Why the next bailout bill should fail, too.
Some supporters of the bailout package that failed on Monday still think that it sank only because a tidal wave of short-sighted, right-wing populist rage topped the levee and swamped the House. Their Exhibit A is Thaddeus McCotter (R-Mich.), who warned, "In the Bolshevik Revolution, the slogan was 'Peace, land, and bread.' Today, you are being asked to choose between bread and freedom. I suggest the people on Main Street have said they prefer their freedom, and I am with them."
Such demagoguery is containable, bailout proponents say: A slightly-more "populist" package will pass the House soon, perhaps with a push from the Senate. And if the economy still worsens, the same angry citizens who scared those representatives who weren't "with them" as fully as Rep. McCotter into voting Nay will turn against them soon enough for having opposed the bailout.
A small problem: A lot of House "Bolsheviks" and liberals opposed it, too.
"Why aren't we reducing debt for Main Street instead of Wall Street?" demanded Ohio's Dennis Kucinich. "Is this the United States Congress or is it the board of directors of Goldman Sachs?"
There was even a "Bolshevik" in the majority of McCotter's Michigan delegation that opposed the plan, 9 to 6: Detroit's John Conyers asked, "If injecting credit into our financial industry is the solution to the current supposed credit squeeze, why hasn't this body been given... other proposals, like giving tax payers a no-risk equity stake in the bailout recipients or supporting the direct injection of capital into the financial industry, as we did during the Savings and Loan crisis of the 1980s? The likely reason is because Wall Street would have to give up a piece of its wealth..."
Other left-leaners opposed the deal as strongly as conservatives did, including Marcy Kaptur, a comrade of Kucinich in the Ohio delegation, which voted against it 10 to 7. So did dozens of center-liberal Democrats, many from seats safe enough to have survived populist wrath had they backed the bill.
What explains this un-harmonic convergence of left and right? Conservative Republicans will groan to learn that it evokes a world-weary French apercu, Les extremes se touchent: In politics, the opposite extremes sometimes touch, sharing a course of action for reasons antipathetic to each other.
In interwar Europe (to speak of real extremes).apocalyptic Marxists were as eager as fascists to see bourgeois democracy fail, imagining that that would unleash a proletarian revolution. But antipathy to Wall Street isn't as fantastical or nihilist as that, and it's nowhere near as irrational and uncontrollable as a tidal wave.
True, we are all wired into the current system, and if layoffs were announced and credit cards frozen we'd be frightened - for about a day, TPM's Dean Baker contends, until the Fed took over major banks, as it almost did in the 1980s, bouncing their executives and shareholders and letting the system of payments operate as before.
Serious restructuring would ensue: We could fix credit without giving so much to Wall Street and entrusting so much power to Henry Paulson and other big architects and apologists of what went wrong.
That's reason enough to discredit a second bailout bill. This is politics, after all, not a storm watch, and better leadership could turn the populist surge into something deeper and wiser. It could craft a stimulus package to boost borrowers' loan paybacks and credit ratings and, with that, lending and economic growth that are real this time, not imaginary.
Take a second look at what Kucinich and Conyers are saying. Are they really seeking less freedom than the sloganeering McCotter? The extremes are touching here because the statist, corporatist bailout now on the table is itself scary in basic republican terms. Rep. McCotter may see the hand of Lenin, and some on the left the hand of Mussolini, but another, deeper warning comes from the center of the republic itself:
"When the people give way, their deceivers, betrayers, and destroyers press upon them so fast, that there is no resisting afterwards," wrote John Adams in 1787. ".... The people grow less steady, spirited, and virtuous, the seekers more numerous and more corrupt, and every day increases the circles of their dependants and expectants, until virtue, integrity, public spirit, simplicity, and frugality become the objects of ridicule and scorn, and vanity, luxury, foppery, selfishness, meanness, and downright venality swallow up the whole society."
A tweaked bailout package won't change that, especially if it comes from the United States Senate, which is three times further from populism and three times closer to Wall Street. Even Thaddeus McCotter isn't wrong to say that those who would save the current system really will lose the American people.





"Is this the United States Congress or is it the board of directors of Goldman Sachs?
As my mother would put it: "a frage"
(For those with no Yiddish, it means :"Are you asking a serious question?")
It is difficult in some regards not to hope for the eventual defeat of any of these interventions under the heading "La victoire du pire".
Of course, that would bring us even closer to the above mentioned "apocalyptic Marxists"...
(Precious blood of the sweet baby Jesus, I would love to see just one Marxist, one more time before I die...)
September 30, 2008 11:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Haven't Marxists been declared an endangered species, now confined in zoos and being researched to find out how they breed? I'm sure I read about that in Scientific American. Visit a zoo near you and who knows what you might see.
September 30, 2008 11:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
how they breed?
In the case of the estimable Bernard Henri-Levy, with Arielle Dombasle.
The other Marxists, alas, not as lucky; they show far less interest and pharmacological interventions are being considered.
September 30, 2008 11:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Granting jollyroger's yiddishe mama all respect due her, those who seek a lengthier disquisition upon the shortcomings of our Republic and how it stands, should get themselves over to Glenn Greenwald's 10 normal principles for how our government functions, toot sweet.
October 1, 2008 2:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
Debt Junkies Must Go Cold Turkey
September 30, 2008 (LPAC)--Angry that the American people screwed up their bailout deal, the parasites are pulling out all the stops to make sure the bailout passes on the next vote. The problem is, they don't have as many stops to pull as they used to. They are getting desperate, because they are far more bankrupt than they have admitted. After all, you'd have to be pretty desperate to trot out President George W. Bush, perhaps the most despised and contemptible man in the country, to try to push the bill. Most people wouldn't buy a used car from that man, much less give him $700 billion. This is a save-the-parasites operation, pure and simple. The same financial system which destroyed the industrial might of America, and thus destroyed itself, is now demanding that it be saved. Why? So it can do us even more damage?
We are witnessing the Big Lie at work. The claim is being made that the bailout probably won't cost $700 billion, that it might even turn a profit in the end, because the assets will have value. Do you really believe that, if the banks thought there was profit to be had in these assets, they would offer to share that profit with the taxpayer? Not a chance. They know these assets are worthless, so they are doing what they always do, which is try to unload them on the suckers. The reality is that $700 billion is just a drop in the bucket compared to the trillions of dollars that will be required to make a significant difference to the banks. Paulson and Bernanke know this, the banks know this, and they are simply lying to the American people.
The real issue here, though, is not the cost of the plan, but that the plan will not work, and is just another in a string of incompetent actions by the people who created this disaster in the first place. The problem facing America is that the productive side of our economy has been destroyed by these idiotic economic policies, to the point that it can no longer support the mountain of debt which has been piled upon it. The bailout plan which the bankers are pushing as essential to save "Main Street," would simply pile more debt on top the mountain, while moving it from the books of the banks to the books of the government, and thus the taxpayers. It would do nothing, nothing at all, to solve the fundamental problem, which is the lack of productivity in the economy.
Our economy is addicted to debt, but we have reached the point where that addiction is killing us. The debt junkies in the banks and the big corporations are in withdrawal as their financial system dies, and are screaming for a fix. Just one more hit, they promise, and then we'll straighten out and kick the habit. But that one more dose will kill them, and us, because we, too, are addicted to debt. The more real incomes fall for the lower 80 percent of the population, the more people need to go into debt to survive, but we all know that is a dead end. We have to face the truth, that our economy is bankrupt, that the policy of trading production for debt has been a disaster, and that we must take our medicine. "Hi, my name is J.P. Morgan Chase, and I'm a debt addict."
If we continue down this slippery bailout slope, the result will be far different than the spin doctors promise. This ain't the yellow brick road, it's the path to Hell. What is waiting right around the corner is hyperinflation, and the complete disintegration of the global financial system, the global economy, and the United States. This is a nation-killing plan which will lead the world into economic collapse and a new Dark Age, as civilization itself crumbles. It must be stopped.
The response from the American people played a crucial role in defeating the bailout bill on the first vote, and now is the time to escalate. Bury your elected officials, especially your Congressmen, in a blizzard of demands that the bailout be stopped--out-pressure the bankers, and the whores of the Congressional leadership and the Bush Administration. We need to bury this once and for all.
But stopping the bailout is just the first step. Dramatic action is indeed required, and that starts with the honest admission that the system is finished, and that it must be put through bankruptcy reorganization. The debt junkies must go cold turkey. Lyndon LaRouche has laid out the plan for a real recovery, and we must first admit to ourselves that it is necessary, and then demand that our political leaders implement it. This is a time for courage, and action.
http://www.larouchepac.com/
September 30, 2008 11:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
I just posted this on another thread, so sorry if it's not totally relevant but maybe it supports sleeper's point that with better leadership the populism could have some legs:
Guys, I'm concerned about the sneery attitude toward populism. People are pissed that those having the "rescue" discussion are ignoring the ordinary homeowners--read voters--whose lousy mortgages are at the root of the problem, and their neighbors, whose home values and neighborhoods are tanking along with them.
(It is worth noting that in the view of most Americans--read voters--their wealth lies in their home, not their investments. So when it comes time for making choices, most ordinary people would rather see the market collapse than their housing/personal finances go tits up. I'm not saying this is fiscally correct, just noting the perception.)
In this new special interest world, peoples' votes only matter in the 8 weeks or so before an election. We are in that 8 weeks. The first presidential candidate who puts out a credible-sounding plan to deal with the mortgage crisis (not the credit crisis) will win the election. Every day that goes by in which Obama makes vague noises instead of laying out specifics is a day for "Maverick McCain" to seize.
Please don't let your disdain for newly populist Republicans get in the way of understanding that Americans want the problem solved at its root, not its ugly flower.
October 1, 2008 12:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
But Erica, isn't the problem to which you are referring grounded in the fact that there was a housing bubble that inflated home prices high above a sustainable level, and those prices are now falling back down to where they should be? Are you saying the government should do something to keep the bubble inflated perpetually?
The vast majority of people who live in their homes are not defaulting on their mortgages. The defaults are mainly coming from businesses and other real estate speculators who bought up houses like they were gold bars or oil futures, pumped up the prices, and then tried to exit the market en masse when they perceived it had topped out. Or from people who bought second and third homes on the strength of exaggerated estimates of the value of their primary home, and their ability to sell that first home whenever they wanted to. There are a lot of overpriced houses that won't move, and many of these investors and big spenders found themselves over-leveraged, and unable to meet all the obligations in their pyramid of obligations.
Some of the most vulnerable in our society might need mortgage relief or government-mediated restructuring. But the key housing task now is keeping ordinary homeowners in their primary homes. And keeping people in their homes is primarily a question of making sure people keep their jobs. Preventing massive job losses from dramatic economic contraction is the root problem, as far as I'm concerned.
October 1, 2008 12:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yup. I'm aware of the housing bubble. And yes, prices for housing still need to come down. But I don't think there's any benefit in letting a crash happen as opposed to a softer landing for the people who got caught up in this mess and the people who live down the street from them.
The main point of this bailout/rescue as I understand it is to make the bad mortgage debt good again. If folks could get past a certain inexplicable mean-spiritedness it would become obvious that making some big payments on those bad mortgages at a homeowner level would have the same effect as buying them from Wall Street. The money will get to the holders of the securitized investments eventually, it would simply be routed from the bottom up rather than from the top down. (And isn't trickle up rather than trickle down what Democrats are supposed to be about?)
#1 uncomfortable fact: the govt--on behalf of the taxpayers (read voters) is going to have to buy us all out of this mess with, yes, taxpayer money.
#2 uncomfortable fact: if that's the case, it makes the most sense to do the buy in the right direction--from the bottom up not the top down.
And yes, I share your concern about keeping everyone's job. So the sooner we get started on this the better.
October 1, 2008 2:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
You are absolutely crrect Erica!
The problem in the media, in the government (Dems included)and amongst even many commenters at a place like this is that they aren't interested in the average homeowner. They ought to be. And the issue isn't about the bubble or whether housing values need to go down. The issue is how do we keep all these people paying their mortgages and staying in the middle class. When people can pay their mortgage they build at least some wealth and a stake in the system. The people at the top don't give a rat's ass about the common people. The common people know both instinctually and by the shabby treatment and short shrift their interests are given at the highest levels. The common people are disgusted and angry that on top of all the other indignities they have to suffer, they now have to bail out the parasites who have profited while everyone else has been scraping by. Oy!
I only wish there were more real, live Democrats in Congress and elsewhere pushing hard for relief for the little people.
October 2, 2008 12:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
True, we are all wired into the current system, and if layoffs were announced and credit cards frozen we'd be frightened - for about a day, TPM's own Dean Baker contends, until the Fed took over major banks, as it almost did in the 1980s, bouncing their executives and shareholders and letting the system of payments operate as before.
This is the point at which I lost the thread of the argument in Baker's post, and I'm losing it here as well. Are you telling me that if I and a million other people were to be laid off some week because companies across the country had lost their ability to meet their payrolls, that the Fed would just take over the banks and we'd all get our jobs back tout de suit? Can you point to some phenomenon in history that bears out this astonishing prediction?
And are you arguing that even if during some week in the near future so many panicky people tried to withdraw such large amounts of money from their banks, and make so many emergency "survivalist" purchases with their credit cards, that the banks had to close their doors and shut down ATM machines and cut off credit, still once the Fed took over the banks, confidence would be restored, and the run on withdrawals and charging would end abruptly?
Our whole society is kept afloat on a cushion of interlocking promises, puffed up with confidence, that inflates around a much smaller core of hard assets. If confidence collapses, the cushion deflates and wealth evaporates, and it doesn't just come back via the use of the Fed's magic confidence pump.
October 1, 2008 12:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
The bailout bill isn't about freedom, or fascism, or socialism, or Lenin, or Mussolini, or anything else you're talking about. It's even only marginally about economics, per se.
It's really about interrelated systems and preventing systems failure.
I'm not generally a technocrat but this is in fact a technical issue and populism isn't the immediate answer.
With all due respect to Dennis Kucinich (and I have a lot of respect for him), he doesn't know squat about financial markets.
October 1, 2008 12:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
Our problem is that we as Americans have grown overly skeptical of professional expertise. OhioGuy
I flipped a coin, OhioGuy, and Professor Roubini's judgment won out over yours. Just luck, I guess.
October 1, 2008 2:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
There's no reason you should trust my judgment over Roubini's. You don't know me from Adam, after all.
For the record, I have nothing against people who accept Roubini's judgment, or the any other opinion carefully and rationally entered into. I do have problems with basing opinions on a feeling of "I'm mad as hell and I'm not going to take it anymore", which I think is at the basis to a lot of the popular view here.
October 1, 2008 3:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
. . . I have nothing against people who accept Roubini's judgment . . . .
No, your view is that once we've heard from the experts -- Paulson, Bernanke, and Cox -- we, like obedient little children, should sit at the top of the stairs and watch quietly the adults dancing downstairs -- at the Predators' Ball.
October 1, 2008 12:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
In response to OhioGuy and some others here, I think the problem is that Henry Paulson and his Wall Street colleagues don't know any more than Dennis Kucinich about how to keep financial markets viable -- unless, of course, their purpose has always been to destroy them when they couldn't impoverish the rest of us to sustain them.
October 1, 2008 1:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
Ok, I can understand being wary of someone with a Wall Street/Bush Administration background, although I personally have more confidence in Paulson than that.
So what about Barney Frank, Chris Dodd, and the rest of the Democratic congressmen who've been on relevent committees for years? Do we just throw away their experience too and rely on gut feelings? That sounds more like a Sarah Palin solution to me.
October 1, 2008 3:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
Barney Frank, Chris Dodd
It grieves me to say this of the learned gentleman from Cambridge, let alone Chris "I will filibuster FISA till Jimmy Stewart rises from the dead" Dodd, but the very same Ellen with whom you recently exchanged pleasantries favored us at some time in the past with a very depressing precis of just what the going rate is these days for buying an amendment of the Bankruptcy Code.
(re posted correctly...)
October 1, 2008 4:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
Human nature aside, your general proposal is intellectually unsustainable. If the fed is going to take over the "banks", then they will need a big 'ole influx of taxpayer-backed cash. I don't see this as significantly different from the current situation(except that only a couple ten-thousand have been laid off and credit cards still work so far). Surely you don't think a couple billion taken out of American's pockets before the fed ultimately bails out the problems anyway would make life better?
I don't believe for a second that Kucinich knows a CDO from a CDS from a hole in the ground - and I know for a FACT Sali doesn't. Both voted philosophical ignorance against the measured work of those with true knowledge.
Since I can see how to make Paulson's underlying strategy work - and return some/most/all of our money; I think the basic structure will be the least expensive route. As OhioGuy correctly pointed out it really is an interrelated systems issue more than anything else. If you massage the correct pieces, the rest will clunk along until you can extract some of this insane crap they've done. The bill addressed many of the systemic problems as well as can be handled at this stage.
I have yet to hear the munchkin-king OR the homo-haters proclaim a solution that I can see working. If that happens talk to me (I've heard that the neocons are praying REAL hard and coming up with their own plan ... should be a hoot, maybe you'll like faith-based economics better).
October 1, 2008 3:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think the problem is that Henry Paulson and his Wall Street colleagues don't know any more than Dennis Kucinich about how to keep financial markets viable.
And Jim, what expertise of your own do you rely on to make this judgment about the comparative levels of financial market insight between Dennis Kucinich and Henry Paulson?
You know, I think TPM Cafe could have done a much better job serving The Republic this week if instead of going ahead with a pre-planned discussion on George Bush's legal accountability for his crimes, an otherwise excellent and worthy topic, they had instead organized an online discussion and debate among several real economists and experts on the financial markets. We have had Dean Baker holding court with no check or balance from the opinions of the many people with comparable training, experience and skills who evidently disagree with him. People have been struggling to find understanding and answers, and they haven't been forthcoming. We might say that the knowledge markets have frozen up, and are now flooded with "trash".
October 1, 2008 7:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
URGENT ACTION NEEDED
Sen Maj Leader Harry Reed is planning on bringing back the inadequate give away that was defeated in the house. It’s going to be voted on Wednesday. He needs to be told by email, fax, phone that it is not good enough. his contact info is:
528 Hart Senate Office Bldg
Washington, DC 20510
Phone: 202-224-3542
Fax: 202-224-7327
Toll Free for Nevadans:
1-866-SEN-REID (736-7343)
The core concept proposed by Bush is flawed. Call some hearings and ask some economists. Google Sweden 1992 banking crisis. They had good success promptly steering their financial institutions back to safety. Learn the lessons, write it for the Democratic base, and own it. The “compromise” tweeking that was done to the Bush proposal resulted in a toothless and weak 100 page bill that tried to bury and hide its weakness from the voters. Rather than condescendingly claiming that the American people didn’t understand (Cf, McSame of Obama at first debate), or that the leadership didn’t explain it well enough, the reality is that public outrage finally made the Republicans blink, to borrow from Palin. If they vote in favor of bailing out the bad actors, they lose votes from constituents in five weeks at the next election. That is their only moral hazard. The bill that failed would not have prevented one of the 10K daily foreclosures, could have been filibustered until Bush spent all $700B, would only have made some parachutes non-tax-deductible, merely required a report “suggesting” how the taxpayer will be paid back, and allowed the same bunch of lobbyists to set prices for their trash that the taxpayers would pay. As a final insult, instead of providing more confidence through transparency, the failed bill would allow Paulson (like Enron did) to suspend the mark-to-market rule. This is intellectual dishonesty that will further erode confidence in our banking system. Do a better job on all these issues and allow bankruptcy judges to implement the rewriting of loans, or face the wrath of the voters. I think many voters would accept a temporary governmental equity position in the banking sector as long as the bad guys aren’t seen as maintaining their ability to subvert the programs and continue to rip off the system. Don’t pull another FISA cave.
October 1, 2008 3:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
You think this is like Sweden in 1992? By all means - call Harry; he needs a good laugh.
So you propose implement full socialism and pray for a second .com boom? Great plan.
October 1, 2008 3:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
Barney Frank, Chris Dodd
It grieves me to say this of the learned gentleman from Cambridge, let alone Chris "I will filibuster FISA till Jimmy Stewart rises from the dead" Dodd, but the very same Ellen with whom you recently exchanged pleasantries favored us at some time in the past with a very depressing precis of just what the going rate is these days for buying an amendment of the Bankruptcy Code.
October 1, 2008 4:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hi,
I hope you don't mind me asking, but I've rarely commented on forums etc. in the last few years and never got around to asking anyone, what the Link under each persons Comment is, that is like this: | Permalink ----- does it mean when I click on it that I am linking to a particular person's comment? But what am I linking the person's article to? Oh, is it linking to My comment that I put in the Forum. I thought originally it linked to my Web Site but no one knows my web site. Thank you for your time. I really would appreciate a Reply, if you have the time.
October 1, 2008 4:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
I believe the "Permalink" gives one the address to use to directly link to the comment.
For example this link...
http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/09/30/why_the_next_bailout_bill_shou/#comment-3143924
...should be to Jollyroger's first comment on this thread. Try it and see. (I just right-clicked on that "Permalink" and did a "Copy Shortcut", then pasted it here.)
So if you wanted to cross-reference a comment from another thread, you could post a link to it.
-- ARG
October 1, 2008 10:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
I haven't seen this point brought up, so untill they bail Wall St. out I'll say this: the p-resident and his cronies can give billions so that Iraqi's can be killed and their oil stolen, but cannot bail out the banks etc. for the People they Represent. I'm a Canadian and usually do not buy American items. I'll only buy them if they are made by small family businesses or single people. I'm thinking when I buy goods from these people that helps them, even if a bit of what I buy goes to Bush's/etc. pocket.
October 1, 2008 4:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
"Why aren't we reducing debt for Main Street instead of Wall Street?"
Because reducing debt isn't the goal. Injecting some liquidity into frozen capital markets is. Banks won't lend each other money. That's what this is all about. This nonsense about "bailing out Wall Street" completely misses the point that NO ONE is talking about bailing out Wall Street. What Congress is trying to do is rescue a failing financial industry. Allowing banks to fail is not an option.
October 1, 2008 11:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
WE are in for the ride of our life. We must call our congressmen to stop this madness called a bail out. As we can see already this morning mby the market it not going to help main street, just save some big time investers. God help us all
October 2, 2008 10:07 AM | Reply | Permalink