Democrats and the Bailout
I have made it clear that I think the notion of this Toxic Trust Company Of America is a flawed idea. However, many of my friends on Wall Street think its necessary and it is clear that the panic that has gripped the markets since Monday morning must be calmed. So if we are going to bail out all the bad actors of the last 8 years, we need to get something in return. All of the Wall Street types and neoconservative economists who have resisted regulation will have to surrender in return for the rescue of the capitalist system. Here are some thoughts.
The New RTC-Assuming the government commits $750 Billion to buy the bad loans from many financial institutions, the New RTC must extract warrants to purchase stock in each one of those institutions based on the face amount of the loans they are taking from the companies. Paulson is at heart a trader, and I'm sure he knows that the taxpayers need an upside for taking on all the risk. We did this with the Chrysler bailout in 1979, so there is a precedent.
Hedge Fund Transparency-Hedge funds will have to register with the SEC and be just as transparent as Mutual Funds. These pirates have escaped regulation for too long. They will need to disclose long and short positions in the same way mutual funds do.
Short Selling-We need to restore the uptick rule (you can only short on an uptick in a stock) and ban naked shorting.
Mark to Market-My friend Doug Newhouse sent me a essay by William Isaac, who ran the FDIC from 1980-1985. It explains why the new mark to market accounting rules helped cause this crisis. This clearly needs to be changed back to the way we did it in the 80's.
The biggest culprit is a change in our accounting rules that the Financial Accounting Standards Board and the SEC put into place over the past 15 years: Fair Value Accounting. Fair Value Accounting dictates that financial institutions holding financial instruments available for sale (such as mortgage-backed securities) must mark those assets to market. That sounds reasonable. But what do we do when the already thin market for those assets freezes up and only a handful of transactions occur at extremely depressed prices?
This is contrary to everything we know about bank regulation. When there are temporary impairments of asset values due to economic and marketplace events, regulators must give institutions an opportunity to survive the temporary impairment. Assets should not be marked to unrealistic fire-sale prices. Regulators must evaluate the assets on the basis of their true economic value (a discounted cash-flow analysis).
Democrats and the Obama campaign cannot be herded into doing a simple rescue action for the banks without extracting these basic regulatory changes. Now is the point of maximum leverage on the here to fore resistant parties on the right. Legislation written and passed in panic is bad legislation.

















Oh, but the Democrats can always say, "It's an emergency and right before the election and we've got to pass something. We'll come back and revisit it and deal with regulations, later."
September 19, 2008 2:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
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December 22, 2010 4:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
Oh come on, Nancy and Harry won't demand anything! They'll just go along with whatever.
September 19, 2008 2:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
We need a sternly worded letter from a couple of Democratic senators, addressed to the Secretary of the Treasury. This letter will take care of all of the problems, so the Democrats can re-assume the position they seem to enjoy assuming.
I'm with Jonathan on this: give Wall Street their rescue, but only with some stringent regulations attached, regulations that kill the golden goose the CEO's of financial institutions have been benefitting from for the past 7 years or so. And, the first regulation should be a limit to CEO pay, possibly by requiring that the CEO pay committees that corporations use contain not one single CEO on them, and a limit on the multiple of the average pay in that corporation that a CEO can receive in total compensation. I would also mandate that the word "investment" could only legally be used for investments that return an annual dividend or interest payment. All other investments would have to be labeled "speculations". And, just to sweeten the deal, I would require that no CEO could have his pay tied to stock price, but only to profit and loss of the corporation. Then, as an aperitif, I would disallow any stock options as part of a pay package.
September 19, 2008 3:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sure. But even more than all those I want to see the bail out used to protect the waves of sub prime home "owners" heading towards eviction when their mortgages reset. Now we're the ones holding those mortgages. Do you want to evict anyone? I don't.
September 19, 2008 4:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Frankly, I couldn't care less about CEO pay.
What upsets me is the idea of paying 200 cents on a dollar of assets in order to shore up domestic bank balance sheets and bailout investors who selected their managers and gambled that those managers knew what they were doing.
They all wanted higher returns than they could get by investing conservatively. It's now time for them to pay the piper.
I have yet to hear anyone -- Paulson, Bernanke, Dodd, that loud mouth Shumer, Frank, anyone -- explain what the "Oh my god, it's all collapsing" problem is. All I hear is "Trust us; we know what we're doing."
Except they haven't known what they were doing for over a year. Why should we believe anything they say now?
September 19, 2008 5:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Right on Ellen . . . both in this post and the one below from 6:12 pm.
September 19, 2008 6:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
If we're buying all this bad debt, let's just make sure there's lots of upside for us to compensate for the risk. Regulation is nice, but what I really want is substantial ROI. These guys were making billions demanding usurious interest rates from desperate people with bad credit and in tight financial situations. Let's give them a dose of their own medicine guys.
September 19, 2008 3:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
I posted the following article on my blog earlier today, but it seemed relevant here. I'm alarmed to see a handful of unelected officials rushing to commit the American taxpayer to a multi-billion-dollar bailout of the financial industry. Sure we need to stabilize the economy--but I'm very concerned about the potential long term costs to ordinary Americans and not convinced that the short term benefits outweigh these costs. Three questions need to be asked this weekend before we let Paulsen proceed:
1. What return will the American taxpayer receive for this massive and risky investment? Stabilizing the economy in the short term is important, but we need more than that. We must demand a long-term ROI commensurate with the risk we are taking. Wall Street needs to pay us back with significant interest. What mechanisms are we creating to ensure that they do this as they return to profitability?
2. Will this massive bailout of Wall Street really help the economy long term? My fear is that the national debt will explode, creating a long term drag on the economy that may be worse for us than the short-term meltdown we are trying to avoid today. How do we gauge the long-term effects of this action and ensure that they aren't even worse than the short-term problems we are trying to solve now?
3. What will this do to the federal government in the long term? If the national debt balloons will the government be so burdened by debt that it will be unable to provide essential services in the future? Will all this debt eventually force us to reduce other government programs, in particular Social Security, Medicare, education funding, and other domestic spending? (Some on the right wing may even hope to see the government crippled in this way, so we must be extremely wary.) What can we do to ensure that this bailout today doesn't destroy the government's ability to meet the needs of ordinary Americans in the future?
Here's the article from earlier:
Who Elected Henry Paulson?
Okay--Henry Paulson is a smart guy, I assume, and everything he's doing to bail out Wall Street may be absolutely necessary. Certainly, we know from the 1930s what happens when the financial markets crash precipitously. Everyone gets hurt--and ordinary people maybe the most. It's unseemly to see regular taxpayers having to bail out a bunch of greedy Wall Street millionaires who, when they were doing well, were not interested in sharing their wealth either with ordinary workers or with the government they are now turning to for help. But life isn't always fair, and while we might all like to let the Wall Streeters fall over the cliff they built, it really doesn't help us if they do so while our legs are shackled to theirs.
So maybe Paulson is doing the right thing. But I can't help but being disturbed by the fact that one unelected man (or a few, if we throw in Bernanke and some others) is pretty much unilateraly committing the US taxpayer to a huge and highly risky obligation that could cost us all billions or even trillions of dollars down the road. Doesn't the constitution give the power of the purse to congress? How is it that Paulson ended up with the purse in his hot little hands?
I guess we need to move fast (markets aren't known for patience), but let's please take just a few moments to be sure we know what we're buying before we let Henry Paulsen spend all our money. It seems to me that the American taxpayer is being asked to invest huge sums in failing investment companies when no private sector firm is willing to do the same. Maybe the gamble will pay off. But more likely, we're going to lose a lot of money. That means a much higher national debt. And that will have consequences. At some point it will be a drag on the economy. It may require higher taxes. And it may require huge reductions in federal spending, including huge reductions in spending on middle class benefits like Social Security and Medicare. The cost five or ten or twenty years down the road might be vast. And just to pour salt on our wounds, the underperforming assets we are purchasing (or will get stuck with if the loans we are making default) may very well be sold off at bargain basement prices to the same Wall Streeters who got us into the mess. If the government mismanges this (or manages it in the interest of certain of their big campaign contributors), the Wall Street crowd will get to buy back the assets they dumped on the taxpayer for next to nothing and then benefit from any future appreciation. This whole bailout, if managed stupidly or duplicitously by the government, could simply be a way for the Wall Street tycoons to transfer their losses to the regular-guy taxpayers while benefiting handsomely from a big run-up before the bailout and a future big run-up afterwards. And don't forget that the massive debt the taxpayer will be holding will force reductions in federal spending in the future--something that many Republicans and their corporate allies will see as a positive result.
So as Henry Paulsen opens our checkbook, let's be sure he really has our (the ordinary guy's) interest at heart and not the interest of his old friends on Wall Street and in boardrooms and in the Republican party. I'm not sure Paulson is doing the wrong thing but as always, caveat emptor, taxpayer.
September 19, 2008 5:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sure we need to stabilize the economy . . . .
It seems pretty stable to me. Is there any evidence it isn't?
September 19, 2008 5:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ellen if you're asking if the economic problem is really as bad for the rest of us as it is for investment bankers, you're asking a very good question.
In my industry, I haven't seen any more than a modest slowdown and there's no real reason why Lehman brothers going bankrupt will have any effect at all on our ability to make and sell our particular widgets.
September 19, 2008 5:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's what I was asking.
This thing is a panic among the debt and derivative investors who are using the media to panic the rest of us into bailing them out. The American people aren't being told what's going on or what the real rather than the imaginary risks are. The Democratic Congress and the media are pulling a "bullrush" on the rest of us.
Consumer credit is being cut back? It should be.
Buyout firms can't get credit? They shouldn't have it.
Franchisees can't buy an Applebees? People aren't going to Applebees.
Homeowners can't sell their homes at inflated prices? Lower the price.
Can't pay the mortgage. Then, it isn't and never was your house. Walk away!
American industry's balance sheet is loaded with cash (except for what it spent buying back stock to inflate share prices). It doesn't need loans.
This "crisis" is bulls--t!
September 19, 2008 6:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Notice that the resistance to accepting any kind of medicine with their sugar was immediate: we are not to go "playing politics" in this time of crisis by asking for any remedial legislation along with the needed bailouts. This would prevent the GOP from filibustering any reform after the fact and cannot be countenanced.
September 20, 2008 8:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
I agree, these and other laws have to be included in the package creating the "Toxic Trust Company". By January 2009 a new Congress and a new Administration will have forgotten about the meltdown and Wall Street will get itself off the hook. Money talks and there is still enough money kicking around Wall Street to keep up its anti-regulation lobbying.
September 20, 2008 10:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
The truth is that these toxic debts that the taxpayers are made to buy are completely worthless - they're not even mortgages in default. Those are worth at least something, i.e. a home. These are SIVs, CDOs, a host of phantom "investment vehicles" that are built on that single mortgage. That mortgage is spliced and sold several times over through these new-fangled financial instruments which should have been illegal under a responsible SEC. They're sold as solid AAA-rated investments to unwary buyers- banks, pension funds and the municipal governments from Norway, Australia to Japan. These are in fact worthless as they were conjured out of thin air, and the Dollar is going to become just as worthless by the time newly minted $1 trillion get spun out of thin air and hit the economy. Talk about the Weimar experience....
Bookmark this link to a graph over the past 100 years of Fed borrowing - it shows what "Helicopter Ben" really means and the sky's the limit here:
http://alfred.stlouisfed.org/graph?s_1=1&s[1][id]=BORROW&s[1][vintage_date]=2008-08-14&s[1][line_color]=%23FF0000&s_2=1&s[2][id]=BORROW&s[2][vintage_date]=2008-07-03&s[2][line_color]=%230000FF&chart_type=line&s[1][range]=Max&s[2][range]=Max
The resultant inflation will be staggering, but of course they will cook the CPI figures for the Nation of Whiners.
Why didn't the US government (both Dems and Reps) step in and prevent this from going nuclear? It's because they are in this together with the bankers. It's a way for them to get money withot going directly to the taxpayer.
Here is an inside expose by an ex Bush Sr. official, it's simply mind-boggling what's been happening:
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL0808/S00344.htm
If a mom-and-pop business fails, it's gone without a blip, foreclosed by the bank. When a bunch of crooks with golden parachutes of a few ten millions break the bank and collapse to nothing investments worth billions of dollars, they're bailed out by taxpayers. Hello moral hazard???
These greedy crooks and their govt cronies are the worst of the robber barons with true contempt for the "average" people too stupid to comprehend how they are being robbed.
They never teach these sleight-of-hand tricks in your Economics 101 classes either. Do most Americans know or care that the Fed is a private banking entity entrusted with the issuance of their money? Not if they've got American Idol and James Dobson.
Welcome to the Brave New World Order.
September 20, 2008 12:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
I couldn't agree more with your post! The florida mortgage rates are insanely expensive right now so i may need to look into getting a cash out refinance but that will cause me to lose a big percentage of my money invested.
February 18, 2011 5:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
I couldn't agree more with your post! The florida mortgage rates are insanely expensive right now so i may need to look into getting a cash out refinance but that will cause me to lose a big percentage of my money invested.
February 18, 2011 5:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
Why can't the New RTC (I prefer TTC) just negotiate on the price? Nobody said we have to pay par value for these loans. And nobody has a gun to the head of the financial institutions who currently own them.
So, suppose We the People (The TTC) offer, say, 50 cents on the dollar for this paper? Holders of the paper can either mark it to market at that price, and keep it. Or they can sell it to the TTC and get it off their books.
The TTC then holds the paper to maturity, and might just make a profit.
I don't want to own a hundred banks or other financial institutions.
-- ARG
September 20, 2008 12:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
One other rule I'd like to see:
The originator of a mortgage must hold and service the mortgage for at least two years. (Or maybe five years.)
Let's get back to having actual banks holding mortgages. Banks used to make money by lending funds for at one rate, and paying lower interest to depositors. What was wrong with that model?
-- ARG
September 20, 2008 12:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am most concerned with the provision inserted into this bill that gives the Secretary of the Treasury unlimited powers to unilaterally make decisions that would not be subject to review by congress of the courts. This is a financial Patriot Act, and must not stand as proposed. The provision reads as follows:
September 20, 2008 6:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Decisions by the Secretary pursuant to the authority of this Act are non-reviewable and committed to agency discretion, and may not be reviewed by any court of law or any administrative agency.
September 20, 2008 6:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
There is some concern to the "wording" of the bail-out contract..some who have read it says it seems to deliver one hell of a huge amount of "further power consolidation" into the hands of the Executive Branch..more than ever before permitted, even much more than current "war-time powers", allowing the "Secretary-Treasuer" what amounts to dictorial powers and a complete, and total disregard of any over-sight by Congress.... any oversight of any kind, except for the President himself..if this is true...then its not really about "saving the economy" is it....?
September 20, 2008 7:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
A major villain in this mess has been getting a pass from the MSM.
Bond rating companies are a major contributer to the meltdown.
They basically decided that they had no clue as to how to accurately asses the risk of the bonds make up of bundled sub-prime mortgages. So they threw up their hands and decided that they would just let the market determine the risk.
This introduced a positive feedback mechanism that has allowed a small amount of shorting to drive down the bond ratings, which drives the price down, which leads to more shorting and so on.
September 21, 2008 12:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
A couple thoughts. Let's don't make the executive compensation too complex -- which would be subject to gaming. Let's adopt (George) Will's law: these executives are limited to the top pay for government employees -- GS15. If they want government money, they need to be treated like government employees.
Second, everyone says that no-one knows the underlying value of these mortgage based securities. In part because they have been sliced and diced and in part because many of them are in default.
While the underlying mortgages were written for long periods, statistically, people move every three years. That means while the mortgage is for a long term, few people actually make payments for the full period. In fact the mortgage companies bank on that which is why all of the interest is front loaded.
This means that there must be some mechanism to tie an individual mortgage to a fund or funds.
Thus, it seems that the simple solution is to refinance the underlying mortgages. Replace these fraudulent adjustable rate mortgages with standard 30 year fixed rate mortgages.
The amount refinanced would be equal to the fair market value of the property. This number is real easy to determine. Every county assessor in the U.S. uses mass appraisals based on actual current sales values to determine the property taxes on each parcel of property. That is, every sale is reported to the assessor. A value is derived according to a fairly complex formula. This value is going to be more accurate than most appraisals, which is subject to fraud.
The trustee who actually holds the mortgage paper actually gets a better deal. Figure that if the property goes into foreclure, he will spend $10,000 in attorneys fees and another $10,000 fixing up the property before selling it at firesale prices. No one ever walks out of a foreclosure getting the fair market value.
The homeowners get a fresh start in that their delinquency is wiped out. The old goofy mortgage is replaced by a standard mortgage amortized over a longer period based on the current fair market value of the property.
This effectively liquidates the mortgages, and the extent of the loss can then be determined with a fair degree of accuracy.
I think the big money boys understand that the solution is actually fairly simple. But this is not a liquidity crisis, but a solvency crisis. Once the losses are tallied, most of the outfits which bought these secuties on margin are going to be bankrupt. That's what they are afraid of.
September 21, 2008 8:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
I can’t say this enough…we need millions of citizens to email or call their senators and congress reps and tell them NO BLANK CHECK.
This is so serious that we need to take a break from the campaign and address this problem. The democrats have got to find their voice and stand up to the power brokers. Let us show them we are with them. Overwhelm the telephones load the emails don’t stop until they know that we are watching and we will not let this slide.
Maybe we need to form a human chain and circle the Capitol
and let them know the people have had enough. NO BLANK CHECK, NO ABSOLUTE POWER TO THE PRES, NO MORE TRASHING OF THE CONSTITUTION.
September 21, 2008 10:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
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RTC must extract warrants to purchase stock in each one of those institutions based on the face amount of the loans they are taking from the companies.
Short term loans
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