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ABC/Wash Post: Obama at 52% (9 Point Lead): Neither Gore Nor Kerry Ever Broke Above 50%

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Check it out.

According to ABC/Washington Post, a seismic shift has occurred. Obama is now at 52% with McSame at 43. The ABC/Post says that neither Gore nor Kerry ever rose above 50% at any point in 2000 or 2004.

Of course, all the other variables are still in play. Obama should be much higher than this BUT with the economy looking like 1932, it could well be that so will the election returns.

How does "Happy Days Are Here Again" go?


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Dems need to quit setting unrealistic expectations of their candidate and expect to win. If Kerry and Gore never rose above 50% then how is it that "Obama should be doing better"? I see this phrase all over the place, yet no one has shown me why he should be doing better. Was FDR leading by the 9 points he would eventually win the popular vote by at any time leading to the election?

There have been candidate leading by a "landslide" in September only lose big in November. So, why is it that Obama should be leading by any set percentage given the utter uniqueness of his campaign and of the electorate this year. What electoral precedent has 12 million new voters, a compromised media and the first black presidential candidate to set the baseline?

I agree that in this specific metric, there appears to be good news, but this over-reliance on polling and polls as a way to form our opinions from day-to-day is a major symptom of the disease that is killing our politics.

My personal guess is that this feeling that Obama "should" be doing better comes from a variety of things.

One is that he's got the chops and supple intelligence, and character, to handle crisis and still not lose sight of the far horizon. But he looks younger than he is, and that skinniness doesn't help the impression of someone just out of college. I don't believe that's fair, but it underpins the "experience" question. It relates to image and bearing.

The other thing is that gnawing worry that Americans have been so numbed and dumbed down by a few hundred lying advertising messages we can't avoide, each and every day, that they no longer care or can distinguish between lies and the truth. We've been compromised by the consumer culture, and Obama's message is for a return to older, higher standards of public life.

And the third has to be the rotten whiff of how people think about race, how insidious it is even in people who don't think they're influenced by subtle prejudices. I have the feeling that this election, among other things, is a referendum on just how we feel about race these days. I think it's sad that more people didn't make the move to Obama until this latest financial crisis affected them personally. It's too bad that most people are so incapable of seeing the general good past their own self-interest, that questions about race hung (and hang) in the air so long. Given our history, perhaps I shouldn't have expected more to happen this soon.

That said, it is reassuring to me that the WaPo poll is showing some movement in O's direction. However, that also means that the McCain campaign now has fewer options than ever before, and that they will have to go deeper and deeper into the negative campaign trick-bag. I suspect that'll backfire

Unless McCain really does mean that he'll put country before self, and tell Steve and the other Rovian disciples to go fuck themselves. I'd love to hear the real maverick, who would be able to say "If we lose, we lose, but we won't drag the country down with us."

Of course, that is the one thing that could turn his campaign around. Absent a complete change of campaign staff, I think it's too late and hope he doesn't take my amateurish advice.

That's kind of my point. There is always a small percentage of Americans who see things for what they are and these days they inhabit political blogs.

Beyond that, the modern American electorate has always been very hard to predict and potential landslides have never showed up in the polling results before hand.

I also convinced that the polls very methods are what is throwing things off this particular year in a way that hasn't been true in years past. I have never seen what we are seeing this year in the 20 years I have been eligible to vote.

It is simply unprecedented, so I expect the polls to be off by as little as five points and perhaps as much as 10 or 15.

November 4th should be a hoot.

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Some of do worry about the number of Americans who are Mythological nationalists, not plain nationalists. You can't reason with someone who demands mythology, and only mythology.

True, but I think the realists are finally coming out the play (myself included) which may help mitigate the damage the mythologists have done over the last 40 years or so. Better late than never.

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This poll makes it clear that if the Dems had any sense they would realize that by stretching out the hearings on the Great American Bank Robbery aka Wall Street Welfare program or "bailout" it would keep the public focused on the economy and give them the advantage all the way till election day. I will not be holding my breath that they have the sense or presence of mind to do so.

How does "Happy Days Are Here Again" go?

Please don't jinx this!

I hope the Post poll is accurate today and a reflection of the actual results in six weeks. But it's a bit of an outlier compared to the others and there is lots that can and will happen between now and election day. Obama needs to keep plugging away and keep nailing McShame to the wall. And all of us who want to see an Obama administration need to be going all out.

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Don't count your chickens before they hatch. People still have to show up at the polls, wait in line, and cast a vote. If they think it's a shoe in for Obama, then motivated Republicans will try even harder to get out the vote, and Democrats will rest on their laurels.

I don't know how this mess with the Banking larceny bill of 2008 is good news for anyone.

I'm not saying I don't generally agree with your "we have a long way to go" sentiment, but if the poll was the other way you'd probably be saying that we're sunk because everyone wants to vote for the winner (I heard people expressing just that sentiment two weeks ago). Do we Democrats consider anything good news?

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Without a doubt this is the strangest election cycle I have witnessed, and it is due to the superficial and whimsical MSM.

Historically, I would expect that this financial crisis to carry the Dems through to Nov. 4.

However, the MSM will react to Obama's rising poll numbers in ways that will slow the voters' pace to decision making, again tamping down Obama's expectations and raising those of the current underdog, McCain.

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You are dead on about how the media will frame this. That is precisely what happened during the primaries when they insisted on talking about votes instead of delegates when saying Hillary had won!!

Once Hillary loss 11 consecutive primaries in Feb, she was finished. the news never said such.

They always threw in superdelegates to make HRC look competitive.

Hillary never once led in delegates!!

She also did not win TX, NV, VA, or PA...she lost those states but all the news talked about were her votes when did not count. only delegates counted.

If it had of been football, it would have been like talking about total yards gained by the losing team vs. the points on the score board by the winner.

So, yes indeed, the media will slow the decision making and create all types of tangents and irrelevant criteria as measures of importance that have zilch to do with the actual progress of the candidates.

Well, I happy to hear Obama is doing better than Kerry and Gore. They both lost.

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Actually, Gore won and Kerry probably did too.

If the election is close we will lose again because the way the Republicans see it, they have the right to steal votes in a close one and thus keep power. Florida in 2000. Ohio 2004. All they need is a close election and it's their's to steal again.

oleeb: If they steal again (which they're already doing), Democrats need to shut this thing down and cause a constitutional crisis. The popular vote will actually be important this time bc we'll couple it with the vote fraud for Larry Tribe and David Boies' NEW Supreme Court case that they will win this time. If they don't win, and we don't get recount upon recount, then we'll find another way to shut this thing down.

KEEP IT UP FOLKS! We have to win by 10%, to make them let us win by 3%.

When will a Democratic governors (specifically Ted Strickland and Jennifer Granholm) start calling out the National Guard to protect voting centers from thugs who want to intimidate minority voters? You go out to scare away poor and minority voters, you spend 24 in the clank, and face prosecution after that. Also, where are the 527 ads lambasting the Republicans for their organized effort to repeal the 15th Amendment one princinct at a time? They're campaign against voter fraud is one of the biggest frauds of all time (Indiana passed a law to prevent at type of voter fraud that has never been ALLEGED at any time in American history, because showing up pretending to be a different registered voter is the dumbest idea ever if you want to rig an election).

That should be "a Democratic governor," obviously.

We have to win by 10%, to make them let us win by 3%.

Good point. Run up the score. Just to keep the thievery from working.

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It's the only way actually.

If it is close they can plausibly steal an election. If it is a blowout and the margin is just too big the theft would not be credible.

It's very unlikely that this financial crisis will continue to be an issue for much longer. It's shifting into the policy-making realm, which is difficult to understand and doesn't offer the drama that the MSM needs on the front pages.

I would bet that there will be at least 4 more "big things" (at least "big" according to the MSM) before election day.

Remember, we haven't even had the debates yet.

How does this square with your post yesterday? Then it was all about "white privilege" (whatever that means). Progressives have a difficult time looking past issues of race because, given this country's history, anti-racism assumes its own, inarguable moral entitlement. Lord knows, delusional sanctimony is a huge component of any political content. But the big news in this election is that an African-American is leading the race for the Presidency. That's the story. Maybe it's time for the Left to reconstruct its template. Hanging on to long-abandoned barricades have rendered it all but irrelevant.

It's the economy, stupid, is the theme right now. Next week it may be the end of oil or the war on terrorism. Maybe even the surge. What is making this race close is the rise and fall of domestic v. foreign policy issues. CIC or the military v. CIC of the domestic economy. We'll be on this roller coaster until November. As the current polls clearly show, race is not going to be the deciding issue this year. McCain is going to have to get a lot better on the economy or sell the Islamic Jihad theory, or Obama is going to blow it out.

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Sorry SanFernando, but an African American will not lead in the race for Presidency until Obama is sworn in on Jan 27th 2009.

Until then Obama is losing and subject to any type of unprecedented scurrilous attacks up to and including those which will prevent him from inhaling another breath.

So, let history be written on Jan 27th 2009. The only historic fact today is that an African American won the nomination of a major party.

Everyone just needs to stay focused and fighting and doorknocking and fundraising until those polls close on nov. 5th.

agree with wvbiker on...."the MSM will react to Obama's rising poll number in ways that will slow the voters"....

our local media broadcast likes to slice-and-dice the news footage, holds Obama & Dems to a higher standard and then backstabs them with glowing Republican counter attack by McCain et al (including Bill Clinton). The MSM also aids, abets, and manufactures fake outrage for their self-interest and on the behalf of McCain, R's, and white women voters.

although, looking back on the Saddleback Q&As with Rev Rick Warren, Obama is probably glad he has a 2nd chance to improve, going forward....

This morning on NPR, they played a clip from a blue collar Obama supporter in PA lamenting that Obama was going to take away everyone's guns. Why didn't they say "but he's said he's not going to take your guns. His position is that you can keep uzis out of the hands of inner city gangs without preventing law abiding citizens from owning guns for hunting and home protection"? Because they want a close election, that's why.

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Love ya MJ but honestly... are your moods entirely dictated by shifts in the polls! You post ecstatic triumphalist stuff whenever Obama wins one and doom and gloom whenever McCain sneaks ahead. I'm worried about these wild mood swings!

I'm worried about his fixation on racism, which, according to the polls he cites, is rapidly disappearing from American politics. What will you do without it, MJ?

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There is no fixation on racism. Racism is a fact of American life. It is insidious, subliminal and enduring. It just is.

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I wonder if this dude lives in the South like me? If he did, he wouldn't claim that race isn't a factor. It's a HUGE factor.

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I am heartened to see those particular poll numbers. Polls are nice to watch trends but I don't put too much stock in polls. Hell according to the exit polls Kerry won in '04. So the polls weren't right even on the day of the election. But overall the poll numbers in the last week show a swing towards Obama...which is a good thing. Long way to go though...

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If you take the Realclealpolitics "poll of polls" average and remove the ABC poll's +9, the average of all the others is only +2.3, which, I believe, is a statistical tie. In this context the +9 looks a tad anomalous considering how this race has been running up till now.

"Statistical tie" in Republican-speak means "the 2.5% we can intimidate & steal."

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It might mean the Bradley effect among white Democrats, which is said to be about 6%

6%? Not a chance. The Primaries poked so many holes in the Bradley Effect that it's essentially meaningless now.

We are going to win. Hands down. The future of the country depends on it.