Pollsters Are Mostly to Blame
I agree with Nancy Mathiowetz that the media rarely report follow-up questions that reveal how many voters could change their minds. She is right to note that the CBS News Poll story has occasionally focused on the size of the "swing voters" in the electorate - voters who either are undecided or who say they could change their candidate preferences before the election.
However, for the most part, pollsters do not themselves emphasize the swing voter population (much less the news media stories). Indeed, by forcing voters to make a decision, and then afterward asking them if they could change their minds (the standard approach pollsters use to measure voter intensity), pollsters go at the measurement of the undecided voter in a backhanded manner.
When pollsters release their results, the primary set of numbers they release are based on the forced-choice hypothetical vote choice question that discourages voters from admitting they make still be making up their minds. If you look at the trends of any pollsters, including CBS News, you'll not find a trend on the "undecided voter" or "swing voter" group.
Here's what SurveyUSA found in Pennsylvania (10/11-13/2008), when its president, Jay Leve, conducted an experiment using the standard vote choice question for one half the sample, and my version for the other:
Standard question: Obama 55% McCain 40% Other 4% Undecided 1%
Proposed question: Obama 49% McCain 37% Other 4% Undecided 11%
Instead of a 15-point lead in Pennsylvania with 1% of voters undecided, my version suggests Obama had a 12-point lead with 11% undecided.
I really don't believe that three weeks before the election, only 1% of voters were undecided. Do you?
"Proposed question: Obama 39% McCain 37% Other 4% Undecided 11%....my version suggests Obama had a 12-point lead with 11% undecided."
The only way I can reconcile these two statements is to change the "Obama 39%" to "Obama 49%".
Is this correct?
October 21, 2008 5:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, the first line of numbers add up to 100% but the second line adds up to 91%.
As for the parting question of the number of undecideds at this point in the race, 1% may be low but certainly 11% is pretty high. I would imagine that at least 95% of people have decided who they're voting for. Of course, they may tell the pollsters that they are undecided but anyway.
October 21, 2008 10:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Really here's another example of the only examples of "accountabilty and responsibility" of GOP's deeds. Blame the media, blame the pollsters, blame the rally's bigots, audiences, blame the "socialist nee Commies nee terrorist appeasers nee godless nee Democrats"
A sample of "blame:
A woman in a hot air balloon realized she was lost. She lowered her altitude and spotted a man in a boat below. She shouted to him, 'Excuse
me, can you help me? I promised a friend I would meet him an hour ago, but I don't know where I am.'
The man consulted his portable GPS and replied,'You're in a hot air balloon, approx 30 feet above a ground elevation of 2346 feet above sea level. You are at 31 degrees, 14.97 minutes north latitude and 100 degrees, 49.09 minutes west longitude.'
She rolled her eyes and said, 'You must be a Democrat.' 'I am,' replied the man. 'How did you know?'
'Well,' answered the balloonist, 'everything you told me is technically correct, but I have no idea what to do with your information, and I'm still lost. Frankly, you've not been much help to me.'
The man smiled and responded, 'You must be a Republican.' 'I am,' replied the balloonist. 'How did you know?'
Well,'said the man, 'you don't know where you are or where you are going. You've risen to where you are, due to a large quantity of hot air. You made a promise that you have no idea how to keep, and you expect me to solve your problem. You're in exactly the same position you were in before we met, but, somehow, now it's my fault.
October 21, 2008 5:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Three (now two) weeks out, I would be astonished to find anyone, let alone 1% of the electorate, who was undecided. If you don't know by now how you intende to vote, I am not sure you should be allowed out of your house unaccompanied, let alone allowed to vote.
October 22, 2008 3:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Madison believed that we should have separation of church and state throughout the land, federal and local. There was a fascinating moment during the congressional debate over what became the First Amendment. How could the beloved First Amendment be harmful to religion? Huntington feared that it would overturn or interfere with Connecticut’s approach, which was to have state-supported religion.
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March 4, 2011 8:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
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April 4, 2011 7:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
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April 29, 2011 9:32 AM | Reply | Permalink