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The Almost-Done Deal, and the Era of Angry Populism

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The Senate will vote tonight; the House is scheduled to vote tomorrow morning. Will the deal fly? Probably. Wall Street's gyrations since Monday have scared the hell out of a number of holdouts, notwithstanding all the negative emails and phone calls they continue to receive from constituents.

An important distinction here. While more Americans are coming around to "supporting" the bailout bill, the vast majority still hate the idea of bailing out Wall Street. They're for the bailout bill now only because they fear that a failure to pass it will have worse consequences -- drying up credit at a time when Main Street is struggling. But make no mistake: America is mad as hell. They resent what they perceive as extortion by the Masters of the Universe.

Angry populism has always been a potent force in American politics. And
now, with wages dropping, jobs insecure, fuel and food and
health-insurance costs soaring, and millions of homes in jeopardy -- and
what's perceived to be a massive tax-payer bailout of some of the richest
people in the land -- angry populism is about to explode. McCain has
already tried to cast himself as an angry populist, even though he still
wants to give the very rich a bigger tax cut than George W. gave them, and
cut taxes on big corporations (oil companies alone would reap $1.2 billion
a year under McCain's plan). Barack Obama, whose plans for middle-class
tax relief and afforable health care will genuinely help America's middle
and working classes, has been expressing more indignation lately on behalf
of them. But anger doesn't come as easily to Obama as it does to McCain --
even though McCain seems quite ready to aim his anger anywhere and
everywhere.

Democrats should be angry populists, given their traditional role of
protecting and championing the underdogs in American politics, and
especially considering the absurdly wide gap that's opened up between the
rich and everyone else. But in recent years Democrats have ceded the
mantle to Republicans, who now mimic the faux populism of Sean Hannity and
other right-wing talk show demagogues. (The recent maneuvering in the
House over the bailout bill is really over this. House Democrats are
getting the same angry mail that House Republicans are receiving, and
don't want to be seen as lending their support to this ugly bill without
Republicans signing on.)

In fact, the bailout bill isn't really taxpayer supported. It will be
funded by additional federal debt, issued mostly to foreign governments --
especially the Chinese and in the Middle East. And, strictly speaking,
it's not even a bailout. The Treasury will buy and hold mortgage-backed
securities whose value is now unknown because there's no market for them,
until housing prices start rising again, by which time the securities
should be worth something -- perhaps even more than the Treasury pays for
them. (Note that there continues to be great confusion about the extent to
which the Treasury will hold a reverse auction, paying banks the minimum
price at which they're willing to sell the securities -- perhaps 20 cents
on the dollar -- or whether the Treasury will buy the securities outright
for their face values and take warrants or shares of stock in return.)

But whatever it's called and however it's financed, it's still an outrage.
America's foreign policy is made no more flexible by going into deeper
hock to the Chinese and the Middle East. And the deal still subjects
American taxpayers to some risk, especially if the housing market doesn't
bounce back for many years. Worse, the bill can't help but prop up the
earnings many Wall Street executives whose malfeasance, greed, and
stupidity got us into this mess in the first place. And it does nothing
for average Americans except avoid economic calamity. (The provision
ostensibly helping distressed homeowners is to be used at the discretion
of the Treasury Department, so it's mostly a sham.)

The larger economic outlook is not encouraging. All signs point to the
economy worsening, bailout or no bailout. Unemployment will continue to
rise. Median earnings will continue to drop, adjusted for inflation. More
Americans will lose their health insurance.

The Era of Angry Populism has only just begun. Let's hope Obama wins, and
is able to mobilize the anger into fierce pressure on Congress to get his
agenda enacted, as well as reform Wall Street and Washington.


108 Comments

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Here is a part of the recent IBD editorial that asks the a great question:

"The result of (Fannie's and Freddie's) rapid growth unconstrained by market forces and a weak regulator was years of mismanagement, flagrant earnings manipulation, and systems-and-controls problems.

Managements of both companies were forced out, earnings were misstated by an estimated $16 billion, fines exceeding one-half billion dollars were imposed, and remedial costs will exceed $2 billion."

Yet Congress did nothing. Fannie and Freddie continued to enjoy a virtual monopoly of the housing finance market, holding nearly half the nation's $12 trillion in mortgage assets in 2007.

And what happened to Fannie's and Freddie's top executives, almost all with deep ties to the Democratic Party?

Did they get perp-walked to prison like WorldCom's Bernie Ebbers, Tyco's Dennis Koslowski, Adelphia's John Rigas, ImClone's Sam Waksal, or any of the others who did time for corporate misdeeds in the early 2000s?

No. Jim Johnson, former Walter Mondale aide, became head of Barack Obama's vice presidential search committee. Franklin Raines, who headed Fannie from 1998 to 2004, the years of its worst excesses, pocketed nearly $100 million in pay and bonuses from Fannie. He, too, became an adviser to Obama.

Other Fannie-Freddie alumni did equally well.

Rep. Rahm Emanuel has been front and center in crafting a new rescue bill. Ex-Clinton Justice official Jamie Gorelick careens from career catastrophe to catastrophe, and still gets top jobs. It pays to have ties.

Meanwhile, as previously documented, Rep. Barney Frank and Sen. Chris Dodd repeatedly thwarted reforms. Yet today they stand front-and-center as Democrats try to "fix" a problem they created.

As such, any investigation into Fannie and Freddie must include Congress, both current and past.

There's lots of evidence that the two mortgage giants had become little more than taxpayer-guaranteed front companies for Democrats, who used them to reward supporters with cheap loans and to provide jobs for out-of-work politicians."

Wow. Imagine if Enron executives had done this, oh wait, they did and went to jail!

>Wow. Imagine if Enron executives had done this, oh wait, they did and went to jail!

There's dumb, and there's loony, and this conspiracy theory is in the latter category.

Congress doesn't prosecute criminal cases. Every single one of those Enron executives was prosecuted by the Bush Justice Department.

Especially given everything that's come out about DOJ's illegal pro-Republican bias under the Bush Administration, it's just nutty to suppose they would go after their Republican friends at Enron, but give any Democrats a pass.

Get real.

Good point.

Do you believe Bush will proscute Barney and Chris and all the Freddie and Fannie executives who made millions, while falsifying the books?

Vintage club, you really have no understanding of the Fannie Freddie debate, esepcially as it transpired in the boom to bust years just after the millenium, and you seem to have even less understanding of their weird exactly private not exactly public status.

Therer's nothing worse than when know nothings shout really loud.

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Investors Business Daily is the Rush Limbaugh of the business world. Unbiased promotion of news and understanding is not a motivating factor.

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Bingo.

VintageClub is clearly an IBD ditto-head.

No question there's blame to go around, and both political parties have a share. But I encourage you to read on here at TPM, VC, and soak up a little bit of perspective.

-- ARG

Franklin Raines, who headed Fannie from 1998 to 2004, the years of its worst excesses, pocketed nearly $100 million in pay and bonuses from Fannie. He, too, became an adviser to Obama.

That's been a popular canard of the McCain campaign, and it's false because Franklin Raines has NOT been an advisor to the Obama. The the Obama campaign, Raines, and the Washington Post (which is usually cited as the source) have all denied the claim.

Meanwhile, the McCain campaign is headed by Rick Davis, whose lobbying firm was receiving $15,000/month from Fannie Mae for nobody-knows-why until August.

Suggestion to the McCain campaign and McCain supporters: People who live in glass houses ....

Ah, IBD. The guy who came up with the "CANSLIM" method of picking stocks ... which didn't work, but did get him enough suckers er I mean subscribers that he was able to make money printing a newsletter. :-)

Interresting that you only name Democrats, so I'd say this is a fine piece of propaganda, unworthy of this blog.

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Back in the 50s Milton Berle had a TV show and one of the acts was a guy named Sid something or other.

This guy, dressed like a carnival barker, would come on stage with a suitcase and a collapsable table. He would open the table and put the suitcase on top and open it. He would then start his spiel selling his wares.

One thing about this act always stuck with me, and I'm reminded of it everytime I see the Congress pull a stunt like the Senate is pulling with the bailout. After a minute or two into his act selling his wares he would pull up his sleeves and say to the audience:

"OK, YA SAY YA WANT MORE FOR YOUR MONEY, TELL YA WHAT I'M GONNA DO....."

Its deja vu all over again.

I so sick of this BS. Congress should never agree to take worthless assets. Its just free money to the wealthy, who cheated. Basically the wealthy in this country knew this bailout would happen. So they pumped the value of the assets then sold them via the bailout to the government. Crooks the whole lot.... Period. STOP THIS MADNESS!!!!!!

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They're not worthless, they're temporarily unmarketable. There's a difference. The government is injecting liquidity to replace illiquidity. I think Reich is right and that there's a good chance the government will make a profit on this. Read what Buffett said about it.

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It's amazing to me, a socialist, that so many people are suddenly waking up to the fact that there are (and always have been) obscenely wealthy people in this country. We have been 'bailing' them out, subsidizing them, financially enabling them, one way or another for years.

The only difference now is that their near-criminal skulduggery has become today's news. Until we're willing to take a long, hard look at our economic system, giant warts and all, business will go on as usual, and as usual we'll take it in the neck.

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The Treasury will buy and hold mortgage-backed
securities . . . .
Robert Reich

And lots of other instruments like CDSs, CDOs, SIVs, and whatever other derivatives happen to be around, yes?

Professor Reich seems to have been reading the headlines. Got to drill down, baby.

And just where are you getting your information that all the paper out there is worhtless, Ellen? On the quie vive with Vikram Pandit, are you?

Or do you also just read headlines?

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Try, here, dear.

I'll leave it to you to locate the applicable provision.

That wasn't the question. The question was: "where are you getting your information that all the paper out there is worthless?"

As far as I can tell from most reporting, the problem is the value is unknown because they are so intertwined. To be sure, some of the paper will be worth less than the cost of the transaction, but much of it should be worth something. Perhaps a lot.

Not saying this is the best way to fix this problem, but it does seem to be the best we can actually get passed in the current environment and doing nothing is clearly not an option.

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Yeah, tell us everything you know about all this worthless paper we'll be buying. Give us the inside scoop. Because from what I can tell, even the financial experts don't know how to value much of it. So, clearly, you're privy to some seriously inside info. Spill the beans, professor.

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The phrase "worthless paper" which has gotten you two Kool Aid drinkers so exercised isn't mine.

It's anna am's a/k/a Ms. Crane. Go talk to her about it.

Note for the readerly challenged among us: I simply pointed out that the Secretary of the Treasury is authorized, under the provisions of the bill, to buy many types of assets in addition to MBSs.

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You're currently in your manic phase, right? How long does that last, exactly?

Rather than blaming Barney Frank and the Democrats for the financial collapse under the Bush administration, Bill Fleckenstein, who wrote a book on our former Fed chairman, blames Alan Greenspan:

Alan Greenspan is the man who, during his nearly 20 years in charge at the Fed, did the most to help create the predicament that is our decimated financial system and warped economy.


The sorry state that we find ourselves in is a function of the Fed's interest-rate-targeting policies. More specifically, it was caused by the policies of Alan Greenspan, the Fed chief from 1987 to 2006.....

.........When Greenspan was in office he went to great lengths to suggest that housing couldn't experience a bubble. And, as The Journal pointed out, he also tried to make the case in 2004, when many of us were already certain a disastrous bubble was in full bloom, that "a national severe price distortion seems most unlikely in the United States, given its size and diversity."

This illustrates my strongly held (and well-documented) view that when it comes to matters of economics, Greenspan is utterly clueless and unable to learn from his mistakes.

link to Fleckenstein articles on MSN:

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Commentary/ByAuthor/BillFleckenstein.aspx

He wasn't clueless, but he was ideological. Conservatives have been highly motivated to make "free markets" real, with the purpose to make the status of the upper classes more intrenched than ever. They succeeded beyond their wildest dreams. The result is going to be unprecedented loss of living standards for middle and lower income peoples. This was the desired result. The law does not apply to them, they make the law.

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I agree.

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My distaste for Alan Greenspan dates back to the time of his 1985 "seasoned and expert" letter written on behalf of Charles Keating; thus, it pains me to come to the defense of the old coot.

Greenspan did keep the Fed funds rate too low for too long (unless you we're Bush II trying to get reelected with Greenspan's help). But low interest rates -- even if they caused or contributed to the housing price bubble -- didn't cause our current difficulties (whatever they may be).

Simply put, investment banks packaged mortgage loans and grossly overpriced the resulting securitized products. They were assisted in their fraud* by rating agencies whose income growth was dependent upon being hired to rate the investment banks' products.

If you can demonstrate that Greenspan ought to have detected the fraud and put a stop to it and chose not to do so, then, his responsibility is clear. So --

Can you?

* A lengthy, continuous pattern of negligence suggests intentionality -- here, fraud.

One piece of this that still leaves me with a bad taste in my mouth: Why aren't more people comfortable with calling it fraud?

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The simple answer is that all the people who know what went on are managers of other people's money who have violated minimum fiduciary standards and are in mum's-the-word, CYA mode, currently.

Every mortgage placed in a pool and embedded in a MBS came with an application file, attached. No one, neither the packagers nor the fiduciaries who purchased the instruments, did "due diligence." It was not in their financial interests to do so, and --

They had a fall-back excuse -- black box algorithms. Now, they claim that these algorithms were unsound but that at the time, no one knew (or could have known) that to be the case.

Maybe, they're right, but maybe, financial forensics would show that they knew that what they were putting in those black boxes was unsound. And the burden of proof is upon them.

Trials have a way of clearing up confusion.

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It's always due diligence. But oversight of those s'posed to be doing due diligence is always waaay behind the eightball (all those damn computers these days.) I know, been taking the USPAP test every five years since the S & L crisis, and laughing at it while doing so, along with colleagues.

I am beginning to think that for anything to work we must pay for each party Congress to have their own advisors equivalent to the chairman of the Fed, if only to offer translation and alternative narratives of what is going on....

"Fraud" is really unfair. It's more of a consensual illusion of banks, rating agencies, and investors. The "smartest guys in the room" spread the risk around to so many counter-parties that were "too big to fail" that no one took a serious look at the underlying assets. Until it was too late.

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Well, that's the conventional answer -- the excuse du jour.

But, is it true?

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Can I prove Greenspan knew about the fraud?
Almost.
My only evidence (so far) is this:

In 2003, I was a just a computer programmer earning $95K/year in Washington DC, but I could not buy a condo because (despite being in the top 10% of income earners) I was priced out.
Why?

Because I was looking at "traditional (90/15/5) mortgages, but in 2003 50% of all homes bought in DC were purchased using negative amortization ARMS, because that was the only way the borrowers could qualify.

My point:
No one with even a modicum of sense thought those borrowers could make the payments once the adjustments began.
Anyone who could do basic algebra, and who looked at the conditions of those mortgages knew those mortgages were going to be defaulted within 3 to 5 years.
So, either Greenspan was :
1. asleep at the wheel
2. incapable of doing basic math
or 3. perpetuating fraud.

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You make some good points and they do go some way, by implication, toward convicting Greenspan -- at least of being partially responsible.

If you want further support for your position, Google "Edward Gramlich."

You can play around with the question of what effect Gramlich's warnings to Greenspan about the lax underwriting standards subprime lenders were indulging in would or should have had on your average-every-day-type responsible Federal Reserve Chairman .

Note. I don't think your 2003 DC-Northern Virginia mortgage statistics are correct (I could well be wrong). Do you have a link to some report or other?

No one with even a modicum of sense thought those borrowers could make the payments once the adjustments began.
The theory (I would attribute it to some particular persons or groups if I had any idea whose theory it supposedly was, but I don't) was that these borrowers would refinance or sell before that point ... and since home prices only ever go up, and very fast at that, they would now be very far away from being underwater.

Obviously this theory is ridiculous—I thought so myself; I had sold my California house in 2002 and was worried that I might be too late (! I could have waited another two or three years and cleared at least another $100k)—but clearly some people bought into it.

It wasn't just the low interest rates (for clearly political reasons, as you point out.) Greenspan also refused to use the existing power of the fed to regulate the quality of the mortgages banks were issuing. Then he also encouraged the banks to create new and more risky types of mortgages. Finally he encouraged buyers to buy ARMs and other subprime garbage mortgages.

Alan Greenspan was not solely responsible for the housing bubble, but no one else is even close to him for the degree to which he created it and encouraged it.

It's a dead giveaway that he raised the fed rate to 6.5% in 2000 to slow the economy down. One of three clear factors that predict the change of party in a Presidential election year is an economic slowdown. By November 2004 Greenspan had the interest rate at 1.75% (to, of course, keep Bush in the White House.) But starting in February 2005 Greenspan began increasing the interest rate 1/4% per month for 17 consecutive months. That was what led to the mortgage defaults. CountryWide announced unprecedented defaults and foreclosures in early 2007, and they had watched them increase as Greenspan increased the interest rate.

Greenspan did more than anyone else to create and prolong the housing bubble, and he triggered the resulting mortgage crisis and credit crisis. His close friend Ayn Rand would be proud of him.

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You have a whole passel of criticisms (mostly justified), here.

ARMs for one. The issue is whether Americans are paying too much for mortgages because they're paying a premium for the put attached to the standard 30-year mortgage (the right to refinance the mortgage if rates go down). There are good arguments on both sides.

More interesting to me is the issue of the politicization of the Fed Chairman's position (setting interest rates; advising on fiscal policy, etc.)

The prime function of a central bank is to act as the lender of last resort (to replace J. P. Morgan holding court in his library, Sunday morning, October 20, 1907).

Maybe we should rid ourselves of the FOMC.

Get rid of the FOMC?

Now I know for certain. You're a libertarian pretending to be a progressive.

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No -- but I can see how you might think so.

I'd like to hear your arguments in support of the need to have a governmental organization setting interest rates -- as well as the costs and benefits of accepting that need.

P.S. To stay on this subthread while giving yourself adequate space, consider "reply buttoning" from ellen or DF way upthread.

I see no way possible to control the money supply without also controlling the interest rates. Maybe I'm missing something.

I also see no way possible to control the money supply without using a government agency which can enforce bank cooperation.

That would appear to make the FOMC or something essentially identical to it irreplaceable - unless you do adopt Libertarianism. Libertarianism is a synonym for idiocy, of course.

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As a blog discussion of the appropriateness of the range of Federal Reserve powers grows longer, the probability of a commenter being charged with libertarianism approaches one. Ellen's Law

Thanks for the tip on replaying upthread for more space. I'm going to put my response here to try to follow the thread and try to be brief. I neither want to belabor the point nor exaggerate my own knowledge, but a bit of background is in order.

The FOMC and the interest rate setting function of the Fed were put in place in the 1930's by Marriner Eckles as part of the New Deal reform package. The point of the Fed controlling interest rates is to moderate the boom and bust of the business cycle (to be "countercyclical").

Ever since then this function has been a particular bugbear of libertarian economists, even more so than other parts of the New Deal, as interference with divinely-guided market rates. The function has also become absolutely mainstream and is used by every central bank in the world.

The problem with our economy today is that government has played too small a role in recent years, not too large a role.

Thank you for this.

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Ah -- "to take away the punch bowl just as the party gets going." William McChesney Martin, Jr.

Except it hardly ever does, does it?

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Good big picture comment; I can think of some speechwriters that might want to take a look at it.

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Face it, recessions come and go in a free-market economy - if you buy one, you get the other free. Supported by politicians who didn't want even a little recession on their watches, Greenspan's occassional tweaking of the economy by playing with interest rates, among other machinations, not only postponed the inevitable recession, his actions resulted in them being accumulated. The day of reckoning has hit us and it was inevitable.

I live across the street from a mortagage broker who has made a ton of money from doing just that, brokering mortagages. He could care less whether they're sound, his only interest is collecting healthy fees when he sells them.

Greenspan, my mortage broker neighbor, the more than negligent auditors, the recession-phobic politicians...are all to blame.

I like the snowflake analogy. No snowflake in an avalanche ever feels responsible.

Greenspan, my mortage broker neighbor, the more than negligent auditors, the recession-phobic politicians...are all to blame.

That's equivalent to blaming equally Bush 41, Saddam Hussein and Timothy McVeigh for the Persian Gulf War. They did all participate, of course.

When you get that general you might as well include Bill Buckley, the John Birchers, Nixon, Reagan, Bill Clinton, Bush 43 and Phil Gramm. All had some responsibility for the current mess.

I still argue that no one else can even come close in overall responsibility to the Randian Libertarian economics school drop-out Alan Greenspan.

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I shouldn't have used the word 'blame.'

I think of it this way. It's like a number of consequential and seemingly inconsequential factors combine to rule the constellation of events and policies in such a way that what ensues becomes inevitable. The players in the drama, all of us, can be thought of as hardly more than playthings of a fate we've all had a part in bringing about.

I'm not letting Greenspan off the hook. I'm simply saying that he did not act in a vacuum, that those who did not challenge him, for whatever reason, along with those who benefitted from his policies can not be written off as guiltless.

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Reich, you said

"While more Americans are coming around to "supporting" the bailout bill, the vast majority still hate the idea of bailing out Wall Street. They're for the bailout bill now only because they fear that a failure to pass it will have worse consequences..."

What's your source? This is not what I've heard and it's not what I've seen on the blogs of all colors. I know the media clearly thinks they can decide for Americans what they are going to do before they are even doing it, and the MSM has been peddling this turnaround in public opinion stuff since before right after the bill failed in the house. Where'd you get your information?

you said:

"Let's hope Obama wins, and
is able to mobilize the anger into fierce pressure on Congress to get his
agenda enacted, as well as reform Wall Street and Washington."

No, only clever folks want foolish folks to keep hoping for the next time that never comes. No, let's hope that BEFORE this bill gets rammed through, Obama and a few in Congress have the sense to put the brakes on until it can be done carefully and in full view of the public.

Here is where to get the market price of all that worthless paper that Bush-Paulson wants the US government to buy: your personal securities broker!

Buy it by the wheelbarrow full, baby.

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One of the major goals of the bailout plan was to help Republicans get reelected and help McCain get elected. They are right on track for that. Since the Democrats "control" both houses of Congress, they will be perceived as the party that passed the giving of nearly a trillion dollars to the wealthy, as a futile gesture to stop them from shutting down the economy. Democrats in the House tried to share the blame for that by insisting on significant Republican support for the bill, but couldn't get it. So, they will pass it without that support.

Look for this to be the #1 issue for the next few weeks before the election. It may even be enough to get McCain elected.

Of course it will do nothing for the economy, other than making the top 0.1% more wealthy, but we were going to have a severe, long lasting recession in any case. At least this way Obama won't be able to pass universal health care or a new technologies industry bill - icing on the cake for the Republicans.

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So, Hop,

What's the down side?

So, burn down the village to save it from unscrupulous moneychangers? Doesn't seem make too much sense to me.

This bill may keep some rich people from losing lots of money, but it also staggers it out past the election and the start of a new administration and it isn't a no-strings attached plan any longer.

We can't punish Wall Street without punishing ourselves. Put the fire out and then prosecute the arsonist, not the other way around.

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The alternative, according to Republican dogma, is to let the market settle it. If more banks fail, other banks will benefit by the added business. It is unreal to insist that today we have a healthy economy, with sound fundamentals, and we must save it. We have a badly diseased economy, and without corrective actions, medicine and surgery, that economy will remain badly diseased.

Now was the time to spend a couple of weeks determining the appropriate medicine and surgery, it was not the time to feed salted fish eggs and dead cow parts to the patient.

A stock market drop of 20% would have left me in tears, but this gift of nearly a trillion dollars of borrowed money isn't likely to stop that drop anyway. All we are doing is wasting precious time.

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So in terms of drilling down, I can comment on one aspect of the Fannie/Freddie piece, and I just want to make ABSOLUTELY SURE everyone understands this particular specific. It's part of the reason I think that taxpayers should rescue bad mortgages (and the possibly bad people who entered into them) rather than handing money straight to the people who set this thing up. In a lesser of two evils scenario, helping people pay off crazy mortgages is definitely better than buying the debt that the crazy mortgages represent.

Many mortgages (not necessarily subprime but questionable/no doc) undertaken during the height of the housing bubble, were insured/guaranteed by Fannie Mae, which the taxpayers now effectively own. The way these mortgages work is that if the homeowner defaults, the loan servicer can foreclose on what is now presumably a near-worthless piece of property, then turn around and get the FULL ORIGINAL RETAIL PRICE of the property plus interest, from Fannie Mae (or from you the taxpayers depending on how you look at it) because Fannie Mae insured the loan and the Republicans were dumb (or smart) enough to take Fannie Mae on without conditions.

To add insult to taxpayer injury, then the loan servicer can sell the property and add the proceeds to whatever it makes. Yay! Selling gutted houses for pennies on the original dollar is fun!

The short story here is that taxpayers are about to bail out (or keep in business) the companies who not only set this up, but who may well spend the next few years billing taxpayers AT FULL RETAIL VALUE, for mortgages undertaken during the housing bubble! And the taxpayers won't even own the houses.

Wondering why no loan servicers seem to want to write down mortgage principals? This is why. Forcing people into foreclosure is a huge cash cow if the mortgage was guaranteed. And forcing subprime lenders and pre-bubble lenders into foreclosure chums the waters--i.e makes it more likely that more of those juicy bubble prime loans will drop into foreclosure too.

Is it any wonder taxpayers have a bad feeling about this bill?

If I'm wrong about how this works, or if there are only, like, three of these loans on the planet, please enlighten me, but I think taxpayers have a right to be wondering what the heck our elected officials are doing "fixing the credit crunch" instead of taking care of bad mortgages on behalf of everyone.

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I don't know Fannie and Freddie's current involvement in subprime and Alt-A loans (originally, Wall Street's problem only). As Dow Jones reported, as of the beginning of the subprime crisis, "Fannie Mae was only involved marginally in guaranteeing subprime loans, while Freddie Mac had sidestepped the market altogether."

Now, it is the case that after June 2007 the Democrats in Congress, attempting to keep home prices elevated, put pressure on the GSEs to get involved.

How much of this junk did Fannie and Freddie buy up?

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The kind of FNMA-guaranteed loans in the example above were considered prime, not subprime. (I think maybe this is not well-known.)

Anyone with a high credit score and a high loan-to-value ratio on a property could buy it with a no-doc or stated income loan, and get 5 years of interest only at a very low rate. This type of loan was classified as "prime" not subprime. Apparently this type of borrower wasn't classified as high risk.

It wasn't hard to get your chosen loan company's appraiser to appraise properties at high values. Heck, prices were up! So were appraisals.

Problem was that these loans reset like all the other loans, and when neighborhoods tanked these "prime" mortgages tanked also. Now the taxpayer is on the hook for the full amount via the FNMA guarantee, and the servicers have no incentive to write the mortgage down because they can get the full retail from the taxpayer.

I tried to find out the value of the no-doc and stated income "prime" loans guaranteed by Fannie and Freddie but was unable to figure it out.

Today Bernie Sanders offered an amendment that would make the bailout more palatable.

Tax most those who benefit most.

Am astonishingly simple concept.

(LPAC)--Lyndon LaRouche responded promptly to the House of Representatives' defeat of the Paulson bailout swindle, declaring this afternoon that ``I am on the case. Now, with the defeat of the bailout scheme, the way is open for my own three-step recovery plan, based on a bankruptcy reorganization of the hopelessly gone post-Bretton Woods speculative system. I shall present my action plan during my October 1, 2008 international webcast.'' Internet participants were able to submit questions to Mr. LaRouche, during the three-hour event, which has been archived with links now made available at

http://www.larouchepac.com/news/2008/10/01/larouche-webcast-now-more-ever-big-four.html

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The Senate passed a bill that is very close to the original bailout bill. So, now we get to watch the old Congressional Double Play in action. It goes like this:

Tomorrow or Friday the House will pass a populist version of a bailout bill, which all members can point to with pride, thus protecting their seats in the coming election. After that comes the Conference Committee, which in theory reconciles the differences between the two bills, but in practice it will strip out all of the provisions that the Wall Street Gamblers object to, then both houses will quickly pass that version, with very little news coverage.

The result will be that the moneyed class gets what they wanted - more money, and they get it without harming the reelection prospects of any members of Congress. (Senate seats are almost guaranteed safe in any case.)

Ok? You can stop bending over now. Wasn't that enjoyable?

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When Greenspan was in the private market, in the 80s, he wasn't so good at predicting either what the Fed would do or where the market was going.

As Fed chairman he has never seen a bubble that he didn't promote or, ironically, a burst he didn't misuse Keynesian economics to over promote.

The succeeding bubbles of 1991, 2001 and 2007 have accumulated debt and poor capital ratios to a level that now can't be extended. Greenspan goes down as a loser chairman. Bernanke is no better. He has no practical clue.

It's all pretty simple and it's about banking capital and capital ratios. Not anything I've heard our legislators talk about!

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The US Senate's passage this evening of a "rescue" that no one, not even the strongest proponents of the bill, says is guaranteed to stop an economic meltdown is not hing short of a total discrace. They should hang their heads in shame. Instead those beind it are all puffed up and proud of performing so dutifully their jobs as lackies of the richest, most powerful, and perhaps most corrupt interests in the nation.

While most of the 24 who voted against this criminal raid on the treasury were Republicans, I noted several Democrats in opposition who I have some respect for. Senator Sanders of Vermont was one. Sen. Wyden of Oregon was another as was Sen. Tester of Montana. And Senator Feingold also voted against. Opposition from these people means something to me. I pray that the voice of the people rises up in a cacophony that terrifies every member of the house and leads to a second defeat of this burglary bill on Friday.

The progressive voices in Congress need to start demanding a straightforward, clean bill that gets ownership in return for the capital infusions banks receive and that also supplies direct relief to homeowners that will lower and fix the interests rates on their homes and keep the mortgage market stable albeit less profitable than the greedy conmen of Wall Street had been hoping. Until then, there should be no bill passed at all. The dire predicitons and flat out lies and distortions being told in order to extort pssage of this bill need to be ignored. The sky will not fall and the difference between a recession vs a depression does not depend upon passage of this bill. If this current outrageous bill is stopped it will not only not harm the American people it will benefit them.

I don't have the time (probably not he expertise, either) to really get into the "blame" part of the current financial crisis right now, but I can discuss "Occam's Razor". "OR" is the notion (simply put)that the more OBVIOUS possibilities for causing an effect are more likely to be at fault than the less obvious possibilities.(Medical school aphorism: When you hear hoofbeats, think "horses", not "zebras").

I saw someone somewhere the other day positing that something or other from the CARTER Administration was the cause of this current problem: Whatever they were talking about apparently layed there dormant for 30-odd years, and then blew up in our faces 2 or 3 weeks ago.

Not according to Occam: Much more likely (politically speaking)to have something to do with 8 years of a not-real-bright GOP White House, and 12 of the last 14 years of a GOP Congressional majority.

Yep, horses, not zebras...

Part of what inflames hostility between the Left and the Right is the tendency to say "This is YOUR fault not ours!"

The last week or two should be more than enough indication that Republicans and Democrats both played some part in this debacle.

To me, it doesn't really matter whose fault this is ... I want someone to make sure it never happens again.

Unfortunately, it appears that we have hundreds spineless jellyfish representing us in Congress. And even more distressing they are lead by incompetent or self-serving egomaniacs.

I don't support this bailout in its current form. If it fails, I will not be voting for the Democratic incumbent come primary season in 2010.

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Watch! Tomorrow the DJ Average will shoot up about 500 points in the first hour of trading, then the smart investors will sell out, and by the end of the day the market will be down about 100 - 200. So, one benefit of this bailout (for the wealthy) is to give them a chance for one more killing on the market before it all goes to Hell.

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In fact, the bailout bill isn't really taxpayer supported. It will be funded by additional federal debt, issued mostly to foreign governments -- especially the Chinese and in the Middle East.

And as you wisely point out, our foreign policy towards China and the Middle East is altered again because they will hold more of our debt. As easily as the Congressional Democrats folded on this issue, I'm not optimistic that they will spearhead any reform agenda driven by anger over this disaster. I only hope that an Obama Administration will push through strong reforms on Wall Street and reduce the gap between rich and poor. The voters have their say on November 4th and we'll see who gets the blame.

I hope Mr. Reich is right. As The Clash sang it, "Anger is a power, if you know that you can use it."

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Here's an interesting argument for anyone who needs support for his or her conclusion that we are ruled by fools.

Simply put, the argument says that if Paulson really wanted to help the economy -- that is, provide working capital for businesses (oh, my God; the banks aren't loaning!) -- he couldn't have chosen a worse method.
Why?

Ordinary businesses borrow working capital (payrolls, inventory, seller financing) from banks. The banks get the funds to loan out from commercial money market accounts.

But anxious investors have been putting their funds in treasury/agency money market accounts and those types of funds don't loan money to banks.

Of course with the increased demand for government paper from those funds, rates have gotten very low. Ordinarily, it would be expected that investors would move their government money market funds over to commercial money market funds to get the higher rates. Then, these commercial money market funds will loan to the banks which will loan to the businesses.

But Paulson's about to sell $350 billion of what will be short term USTs.

The result? Rates on government money market funds will rise; investors will stay in those funds; assets of commercial money market funds won't increase; and there won't be more money available to the banks to loan out to businesses.

Ah, those old unintended consequences.

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You may be right about this. I am convinced this isn't the best fix for this, though I am not sure what is. But I stick to my point. The $700 billion will not be buying worthless securities, but unmarketable securities.

Why has there been so little discussion about the government refinancing the underlying mortgages? Have we abandoned the goal of affordable housing for everyone?

One thing about the Great Depression, we all were a lot closer to the land back then. Many got kicked off their land, but many more rode it out on the land with a 2 row plow, and a mule. My father's family for example.

This bust is going to be very nasty, and it's going to go down hill fast.

It's no accident that Campbell's Soup stock is rising.

To date, our misadventure into Iraq has an estimated price tag of about $700 billion. What a coincidence, that's the cost of the bailout.

Go figure.

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Part of the reason people are so angry is because this was framed wrong from the start. This bill has nothing to do with bailing out Wall Street. It's about bailing out financial institutions. Banks. Not Wall Street.

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Two weeks and you still don't get it. It's about how not whether.

Some people are simply uneducable.

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? Excuse me, have we met?

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No.

Thank God!

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What crawled up your ass and died, Queenie?

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After almost 8 years:"They resent what they perceive as extortion by the Masters of the Universe"
Don't like that term masters of the universe but we all get the point.
But why after all this time? Is it because this was so out front? As if the selling of the desert mess with fear wasn't?
Don't ever forget dickman planned all this in secret from the start using the same playbook as kenron lay, the guru of greed.
No more need to wonder why it was all done in secret right from the start.

I supported the Sanders version and emailed my Senators (Durbin and Obama) daily. My problems with this bill are:
1) Unless I missed something, Obama's proposal for an independent commission to oversee management of the money was NOT included. Instead, the same people who brought us this crisis (Paulson, Cox, other Bush appointees) are the oversight. This is ludicrous. (Please correct me if I'm wrong.)
2) The Chinese will now carry even more of our debt, which I consider to be a serious national security concern.
3) There are no tax increases for the wealthy, as porposed by Sanders, so essentially the rich will just get richer.

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The people of this great republic, constituting the polis, are totally ignorant and uninformed. Maybe it's not their fault, there are too many problems to deal with - health care, diminishing wealth, etc. Who knows what a short sale is, or a CMO, or the FDIC, or the impact on trying to support a $600,000 mortgage on an income of $50,000. Farmers know about beans and fertilizer; ranchers about cattle; and health care workers about illness.

The sad but most important thing is that they can not trust the political leaders who are supposed to be experts - after all, the President is the most important person in the land and who should know more about money and finance than the Secretary of the Treasury?

We the people are at a point of populist revolution and we should all hope that we are not the scapegoats we are looking for.

Talk about a "crap sandwhich".

What do the people of Colorado want? The more I study the electoral map, the more I'm convinced that no matter what else he is able to do, McCain can't win unless he wins Colorado. I'm curious to know if there is anything about the bailout that is particularly good or bad for Colorado voters.

Wall St. is a long way from Colorado.

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On the other hand, there's a lot of "Wall Streeters" with second home property in Colorado. Some big second homes. Some so big that locals can't afford to live certain places anymore, but were happy to build them. Big spending people in big second homes, including spending in lots of little boutiques run by locals.

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And how's the tourist and convention booking for winter going there?

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Some results for "Investment banks, Denver, Co":

Fiserv Investment Support Services, Wachovia Securities, Wells Fargo Bank, First National Bank of Colorado, Compass Bank: Annuity Investments, Lane Berry & Co, Silversmith Financial, Mc Donald Financial Group, Investment Trust Co, St. Charles Capital...

Denver, it's not exactly Thorton Wilder's "Our Town" anymore. Of course, I'm sure the Vail crowd wouldn't dream of using those local yokels.

The IBD editorial page could easily be written by a high school student. It is the shallowest, one sided piece of shit rag I've ever read. The investment ideas are great. They should stick to that.

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Not to worry about those disgruntled citizens; the Northern Command has now officially designated military resources for domestic missions including "crowd control".

The boots are on the ground and the guns are pointed inward. Huzzah!

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It is a bailout, though. I don't think Reich should imply otherwise. We're being asked to take on the burden of a risk that the banks don't want. Sure, maybe the Treasury will make money on it but if the banks really believed that, they would just hang onto the securities. Regulators could just change the capitalization or reporting rules to allow the banks to hang on until the securities are worth something again.

Instead, we're being asked to do what the banks won't. If the banks are smarter than the Treasury then we are buying bad securities on margin and stand to lose way more than $700 billion.

So with a REAL Attorney General, let us hope that every current member of the bush administration who is not pardoned will go to jail!

Two core pieces of this problem that even a smart guy like Riech seems to be missing:

1) the housing market is NOT 'coming back' as folks peddling the 'we'll make the money back later' line either state or imply. The Housing bubble was one of three main causes of this problem. House prices will continue to go down -- of necessity.

2) The problems in the real 'main street' economy are central to the wall street problem. Even all the scare stories in the media are actually pointing to the need to fix this main street problem.

I agree with those upthread that lament the lack of progressive thinking in this Congress, which seems to have so utterly failed to produce a plan that focuses on the problems faced by average Americans. Primarily, how to deal with the millions of bad mortgages out there. Nor have they produced a plan that reforms this house of mirrors of a system that piles credit on credit without accountability or risk. It is a shame this has occurred so close to Election Day, because it has severely limited Sen. Obama's options. I can easily see Senator Obama being one of those pushing a different sort of plan, and I can easily see him as one of the "NO" votes had he not been running for President. He is of course, as we are What troubles me is precisely that. He played it safe because the political risks around this issue were so great. This was the ultimate situation he could not control. So he played it as safe as possible, and now must hope this plan has a positive impact. The only saving grave here is McCain's "YES" vote. I fully expected him to take one more wild swing at it, and vote no. Imagine if he had. He could be out there on a limb, railing like a populist right now, and would look like a genius should the economy continue to sink. Luckily, he too is a part and parcel of this Corporate Welfare State and couldn't abandon his pals.

I am of the mind that something had to be done, but I can't pretend to understand enough about the problem to know precisely what that should be. There is something fundamentally disconcerting though, that this plan focuses on the financial markets, and those that run them, and is heralded as the only way to fix the problem. Are we so beholden to this financial system that Main St. is just a hapless bystander? Wouldn't a plan that addresses the problem, mortgage defaults, be the best solution? Shouldn't we let Goldman, Merrill, etc. fail, and dispense with this entire way of doing business? Are we so linked up in this, and living so far above our means, that we are looking at an inevitable and painful retraction?

This makes me very worried about the future. People over 60 own 50% of all equities, and they are losing value quickly. This places an ever greater burden on Social Security and a younger generation to pick up the slack. Demographics show a huge influx of Baby Boomers retiring over the next 15-20 years, and the group of Gen X and Gen Y'ers are failing to outpace their parents success. This country is in for a very difficult time. I am praying for an Obama victory and then I plan on being very loud in asking him to deliver on that "change" he has made the cornerstone of his campaign.

Sorry for poor editing. Hope I'm not totally illegible.

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"the bailout bill isn't really taxpayer supported"

So who covers the interest on the debt?

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Don't look at me. I don't make enough money to contribute enough to the US Treasury to pay for the paper clips.

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Maybe we can tax that guy behind the tree to oay for it all!

I just realized, if the Congress spends more each year than revenues, we don't have any extra money to spend.

Where will they find the $700 billion? China & Saudia Arabia, of course.

A US Senator said yesterday that the Chinese and Saudis are pressuring Bush to do the bailout or they won't buy any more treasuries and we'll have to live within our means!

Imagine that.

W has spent his entire "Presidency" as Prince Bandar's willing whore. He bankrupted this country to eliminate Saddam Hussein, the Saudis' key regional threat, and it's no coincidence the cost of oil has skyrocketed under Bandar, er, W. (And of course there were little things, like the Bin Laden relatives who got to fly out of this country when all other planes were grounded, post 9/11.) The fact that our economic policy is now being written even more explicitly by the Saudis comes as no surprise, alas.

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Mr. Reich,

I really respect your opinion, but the confusion about whether the Treasury will hold reverse auctions or buy securities outright exists because the bills I've seen don't say. They leave the question up to Paulson.

It's not clear to me that he can't even buy credit default swaps with this money if he wants as long as the swaps are based on mortgage securities.

Plus, alot of these securities, as I understand it, have been run up in price so far beyond what they could ever be worth that even 50 cents on the dollar would be paying too much.

As you say, there's no market for these things and so no real price for them, which means that no matter what we pay, it's really going to be nothing more than a price that was pulled out of thin air.

Finally, what does this really do to address the problem of derivites, which is the $400 trillion elephant (worldwide) that few news medias types outside financial publications and angry bloggers are talking about.

I frankly think it won't work and it will make things worse by putting us further in debt. Can you tell me why I'm wrong?

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"the bailout bill isn't really taxpayer supported"
At a 5% annual rate, the GROSS carrying cost to the taxpayers will be about $3 Billion per month in interest on $700 billion (and you know that $700 billion is only for phase 1 ...).
The NET carrying cost to the taxpayer will be less than that, of course, assuming that the government buys mortages and other loans that aren't completely worthless - - that still have SOME monthly payments coming in - - but there's no way that Hank Paulson's Hanky Panky Bank is gonna be profitable. If it had a good chance of being profitable, the private sector would be doing it.

$863,654,000,000 Total Amount of Tax Cuts Enacted Since Fiscal Year 2003

$783,890,000,000 Total Amount of Additional Tax Cuts to be Returned to Taxpayers Through 2010

http://tncwatch.com/2006/10/results-of-2003-bush-tax-cuts.html

1.7 trillion dollars can buy a lot of things. Nealth care, social security, etc. These numbers are only to 2006 so you can double it by 2009. Let the top one percent go back to loop holes.

And speaking of loopholes, Reagan increased taxes on the middle class when he took away tax deductions for credit card interest. Remeber?

I think the outrage is based on a growing awareness that the general trend of things is to benefit the rich, influential, and powerful at the expense and/or exclusion of everyone else. We're not all invited to the party.

I don't think that who's to blame is really relevant to the outraged. I believe the outrage is fueled by the sentiment that all the perceived "elites" are responsible.

One of the ways that "the people" have been controlled was with the promise that they too could aspire and attain membership in the "elite' club and reap the benefits.

"The people" are starting to understand that by and large that is a myth and that actually their destiny is probably more "downward" then "up."

Once that dream/myth is shattered anger sets in - totally justified.

Like Enron serving as the "sacrificial lamb" to quell the masses once too much light had been cast on the crimes and the powers that be were forced to do something, I predict that in this latest bambozzlement there will be a few "bones" tossed to quiet the outraged in the form of some sort of "relief" for the little guys and another "lamb" or two going down.

All of it will amount to very little as business will eventually go on as before.

An interesting aside revealed on "Democracy Now" that Obama told Democrat "elites" that he didn't want bankruptcy terms for homeowers changed or addressed in this "bailout" bill.

Now why would he say that?

As I've been sayig "forever" - the Democrats and the Republicans aren't two different sides of the same coin, they are just two different parts of the same side of the coin.

"The people," I believe, are starting to understand just how screwed they really are.

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I give the people more credit than that.

If Dodd and Franks had stood up and told them that the big banks are in trouble and that they have to be recapitalized and that the way they were going to do it was either 1) by loaning the banks the money at interest or 2) by taking an equity position, I doubt there would have been the outrage we've seen.*

I think the people understand that this bailout is a give-away to Wall Street banks.

* They might have had to add a restriction on senior bank executive compensation.

Ah, "the people." My history professor cautioned when politicians invoked the pee-pul. That was before Internet days, however.

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Sir, here is what I want to know.

You are an Obama economic adviser.

1) What is the internal campaign discussion about this since Obama has come out very very strongly for this bill. Why have your arguments failed to sway him and what does that tell you about him?

2)In light of 1, why would Obama mobilize angry populists?

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This is the end of the road for me. I'm voting for Nader and against everyone down ticket that votes for this. Bernie Sanders had a perfectly sane plan, but the so called Democrats couldn't SFU until they passed the Bush/Paulson boondoggle. Not a dimes worth of difference between the two parties. FISA, vote and funding for the war, welfare reform for babies but not corporations, NAFTA and backroom trade deals, media consolidation, MCA, Patriot Act, screw em all.

Exactly, dkmich!

dkmich is right.

I will take an honest Markist over all these squishy Dem and Repub liars who say they are for the "free market" and then regulate and tax us all into the rice fields!

For a long time modern liberalism has been tied specifically to SOCIAL liberalism, and severed from the the baser human needs of the common populace. After all, the populace as a whole is pretty iffy when it comes to issues of tolerance and social harmony. So that up to now, the only liberals our Congressmen and Congresswomen have taken very seriously were the social liberals, especially ones packing large bank accounts.

Populism was dismissed as a synonym for racism and no-nothingism, and so racists and no-nothings have had the field all to themselves.

Yet the Wall Street stars that wrote checks to homeless charities and banned discrimination based on color and gender in their firms have relentlessly promoted a "fairer" type of discrimination, one that targeted a wide array of people in a way not categorizable by race or ethnicity, religion or sexuality. This was - is - a discrimination based on the presence or absence of the arcane skills solely required in a financial meritocracy. Adherence to this narrow set of principals was relentlessly promoted as the key to all economic life, even as economic life has grown to encompass every waking hour.

A story is told about a high-powered liberal attorney in Houston of the go-go 90's. At the time his right hand man was gay, and when the man's lover of twenty years died, the attorney dealt with this HR problem the way he dealt with every other. His assistant got the day of the funeral off. Only. He was to be in the very next.

Enlightenment, it seems, ends at the bottom line in the go-go world.

Those left behind in this world have only themselves to blame, in the go-go view, and so its promoters on the liberal side continue to look themselves in the mirror and praise themselves as good idealistic citizens. These are, after all, not the same as the right-wing nuts who profit by a cruder application of the very same principals.

Our champions hire and reward ANYONE that works relentlessly to enrich them, and in return they promote tolerance in and out of the workplace, universal health-care (when the numbers work out in their favor), and much that is good. Who can fault them?

I wonder if financial ruin might be a cure for such vanity?

Unfortunately, the ruin would have to be shared by all. Yet, in my mind, I toy with the notion, and I am afraid others do as well.

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