Stock Market Closes Below Monday Low: Come On Let's Have Some Hysteria!
Okay, let's hear from all those media commentators and politicians who screamed about the stock market plunge on Monday in response to Congress' rejection of the bailout. With the market closing lower today than it did on Monday should we assume that the bailout didn't work?
Should we be screaming about the hundreds of billions of dollars lost in retirement accounts and pensions? Or was that just something they talked about when they were pushing for a Wall Street bailout?














I think you're being too cute by half. I think you know as well as the rest of us do that the market's is and was always going to tank bailout or no bailout.
Supposedly, the bailout is meant to save the credit markets, not the stock market, and stem a far greater and very far reaching catastrophe.Of course it may not do this either. But I don't have the surety on this issue that you seem to. I tend to agree with your colleagues Kuttner, Galbraith et al. that inaction was just not an option.
October 3, 2008 4:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
The issue Baker's speaking to is the dishonesty associated with the "marketing" of the bailout plan.
You've missed the point -- as usual.
October 3, 2008 4:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Meaning that he has no other problems with the bailout plan other than the marketing attack?
Thanks for pointing that out, Ellen. I'd thought he had rather large problems with the bailout, but it's good to know he was only making fun of its marketing and nothing else. That really did escape me completely.
October 3, 2008 9:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Let me see if I can help you out, here.
Your comment was off-topic -- that is, it did not address the blog subject (marketing the panic).
There's nothing overly objectionable with off-topic comments, but if they relate to statements made or positions taken outside the thread (as you now claim), then, you must reference those statements in order that the reader can know what you're talking about -- unless, off course, your comment is intended to be nothing more than a self-indulgent rant.
This general rule is made stricter in the case of criticisms directed at individuals. In those circumstances the commenter's willingness to appear foolish doesn't, as it otherwise would, absolve him or her from responsibility.
Etiquette and good manners as well as intellectual integrity and basic fairness mandate the prior production, in a formulation as exact as possible, of the arguments or positions of those the commenter is criticizing.
October 3, 2008 10:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks again, Ellen. A bit opaque here and there, but language walking on stilts of course befits your very high minded theme. And beyond the turgid bits, a most edifying piece.
Thanks ever so.
October 4, 2008 12:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
touche' anna am. Ellen can be most obtuse. But her main point remains valid -- Dean did make a good point and you either missed it or tried to obfuscate it.
October 4, 2008 12:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well, both Governor Paterson of New York and Governor Schwarzenegger of California sounded pretty hysterical today.
October 3, 2008 4:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bank Rescue May Not Negate Fed Loan Need, Schwarzenegger Says
Bloomberg, Oct. 3
...The governor wrote a letter to U.S. Secretary Henry Paulson last night, saying turmoil in the credit markets has impeded the state's access to short-term financing commonly used by states and local governments to pay bills until tax revenue arrives later in the year. California and other U.S. states may need emergency federal loans if the credit crisis doesn't ease soon, Schwarzenegger said...
Paterson: $1.2 billion budget gap "an emergency"
Bizjournals.com, NC - 1 hour ago
David Paterson delivered more grim news on Friday: The shake-up on Wall Street has opened a $1.2 billion hole in the current state budget...
October 3, 2008 4:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't know why Arnold's complaining.
Two days ago, I loaned him money -- at 5.23% tax free.
October 3, 2008 5:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Because we're on the edge of the abyss or as Little Carmine Lupertazzi warned Tony Soprano
This is a very real problem that's sent our Congress over the cliff toward the wrong solution but make no mistake..
It is later and worse than you hear in the MSM
October 3, 2008 9:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ha!
That's just because you don't know how much money I loaned him.
October 3, 2008 9:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bad? American's financial sector in the '70's and '80's was one-fifth as big as the total profits of America's non-financial firms. After 2000, it was about one-half as big.
October 4, 2008 12:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
The 110th Congress, will possibly go down in infamy as the least effective, thoughtful and craven Congress in history, except of course for 1994 though 2007. What's wrong with having meaningful oversight and true accountability from Treasury and the welfare recipients. My guess is it cuts into the returns on most members investments and back door deals.
October 3, 2008 4:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not sure that today's market was doing anything
more arcane than "Buy on the rumor , sell on the news." Monday's market will be a better test.
October 3, 2008 5:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
FWIW, the talking heads on CNBC right now are saying its mainly that the hedge funds are doing the selling they are being forced to do by circumstance. And that made me recall that, by chance, as I'm not a regular viewer, I heard Jim Cramer telling his show viewers about 3 days ago that they should expect the hedge funds to be selling for the next 4 days. I remembered Cramer's statement because I thought, how odd that he would pick an exact number of days like that.
October 3, 2008 5:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
What was so frustrating the last week is that many of us believe that equities remain over-valued because of the coming recession, but that Monday's plunge gave the bailout boys the upper hand politically. Now that the bill has passed, it appears as if the market is starting to pay attention to the rest of the economy. They noticed that there is some bad news out there that the bail out can't touch.
And once that .7 trillion has been sucked into the pit of 2 or more trillion dollars of bad debt, we will still have a credit crises on our hands. The fact that the TED spread remains at record levels means that the banksters are fully aware that the bailout is insufficient. It is they after all that set the Libor rates.
October 3, 2008 5:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
There are starting to be concerns about something called a "recession." Besides, the bail out is just so yesterday... problem solved, right?
Interesting that Citi and Wells are now fighting over Wachovia.
My thanks to Ellen for loaning the Governator a few bucks.
We have a very interesting situation here in California. For example, one area is very good at growing garlic. However, the farmers are going out of business because garlic is being shipped in from China.
October 3, 2008 5:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yee be speaking of Gilroy, CA....
October 3, 2008 5:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Save KFAT!!!
October 3, 2008 6:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes indeed. I've even been to the Garlic Festival.
October 3, 2008 7:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wells Fargo is fighting for Wachiovia's debt..they want it on their books so they can write it off and have reduced taxes.
http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/10/irs-tax-change-helps-wells-fargo.html
Sweet, no wonder Buffet supoorted this.
October 3, 2008 6:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wells Fargo is getting to benefit from the new bailout. They want Wachovia's bad debt...it's going to reduce their taxes.
Buffet will do just fine.
http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/10/irs-tax-change-helps-wells-fargo.html
October 3, 2008 6:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Mark this date on your calender, Oct. 3 2008, as the day America committed suicide.
October 3, 2008 5:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
We'll bury it --
October 3, 2008 6:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Grow up, Zeno. America isn't dying, or killing itself, or going into a long decline, or any of that crap.
Sometimes bad things happen. Sometimes out leaders make the right choices. Sometimes they don't.
That's democracy.
October 4, 2008 12:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
And here I had the hope that when Schwarzenegger announced that the state had a problem getting a bridge loan, the sharp among us would say (1) I think these folks are overplaying their hand here and (2) the federal government could just lend California the money directly. Then the light would dawn and we would put $700 billion to better use. But now I realize that they're still putting the stupid pills in the water and we're going to have to deal with this mess again--hopefully before Paulson dumps $700 billion into the sewer.
October 3, 2008 6:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Dean is right to point to the media as being in collusion. Yesterday I watched David Gregory on MSNBC bully Rep Walker from Texas. He almost looked angry, but definitely peeved that this bumpkin would jeopardize his world.
October 3, 2008 7:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
An interesting and important observation.
I didn't see the interview but I suspect that Gregory's "anger" was the result of his frustration not with Walker but with his own inability to respond coherently -- that is, Gregory's recognition that he's merely parroting the conventional story without knowing whether it's right or wrong and without being able to defend it.
He's left with "Everyone says it's so so it must be so" -- not exactly a Halberstam or Woodward/Bernstein heroic moment in the annals of journalism.
Simply put, he was embarrassed -- as were (or should have been) 95% of the MSM.
October 3, 2008 7:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Everything as a market place meme, is hard for them to let go of, because its made them rich. Community is much more difficult to cultivate. Sharing and cooperation are antithetical to the free for all, you're on you're own, meme they espouse. This is the result of selfishness unchecked. Society needs to shame these people now, while they are vulnerable. Otherwise, they will continue to "drink others milkshakes" until society collapses.
October 3, 2008 8:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Dean did raise a very good point. One of the emotional selling points for the urgency of the situation was that the widows and orphans lost $1.5 trillion, or whatever it was, on Monday because Congress chose to drag their feet on giving the bankers what they wanted. Well, that loss increased to $2 trillion, by my careful calculations, obviously because Congress stopped dragging their feet. But, for some strange reason, all of the concern for those poor widows and orphans seems to have vanished.
Surely we all knew the flap over their loss on Monday was utterly faked. Unfortunately our members of Congress aren't as smart as we are.
October 3, 2008 8:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Roubini 10/3:
So we are now facing:
- a silent run on the huge mass of uninsured deposits of the banking system and even a run on some insured deposits are small depositors are scared;
- a run on most of the shadow banking system: over 300 non bank mortgage lenders are now bust; the SIVs and conduits are now all bust; the five major brokers dealers are now bust (Bear and Lehman) or still under severe stress even after they have been converted into banks (Merrill, Morgan, Goldman); a run on money market funds; a serious run on hedge funds; a looming refinancing crisis for private equity firms and LBOs);
- a run on the short term liabilities of the corporate sector as the commercial paper market has totally frozen (and experiencing a roll-off) while access to medium terms and long term financings for corporations is frozen at a time when hundreds of billions of dollars of maturing debts need to be rolled over;
- a total seizure of the interbank and money markets....
At this point the US, the advanced economies (and now likely even some emerging market economies) will experience an ugly recession and an ugly financial and banking crisis regardless of what we do from now on. What radical policy action can only do is preventing what will now be an ugly and nasty two-year recession and financial crisis from turning into a systemic meltdown and a decade long economic depression. The financial and economic conditions are extreme; thus extreme policy action is needed now to save the global economy from an ugly depression.
October 3, 2008 9:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
http://www.rgemonitor.com/roubini-monitor/253853/financial_and_corporate_system_is_in_cardiac_arrest_the_risk_of_the_mother_of_all_bank_runs
Paul Krugman gingerly approached "The Abyss" in today's column
Dr. Doom pulls no punches
October 3, 2008 9:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
It is ironic that the bailout is being paid for by a person who absolutely will never pay back the $700 billion - Uncle Sam. Do the math. The Federal deficit will never be repaid. Read history: Assyria, Babylon,Rome,Germany,Confederacy,etc. Massive government debts are never repaid, and none of the pikers before us ever came close to Uncle Sam's run up. Our children and grandchildren will not repay. Period. It will never happen. They will eventually rebell, or maybe elect a truly populist president and congress who will highly tax the rich or in some other way repudiate the debt. If you do the math, a small minority of elites will own everything in a generation or two. The government will owe them too many trillions for the other 99% to pay. Does anyone expect our children and grandchildren to turn themselves over to economic slavery? They may even reintroduce the gillotine. Didn't France go through something like that?
October 3, 2008 9:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm suffering from bailout fatigue but figured I'd do one final(?) piece of oppo research on these TWAWKI-is-ending panic-spreading pontificators and their financial reporter amplifiers.
There is a difference between commercial banks (they fund the financial needs of businesses) and investment banks and hedge funds (who knows what value they add).
The panic in the market occurred on Sept. 15, the day Lehman filed for bankruptcy. How did the commercial banks do on that "day of panic" in comparison to their market lows reached two months earlier on July 15? Why lookee here; they were all up -- many way up.
Bank of America up 43.4%
Wells Fargo up 51.1%
BB&T up 63.7%
US Bancorp up 45.5%
Northern Trust up 5.3%
Citigroup up 4.7%
PNC up 41.2%
My, my! It looks like Mr. Market wasn't worrying about the health of the commercial banks.
Didn't stop the Wall Streeters from crying havoc and shouting about how terrified of the future average Americans should be (Buffet's Economic "Pearl Harbor") though, did it.
October 3, 2008 9:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
What do you know about the "FDIC Watch List" apparently "FDIC never releases its ratings on the safety and soundness of banks and thrift institutions to the public.
However, there are private companies that provide their own ratings of these institutions..."
http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/bank/index.html
Have you looked into what these 'private companies' ratings are saying about the commercial bank industry in general? Can there ratings even be trusted? Seems to me that that this FDIC Watch List is one of the first things that the public should have been told about.
October 4, 2008 1:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
Identifying the banks and thrifts on the FDIC Watch List would likely generate a run on their deposits, an event the FDIC seeks to prevent while it tries to cure the institutions' deficiencies.
As of this August the FDIC announced it had 117 banks on the list. On average only 13% of banks on the list actually are shutdown although it looks like over this cycle that average will rise.
Nevertheless, there are an awful lot of banks in the U.S. -- I think I've read as many as 8000 counting thrifts (I could be a bit high on that number). But 117 out of whatever the actual number is is a small percentage.
The $700 billion bailout plan wasn't advertised as an attempt to save these Watch List banks. It's been advertised as a method of removing toxic assets from the big banks' balance sheets in order that they should be able to borrow and lend -- although why removing toxic assets should accomplish that goal has never been made clear.
Note: If the banks would be in better shape if the toxic assets were gone, all they'd have to do would be to tear up the instruments and toss the confetti out the window. :-)
October 4, 2008 4:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
Right on. The comments by the chicken little media, Bush administration and Congress have been an absolute disgrace. How they all could buy-in to the *real* Bush Doctrine of fear, then trumpet it as fact, is beyond the pale. What a bunch of sheep we have become.
October 3, 2008 9:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
And I thought when Josh first mentioned this that it was complicated...accounting rules (EEEK)
It's just a garden variety Bankers' Con Job: Mark to Market Rule Change Should Meet Its Maker
http://www.rgemonitor.com/globalmacro-monitor/253859/should_mark_to_market_meet_its_maker
October 3, 2008 9:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Can you two stop bickering already?
October 3, 2008 10:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
We're all so afraid of the unknown and so rushed that we're all better off if we just hand over the keys of 'their' tow truck company to the guys who just drove EVRYONE'S car into a ditch and made loads of money doing it? I'm incredulous over this whole thing. I saw Barney Frank do the dirty work for whoever shadow individuals give Paulson, Bernanke and Bush their marching orders. Beat the drum of fear, squeeze the politicians just before an election. This stinks. This is a sham. the american people know it. At least there's a handful of smart, sensible people in Washington D.C., such as the folks at www.cepr.net paying attention, keeping score, speaking truth to power, risking their necks - protecting history itself from revisionism and capture. Recording for history that, from right under our noses, we the American people got fleeced by The Bush/Cheney thievery corporation. Let it also be said that all of the main stream Media, Wall Street, and majority of our elected flawmakers - including both presidential candidates - were either the culprits or complicit to the great Paulson Panic and Plunder of 2008.
October 3, 2008 10:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Does Paul Krugman count as "the media"?
Because I'd venture a guess this would rate pretty decently on most hysteria meters:
October 3, 2008, 8:42 am>:
October 4, 2008 12:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
And if, before the market opened, you were opening the print edition of the New York Times instead of checking his blog, you would have seen
Krugman sum up his op-ed like this:
October 4, 2008 12:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, I have said it is the worst crisis since the Great Depression too -- many times. It is.
But, there is a huge difference between the Great Depression and everything else. Neither Krugman nor I have ever sought to imply that we risked another Great Depression. We face a very serious downturn from the collapse of the housing bubble, as I first warned in 2002. We do not face the risk of a Great Depression and it is dishonest and irresponsible to raise such fears.
October 4, 2008 8:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, but are you taking credit for warning about the "crisis" or the "downturn"?
Housing bubbles (there wasn't one in "2002") can lead to recessions (1990-91, perhaps). But the panic we're all talking about, currently, is a horse of a different color.
Unless you can show that you "warned" about the effects on the banking system of securitizing mortgages the GSEs wouldn't take (subprime and Alt-A) together with the use of private off-exchange derivatives, of extreme leverage ratios by investment banking and hedge fund institutions, and of a whole host of other questionable practices, you get no special prognostication credit for having "warned" about a growing bubble in housing prices.
October 4, 2008 1:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
October 4, 2008 7:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Let's look at LA.
Mid-2002 real home prices per Case-Shiller were around 20% above 1988 or 1992 prices. But the carrying costs were substantially less. The rate for a 30-year mortgage in 1988 was around 10.4%; in 1992, it was around 8.5%. By 2002 the rate was down to 6.5%.
No housing bubble there!
Note: You can come back with San Diego statistics where the bubble started earlier, but I doubt it will prove your 2002 housing bubble theory.
October 4, 2008 9:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Playing with figures: a $131,500 house/mortgage(1988) adjusted for inflation is $200,000 in 2002 -- or under Case-Shiller $240,000 (20% increase).
The monthly payment on a $131,500 30-year mortgage @ 10.4% is $1193; on a $240,000 mortgage @ 6.5% it is $1517.
But a 1988 household income of $43,700 is equal to a 2002 income of $57,025.
Thus, a family in that situation would pay 32.8% (1193/3642) of household income toward the mortgage in 1988 and only 27.4% (1515/4752) in 2002 even though the home was 20% more expensive in real terms in 2002.
October 5, 2008 4:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
Frankly, I'm less interested in the exact date when Baker's perennial "housing bubble call" turned out to be correct than I am in the question of whether he should be taking credit for foreseeing ("warning" of) the credit "crunch" or "crisis" or financial "panic" we are now undergoing.
Baker's view is that he called the "housing bubble," and fame and fortune are his.
My view is that congratulations are warranted only for someone who identified, early on, the particular practices which ultimately got the financial system into trouble and explained, at that time, how those practices would prove to be damaging.
Baker did not, to my knowledge, meet the latter test.
October 4, 2008 9:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, who predates this one?
October 5, 2008 2:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
Trying that formatting again:
continued @ this two-page PDF.
The rest above is my own text.
October 5, 2008 2:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
Buffet's "financial weapons of mass destruction"
Buffet's essay is very broad, and I'm not sophisticated enough to apply it to the specific derivative (credit default swaps) which is giving the financial system its current problems.
I gather that the "lack of confidence" problem in respect to CDSs (and therefore, solvency overall) is the inability to net out the entire CDS market -- $61 trillion(?).
In other words each individual institution can net out its book and make a judgment concerning its apparent exposure. But to do that, it must presume its CDS counterparties are financially sound and able to perform its CDS contracts. And yet, the individual institution doesn't know how its counterparties' nettings are working out.
And therefore, it 1) doesn't trust the solvency of other institutions and 2) doesn't even trust its own valuations.
The answer is public exchanges on which all of these CDSs would trade, but it's a little late in the game for that.
P.S. To answer your question, though, Charlie and Warren probably got it said well enough to deserve "congratulations."
October 5, 2008 3:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
The housing bubble, for the most part, is about houses on the coasts, especially California, Florida and New York. Ten years ago, houses in those states cost about 50%, maybe 100%
more than a comparable house in Omaha. At the peak of the bubble, a 20 year old 1700 square feet track home near LA cost over $900,000 while that house could be bought in Omaha for $150,000. In rural Tennesse, it could be bought on acerage for $150,000. One thing that happened is that a lot of baby boomers started retiring. They cashed in their houses in California and retired in Tennessee. They bought better homes on 5 acres and put 3/4 of a million in the bank. They couldn't believe the "bargains". They didn't find real bargains, just house prices that had not been inflated by speculators. The Tennesseans usually laughed at them, because they usually charged them a premium. They called it a Yankee tax (about 20%). I have personally talked with people from California who bought houses in the south, sight unseen. Just an internet ad with pictures, description and price. There weren't many speculators in Tennessee because too many good old boys grew up with a hammer in their hand and there is plenty of land to build new houses. And, there aren't obtrusive building codes, environmental empact problems, etc. A blueprint and a couple of acres kept the price of old and new houses in line with actual building costs.
October 4, 2008 7:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Flatland" v. "Zoned Zone land." Paul Krugman August 8, 2005
October 4, 2008 9:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
I can’t tell you how many times quick loans have come to my rescue when something crazy has happened. I thought I was the only one, but apparently my secret is out. Quick loans are a convenient way to get life back to normal after something unexpected happens. I mean, I’ve never been kiteboarding nor do I plan on it. So getting hit in the head by a whale tail might be the last thing that ever happens to me, unless whales hang out in knee-high lake water or Shamu decides to jump into the stands next time I’m at Sea World. However, Mother Nature recently dealt me a nasty blow. A few weeks ago there was a wind storm. The power went out, which was no big deal because I just went to bed. I woke up to a loud crash. To my dismay, the beautiful maple tree in our backyard had splintered under the force of the wind and plummeted through the kitchen roof. I am thankful that no one in my family was hurt, but an enormous hole in my roof was the last thing I was expecting. Our insurance covered most of the cost, but I needed quick money to get my family a hotel for a couple of nights and to pay the deductable. Quick loans were a quick solution to an unwelcome surprise. Click to read more on Kiteboarder Meets Whale Tail | Crazy Days Mean Quick Loans
November 18, 2008 1:53 AM | Reply | Permalink