Remember LBJ, Mr. President: Go For It All The First Year
Lyndon Johnson understood that the honeymoon would be short. After the largest landslide in history -- with the biggest Democratic Congressional majorities ever -- he acted as if he had a year to get his Great Society enacted.
"You've got to give it all you can, that first year," he told an aide. "Doesn't matter what kind of a majority you come in with. You've got just one year when they treat you right, and before they start worrying about themselves."
His worry about the imminent loss of his mandate could be specific. In January 1965 as his four-year term was beginning and at the pinnacle of popularity, he told top administration officials that he had already lost three of his sixteen million-vote plurality of November 3. "I was just elected President by the biggest popular margin in the history of the country...because Barry Goldwater had simply scared hell out of them, I've already lost about three of those sixteen. After a fight with Congress or something else, I'll lose another couple of million. I could be down to 8 million in a couple of months."
So what did he do. Within one year -- by the summer of 1965 -- he had achieved the Civil Rights Act of 1964, the Voting Rights Act of 1965, Medicare, the Elementary and Secondary Education Acts, and a host of other laws that changed America and which, of course, made Barack Obama's election possible.
It was a good thing that he didn't wait because by 1966, his Vietnam policies had eroded his popularity and the Republicans won back most of the Congressional seats they lost two years earlier. But those LBJ laws from 1965 are still with us -- thank God -- forever.
My job is to work on the Middle East and I believe, and hope, Obama will wrap up Israeli-Palestinian and Israeli-Syrian agreements by the spring. He has the authority. He has the leverage. And, despite what the lobby says, it's easy to do if the President understands who holds the cards: he does. He just has to play them. The same applies to the more complicated domestic issues.
We don't want and we don't need another DLC Presidency. We need this President to push hard for the same kind of transformational change in policy that he has already achieved in our politics.
He can't please everybody. Powerful interests are organizing against him already. But, so long as Obama understands the leverage he has, he can give us another New Deal or Great Society. Every interest group -- every lobby -- lives in fear that a popular President will take them on. That is why they will always advise him to "wait. Don't do it the first year" (do it when when can stop you!).
Go for it. We've got your back. Obamacrats and Obamacans can do this. Together. We are the majority now and we have a leader -- for the first time since FDR and LBJ -- who has the will to change America.
Just don't get us into a war and you'll finish what FDR started and L:BJ continued.
As Tony Kushner wrote, "The Great Work Begins."
For sure, there is waiting a heavy load of work for Obama, more than a year's worth. LBJ's example is valid. One thing that has changed since 1965, or perhaps evolved, is the inclination of the Senate Republicans to filibuster, or threaten to filibuster (which is just as effective as the real thing, or more so) anything they don't like, and the inclination of the Democratic leadership of the Senate to let them get away with it without a real fight, not to mention without some all-nighters. This is going to have to change if Obama is going to successfully address a long agenda of urgent things to do. I suggest that he and Biden together are going to have to invest some personal time with the Dems in the Senate and lead them into a new approach to running the world's greatest deliberative body.
November 5, 2008 10:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
Enjoy the next 8 years, John.
November 5, 2008 11:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
I hate to trot out the "best and brightest" trope, but one of the many encouraging things about Obama is his obvious respect for experience and ability. At the start of the financial crisis, it was great to see Paul Volcker and Bob Rubin up on the stage with him. I expect we are going to see a cabinet of very high caliber people, all of whom will hit the ground running.
November 5, 2008 11:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
You make a very good point M.J. The 2010 election will most likely erode the Democratic majorities in Congress, and probably even end that majority in the Senate. And, this is if things go well for two years. If anything goes badly, Obama will be working with a Repub Congress in 2011.
I don't think Obama is inclined to shoot for the moon like LBJ did. I just hope his cabinet and advisers are able to steer him in that direction. One of the first things I hope he does is issue countermanding presidential orders to reverse most of the harm Bush did. And, most essential of those is to bring the government back into compliance with the Constitution and the laws.
He needs to get GITMO shut down, the POW's there repatriated, the Patriot Act gutted, the spying on Americans stopped, the renditions of political prisoners stopped, habeus corpus restored, etc. All of that before February 15th. Only after that, should he get a exit strategy for Iraq in place, and, in my opinion, an exit strategy for Afghanistan - before Feb 28th.
Now he can start seriously working on universal health care, etc.
November 5, 2008 11:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
LBJ was a continuation of JFK, to a large degree. Obama has a more difficult job.
November 5, 2008 11:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
Start quickly with do-able highly symbolic gestures like: close Guantanamo Bay; then an action to symbolize a return to the Bill of Rights and the Constitution. Agree that restoration of habeas corpus, or revision of the Patriot Act would be useful. I think that some sort of economic stimulus in the form of investment in infrastructure, creating jobs would be well-received. Lastly some tough action with the "banking community", like: don't just sit on all the bailout money the taxpayers just gave you, would be well-received. Keep the connection with the people; government can and must work for the people.
November 5, 2008 12:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
ric,
I agree with everything but the Gitmo comment. I wouldn't mind a prison at Gitmo as long as we're holding guilty people there, people who have had a speedy trial with representation.
Captured POWs are just that, and I see no problem keeping them at Gitmo.
Fighting the kind of war we're fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan can make it almost impossible, at times, to know the difference between an enemy soldier and someone who is a victim of circumstances, being in the wrong place at the wrong time....or, having a neighbor who doesn't like you.
By the way, I have no doubt we're holding some nasty people in Gitmo
November 5, 2008 4:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama has shown himself to be an exceptionally skilled campaigner and orator. But to get things through Congress, you must master it and few have mastered it like LBJ did. That was the reason for his efficiency. It's difficult to imagine anyone being able to be like an LBJ for a while.
If anything, Obama will be in the Reagan mode -- if he can't get what he needs through Congress, he will appeal directly to the American people with his oratory skills. In that case, you have to pick your targets far more carefully.
November 5, 2008 12:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
LBJ earned his powerful and well-connected position by service spanning decades. Even in a shorter span in state legislature and Washington, Obama was effective.
Reagan was an actor and governor. I expect rather more effective liason with Congress than Reagan had, but mainly there will not be the opposition Congress Reagan had.
November 6, 2008 11:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think you are right on the money.
There surely are a variety of destructive interests that have already been working out how they will neuter Obama, dumb him down and ensure he does not become the great president he is capable of becoming.
And Obama was advised to not run until he had more experience. He was right not to wait then, and I think you are right that he should go full steam ahead to make any changes he's hoping to make.
November 5, 2008 12:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
...some substantial results, early in his presidency, will also fortify his chances for a second term.
November 5, 2008 12:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
One of Reagan's first actions was to issue an executive order stopping and suspending all government regulatory actions that were underway. That was a major action, and it certainly got people's attention - no Congressional action required. President Obama can do something similar in reversing the mass of EO's that Bush issued.
November 5, 2008 1:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
You're absolutely right, MJ. Right-wing Republicans are already organizing themselves to thwart Obama --not just on specific policy, but on slowing any success so they can run against him and the Dem's in 2010 as "ineffective."
Team Obama, however, is much more organized and forced to adopt a greater sense of urgency than Team Clinton was at the same point in time. My advice to him would be:
1. Pack the Courts -- have a pre-vetted list of progressive nominees, including any wrongly blocked by the Republican Right during the Clinton years, and push them through starting Day One.
2. Restore Tax Fairness -- repeal the Bush tax giveaways to the rich, enact the middle class cuts promised in the campaign.
3. End Bush Stem Cell Ban -- remove the Bush ban that limits federal research to existing lines.
4. End Bush Ban on aid to international Family Planning -- this backward bit of Reaganite censorship should be removed on Obama's first day.
5. Launch Key Investigations into Right-Wing Republican Criminals -- scores of corrupt Republicans and members of the conservative political establishment have been shielded from scrutiny by the Bush administration. From war profiteers to Scooter Libby to Tom DeLay to at-large members of the Abramoff Criminal Enterprise, they should be neutralized via aggressive investigation and forced to compensate taxpayers. Expect lots of crimes by Bush admin members to be revealed once they're out of office.
6. Tax & Punish the Oil Cartel -- enact an immediate windfall profit tax on oil companies to fund alternative energy research and veteran care.
7. Punish Corporate Predators -- enact new laws mandating massive fines and jail time for Enron-type corporate criminals and officers of companies who use offshore tax shelters to evade US taxes.
8. Convene Summit of World Leaders -- make a clear break from Bush extremism in foreign policy and forge new alliances to defeat al Qaeda, nuclear prolifieration and global poverty.
November 5, 2008 1:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
MJ,
I know you've been gushing over Obama now for about 7 months and now that he's elected your enthusiasm is even greater, but you need to look at his track record. The moment of truth is near now about whether Obama is going to be the liberal you are hoping he is or the corporate/centrist he has said he is and that he has demonstrated he is with things like conditional support for nuclear power, his unnecessary sell-out on the FISA vote, his reversal on guns and more.
Many of you who have been vocal cheerleaders for Obama have been operating on the assumption that his moderate positions were "only" for the campaign but that he would be a real Democratic liberal once elected. Clearly his campaign was winking and nodding that this was so to many in the media. But there's no evidence that this is the case either in his legislative record or in terms of the campaign. Quite the opposite in fact.
I hope you are right, but if, for example, the rumor is true that he has already offered Rahm Emmanuel the Chief of Staff position, then clearly you are wrong. Nobody could be a more integral part of what is wrong with Washington DC and our politics than that guy. What a bad omen that is if true!
Perhaps Obama will be as you want him to be, but I don't see any evidence for it. I see lots of foreshadowing that tells me Obama is going to "prove" he isn't a creature of Democratic Liberals by doing things pretty much as they've always been done and that his much vaunted change is going to be more cosmetic than substantive.
My question for you is this, if it becomes apparent that Obama is not going to actually be the liberal Democrat you wish he was and that he is going to turn his back on the liberals who put him where he is today, will you just as energetically do what you can to mobilize people to put pressure on him to respond to the wing of the party that made his victory plausible?
After all, if it weren't for the instant support of a substantial number of white liberals, Obama's story would have been far different than what we've seen. If he walks away from the liberal wing of the party as he did on FISA and other issues, will you exhort people to put pressure on him or will you counsel people to keep on giving him chance after chance and rationalizing his conduct as somehow politically necessary as many did about his FISA flip flop?
Again, I hope I'm wrong but I wouldn't bet on it. What say you MJ?
November 5, 2008 2:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you Robert F. Kennedy for your kindness and foresight in April 1968.
November 5, 2008 2:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Or Goethe
Start the process now of pegging the military budget to an affordable % of the GDP,one which will produce an absolute level about = to our two nearest competitors instead of , as now, all the rest of the world.
Not to be achieved nextyear. More likely not until the middle of his second term. But starting now down the glide path that get's us there.
Where we can easily afford honoring the entitlements, maintaining the infrastructure AND capping the National Debt at an acceptable % of the GDP. Which translates into lower bond yields and higher growth.
November 5, 2008 11:04 PM | Reply | Permalink