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Now Just Hold On, Hank

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Just a few quick, disjointed thoughts on the bailout, a plan that I, like others, view as fundamentally flawed.

First, the chutzpah of Paulson and the administration is astounding. They're saying to Congress, "you'd better do this quick, without conditions, or else!"

Hold on a second. The Treasury and the firms they are representing do not, I repeat, do not, have the bargaining clout here. We--the taxpayers and their reps--do. They're coming to us saying, "we've screwed up and need you to pick up the pieces to the tune of $700 billion." And they've got the brass ones to try to muscle us around about it?!? If Pelosi and company can't get the spine to ignore this muscle play and craft a better plan, then they're not doing their jobs.

And it's not just a matter of getting some useful quid pro quos, like a stimulus package and the authority to renegotiate new payment plans for homeowners facing default.

The plan is internally inconsistent. If we--the taxpayers--pay the market value for the toxic waste, asset writedowns continue and we're likely still in the soup. If we pay above market value, we own a lot of overpriced junk. And it will be that much harder to recoup our losses if we're overpaying in the first place.

As others have said, better to trade debt for equity. That is, we'll buy your bad debt but we get some guarantee that if this works and you get back on your feet, we get paid back.

The plan also suffers from too little transparency--what are the decision rules for the debt purchases?--and too little accountability--why does Paulson want and need unfettered authority? It's shortcomings like these that got us into this mess in the first place.

Also, as Bob Kuttner suggested, two years is too long a horizon for this legislation. How about six months and then a rigorous review?

So please, Congress, don't get pushed around. They don't have us over a barrel. If they really need our help to stay alive, then they'll have to accept our conditions, or at least begin to negotiate in good faith.

Take a breath, Congress, and start negotiating a better plan.


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The events of the last week showed the urgency of dealing with the financial crisis. There is a real risk that the banking system will freeze up, preventing ordinary business transactions, like meeting payrolls. This would quickly lead to an economic disaster with mass layoffs and plunging output. Dean Baker

I think Mr. Bernstein should be talking with Mr. Baker.

There's no time! There's no time to negotiate! TWAWKI is about to end!

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Ellen, your suggestion that "No one believes Henry Paulson except Dean Baker" is flat wrong and ridiculous, and you know it.

The paragraph you quote was Dean's preamble to a very detailed plan he laid out prior to Treasury's plan being "leaked" this weekend.

In the same thread, once Treasury's plan was out, Dean Baker himself added a post saying it was a sham. (This just 2 hours after he started the thread.)

Folks,

the bailout proposal that Paulson has put forward is a blank check. It would outrageous if Congress approved it in its current form. This is the domestic equivalent of the Iraq war authorization.

The threat of financial collapse is analogous to the weapons of mass destruction. The markets will wait. Congress can give a proposal with real conditions and then it will be Bush's call if he wants to be responsible for collapsing the U.S. economy.

You made a sarcastic reply to Dean's post.

Since then, Dean has created 3 or 4 new threads, all questioning the urgency and/or motivations behind this bailout plan.

You are behaving like a troll, Ellen.

-- ARG

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Hmm.

So, what happened between we're-all-gonna-die and the "markets can wait."

Any explanation for the volte-face, if it is?

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What happened, basically, is that Paulson tipped his hand.

First, his proposal was made public, with its breathtaking reach and lack of oversight or accountability. Combine that with his separate statement that any provision to limit CEO pay would be a "poison pill" (along with others out their repeating the mantra that they need "a clean bill"), and it suddenly looks more like a power grab and less like it's truly The End of the World as We Know It.

As I've posted elsewhere, we've seen this movie before. (More than once.)

And Dean gets credit for calling it right, once he read Paulson's proposal.

The fact that the neo-con-men are using this crisis to make a play for more sweeping executive authority does not mean there isn't a crisis.

But either it isn't quite as bad/urgent as they initially claimed, OR they should be able to accept any reasonable terms and conditions Congress might add.

-- ARG


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Let's call a truce.

I have a question.

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TWAWKI is about to end!

How do we know TWAWKI is about to end? We don't know what we don't know. But we do know we don't know much. We don't even know if G-B-L has or has not contributed to ending TWAWKI, (although we know Lyndon LaRouch does not know anything, but apparently channels it anyway.) Anyway, my guess is it did not, and the reasons for the sudden uptick in death rates for broker-dealers compared to the banks has more to do with the 'net capital rule'. No security there...

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Hold ON! The Miscreant Brokers and Bankers have kidnapped the Economy, and the Money Supply, and they are saying if we don't pay a ransom they are going to start cutting off its appendages and mailing us the bloody pieces one at a time. I mean, Bunny Economy owed money all over town!

This process began with the Bear Stearns little toe. And Big Daddy Paulson has been stepping up each time with the Moolah.

Wait a minute, this is beginning to sound like The Big Lebowski!

Where's da money Lebowski? We are Nihilists. We believe in Nuussing!!

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Pay us da money or we will cut off your Johnson!

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"Say what you will about the tenets of National Socialism - at least they had an ethos."

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And let's also not forget--let's not forget, Dude--that keeping wildlife, an amphibious rodent, for uh, domestic, you know, within the city--that isn't legal either.

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More like Paulson.

:-)

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Maybe some of these economists should take some basic physics courses and review the concept of reaction/recoil. The full faith and security of the United State has become a large bubble of debt, so taking on 700 billion+ to save Wall Street from its debt only further burdens the dollar. The stock market sank early last week, as everyone fled to treasuries, driving the yield to less then one percent. When this plan was proposed and the stock market shot back up, was that because everyone thought the worst was over, or was it because they were fleeing treasuries?

Can somebody please answer a question for me? Although this is being called a mortgage bailout, is it not true that what We The People would be buying would be 'bets' on mortgages, but not the actual mortgages themselves?

IANAE, TG (I am not an economist, thank god), but I do know the difference between real property and made-up financial tricks. Aren't we being asked to buy the latter? Where is the value?


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A lot of people seem to be arguing for equity position in exchange for bailing out firms. Why. Their most significant assets are paper, a lot of it toxic, and their reputations, now tattered. Is that kind of equity worth a trillion dollars?

There seems to be an awful lot of money pulling out of Wall Street with not many other places to go. See T-Bills rates and Nouriel Roubini is predicting a run on hedge funds is coming soon. Why not give all this money someplace else to go until things settle down. Since according to Krugman the line between T-Bills and currency has disappeared why not set up a new federal investment like a money market and use that to rework things to the extent possible?

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Or give the money to PNC or Northern Trust.

They -- and there are thousands of other banks in equally good shape -- don't seem to be having any problems. Businesses can put their payroll accounts in -- oh, my God! I don't believe I'm saying this! -- local banks.

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Did you see this?

Crude Oil Prices Up More Than $25.

Crude oil futures closed up $18.05 a barrel to $122.60. The rise in oil led a general flight to commodities as investors seemed to question whether the government’s $700 billion plan to buy troubled mortgage assets from banks would help spur the economy to a quicker rebound.


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I sold my energy fund a few weeks ago and was going out of my way not to follow the oil price.

Now, look what you've done -- ruined my day!

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Some of their assets are toxic paper, some are edible paper. If we take the former, we want the latter as well.

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I've been puzzled for a while over why Paulson -- for all his faults, a well-respected, tough negotiator -- proposed the bailout in such stark, undiluted terms without any sense that there would be a demand for oversight.

It has occurred to me that he never expected a lot of push back, because for the past seven or eight months he and Bernanke have been doing exactly what he's now proposing and there's been no protest. The Fed's "facilities" (TAF, TSLF, PDCF) have been handing money to Wall Street and taking back garbage in consifderation thereof for most of this year.

It's just now, the Fed -- a private company -- has run out of money and Paulson's got to come to the United States of America for additional bailout funding. I'm sure he thought, "The taxpayers are on the hook for any losses suffered by the Fed. They haven't protested before; why would they protest, now?"

"What's the diff?"

So, what is the difference?

I can't see a reason either, but that's no surprise as I'm in way over my head in this issue.

My gut says it was either myopia brought on by past successes across the board in this administration to go without oversight, and/or a very strong desire to go without oversight (which implies bad intent). The cries to "Hurry, Hurry!" support the latter - con artists always try to get you to move before you think.

I'm just hoping cooler heads prevail and - with the knowledge that perfection is unobtainable - hope for something fairly workable.

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The bail-out legislation needs to include the following:

"Any corporation that turns over more than $100 million in instruments to the United States or its assigns agrees that any and all corporate officers and members of its board of directors, holding those positions on or after June 1st, 2007, will not hold officer or board positions in any publicly-traded U.S. corporation for a period of ten years from the date of the transaction."

These people are demonstrably incompetent at their chosen field, and have a criminal disregard for their shareholders and their country. They have to be removed from the field.

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"The Meek Will Inherit Nothing."

*Frank Zappa

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Sub-prime crisis explained clearly:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mzJmTCYmo9g

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They're saying to Congress, "you'd better do this quick, without conditions, or else!"

I don't think it's quite that simple. There was a panic last week. The most important thing was to stop the hemorrhage. The markets rebounded, and we've bought some time, so now the bailout plan can be modified. I support your suggestions and believe that Congress should act to amend the plan. It's just important to draw the distinct between scare tactics and genuine fear.

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Rep. Barney Frank, the Financial Services Committee chairman, says a great deal of progress has been made in talks between lawmakers and President Bush's team on the rescue. AP, 9/22/2008 3:32 EDT

Death by a thousand cuts-- brought to you by your Democratic Congress.

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Ellen,

TWAWKI has moved. Up.

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Jared, all good points. These are all commonsense suggestions. However, no amount of add-ons and amendments to this stinking pile of garbage of a bailout plan will obviate its odious ramifications for the economy. This plan must be rejected. The simple fact is that the post-Bretton Woods floating exhange rate monetary system is DEAD. What we are seeing now is the putrification of that corpse. This isn't about some bad mortgages. I can't believe so-called economists fall for this BS. This death of the system is the result of:

-Nixon sinking Bretton Woods in '71.
-The (fake) oil shocks/shortages of the mid-70's that created the London-based spot market.
-Deregulation of transportation (trucking and airlines), the health industry (rise of the HMOs), energy, trade, banking, etc., - starting primarily with Carter and continued by every president since.
-Globalization - all the trade "deals" of the last 15 years. This country has ALWAYS protected its industry throughout its history, until Reagan. We've gone from averaging 25-40% tariffs to 2% today.
-Alan (Bubbles) Greenspan - Easy money, the hedge funds, dirivatives - Baby, anything goes that keeps the carrosel spinning.

All this has resulted in transferring manufacturing and wealth creation out of our country and also transferring enormous nominal paper wealth into the hands of the parasitical uber-rich upper few % - a few % that are many of the same "managers" and execs who are asking for a few trillion dollars to make their hangover go away.

No, the system is bankrupt and dead. There is no real Dr. Frankenstein (Paulson's role model?) to breathe life back into the corpse. He may get sexually aroused by the thought of so much money, but it will have no salubrious effect on the real economy - quite the opposite. It will drive a hyperinflationary spiral and just make a collapse even worse.

-Put the system in bankruptcy, similar to FDR's solution. Protect homeowners, pensions, chartered banks and employment.
-Write down the trillions of worthless paper bound up in the dirivatives Ponzi scheme. The amount of money being promised back and forth among international financial institutions dwarfs that of the real world physical economy.
-Get Russia, China, India and the US together to create a new Bretton Woods fixed Exchange rate system, updated to today's realities.
-The Treasury and US Congress can then utter credit (the US constitution created a credit creating system of government, as opposed to the European central banking model - which is accountable to no government) to re-start productive investment in the real physical economy - food production, transportation and energy projects, other needed infrastructure.

An FDR program is required. It is the only thing that will work. Obama has to be the second coming of FDR. No neo-liberal program will work. Right now, he advocating neo-liberal solutions. That will make him another Hoover, not another FDR.

None too happy about it over at the WSJ, either.

http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2008/09/22/mean-street-shut-up-and-give-paulson-what-he-needs

I think it's time for a real change.

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I need someone smarter than I to answer this question:

The amount of loans that a financial institution can make is based on 1) its capital base and 2) the leverage (debt-capital) permitted by the law or its Board of Directors.

Assume that financial institutions which would take advantage of the Paulson bailout are insolvent or at the least, extremely capital constrained.

How does buying assets increase the capital base and allow increased lending? Converting junk into an equivalent amount of cash doesn't change the balance sheet. Indeed, if the assets being sold are priced below what they are presently carried at on the balance sheet, capital will be reduced and therefore, lending power will be reduced.

Anybody?

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Answer: it doesn't. All it does is help keep the firm solvent. This is why Krugman, for example, is saying it's not clear how the plan is supposed to work.

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Let me say up front that I don't think I'm any smarter than you are, Ellen.

Your question goes to the heart of the problem, and I think SqueakyRat has it about right.

What I'm hearing from the talking heads on my TV -- actually reading between the lines to some degree -- is that the market for these "distressed assets" is frozen.

They are making the case that no one in the free market is willing to pay what these assets are really worth, due to fear and/or a lack of transparency in terms of what the assets consist of.

So, the argument goes, the government must step in to provide a market and set a price.

An example might be (and I'm pulling these numbers out of an orifice) that some bundle of loans currently has a 9% default rate and is REALLY worth about 85 cents on the dollar, say. But the fear in the market is such that nobody is willing to pay any more than 15 cents on the dollar.

So, in that case, the trouble with the company's balance sheet is that difference between the 15 cents and the 85 cents.

But that's the problem with this whole idea. How much should the government pay for these things? And how will they decide? The reason the market is "frozen" is that nobody knows what these things are really worth.

And I think you are right: If the government pays no more than the company is currently valuing the asset on its balance sheet, then the "health" of that company's balance sheet will not improve. (And it's far more likely the company in this example would be using the more optimistic 85 cent number on its balance sheet.)

-- ARG

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"If Pelosi and company can't get the spine to ignore this muscle play and craft a better plan, then they're not doing their jobs."

Well, hell. We KNOW they aren't doing their jobs already.
Don't think I could get anybody to give me particularly good odds on that switching up in time for the clinch play.

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Definitely rec'd!

These guys (Paulson, et. al.) have no shame. They'll take the money, thank you very much. What use for the money? Well, they're not quite sure. Why $700 billion? 'Cuz it's a big number.

And at first, their suggestion was that the taxpayer simply buy up their toxic debt.

I'm no investment banker or economist, but I found myself throwing my shoe at the TV as this unfolded. "Hey, wait just a minute! Where's the quid pro quo here? Or are we simply supposed to buy assets that might return, at best, a mere fraction of our 'investment'?"

Also, it was stated that the housing price bubble was at the root of the problem. Were we not in fact being asked to subsidize the high home prices and simply forestall the necessary market adjustment with this "investment?"

The James Gang robbed banks, and they used guns to force the issue. Now we have banks robbing us, but instead of guns, they use their own greed and self-serving arrogance coupled with a compliant Congress.

Methinks it's time to instead tell these jackasses to get out of the way and place someone in charge who's actually working to correct the problem rather than line their own pockets.

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Cap markets are unstable. In the past there was no way to make them stable. But today we have computer power that can be used to make them stable. By using the greater computer power of today we can have a much higher turn over of cap in the cap market. This higher turnover will make the market harder to fix or control and the market will no longer have the unstable run ups or declines. Who can change or control the market when say 20% of the capital is trading each day. So now that we have the compute power to provide for all these transactions that will smooth out the market how to we force people to turn over at a rate of 20% a day? Easy, put a cap gains tax of 0% (zero) on all gains of 7 days or less and put a cap gains tax of 90% of all gains of 7 days or more. The likes of Yahoo Micosoft and/or Sun Micro Systems will give us the systems that will provide automated software agents to support turning over one's investments every 7 days (based on the specs you give the agent). A system like this will make the financial markets work as smoothly as the local fruit market.

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Seems like Jared has done a 180 turn since joining the Obamanation - considering his recent comments on Krugman et al.

Jared, we are waiting for ppl like you to show your backbone. Would you pls do us all a big, BIG favor?

Follow Geithner after a staff meeting sometime, when he goes in to drain the lizard. Grab his candy-*ss wall-street minion behind and shove his head into a toilet. Then flush, flush, flush shoving his face in, and scream "LOVE AND KISSES FROM YOUR PALS ON TPM FA**OT!!!"

thanks pal.

and dude. gotta say it. You are way hotter than Bradly Whitford. Just saying.

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