It's Not Over But...
Winning is out of the question for McCain now. He lost all three debates and,in the course of a few months, became something of a joke to most Americans. Pretty amazing for the American hero.
No matter what happens now, he goes down as one of those marginal figures in our political history who was discredited, lost, and disappeared.
On the stage it looked like a President and the Richard Dreyfus character, a gnarly device to make a President look even more Presidential. Even, God forbid, an act of terrorism could not elect McCain. In wartime, voters are not looking for a geezer to save the day.
The weird part is that it is remotely possible McCain can get himself into the White House. He can do it by massive fraud or a seething burst of racial discomfort undetectable to pollsters, perhaps even unfelt by the voters until they walk into the booths.
I'd flatout predict that Obama is going to win but I'm too superstitious. But I will say this. He has run the best campaign of any Democratic nominee since FDR. He has passed the first test of Presidential greatness and he hasn't been elected yet. He is a leader.
So long as they don't steal it.
The way they are harping about ACORN threatening the very FABRIC of Democracy is a tell.
It's not like they don't have any practice stealing elections--not ACORN--the Republicans.
As thieves go, they are simply without parallel. They have stolen all the tax revenue that will ever be collected from now till the seas boil over, and the only thing left for them to steal is the election.
October 16, 2008 8:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
c4,
its the arsonist calling the guy lighting a BBQ grille an arsonist.
October 17, 2008 8:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
well said, MJ.
Outcome aside, Obama's campaign has been extraordinary.
Slightly off topic, I don't buy into the notion that McCain and Palin would be ahead if it weren't for the economy.
A lot of the Republican "old guard", like Pat Buchanan, make this claim.
I think Palin, while initially an uplifting change for McCain at the convention, has hurt McCain. And if it were national security that took off as the major topic these last few weeks, it would be worse.
October 16, 2008 8:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
The chorus of her conservative critics grows every day. That's the problem with Potemkin Village politics--you can only get away with it if you are passing by on the river--if you actually get out of the boat and try and check into the hotel, you're in for a rude awakening.
October 16, 2008 8:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
I agree that Obama would win this election on character, the issues, and a more effective campaign organization, even without the banking crisis. But the crisis sure will make a difference in the margins.
October 16, 2008 10:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
McCain Dumps Palin, For Joe the Plumber
http://satiricalpolitical.com/?p=4031
October 16, 2008 8:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
Just continuing the sayonara.... McCain will not be given the chance for vacation as president so let's just give him his long vacation. I don't know about his second term but I found a reference that said George Bush spent 543 days of his first term ON VACATION! (one of the many reasons I was stupefied he got reelected...) It's completely wimpy when you just pray for a working president so of course Obama will be the coffee president.
October 16, 2008 9:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
If I didn't believe in Government I'd be at my ranch half the time as well.
October 16, 2008 12:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Campaigning and governing are too different things. So we need to be ever vigilant. Campaigning is about winning at any cost and being able to work the system. It involves broad strokes, but as in the housing crisis, we should all read the fine print.
October 16, 2008 9:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
Which time? 1932, 1936, 1940, or 1944?
I really don't know what that means. I'd have to say that Truman's 1948 campaign was awfully good, considering that it was widely believed that Dewey was certain to win. He took it to the Republican Congress, saying things like “I’ll stop telling the truth about the Republicans if they’ll stop telling lies about me.”
Similarly, I believe that Kennedy’s 1960 campaign was also remarkable, being able to win despite the country being generally satisfied with the way the country was going. The fact that he was Roman Catholic was nearly as big a hurdle at the time as Obama’s race is today, and people were less afraid to admit publically that they would not vote for a Catholic.
I don't disagree that Obama’s campaign has been brilliant. He has stuck to his plan, despite criticism from both the left and right that he should be doing it differently. He has had help from George W. Bush and the financial meltdown, just as FDR had help from Hoover and the Depression.
October 16, 2008 9:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, what? Any white man could have beaten Hoover. FDR won by comfortable margins in '36 and '40, and '44 was wartime. Did he really run particularly good campaigns? I agree that '48 and '60 seem to be the standouts of the era.
October 16, 2008 12:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good comment. Good politicians work the system. McGovern also worked the caucus system to beat Humphrey and Muskie. But he was helped by Nixon encouraging Wallace to run as a Democrat.
We are lucky that a Nixon is not running. McBrat has virtually no political talent. He's a spoiled Navy brat frat boy who never grew up. And we've all had enough of them.
There is so much that goes on behind the scenes with the shadowy puppet masters that I'm not breaking out the champagne. We are headed in a different direction, but I'm not sure it's a place I want to go.
October 16, 2008 1:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Stealing the election is definitely on the agenda for the Republicans - mostly to keep the numbers close in the House and Senate. This is a big deal. It threatens our country's ability to craft a responsible plan for governance, and undermines consensus. Almost everyone agrees that routine election manipulation is part of the Republican play book. It's past time to tighten the rules and procedures.
McCain is going to lose, and I think that the Republicans are ok with that. For one thing, they get to blame the pain cleaning up their mess brings to the American public on the Democrats. And, there is not enough left to steal; they will wait until the Democrats have put some money back into the safe before they rob it again.
October 16, 2008 9:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
However badly McCain has done in this campaign, I think it's a stretch to say that he will disappear from political life. Perhaps he will come back as the old John McCain, a politician of some interest. He's a bad candidate but not a nobody.
October 16, 2008 9:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
Cypher,
McCain will have lost his attraction to the main stream media, he won't get that pandering coverage after he loses the election. He's lost much of it now with the crappy way he's campaigning.
Look for the word "maverick" to disappear from the Dictionary of American Journalism soon.
October 16, 2008 1:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
....interesting question that was NOT asked at last night's debate - question being, WHO WOULD YOU APPOINT (in advance of January 20, 2009) AS YOUR SECRETARY OF THE TREASURE? Warren Buffet's name has come up more than a few times....for McCain, who would he appoint, the recently named Nobel Prize for Economics, Paul Krugman (a professor at Princeton University and columnist for The New York Times)...Or, maybe 'Joe the Plummer' (with a wide crack up his economic butt).
If the economic conditions were not as dire, the presidential race would be closer but I feel Obama would still win, by a squeaker (not by a landslide that is now, in reality projected for November 4th)....
October 16, 2008 10:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
Sarah Palin told Rush Limbaugh that she's going to keep campaigning the way she has been because she "has nothing to lose." This is what I fear, the "nothing to lose" tactic.
I see the Republicans facing a disaster in this election, losing the White House and a number of seats in Congress, with a possibility of the Dems picking up enough Senate seats to make it filibuster proof.
The Republicans see this too and they're already seeing they have "nothing to lose" by trying to steal races in any way they can. We saw that here in a Bucks County Apartment Complex, and I'm reading about it all over the country, most recently in Ohio where Republicanudges ordered the Dem Sec of State to come up with a program for the counties that will double check new registrations. One minor typo on a registration form will be cause for challenge. Indiana, with a new tough voter ID law, blessed by the Supreme Court, and Montana? where the top Republican was going to challenge all those that moved to a different address. (he just resigned due to the controversy.)
Anyhow, once the totals are in, if they win, they have control, regardless of whether or not it was stolen.
Kerry said he will have lawyers all over the country watching the election, I guess they didn't get to Ohio. Obama needs to go into election day with at least an 8/10% lead in the polls which would make it difficult to steal.
As Sarah said "I have nothing to lose". Neither do the Republicans.
Dems need to be ready for this.
October 16, 2008 10:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
Also they need to be ready with enough printed paper ballots for when the new-fangled voting machines stop working in urban (Obama) districts. We know the drill, 2000 and 2004 have taught us something, haven't they?
By now it's pretty obvious that the "Help America Vote Act" pushed through a Republican majority Congress is anything but.
October 16, 2008 10:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, only the most foolish of fools would ever utter such a remark. She has to go home to Alaska, where a whole bunch of pissed off Democracts in the Alaskan Congress are waiting to be uncooperative with her.
October 16, 2008 11:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
She might forget to wear her hood. Her husband can bring the burning cross down to the lower 48 on his snowmobile.
October 16, 2008 5:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Mr. Rosenberg,
It is obvious despite what you say that you don't have a superstitious bone in your body... phrases like
Have a way of coming back to haunt people... believe me, everything is so weird right now that anything could happen.
October 16, 2008 11:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
If there is no visit from al-Qaeda this month, perhaps we can conclude that they are unable to project power or have dropped their beef with us. Because really, if they're not attacking us now, what are they doing?
October 16, 2008 12:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain is a fighter pilot by trade, and I think his campaign and debate approach could be summed up as a dogfight. "I really got him with that shot..." "Joe Plumber is my secret weapon." "Hit 'em with some zingers John." The negative ads. It's a dogfight / fighter pilot mentality that, quite frankly, would be dangerous as everything else McCain would do if he did get the job would be done with the same mindset and approach I think. I don't have anything against ex-figter pilots. I am just making an observation about how I think McCain's mind operates. ??
October 16, 2008 1:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
http://blueintheblueridge.blogspot.com/
After last night’s debate (with apologies to Budd Schulberg’s On the Waterfront):
Act III, Scene 6 - PLACING THE BLAME
Int. Hofstra University Debate Hall – Night
Deserted. Bob Scheiffer is gone. The people and media types are gone.
Barack and Michelle are gone. Cindy McCain is gone. In a darkened dressing
room, only George Bush and John McCain remain. Tension and the threat of
violence in the air.
Bush
Look, kid, er, old man, I - how much you weigh, John?
When you weighed one hundred and sixty-eight pounds
you were beautiful. You coulda been another Billy Conn,
and that skunk you got for a campaign manager, he brought
you along too fast.
McCain
It wasn't him, George, it was you. Remember that night
in the Senate you came down to my dressing room and you
said, "Kid, er, old man, this ain't your night. The country’s
going for the price on Obama." You remember that? "This
ain't your night"! My night! I coulda taken Obama apart!
So what happens? He gets the title shot on January 20th
outdoors in D.C. and what do I get? A one-way ticket
to Palooka-ville! You was my President, George, you shoulda looked out for me a little bit. You shoulda taken care of me just
a little bit so I wouldn't have to take them dives for the short-end money.
Bush
Oh I had some bets down for you. You married that beer
heiress. You saw some money.
McCain
You don't understand. I coulda had class. I coulda been a
contender. I coulda been somebody, instead of a bum, which
is what I am, let's face it. It was you, George.
October 16, 2008 2:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not over. Not by a long shot.
October 16, 2008 3:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
"He has passed the first test of presidential greatness"
What the heck does that mean?
October 17, 2008 9:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Massive fraud or racial discomfort"??
How about if the nation finally wakes up to Obama's inexperience with foreign policy? I'd prefer the "geezer" myself.
If hell does freeze over and McCain wins, please don't blame it on America being racist. Feel free to blame your Democrats as being racist, but the Republicans are voting against Barry for other reasons.
October 17, 2008 9:24 PM | Reply | Permalink