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Responsibility and the Bailout: Will They Resign If It Fails?

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Today's the big vote. The nation's political leadership has carried out a full court press for this bailout. They have frequently ignored the facts and commonsense (since when do we make policy based on stock market swings?) and repeatedly tossed out the specter of the Great Depression to push their case.

It's clear that the overwhelming majority of the public thinks that this Wall Street bailout stinks, but Wall Street has immense political power and it is likely that it will get its way.

If it is not possible to stop the bailout, how about a fallback position? Perhaps we can force our political leaders to take responsibility for their actions. Remember, we are only in this economic mess because the people who designed this bailout (Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, and President Bush) failed to stem the growth of the housing bubble. Rather than take responsibility for this disaster, they are demanding $700 billion bailout to patch up their mistakes.

How about a commitment to take responsibility this time?

In other societies, and at other times in our society, the leaders that brought on such a disaster would feel the need to resign their positions. That apparently is not about to happen just now.

However, since we have heard so much sanctimony about the importance of this bill to the nation's economic future, perhaps we can force our political leaders to put their power where their mouth is.

As a very large number of economists have argued, this bailout is fundamentally flawed in its design. It should be focused on directly injecting capital into the banking system, not overpaying for bad assets. This design flaw makes the bailout far less effective. Furthermore, this bill does almost nothing to offset the contractionary effect from the collapse of an $8 trillion housing bubble. For these reasons, it is not just morally repugnant to give taxpayer dollars to incompetent Wall Street bankers; it is also bad economic policy.

So here's the deal. One simple measure of the success of the bailout is whether it fixes the mess. Will it be sufficient to restore the banking system or will we need still more money six months or a year down the road? Suppose it does?

Will our political leaders, who promised us that this bailout is the essential medicine for the economy, just get up and tell us that they need still more money? If our political leaders believe what they are telling the public, then they should be prepared to take responsibility for the success or failure of their policy. Are there any commitments to resign leadership positions in the event this great policy fails?


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Well, you've been putting a lot of energy into convincing people not to do the bailout. So will you resign if it succeeds?

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Almost every economist I know rejects the Paulson approach and argues instead for directly injecting capital into the banks. The taxpayers give them the money and then we own some, or all, of the bank. (That's what Warren Buffet did with Goldman Sachs.) Dean Baker Monday, September 29

I'm not sure that sounds like someone who is trying to "[convince] people not to do the bailout."

Do you?

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not to do the bailout

I think he means, not this bailout.

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Don't worry Dean. John McCain's gonna fire Christopher Cox.

And don't forget, Lynndie England is in jail for Abu Ghraib.

None of us out here in the peanut gallery are privy to what these Senators were shown or told.
Is it possible that if we did know, the Nation would have panicked and our financial crisis would have worsened?

I’ve heard people say “Of course Congress will pass the plan, because they benefit from Wall Street” Doh!!

They’re trying to save their millions, don’t you think the side benefit is we’ll save our hundreds, or thousands. Our businesses? Our homes if this thing worsens.

I’ve heard some citizens say “why should we believe Bush, since he’s cried wolf so many times.”
It’s because the wolf did eventually appear, and ignore it at your peril.

I remember reading events leading to the Great Depression; there were those that kept saying that government should not bailout the speculators. Six months later, those same people were frantically writing and begging for government help, but it came to late.

I don't want to take the risk, that if YOU"RE wrong, you'll hang your head and say Soorrryyy.

What? Thats supposed to alleviate the Great suffering that could occur?

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Those who follow Dean Baker on opposing the Treasury financial plan are like wild dogs baying at the moon, howling into the dark night.

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It strikes me that the defenders of the bailout bill are very much like the defenders of the Iraq invasion. They say:

We're not privy to all the information.

Our leaders know things we don't know.

The consequences of not doing anything could be severe.

We don't want the smoking gun to be a mushroom cloud (or a mushrooming depression).

It's an argument based on lack of knowledge and fear.

The reality is that none of us (including the most knowledgeable economists) knows what may happen if we bail out the financial markets or if we don't.

My question is, if we're going to pump $700 billion of taxpayer's borrowed money into the economy to help prevent a collapse, is the best way to do that by buying up bad debt and assets that currently have no market and are nearly impossible to value? Why not use the money instead to make loans to profitable businesses or to buy equity in financial companies that are strong, giving those strong financial companies more liquidity to lend? Or why not use the money to build needed infrastructure, stimulating a boom in construction-related jobs and businesses, which would, in turn, create more consumption helping all businesses?

My problem with the bailout is that we're getting stuck with a lot of junk with very little certainty of any return. I know some people (like Dan K) argue that the junk may not be junk--and Dan's right about that, some of the junk could eventually have value--but it just as well could be exactly what the market now thinks it is: worthless crap. Remember, a lot of the securities we are apparently buying aren't actually failed mortgages. They are derivative instruments that are only distantly connected to the mortgages. If the mortgages turned out to be better than expected, the derivatives may still not rise in value because their flaws have been "exposed" and investors may no longer be enamored of them as useful hedging vehicles. If this is the case, these derivatives will remain worthless. While a lot of people want to move from "mark-to-market" accounting (which merely means valuing things at what they sell for in the marketplace--normally a very sensible accounting procedure), a lot of these derivatives have no value without a market for them. So how do you value them without a market? Black-Scholes works fine for simple derivatives (options)--but a lot of the newer vehicles are far more complex and there's no proven way to value them other than by their market price. It just seems to me that there are a lot better ways to pump $700 billion into the economy than by buying stuff that no one can value and that may simply evaporate.

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You forgot, "The bailout will pay for itself..."

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The Iraqi oil will pay for the invasion.

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Yes, and we'll be greeted as liberators!

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The stock market is down 250 points now. Those are rose petals???

Weren't you the guy who said last night that it was going to go up 500 points in the first hour, as one final scam to help the rich get richer?

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Of course that was my prediction, and I am never wrong. POW POW POW POW 9/11 9/11

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Oh Hoppy, don't be silly, it's just (as Rumsfeld said when asked about the looting of Iraq's national treasures) a bit of "freedom's untidiness."

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You're in good company, Hoppy.

Here's Jonathan Taplin 9 hours before the market opened on 9/26/2008:

. . . the stock market will tank tomorrow morning . . . the only number the average American looks at is the Dow . . . .

Dow opens down 3 points and finishes the day up 121.

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People should have lost their jobs well before now, so I don't guess it is going to happen. That people should have been fired goes without question.

This underscores the fantasy world our politicians live in. There have been only minor rumblings from our lawmakers calling for resignations. The persons involved are shameless. Most people would resign for being party to a failure of this magnitude. That neither the congress nor the president have called for resignations makes them equally culpable for what has happened. The entire Washington establishment is irresponsible.

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Well, this is another reason the bailout must be stopped now. A lame duck administration should not be allowed to borrow massive amounts of money to buy bad assets in our names. By the time we know whether or not this worked, Bush and Paulson will be gone. So either say no now, or give up any notions of accountability.

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Unfortunately the only accountablilty that is in effect is what we force on election day. And, very few, if any of the senators who voted for this mess have any worries about what their voters will do.

Congressional Representatives are in a somewhat more precarious position. The bad effects of this gift of nearly a trillion dollars may well be obvious before November, and every single one of these folks faces the voters in November. I still look for the House to pass a much more populist bill today or tomorrow. Of course the final bill that makes it through the joint committee will be the Senate Bill, but for a day or two we will still have the appearance of a responsible House.

Oddly enough, as I write this, the stock market is down about 250 points. Using the logic of the supporters of this bill it is critically important that the House not act at all for a couple of weeks. Otherwise, trillions in widows and orphans investments will be lost!

Down 288 now; this is so typical; on any other day all the online sources would be wailing and showing pictures of starving babies if the markets opened with performance like this.

Today, after the Senate signs on to the bailout, the market tanks and there's almost no mention... except that MSNBC says claims it's the unemployment numbers.

Every day of explanations about this thing is more pathetic than the last.

I've read that based on actual research into other similar banking crises in countries with similar economies, that the thing to do is to (indeed) act quickly, *don't* have the government buy the bad assets, *do* directly recapitalize banks with a chance of surviving, directly support mortgages with a chance of making it, and let the rest fail.

This is in a report that *I've* seen cited more than once. Paulson doesn't have access to this information?

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.cfm?sk=22345.0

My guess is that we're not doing what informed opinion recommends because Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley--leveraged 30 or more to 1--would simply not make the cut.

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None of the people in the executive branch who are masterminding the bailout will be around in three months. So unless the failure is in the form of an immediate panic, they'll just meander back into the private sector. No doubt with some hefty signing bonuses right off the top of the additional money they've made available.

The exception to that is Bernanke, who will credibly be able to argue that his resignation in disgrace without a named successor would only increase the market panic.

You see, if we'd only agreed to give them even more money, all of this could have been averted...

There are many similar takes and proposals on this situation. It would be hard to make an argument that Dean's remarks have been much different than Warren Buffet's remarks or his actual actions, e.g., to get preferred stock. It is quite interesting that Warren had 32 billion in cash sitting around. I'm sure he's the only person in the world sitting on a pile of cash at the moment.

Paulson's proposal was abysmal and the revision didn't changed it in any fundamental way. The situation is so bad that House Republicans who would not vote for it sound like paragons of virtue even though they are not putting forward anything like a real alternative or solution.

What should disturb people is the lack of any fact finding or even cursory discussion of alternatives in the great halls of Congress. The alternatives are not more complicated than Paulson's plan.

What good is it to momentarily stall a panic only to have it flare up again? I, like many others I suspect, hope that my current assessment is completely wrong. We will get a politically expedient solution put together by a group whose track record is something less than stirling.

Does anyone think that even one Senator read the entirely of that bill? How much time do think their staff has to understand whatever provision they were assigned? How well qualified do you think all the staff involved are? I probably know more about bits and pieces of this than most but I don't live and breath this stuff. So much about this looks bad without having to dig very deep and the "markets" are reacting accordingly.

The debate is not about doing nothing versus doing something. The debate is about doing something that will address the financial crisis and not just prolong it.

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Past behavior is a fairly reliable predictor of future behavior. If the Congress was genuinely keen to rush this bailout to help main street and prevent the doomsday they are all predicting, they'd have done something about the very obvious housing bubble and other contributing factors before we ever got anywhere near to these circumstances.

The blame everything on Bush mantra(I would never suggest he's blameless) has gotten this country into bigger messes than Bush ever could have. That mantra is hard evidence the public has been successfully trained to take their eye off the ball--the key ball being Congress, where laws are made and the impeachments carried out. Without the approval of Congress, Bush could not have done nearly as much damage as he did. This rushed bailout is just the latest, blatant example.

Likewise, believing that one President is going to save the day is the flip side of the same silly coin--and unless there is major public pressure and participation by all Americans, a great president is pure fantasy.

Trite, but tried and true: in times of crisis, cool heads should prevail---the sort of heads who step back and take a careful look at options before they make huge decisions (the same cool people who take preventative actions to avoid problems like the mortgage meltdown; you will know them by the results they produce and not what they say) Of course the Congressional leadership tried hard to preempt this common sense argument by saying the nukes were already on the way and there is no time for deliberation.(as has been said, this is sort of like Bush's preemption argument gone economic)

The "masterminds" you (Paul W above) refer to may take the money and run, but they need hundreds in Congress to succeed in ramming the latest morph of the bailout. So there will be plenty of accountable people from Congress who will come up for reelection in the future. Then voters will decide whether to vote them out for any pathological haste, misplaced histrionics or chronically defective policies.

I'm sure the savvier constituencies who are catching on to unscrupulous reps will also be watching out for more of the same who are currently being groomed to step in to any vulnerable seats.

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The bailout is working my friends, and Dean Baker won't admit it. Dean Baker said it wouldn't work and he was wrong. I was right!

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It's a bit silly to wave the threat of resignation at those who will be out of office by January isn't it? It's the roar of the proverbial Derivative Tiger. Now, the guillotine, on the other hand.....

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