New Poll: Jewish Vote for Obama Approaching 70% and Growing
This is interesting. The Jewish vote for the Democratic nominee is now within range of the traditional 70-80%.
That is not surprising. About 20% of Jews are Republicans (I'm proud that the number is so low), you add another 5% or so that won't vote for a black guy and that is pretty much that. Obama ends up with 70%-80% on election day.
The Jewish vote won't determine the election so the main significance of this poll is what it says about the rest of the country. No, 70% of non-Jews are not voting for Obama (that would be nice) but the trend is moving Obama's way. If it wasn't, the number of Jews still believing those lying e-mails would be higher.
And the issue of Israel is cutting Obama's way.
"The data, taken from a nationwide poll conducted in early September, indicates that Jews as a group are 30 percent more likely than other white, non-Hispanic voters to support Obama.
"Surprisingly, the poll found that gap widened to nearly 40% among Jews who rank Israel 'very high' as a factor in their choice of candidate...."
Nice. And the poll was taken BEFORE the crash.
Go Jews! I wish my fellow Roman Catholics were voting 70% for Obama. If so, this race would be over.
October 20, 2008 3:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Non-Republican Jewish voters were never going to back that schmuck McCain!
October 20, 2008 3:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is it hard to convert?
My fellow Christians are embarrassing me these days.
October 20, 2008 4:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
This too shall pass. The Christianists will wither away, but Christianity won't. Never give up.
October 20, 2008 7:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
We've got a lot of embarrassing people here, too!
October 21, 2008 1:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
And just where is YBD when you need to lower the wattage of the debate?
October 21, 2008 9:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
Jews are traditionally Democrats. I guess intermarriage has reduced the percentage who vote for Democrats--from 88% in the late 1970s. We used to be second only to African Americans in our preference for Democrats, and we remain Democrats at much higher incomes than other white Americans.
Now if we could just get it together to help settle the Palestinian issue fairly.
October 20, 2008 4:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
As my (Jewish) friend likes to say: Jews may live like WASPS but they vote like Puerto Ricans. It's a beautiful thing.
October 20, 2008 4:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
JTA article better on what the poll is about:
The poll of 1,596 Jews was taken by Synovate shortly after the Republican Party convention and before all four debates and the stock market decline.
[so it polled at the nadir of Obama support, peak of McCain support, generally. So numbers even likely more in favor of Obama by now]
It found Jews favoring Obama over McCain by a 51-25 percent margin, with 24 percent undecided -- which the authors reconfigured to a 67-33 margin for Obama after throwing out the undecided voters and counting only those who had made a decision. A similar process found 37 percent of non-Jewish whites backing the Democrat.
[We Jews still are strongest White group for Dems. Repugs smears have not changed that]
The report finds that such a discrepancy could not be explained by differences in education or income, or by their stands on issues. For example, the study found that Jews are about as equally concerned with social welfare issues -- health care, education and poverty -- as non-Jewish whites and Hispanics and less concerned than blacks.
Instead, the report states support for Obama can best be explained by Jews’ “historic, passionate, and high significant commitment to the Democratic Party and the liberal camp in America" -
October 20, 2008 5:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
oops... here is link for JTA article:
http://www.jta.org/cgi-bin/iowa/breaking/110827.html
October 20, 2008 5:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
I remain shocked that so many Jewish people are and have been so blinded by their fears about Israel that they would ever have believed the obvious and transparent lies that have been spread about Obama and other Democrats as well if the truth be told). My expectations for the Jewis people are higher than for practically any other identifiable group due to their history. It's nice to know so many are coming "home" to the Democratic candidate but it is still worrisome in the extreme that this traditionaly progressive and stalwart Democratic constituency has grown so suspicious and apparently paranoid of someone who is "different." The irony is incredible. Perhaps they will return to the historic norm soon. I hope so.
October 20, 2008 6:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
This bumper sticker begins a conversation on my views of the Republiklan party.
http://www.zazzle.com/most_americans_have_had_enough_bumpersticker-128109448287825242
I'm Jewish and my best friend, a Jew as well but she will vote for McCAIN.
Please answer this political opinion poll at http://poll.democratz.org
October 20, 2008 6:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm pleased at what Mr. Rosenberg has reported and hope that support among American Jews for Senators Obama and Biden remains at least at that level through November 4. But, Mr. Rosenberg and those who like his postings should ponder what the level of support among Jewish voters for the Democratic ticket would be if Senator Obama had espoused the views of Mr. Rosenberg and his friends --that the reason there is no peace is because of Israeli intransegience, not Hamas terror, and that peace requires unilateral Israeli territorial concessions whether or not there is a Palestinian government able to enforce a peace treaty.
Thank G-d Senator Obama pays no attention to Mr. Rosenberg, Bernard Avashai, Daniel Levy and all the others naive peaceniks who spout mindless nonsense, but relies instead on knowledgeable Mideast experts like former Ambassador Dennis Ross and, hopefully soon, Vice President Biden--one of Israel's strongest Congressional supporters--, for advice on I-P issues.
October 20, 2008 10:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
AIPACmember, I had heard you emigrated. Glad you'll be enjoying our fair country through the election. After that, I'm glad you'll be exercising your rights under the law of return.
October 21, 2008 9:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
AIPAC members comments represent the unsustainable reality of today. Hence, the peace process because that reality stinks.
MJ, you are wasting your time responding to this dead-ender.
October 21, 2008 9:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
You are right. I won't anymore. The fact that his chosen TPM name is Aipac member pretty much tells you everything you need to know about him.
October 21, 2008 10:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
As Mr. Rosenberg has not responded to the substance of my point--because he has no answer--and simply proclaims he will no longer respond to me, I will not ask him to take note of my actual screen name which is not "aipacmember", but the more generic "apacmember", as I belong to a number of political action committees, including the National Jewish Democratic Council.
The real "dead-enders", mythbuster, are those who think that lasting peace will come if Israel just hands over chunks of the West Bank to a gutless, corrupt and inherently unstable bunch of incopetents led by Abbas. I and millions of other American Jews are confident that Barack Obama understands that reality--which is why I have contributed more to his campaign than proabably anyone else on this board.
October 21, 2008 10:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
No, sir. The "dead-enders" are those who believe that millions of Palestinians can be ruled by Israelis forever in an ever-shrinking Bantustan.
The net result of that thinking has been the rise of Hamas and Islamic Jihad.
And every time a Palestinian farmer is beaten when he tries to pick olives, Hamas says "I told you so."
Those of us that want a successful Israel and a successful Palestine don't have time for your thinking. It's a cul-de-sac.
October 21, 2008 3:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
And every time Hamas recruits, trains, and glorifies murderers of Israelis, Bibi and the Likud says "I told you so".
When you and the jerks who think like you figure out how to create a Palestinian Authority that will force Hamas to honor a peace treaty, call President Obama and Ambassador Ross.
October 22, 2008 10:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
You're delusional. Abbas has already done everything and gotten nothing. Abbas is now a poster child for the futility of Arab "moderation." That is what feeds Hamas.
October 22, 2008 11:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
YOUSE JEWS ARE LIBRULS!
October 21, 2008 10:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm glad Jews are warming up to Obama now. He had a bumpy start in the beginning. http://inthematrix.wordpress.com/
October 21, 2008 12:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
I find this interesting as Wolfowitz was the chief Architect of the Iraq war (later to be the disgraced head of the world bank) And it was AIPAC and AIPACS massive lobby by a large margin who were backing the Publicans in moving forward Israel's use of American money and blood to remove their rivals/enemies in the in the middle east...Wolfowitz and his little ilk friend Libbey that is...both huge Likud/ AIPAC supporters.
Looks like there is hope for humanity-sanity after all.....
Good to hear…..
October 21, 2008 3:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
If we weren't "defending Israel", people might think that we were trying to set up imperial control of the Middle East. Defending Israel serves the purpose of justifying and sustaining a much larger agenda. Without Israel, who would we be "defending" in the ME: The Saudi Royal Family? Ouch. That doesn't sound like a Freedom Agenda.
October 21, 2008 9:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
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October 21, 2008 10:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think that noting that Jews vote for the Democratic Party (all the way up and down the ticket) in numbers bested only by African Americans is not news to anyone who follows politics even in the most casual way.
The question is how does Obama square up against other Democrats, both nominees for president and those up and down the ticket this year -- a BANNER year for the Democratic Party. The latter are the real standards, and I would like to see some concrete statistics on what percent (what those at Democratic Underground routinely call) the Repukes got. (After all, leading GOP figures, including presidents and party appointees have been routinely referring to the "Democrat" Party and rarely been called on it, including by Democrats, for decades now). It is my impression that in the presidential elections of 88,92,96,00,and 04, with a slightly higher proportion in 00 when Joe Lieberman was on the ticket, the Republican national nominee rarely comes even CLOSE to being as HIGH as 20% of the national vote among Jews (though definitions of 'Jew' vary widely, often producing widely varying results). Why should any putz from the DLC be able to match, let alone exceed, the proportion that Obama gets, and in an election year like this when the Democrat is likely to get a higher percentage than in any election since 1964? Jews have not only tended to be Democrats, but have a long tradition of supporting social justice, and the more progressive wing of the Democratic Party -- this is itself completely aside from any (gulp) RADICAL traditions.
Perhaps there is a bit of pride (or what if you are a Jew is more apt to be considered
"chauvinism") at work here, but as a Jew I am APPALLED that a ticket like McCain/Palin could get 20% of the national 'Jewish vote', let alone 25% or more. As for concern about Israel, I have sent to my mother (age over 80), a copy of the portion of the VP debate where Palin leaves no doubt that she has no CLUE as to what the policies of the W Bush Administration towards Israel have been. You would rather entrust the future of peace in the Middle East to John McCain and Sarah Palin than to Barack Obama and Joe Biden?
You don't have to have the position(s) ( vaguely close to that of Noam Chomsky) on Israel that I have to ask the question about that:
WTF??????
October 21, 2008 3:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
We are defending the Saudis. They are our own and Israel's greatest asset/proxy in the ME.
As for aipacmember, I enjoy his posts as he provides great insights on what he and his fellow Israel Firsters consider important in influencing/shaping American foriegn policy at the highest levels of our government. While some will just dismiss his commentary, there's lots of truth in what he says about certain people that the "Dem" IFers champion as integral parts of an Obama administration, for instance.
In other words, aipacmember provides invaluable information re the Lobby's agenda/priorities and how it manifests within their targeted institutions be they votes on issues having anything remotely to do with Israel or who is allowed to sit on the National Security Council.
His comments about Joe Biden, while somewhat boastfully hyperbolic, are in a general sense, accurate. Biden has declared himself to be a Zionist and during his debate with Missy Sarah said; "Gwen, no one in the United States Senate has been a better friend to Israel than Joe Biden. I would have never, ever joined this ticket were I not absolutely sure Barack Obama shared my passion". That statement is right in line with claims made by aipacmember about Biden.
Notice that aipacmember is constantly promoting Dennis Ross. Ross has served as an IFer mole in several administrations and during the primary was cautious in his neutrality by denying that he was one of Obama's "official" advisors. As soon as the results were in, he vaulted into prominence within the Obama entourage to provide liason services during Obama's recent visit in Israel.
It will be interesting to see whether or not Ross is suggested for a post that requires confirmation. Someone with balls could ask him if he will push Obama to free Jonathan Pollard if Bush doesn't pardon Pollard first.
It's all about access which is why it's critical that the voices of the IFers' GOP enemies such as Powell, Hagel and Rice are heard by Obama. The Lobby's "Dem" IFer operatives can't control their access to Obama as effectively as they can their vetted and approved "advisors" within the Obama campaign and future administration.
@ aipacmember. Your claim to have donated more $ to Obama than anyone else on this forum is kind of silly and in a strange way, highlites the importance of money to the political fortunes of prospective candidates for federal office. The success of the IFers' efforts at the local levels in vetting promising politicians is indeed impressive. I thought of you and yours when I read this comment in the LA Jewish Journal:
"The disrespect for the Chicago Jewish community is amazing. Barack is our candidate. We supported him before the black community came on board. Look at his staff. Look at his advisors. Get a clue. Barack is the Jewish candidate here. Biden is also a made man. McCain and Palin? Are you kidding?
Comment by Chicago Guy on 9/27/08 at 7:58 pm"
http://www.jewishjournal.com/jewschoose2008/item/can_mccain_fix_his_palin_problem_20080927/
While to all appearances it does look like Biden is indeed a "made man", I don't think that anyone can absolutely trust that Obama will stay "made" once in office. Especially if he has direct talks on ME issues with leaders like Sarkozy, Erdogan, Olmert and another IFer enemy, future Israeli Prime Minister Tzipi Livni.
October 21, 2008 4:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you, lally, for the complement. Please note my proper screen name is "apacmember".
I must take issue with your characterization of me as an Israel Firster. Israel and America have shared strategic interests and shared ideals, and I do not place Israel's interests over my own country's. Those interests are essentially identical, although, just as the U.S. and U.K. or Canada differ on tactics occasionally, so there will be respectful disagreements once in a while between the U.S. and Israel as to tactics. I have confidence that President Obama, Vice President Biden and Ambassador Ross will know how to resolve those disagreements constructively, never allowing infrequent differences to create a harmful wedge between two close allies.
I'm sorry you consider my statement of financial support for Sen. Obama's campaign to be silly. I made it to demonstate to Mr. Rosenberg's adherents that Barack Obama and Joe Biden are receiving support from hundreds of thousands of American Jewish Democrats precisely because I and they beleive that an Obama Administration will pay no attention on I-P issues to Messrs. Rosenberg, Levy, Avashai and the jerks who think like them.
October 22, 2008 10:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
Great post. All the pro-Israel talk is cheap though. America is a very pragmatic country. That is what AIPAC fears: when American and Israeli interests deviate, Israel always changes course. The problem is that everyone know this. The occupation would have ended long ago had American demanded it. We have not. We have never frozen aid. Until we do, Israel won't stop.
Will that be true in the future? Who knows? However the rise of China and a more assertive EU will lead to a change in the strategic calculus. Smart Israelis know this. That is why Olmert has spoken the previously unspeakable truth about the West Bank.
My prediction: If there is no Palestinian state within four years. There never will be. But their will be constant talk about a unitary state.
October 22, 2008 11:21 AM | Reply | Permalink