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RESCUE-IN-REVIEW: Economic Crisis Mitigation Efforts to Date

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Having trouble staying on top of the various programs and initiatives the federal government has embarked on to combat the economic crisis? You are not alone. The plans, an evolving ad hoc amalgam comprising an alphabet soup are almost impossible even for close observers to sort out. Here is a review of major efforts undertaken to date.

The first signs of trouble in the economy appeared in late 2007 and early 2008, when home prices across the country began falling steadily for the first time in memory and an alarming number of foreclosures, stemming from the failure of a rash of subprime mortgages, were recorded. Congress responded during the spring with the $160 billion Economic Stimulus Act of 2008. Roughly $110 billion of this amount went to individuals and families in the form of tax rebates; the rest came in the form of tax cuts, mostly for business, which were needed to avoid a veto by President Bush. The package might have contributed marginally to the surprising performance of the economy in the second quarter of this year, when GDP increased from one to three percent.

But the housing sector continued to experience contractions, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac saw steep drops in stock value, and by summer, the rate of new foreclosures surpassed 10,000 a week. In July, Congress established a Federal Home Financing Administration to implement a $300 billion loan guarantee program backstopping mortgage refinancing. Three months later, the housing market remains in grave condition: foreclosures have now reached 10,000 a day, according to Senate Banking Committee Chair Christopher Dodd (D-CT).

In mid-September, the housing market crisis jumped the fence into the financial sector - particularly credit markets - and began seeping into the broader economy. On Sept. 14, the U.S. government announced an $85 billion bailout of insurance giant American International Group. But it stood by the very next day when 151-year-old investment bank Lehman Brothers declared bankruptcy - the biggest in American history. Within days, credit markets - including everything from interbank lending to commercial paper to car loans - seized up, suddenly imperiling business' ability to invest in equipment and to meet payroll, posing grave threats to the macroeconomy.

The Treasury Department went into its own crisis mode and decided to move from a series of ad hoc reactions to a systemic rescue strategy. On Sept. 28, Secretary Paulson asked Congress for $700 billion to purchase distressed assets from banks in an effort to restore liquidity to the nation's credit markets. The House, seeing the price tag and lack of taxpayer protections, rejected the proposal the next day in a stunning 228-205 vote. The world's capital market exchanges plunged on the news, and the Dow suffered its biggest one-day point loss ever. Congress then added protections and some tax cut sweeteners and passed the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) three days later.

As the name suggests, TARP was designed to relieve banks of their distressed assets - especially subprime and other mortgage-backed securities. But when it became clear that TARP was having no appreciable affect on credit markets, and British Prime Minister Gordon Brown announced a wholesale nationalization of England's second-largest bank, the policy focus in the U.S. started centering squarely on systemic credit problems.

Finally, last week, Paulson announced a shift in tactics and announced a new Treasury plan to buy equity stakes in nine major American banks - and potentially thousands of smaller banks - using the first $250 billion dollars allotted under TARP. He made a deal the nine banks couldn't refuse, and Treasury now has purchased $125 billion worth of one-to-three percent equity interests in the banks' assets, receiving warrants and exacting executive compensation and dividend payment restrictions from them in the bargain.

The Federal Reserve Bank (the Fed) has also been active in efforts to unclog the credit markets. Right after Congress rejected the Paulson plan, taking no chances on congressional inaction, the Fed began to infuse the $620 billion made available to banks to date through currency "swap" arrangements. This week, at the direction of chair Ben Bernanke, the Fed has announced that, in addition to the attempts to resuscitate the credit markets through capital infusions to banks, it would provide another $600 billion to businesses, consumers, and households directly affected by the credit crunch. This Money Market Investor Funding Facility will bolster money-market mutual funds - consumer investment funds - by financing their purchase of commercial paper and certificates of deposit in an effort to enable people to buy cars and get student loans and for companies to meet payroll and avoid layoffs.

When Congress returns for a post-election lame-duck session next month, it will almost certainly take up and adopt a second stimulus package. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) has spoken of a $300 billion package, with money going to unemployment insurance, food stamps, and infrastructure projects rather than tax cuts. A Bush veto is no longer a threat, unless he wants to be stamped forever as Hoover II. Many are also clamoring for additional assistance to homeowners at risk of mortgage default and foreclosure.

This is the principle set of measures undertaken to date by the federal government to mitigate the impact of what former Fed chair Alan Greenspan yesterday called a "once-in-a-century credit tsunami," though a more apt metaphor would not suggest the nation's economy is being flooded with credit.

To what extent are these measures working? This week, a benchmark borrowing rate among banks known as LIBOR dropped by the largest amount in nine months, an indication of growing confidence in the financial system. Local and state governments found buyers for bonds that had gathered dust for weeks. Banks and money market funds opened their coffers to corporate borrowers, reducing rates on short-term loans. Indeed, restoration of robust credit markets will probably take months, and the current consensus is that the impact on the real economy could send the unemployment rate up to 8-10 percent and keep the nation mired in recession into 2010. But importantly, as Paul Krugman, who received a Nobel Prize in Economics last week, told Charlie Rose yesterday, this set of rescue measures, "has taken a Depression off the table."


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. . . restoration of robust credit markets will probably take months . . . .

Wishful thinking.

Lenders will be looking for borrowers who don't need money of which there will be few. And businesses which don't see a growth in demand aren't likely to borrow to expand* their businesses.

* Don't confuse the acts of businesses rolling over outstanding (that is, existing debt) with "robust credit markets." Refinancing debt taken out in happier times is merely treading water.

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So the banks will get some liquidity. Problem is, they will take a look around, and ask themselves, where did all the borrowers go?

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"There is no dignity quite so impressive, and no one independence quite so important, as living within your means." Calvin Coolidge

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Further on Dorn76's point:

The financial decisions of early Boomers (d/o/b 1946-1955) over the next ten years will determine economic growth.

Pre-age 55 savings is, give or take a bit, equivalent to growth in home equity (that is, pay down of mortgage principal and house price gains). Post-age 55 savings is, give or take a bit, equivalent to reduced outgo (end of parental financial responsibilities).

When house and stock prices are rising, savings out of income can be deferred. But what will Boomers who've seen the equity in their homes and in their 401(k) portfolios seriously erode do?

Will Boomers keep borrowing? Will Echo Boomers watching their parents' angst and wondering about their own futures keep borrowing?

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Ellen is referencing some facts that everyone should start taking into account explicitly when they are thinking about economic policy and situations, specifically, demographics.

I would suggest taking it a bit further and putting exchange and funding mechanisms -- money, monetary and fiscal policy, securities, etc -- aside until you have a good grasp of the fundamental mix of economic activity that needs occur in the present and in the foreseeable future. You can do this by visiting the census bureau and getting current and projected population counts by age group and seeing how that changes over time. When all is said and done, those done with their education and of working age will be the population segment that is producing the goods and services, including raising children, that support the young, infirm and retired. Those population numbers drive changes in major segments of the economy, e.g., education, housing and medical costs.

If you do that exercise and think about what must be done, you can see what kind of investment, including specific education and training needs, need to take place on a year by year basis. Population phenomenon like the baby boom--or busts during some periods--create very prominent shifts in the mix of fundamental activities.

At this point you can start to think about funding mechanisms. I think that one problem you will see is that the ratio of the workforce to the population shifts. Retirees born during some periods are a rather small proportion while retired boomers will be a larger portion. There will be "booms" in construction in some periods and "booms" in medical services in others. These are not constant over time.

No funding mechanism can alter what is going on here and somehow ease some burden or take advantage of capacity that would be helpful at some point in the future. For example, you cannot put delivered medical services in a vault and dispense them at some point in the future. Even housing can't really be left vacant for long periods.

I don't think the boomers are going to be living by golf courses and taking long cruises. I suspect that we will learn that IRA's and 401(k)'s were a very bad idea or, at best, have a limited role, and that a mechanism like social security is extremely efficient and is adequate to the task. One major problem with the former approaches and any approach that is non-pooled is that no potential retiree knows how long they will live and then tries to save too much. That inflates asset prices. The other major problem, which we are seeing now, is that relying on financial markets to deliver the cash when it is needed is not advisable and, I think, a very inefficient way to get the money when and where it is needed. The cost cannot be avoided. The dollars will come from taxes or government borrowing and/or retirement savings.

The policy question needs to be decided on some other grounds than some favored ideological theory. It's time to stop treating ourselves like lab rats in some experiment designed to validate some economic ideology.

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Signs of trouble in the housing market surfaced before 2007. By 2004, the effect of federal cuts to states and corresponding cuts to cities had hit transitional urban neighborhoods, which also tended to have clusters of subprime and stated-income mortgages. Crime spiked and quality of life in those neighborhoods started to spiral down.

Then a strange phenomenon began, of people losing houses on which they had made no payments, or just a few payments, the first folks who found themselves unable to pay even their interest-only payments despite having qualified for a mortgage. (Some of these people were small time investors who had hoped to rent their properties out but discovered that the first signs of a shrinking economy made it hard to find renters in their now-troubled neighborhoods.)

In my view, that's when regulators should have stepped in.

Now I think the best thing to do would be to provide serious incentives for the remaining bubble homeowners, who are deep underwater, to hold onto their properties. Subsidizing their mortgage payments would be the most effective way to do this if neighborhood stabilization is the goal.

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You are such a piker, erica.

What are you going to do with people who are upside-down on their car loans? stressed out by credit card debt? unable to find jobs that pay enough to justify their student loans?

Let's have a little more generosity*, here!

* As Gordon Gekko, a generous man unconcerned about the deteriorating value of his asset backed securities, would say, "Debtor subsidies are good!"

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