Predictions and questions
Barack Obama's percentage of the popular vote will not be very close to his percentage of the electoral college vote. Although he will win both, why is it good for democracy if the two percentages diverge?
Although Democrats have widened the battleground in a wholly admirable manner, this election will be the third in a row to raise the question of the wisdom of the electoral college in modern America.
When an election precedes the census by only two years, the deviation between the electoral college and popular vote result is potentially the greatest.
After the 2010 census the Presidential battleground will shift westward and southward.
Why again isn't there national, on-line registration? And why isn't there a baseline minimum requirement for rapid and accurate vote-counting at the state level, with some federal funding for states that need the money. I expect more than 130 million people will vote; perhaps 140 million. It's a complex process that should be substantially more computerized, routinized, and federally subsidized.
Why didn't the FCC require ABC to carry the half-hour of Obammercial? The ratings were great; ABC cut off its nose to spite its face, but it also let down the country. Where was the FCC on this?
Why don't broadcast TV stations provide much more information about local races? Why doesn't the FCC act on this topic?

















I don't want the federal interference. From what we've seen out of the Bush administration that's a recipe for a Republican dynasty. People need to act locally to demand improvements in state procedures. We don't have problems with voting in Minnesota. We allow same day registration. We usually rank in the top 1 or 2 in percentage of people voting. It doesn't seem to be complicated here. You have plenty of places to vote. You have plenty of machines available for voters. You staff the polls with people trained to assist voters. You let people vote. You count the votes. It's not difficult if your intention to to maximize the ability of people to vote. That has long been the tradition here. If it isn't the tradition in other states, it's not because it can't be done, it's because they don't want it done.
November 2, 2008 10:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
.
Howdy Bluebell
Yup ... because where I reside we are designed to work from the bottom up, not from the top down. It's better to keep the federal bureaucratic industry residing in the swamplands of DC out of our local process, governed by our local laws, as much feasibly possible.
How about the feds returning more than the measly 0.67 cents we get in return for each dollar we send to Washington?
~OGD~
*Cafe contributor since June 2005*
November 3, 2008 6:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for your patience and sorry for the inconvenience!
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December 22, 2010 6:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
This is a smart blog. I mean it. You have so much knowledge about this issue, and so much passion. You also know how to make people rally behind it, obviously from the responses. Youve got a design here thats not too flashy, but makes a statement as big as what youre saying. Great job,children health indeed.
January 19, 2011 8:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
Perhaps because our government is, and has been with few exceptions throughout the history of our nation, been an instrument of the rich and powerful, the same interests who instituted the electoral college because they distrusted the unwashed masses. The same interests which borrowed $5 million from the French to finance the American revolution and imposed the Whiskey Tax disproportionately upon the poorer hill farmers to repay the debt. The same interests who promiscuously distributed railroad grants which paid the beneficiaries by the mile, in money and land, to build railroads that had to be rebuilt twice in fifty years with public funds. The same interests which enabled the looting of the S&Ls by obediently raising the amount of funds insured through the FDIC. And the same interests which deregulated the banking industry and enabled the investment banks to create unregulated, little understood toxic "investment vehicles" the collapse of which resulted in the current economic problems.
Really, isn't the same old story?
November 2, 2008 10:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
I like Oregon's model. Vote by mail with more than 86% turnout in the 2004 election. No fancy touch-screens, no butterfly ballots, absolutely no new technology required... just good ol' fill in the bubble ballots. There are no lines to deal with and no need to get time off work. The only thing missing is a carbon copy of your ballot and a website where you can ensure your vote was not flipped somewhere upstream.
November 2, 2008 10:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree. For twenty years I voted by mail in Washington state because my precinct had so few voter the county auditor determined it would save the taxpayers money to mail our ballots to us.
But anyone in the USA may vote by mail be requesting an absentee ballot.
This evening I hear an elderly voter in Florida complaining about the length of lines for early voting and though, well, why didn't you long ago request an absentee ballot.
November 2, 2008 10:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
The burden shouldn't be on voters to figure out how to avoid an ordeal. The burden should be on the various levels of government to avoid making voting an ordeal in the first place.
And there are plenty of big-population states that don't offer no-excuse early/absentee voting, including New York, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Michigan and Missouri.
The Oregon model sounds great. I wonder why no other state has followed its lead.
November 2, 2008 11:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
bluebell is 100% correct. Federal intervention brought us the Bush-Rove "Help America Vote Act"--the biggest move to sabotage elections and suppress voting since the disenfranchisement of Black voters in the 1890's era. (And typically for Karl Rove's style, it was given a name exactly opposite to its actual intended purpose.)
We DON'T need more computers. You get comments from people in Canada and Australia--two reasonably advanced nations--who explain that they vote on paper ballots. THAT is what we need. Why the automatic assumption that every damn thing has to be computerized? If computerized, elections can be rigged---they HAVE been rigged---and it's the perfect crime, since there's no physical evidence.
You can't "recount" whatever the machine tells you; you're just stuck with it. What happened to the 18,000 votes that vanished in that Florida congressional election 2 years ago? And what happened in Ohio (and a number of other states) four years ago? Why give the criminals who rigged those elections even more scope for their mischief?
GIVE UP on salvation by computer or by federalization of elections. All that needs to be done is to restore paper ballots and to ENFORCE existing voting rights laws as Congress intended.
Several states, with honest Democratic Secretaries of State, run clean and fair and accurate elections. If Democrats take control of both houses of Congress, they should consult those successful state officers for suggestions on any necessary reforms.
One smokescreen argument sometimes trotted out on behalf of computerized voting is that it somehow is less discriminatory towards certain classes of disabled voters. I do not suppose that any voter, no matter what his or her disability may be, would prefer a method of election that cannot be verified and CAN be hacked, instead of an honest and fair election where they can be sure that their vote is in fact going to be counted the way they cast it.
If we don't get leadership from the Democrats on this issue, then we all will owe Ralph Nader an apology, won't we?
November 2, 2008 11:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
I disagree. I believe that voting for ANY federal office (President, Senator, Representative) should occur in a STANDARD way throughout every state. If the states want to hold their state and local elections differently, fine, its within their sovereign rights to do so. In this, I believe that voter registration needs to be automatic. If a person has a US birth certificate or a valid green card, they should automatically be registered to vote. Period. After all, these are the only two criteria for citizenship, right?
I also disagree with not using computers at all. EVERY secure system has backup and redundancy built in. I do not believe that all of these problems with voting machines are unintentional. The technology exists to have a secure and valid computer supported national voting system.
I do agree that the electoral college needs to be abolished. One person, one vote. The emphasis on this state or that state is archaic and outdated. It places far too much emphasis on unimportant constituencies. I also think that the lage between election and inauguration is a relic of the past. Inauguration should occur within 10 days of the election. This would allow for any possible recounts or challenges and also provide planning time for the inauguration activities. The transition activities are already going on now (GWB got it right for once!)
Basically, the voting infrastructure needs to be modernized along with the physical infrastructure.
November 3, 2008 6:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
If a person has a US birth certificate or a valid green card, they should automatically be registered to vote. Period. After all, these are the only two criteria for citizenship, right?
I WISH, but wrong. A green card is evidence of legal residence. Citizenship requires a test- now of one hundred civics questions, I believe- an interview and probably a background check. What else, proficiency on some level in English?
November 3, 2008 11:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
The real issue is all about trust in the system of voting. The problem that enters the picture is people like McCain spouting off about Acorn and suggesting that there is an effort at major corruption where there is no substantive argument or evidence supporting the allegation.
This implies that a candidate for public office is willing to lie to the American public in an attempt to influence the election. I sincerely believe this undermines the trust of the American people and is exactly the intent.
Voters need to recognize this and make a real effort to sort these issues out and be informed and then make the logical and appropriate decision when they cast their ballot. I'm all for free specch. However, that does not entitle a person seeking office to knowingly lie to the American people. Allowing such conduct gives the green light to elected officials to do the same while in office. Bush lied about Iraq and look what that has cost us. Voters need to be 100% intolerant of this. The harm that comes from it is undeniable. Personally, my trust in our government is in the toilet and I don't think I will ever trust a government official again for the remainder of my life. And that goes for both parties. Neither have met their obligations to this country for eight years. No matter what voting scheme we have I don't trust government. All candidates under the current system of campaign finance who say it is free of corruption are liars right from the get go. You just cannot say that when finance and big business funnel hundreds of millions of dollars into campaigns and lobbying efforts.
November 3, 2008 12:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Empire
The Duma and electoral system
elected by an exceedingly complicated process. The membership was
manipulated
as to secure an overwhelming majority of the wealthy (especially the landed classes)
and also for the representatives of the Russian peoples at the expense of the subject nations.
The members of the Duma were chosen by electoral colleges and these, in their turn, were elected in assemblies of the three classes: landed proprietors, citizens and peasants.
In these assemblies the wealthiest proprietors sat in person
while the lesser proprietors were represented by delegates.
Since the majority consisted of conservative elements (the landowners and urban delegates), the
progressives had little chance of representation
at all save for the curious provision that one member at least in each government was to be chosen from each of the five classes represented in the college
November 3, 2008 4:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
The problem with shifting from electoral votes to a more democratic simple plurality count is that the change would require a Constitutional Amendment, and states with smaller populations would lose their advantage under the present system if it were changed. A primary reason that the Republicans are presently opposed to the idea is that smaller population states tend to break their way in Presidential elections. If this were reversed, both Republicans and Democrats would reverse their posturing.
This isn't really about states' rights or about democracy; it's about political parties attempting to leverage the system for partisan purposes.
November 3, 2008 8:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
Pseudo,
I agree, and I think the reason for the Electoral College was that it keeps the majority from abusing the minority, and this is why we're a Republic, a Representative Democracy, and not a pure Democracy.
I do think election day should be a day that people have off work, either Saturday or National Holiday. Maybe making Saturday AND Sunday election day.
On another note; I can't understand the long lines
and hours waiting in order to vote. Why does this happen?
November 3, 2008 8:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
Count me among those who favor making Election Day a national holiday.
Regarding the popular vote versus electoral college debate: instead of doing away with the electoral college, why not do away with the states' "winner-take-all" electoral voting system? (I realize this would be incredibly difficult, since that decision is ultimately left to each state).
November 3, 2008 9:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
While I agree that ABC should have carried Obama's infomercial, why should they have been required to do it? Seems like they should be free to make programming decisions and, hey, some people want to watch something other than a long campaign commercial -- don't they deserve a choice?
November 3, 2008 10:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
Destor,
I agree, what they broadcast is their decision.
A reminder, Disney owned ABC was the only Network to air that 6 hour anti-Clinton movie which blamed Clinton for 9/11.
from LA Times:
"In 2003, supporters of President Reagan were incensed by a CBS movie that fictionalized scenes and put words into Reagan’s mouth. CBS yanked “The Reagans” before its airdate and moved it to a much-less-watched sister network, the pay cable outlet Showtime.
Indeed, many conservatives have complained that Democrats have a selective memory. They point out that Democrats seemed unconcerned about Michael Moore’s 2004 documentary “Fahrenheit 9/11,” which pilloried the Bush administration for its response to the terrorist attacks. (Then-Disney Chief Executive Michael Eisner, saying he wanted the company to avoid political controversy, declined to release that film; it obtained another distributor.)"
November 3, 2008 11:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
To give you a hand in predicting the presidential winner and his margin of victory, try these:
http://www.thedailypage.com/daily/article.php?article=24082
http://www.thedailypage.com/daily/article.php?article=24137
Remember that the down ticket candidates often surf in the wake of a winning ticket leader.
November 3, 2008 12:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'd like an online voting system as an audit -- you vote once in-person and again online -- if discrepancies exist anywhere in either system those discrepancies get investigated.
p.s. I don't care for the electoral system either.
November 3, 2008 1:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
But this was the problem Hillary Clinton was pointing to that her Popular Vote Margins were much smaller than the Electoral Votes would suggest. If a major party would step and offer something new then it would be worth inspecting that as model for the country as whole.
November 3, 2008 3:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is a completely insane set of propositions. Why on earth should the FCC require NBC to carry a paid political ad? Should they also require all the networks to carry a McCain ad at a price he can afford?
Why on earth do we need fast vote counting? Is it some national tragedy if it takes 8 or 24 hours to count the votes instead of 1 hour? It doesn't matter, except to the media.
Why should the Feds fund only the states that "need" the money? For all the money we've wasted the last 8 years, it has become quite clear that technology is not the solution to voting problems. Laziness is the cause of the problems, because we are too lazy and cheap to count votes one-by-one. Instead, folks like yourself want to sprinkle magic technology dust on the problem and have it go away. It won't.
Why should there be nationwide online registration? Why must the government accumulate a massive database on every voter in the country? This might be the daftest proposal of the bunch, but it's so hard to choose. Honestly, I am stunned to read such malarkey from the former head of the FCC. I am embarrassed as a Democrat, and now I understand a little better why Republicans believe that there is a Democratic party conspiracy to enforce government mandated "fairness" on every communications medium.
Sad.
November 3, 2008 4:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
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March 2, 2011 12:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
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April 29, 2011 8:30 AM | Reply | Permalink