "supply side" argument.

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The so-called credit crisis is an unavoidable result of Fractional Reserve Banking running it's course.

The Fractional Reserve banking system requires an un-ending supply of creditors going farther and farther into debt at the bottom of the pyramid.

Eventually, those creditors reach the end of their ability to go into more and more debt. And the system collapses.

So the Gubmint pushed us into $700B more debt. But that will support the ever growing pyramid only so far and then the collapse will be just much harder.

Let's face it, America. Our credit cards are maxed out.

We need REAL MONEY and HONEST BANKING. Until that day, every day that goes by will cause that fiat dollar in your pocket to shrink a little bit more until it takes a wheelbarrow full of cash to buy a penny candy at the general store.

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206 years ago Thomas Jefferson issued some sage advice that was largely ignored. The advice seems relevant today.

I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around [the banks] will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered. The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs.
Thomas Jefferson, Letter to the Secretary of the Treasury Albert Gallatin (1802)
3rd president of US (1743 - 1826)


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I agree with the answer to the first argument, but the answer to the second argument is far simpler: "W".

Enough said.

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Thank you, Dr. Reich. Please, please scream if you must, but whatever it takes, get Obama's ear.

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Technology infrastructure should rank right up there with classic roads and such.

Broadband to rural areas and getting low cost computers out to low income areas will keep the focus on future productivity and creation of wealth.

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Well said, Mr. Reich! I couldn't agree more...

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Thank you for this.

Would you consider adding one item to your list of ways Government should spend? I advocate a direct, simple bailout of underwater homeowners. It would be an effective use of bailout funds, because consumers aren't going to increase their spending until they feel more confident about the value and stability of their homes and neighborhoods.

The method would be to look first at neighborhoods hit hardest by the foreclosure crisis. Find the people who are still in their houses. Offer to share the cost of their mortgage payment by however much housing values have dropped in the neighborhood, if owners will commit to making the remaining part of the payment plus a principal payment each month.

The program would have the effect of a massive principal reduction without all the fuss.

For example, if housing values have dropped 40% in a given neighborhood, offer to pay 40% of the homeowner's payment if they will pay the remainder, plus, say, a $100 principal payment each month. It's simple for the homeowner, involves no fees, and will provide immediate incentive for people to stay in their houses instead of walking away. This will cut the number of houses on the market and immediately help stabilize housing prices.

More importantly, this move would bolster homeowners' confidence in their ability to stay in and hang onto their homes, which most ordinary Americans view as their sole source of stability and wealth. (You just can't overstate the value of that.)

The housing industry doesn't need a bailout as much as housing consumers do--they are the ones most affected by the products they bought. In all of the discussion of bailing out the industry, I haven't heard anyone pay much attention to the consumers themselves, what they need and what would work for them. I think a direct, simple bailout would work well.

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Oh--and you could get it implemented immediately before the current pres. leaves office.

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Hey there,

I'm sorry, but I think this is a terrible idea.

First of all, a lot of people who would benefit from this proposal are perfectly capable of paying their mortgage payments without help.

Second, anyone who didn't put themselves in a position to get this kind of help is immediately labelled a "sucker".

Third, the main beneficiary of this program would be the banks who made bad loans, since they're the ones on the hook to take a loss if the homeowner walks away.

Fourth, the "value" of your house has nothing to do with your ability to make your mortgage payments, all it affects is your ability to get a new home equity loan.

Fifth, there's absolutely no timeline associated with this proposal. Would you recalibrate how much the government pays every month, as prices may rise or fall rapidly? That doesn't do much for home budgeting, does it? When would the program end?

We had a housing bubble. It is not practical to try to prop up home values to the level that they were at when the bubble was at its height. With the drop in housing prices, owners who are underwater should be looking to move into a new place that is cheaper, and getting out of their bad loans. If you want to help them do this, AND help the responsible people who didn't jump into the market with no-money-down loans, then provide a major tax credit for home purchases. This will increase demand and indirectly help the homeowners who don't sell, since housing prices should end up higher than they otherwise would be.

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I will try to respond to all your comments—thank you for making them.

Firstthingwedo: You don’t have to be sorry about thinking direct help for underwater homeowners is a terrible idea. I often think it’s a terrible idea myself, but then I try to think of what might quickly get money to where it is needed and come back around to this plan, which might be characterized as “The best terrible idea we’ve got.”

Yes, some people who would benefit are capable of paying their mortgages without help. But in the hardest-hit neighborhoods, I’ll bet there aren’t many people with bubble mortgages who are just hanging out livin’ the dream. Among other things, they face empty houses on their blocks and the increased danger and crime that go along with them. (It’s hard to gauge the effect of wondering if the empty, copperless house down the street might explode this winter if a homeless person sneaks in and lights up a cig.) Those who are capable of paying their mortgages could refuse the benefit (which would be taxable) or they could simply consider it an incentive to stay rather than walk. In this sense, the program would help folks who may have made poor decisions and benefit those who made good decisions. (In addition, maybe there could be some way of weeding out the obvious outliers—don’t offer the plan to the easy streeters, come up with a different plan for those in such a bad way that they don’t even meet the standards for this one.)

I’m not sure what your “sucker” comment means. If you mean that those who don’t qualify for the program would be suckers because they end up paying for it, well, I think most people will eventually understand that fixing the problem in the worst-hit neighborhoods now will keep it from spreading up the line to other neighborhoods.

To the issue of the banks being the beneficiaries, I’ve done a ton of research on this question and I don’t think there’s much way around it. Most banks are absolutely refusing to negotiate in a meaningful way with their customers, despite polite requests from the Fed Chair that they do so. In many cases, and this will be increasingly true moving forward, the defaulting loans are insured by some large semi-government agency like FNMA. This means that a bank or servicer can foreclose on a property, collect the ENTIRE amount of principal and interest from FNMA, and hand FNMA a house that’s worth a fraction of the amount FNMA just handed over to them. So, zero incentive on their part to do principal write-downs. I even called FNMA and asked if, now that the taxpayers effectively own FNMA, whether FNMA would consider "un-guaranteeing" some loans to force banks to negotiate. They seemed horrified by the idea, stammering that they are only the investor and wouldn’t dare try to tell the banks what to do. It would have been a funny conversation if it hadn’t been so frustrating.

You are correct that home value has little to do with your ability to make mortgage payments. But it has a lot to do with your motivation to make them, and with your general sense that things are going well or badly for you and your family. (Most homeowners aren’t economists—the emotional impact of owing a lot of money on a “worthless” house is a big deal and has a not-negligible effect on the economic picture.)

I left the timeline out to keep things brief. My idea is that the plan should end when what the homeowner owes on the mortgage matches up with the value of the property. For example, say you have a 200k mortgage on a property that wouldn’t sell today for more than 80k. You qualify for the program, and as the situation stabilizes, your amount owes goes down as prices recalibrate. The program ends in a few years when both numbers are, say, $135k. And yes, you could also recalibrate the amount the govt pays every month, but you’d only measure it every six months or so.

I agree that we shouldn’t try to prop up housing values, but I think we should prop up homeowners and neighborhoods, because the social costs of the rootlessness and decay will be huge if we don’t. This isn’t about housing values, it’s about helping people whose housing values are wrecking their finances and neighborhoods.

While you are correct that owners who are underwater should be looking into new cheaper places, the practical reality is that they can’t. In most of the neighborhoods I’m talking about, there’s nowhere else to go. You’re already in the worst neighborhood in town, and your post-foreclosure credit will make it hard to qualify for appropriate rental housing, let alone qualify for another mortgage.

For this reason, I think your (very reasonable) proposal for a major tax credit for home purchases won’t have the hoped-for effect. Nobody qualifies, because banks aren’t lending.

Like I say, I think a direct bailout for beleaguered homeowners in hard-hit neighborhoods is the best terrible idea we’ve got.

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I think the problem is that housing prices aren't low enough. The lower the prices, the more people will want to move from renting to buying. Providing a tax credit has two direct effects: it effectively lowers the price on every house by the amount of the credit, and it makes new loans less risky (since the amount of the credit can effectively directly increase the affordable down payment) - this directly makes banks more willing to loan money to new homebuyers.

I acknowledge you have good points about the specific neighborhoods where there are a lot of empty houses, and about banks being uninterested in refinancing at a loss, and about the psychology of owning a negative-equity home.

A lot of people seem to think that if they have negative equity (and no other issues), they are in danger of losing the house. This is not true and maybe we need to make this clear.

I think we'd be better served with a mini-bankruptcy law that said: "If you walk away from your house this year, it can't be considered against you when you buy a new house this year, and it will come off your credit reports completely within 3 years." Combine that with a tax credit, and let people rearrange themselves into new housing nationwide.

People shouldn't stay in houses they can't afford. They should be encouraged and helped to move into different housing that they can afford. Current renters should be given at least as much consideration and help in becoming new homeowners as current homeowners receive.

Of course, a lot of people lost a lot of money in the stock market - we don't

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Sorry, got cut off there, ignore the last bit. I was going to say something about "if we socialize the losses of homeowners, shouldn't we do the same for stock owners?"

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That money "LOST" in the stock market wasn't lost. It just went into someone else's pocket.

If you bought the Dow index when Clinton was inaugurated (3241.96), and sold at it's lowest point recently (say around 8200) you still more than doubled your money.

That money didn't evaporate. It went into your pocket. And that's more than 8% a year ROI. Closer to 10% ??

I think my third grade arithmetic is right. Economists, on here, what say?

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To firstthingwedo who wrote
Fourth, the "value" of your house has nothing to do with your ability to make your mortgage payments; all it affects is your ability to get a new home equity loan.

You are not seeing the larger picture,

First off, I am currently paying on three mortgages, so that’s not the issue, I don’t need home equity loans.
Because of the uncertainty of the market, I will not be purchasing a new one, even though I could.
I’ll not be buying a new car even though I could.
Why should I take the risk, my mortgages are all paid on time, my credit scores are very high.

I’ll not suffer because I don’t purchase products to encourage GROWTH, my money will remain secure, to assure that I do cover my expenses.

American workers will suffer because I’ll protect my investments, having a reserve that will not be used, for anything other than preservation of my RE investments.

Because of that, factories will shut down, manufacturing will shut down, because people like me won’t be the suckers, spending foolishly, stimulating the economy.

Until I can sell my properties, freeing up my cash reserves, I’ll not upgrade to a newer home or auto.

So as the government, tries to bail out the auto industry, I can assure you, until the housing crisis is solved, I don’t care how low the interest rates go on autos, I’m not interested.

It is those of us with the resources that should be encouraged, to spend. But why should I.

I only offer the solution to help those less fortunate.

A win/win situation, but of course the banks won’t like lowering rates on homes or credit cards, that’s how they make their money.

Cut the bloodsuckers out of the loop.
Finance homes through A WAR BOND TYPE INSTRUMENT, LET INDIVIDUALS, DECIDE WHICH PROGRAM THEY’LL SUPPORT.

You want this pain to end in a year or 5 or 10, I can wait. But I’d rather get the economy moving faster and getting the money in the hands of the people, and not the BIG contractors that will be getting the bids for the new highway infrastructure stimulus.

I sure hope we don’t get an epidemic in America, like the Bird Flu virus or contagion, because of the damn it, you caught it not me, attitude, or at least until it affects everybody then we’ll hear the clamoring for a solution and hope it’s containable.

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Or let homeowners refinance that percent of their mortgages with super-low-interest loans from Uncle Sam, which I think is a variation on your suggestion. It the long run, the value of the houses will rebound and Uncle Sam could always get its money back via withholding, so the loans would be risk-free.

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Imho, home prices have become so massively but artificially inflated by the credit default swap/mortgage crisis that expecting them to come back in the long run (at least, any meaningful long run) may well prove to be wishful thinking.

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Turnaround--yes, it will be a problem if home prices don't rebound at all. But I think they will even out.

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This is a good idea, with the caveat that you need to figure out a way to make homeowners believe it will work. (Plus it's more paperwork, which I'm sort of against because we'll end up paying the nasty banks to do the refinancing.)

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Wouldn't this kind of bailout only serve to keep housing prices artificially inflated? There was a housing bubble. That means housing prices are inflated way beyond where they should and need to fall. There are plenty of potential buyers, but the market will not come back until prices fall to a level that makes homes affordable to these new buyers.

Yes, we should work to keep people in their homes. But isn't there some way of doing this that does not keep mortgage values at their bubble inflated levels? Isn't there some way of providing assistance to homeowners by encouraging the home finance industry to provide renegotiated mortgages at lower values, so the current homeowners can make the payments? Yes, the industry will have to write down the losses. But they are already holding onto a bunch of bad loans and are facing the costs of foreclosures and illiquid assets.

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Prices have fallen, it’s the cost of the money that makes them unaffordable.

I posted above, a solution, if I had seen your post I would have addressed it here.

Interest only 4.75%, for 5 to 7 years, then revisit.

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Resistance, I like the low-interest idea--but I would add a principal payment rather than make the refinance interest-only. Paying down principal helps people believe that they are making progress and makes them feel more committed to the property. (This does not necessarily make economic sense but housing is an iconic thing for most people at least as much as an economic deal.)

I also have some difficulty with all these refinances because you just know the banks will come up with some way to make it as costly to the taxpayers as possible! But if refinancing all the bad loans at super-low rates would stabilize the system, I'd do it.

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Dan K, I have thought long and hard about the point you make. In response, I think it makes sense to separate the goals of supporting underwater homeowners (necessary) from the goal of supporting housing bubble values (tied to the homeowners but not the point.)

You ask:
"Yes, we should work to keep people in their homes. But isn't there some way of doing this that does not keep mortgage values at their bubble inflated levels? Isn't there some way of providing assistance to homeowners by encouraging the home finance industry to provide renegotiated mortgages at lower values, so the current homeowners can make the payments? Yes, the industry will have to write down the losses. But they are already holding onto a bunch of bad loans and are facing the costs of foreclosures and illiquid assets."

Unfortunately, the short answer to your question is “no.” Those mortgages exist, their values are what they are, and I’m pretty sure that getting the housing industry to look at things another way is a lost cause. (I suspect that the reason lies in the loan guarantees—much is made of the cost of foreclosure but in many cases foreclosing is actually a pretty good deal for the bank—see my reply to Firstthingwedo above.) Believe me, I’ve thought about this, and I’ve come to the conclusion that leaving many bad loans in place is the best way.

The good news is that mortgage amounts won’t, moving forward, have much impact on housing values, which are determined by the actual selling prices, not what’s owed on the mortgages. So propping up some ugly mortgages for the sake of the neighborhood isn’t going to have much impact on what houses eventually sell for.

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I posted before, Example an overvalued home at $200,000.00 at 8% interest only, per year, ($16000.00) divided by 12 months = $1333.33 dollars per month payment

Same $200,000.00 house @ 4.75 interest only, is yearly $9500.00 divide by 12 months = $791.66 per month
$1333.33 – $791.66 = $541.67 Available per month.

A frugal person with that amount of money could pay down a credit card in probably 2 years.

After which the frugal person, could with the extra money, pay towards the principle of the house. Eventually adding to an equity position on the home.

Best scenario, the supply of homes having stabilized, available for sale, because buyers can afford 4.74 % interest rates, and this without reducing the value of the house.

Affordability based not solely on the cost of the construction of the house, but what is the cost of the money.

There’re some, who think the land is free, the concrete, the drywall, the roof. In the Phoenix market $100.00 per square foot is what it costs to build; yet why do some think homes are overpriced and think existing homes should go for what $25.00 or $50.00 per foot? You can’t build for that, yet some think houses should go lower.
Houses are low enough; it’s the cost of the money that’s killing the market.

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Resistance makes an interesting point. Right now, it's often cheaper to buy a house at today's low prices than it is to build.

Not good for builders, and not a situation that can be waved away.

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Mr. Reich,

I could not agree with you more but I would also add that we should stimulate investment in startups and early stage companies as this is the sector where lots of job growth and innovation takes place. Most of the discussions have revolved around some form of tax incentives to these corporations but since startups and many early stage companies are not profitable, these incentives do not work. We should consider offering seed (angel) investors and venture capital funds special investor tax incentives to stimulate this arena. One example might be to allow investors in startups and pre-profit early stage companies to write off their investments (subject to a certain portion of the investment is applied to W-2 wages) in the year they make these investments with the IRS retaining the ability to recapture the deduction down the line if the exit is profitable. Another thought might be to create time-sensitive credits to these investors if they invest in specific areas of the economy (e.g., alternative energy startups). For example, one might offer a deduction of the venture investment along with a credit that is at its highest in the first six months of President Obama's term.

Finally, I would urge a plan that could be called "The Surge for America" that would combine private investment, infrastructure investment, tax incentives for investors, volunteers, worker retraining, etc. -- and target a specific area of the country (e.g., Western Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan) with a specific agenda -- to create a Silicon Valley for renewable energy, for example. A focused "surge" will help us understand how we can move an entire region from one industry to another -- and, an integrated, targeted approach can then be scaled to larger regions, more industries, etc. In addition, an integrated approach around the renewable energy sector will attack many problems at once -- infrastructure, jobs, dependency on oil, the deficit, creating a new industry that the US can lead in, and global warming -- many bangs for the buck!

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One way to stimulate small/startup companies would be to provide universal health care/insurance. Lack of health care for their family prevents many people from going out to try new entrepreneurial ideas. It's a small point next to the magnitude of what you are talking about, but important.

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Medical bills are also responsible for about half of all personal bankruptcies... the wave of credit card defaults would be reduced by having national health insurance.

Not to mention the cost of labor will go down dramatically as I argued in my post last night. GM, Ford, and Chrysler executives are definitely for national health insurance -- at least in Canada, where it reduces their labor costs.

Price Waterhouse Coopers recently estimated the waste in our health care system is $1.2 trillion per year. That's 8 percent of the whole economy!

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Count me in... Several of us in central Ohio are starting a technology business as I write this! One of us is well-funded by an employed wife but several are not so well off.

We are hoping for a return to a real production economy rather than a "capital moving" economy: Production actually makes stuff, while capital movement (at best) optimizes and selects who does the producing. Lately the capital movers have been encouraging competition from abroad, and it's hard to compete with people who I believe are forced by their governments to live on 1/10 of the cost of basic necessities here.

We don't want direct infusion of cash as much as the ability to compete for business on a level playing field.

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I definitely agree. Though I am worried about one thing -- are these jobs building light rail system and fixing roads any good? Working on a road crew is basically backbreaking work for not a lot of pay. It's not the kind of job most people want. You have a lot of people facing job losses who are trained for the information side of the economy. How will government spending create good jobs in those sectors?

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I think the short answer is that while road projects mostly involve construction jobs, and some planning, and not much else, transit projects create all sorts of jobs.

Sure, there are the planners and engineers and public relations people involved in the buildup, then construction jobs, but also plenty of IT people to expand the transit authority's computer systems, HR people to oversee the hiring, managers to oversee the new employees, bus drivers, train engineers, and so on.

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People will take what they can get here pretty soon, I think. I'm one them, graduated cum laude 5 years ago and still don't have a stable job, yet grew up on a farm and isn't afraid of hard labor. I think other incentives can be added on if the pay isn't quite up to snuff, tax breaks at the end of the year for working on public works or some such. Information jobs will increase as the rest of the economy does- fueled by people put back to work and spending their money again. Until then, pick up a shovel. We're all in this together.

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And get rid of the massive influx of H1-B and L-1 visas. Put Americans to work instead of importing low-wage workers.

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Also keep in mind that when the government spends money on something like this, not only do you have the direct impact of those specific jobs, but those people spend their pay, supporting everyone they buy anything from, and those people spend their profits, and so on...

While I've not seen anything definitive, in general it seems that the less well-off you are the higher a percentage of your income you are likely to spend, so there's often a greater expected stimulus impact when employing (or simply making transfer payments to) lower-income people than you get with tax breaks for the wealthy.

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They could put them to work modernizing the archiac government information systems.

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It isn't pick-and-shovel contruction work, in many places; it's mostly backhoe and forklift now, and women can do a lot of it too.

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Your analysis couldn't be more true.

After more than two decades of real income losses for working class Americans it has to have registered with economists on both sides of the argument that the top several percent of the income scale can't possibly buy enough stuff to stimulate the economy. Whatever the plan, it has to put disposable dollars in the pockets of a majority of Americans. Overall it'll require people working and some form of government stimulus focused at the largest number of people possible.

Frankly, I am tired of hearing cut taxes, cut taxes. Cutting taxes is an absolutely counterintuitive argument and has nothing at all to do with economic stimulation or job creation. I am quite sure that cutting taxes actually takes dollars out of circulation.

And besides, one of the reasons (certainly not the only one) we have such a huge deficit is from having cut taxes. Cutting taxes is not only a boneheaded argument but we have never cut taxes when we faced a big dollar outlay to support a war effort. Every bit of Bush monetary policy is in conflict with what has ever been done in the past under similar circumstances. There can be little doubt that administration monetary policy is central to the current economic mess. The Bush administration has been consistently wrong in most of its endeavors and this is no exception.

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What about the other argument against infrastructure spending, that it doesn't get money into the economy fast enough to give the immediate stimulus needed? Listening to NPR's Marketplace the other day, they heard only from economists who voiced this concern.

It seems pretty silly, since there's any number of pent-up infrastructure projects that we can pay for if we approve funds for them. Many of them have already been evaluated, but just haven't been deemed worthy of the limited infrastructure funding made available under this administration.

It seems to me that if the administration targeted $1 billion to each of the largest 50 metropolitan areas, plus another $1 billion to each state, for transit, they would find the best ways to spend that money. We'd create lots of jobs, PLUS we'd be preparing for the inevitable rise in energy costs, since we'd have light rail, subway, commuter rail and bus expansions well in advance. Where's the downside?

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For those who are not already aware of a (hopefully rare) situation of real instability in the current marketplace, here is a link to a New York Times article reporting on the current state of Iceland's economy:

Iceland In Trouble

We *do not* want this in the U.S. Unfortunately, Iceland's recent behavior resembles our own entirely too closely.

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Mr. Reich,

I sincerely hope Obama gives you an important job in the upcoming administration, where you can put your skills for clear and intelligent public communication to work on behalf of a progressive agenda. I don't disagree with anything you say here, but would like to add some complementary observations and suggestions.

Our stimulus spending on infrastructure needs to go beyond the repair of existing infrastructure, and should help implement a bold and creative strategic plan for building the new infrastructure of the 21st century. And a key organizing theme for this work should be the transformation of our national energy system and energy economy in a way which promises to make us independent of the persistent political chaos in the world's petroleum-rich but stability-poor basket cases. Americans on the left and the right are desperately eager to participate in this kind of patriotic and productive national project. They are tired of sending their sons and daughters around the world to protect our strategic position among the world's most brutal and godforsaken oil patches.

I am not opposed to a Detroit bailout. But we should think about folding a Detroit bailout into the sort of project I just vaguely described. Don't just give Detroit the money, but attach strings which mandate deep structural changes in the industry, and tie it to strategic targets on environmental protection, energy independence and energy transformation, thus using the investment to create demand and stimulate research and development in a host of other allied and subordinate industries. And perhaps the US taxpayer should purchase a piece of the action - a buyin rather than a bailout - and get a return on their investment when their project comes to fruition.

For decades US automakers have focused on serving the large US market, and abandoned the rest of the world to foreign companies who are more responsive to the needs of foreign consumers. As a result the US has continually fallen behind in both markets. There is no reason why the US should not be the global leader in the next generation of energy efficient personal transportation vehicles. We have the good workers, the engineering smarts, and the potential governmental wherewithal.

As tens or hundreds of millions of increasingly affluent Chinese start to drive more and more cars during the next several decades, who will be making those cars? Why not us? And the Chinese have deep environmental challenges of their own. Why not respond to the needs of that vast, and still mostly untapped market, along with the strategic environmental plans of the Chinese government.

And what can we do to get the Chinese - and others - to buy into this project in a way which defrays the cost to the American taxpayer? The whole world has a stake in the success and prosperity of the American economy. The capital shouldn't all come from us.

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I read somewhere that health care costs Detroit something like 2,000 dollars per car. If we had single-payer health care, U.S. car companies would instantly become more competitive on world markets. Also, one of the Japanese companies built a plant in Canada a couple of years ago instead of the U.S. specifically because of the fact that they'd have to pay for health insurance for their employees here.

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I write a post about this yesterday night, entitled: The best way to 'rescue' General Motors is single payer health care.

Our big three are all for universal healthcare, in Canada.

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The solution to Detroit's problems needs to address the inefficient dealer network that distributes their products. One advantage of letting one of the three go bankrupt is that it would remove a considerable number of dealers. Furthermore, as cars become higher in quality and require less dealer prep to correct manufacturing defects, they should be distributed through more normal merchandising channels.

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The community green or the ground we all share, it is time! Others call it common ground, common good,common purpose, etc. Reich calls it perfectly.
Definitions of the common good will be the underlying basis of the political fights. A solidified widely held and practical understanding of the public good is distasteful to much of the likely opposition as they prospered and governed with the absurd simplicity of guns and flags for everyone but with butter for the select.

On practical levels the so-called ownership society construct will not have much appeal. A prime example is health insurance; regardless of form all citizens need be covered at a some basic level as the cost of none is simply too great; i.e., the society as a whole cannot afford not to have health insurance. Finally, the inevitable debt associated with Reich's suggests are basically capital spending,bonds. The short term investments are in human capital, human beings not CDOs!

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I'm not trained as an economist, but if you just look at the money flow, you know where the big rocks are... you know where to find the money to bail us out of the mini-Depression.

The entire economy is somewhere north of $14 trillion. Of that Price Waterhouse Coopers recently estimated that $1.2 trillion is WASTED by the health care "system" (that's not for any care, it's JUST for the waste in pushing paper around, doctors filling out forms, and paying for profit of insurers, etc, etc)

Add to that the cost of "national defense" (which really means killing brown-skinned people who themselves lack adequate clean running water)... and you come up with a figure that is approaching $2 trillion of (essentially) WASTE. What country can thrive when it blows 13% or 14% of its entire economy on NOTHING at all?

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The first "spending of last resort" the government should take on this time is *National Health Care.* It meets a permanent social need and eliminates the greatest weakness in our economy (employer based health insurance). It produces professional jobs.

We can then add infrastructure work, but it must be more than down-cycle infrastructure work. The infrastructure must be maintained, not just developed.

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Repairing highways, bridges, and airports are good projects since they can begin almost immediately and are mostly publicly owned. But we also need to repair and electrify our railways and update the electric power grid which will take a bit longer. Frankly, we already have the technology to make much greater use of the wind, the sun, and geothermal sources to generate our electricity. Some of the now vacant automobile plants ran around the clock to make airplanes during WW2. Imagine those idle plants being used around the clock to manufacture wind turbines and large solar arrays. The labor to build, install and maintain these systems would all come from right here in the USA.

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Thoughts like yours make me happy. Thanks for sharing them. I have them too. Great minds...

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Amen.

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Reich on!

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Whatever government spending will do this time around, Reich's claim that "Government spending lifted America out of the Great Depression" falls under the Keynesian Big Myth technique. Anyone familiar with the economic history of the 1930's knows that in spite of all of FDR's programs, including a large amount workfare aimed at infrastructure, the depression deepened in the late 1930s, with no exit in sight. It took WWII, i.e., government expenditures and massive transfers of labor of a wholly different kind, to pull the U.S. out of the Depression.

Since the federal program to build the U.S. interstate highway system in the 1950s and early '60s, U.S. capitalism has been loathe to spend on infrastructure. For example, most if not virtually all major bridge collapses in recent decades, including the recent I-35W one in Minneapolis, can be traced to having cut corners to save money. Does Reich propose to take that on, or is he really tallking about makeshift work to buy time against a potential working class shift to the left politically - or in its absence the rise of a populist-fascist movement on the Right - by putting a few dollars in peoples' pockets, a la FDR?

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The only myth-making there is yours. There was steep economic growth (the fastest ever) during the 1930s, so that GDP was essentially back to its 1929 level before World War II started.

E.g. Wikipedia's graph of GDP:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Gdp20-40.jpg

The Great Depression may not have *ended* by the Decade but it clearly did not get worse than the end of Hoover's administration.

Which explains why, in 1936, Roosevelt won over 500 electoral college votes and more than 60% of the popular vote, to Landon's whopping 8 electoral college votes and less than 37% of the popular vote. Still the Greatest Landslide Victory in American political history... and it could not possibly have happened had the Great Depression gotten much worse from 1933 to 1936.

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I hate to break this to everyone, but public works programs were pioneered by Hoover. They extended the Great Depression.

Want to end the Depression quickly? Let the bad investments liquidate. (Nopre, that's NOT what Hoover did). That is what we did in the early 20s, and is why the 1920-1921 Depression was so short and relatively painless.

Do what we did from 1929-1941, and we'll have another twelve-year Depression.

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To paraphrase Brad DeLong, a normal person would not rely on counter-factual history to make an argument about the Great Depression. "It made it last longer" -- where is your proof?

A normal person would want to find an example of at least one country that relied on pure laissez-faire and recovered fully from its Great Depression. There is no such example.

The first thing Hoover did was a tax cut. If George W Bush was there I'm sure he would have approved. The Republican solution to everything is a noun, a verb, and a tax cut for the rich.

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Two simultaneos things happened that boosted the US economy - the US left the gold standard, and the Government started spending money.

According to Wikipedia: "Unemployment declined by over one-third in Roosevelt's first term (from 25% to 14.3%, 1933 to 1937)"

No, the US did not fully recover to the point where it had been at in 1929 until the war economy took over. But compared to the trough, things were on an upswing.

And beyond employment, there were significant improvements in home ownership and infrastructure - see the TVA for some examples of infrastructure improvements.

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The importance of targeting spending properly can be seen from the Iraq war. For the past 6 years we've been spending $100 billion plus a year, almost all of it (initially at least) going to US citizens and companies, and it's gotten us diddly. (Well, it's gotten us being an international pariah, and it probably helped prop up consumer spending in ways that guaranteed an even harder landing now that things are on the way down, so make that negative diddly.)

What's really sort of freaky to me is just how much infrastructure you could buy with, say, $700 billion (since that's apparently the number of choice for bailouts). You could fund pretty much all the transportation requests currently in the pipeline with enough money to provide health care for everyone currently uninsured, triple the budgets of the NSF, NASA and NIH, and still get back enough change to bail out the auto companies.

(I think the proposals above for conditions on bailouts are way too timorous. That's not even what we asked of Chrysler. The government should take warrants, should take -- probably through an intermediary -- seats on the board, and the bailout money should be used for complete retooling. Not "stop producing so many SUVs", but straight to the vehicles and other products people might actually need. Think more of the creative destruction at the end of WW2, when factories and production equipment were available for next to nothing to people willing to build things with them.)

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Dr. Reich, I'm a big fan of yours and am very willing to buy your argument for this approach of going for the stimulus and the deficit be damned.

But I must add that your brush-off of the latter as part of your argument is not a good idea if you really want understanding on this subject. Look, don't forget how it was the 1992 election - with Perot and, God love him, Bill Clinton - when we all learned ad nauseum how the deficit really mattered. And after Clinton got into office and addressed it, we seemingly went into a good long period of prosperity. And he attributed his focus on the deficit as a winning strategy.

So I think you and others who are out there working hard to ensure our support now of the stimulus package approach need to be sensitive to our "training" by previous Democratic braintrusts that addressing deficits is THE strategy for economic recovery. Once you help us get through this 180-degree change in direction, you can be sure we'll keep going with you - full speed!

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romath @ 3:52 PM "...'Government spending lifted America out of the Great Depression' falls under the Keynesian Big Myth technique...."
It all depends on what one means by "lifting America out of the Great Depression". It is just as easy to argue that true Keynesian policies were never used as the amount of money spent by the Federal government was too little and therefore the restoration of economic stability had to wait until WWII, where the scarcity of consumer items to buy and the rationing of those available was added to an intensive savings program to pile up something on the order of $450 billion in savings by 1945; thus averting a renewal of the Depresssion.
Had the Federal Government spent as lavishly on various projects during the 1930's as it did on winning WWII, there is every reason to believe that the Great Depression would have been overcome by steadily increasing civilian demand. At any rate, there is certainly nothing to disprove it.
If nothing else, we now have the chance to see whether Keynes was actually correct or not. Undoubtedly any attempt to truly implement Keynesian methods will be fought tooth and nail as "irresponsible" and "leading the country to bankruptcy"; something depressingly familiar to anyone who has read any history of the Great Depression.

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I hope your advice is adopted ver batim, Mr. Reich. In my view, the singlemost important stimulus would be a PAYROLL TAX HOLIDAY of perhaps three months, or a substantial lowering of the current rate. The effect would be to immediately boost take-home pay AND add cash flow to businesses, particularly small mom and pops. Without the govvie expense of printing and sending stimulus checks.

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Now is also a perfect opportunity to enact card check legislation that makes it easier for employees and unionists to organize employers into union agreements and rescind Bush's anti-middle class "no project labor agreement" executive order for federal projects.

The rise and fall of the middle class's purchasing power as compared to the very highly compensated class almost directly correlates with the increase and decrease of union membership over the last 70 years.

If the union movement seized this opportunity and immediately went into full financial transparency, maximum public relations, slash dues/working assesments to the bare bones, and maximum employer flexibility mode, I believe they could be again a powerful engine for rehabbing the country's slack ecomomy and getting the distribution of wealth back to reasonable levels.

The whole "Joe the Plumber" thing really scared me. Regular Joe after Regular Jane out here somehow is incensed by the idea of policy's that have the effect of deviding the economic opportunity pie up in a way that gives them more than the super rich - when the unknown truth is the policy's since Reagan took office are unabashedly policies to distribute more opportunity to the super wealthy! Why aren't they pissed about that? The data shows the policy's have been very sucessful in giving less spendable income to the working class and more to the very wealthy while the functions of the two classes have remained the same. Why does the middle manager now make 3 or more times the factory floor worker when he/she only used to make twice or less within the same size organization? All of the labor litigating/legislation and corporate cultural influence has been on retarding wage growth and making it harder and less attractive to unionize.

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The problem with prioritizing infrastructure jobs is that, absent a major affirmative action program, these jobs largely benefit men. Not only are men already employed by the firms that will do the work, but the jobs have specific requirements that make them difficult for women who have children. For instance, hours are often scattered across the day, particularly highway work, which would require that women have access to early morning and nighttime childcare. While these jobs might reinvigorate retail trade, I can't see women being enthusiastic about a job that pays a third of what their tax dollars are going to pay men hired for the infrastructure jobs.

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Well, there you have it, save Mr. Reich's post and then lets see what Obama and the Democrats do.

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But in the meantime have the underlying fundamentals of the economy changed? Doesn’t “peak oil” and the rising costs of externalities from 60 years of cheap oil change the basic calculus of economic development? And doesn't that mean a total retooling of our infrastructure to adapt to expensive energy?

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So, Professor Reich, just how many stimulus angels can dance on the head of a fiscal pin?

Couple days ago, Paul Krugman wrote on his blog, ""It’s time to raise Keynes: we need big fiscal stimulus, now now now."

The ol' Sandwichman commented: "What part of the word three(3) don't these stimulus addicts understand?"

You see, John Maynard Keynes wrote about THREE ingredients for a cure to unemployment but latter-day Keynesians can only count to two. Number 3? Working less. ("The Long-Term Problem of Full Employment" 1943)

A little over a week ago, Professor Reich wrote, "For now, focus on the unemployed."

In reply, S'man quoted Samuel Gompers said:

"The answer to all opponents to the reduction of the hours of labor could well be given in these words: 'That so long as there is one man who seeks employment and cannot obtain it, the hours of labor are too long.'"

Who would have thunk that J. Maynard and Sam, the cigar maker were on the same wavelength?

Look, I think fiscal stimulus is great idea for smoothing over the cyclical slumps & bumps but we're talking here about the fallout from a 30-year binge of "just one more bubble... just one, pleeease." The magnitude of fiscal stimulus required in proportion to the number of jobs that will be created is just not sufficient.

Just because JMK said "in the long term we're all dead" doesn't mean the long term never comes. The problem we face now is the one for which Keynes prescribed working less. But the erstatz Keynesians want to keep going back to his intermediate solutions. Been there. Done that. Ate it all up.

Next... the work less jubilee.

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Your 'work less jubilee' link is broken.

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Try again:
Work Less Jubilee

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Totally agree with everything you say. However, when it comes to the definition of 'infrastructure' -- I think we should look beyond the classic 'road-building' concept.

I would look ahead 30-40 years, think what kind of society we want to live in and work our way backwards to today. What does the ideal look like? Say we'd like to see educated (and nourished) children, healthy people, and reasonably high employment. To get there, we would need good schools, a decent system of food production and delivery, accessible healthcare, and good local jobs. Whatever infrastructure goals we adopt today would have to prioritize based on those principles.

Let's set the goal at 10,000 news schools, 10,000 new libraries, 10,000 day-care centers, 10,000 new neighborhood health clinics (staffed with people who live nearby), 10,000 parks, 10,000 new family farms who distribute their goods within 100 miles, and 100,000 new small business startups each with less than 100 employees (with tax breaks to encourage buying from supplies manufactured within 100 miles of each other). Too modest? How about 100,000 schools, libraries, etc.

Imagine all the support activity that this will generate across all levels of society. Forcing geographic proximity cuts down on energy use, wear-and-tear of the roadways, and builds local hives of self-supporting commerce. By reducing concentration of location-specific industries we make it so trained personnel can flow between regions and be assured that they can find jobs. We make it so the brand isn't just 'Made in the USA' but 'Made in Jackson County.'

This will go hand-in-hand with distributed green-power generation plants. If the power doesn't need to be shunted across a nation-wide grid, you can make do with smaller generation facilities. The more local it stays, the less you lose in transit. Instead of large-scale power generation sources using polluting fuels, we have 10,000 local power plants that use renewable sources, are cost-effective, and can keep going for the rest of the century without ever running out of fuel.

Distribution (of energy, knowledge, manufacturing, commerce, etc) also gets us better fault-tolerance and built-in redundancy. It means that if something disruptive happens in one region, it won't affect the whole country. Yes, you don't get the economies of scale, but the goal is to jump-start the 'distributed economy' and build a vibrant commercial ecosystem, not to make cheap, low-margin junk that benefit only a few companies.

To be able to pull this off, we'd need training, communication, and good coordination. That's where high-tech investment comes in. It'll help spread the knowledge, boost efficiency, and push the benefits down to the local level. Let's also remember that the Internet infrastructure was designed from the beginning for this sort of decentralization.

As an aside, I believe the so-called 'Shock Doctrine' can be harnessed for both good and bad. An emergency can be abused by those who want to acquire power or wealth, or used to 'shock' society out of complacency and past the petty objections of those who only care about their taxes.

We are clearly in an emergency. Where we go with it is largely up to those in charge and whether they have the vision to look ahead 30-40 years and act now.

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Nice to read these rational thoughts after a.m. conversations with my very wealthy employer. He is infuriated with the changes Obama will bring. He claims his taxes will go up because he's being forced to "spread his wealth" to poor people and "others" who can't manage life or work hard. He claims the government is forcing his hard earned dollars into a charity program.
Clearly, my attempt to suggest that the health of an entire organism is required for any of it's parts to maintain viability, were ill spent on angry, deaf ears. He says it doesn't matter to him personally because he'll be dead before any "good" can be realized in his own coffers.
Lovely perspective.
It would make me laugh if I didn't realize he's not the lone ranger. However, how does one influence such illogical perspectives? I'm clueless.

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We're broke, the empire is fading, the oil is petering out,the spirit is lacking, and the leadership is truly Roman. Time to become like Britain.

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OK people, what sort of economy we have is dependent on what sort of expectations we have. People won't take risks because they believe there is no reward. A paradigm shift is required, much like WW2 changed depression era thinking. It's what brought us the internet age and all the benefits it brought along.

Here is the kind of thing that can excite optimism about the future as opposed to depression era nostrums that just remind us all what a grind we have to endure....

Mini nuclear plants to power 20,000 homes
Nuclear power plants smaller than a garden shed and able to power 20,000 homes will be on sale within five years, say scientists at Los Alamos, the US government laboratory which developed the first atomic bomb.
The miniature reactors will be factory-sealed, contain no weapons-grade material, have no moving parts and will be nearly impossible to steal because they will be encased in concrete and buried underground.
The US government has licensed the technology to Hyperion, a New Mexico-based company which said last week that it has taken its first firm orders and plans to start mass production within five years. 'Our goal is to generate electricity for 10 cents a watt anywhere in the world,' said John Deal, chief executive of Hyperion. 'They will cost approximately $25m [£13m] each. For a community with 10,000 households, that is a very affordable $250 per home.'

The eminent arrival of low cost, nearly limitless power, transportable to any place in the world, by a process safe enough to be used by students, will literally change the world. Deliver this, and everything else will take care of itself.

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Excellent piece. I would add: (1) bring the troops home from Iraq as quickly as reasonable, (2) terminate as many federal contracts with third parties in Iraq as possible, (3) use some of the savings to meet the medical and employment/training needs of our returning soldiers, and (4) eliminate as much of the Bush/GOP pork and redirect it to programs that further stimulate the economy.

Two other points: (1) We need rail -- all kinds of rail. (2) The weak demand is largely a function of government-sponsored upward income redistribution under Bush. Tax progressivity and raising the cap on Social Security are overdue.

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Obvious yet brilliant. Dr Reich is basically saying J Consumer can be raped by Reaganomics for only so long.

Consumers are cutting back on everything other than necessities. Because their spending accounts for 70 percent of the nation's economic activity and is the flywheel for the rest of the economy, the precipitous drop in consumer spending is causing the rest of the economy to shut down.

70 percent! I have never understood (well no; I actually do) why US fiscal policy ignores Joe/Jane Consumer in favor of 'the wealthy;' is there anyone here who actually believes in the trickle-down/supply-side theory of ecomonics?

What's the minimum wage again? How's median income doing (and btw, what's the actual difference between median and avg income?)? Etc etc.

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Sure, what do you want to know? Well, let me shorten the process for you. Wealth trickles down, rather than up, because those smart/talented/lucky enough to create and accumulate wealth... do. The people to whom wealth trickles down to, can't.

That pretty much sums up the process.

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How did those at the top, get there? Did they produce a product, that those at the bottom wanted to buy? If those at the bottom had not bought, would there be new ones at the top.

Even those at the top of the food chain need the smallest, it's called the eco system.

Maybe we should define the Eco system and it's relationship in the eco nomic (financial) world?

If the Human race was was symbolized by a luxuriant tree, the top would wither, if it weren't for the roots. Deep roots. Not a casual sprinkling from the top.

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How did those at the top, get there? Did they produce a product, that those at the bottom wanted to buy? If those at the bottom had not bought, would there be new ones at the top.
Yes. But you're making the mistake of equating consumers with producers. Any idiot can consume, it takes someone special to build. Not everyone can run a business which is required to provide jobs. So, the distinction is whether to support people that are capable of providing benefits to others, or people that can't.
If the Human race was was symbolized by a luxuriant tree,
Oh brother. A better analogy is money as a plot of ground. If a producer clears, plows, seeds, and waters the ground, something nutritious comes up. If the plot is given to a consumer, you get weeds. Which do you think is the better outcome?
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Sorry Reich, but the only way to get out of a depression is a WAR. Building infrastructure didn't help much in the 30's. It was WWII that pulled the US out of the depression. The war on terror (common enemy to join the citizens around to increase worker productivity) and the housing bubble helped after the orgies in the 80's and 90's. Now there are no bubbles left. Building bridges takes long and they last too long. Another WAR is needed. Pulling back troops will only hurt the military industrial complex and bring home unemployed soldiers. How about a war in Iraq? Another cold war maybe against China... or India, some big country at least. Need common enemy to unit the workers and increase output. Communist, Nazi... whatever, the terror label isn't working well anymore. Hope isn't an enemy.

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We've already got two wars. You think we need more?

Seems to me the better question is why the massive spending on Afghanistan/Iraq isn't helping the economy more.

The first answer that occurs to me is that too much of the money is going to private contractors (Blackwater, et al) who are skimming off so much profit that the money isn't being recycled through the economy as one would expect it would.

The other answer is that while we are spending a ton on the war, there is no corresponding savings program (War Bonds), nor rationing.

During the Cold War a large percentage of the spending went to the aerospace industry, which generated a lot of high-paying jobs. Much of that work (precision machining, for example) is today subcontracted to foreign suppliers.

I don't think starting another big war (hot or cold) is going to help much until we redirect the money. I'm not much of a protectionist, but if we're spending money specifically to stimulate our economy, we should try to keep the money in *our* economy.

Rather than another war, my favorite form of "aerospace welfare" to avoid a meltdown in that sector would be a much more ambitious space program, both manned and robotic.

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""aerospace welfare" to avoid a meltdown in that sector would be a much more ambitious space program, both manned and robotic."
Another trip to the moon (or Mars)??? What's the point, how will that benefit us in any realistic way (sounds like a 20 year plan)? International space station hasn't brought much so far. Growing protein crystals in space (no gravity). Great use of taxpayers money!
No give me a real war, 1 missile > $2million. Drop 100k of those and the economy could really start growing. It's still just surgical strikes. Sounds innocent enough to me. As for Iraq, we need growth, so either another surge, or expand the war on terror. Staying where we are won't increase the size of the economy.

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I agree on all the fundamental assumptions you make Prof. Reich, however, I would love to hear from you why you don't mention and nobody (as far as I can tell) on the Democratic side of things ever mentions direct relief for ALL homeowners on their mortgages.

Why wouldn't it make sense for Uncle Sam to offer ever homeowner in America a 3% fixed rate, 30 year mortgage on their primary residence right now? Lowering mortgage interest rates on all existing mortgages would have a very favorable impact on stemming the rising number of foreclosures taking place and it would also free up an enormous amount of money for consumer and other spending because a great deal of money currently being spent on mortgage interst would become available in ever region of the nation and among all income groups. It seems to me this would be an excellent means of stemming the tide of economic collapse, provide a great deal of relief to regular American families who need and deserve it and help to stabilize the economic climate.

Why do Democrats never talk about this? I really would like to hear what you have to say about this Professor Reich.

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I commented on this idea above. I don't think it's a good idea on the whole. And would you extend this to current renters who want to buy?

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Why not? And why wouldn't it be a good idea? The regular people of the nation are the one's who will have to pay for whatever is done to rescue the economy. Why is it so difficult for people to think in terms of providing relief to them as opposed to the wealthy interests such as GM that have driven themselves into the ground due to greed and stupidity?

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We aren't discussing relief for GM, we are discussing boosting the economy from the bottom up. That's going to help a lot more people than low-interest-loans for homeowners who overextended themselves and now have negative equity. A policy that, by the way, doesn't help people who rent because they realized that buying a house in the last few years would be a foolish economic decision.

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Your opinion is not fact though you seem to think it is.

In any event, I'm looking for Professor Reich's opinion and not yours. Thanks anyway.

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Also, you don't seem to be able to grasp what I'm talking about in the first place. I am not talking about or suggesting offering low interest loans to homeowners in trouble. I am suggesting offering this to ALL homeowners on their primary residence. You seem to have a bone to pick with folks you think made a bad home mortgage decision. That's not what I'm talking about. They would be included, but I'm talking about something far broader and with far more impact and that's why I would like Prof. Reich's opinion.

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Handing over money without limit to everyone who has purchased more house than they can afford is not on my list of things I would support. Some mortgage relief, yes. But not just massive do-overs for people who, in many cases, attempted to make a lot of money by investing in real estate. There's a difference between people who are legitimately in need and people who overspent rather wildly or bought houses expecting to flip them within a year or two for a big profit. Whatever relief there is needs to be carefully targeted so that it doesn't just become a giant transfer of wealth to people who made unwise choices that were pretty predictably unwise. Don't get me wrong -- plenty of folks legitimately need help, and I'm all for helping them. But I like Reich's ideas, which offer relief by raising incomes, to direct mortgage relief, which only adds to the already egregiously imbalanced favoritism shown to homeowners over others.

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But massive do-overs for the wealthy, greedy and now insolvent financial sector is okay? Why do people think it is okay to punish the people who weren't at fault here but we should not punish the scoundrels who were? This is, after all, the money of us all. Why not provide everyone in American---not just those who have overextended on their mortgages but everyone. Everyone would benefit and everyone would be more able to spend their money on other things and we would be paying ourselves back as opposed to simply handing the money to Goldman Sachs and a few other firms so they can buy up more banks.

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"But massive do-overs for the wealthy, greedy and now insolvent financial sector is okay?"

I didn't say that.

"Why do people think it is okay to punish the people who weren't at fault here but we should not punish the scoundrels who were?"

Or that.

"This is, after all, the money of us all."

I don't even know what this means. *What* is the money of us all?

"Why not provide everyone in American---not just those who have overextended on their mortgages but everyone."

Why not provide everyone what?

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Comeon onceminnesotan,
I too was one,

You know exactly what we're giving everyone, a low interest loan. No discrimination. Rich and poor alike,

Good for the goose, good for the gander

Some have said it was low interest loans that overheated the economy, they're right.

So now that the economy is slowing down, how to you heat it up again? LOWER THE RATES. We know it works, why are we ignoring the cure, to a cooling and turning cold, slowdown.

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Look, until you guys get over deciding which of the unimportant players in this crisis you DON'T want to reward, nothing is going to happen on the housing crisis front. Please do your research, figure out what you can get done and suggest an actual plan by which you would do it.

Mortgage rewrites at 3% for everyone in the country? You are talking about paying the banks to rewrite how many million mortgages? And last time I looked, pre-existing contracts were taken pretty seriously. What do you propose to do about that?

Huge incentives to home ownership? May I point out that offering home ownership to some people who unfortunately were not stable enough to consistently pay is part of how we got into this mess (yes, an unfortunate but real piece of the puzzle).

And I just don't understand this focus on the "bad decisionmakers." Do you really want to kick your own neighbors out of their houses because they believed housing values in your neighborhoods would keep going up? While rewarding the banks that wrote the products for them by shelling out full-value guarantees via Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac?

In the hardest-hit neighborhoods, people are in this spot because their neighborhoods fell apart. Not because they were trying to get rich in terms of what "rich" means to the genuinely rich. The money to be made from buying one (or god forbid, a few) house/s you can't afford pales by comparison with the money to be made by inventing and trading credit-default-swaps. Good lord, where is the perspective here?

I like and respect you, but please consider what the realities are and make your suggestions accordingly.....

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Sorry, I get a little worked up sometimes.

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Why pay the banks to do this? The government itself could easily do this but in the process, the potentially bad loans that or on the books of the banks would be paid off and it would help stem the bleeding in the banking industry without rewarding the guys who created the problem. It's far more beneficial to taxpayers than the current policy of dumping money into banks so the biggest firms like Goldman Sachs can buy up other banks and to otherwise keep irresponsible bankers in business. We taxpayers will never see that money again and it isn't going to be used for any purpose other than to continue to line the pockets of the scoundrels who ought to be prosecuted for what they've done. All the hooey about protections against big bonuses and the like is nothing but window dressing that won't stop them from feeding at will at the public trough.

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i know what you are saying but somebody is going to have to write up the paperwork to pay off the previous loans and create the new ones, and it's going to be the people who worked in the industry in the first place. I see what you are going for but my idea is for immediate stabilization where yours is more philosophical and long term.

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I would point out to you as I did to another above that you mistake what I am suggesting. I am not suggesting helping people who are in trouble. I am suggesting freeing up massive amounts of spendable income throughout the economy by offering all homeowners a low interest, fixed rate mortgage directly from the government. Everyone would be eligible and everyone would have a lot more money to spend as stimulus. It would happen to help those who got in over their heads or who are among the 10,000 foreclosures daily as a result of all kinds of things other than bad decisions. For example, would you call it a bad decision to lose your job as many have who are now facing foreclosure? I think not. It's amazing how judgemental people are and how harsh people are on this subject.

The logic is that the very same people who would be receiving the low-interest mortgages are the people upon whose backs all this spending to rescue the economy is going to be put. Why not provide some relief to the American people directly so they are more able to bear the tax burden that is without question going to be coming their way in the years ahead? Even if Obama's tax cuts for those under $250K go through, over time, everyone will have to pay more to pay off all this spending.

And that's why I'd like Prof. Reich's view on such a possiblity without all the vindictiveness from people assuming that this is some sort of "reward" for those who may have gotten into trouble on their mortgages. This sort of thing would help them too but that's not what I'm asking about.

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I say go for it then. I agree with you that most of the people who got caught up in the mortgage mess were not big players and really don't deserve the abuse that's been heaped on them. If reich thinks a total overhaul would be good maybe it's worth discussing.

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I don't think that we should increase spending on health care. At about 16% of GDP, we spend more on health care than on food or housing. Much spending on health care is consumption, with no future return on the expenditures. A large part of the spending is on elderly in the last months of life, and another large part is on chronic illnesses, which are maintained but not cured.

Instead of an increase in overall health care spending, it should be shifted away from insurance companies, corporate benefits consultancies, healthcare payment processors and the other numerous intermediaries and admistrators, and towards the actual care givers - doctors, nurses, and other practitioners. Investments should be made in a new organization with standardized and efficient information technology systems to replace today's intermediaries. Investments should also be made in research to achieve more cost effective treatments and to evaluate drugs, medical supplies, and technologies for effectiveness as well as safety.

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A revival of FDR's WPA to rebuild our infrastructure would probably be the best path to economic recovery, although I still think it will be a tall order for President Elect Obama and his Administration when we're facing wars on two fronts and an economy in crisis. I think Professor Reich that you've laid out some pretty solid solutions in this article and I have great faith that an Obama Administration will be able to take great strides in undoing the errors of the past 8 years.

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Professor Reich argues that absent consumer spending, investments will not be made. I do not think that demand size economics is the way to make the case for a government stimulus. Even with sufficient demand, businesses were already beginning to suffer declining profitability. Government deficit spending can stimulate new investments not simply by providing final demand but also by improving profitability and thereby whetting the appetite for businesses to make new investments.

How can government do this against the threat of Ricardian equivalence, i.e. the depressive effects huge deficts can have on businesses today as they anticipate the taxing away of future profits to pay for the debt incurred today to pay for expansive government programs.

Three ways.
1. Government can increase the pool of new scientific and technological knowledge on which businesses can draw to capture and make new markets and rationalize their energy costs. That is, government spending will stimulate new investments by raising the profit outlook or what Keynes called the marginal efficiency of capital

2. Government intervention can help to rationalize the health care system and bring down the costs of health care for workers and businesses as a whole.

3. A better educated and healthier workforce will also be more productive and thus profitable to hire. So education spending will crowd in new private investments.

I would thus challenge Professor Reich's defense of deficit spending in terms of shoring up final demand, rather than shoring up profitability.

That is, I think there is a case that profitability problems are more the cause of weakening demand than their cause. That is, because new investments have not proven profitable, businesses are not expanding, and that in turn creates deficient consumer demand which then of course compounds profitability difficulties.

Government spending can crowd in new investments.

I would advise Professor Reich to make the case this way to business because it is more likely to create bipartisan support for the government deficit spending that we now need.

Supercapitalism is a brilliant book.

Your colleague
Rakesh Bhandari

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But isn't supercapitalism the root cause of our current problem. It ran amok and is in need of regulation. Also, the issue of profitability has at its core globalization. While your post is well written it is wide of the mark in several key areas.

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I think you have made a strong case for your perspective but clearly it is meaningless unless it is tied to a long term strategy. I am not in support of us spending more massive amounts of money until it is thought through with all of its ramifications for our country and the world. How will we get out of debt? How will this strategy affect the world economy? I would really like to see the experts supporting our new president bring back the old native american tradition of asking how their decision will affect that next 7 generations... well at least a couple would be great!

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A revival of FDR's WPA to rebuild our infrastructure would probably be the best path to economic recovery, although I still think it will be a tall order for President Elect Obama and his Administration when we're facing wars on two fronts and an economy in crisis. I think Professor Reich that you've laid out some pretty solid solutions in this article and I have great faith that an Obama Administration will be able to take great strides in undoing the errors of the past 8 years.

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You have Obama's ear, hopefully you are aiding in stteering him into the right direction.

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Discussing productivity in the context of demand stimulus:

"The pertinent issue is how much underutilized capacity exists in the economy. When there's lots of idle capacity, deficit spending is entirely appropriate, as John Maynard Keynes taught us. Moving the economy to fuller capacity will of itself shrink future deficits."


That's supply side, a contradiction of the thesis. Churning is not productive economic behavior. It's a cancer on society, recycling wealth at best, theft otherwise.

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Continuing the thought:

"So the crucial questions become (1) how much will the government have to spend to get the economy back on track? and (2) what sort of spending will have the biggest impact on jobs and incomes?"

Reich answers #2 with: "infrastructure", health care and child care.

While healthy workers are more productive than sick workers generally, and cheap child care allows an extra parent to go into the workforce, we're looking at rising unemployment so we don't need more parents trying to enter the usual workforce and unless I'm way out of touch we don't need workers who are waaay healthier. So Reich fails on both these counts.

Infrastructure is a mixed bag. The parts which directly facilitate and improve productivity at low long term cost seem like good things. But taking marginal factors as key issues and treating outliers as mainstream data points is dishonest.

On a related note, Reich says we can't count on I, or "investment" so we must rely on G. This needs proof. Sure, some large projects with marginal likely returns are beyond private investment. But what exactly needs investment anyway? Reich's blithe dismissal of I is a cheap trick to argue for more big G.

Also, why not have G&I together, that is G investing, as in the revised "bailout" bill, but this time instead of funneling money to those who created the finanacial crisis, how about Investing in the future, moving forward Green Economy Investment such as energy independence ideas, now? That will surely create both jobs and good domestic results in the medium term. Have the government "invest" in promising enterprises, AS A MEDIUM TERM STOCKHOLDER.

Avoid quick fixes especially when they come with a BIG long term price tag. If you haven't read Naomi Klein's _Shock Doctrine_, at least look it up. It applies to any kind of administration.


Keep an Obama Administration honest and on track.