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No Big Change

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Greg Mitchell says that a big Obama win will bring a marked shift to the left. That is common sense. But there will be no sea change in US foreign policy. Obama's advisers and words indicate that he is a typical liberal internationalist, one who agrees with Madeline Albright and Robert Kagan that ours is an indispensable nation. (I think what Charles De Gaulle said about indispensable men applies to nations). What we're probably in for is a kinder, gentler hegemony, as Andrew Bacevich points out.

Obama has said nice things about realists like George Kennan. That is cause for hope. But Kennan would not agree with Obama's claim that counterterrorism requires ending "hopelessness" around the world -- a plan likely to go about as well as George Bush's effort to end evil. I'm positive that Kennan would not agree with Obama about the need to extend NATO's defense guarantees to Georgia and Ukraine. Kennan would reject Obama's claim that US interests are at stake in Sudan's civil war.

Obama, in other words, is not going to depart from the bipartisan US foreign policy consensus that says that US interests require that we manage world affairs. He is not going to make our military budget a "defense" budget in the true sense of that adjective. Which is why his administration is unlikely to take up Barney Frank's call to cut the military budget by 25%. As I wrote earlier in this week, you don't get there by cutting the procurement budget, as Frank suggested. You need to cut force structure. That requires cutting commitments; doing less.

I'm glad to see that Naomi Wolf shares the Cato Institute's long-standing concern about the slow death of Posse Comitatus. The danger, however, is not a coup or overt suppression of liberty. Our military's commitment to civilian rule prevents these outcomes, even if people like John Yoo espouse a constitutional theory that says the President can do virtually anything during a war. The danger, instead, is a creeping authoritarian ethos that hands more and more tasks to the military.

I recently attended a luncheon here in Washington with General Victor Renuart, the head of Northern Command. He commands the troops that Naomi mentioned. Reunart ran through Northcom's activities -- stopping drug runners and refugees, protecting computer networks from hackers, helping clean up after storms, and more. No one there, other than me, expressed any concern about whether these were appropriate tasks for the military, let alone the federal government. No one questioned whether Northcom should even exist.


5 Comments

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You mean Naomi Wolf (not Naomi Klein).

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Obama's words during the campaign have been overly militaristic. But he does have a lot of outs.

Expanding Nato to the Ukraine and Georgia is not going to happen unless Germany and France agree. I think this will not happen.

If Karsai pursues peace with the Taliban and they negotiate a deal the US will not have much choice but to accept. That will end the war there.

He is committed to negotiating with Iran. Once that dynamic begins he can end that crisis point.

Getting out of Iraq will be no problem given that the current Iraqi government is committed to Obama's stated plan. Complete withdrawal there, no US bases either.

Now his war talk against Pakistan could create some real problems, but let us hope that was just muscular campaign rhetoric that he can abandon.

I have faith that he will do the right thing in these situations and things will work out. In any case his will be an administration that will at least listen to us.

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syvanen says;


If Karsai pursues peace with the Taliban and they negotiate a deal the US will not have much choice but to accept. That will end the war there.

That may be the only way we can get out. Since we ousted the Taliban we now can't allow them to come back, so your comment may be the only way out for us.

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I've come to realize that I have no idea what right and left mean anymore. It might be a good idea to stop using these terms and others like them and to be explicit about the actual policy differences like Ben did in the rest of the article.

If there is a general term to apply to the policy differences articulated in the campaigns, it might be authoritarian versus ideological driven. Our political system has drifted into a form of majoritarianism and a "winner takes all" attitude. This leaves us in crisis mode and reinforces the "strong leader" approach, charismatic or dictatorial. I don't think we have a solution to this yet. The real pressure needs to come from ground level and it needs to be applied at all levels

I hope many of the young people who got involved, learned how to organize and found that they liked the experience continue to be involved and to exercise their right to challenge those they have supported. Right now I think we are looking at no big change although I will be glad to have the neocons out of the government and I do think that this election has historic proportions. Think of it as just the beginning. It is going to take a consistent effort to really change the status quo.

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Bacevich's latest post to TomDispatch is very much worth a see and far more cogent than what he says here at TPM. One strong exception though: the last two senteces of his final paragraph seem to indicate a turn into delusion, in spite of the basic implications raised in his thesis.

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