Response to Etzioni and Ish-Shalom

Mr. Ish-Shalom uses the term "reality check" but it is clear to me that both he and Prof. Etzioni are far out of touch with reality. The latter admits to cognitive dissonance when he indicates that people told him, factitiously in the past, that Iraq was the wrong war, and Afghanistan the right war, but then admits that both wars have ceased to elicit major criticism from the two presidential candidates.
Iraq is stabilizing; now the debate is over whether the new, positive phase was brought about by "the surge," or by the inevitable alienation of ordinary Sunnis from Wahhabi jihadism, which I had predicted from the beginning. The latter was "the number one lesson from Iraq," and not anything derived from U.S. policy decisions.
Prof. Etzioni has a right to his opinion that the U.S. is trapped in Iraq but this view is by no means unanimously held or even very widespread any more. The claim that "a conventional army is no match for guerrilla forces" is exactly backwards, as history shows. Clausewitz had it right - guerrilla forces only succeed when they have the assistance of a regular army or government. Guerrilla forces were defeated in the Philippines and Malaya after the second world war, and in Peru more recently. The provision of a safe haven for guerrilla operatives is not sufficient to ensure victory: the Greek Communist guerrillas were defeated although they had safe havens in Albania, Yugoslavia, and Bulgaria, at various times.
A third war has indeed begun in Pakistan. It was prepared and launched by the Taliban and their Pakistani enablers, as every informed and honest Muslim in the world is aware, and began some years ago. That is why an important part of it now involves horrific massacres of Shia Muslims in the frontier area of Parachinar, for which the U.S. or neoconservatives bear no imaginable responsibility.
Prof. Etzioni either misuses the term "narco-terrorism state" or libels the government of Hamid Karzai. How does Karzai's state support "narco-terrorism"?
No neoconservative ever predicted that a "picture perfect prosperous democracy" would be established in any former dictatorship, whether rightist or leftist. Democratization is a process, and it may happen quickly or slowly. The closest democracies to picture perfection have emerged in Portugal, Spain, the Philippines, Chile, the Baltic states, the Czech Republic, Slovenia, South Korea, Taiwan, Croatia, and Mexico. Many others have had a much harder road to follow. Prof. Etzioni asks if we remember the Northern Alliance. Remember Salazar, Franco, Marcos, Pinochet, the Soviet politburo, the Czech Communist bureaucrats, Milosevic, Roh Tae Woo, the Kuomintang, Tudjman or the PRI?
Neoconservatives were secondary figures in debates over the definitive outcome in these countries, except for Wolfowitz on the Philippines and the neoconservatives in general when dealing with the ex-Soviet states and ex-Yugoslavia. Nobody ever seriously suggested that the neoconservative aim in Iraq was to establish a "picture perfect prosperous democracy," in the short term. Rather, it was to remove a dangerous dictatorship and begin a process through which the influence of Iraq could promote change in Saudi Arabia and Iran. Discontent with radical Islam is rising in the Saudi kingdom, as is repulsion against the Ahmadinejad regime in Iran, in both cases because of the success of elections and free media in Iraq, as well as Iraqi Sunni repudiation of Wahhabism and Iraqi Shia rejection of the Khomeinist heresy of clerical governance.
As for Mr. Ish-Shalom's musings, neither Iraq nor Afghanistan can be described as "failed states" or "authoritarian semi-regimes." I wonder if Mr. Ish-Shalom has any idea what a "failed state" looks like. Serbia is a good example. So are Belarus and Uzbekistan. Sudan is close enough. And Russia is a much better example of an "authoritarian semi-regime."
Let's look at the trope about Iraq and Afghanistan "pulling in terrorist networks." When one confronts a disciplined, ideological enemy one often finds that the foe is able to pull in more troops and allies than bystanders expected. War against Nazi Germany at first resulted in the fall of France and integration into the Axis of all of Western Europe except Iberia, Switzerland, and Sweden. War against Japan produced anti-Western puppet governments in the Philippines, Indonesia, Indochina, and Burma, elements of which in some cases survived to participate in governance after the war ended. Of course war against Saddam and Al-Qaida and the Taliban drew more jihadist recruits to the enemy's side. To have expected otherwise would have been absurd. Readers of Saudi media noticed appeals to fight in defense of Saddam in Iraq as soon as the U.S.-led intervention began.
Mr. Ish-Shalom dislikes the idea that "we need to force democracy at gun point, or that democracy promotion is a task for the United States." Well, we forced democracy at gun-point on the Axis, and before that we helped run French imperialism out of Mexico soon after our own civil war. Other examples are at hand. Democracy promotion has been the essential global task of the United States since the foundation of the republic.
Mr. Ish-Shalom is welcome to have faith in the so-called "international community." I lived under the so-called "international community" in Bosnia-Hercegovina. The outcome was 13 years of stagnation, unemployment, and frustration. How has the "international community" done in Gaza and the West Bank?
The "right peace" is a peace based on freedom. Americans have always put freedom before peace. That is what distinguishes us from Europeans and numerous others. Freedom first, not security first, which is merely, as I have written elsewhere, Prof. Etzioni's sanitized revision of the isolationist ideal of "America First." What is "in the cards" is the inevitable "vision" of world-historical events for 200 years: successful, global bourgeois revolution.














I see that your Schwartz is bigger than mine.
September 23, 2008 9:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Um, why is a lunatic posting here? Etzioni is wrong because he's too illiberal, you don't need to recruit a psychotic to argue with him, you need to find an actual liberal foreign policy thinker.
September 23, 2008 9:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you, Destor.
September 24, 2008 10:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
I found Schwartz's piece remarkable because he has drawn exactly the WRONG conclusion from every event cited in his piece. Iraq is hardly model for anyone, particularly Iran. Can you imagine this conversation in Tehran: "I hate our government, so I want democracy like Iraq. All I have to accept is ethnic cleansing, daily car bombs, insufficient potable water, little electricity, and death squads walking the streets. Bring it on."
What I love about neo-cons is that they are incapable of learning any lessons from history. It's always Munich. Hitler. Chamberlain. 1938. Repeat.
September 24, 2008 3:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
It gives one a reassuring sense of the continuity and durability of the past to see that there are still neoconservative old warriors around willing to fight the Bad Fight. Where would we be if we didn't have you guys to kick around anymore?
But such Manichean dualities! You really outshine most of your fellow-travelers in the battle for moral clarity and against evil moral relativism and cowardly peacenikism. I always thought you were just a phony Muslim, Mr. Schwartz. But now it turns out you are more like a phony Zoroastrian. Are you auditioning for a Mel Gibson movie?
I don't want to rag on poor Karzai, and if you define Karzai's "state" as a small bubble that exists in the immediate vicinity of Karzai himself, and doesn't extend very far into the rest of Afghanistan, then it is true that that state is not a narco-terrorist state. I suppose one might also say it is not a failed state, unless one counts failure to govern Afghanistan as a sign of failure tout court. Perhaps we can say more optimistically that Karzaistan is spectacularly successful at governing the Potempkin-bubble it occupies.
Extending beyond Karzaistan into Afghnaistan, though, I'm at a loss to understand the idiosyncratic criteria according to which Afghanistan is less a failed state than a place like Serbia. I always thought states were entities that were supposed to deliver things like a reasonable material standard of living, protection from crime, protection from external attack, functioning infrastructure and services etc. Now Serbia certainly has its problems. But really, Afghanistan is a more successful state? I guess the idea is that the Serbs are Evil and Afghans enjoy a sort of spiritedly violent anarchic "freedom", just like the Old West. Yee-hah!
September 23, 2008 10:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
For a man without a state, Karzai sure makes the rounds. Puppets do that, you know.
September 24, 2008 4:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why in the hell is TPM Cafe allowing a neocon like Stephan Scwartz to post articles here. He has nothing to offer to this discussion. He is an exTrotskyist, current Moslim convert that wants the US military to battle his Moslem enemies. He is f*ing nuts.
September 23, 2008 11:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why in the hell is TPM Cafe allowing a neocon like Stephan Scwartz to post articles here. He has nothing to offer to this discussion. He is an exTrotskyist, current Moslim convert that wants the US military to battle his Moslem enemies. He is f*ing nuts.
September 23, 2008 11:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
We've been asking TPM for actual liberal foreing policy voices (liberals would have a lot to argue with Etzioni about) but this is what we get instead -- raving lunatics.
September 24, 2008 9:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
Neo-cons proliferate like roaches. And like roaches they will outlive us all. David Frum was actually blaming the financial crisis on the government, not Wall Street, a few days ago. I'm surprised that he didn't blame it NK or Iran. In our hearts, we know they are responsible. Only he's brave enough to say it.
September 24, 2008 3:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Schwartz is correct about it being a myth that conventional forces can not defeat guerrillas forces. Even in South Vietnam, the US and ARVN (South Vietnames forces) ended up seriously weakening the Viet Cong forces after the Tet Offensive of February 1968 which was a devastating defeat for the VC's, even though it ended up being a political victory. South Vietnam might have had a good chance of surviving had
(1) The US not pulled the plug on economic support of the country after the cease fire of 1973
(2) President Nixon not been weakened by the Watergate scandal
(3) The USSR had not decided it was in their interest to pour BILLIONS of dollars of conventional arms (which they really couldn't afford) into the North Vietnamese Army which ended up defeating the ARVN, not by a "guerrilla" uprising, but rather a World War II-style conventional war with artillery, aircraft, tanks and infantry.
September 24, 2008 1:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
You aren't seriously still fighting the Vietnam war are you? No matter how it came about we still lost that one.
September 24, 2008 2:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, he is. Obviously, you don't watch Rambo movies. We won.
September 24, 2008 4:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh yea! My bad. I actually enjoyed "Son of Rambow" much more. A touching story about little boys and their war toys.
September 24, 2008 5:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Iraq is stabilizing..."
Inter-religious ethnic cleansing, which really accounts for most of the bloodbath, has abated - since the fragmented Iraqi factions temporarily have run out of people to kill or forcibly deport. If history is any indication - and it always is - this deceptive calm will be followed by the strongest groups striking, or surging, from their home bases to violently control surrounding real estate.
"...Both wars have ceased to elicit major criticism from the two presidential candidates.
The financial catastrophe momentarily has diverted attention. McCain never wanted to seriously talk about the war, anyway, except to make muttered assertions that the surge is "working."
But it isn't. Every laptop bombadier knew putting more boots on the ground would temporarily tamp violence. But Bush's announced intention for the surge last year was to buy time for the Iraqi government to unify and establish Western-style democracy in the battered nation.
In that respect, the surge is a monumental failure. The government of Nouri al-Maliki is chaotic, divided and shot with deadly intrigues. The only things upon which official Iraq can agree are to sock away all its oil earnings and push Bush for a timetable of American troop withdrawal. Al-Maliki continually embarrasses his American handlers with calls that we quit the country.
Neoconservative chickenhawks like you, Mr. Schwartz, are always ready to declare "mission accomplished."
Trouble is, the mission is never achieved, except that it serves the deceptive, disgusting neocon priority to station forever an American military force at Israel's flank.
September 24, 2008 2:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Cherokee areas also "stablized" after the Trail of Tears.
September 24, 2008 4:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, the US lost the Vietnam War, but I watched the series "Battlefield Vietnam" with a friend of mine who was a big anti-war activist and seeing the true military history of the war brought him to say that he and his fellow activists believed incorrect things..i.e. the Viet Cong was an alliance of native South Vietnamese Communists and non-Communist forces, the Viet Cong fighters were invincible guerrilla forces who wore black pajamas and lived on a handful of rice per day, and this guerrilla force defeated the powerful US military. This simply wasn't true. The North Vietnamese ran the war and eventually put the Viet Cong under their thumbs. Also, whereas I recall the media in the US constantly disparaging the ARVN and South Vietnamese leaders as being stupid and corrupt (as if Communists aren't corrupt), the program pointed out that there were competant ARVN commanders and South Vietnamese political leaders, JUST NOT ENOUGH OF THEM. The ARVN had major successes against the Viet Cong in starting with the Tet Offensive in 1968. Up until the cease-fire in 1973, the South Vietnames gov't continually increased the area under its control as the policy shifted from "search and destroy" under William Westmoreland to "clear and hold" under Creighton Abrams. However, it was not enough. The American people came to feel the cost of keeping South Vietnam going was just not worth it. It is also an open question whether it was worth going in there in the first place (why was the US able to accept a nationalist Tito as a Communist leader, but not Ho Chi Minh?). Yes, South Vietnam had structural weaknesses that prevented them from standing on their own, and yes the Viet Cong and North Vietnamese were very tough fighters, but they were not invincible and a guerilla force did not defeat the US military.
September 24, 2008 3:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's a long way of saying we were stabbed in the back, right?
September 24, 2008 4:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yep, the right is dusting off this old claim probably for the very good reason we have just lost another war. Iraq is lost. Afghanistan is now at that point where we can't win, but it will take a few more years for us to recognize defeat.
Since the US cannot never be militarily defeated, according to the extreme right represented by YBD, then they must now begin to concoct another stab in the back subversive. Hey you nuts, this might have worked for Hitler in 1924 but it hasn't worked in the West at all. France and England accepted defeat graciously, and now it is our turn to do the same.
September 24, 2008 6:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
I disagree with Mr. Schwartz’s other assertions but I would agree with the above statement in his post. There are perhaps only one or two instances when the guerrilla forces were successful. Cuba is one of them. The success came without any outside support. But the same group failed in other parts of South America.
Since the demise of Soviet Union, the guerrilla movements have pretty much folded all over the world except in Palestine, Pakistan, and Afghanistan. The source of the Palestine support is no mystery, but who is supporting the Taliban?
Arguably, the Vietcong and North Vietnam stayed in the war due to strong support from China and the Soviet Union. Without their support, VC and N. Vietnam would have folded under the enormous US pressure. But in the end, since the US had to leave Vietnam, the mission was a failure. Lipstick or no lipstick!
September 24, 2008 8:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
I sympathize with YDB (not with Schwartz who's just making a dishonest argument), who is put in the unenviable position of being correct tactically -- but to no strategic advantage.
Of course a guerrilla insurgency can be defeated; merely put an adequate number of troops in and accept the horrifying killing and maiming of civilians and the destruction of the country's economic and moral basis.
But success of that sort is never the question.
The question is whether from the point of view* of the inhabitants and/or those bearing the costs of the counterinsurgency the costs are worth the benefit.
* Which of those two different interests to accord priority to is, also, always an issue.
September 24, 2008 9:14 PM | Reply | Permalink