Uncle Sucker
The Bush Administration is asking Congress to give it $700 Billion to buy up toxic mortgage debt based on a 2 1/2 page plan!
The request is just two-and-a-half pages and contains a broad outline of how this new entity would function. The government wanted to keep the plan simple, in part because it wants the flexibility to adjust what its doing as market conditions change, a person familiar with the matter said.
This is the equivalent of giving a venture capital firm a two page summary of your business and asking for $100 million of funding. God help us if Congress gets steamrolled into this. As the Journal writes, there are so many details to fill in.
The most ambitious part of the government plan is to create a new entity to purchase impaired assets from financial firms. The process could work as a type of reverse auction, in which the government would buy from the institution that sells its assets for the lowest bid.However, the government may find itself in a quandary: Does it pay more than fair-market value for hard-to-assess distressed assets, putting taxpayers on the hook for any losses? Or does it drive a hard bargain, buying for pennies on the dollar? The latter approach would further hurt financial institutions, since they would have to write down the losses and take additional hits to their balance sheets.
There is no mention of getting warrants from the firms like Goldman Sachs that we are going to be bailing out. There is no mention of new regulations to keep this from happening again. At least Pelosi has the courage to say slow down.
In working with the administration, we will strengthen the proposal by ensuring that the government is accountable to the taxpayers in any future actions under this broad grant of authority, implementing strong oversight mechanisms, and establishing fast-track authority for the Congress to act on responsible regulatory reform.














I am now wondering where the $700 billion will come from. We already run a deficit of hundreds of billions a year, so there certainly isn't any excess of tax dollars to spend on this. That means we borrow it, in the form of government securities sold, probably, to the Chinese government. Are they really dumb enough to finance this venture? And, can we survive long term with the Chinese government holding trillions of dollars of our securities?
A rational approach to this is a huge increase in the total income tax take, with all of it coming from the very high income sector, who are the very ones to benefit from the maladministration of the financial markets that led to this. But, we will be told that will exacerbate the recession. If so, so what? Isn't the alternative another great depression?
September 21, 2008 1:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/09/20/follow-the-money/ on where the money comes from makes sense after I thought about it. He also has a graphic that sorta helped. :-)
September 21, 2008 5:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
The longer this goes on, I think everyone is questioning why the rush. Fix it right the first time, don't keep throwing money at it that we can't afford . No blank checks or fuzzy guidelines, we should all know that we can't trust this Administration, the penalty we're paying for another blank check is the $10 billion a month we're bleeding in Iraq.
A new stimulus package for the middle class is chump change in this mix, also unemployment benefits need to be extended in this package and the lifetime cap taken off of TANF funds.
New laws and regulations now, not in 2009. If Bush threatens a veto, then he doesn't get the money. The bandits on Wall Street and in the White House should have very little to say about strings attached to any money, they screwed it up. Any elected representatives (of either party) voting for anything less than strong controls on Wall Street and the financial sector should beware of the old rallying cry;
We will remember in November !
September 21, 2008 2:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
Give the patient anti-biotic until a QUALIFIED group of experts have AMPLE time to diagnose and reccomend the best treatment.
We were Suckered into the looming mushroom clouds of Iraq by this administration. NOT THIS TIME!
The man overseeing the bailout is the ex-CEO of Goldman Sachs, a Wall Street Company. He helped cause the crisis.
Paulson helped obtain the SEC exemption which allowed brokerages to increase leverage to 60:1 from 12:1. need more? via FDL
The money is Paulson's to use for buying commercial and residential mortgages and mortgaged backed securities as he chooses.
No one has any oversight over him, and he can pay any price he wants to, including face amount of the debt.
Courts cannot review his decisions, nore can any regulators.
He has to report to Congress once every six months.
He gets 700 Billion dollars to use as he sees fit, looking after the taxpayer is a "consideration" not a requirement.
Bet on that 700 Billion dollars being gone before January 20, 2009. Bet on Treasury asking for more.
That is $2,324 dollars per man, woman and child in America
There is no bailout for mortgage holders.
Banks get bailed out, but not ordinary people.
Banks and brokerages made record profits these last eight years. Ordinary Americans barely broke even.
In 2007 Wall Street paid itself bonuses equal to the raises of 80 million Americans.
Banks bailed out by this plan need make no changes in how they do business.
Banks bailed out need not replace the management which drove them into insolvency.
Shareholders and bondholders of such banks do not lose a cent.
The securities which caused this crisis are still allowed.
Expect the 700 billion dollars to increase inflation, especially in oil.
Bush is asking you to trust his administration with 700 billion after spending 580 billion on the Iraq war. Do you trust him?
September 21, 2008 4:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
Mrjj
You summarize the request quite accurately.
Not only is Paulson using this crisis to advance his own personal agenda, but there is nothing that the governmet can do that will address the main problem that is causing this credit crises. That is falling real estate values. All of us must accept that a huge amount of Americas net worth has been and will continue to decline. That is the nature of asset bubles.
I watched my own home, that I paid 200K for 20 years back go to about 850K (in comparables) and now drop about 20% and the whole time wonder where does all this funny money come from and where does it dissappear. I received multiple offers to borrow against the appreciation during the bubble but could not understand why I should, since it appeared, when I first bought, that the whole object was to reduce the mortgage. I have done that. Now why should I help bail out those that speculated on this nutty bubble. Especially the Wall Street sharks as well the numerous real estate flippers in my own community that are now suffering.
All of us should resist this bail out. Protest. Write to your congressional representatives. This cannot be allowed to continue. Remember the imputus for this request is based on the panic many of us felt last Wednesday -- I felt it for sure, but sit back and think. This cure is much worse than last week's fever.
September 21, 2008 5:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
The taxpayer is being scammed on this. I have no doubt.
The principals in government and Wall Street are Bush people. We don't have even one reason to trust this crowd and a lot of reasons to mistrust them. I wouldn't give then a dime. And I would bet all this money will end up in the pockets of people who don't need it in the least.
Or if we have to. Not before all their books are wide open in their entirety and government has at least a couple of months to see what gives.
And Oh Yeah! It's our money. We get to know the details of whatever deal is struck. None of this secret shit.
Wall Street and our lawmakers in Washington screwed this up big time. There is no way to blindly give them $700B. That is flat out stupid.
September 21, 2008 5:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
We know these people are all absolute liars and incompetents.
Screw them.
September 21, 2008 5:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
Section 2 part a of the proposed legislation states:
"a) Authority to Purchase.--The Secretary is authorized to purchase, and to make and fund commitments to purchase, on such terms and conditions as determined by the Secretary, mortgage-related assets from any financial institution having its headquarters in the United States."
Mentioned here are "mortgage related assets" which is not really defined. Normally we think these are CDOs, CMOs or some type of mortgage backed security. The total value of this market is in the range of more than $5 trillion but less than 10. However, it sounds like it could also include credit default swaps (CDS). The total value of outstanding positions in this market is $62 trillion. That is not a typo. That is 6 times our current national debt and 4 times our GDP.
Most people when they first hear this number, and can wrap their minds around it, are dumbfounded. How could this have happened? Well Senator Grahm (sp? McMain's economic advisor) made sure that the CDS market would remain completely unregulated when he "reformed" Glass-Steagal. Believe it or not but the rest of the market was still regulated-- this is what happens in a completely unregulated market. (BTW it is the CDS positions that brought down AIG, it remains unclear to me how many trillion dollars the feds have to deal with in that mess).
September 21, 2008 7:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
I called and left a message for Hillary and sent a fax. It never does any good but I did it anyway. I asked for Paulson and Bernanke to be fired. They are the guardians of our econony and have failed miserably. They deserve to be fired.
Actually, if it were up to me I would fire the WH and congress and find some regular people that have proven track records for being honest and hire them. When you come right down to it McCain and Palin are both huge liars. That the voters are even entertaining the idea of having them lead the country is absurd. Bush is a liar and look what that got us.
Call your congresspersons and senators and leave a message and send a fax. All of them have local numbers in the locales they serve. I realize saying they serve us is an oxymoron. It's just a figure of speech.
September 21, 2008 7:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
The Fed doesnt appear to have gotten ANY daily, weekly, monthly, quaterly, semi anually, or yearly reports about this problem... It just so magically appears right before a Presidential Election.
They honestly think the voters are stupid.
There is $596 trillion in derivatives debt (Thank You, Sen Gramm), over $2.5 trillion in credit card debt, and $58 trillion in credit default swaps
http://www.wallstreetdigest.com/hotline.php
And now an important message from Concerned Citizen.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wJThPjvscFs
September 21, 2008 8:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
They saw it coming, they just wished they could push it onto the next administration, preferably a Dem so they would be demonized forever, but if it was an R, it would be okay, too.
September 21, 2008 8:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
this bailout is dwarfed by the Fannie/Freddie bailout a few weeks ago. The cost of that hasn't even been calculated yet, but it will be multiple trillions of dollars. The Bush Administration is trying to keep that off the federal books, because it would push our budget deficit way beyond the legal ceiling.
September 21, 2008 8:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
We been robbed.
If our Congresscritters pass this scam, we should all stop paying taxes. Massive taxpayer revolt.
September 21, 2008 8:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
That is exactly what I have thought.
It seems the only logical and the only available response that might actually wake these people up.
Citizens truly hold the power of the purse. An organized national taxpayer revolt that demands a truly balanced budget and real regulation of the financial sector might get the job done.
And I've no doubt that in spite of the laws on the books those laws are absolutely moot in light of the circumstances. Those laws stipulate a binding contract between the government and taxpayers and the government is in default of that contract.
If we are truly a democracy and if government is truly answerable to citizens no court could rule the government in compliance. It's a logical impossibility.
This is the ultimate remedy available to citizens. And in a court of law it would be rather simple to sustain the claim. Citizens weren't represented in the changes that have occurred in our laws that have allowed this. That would be easy to demonstrate. Just point to the outcome.
September 21, 2008 9:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
Of course we need safeguards to protect the American taxpayer and some way to make sure that the companies involved ultimately pay for their own bailout but those are minor concerns.
The most important assurance we need is that none of these jerks getting bailed out should ever lecture anybody about the virtues of free market capitalism ever again. If they do, it should be legal to punch them.
September 21, 2008 9:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm going to claim that this entire issue is really very simple. That it is simple and that the underlying failures are easy to understand is why it is being complexified by those who are the guilty parties.
The collapse was caused by too highly leveraged investments, the same thing that caused the crash in 1929. When you have a bet where one only needs to put up 3% (10% in 1929) then it only takes a small movement downward to generate a margin call. It doesn't matter what the entity that is being traded on margin is, it only matters how easily the margin call can be covered.
Such leveraged bets can never be covered by selling the underlying assets. It doesn't matter what the new settlement price is, the ratio between "value" and price is just to high.
The mortgage crisis is also very simple. Some fraction of loans have and will fail. Let's say 20%. These loans, unlike the bets between financial institutions, are backed by real assets. Even with a pessimistic projection that the home values should end up at, say, 70% of the original price on average. So we have a loss to the system of about 14% - a shock, but not fatal.
Any combination of re-adjusting the mortgages, an orderly selling of foreclosed properties (including keeping them in the bank's inventory until things settle down) and new capital to allow the banks to meet reserve requirements can do the trick.
There is no way to save the money of the financial margin players that's why they are tying the "crisis" to the unrelated housing downturn. Paulson has over $100 million in stock (not counting options) from his former firm. Notice that this is the one that will probably survive.
Any "bailout" for financial firms is really a way to pay back gamblers who lost their bets. It has nothing to do with preserving the housing market, or keeping the overall economy sound.
This type of misdirection worked for the S&L crisis and it will probably work this time as well. There is no way out of a Ponzi scheme without someone losing money. In this case the players are trying to make it the taxpayers.
September 21, 2008 9:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
This financial scandal happened because the Democratic Party has gotten too much like the Republican Party. From the Republicans we get "trickle down economics". From the Democrats we get "trickle down government." This might not have happened 40 years ago when the liberals controlled the Democratic Party. But today, Schumer, Clinton, Dodd, Biden, etc. aren't going to bite the hand that feeds them. I don't even trust Barney Frank anymore.
Both parties serve their masters on Wall Street; the bankers, fund managers, real estate investors, the credit industry, Insurance etc.
No solution to this problem will cause any angst in the finanical community. The Democrats will tell the Bush gang they need to make this "bi-partisan" so they will need a bone to throw to their constituents. The Bush gang will give the Dems some picyune help with people's mortgages or
some inconsequential tax cut and the Dems will fan out in television land and bloviate on the "Bi-partisan" wonders that have been accomplished.
But the people who caused this financial train wreck will pay nothing or next to nothing. The heads of Fannie and Freddie, Merrill Lynch, Bear Sterns, AIG, etc. will walk away with their ill gotten gains and never look back.
AND, look for a truckload of patronage in this package. I think this agreement will eventually make Jack Abramoff look like the Plutarch of Populism.
The "solution" to this tragedy will guarantee the sharks will be back in 10 years and it will be deja vu all over again.
In the words of that glorious paragon of integrity, Democratic Congressman Ozzie Meyers of Philadelphia;
"Money talks and bullshit walks."
September 21, 2008 9:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
The Bush family made its money in the investment business, much more than any oil business. I say that to say this. Watch out for where the sentiments of this presid1ent lie in the story of this financial crisis. He wants to have a bailout of this industry, on his terms, with massively increased powers for the executive branch, without oversight. After what he's done thus far, I don't want him to be given a blank check for $700 billion, without a lot of safeguards put in for my benefit, not his. I also want to see consequences for those who created this mess, such as loss of the gravy they scooped by doing it.
September 21, 2008 10:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
Let me confess up front that I have not sat down to really think all this thru. I probably could, and probably will at some point, but I haven't so far.
Here's the parts I HAVE thought thru (took about 15 minutes):
(1)Giving up what will almost certainly become 1 TRILLION $$ (that we actually don't even have) in real terms on the basis of a two-page "plan" is beyond crazy. (2)The point-people pushing this do not care about me (or you, or any other ordinary, everyday people). I'm not saying they actively wish us harm, I'm just saying they're temperamentally indifferent - just like the people on those New Orleans rooftops, they'll try to get around to us sooner or later, but we're not a priority. (3)It is simply irresistable to compare this scheme to the Iraq War issue: A poorly-articulated "pig in a poke", rushed thru without thought or examination on a false premise of immediate emergency.
I don't know what should be done. I actually don't HAVE to know, Thank Goodness: That's what I elect people to decide, and it's high time they earn their positions of public trust. If there really IS a genuine crisis, and we really CAN do something measured and constructive about it, fine - let's figure-out what it is, and get at it with all deliberate speed. But UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCES accept what this discredited Administration says at face value: It manages to combine deviousness with fundamental incompetence in a way unique in my experience. We would deserve whatever we get, if we allow them to jerk that football away one more time.
September 21, 2008 10:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
Remember, it was the financial racket underwriting both Bush campaigns. Remember it's the RNC base. The American solution, the only one we should be considering isn't on the table yet.
The government should offer to broker new loans for homeowners who have hit trouble spots but now faithfully pay. Republicans have run the government since the third year of Clinton, after a decade of RNC deregulation of these industries. Most Americans who bought homes in the booming '90s sustained the boom. Most, like me, properly expected to pay off their mortgages in time to save for retirement a few years.
Then Enron happened, which should have alerted us to the coming crisis led by Wall Street and abetted by the RNC. Then MCI, Tyco, et al. Which should have alerted authorities.
Now we have to bail 'em out? So the stock market can return to natural economics by protecting some stock prices ? And the RNC offers us a McCain commission to determine the best way for Wall Street to wriggle out of their mess without regulation? No public advocacy ? Bail me out! My ARM comes up in another year.
What's the CEO President's excuse going to be when we do get this finite but growing list of bad mortgages out of the economy and but the Wall Street behemoths are still tanking?
September 21, 2008 10:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
You can't point fingers that way. Obama has more money from the financial services industry than McCain -- true it's not lobbyist money per se. It's those personal campaign donations up to the limit that happen to come from financial services industry employees.
But who owns who isn't the larger issue here.
It's far more endemic than that because what this comes down to is a broad philosophical conflict between the Republican love of hands off big business style of government and the Democrats' (less than feeble) belief in the need for oversight and consumer protection.
Because the Democrats generally are just less than feeble, I think we all may as well spare ourselves some agony and give up the ghost right now, accept that we won't get a thing out of this bailout -- other than a long, slightly less precipitous, recession.
The only way the Democrats might buck up would be -- not because they really know how to -- only because they feel they have to since it's too close to the election and if they don't fight, McCain will be able to point out that it's a Democratic Congress signing off on this pass the buck to the taxpayer measure. Even then, even if they do wage a little war, all the Democrats will manage to take away will be a few million dollars in feeble programs. Some food stamps or a couple of months of extended unemployment.
But protection against foreclosure? I wouldn't bet on it.
And forget about limiting what we're going to pay the team the Fed is going to hire from the industry, or putting a brake on Vikram Pandit's bonus and stock options. And forget about some kind of share in what profits the government might make from the paper they buy -- did you get a check after the rescue of the Savings and Loan industry brought in some change?
Also forget about even a reasonable penalty or extra tax on investment bank profits over the next couple of years, to ease the taxpayer burden.
And forget about regulation. The industry lobbyists are already warning that this isn't the time for regulation. And of course Republicans will shake hands on that, while Democrats will second guess themselves and wonder if maybe maybe regulation really does depress profits and these banks really really need to recover now, especially since so many retirement funds all over the contry are so heavily invested in these banks, and in their instruments....
So this is really not to say there aren't Democrats who feel that screwing you and me is wrong. Or not exactly. I think there are Democrats who are populist at heart, and that's why we tend to vote for them. But they fail us.
Then again, how many of us were writing to our Congressmen and Senators back in 04 and 05 telling them that the markets were unhealthy, being fed by a new dangerous bubble in the making, and they had to do something? How many of us bought houses to flip? How many took advantage of the phenomenal mortgage deals? How many took out second mortgages saying wee!?
Hindsight's a wonderful thing -- though, in truth, we should be able to expect better of guys like Dodd and Frank. It's their job, after all. Not yours and mine.
But we apparently can't.
It's unfortunate, because if a champion were to rise up out of the Democratic party now and forcefully speak against this giveaway to criminals, and fight for the voters, even if it was more grandstanding than anything else, and in the end it didn't work, it would bring the votes in in spades. Even if it weren't Obama (though it would be best if it were), it would resonate.
I think, however, it's more likely that McCain would pull a stunt like that. A total mockery. It would fit with the campaign he's been running.
For my part, I wish at least they'd call Elliot Spitzer in out of disgrace to run the auction. At least that would give the banks a little bit of their just deserts.
September 21, 2008 12:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Do you think it's too late for Dennis Kucinich to get back in the race?
Or Ron Paul, for that matter??
-- ARG
September 21, 2008 10:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
With the clammor to "do somethng fast" I'm thinking some sort of legislation is inevitible, and from the way they are talking it seems like the gist will be to hand it over to an appointee who will supposedly be independent but will serve at the President's pleasure. Wouldn't the best solution be to write congressional oversight directly into the law, requiring periodic appearances and reporting, with automatic or expedited removal of said appointee upron refusal to appear?
September 21, 2008 10:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
Pelosi is a tool, and the 'loyal opposition' is in the bankers' back pocket. Look back at the passing of the Gramm bill, and you'll see the same thing--the Dems tacked on some tiny cosmetic 'wins' for the little guy, y'know, kinda like giving beads to the Indians for Manhattan.
There should be marching in the streets, protests and strikes--these are the populist tools that are available to us in a democracy to use when we are not being represented by our govt. Strikes are especially feared and reviled by the Masters of the Universe, precisely because they are so effective. The hidden secret is that the economic power of the US is not Wall Street's bogus accounting and money printing; it is the power of people and production.
September 21, 2008 11:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
I have no faith that anyone in Congress will stand against this, with the November elections so close.
The provisions against oversight are more frightening even than the number of billions involved. The SEC could literally do *anything* they want to with the money, including start another war. I know that's a ridiculous example, but the draft as it currently stands would actually allow it, and the Judicial Branch is explicitly excluded from ruling against any such actions, no matter how outrageous.
I want some frakking leadership to stand up against this! Obama? Dodd? Bueller? Anyone?
September 21, 2008 11:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
If this whole bailout is financed by reinstating a progressive income tax, one that takes 90% of the income above $1 million per year, for example, the cost will be borne by those who benefitted from the mess in the first place. I would consider that a fair deal.
If part of the financing of the bailout it 100% taxation of all compensation of executives above 10 times the average pay of non executives in a corporation, that would also be a fair deal.
Then, of course, the bailout needs to reinstate regulation of the markets involved. That also would be a fair deal.
Less than that will not be a fair deal.
September 21, 2008 12:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
A couple of points: One is that we don't know the full range of the problems faced by the financial system, and therefore the true impact of them. We should not be held hostage to this by an administration ratcheting up the fear in order to create the climate to let them put in the solution they want to save us. They will put in controls to save their ability to conduct business as they see fit, not to protect us and the market from abusive practices. Let's have no rush to judgment, and no rush to implement an ill considered, overly costly, solution. How does the saying go, 'Act in haste, repent at leisure'? Our CEO president has a lifelong history of financial manipulation in business, followed by a bailout in which everyone around him suffers while he thrives. Don't let him finish his time in the White House by doing the same thing to us.
September 21, 2008 1:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Losing Faith in Markets; Losing Faith in Democracy
As I read Paulson's proposed bill to authorize his bailout of the financial industry, I am struck not so much by the loss of faith in free markets, but by the clear loss of faith in democracy. Paulson is calling for almost absolute executive power with no oversight by congress, courts, or administrative entities. This is the power of a king. Essentially, Paulsen is telling us not only that markets don't work but that, in a crisis like this, democracy doesn't work either. This is much like Bush's own claims in regard to the war on terror. We need to ask is the fear of economic collapse, like the fear of terrorist attack, causing Americans to give up their precious democracy for a fleeting sense of security?
September 21, 2008 1:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
The business plan I wrote to borrow $250,000 was 65 pages long.
September 21, 2008 1:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Shanghai Consolidated Index just opened up 8%. It's now up over 23% since its low last Thursday.
Thank you American taxpayers.
September 21, 2008 10:07 PM | Reply | Permalink