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We Have Met the Enemy, and He Is Tom Brokaw

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Before I start, I want to say that if there was one bit of advice I could give Barack Obama for the final debate, it's to note that Gabby Hayes does not understand that the current economic mess is not a consequence of corruption. His simple-minded, self-righteous clichés are not the change we need. On the corruption front, the problem is not the violation of laws. The problem is what is legal. End of advice.

Hey all you media people -- David Broder, Brian Williams, Jim Lehrer -- who think the candidates are now obliged to detail a medley of painful spending cuts and tax increases, will you please shut your stupid face? You have no idea what you are talking about.

In 1980, Jimmy Carter's last year in office, the ratio of Federal debt held by the public to GDP was 26 percent. By the end of Ronald Reagan's terms in 1988 it was 41 percent. Republicans say economic growth in the 80s was great. In Bill Clinton's time in office it was as high as 49 percent, and Democrats said it was a fabulous decade. Now it is 38 percent. If tomorrow the debt went up by $1 trillion, the ratio would be 45 percent. We have lived with this before and we will live with it again.

The annual cost of servicing another $1 trillion forever would be about $60 billion. Federal outlays are currently $2,931 billion (FY '08). This year that $60 billion would be less than half a percent of GDP. In five years it would be .3 percent of GDP. A fixed trillion-dollar addition to the public debt of this magnitude is not a problem.

Of course, thus far we have not added $1 trillion to the debt. And whatever is added, the outlays are not committed all at once, and they are gross of the returns to selling the assets acquired.

The traditional economists' animus towards public debt is that it crowds out private investment by raising interest rates, or it displaces investment by absorbing savings as consumption. These days interest rates are determined in global capital markets and the world's governments are coordinating a reduction in interest rates. Regarding the redirection of savings, in this case it isn't happening; the outlays are going into the capital markets.

The other concern about borrowing is not the level but the trend. The Federal debt inspires worries not because of this year's level, but its growth in the absence of policy change. A one-shot increase in debt is no issue in this context.

In a business cycle downturn, of course austerity via spending cuts or tax increases is counterproductive. Obama has not committed to austerity measures during the downturn. McCain seems to think his proposed, albeit unspecified spending cuts are not an issue in this context. Of course he is as clueless as our media elites.

A spending increase in health care can be appropriate with regard to both the short and the long run, if the object of health care reform is a reduced rate of growth of health care outlays, Medicare and Medicaid. This will require some additional spending up front.

The New York Times columnist Russell Baker once said, "Beware of calls for sacrifice from the rich." The current delusions have taken on a religious character. There is a generalized notion that we are guilty of the sin of gluttony and repentance requires fasting. This is also the analysis of the president of Iran. Beware of religious explanations of economic phenomena. Also, beware of calls for sacrifice from the rich. And beware of economic nostrums from idiots. The more highly placed they are, the more idiotic they seem to be.


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This is a test. This is only a test. In the event of an actual comment, you would be instructed to take what I say with a grain of salt, and/or take two aspirin and call me in the morning.

-- ARG

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Hey, it worked!

Mr. Rotwang, you point out rightly that conventional wisdom is often wrong and perhaps it is so in this case.

I wonder whether you see nefarious motives in this? Do you feel (as I do) that this is part of the ongoing campaign to undo all the progressive gains of the last 70 years, and to ensure that no new progressive policies are put in place?

Or are they simply incompetent?

-- ARG

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If incompetence were simple, everyone would be doing it.

At this level, it's so much more than incompetence. These people are deeply, deeply certain that sitting astride the horse backward is the godly way to ride.

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I agree, as usual, with the wisdom of Prof. Rotwang but have one suggestion for where the nation's budget could be significantly trimmed regardless of who might be elected President. It's the elephant in the living room and nobody is talking about it though they should be talking about it all the time.

The United States "defense" budget is obscenely huge. There is simply no justification for the US spending what it does every single year on war (sorry, "defense"). We spend as much as all the other nations n earth combined. Let me repeat this so there's no confusion: we spend as much on "defense" each year as all the other nations on earth combined.

Don't take my word for it. Go here and see the numbers for yourself:

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/spending.htm

We spend $623 billion per year. The rest of the world spends $500 billion! That is the definition of obscene, grotesque unjustifiable spending.

We could easily cut our annual defense appropriations in half. If we combine that cut with ending the idiotic and illegal war/occupation of Iraq we will have plenty of money to work with solving the nation's real problems and restoring some fiscal sanity to the federal budget.

So, while I agree with Rotwang's point that the stupid notion of Mr. Lehrer and Mr. Brokaw that the candidates should now be outlinging which programs and initiatives the people will have to do without, this is one area where we could easily "sacrifice" and by freeing up these funds for productive uses instead of pouring them down the rathole of war/defense spending we would be giving our economy a giant and very needed boost.

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Oh, right!

What about the yellow hoard and all those brown people not to mention Sen. Lott's constituents.

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Methinks Brokaw et al. simply regurgitate what elite economists say. Note that most economists don't know much follow the Federal budget, so they don't realize the cause of projected growth is Medicare and Medicaid, period.

In this situation, the commentators are behind the curve, since there are elite economists who acknowledge the gist of my post, including a dude who just got some kind of economics prize.

Of course, the defense (sic) budget is enormously bloated. Under Clinton it was about $300 billion. Bill Niskanen, kind of the Cato libertarians, once proposed it be whittled down to $80-something billion.

Cutting DoD down would buy us a lot of time to fix health care. But if we don't fix it, it will become an increasing burden.

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Yes, defense spending should be reduced. But the defense infrastructure (aka military industrial complex) should be re-purposed, rather than abandoned. (For one thing, in the middle of an economic downturn, you don't want to reduce gov't spending, as your main post pointed out.)

We should instead invenst money in energy independence, using some of the same people and perhaps even the same companies who now make bombs and rockets. It's easy to see how energy independence is a "national security" issue, too, so it would make sense.

Keep in mind that a lot of that defense spending supports your friends and neighbors. Doesn't make it right, but it's a fact. Need to keep those people gainfully employed, but doing something more productive.

-- ARG

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Repurposing is fine when you can do it. Everybody can think of energy-related work that needs doing.

I'd note that many moons ago there was a lot of discussion about the disruption that would ensue from defense build-down -- disemployment, community destruction. In the late 80s the build-down began and continued through 9-11, but the fears of suffering did not come to pass. The economy proved capable of switching gears pretty well, though unfortunately it did not move into endeavors of great social utility. Instead we got the dot-com and housing bubbles.

Seems that Capitalism is not very good at capital allocation or risk spreading.

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There is no "repurposing" the obscenely bloated and dangerous US military establishment.

It is an abomination and a threat to world peace and to American long range economic survival. We must dismantle much of it and keep only what is needed to defend the United State's legitimate interests as opposed to the interests of a certain limited set of American based multinational corporations that think of the US military as their own private worldwide police force and/or gang of thugs. When we did begin to dismantle that gargantuan malignancy when the Cold War was dying, our economy boomed folks: it positively boomed!

There's no downside to scaling the military budget down to sane levels... say $100 billion annually. Can you even comprehend the economic beneift of redirecting all that spending to productive, useful purposes? It would be fantastic in every way!

The sole reason we are unable to fund all the human needs we have, chief among them healthcare for all our people, is because we have so perverted the nation's priorities toward military spending that to continue to do so only weakens us in the long term. The completely unjustified and out of control defense spending is the biggest budgetary problem we face: bar none.

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If we rely on armaments corporations for our efforts to become more energy efficient, and weaned off oil as the major source of our energy, we will end up with monthly electric bills that rival our annual medical insurance bills. But, we will have the most complex energy system ever devised by man.

I agree that we can't just disband the armaments industry, because it would cost too many jobs. And, similarly we can't disband our crystal meth, rock cocaine and pot industries for the same reason. I also suggest that we must keep our sex industries going for that reason too.

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