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Moral Hazard

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Three years ago, my brother-in-law Ira, an accomplished blacksmith in North Carolina, called to ask my advice regarding a home equity loan. He was considering buying an adjacent property and needed about twenty-five thousand dollars. Ira owned his own small house and forge, which were free of any mortgages or liens, and he was old enough to be pretty much on a fixed income. Now, equity lines go up and down with the prime. So I figured, why not a 30-year fixed mortgage? Then he would know precisely what he'd be obligated for, month-in, month-out, and might even pay off his credit cards.

Ira's local bank, Wachovia, was not willing to hold this kind of paper anymore, which did not exactly surprise me. I had been an editor at the Harvard Business Review in the late 1980s when the securitization of debt, including (after the S&L crisis) mortgage debt, was first being touted as the next big thing for retail banking and the word "global" began to mean something serious. So--purposefully, and with a certain pleasant curiosity about a maturing financial product I had seen at its conception--I started calling around to various mortgage companies: 800-numbers that got me to offices (with the background noise of call-centers) in Texas or Minnesota or Hawaii.

This cheerful offer, of course, got my attention. There was no way Ira could afford such payments and no reason, given his circumstances, for the loan to have been entertained. I was skeptical, but not greatly alarmed--not the way I was when,say, West Bank settlers went to the hills above Nablus in 1976. This offer seemed to me just another way for the Mikes of the world to cash in on a boom, you know, like the real estate agents in LA a few years before. I felt vaguely happy for them.

Now, of course, I see this was the DNA of the monster that ate Wall Street and is still hungry. (Ira took the smaller equity loan.) And my point, which is not terribly original, is that Mike had no incentive to judge Ira's capacity to repay because he was not exposed to what economists (pretentiously) call "moral hazard": he had no stake in the risk of a default, only a positive benefit from the size of the loan. As with the managers and share-holders of Fannie Mae et al, he profited from the upside, while the downside was, in effect, insured by all of us.

Then again, I am writing this (quietly) from my wife's bedside at Mass General, where she is recovering from knee-replacement surgery, funded in large measure by Medicare. If the hospital suggests discharge on Wednesday instead of Tuesday, will I say no? The extra five grand is, shall we say, insured by us all; there is a moralizing hazard, too, which I would feel a little odd indulging in just at the moment. By the way, thirty-percent of what we pay to medical providers during our lifetimes comes in our last year of life. Imagine the size of Medicare's "bail-out" when boomer spouses have to decide on when to pull the plug, with others (that is, "us all") footing the bill?

Let me be clear. I am not upset that the bail-out is happening. It had too, just like the S&L bail-out did. The commonwealth is, among other things, a kind of insurer of last resort, the enabler (writes Adam Smith) of "commerce in general." I am not even upset that our Mikes made a buck. I am vaguely sorry, of course, for the people who, unlike Ira, recklessly took easy mortgages, or put "extra" money into mutual funds. But these people are now creating a good day for young home buyers (like my children), bankruptcy lawyers, etc. Nor am I particularly nervous about global capital not flowing back to our shores again, and fairly soon. What will the freshly-minted MBAs--the Mikes of the Kuwaiti or Chinese sovereign wealth funds--do with ten trillion dollars over the next decade? Invest in Ghana?

What I would be upset about is five foot leaps over seven foot pits, the continuing (mostly Republican) pretense that the prerogatives of commonwealth are temporary or do not legitimately exist: that the insurance the commonwealth provides comes along with dumb freedoms parading as market freedom. (Imagine a bail-out for car insurance companies in a roads system without traffic lights.) Paul Krugman shrewdly observes that the commonwealth has a right to own and manage a good part of what it invests in. People who arguing for accountability should not fatuously be accused of socialism.

If insurance is a good thing, and government is a legitimate insurer, then we must end (to the extent that we can) triangular relations where the gainers of service have no stake in the cost of service; where people profit without moral hazard. This means more than new, harsh financial regulations for mortgage buying, or rules for banking. It means, also (finally), single-payer health insurance, as in Canada, for example, where the buyers of health care negotiate with providers of health care in behalf of patients. It means government funded high speed train systems funded by gas taxes, so we are not all stuck with the catastrophes from global warming. It means more public universities, so we don't face an unemployment catastrophe in a generation. It means, in short, citizenship and social contract.


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Here's a question, speaking of moral hazard, that maybe the higher finance types can answer:

All the toxic sludge on Wall Street is (ostensibly) the result of people not being able to pay their mortgages/helocs and going into foreclosure, or selling houses for less than the debt amount and leaving the owner of the morgage-backed security or its derivatives holding the bag, right?

So what would happen if, instead of buying all the toxic securities at unknown prices, the Treasury instead announced that it would take over the unaffordable parts of mortgage/heloc payments for everyone who has gotten into a hole, in exchange for whatever portion of the property in question seemed appropriate, and would make up some portion of the shortfall in event of a sale? That would guarantee the funding stream that backs the securities, thus restoring them to their face values, no?

Or is there a different kind of moral hazard involved when you're an individual with one property than when you're a firm churning property-based bonds?

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The same thing dawned on me, paulw. And I speculated that the government shoring up bad loans would be cheaper than 80 billion also. My suspicion as to why this wouldn't work is that bad mortgages are no more than an indicator of a huge problem that is far beyond the mortgage crises, and fixing just that would have little effect.

When I ask myself "where did all this cash come from" I am yanked into a time warp to the early 1980s when the "oil glut" threatened the world economy. The preceding years of constant rise in price of petroleum products created shiploads of petrodollars - there was so much cash around that there were no qualified borrowers so the banks came up with the bright idea that national states were qualified, and titanic loans were made around the worlds to countries - the target being oil-producing nations who could easily service the loans as long as petroleum kept inflating in value. The bottom fell out with the oil glut, and the bad paper threatened to undermine the global eonomy. Tax payers of the US, Canada, Western Europe and Japan had to foot the bill.

That inflation was caused by artifical shortages, and this one seems to be the product of futures traders. Whatever, the product is a titanic amount of petrodollars floating in the economy. Russia, a major benefactor of energy inflation, has had its economy hit hard with general inflation, but has softened the blow by foreign investment. A lot of petrorubles has ended in the U.S. and has been a major source of the cash available to make risky loans.

At any rate, I'm just expressing skepticism that a mortgage bailout would meet the problem. The whole system seems to be in decay, and the Rx seems to be in tight regulation. That might reek of socialism - but so does the proposed bail-out.

I am guessing (based on what I have read so far about this issue) that homeowners debts have been packaged and sold to financial institutions, which in turn sold it to other institutions and companies like AIG have insured against the failure of the mortgage. So I guess if a lot of mortgages start to default, bad loans accrue on many balance sheets and AIG is left with a bunch of claims, which it cannot pay since I assume it did not foresee them or doesn't really have enough liquidity to pay everyone. Overall the entire financial system gets destabilized.
So I guess the government helping out only homeowners won't address the severe credit shrinkage issue. But probably the govt still needs to create some kind of advantage (equity) for taxpayers (shareholders of Sell Me Your Toxic Debt Co!).
The red flags are the usual scare tactics such as -- no congressional or judicial or any oversight; Do it NOW or else everything will collapse; opacity regarding the nature and extent of bad debts; what is criteria for buying back debt.
Most important though, what is the guarantee that, once we have passed this point where we have bargaining powers with Wall St, we can impose regulations to prevent this in future??

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Isn't moral hazard what Mike now(pre-crisis) faces because his irresponsible action of allowing a high risk loan to go through can have no negative consequences for him? The hazard is that his morals are too easily corrupted if he does not face consequences. It's why God created hell, or so they say.

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I think you are missing a paragraph here:

This cheerful offer, of course, got my attention.

What cheerful offer? And who is Mike?

Please sign this petition for Senator Sanders of VT.
He wants the bailout to be paid by the wealthy who caused this debacle. The dems could be put in a bad situation if they support the bill and hang it on the US taxpayers while the repubs decide to vote against it. This proposal would make more sense to support the middle class at the expense of the upper 1%. We needs millions of signatures to make it effective.

http://sanders.senate.gov/petitions/?petition=Financial_Crisis_1

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