How Terrorism Ends....
The RAND Corporation dug into its own funds to produce an unusual report. It seeks to determine how terrorists groups end. It found that in the best cases, they turn into political parties (like the Resistencia Nacional Mozambicana in Mozambique did). When force must be used to end terrorism, a combination of policing and use of intelligence is much more effective than committing conventional armies. The RAND report provides more ammunition to those who reject the metaphor of a "war" against terrorism and all that it evokes. At the same time the report points out that Al Qaeda is especially unlikely to agree to a political settlement, given its ambitions, goals, and religious fundamentalism. To learn more, go here.
Because the report draws mainly on data about groups that functioned in countries in which they had no realistic chance of gaining control of nuclear weapons, such as Columbia and El Salvador, the report does not deal with what practically all experts consider by far the greatest threat to security, what is referred to as massive or catastrophic terrorism-- by those who employ nuclear weapons.
This grave threat is directly tied to the question of what is the best way to curb terrorism. Some hold that terrorists should be treated like other criminals. However, the criminal system focuses on prosecution. That is, bringing offenders to trial and deterring future crime by punishing those that have already committed crimes. In contrast, to counter terrorism, prevention is much more important. We seek to ensure that such attacks will not occur, rather than go after the perpetrators after the fact. Moreover, given that many of them commit suicide during their attacks, they fear not the prosecution that might follow, as they will be unavailable to face trial.
Last but not least, in the criminal justice system those charged with a crime have a right to face those who bear witness against them, and the state must disclose to the defense all the relevant information it has. This would mean, for instance, that if the US found a collaborator or planted an agent among bin Laden's close associates--he or she would have to be appear in court! And if the US succeeded in planting a microphone in Iran's command and control center, this source would have to be disclosed.
Our mind is big enough to accommodate more than two options. The image of a war against terrorism is clearly a wrong one, if only because the other side will not abide by the few rules that wars have, especially wearing a uniform or some other insignia so one can tell fighters from civilians. (One should though note that Bob Woodward's new book, The War Within, shows that what is working in Iraq is a combination of better methods of collecting intelligence and better use of special and conventional forces--that is better use of the military.) Policing is the wrong model for reasons just indicated. The RAND report uses the term counterterrorism to imply a third approach. As I see it, a third approach would grant terrorists basic human rights (e.g. they cannot be tortured, and they cannot be held indefinitely without being charged) but not the full list of rights a citizen of the United States (or whatever nation is involved) commands. Thus, terrorists should be required to choose a lawyer from among those that have security clearances. They will not be able to see sources and methods, and can be held for longer than 48 hours--say 21 days--before they have to be charged, to allow time to roll up their cells, trace their phone calls, and decipher their computer files.
Finally, we need another RAND report on the best ways to win over the sympathizers of the terrorists, on which they draw for funding, supplies, and intelligence. In that sense, the fight against Al Qaeda is an ideological confrontation. The best way to proceed is to ally ourselves with the majority of Muslims who abhor violence, who make reliable Partners in Peace, against the violent minority. [for more on this point, go here]
All in all, thanks is due to RAND (and especially to Seth G. Jones and Martin C. Libicki, the authors of the report) for a work that lifts the deliberations about how to end terrorism to a new level. It is at this level that we must find new ways to fight terrorism.
Amitai Etzioni is Professor of International Relations at The George Washington University and author of Security First (Yale 2007). www.securityfirstbook.com email: comnet@gwu.edu














But to build that alliance means that we will have to end unilateral and unquestioning support for Israel in her wars against the Muslims. And that is something we cannot do. Therefore, war remains our only option.
September 16, 2008 6:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why shouldn't an accused terrorist have the right to face his or her accuser and to mount a spirited defense, which would include being able to know how evidence was gathered and why charges were brought?
What's Etzioni's answer to the very really problem of people being falsely accused of terrorism? What's Etzioni's answer to the very real need for a transparent process that the people can oversee so that they don't find their government using anti-terrorism laws against run of the mill dissidents?
September 16, 2008 7:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
right.
if we decide that rights of the accused are different for different criminal accusations we admit that they can be arbitrarily chucked for ANY criminal accusations. that is unacceptable. that is UNAMERICAN.
September 19, 2008 12:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
No surprises in the RAND report or this post.
I take issue with the nuclear-weapons worry, that a terrorist group (Al Qaeda) might have a realistic chance of acquiring a nuke from, presumably, Pakistan. No state will ever give away its crownng technological achievment. It's equivalent to handing over the space program to jailhouse snitches.
So let's look again at the criminality concept. It is not only prosecution and deterrence; it is also doing the exact opposite of offering Al Qaeda the stature of existential threat. The worry about compromising sources or methods is non-trivial but is not disabling. The British would have been able to both wrap up a scary plot, the liquid-explosive guys, and prosecute them effectively. This group was thoroughly wired and under their thumb, but after America panicked and wanted the Pakistan connection grabbed, it hurt that prosecution.
Given that it is inherently impossible to anticipate all terrorist actions, sometimes they will get lucky. So it is possible (likely) to waste efforts in trying to know all and control all. But it is also possible to reduce the threat, or at least not exacerbate it, through less clumsy foreign policy and actions.
Specifically, again with the police model, emforcement is difficult or impossible without the community's backing. Immediately after 9/11, one group knew exactly where Bin Laden was, the Taleban. They could have rendered him to us if we had convinced them to give up their custom of sheltering guests. They offered this option, and we brushed it aside.
It's understandable that Bush took the politically easy way of going with the thirst for revenge, but that ensured a hard job in catching Osama. And we failed. That meant he gained huge stature, and instead of being held on public display in criminal garb, facing a judge, he is legend.
September 16, 2008 9:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh Jeez, Tom... haven't you ever seen a GI Joe cartoon? COBRA will stop at nothing to get a nuclear weapon! Or, failing that, COBRA will stop at nothing less than to gather the DNA of the world's greatest military leaders so that they can clone a marshall genius that they shall name Serpentor!
At best all of these "terrorists will gets nukes" scenarios are stolen from Le Carre or Fleming. But most of them are taken from 80s cartoons.
September 16, 2008 9:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
In Tom Clancy's "The Sum of All Fears" a renegade Iraqi scientist helps some terrorists build a plutonium weapon (unlike the movie, which uses a stolen one). The bad guys kill the scientist just before he installs the final item, not knowing the device is not complete. Result is a fizzle, although nasty.
There are people trying to buy weapons-grade uranium, and people trying to sell it, and people trying to intercept it. So far, only a few ounces has made it out of one country, Russia, and that was intercepted in our friends' territory, South Ossetia.
While the scariest scenario, it is also the least likely, to see a nuke in non-state actors' hands. While it is easy to make a gun-type uranium bomb like we used on Hiroshima, so easy we did not test the design, it takes a crapload of U235, like 100 lbs, which is the main reason we did not test---we lacked enough material for more than one. And it is so big it would need delivery by large truck or ship, unless the bad guys can hire a large bomber.
September 17, 2008 8:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
Nah!
While some of them are building the bomb, the rest of them can build the bomber.
September 17, 2008 9:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for the extra info Tom. Etzioni is always pushing the nuke argument and he often does it in support of more "communitarian" laws that ultimately infringe on individual rights and liberties. The terrorists with nukes story is just a scare tactic. Always has been.
September 17, 2008 9:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
It is not merely scary; lots of serious folk are trying really hard to counter it. But the best place to affect the risk is at the source--where uranium and plutonium is already stockpiled, thus Nunn-Lugar, and other ventures intended to control material.
Hunting terrorists is like hunting any criminal before the act, a lot of guesswork and some entrapment/stings.
September 17, 2008 9:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
destor23,
Reread Tom Wright. It is unlikely that terrorists will get enough U235 to make a gun bomb and it is really tricky to make an implosion bomb and P is not easy to get either. But we should make it as hard as is feasible to obtain fissile materials.
We also need better security on existing nuclear weapons. The US is supposed to be really good at this, but the USAF flew a couple of semi-live warheads from SD to LA by accident a few months ago. Russia does not pay its military very well, so if there are rumors of bioscientists from the weapons programs emigrating to better paying jobs, we want to make sure no underpaid colonel-general can sell a working device. Finally, Pakistan understandably turned down our offer to supply guards for their nuclear arsenal, but their government is fragile.
September 17, 2008 12:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tom - "...he (Osama) gained huge stature and instead of being held on public display in criminal garb, facing a judge, he's legend." (you got it)
And guess who made him a legend, our hyper-active dolt of a president and his how-we-learned-to-love-the-bombs advisers. The terrorist's three-r's - revenge, reaction, renown - have been played out to the letter, and the ball's always been in their court.
It may be difficult to deter 'revenge' but a sub rosa 'reaction' would do a helluvalot to undermine the 'renown,' which would definitely put a damper on future recruitment.
September 18, 2008 12:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's easy to mock but really they don't have to: they already have Abdul Qadeer Khan.
The real problem is that most of the measures used to combat 'terrorists' increase the recruiting pool for them. The more civilians you kill hunting them the more support they have in the countryside.
That is why Obama's notion that if we just clean out the tribal areas in Paksistan we will be fine is so nonsensical. In reality if we do that, the terrorist will have recruits from ALL of Pakistan.
Christopher Hitchen's reads Obama's intentions the same way I do but he's all for the confrontation.
September 17, 2008 12:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
ajm,
I doubt that Obama wants to brutally clean out the tribal areas. I think he has said that if the Pakistani's can't or won't root out foreign terrorists, the US might strike at bin Ladin and the AQ leadership with firm intelligence and without asking permission. I am making a projection here, but the bloodiest-minded CIA guy ("flies on their eyeballs") wrote that we also have to make the tribal areas a land of opportunity and education to drain the swamp and it's more than possible that Obama would agree.
September 17, 2008 1:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey this great and all, but how the hell is this going to sell more weapons? That is what it's really all about at this point. Won't it be interesting when Pakistan turns those F-16's we sold them against us? The US is also considering selling F-16's to Iraq. Apparently the lessons about selling advanced weapons to unstable nations hasn't sunk in yet. We are screwed.
September 17, 2008 2:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
The military industrial complex is the biggest winner in all of this. Maybe the oil companies have record profits, but the arms dealers are having a field day. The oil money is spread out over thousands of people. The arms dealers? not so much, but terrific ROI.
September 18, 2008 1:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
right.
if we decide that rights of the accused are different for different criminal accusations we admit that they can be arbitrarily chucked for ANY criminal accusations. that is unacceptable. that is UNAMERICAN.
September 19, 2008 12:40 AM | Reply | Permalink