McCain's Economic Proposal: The Tortoise and the Hare-Brained
Like many Americans, Sen. John McCain is caught in the vortex of the rapidly downward-spiraling American economy. Like them, he is being pushed in directions he doesn't want to go. McCain's campaign has openly wished that something would "turn the page" away from economic issues. But yesterday, a day after Sen. Barack Obama announced a four-point program to address the nation's economic problems, Sen. McCain, slow to react in the first place but not to be outdone, did likewise.
McCain's set of proposals revolves around - you saw this coming, didn't you? - tax cuts. Tax cuts for capital losses, tax cuts for capital gains, tax cuts for corporations, tax cuts for early withdrawals from retirement accounts. His other major proposals, for mortgage refinancing, cleansing banks of distressed assets, restricting executive compensation, have all been approved by Congress and signed by the President already.
In short, there is little new in what Sen. McCain proposes. What is new is nonsense.
Let's have a look at the battery of tax cuts he proposes. "I will increase the amount of capital losses from $3,000 to $15,000, which can be deducted from your ordinary income in tax years 2008 and 2009," he promises. Can you hear the giant sucking sound? That's the sound of people scared to lose more than the 36 percent they have already lost in the stock market this year sucking money out of the market and, guess what, further depressing stock values. The federal government should be subsidizing that?
OK, now capital gains. Here, McCain proposes cutting the rate 15 to 7.5 percent. "This vital measure will promote buying, raise asset values, help companies and shore up the pension plans for workers and retirees." Well, that's a wonderful idea, though in ordinary times it would be too expensive and fiscally irresponsible to consider. Fortunately, in a year when the market is on track to lose upward of thirty percent, precious few people will have capital gains to speak of. Look at the bright side: the idea won't cost very much. But it won't do much either.
Fine, corporate taxes. Cutting them "from 35 percent - the second-highest in the world - to 25 percent", McCain says, "could create millions of new jobs." In a normally functioning economy with an actual credit market, this might be true. The best that could be said for this idea, under current circumstances, is that it might slow the growing rate of unemployment. But this proposal is actually pretext.
The statistic McCain cites, that our corporate tax rate is the world's second highest, is intellectually dishonest. After accounting for all the corporate tax deductions, deferrals, exemptions, and credits cluttering our tax code, the effective American corporate tax rate is closer to second lowest in the world. In fact, the U.S. is actually a corporate tax haven, with the lowest effective corporate tax rates of almost all the countries that participate in the OECD. But cut we must.
Lastly, the idea of tax cuts for early withdrawals from retirement accounts. This was a plank in Sen. Obama's program, and he credited McCain with the idea. McCain does not quite return the favor. "Under the emergency measure I propose, we will also cut the tax rate for withdrawals from tax-preferred retirement accounts to ten percent," McCain claims. But in the next breath, he stomps on his own idea:
"It is essential that we avoid an exodus of capital from the market. Senator Obama yesterday offered up a proposal that would have the effect of encouraging early withdrawal of funds from 401(k) accounts, by suspending penalties through 2009. This is an invitation to capital flight, and therefore to continued instability in the market, at a moment when exactly the opposite is needed."
McCain can't have it both ways.
There is much more silliness in the McCain proposal. He repeats the tiresome canard that we can save money by eliminating earmarks. When he says "[w]e cannot spend the next four years as we have spent much of the last eight: waiting for our luck to change. The hour is late and our troubles are getting worse. We have to act immediately. We have to change direction now," you wonder, who does he think he's fooling? The nation's investor class - the chief beneficiary of his plan - has not been waiting for their luck to change these past eight years. Most of them couldn't believe their luck.
But one silly aside of his takes the cake: "Investors are always responsible for their investment decisions, but the hard earned savings of Americans should not be penalized by the erratic behavior of politicians."
A man who in a fortnight went from crowing that "the fundamentals of our economy are strong" to halting his campaign, proposing to cancel a presidential debate, and rushing to Washington to disrupt legislative efforts to address the economic crisis, would do well not to mention the "erratic behavior of politicians."















Why is Obama's proposal any better?
October 15, 2008 9:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
"Why is Obama's proposal any better?"
The answer, middleclassbill, is in your name.
October 15, 2008 10:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
He's helping the middle class but he's hurting the lower class. Giving them "tax cuts" when they don't pay taxes right now will dis-incentivize a lot of people not to get higher education or a better paying job.
October 15, 2008 11:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well Bill, the "lower classes" do pay income taxes. They pay 5% (10% before Bush's tax cuts) if they make under $6000 a year. That's the only one of Bush's tax cuts I would keep.
October 15, 2008 6:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
I have now become convinced that mcShame signs on to policies without any regard for their social consequences. All he seem to care about is if rich, well-connected people will profit in the short run. What a juvenile way of thinking! It's like the kid who would vote in favor of no homework and more recess, caring nothing about his or her future career potentials. The man is so manifestly unfit for high office - in so many ways - that I'm running out of words.
October 15, 2008 9:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
Cutting capital gains taxes is a bad idea? The data would not suggest that.
In 1997, the CG tax rate was cut to 20% and capital gains tax receipts increased from $100bn in 1997 to $140bn in 2000.
In 2003, the rate was cut to 15% and CG tax receipts went from $60bn in 2003 to $120bn in 2007.
October 15, 2008 10:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
cuts in capital gains taxes will not get out of this economic mess especially when they are accompanied by more spending in buying up mortgages as McCain proposes.
October 15, 2008 11:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
So therefore, those increases in receipts MUST be due to the capital gains tax cuts and not some unrelated change, like for example, that the S&P500 increased by 50% over those same periods.
Jeez.
October 15, 2008 1:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Middle Class Bill,
yep, me and Cheney made capital gains when we sold our Halliburton shares, I sold my 3 shares and Cheney sold his 60,000 shares.
October 15, 2008 1:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain is a Republican - nothing more need be said.
October 15, 2008 11:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
There's clearly lots of forces behind receipt of capital gains taxes, but you can't argue that lower CG tax rate wasn't one of the contributing factors. What are the negative social consequences associated with that?
It's impossible to say where the S&P is headed in the future, but whether it goes up or down, people will be more inclined to sell stock (and buy stock) of companies if they think there will be lower taxes on the capital gains they incur.
The original poster said cutting CG tax is a bad idea but nobody has made an argument why. All I hear is something stupid about Cheney?? McCain is a Republican, enough said??
I thought people on here actually liked to debate substanitive points?
October 15, 2008 11:02 PM | Reply | Permalink