Senators, Beware!
I took a deep breath before writing here last night that a second House bailout bill will deserve to die like the first, even if it gets emergency medical assistance from a United States Senate that is scheduled to rush through a package this evening. (Yes, there's still time to call your Senators, whose phone numbers are at the end of this post). I was expecting some in TPM's "shadow audience" to call me a populist demagogue.
Shadow audience? Beyond those who post comments are many who don't, and some among them are bankers, politicians, and others who never would. But I'm hearing from several of them directly, and their comments are surprising.
Charles R. Morris is neither a right-wing populist nor a leftie. He's a former vice-president of Chase Manhattan Bank and the author of many distinguished books, including this fall's The Trillion Dollar Meltdown and, decades ago, The Cost of Good Intentions, a book highly critical of New York Mayor John Lindsay's liberal administration (in which Morris had been deputy budget director).
This morning Morris wrote me to say he had reached much the same conclusion as I on the bailout, and I cite him because his own stunning assessment is up in The Washington Independent.
"How many votes would the bailout plan have gotten if the administration and the congressional leaders had told the truth -- that this is a bank bailout that won't prevent a recession or help homeowners?," Morris writes. "The bailout was a questionable idea at best, made worse by the ram-through attempt and the misleading sales pitch. And neither presidential candidate has any stake in delaying the start of a recession until he takes office, and gets stuck with the blame. So Congress did the right thing. It's time to let the bailout die."
Now that our House of Lords is about to do the wrong thing, it should also hear from a senior asset manager at a big investment bank, who wrote me this morning to say:
"The taxpayer should get the upside from recapitalizing the financial system. I see Buffet's deal with Goldman as an excellent example of how deals might be structured with preferred/convertible shares and sweetened further by enhanced voting rights. Right now no one knows the value of these toxic securities. That's why there aren't any bids. No matter how deep the discount, we have no way of being sure the price is right. Keep up the good fight."
An eminent, widely-read scholar of imperial booms and busts who has dabbled more than a little in policy intellection wrote to say, "Dear Jim, Absolutely agree; ANY variant of trickle-down stuff allows most of the water to remain in large catchment-areas like bankers' pockets.... [T]he cash could be used very differently...."
And Joseph LaPalombara, an emeritus professor of political science at Yale and a veteran observer of Italian politics, wrote that "When this crisis began to hit, the Italian parliament.... passed a measure that said something as simple as this: All banks... that had issued and were holding variable-rate mortgages, and that had raised the interest rates on them, were ordered immediately to return those mortgages to their initial rates....With punishment duly and equitably allotted among the financial institutions depending on how far their predatory lending had gone. I know of not a single member of Congress who has come up with anything like that."
I can already hear the anti-Italian jokes from Fox Newshounds, but that would miss Lapalombara's point: The old politics is in a meltdown alongside the credit markets:
"We have come to a pretty pass here," LaPalombara added, "when it is Newt Gingrich who is speaking the kind of truth to power that I might have expected to be coming from our side of the aisle. [Former Clinton Labor Secretary Robert] Reich rightly suggested to Newt that he was turning into a Big L type before his very eyes."
With sober bankers, professors, and policy analysts writing off the legitimacy of the American financial system, we don't need cues from conservative libertarians or old Marxists. What we need most right now is John Adams' observation that:
"When the people give way, their deceivers, betrayers, and destroyers press upon them so fast, that there is no resisting afterwards.... The people grow less steady, spirited, and virtuous, the seekers more numerous and more corrupt, and every day increases the circles of their dependants and expectants, until virtue, integrity, public spirit, simplicity, and frugality become the objects of ridicule and scorn, and vanity, luxury, foppery, selfishness, meanness, and downright venality swallow up the whole society."
A tweaked bailout package won't change that, especially if it comes from the United States Senate, which is three times further from populism and three times closer to Wall Street. To find your senators' phone numbers immediately, go to Everyday Citizen now, and call..



















Heard someone on NPR's "Marketplace" pointing out that consumer depositors were the main source of capital for typical banks. Nice to be reminded where money comes from.
I think most people felt the reaction that we were handing money to people who would not return any value for it. But the really interesting thing is that "socialism" is not a probited word on radio and TV, these days. We even hear commentators using the phrase "privatizing profit while socializing risk".
Saving a company by buying into it is simply business, (Warren Buffet), unless it's the government doing it; then it's socialism. Fortunate that now it's not automatically insane to do something socialist, as long as it is sound business practice.
October 1, 2008 10:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
Trying to get my senator's contact webform to work. I'm asking for a buy-in instead of bail-out.
October 1, 2008 11:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
. . . consumer depositors [are] the main source of capital for typical banks.
Which is why Washington Mutual and Wachovia were such juicy takeovers -- when the buyers were helped out by the FDIC.
Note: One of the intentions -- I suspect -- of raising the FDIC insurance limits is to induce depositors who invest in safe UST based mutual fund money market accounts to pull their money out and transfer the funds to bank money markets.
Insured by the FDIC banks can invest their money market funds in risky commercial paper (Lehman Brothers, for example), generate high returns, and still be as safe as conservative mutual fund money market managers.
More capital for the banks -- and more risk (an FDIC increasingly likely to fail) -- for the taxpayers.
October 1, 2008 12:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sounds familiar. It was when Congress voted to up FDIC insurance to $100 thousand, from $12 thousand I think, at Savings and Loan companies that those entities began practices that led to - well, that's an old story.
October 1, 2008 12:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Moral hazard" visits Main Street.
October 1, 2008 12:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
But never fear --
Up until December 31, 2009 the Secretary of the Treasury shall loan the FDIC any monies it shall request.
Note: The banks are absolved from paying any premium for the increase in insured amounts.
October 1, 2008 1:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Another commentator on NPR noted that the main reason that banks are reluctant to lend to each other or only at very high interest rates is that the lending institutions don't know how much bad debt is sitting on the borrowers books. Seems like the first step in resolving this crisis is open and honest audits, otherwise it's like pumping money into an Enron and having shell companies full of debit popping up all over the place.
October 1, 2008 11:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
Kucinich said last night that he wouldn't vote for the bill. His argument centered around fixing the mess from the bottom up - Main Street to Wall Street - rather than from the top down. He managed to convince me that he's right and I've been wrong.
(I don't know who 'invented' trickle-down but whoever the culprit is should be hung by his thumbs.)
October 1, 2008 11:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
Those of us not informed enough -- or not venal enough -- to understand the details of capital markets have to rely upon our intuitions. It's like listening to a lecture about quasars and coming away with the impression that the professor is lying or uninformed. We understand only tidbits of the lecture.
Whom do we trust?
It seems to me the people who control capital are the very people seeking to recapitalize. Putting aside the incompetence argument (why listen to a handless bomb-defuser?), the timing and vagueness of this "emergency" suggests a political gambit.
Declaring an emergency serves as a political disavowal. Whatever happens next will be the fault of those who took action in the emergency (Congress) rather than those who created or enabled the emergency. Bush somehow avoided all blame for negligence before 911 (while successfully assigning Clinton responsibility for ineffectiveness) and has used that tactic repeatedly since. It doesn't matter what the Congress does; Bush (Paulson, etc.) has tried to shift political responsibility onto the Congress. Forevermore, whatever bad happens will be the responsibility of Congress because they didn't act "responsibly" when confronted with an emergency.
Thus.
October 1, 2008 11:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
Your link has polluted my morning. Thanks.
Whom do we trust is the $700 billion dollar question. Certainly not the Wall. Nor do I trust the House no-votes on the bail-out to be based on anything else but the fear that if/when the government gets its big flat foot in the Wall's door, getting it out will be all but impossible - especially with a Democratic regime looming on the November horizon.
To a free-marketing free-loader government is a bad word.
October 1, 2008 2:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Bush Administration removed all the stop signs and traffic lights from our streets. They also removed the speed limit signs and passed a law that it's legal to drive on either side of the road. Millions of Americans are getting killed, but you don't think the taxpayers should have to pay to put the street signs back. That's what this is all about. I'm guessing you're a Libertarian. Did I get that right?
October 1, 2008 12:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
You wrote:
And Joseph LaPalombara, an emeritus professor of political science at Yale and a veteran observer of Italian politics, wrote that "When this crisis began to hit, the Italian parliament.... passed a measure that said something as simple as this: All banks... that had issued and were holding variable-rate mortgages, and that had raised the interest rates on them, were ordered immediately to return those mortgages to their initial rates....With punishment duly and equitably allotted among the financial institutions depending on how far their predatory lending had gone. I know of not a single member of Congress who has come up with anything like that."
This approach does, in fact, seem equitable and addresses the problem that needs addressing in the financial system as far as I can tell. The other economic troubles we have are not caused by the mortgage crisis. The whole thing is laughable in the sense that while the average American has been in dire straights now for years under the Bush tyranny and ruinous policies of war and tax cuts for the rich, now that the rich guys are having a problem entirely of their own making the whole nation is to come to their rescue including those who have been honest, played by the rules and have been suffering all these years.
But back to the Italian solution, my question is why no Democrat (especially Barack Obama) is pushing this very kind of measure? It is this lack of action on the part of Democrats in Congress to defend the working people of the country that exposes how corrupt they too have become over the years. Instead, they hop right on board to save the fat cats first and claim they are protecting the little guy with worthless guarantees and loophole ridden safeguards.
October 1, 2008 12:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
. . . why no Democrat (especially Barack Obama) is pushing this very kind of measure?
Because the Democratic leadership (including Barack Obama) is enthralled to Wall Street?
October 1, 2008 12:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, I think so.
Democrats in Congress have to come to terms with the fact that they cannot serve two masters (wealthy corportate interests on the one hand vs the people's interest or the public interest). They have been playing a game for decades now of supposedly doing both. The people are always the losers.
October 1, 2008 12:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
I know this is getting old, but as an explanation of Democratic defeat, Harry Truman is still the best guide:
Given the choice between a Republican and someone who acts like a Republican, people will vote for the real Republican all the time.
October 1, 2008 12:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Agreed.
We could use a few more Trumans right now in the Congress.
I'm convinced that if Obama was not such a centrist/corporate Democrat he would be trouncing McCain in the polls right now by a wide margin even with the vexing problem of racial voting among whites. The wishy washiness of his pro-corporate posture is a big factor that keeps Obama from connecting with the pent up frustration in the population which frightened many congressmen/women to oppose the bailout on Monday. But,as is often the case, our leaders are way behind the trend and remain too cautious to openly be real Democrats and more's the pity. They still think they have to hide the fact that they are liberal Democrats because they fear the attacks of the right.
October 1, 2008 1:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama can't do anything substantive until after the Election. If he tries to be bold now, he risks being swallowed up by forces completely beyond his control, as McCain did with his ill advised "suspension" and white horse ride to Washington last week. Barack is being cautious, knowing that if he steps in and makes a bold proposal, he risks undoing some of the gains he has made in the past few weeks. This situation is so fluid, he could easily be blamed for a failure to pass a bailout, and whatever financial ruin might come afterward. IMO, he is doing precisely what he has to do to win the election.
We can hammer him all day for being corporatist or centrist or whatever, but in the end, he is a far better alternative to John S. McCain and a continuation of the terrible policies that got us into this mess. I know you and others will be all over him starting Jan. 20th, and you should be! I suspect that he will listen to your point of view, which is quite a contrast to the way GWB has, and McCain would, govern.
October 1, 2008 2:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Granted, he is better than McCain. But the idea that he can't do anything or say anything that would influence the outcome of this attempt to steal $700 Billion from the treasury and hand it to a bunch of crooks is incorrect. Underlying your sense that Obama can't do anything until after the election is a hope that he will do something different at that time and that is the real problem. I think what you're seeing is what you'll get. Obama won't do anything differently once elected. That is the thing that has always concerned me most about him.
October 1, 2008 4:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
My read on why this thing is going to get shoved through is because Obama's advisors and Democratic leaders have looked at the revised plan and are confident that Paulson can't or won't run away with the picnic basket before the change of government, but it will cool the markets down with the promise of cash infusions. Big change of government coming down the road following a big election. In the meantime there's those street signs that need to be put back...
October 1, 2008 12:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hope springs eternal in the human breast.
To which we may add, hope is not a plan.
October 1, 2008 12:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
The tell on the bills before Congress from The Daily Muck: Monday's vote in favor of the failed $700 billion bailout were closely correlated to donations from finance, real estate, and insurance lobbyists, especially within the Democratic party, according to the nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics....
If any group is more tied into these financial groups it's the Senate. Reid and McConnell say tax breaks is the answer. Jesus Christ I'm sick of this shit.
A reasoned approach is out there, and IMHO should include a Sunset clause to assess the fallout next year. But pigs with lipstick will fly before our Congress, the best money can buy, will act for the best of our Nation.
October 1, 2008 12:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Apparently the only logical outcome then is that the government do nothing. We can talk about left-style alternatives until we're blue in the face, but our actual Congress may not even be able to pass the bill in front of it today. You want to give odds that the Republicans will vote for the Progressive Caucus's plan?
But what's the point anyway, right? None of these politicians can be trusted anyway, it seems. Obama is in the pocket of Wall Street and Dodd and Frank are bought and paid for. The only real choice is whether to vote for Nader or write in Paul, right?
Your intentions sound like those of Gene Debs but your outcomes are those of Herbert Hoover -- no government intervention.
October 1, 2008 2:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
You overlook the fact that we already have massive government intervention. Bear Sterns, AIG, Wa Mu, Indy Mac and Wachovia have huge potential price tags. Much of it still unknown. If the costs of these come in below .5 trillion we will be lucky. This .7 trillion is on top of that. And as Jim's banker friend pointed out it still does not address the basic problem, namely the total losses on the MBSs that are unkowable until the realestate market final reaches bottom. If the total losses in bond market reaches $2 trillion (a Roubini estimate that is consistent with a simple back of the envelope calculation I have seen) then this $.7 trillion will simply disappear into the ether.
Neither will it stop the coming steep recession. All Congress will accomplish by voting for this bailout will be to position themselves into not being held responsible for another few thousand point drop in the Dow. It is only wishfull thinking to say that will not happen in any case.
We have two rational choices, to do nothing or to do something that will give the taxpayer optimal protection. Unfortunately, we are taking a third choice.
October 1, 2008 2:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
OhioGuy -- you're not actually arguing for government intervention for it's own sake, are you? Don't you think it would be a good idea to make sure the government is actually doing something, y'know, helpful, before we send it off to intervene? Because one thing I've noticed about a lot of these folks on my television, telling me that we have to give them seventy-eleven kazillion dollars and absolute control of the universe RIGHT NOW or we're all going to die: they've been on my television before over the last couple of years, telling me everything was all right and I should just keep shopping. Maybe I'm just bull-headed, but I'm inclined to take what they say with a grain of salt.
October 1, 2008 2:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Once again I'm going to go out on my limb and advocate for a plan to focus on the mortgage crisis (rather than or as well as the credit crisis) and embrace the populist standpoint.
I just don't think there's any significant downside to creating a less-than-crash landing for the people who got caught up in the mortgage mess, their families, and the people who live down the street from them.
The main point of this bailout/rescue/recapitalization as I understand it is to make the bad mortgage debt good again. If folks could get past a certain inexplicable mean-spiritedness it would become clear that making some big payments on those bad mortgages at a homeowner level would have the same long-term effect as buying them from Wall Street. In fact it might even be better because the number of foreclosures--read total loss or forced Fannie Mae settlement--will not be as high.
The money will get to the holders of the securitized investments eventually, it would simply be routed from the bottom up rather than from the top down. (And isn't trickle up rather than trickle down what Democrats are supposed to be about?)
#1 uncomfortable fact: the govt--on behalf of the taxpayers (read voters) is going to have to buy us all out of this mess with, yes, taxpayer money.
#2 uncomfortable fact: if that's the case, it makes the most sense to do the buy in the right direction--from the bottom up not the top down. This way neighborhoods see a quick effect and folks can feel their housing situations stabilize.
I know nobody wants to reward people for making bad decisions. But if your dopey neighbors made bad decisions to buy places they couldn't afford on either side of your home, setting it up so their bad decisions don't take your whole street down with them isn't a reward for them so much as just smart thinking in your own interests. ("Bad neighbors! You took out bad mortgages on overpriced houses, creating a housing bubble! You deserve to be foreclosed upon as punishment and so that housing prices can return to normal!" Except that suddenly you've got boarded up houses on either side of you, their copper has been stolen, and crack addicts are using them as flophouses to provide lonely strangers with the oldest service known to humankind. Not exactly a family environment. Dudes, talk about cutting off your nose to spite your face.)
I'm just trying to say it's a bit crazy to fix the capital problem alone when pushing the money further down the food chain would help create a soft landing for the mortgage crisis as well. (Someone please help me with the correct economic terminology for "pushing the money further down the food chain.")
October 1, 2008 3:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't know the economic terminology - but clear out the big top-feeding fish so the bottom feeders have something to eat besides top-feeder shit.
October 1, 2008 5:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
I guess if you come right down to it that's what I'm saying--but I prefer to think of it as politely requesting that the big fish wait in line for once.....
October 1, 2008 8:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
The money will get to the holders of the securitized investments eventually
As a solution, it does have the nice intuitive feature that it protects all parties' expectations.
The homeowner expected to stay put, and the bank expected a steady stream of payments.
October 1, 2008 5:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ya know, lame as it sounds at first blush, it might be the most polite and least damaging way to do this, more of a really expensive tinker than a total engine rebuild.
And I know nobody wants to reward bad guys or people who made poor decisions, but helping feckless homeowners (or even small-time investors) who got caught up in the hoopla pales by comparison with handing out footballs of hundred dollar bills in Iraq to people who might be Iranian spies. Which we've done.
I mean, really. We've spent more money on stupider things, and this idea might actually help people out. So even if your response was meant as a joke, thanks for at least considering the idea......
October 1, 2008 8:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
(LPAC)--Lyndon LaRouche responded promptly to the House of Representatives' defeat of the Paulson bailout swindle, declaring this afternoon that ``I am on the case. Now, with the defeat of the bailout scheme, the way is open for my own three-step recovery plan, based on a bankruptcy reorganization of the hopelessly gone post-Bretton Woods speculative system. I shall present my action plan during my October 1, 2008 international webcast.'' Internet participants were able to submit questions to Mr. LaRouche, during the three-hour event, which has been archived with links now made available at
http://www.larouchepac.com/news/2008/10/01/larouche-webcast-now-more-ever-big-four.html
October 1, 2008 11:44 PM | Reply | Permalink