On Working With the Tribes
I am delighted to learn from one of the great specialists in the field, Shuja Nawaz, who is just back from the tribal areas in Pakistan next to the border with Afghanistan.
His on-the-spot observations are supported by a report published in the last issue of the Economist. The seven tribes at issue are not all of one kind. Some are much more willing to work against foreign fighters than others. All seek economic support for the development of roads, schools, and clinics. To reiterate, a good part of the turn about in Iraq came after the US started working with the various tribes, especially the Sunnis. The liberation of Afghanistan was achieved by working with an alliance of tribes, called the Northern Alliance. Now those who seek to protect both Pakistan and Afghanistan from Al Qaeda and the Taliban need to find ways to work with at least some of the tribes next to the border. It's all in Sociology 101.
Amitai Etzioni is a professor of international relations at The George Washington University. For more discussion, see Security First (Yale 2007). To contact him, write comnet@gwu.edu.
www.securityfirstbook.com
"It's all in sociology 101." How glib.
But you continue to avoid answering the most pertinent questions about these tribes: who are they? What do they believe? How do their leaders treat their people? What makes you think that we won't be funding out future enemies by funding these tribalists? How do we know that sending money to an outlaw region won't result in fraud and abuse, as we saw with the billions stolen in Iraq? Finally, how do you justify sending money to outlaw tribal areas in Pakistan when we have so many needs here at home?
September 24, 2008 2:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Northern alliance was not an alliance of the tribes but of different ethnic groups in Afghanistan. People that are familiar with that war know that there was lots of money spent on buying loyalties in the 80s. That strategy failed because groups were constantly changing loyalties based on the best offer of the day. We don’t need to start that auction again.
The partial success in neutralizing the Sunni tribes in Iraq may not work in FATA or Afghanistan. The initial results in Iraq may appear good but we don’t have other sources to confirm the claims as the information is filtered by the party that initiated that strategy. Still, one year is not good enough time to claim success and attempt to duplicate that in entirely different environments, both politically and geographically.
Afghanistan and FATA are pretty much in a state of war for the last thirty years and the war is now a part of life there.
No one would deny that opening schools, building roads, and creating job opportunities would eventually change that area but all that would not bring any immediate changes. The Taliban go after the schools for some reason and after you open schools, you should be ready to provide security too.
The FATA has a proliferation of FM radio stations and almost all are controlled by the Taliban. The US and Pakistan don’t make any attempt to shut them down. The propaganda arm of the Taliban should not be allowed to operate in the area. All those stations and frequencies must be jammed. Cell phones are easily available and operable throughout FATA. The US and Pakistan must be monitoring the conversations for intelligence but more than the intelligence, the need is to take away their most important means of communication. All cell phones should be disabled in that area.
Taking the small steps first would lead to the bigger steps later. Yes, the US can pour in the money and would make some short terms gains but eventually the middleman would misappropriate the financial aid and the situation would go back to where it is now.
The Pakistan army has not accounted for the money the US provided as economic assistance in FATA during the last few years. Until we are able to completely remove the Pakistan army and its generals from the picture, there is very little hope of success in any project in FATA.
September 24, 2008 4:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
OK Amitai, I checked out Nawaz, he says:
"Also we need to moderate tribesmen now organizing their own forces to evict militants and "foreigners" (al qaeda) along the lines of the Iraqi Awakening movement."
If you are talking about the tribemen along the border, the foreigners they are trying to evict are the Nato and US forces. These are the Pashtuns. They will not accept foreigners. That includes us.
You seem to see the Awakening Councils as a precedent. Sorry Amitae, if you think that precendent is a victory for US forces in Iraq, you are really as dumb as you usually appear. Neither the Sunni tribes nor the Pashtuns will accept our domonium over them. If Nawaz is promising you that then maybe you should talk with Chalabi, he also has a bridge he would like to sell.
September 25, 2008 12:43 AM | Reply | Permalink