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Antidote to Euphoria: Newsweek on "Why McCain Won"

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Newsweek columnist Jonathan Alter and I are on the same wave length. He writes in this week's Newsweek that Obama could still lose and, if he does, the only reason will be racism.

I totally agree with that. The only difference between Alter and me is that he is sure Obama will win and I will believe that after the votes come in, and not a minute before. Having grown up in small cities where racism was (and is?) rampant, it is hard for me to believe that these white voters I know all too well will vote for a black guy no matter what they say.

On the other hand, why would they lie? The racists I grew up amongst were not, in any way, ashamed of their racism.

Anyway, Alter is worth a read simply because taking anything for granted is just plain dumb and, on the roster of Presidents, the name Thomas E. Dewey is nowhere to be found.

PS Maybe I'm just nervous because I like Obama a good deal more than every other nominee of my lifetime* put together and multiplied by ten and I'm superstitious.

*Except for McGovern, and he never had a chance.


PS Checked on the Palin Lithuania story. It's a widely circulated fake.


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23 Comments

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MJ,

considering the circumstances, a black guy running, Republican ability to steal elections, your caution is justified.

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I'll have to put you on my "do not read list" along with my cable news "do not watch list" if you continue in this vein, MJ. You're scaring me.

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Please, MJ, give me a break. The thought of John McCain winning makes me physically ill. There are other people out here like me. Consider our health, for shit sake.

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Label me more pragmatic:

This is one of the few elections seasons where every voter -- at least those identified as Democrats -- will have had the opportunity to vote twice, once in the state primary and once in the general election. Those voters so inclined to vote against Obama had their chance and could have voted him out already.

So, why lie? No reason. They can vote against Obama and are free to say why for whatever reason they want.

But my thought is that if all of those hidden "racist voters" were really voting their intentions, they would have done so in the summer and not waited until now to suddenly vote their fears.

I'm with Jonathan Alter, at this late date I doubt there is a huge hidden racist, Bradley-efffect waiting to happen.

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She is not Jewish - debunked at WikiAnswers
http://wiki.answers.com/Q/Is_Sarah_Palin_Jewish

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I prefer that she be Lithuanian Jewish, so go rain on someone else's parade.

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I don't believe there's a so-called Bradley effect.
I think people who won't vote for Obama because he's African American are relaxed about saying they won't vote for him.

I think if McCain wins it will be because of Republican voter suppression - as witness all those people in NC who thought they'd voted for Obama but hadn't; and young people didn't come out in the numbers needed. I also think Obama will have lost a lot of votes because of his `spreading the wealth` around gaffe.

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The "Sarah Palin is really Jewish" sounds like the same sort of hoax as the anti-Obama lying smear campaign. Completely phony and made-up, with the explicit goal being to generate chain emails to sway some stupid voters. Call it an anti-smear. But still (probably) a deliberate lie.

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Palin Jewish heritage - if it's true - is completely irrelevant. I'm hard pressed to think of anything less relevant - except maybe what her favorite color is.

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I suppose you read this article from Salon:

Bill Greener: Why Obama has to stay above 50 percent - Salon
Abstract: I think John McCain really does have a decent shot at winning, and that's not just because I'm a longtime Republican political operative. Despite what the polls seem to be saying, a closer look at the numbers shows that a Democratic victory is not a foregone conclusion. Why? Because if history is any guide, Barack Obama, as an African-American candidate for political office, needs to be polling consistently above 50 percent to win. And in crucial battleground states, he isn't.(...) There's an old rule in politics that an incumbent candidate is always in danger when he dips under 50 percent, even if he is leading his opponent in the polls. It's all about the undecideds. In a race with an incumbent candidate and a challenger, on Election Day the undecideds tend to break for the challenger, at rates as high as 4 to 1. If an incumbent is polling at, say, 47 to 45 percent with 8 percent undecided, there's a good chance he's going to wind up losing 49 to 51. As it's sometimes expressed, if you're an incumbent, what you see is what you get. The same pattern seems to be true for African-American candidates in much of the country. If you're a black candidate running against a white candidate, what you see is what you get. And it doesn't matter whether you're an incumbent or a challenger. If you're not polling above 50 percent, you should be worried. As of this writing, Barack Obama is not polling consistently above 50 percent in a number of electoral-vote-rich swing states, including Ohio and Florida. He should be worried.

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Hello David:

Thanks for linking that Salon opinion article by Bill Greener.

I fully understand that your position is that you don't have a dog in this fight. But to bring some light upon the link and the quote from Salon that you've provided I graciously ask of you to take the time to go over the following information.

Now ... to put that article in context to the current situation (up to the current day) of the author's position that Obama "...needs to be polling consistently above 50 percent to win..." scenario, the following information is provided.

Here are four very important "previous 2004 Bush red-states" that have been for some time at or over the 50 percent threshold for Obama.

Colorado [9 EV (likely Dem)]: Obama has been polling 50 percent or better since 10/9 to current in 7 separate state polls.

Iowa [7 EV (safe Dem)]: Obama has been polling 50 percent or better since 9/01 to current in 7 separate state polls.

New Mexico [5 EV (safe Dem)]: Obama has been polling 50 percent or better since 9/15 to current in 6 separate state polls.

Virginia [13 EV (safe Dem)]: Obama has been polling 50 percent or better since 10/4 to current in 16 separate state polls.

Combine those states (34 EV) that were Bush red-states in 2004 with all the Kerry blue-states (244 EV) that are currently polling above 50 percent for Obama and the electoral vote count is at 278-260.

Also, this is not to say that Florida (leans Dem), Missouri (toss up), Nevada (leans Dem), North Carolina (leans Dem) Ohio (likely Dem) aren't viably in play for Obama, but the math currently shows that Obama does not necessarily need these particular states currently to win the electoral-college vote.

For a very thorough listing of all states and the related polling of which I speak please go to Nate Silver's site at 538.com and on the right side of the site scroll down to the 'State by State Poll Detail' for a verification of the 50 percent and over.

Also: make sure you read the following that Nate specifically wrote about Bill Greener's article. Nate outlines in great detail three (3) "problems" with Mr. Greener's position/scenario:

Bradley Effect? Or Elephant Effect?

That alone is really worth the read for it's detail to specifics.

Thanks again for posting Bill Greener's opinion piece.

~OGD~

** Infrequent Cafe contributor since June 2005 **

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Oops . . .

The above link was inoperable due to typing with web-feet.

Here's the corrected link:

Bradley Effect? Or Elephant Effect?

(I must remind myself to check the links upon previewing... for with this lastest addition of TPM I have no idea if the comments can some way be edited.)

~OGD~

** Infrequent Cafe contributor since June 2005 **

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Obama seems a sure winner but he needs to close the deal. Is he growing stronger as we near the election or more vulnerable?

Are Americans concerned about one party control when the Congressional approval ratings are so low?

Doesn't look like it but we can't trust the Media and I am not certain we can trust the ostensible poll results on Nov 5.

Will litigation mean we swear in the next President in the Summer of '09?

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Uhhhh . . .

Is he growing stronger as we near the election or more vulnerable?

I give up. Who? Why don't you go find out for us?

Are Americans concerned about one party control when the Congressional approval ratings are so low?

I haven't had time to speak to every American who is concerned with this conundrum. You wanna call 'em for us?

Doesn't look like it but we can't trust the Media and I am not certain we can trust the ostensible poll results on Nov 5.

Oh well, maybe a nice piece of warm pie will calm your distrust.

Will litigation mean we swear in the next President in the Summer of '09?

Who's gonna win the next Kentucky Derby?

Have a nice day.

~OGD~

*Shaking my head at the inanities found here at the Cafe since June 2005*

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short answer: even if mccain wins EVERY state where obama isn't polling over the 50% 'threshold', it still doesn't add up to a mccain victory.

greener spends a lot of time blathering about pseudo-statistical analysis but doesn't bother doing the arithmetic.

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I'd be a little concerned about Greener's reasoning, as he's applying a formula that's worked to explain races in which there's an incumbent to this one, where there isn't. He doesn't supply details about the races where he says the same formula applies in races where there's a black candidate, but isn't this election different anyway because of the problem with the economy?

At least, I hope that's why Greener's analysis is way off...

...isn't it?

Somebody tell me it's way off...

please...

(I don't know how I'm going to survive the emotional rollercoaster of the next week.)

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OOoh, it's getting scary! Like some political Poe!

Happy Halloween!

Quoth the Maverick...

http://thetruthburns.wordpress.com/2008/10/28/quoth-the-maverick/

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I won't be truly confident until the evening of January 20, 2009. But it was a little chilly in hell last week. My born New York Jew/former New Orleans slumlord/current South Florida country club tennis playing father-in-law who unabashedly ogles younger, attractive women early voted for Obama last week.

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I don't buy anything about her ancestry, not that it matters, because the info claims that Jews were required to leave Lithuania because of WW I? Not true, and I am 50% Litvak (Lithuanian Jewish).

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PS: referring people to a site where they can't read the Yiddish or Russian is very clever.

Likewise the foolish notion that she's named "Sarah" because of Jewish ancestry. Christians commonly use Biblical first names.

And here's her family tree from a genealogical web site:

http://freepages.genealogy.rootsweb.ancestry.com/~battle/palin.htm

Finally, if she were Jewish (technically), wouldn't we have heard about it by now?

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And one more thing: if the writing is Cyrillic it's Russian, not Lithuanian. Get your alphabets straight! :-)

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Well, you've joined the ranks of Ed Rendell and the like who predicted that there was no way for Obama to win in Pennsylvania. We're not done working yet but the polls seem to contradict that conclusion.

So now that we know the conclusion about racism that you will draw if Obama loses, my question is what conclusion will you draw if he wins?

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Re: it is hard for me to believe that these white voters I know all too well will vote for a black guy no matter what they say.

My take on this: a lot of whites with race issues will nevertheless vote for Obama by means of a simple mental trick: they will subconsciously reclassify him as white (or at least non-Black). This is easy to do because Obama does not fit the racist stereotypes of a Black man at all: he's well-educated, cerebral, speaks in standard English, dresses in modest suits. Not to mention he's half-white, and his Black ancestry is pure African, not African-American (foreign Blacks are often given the benefit of the doubt by American racists because they are culturally not African-American). On top of this it will be in their own best economic interests to vote for him, and in the future they will be ale to deny their racist leanings by forever claiming "But I voted for Obama!".

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