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RESCUE PLAN FOR THE RESCUE PLAN

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The failure of the $700 billion financial bailout package in the House yesterday (228-205) set off immediate tremors in Washington, New York, and throughout the U.S., followed by aftershocks in capital markets around the world. Never in its history has the Dow suffered a worse single-day point drop. Credit markets have ground to a complete halt. Over one trillion dollars of national wealth was lost. by the time the markets closed on Monday. Retirement plans and nest eggs are shrinking. Americans seeking mortgages, student and car loans, or bank credit are being turned away regardless of their ability to repay. If we didn't have a crisis before, we have one now. What are the next steps to take?

Yes, congressional negotiators deserved tremendous credit for their tireless efforts to reach a compromise on an economic rescue package this past weekend. But, following the bill's defeat yesterday, the rescue plan now faces a major uphill struggle in the court of public opinion and, therefore, in Congress as it prepares to reconsider the package and vote on Thursday. Vast improvements in both the legislation and the sales pitch both can and must be made.

Here is a five-point rescue plan to save the rescue plan:


• Substantive Improvements: The bill doesn't need a radical overhaul; only 12 votes need to be moved from the 'no' to the 'yes' column. Among the improvements most likely to win those votes over:

o Increase the level of deposits insured by the FDIC from $100,000 to $250,000
o Require detailed transparency and reporting in the contracting process, salaries, etc., for financiers hired by Treasury to execute purchases and sales under the plan
o Add prudent margin requirements on derivatives trading and a tax on securities derivatives transactions
o Most importantly, mandate a plan, right now, to repay taxpayers for any losses not recouped within five years of enactment of the rescue plan
o If a Hail Mary is necessary: postpone the final $350 billion tranche, require approval of this tranche via subsequent legislation, and reduce the debt limit provision from $11.3 to $10.95 trillion

• The Fierce Urgency of Now: Efforts to date to impress upon the public the dire economic consequence of inaction under current circumstances have been inadequate. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke - an expert on the Great Depression bearing no partisan axe to grind - told Congress last week that without a rescue plan, the number of jobs lost over the next four to six months would rise by about 3.5 million, which would push the unemployment rate to the highest levels since the recession of the early 1980s - or worse. Such prognoses, if concrete, authoritative, and repeated, will help make explicit the grave economic consequences for American workers in their everyday lives, should this package fail again.

• A New Name for the Bill: the new rescue package should be given a new name, something along the lines of "Economic Rescue Pact". Why?

o Economic - because this is not about Wall Street, it's about the entire economy. The consequences of inaction are macroeconomic, reaching deeply into people's pension funds and pocket books.
o Rescue - because it is no longer structured as, and for obvious reasons must never be referred to as, a "bailout"; taxpayers are to be made whole and may even profit at the end of the day.
o Pact - because the package is now a quid-pro-quo (notably but not only in the warrants, fees, and asset resale provisions) and not a unilateral relief package; it's not something for nothing, but it is now a two-way street.

• Advocate in Chief: The bill desperately needs a universally respected advocate far outside of the pit of partisan politics. Who better than the Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffett? He stands as a brilliant example of how aspects of the rescue plan can work, i.e., make a profit for taxpayers by sharing in the benefits of the improved share prices from asset sales. In the Goldman Sachs deal last week, Buffett himself injected $5 billion in equity, helping to stabilize that institution and earning profits from its eventual recovery. There are reasons to believe he might accept the assignment (see: http://www.cnbc.com/id/26852539). Suze Orman would be another powerful advocate for the plan. Together Buffett and Orman would make a formidable team. (President Bush can take the rest of the week off.)

• Demonstration of National Support: Since the next House vote will occur at noon on Thursday at the latest, there is still time to form a coalition of outside public interest groups, left, center, and right, who are in a position to endorse/promote the package. Americans should hear from low-income housing, fiscal watchdog, and financial services groups who endorse the rescue plan as 1) vitally necessary, 2) a fair deal, 3) protective of taxpayers, and 4) fiscally responsible.

The gauntlet is down. The markets and the broader economy are waiting with bated breath. Congress has one more bite at the apple. The time to improve and promote the plan is upon us. Members of the House who voted "nay" yesterday, the nation turns its eyes to you. Let us strive to act before it is too late to halt and reverse the nation's economic crisis.


19 Comments

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I am absolutely fascinated see who changes their votes, and the rationales given for those changes. 12 Congressmen and women, from individual districts across the country, and across the political spectrum, hold the immediate fate of the nation's economy in their hands. This is amazing stuff.

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Efforts to date to impress upon the public the dire economic consequence of inaction under current circumstances have been inadequate.
I'd be more inclined to think that the public has not been impressed that the bill represents action that will be effective, rather than being a complete waste of an enormous amount of taxpayer money. But I could be wrong... I have no polling data.
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Dana Chasin tries out for the role of Chicken Little in the annual school play.

He's definitely got my vote.

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Um... how about restructuring the bill so that it isn't a massive handout to Wall Street? How about doing something to protect people with home and even consumer debt? This bill isn't popular because people realize they're getting screwed. Changing the name and upping the FDIC insurance limit isn't the answer.

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"Never in its history has the Dow suffered a worse single-day point drop."

Keywords: point drop

Black Monday in October 1987 was a much bigger percentage drop.

"Credit markets have ground to a complete halt. Americans seeking mortgages, student and car loans, or bank credit are being turned away regardless of their ability to repay"

Please cite your source for this sweeping statement.

There is an awful lot of hyperbole in your post. Don't you think you are being unnecessarily alarmist making you more a part of the problem than the solution?

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I was in a state of suspense as I watched the vote on the bailout bill and the dropping market on split screen. After the bill failed and the market lost 7 percent, a thought occurred to me;

"Did I just see the government work as it should?

The bankers and the Wall Street sharks, the tycoons, and their minions in Congress, were pushing mightly for this bailout.... a bailout needed becasue the Wall Street sharks, the tycoons, the bankers, and their minions in Congress set in motion the wheels that led to the need fore this bailout.....and they lost.

Many of those involved made thier way to television studios to tell us how horrible the loss was and that the government is broken.

Well, is it broken? Or did it work?

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"Did I just see the government work as it should?

I figure we will know the answer to that when we see a final bill, how it is implemented and overseen and whether the effects are consistent with the stated intent.

Tangible results seem to be the only reliable indicator of what government is (or is not) doing these days. Especially when they try to ram legislation through without giving the public--or even some members of Congress--a chance to come up to speed and assess what is going through.

"Many of those involved made thier way to television studios to tell us how horrible the loss was and that the government is broken."

Gosh, what a redundant waste of the public servants' time for them ramp up fear on TV--the TV commentators already turned on the fear routine for them.

Just today someone on fox said something like "you people who work for big companies all realize that your companies borrow money to make payroll, right? You realize you might not get paid, right?"

I'm no economist, but let's say there is a freeze and some companies can't make payroll...Why wouldn't some person or some entity with capital rush in to lend that company payroll money so they can collect the interest? (it's not a toxic loan or anything to lend to a large company in good shape, right?)

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I just found one answer to my question about whether if financial institutions can't make loans somebody else will step in:

Economics professor Jeffry Miron from Harvard says this:

"Talk of Armageddon, however, is ridiculous scare-mongering. If financial institutions cannot make productive loans, a profit opportunity exists for someone else. This might not happen instantly, but it will happen."

(Jeffrey A. Miron is senior lecturer in economics at Harvard University. A Libertarian, he was one of 166 academic economists who signed a letter to congressional leaders last week opposing the government bailout plan.)

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/09/29/miron.bailout/index.html?iref=mpstoryview

Editor's note: Jeffrey A. Miron is senior lecturer in economics at Harvard University. A Libertarian, he was one of 166 academic economists who signed a letter to congressional leaders last week opposing the government bailout plan.

CAMBRIDGE, Massachusetts (CNN) -- Congress has balked at the Bush administration's proposed $700 billion bailout of Wall Street. Under this plan, the Treasury would have bought the "troubled assets" of financial institutions in an attempt to avoid economic meltdown.

This bailout was a terrible idea. Here's why.
The current mess would never have occurred in the absence of ill-conceived federal policies. The federal government chartered Fannie Mae in 1938 and Freddie Mac in 1970; these two mortgage lending institutions are at the center of the crisis. The government implicitly promised these institutions that it would make good on their debts, so Fannie and Freddie took on huge amounts of excessive risk.

Worse, beginning in 1977 and even more in the 1990s and the early part of this century, Congress pushed mortgage lenders and Fannie/Freddie to expand subprime lending. The industry was happy to oblige, given the implicit promise of federal backing, and subprime lending soared.
This subprime lending was more than a minor relaxation of existing credit guidelines. This lending was a wholesale abandonment of reasonable lending practices in which borrowers with poor credit characteristics got mortgages they were ill-equipped to handle.

Once housing prices declined and economic conditions worsened, defaults and delinquencies soared, leaving the industry holding large amounts of severely depreciated mortgage assets.
The fact that government bears such a huge responsibility for the current mess means any response should eliminate the conditions that created this situation in the first place, not attempt to fix bad government with more government.

The obvious alternative to a bailout is letting troubled financial institutions declare bankruptcy. Bankruptcy means that shareholders typically get wiped out and the creditors own the company.

Bankruptcy does not mean the company disappears; it is just owned by someone new (as has occurred with several airlines). Bankruptcy punishes those who took excessive risks while preserving those aspects of a businesses that remain profitable.
In contrast, a bailout transfers enormous wealth from taxpayers to those who knowingly engaged in risky subprime lending. Thus, the bailout encourages companies to take large, imprudent risks and count on getting bailed out by government. This "moral hazard" generates enormous distortions in an economy's allocation of its financial resources.

Thoughtful advocates of the bailout might concede this perspective, but they argue that a bailout is necessary to prevent economic collapse. According to this view, lenders are not making loans, even for worthy projects, because they cannot get capital. This view has a grain of truth; if the bailout does not occur, more bankruptcies are possible and credit conditions may worsen for a time.

Talk of Armageddon, however, is ridiculous scare-mongering. If financial institutions cannot make productive loans, a profit opportunity exists for someone else. This might not happen instantly, but it will happen.

Further, the current credit freeze is likely due to Wall Street's hope of a bailout; bankers will not sell their lousy assets for 20 cents on the dollar if the government might pay 30, 50, or 80 cents.

The costs of the bailout, moreover, are almost certainly being understated. The administration's claim is that many mortgage assets are merely illiquid, not truly worthless, implying taxpayers will recoup much of their $700 billion.

If these assets are worth something, however, private parties should want to buy them, and they would do so if the owners would accept fair market value. Far more likely is that current owners have brushed under the rug how little their assets are worth.

The bailout has more problems. The final legislation will probably include numerous side conditions and special dealings that reward Washington lobbyists and their clients.
Anticipation of the bailout will engender strategic behavior by Wall Street institutions as they shuffle their assets and position their balance sheets to maximize their take. The bailout will open the door to further federal meddling in financial markets.

So what should the government do? Eliminate those policies that generated the current mess. This means, at a general level, abandoning the goal of home ownership independent of ability to pay. This means, in particular, getting rid of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, along with policies like the Community Reinvestment Act that pressure banks into subprime lending.

The right view of the financial mess is that an enormous fraction of subprime lending should never have occurred in the first place. Someone has to pay for that. That someone should not be, and does not need to be, the U.S. taxpayer.


"Economic - because this is not about Wall Street, it's about the entire economy. The consequences of inaction are macroeconomic, reaching deeply into people's pension funds and pocket books."

I think at best it's a stop-gap measure. It seems to me that "our economy" has fundamentally changed from that to which most of us are accustomed. We're seeing the kinds of boom and bust cycles they had in the 19th century. At best this rescue plan keeps the market in slight upward trend until the end of the year. Of course the financial profession still wants some of that--it's bonus time.

Pensioners, who've been counseled to death to never ever take their money out of the market, are going to feel hit up by this perfidy either way. Even Suze Orman--recognizing that the game really has changed-- is starting to advocate a more trader-like mentality, although I don't expect most imminent retirees to ever make that transition.

So, there may be a good rationale for this particular plan, but yesterday's hissy fit on the Street is not it.

One thing that was clear in the market drop, is that the regional banks are taking a real hit. If I thought that Paulson would take their bad mortgage backed securities off their hands, maybe I could see some benefit at least in terms of some institutional diversification, instead of having everything get collapsed into an ailing Citibank.

Do I think that's where the money will go? Not really. Has Congress sought to steer it in any way? Not effectively.

Given the dysfunctional cronyism, I wouldn't expect anything to happen that Congress doesn't dictate outright.

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Credit markets have ground to a complete halt. Over one trillion dollars of national wealth was lost. by the time the markets closed on Monday. Retirement plans and nest eggs are shrinking. Americans seeking mortgages, student and car loans, or bank credit are being turned away regardless of their ability to repay.
Horse Hockey! Today the stock market gained back most of that trillion dollar loss, so obviously we need a repeat of what we did to cause that - we had a one day 450 rise in the market, probably a new record rise. Surely, whatever we did yesterday needs to be repeated and repeated and we will all be rich.

My retirement kitty has been shrinking for quite some time now. Yesterday it hiccupped and shrunk a bit more, but today it is back on its steady course of shrinkage.

Americans seeking credit were all rejected today by the banks? Give me a break. Are you trying to compete with McCain for liar of the year?

Oh, and I just went outdoors - the sky is still there as always.

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Derivatives trading should be banned. The trading of real assets is valuable. But as you create exotic financial instruments, their relationship to the underlying asset becomes illusionary.

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Wasn't there once a concept called "fiduciary responsibility"? If it still exists does it have any relevance to what is happening?

There was a rally in the market today; if the market finishes in positive territory again tomorrow won't it be harder to pass the bill on Thursday?

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Today is a month-end. Also quarter- and year- end for some, including the Federal government. It is a date that forces some trades to close and on which many companies choose to clean up their balance sheets. Today in particular some companies may be propping up their stock as much as they can to help their required financial reporting look better. Tomorrow will be more interesting.

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I don't doubt that there will be a loss in the Dow Jones index tomorrow. We had a big loss Monday, a big gain today, so it makes sense that we will have a loss tomorrow. Ho Hum.

Given that we are in a recession now, not a threatened one, but a real one, the stock market can't be expected to be on a continuous upslope. The best we can hope for is a slow decline, and I suspect that is what we will have for several months. That decline will be interrupted by big gains occasionally and big losses occasionally. If we panic over the big losses, why don't we get euphoric over the big gains? That, at least, is more fun.

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Isn't euphoria what got us into this mess?

It was kind of disheartening that so many were panicking yesterday over a 7% drop. I was working for a brokerage firm on Black Monday in 1987. It was intense but I don't remember many people running around screaming that the sky was falling. Two days later the market bounced back. Lots of trades, lots of commissions either way.

I hated the effect derivatives, mathematical models and market timing had on the industry so I switched to real estate investment and management. Out of that now too. What I learned in both areas is that the so-called masters of the universe are about as clueless as the rest of us and that there is good money to be made providing them with theories, computer models etc. so they can rationalize their bets.

The perception has been set. The world awaits a promised bailout. Are American taxpayers more knowledgeable than the White House, McCain and Obama?

Or are they suddenly just less susceptible to bad PR?

http://pacificgatepost.blogspot.com/2008/09/bailout-of-perception.html

It sure looks like it.

Why no one questioning the many in Congress who have fed at the trough. What Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac executives did, for example, was illegal. Taking their cash favors was morally bankrupt.

TOP RECEIVERS of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Campaign Contributions:



Dodd, Christopher Dem. $165,400


Obama, Barack Dem $126,349


Kerry, John Dem $111,000

The list is long and includes Dems and Repubs.

Sad.

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Could you please cite a source for your assertion?

Are these contributions from the GSEs themselves, or aggregated totals from people who work at the GSEs?

-- ARG

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