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Situation: Not Good

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Approximately 11 percent of the civilian work force (including marginally attached workers) is unemployed. About 9% of all mortgage holders are late on their payments. These are probably overlapping sets of individuals; presumably many who lose their jobs or can't find work then can't keep up their house payments.

If these unemployed have to sell their houses, they are selling into a down market where they will obtain little equity from the sale, in all likelihood, or they may find that they cannot obtain a high enough price to pay the mortgage they can't keep up payments on.

The Congress seeks a stimulus package. What is its purpose? What is its ideal shape?


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The ideal stimulus would involve battery clamps, an electric source, and Bush administration officials.

Failing that, something targeted at homeowners who are having problems with their sole residence. Good lenders should expect a buzz cut, bad lenders should expect to be scalped. I'd propose forced adjustment of terms to the prime rate with some sort of stick to discourage borrower from just walking away. There will still be a lot of foreclosures, 30+ % drop in home values and a deepening recession are very bad juju. Roubini called the current conditions 3 years ago, and he is not optimistic.

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The Congress seeks a stimulus package.

I hadn't heard anything about this. I know Obama has some sort of pandering notion of sending out some additional tax rebates come June 2009. But the Congress?

Is it true? Has anybody got a link?

The ideal stimulus would involve battery clamps, an electric source, and Bush administration officials.
Partisan BS is not helpful. Lots of people can share the blame and Bush is probably the least culpable of the lot.

We just added $100 billion to the deficit with the last check flurry, and are getting ready to spend billions more, (if not trillions) bailing out the GSEs.

Sadly, leaving individuals to hang will not collapse the economy, unlike letting the GSEs fail. Somebody is going to have to find out what ruining your credit does to future finances. In the end, capping ARM's to just above fixed rates may be the only salve available.

Bush is probably the least culpable of the lot.

Lets drop the 'partisan BS' after eight years of Republican spin, politics over country, lies, war and incompetence. Bush was for the worst administration in memory. Perhaps Americans are at fault for putting him and his Republican hucksters in office. No country can expect to prosper under such leadership.

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shooter says;

Partisan BS is not helpful. Lots of people can share the blame and Bush is probably the least culpable of the lot.

Shooter, who are these "lots of people"?

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Well, we could start with President Clinton, who in order to guarantee that Wall Street would back his wife's 2000 Senate campaign approved GLBA which repealed Glass-Steagall.

Note: I have no idea why the big phony signed the CFMA in December 2000 -- maybe he'd made a pre-November election promise on that one, too.

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Ellen,

and Phil Gramm and his wife, Wendy.

Then again we can go as far back as Reagan.

Reagan came into office with his deregulation mantra and we quickly had the HUD scandal, the Savings and Loan, the Leveraged buyout scam that was no more than a 'stolen car chop shop' writ large, tens of thousands lost their jobs as companies were sold off piecemeal.

Reagan told the sharks; 'Go forth and multiply', and they did. Some are running Fannie Mae and/or Freddie Mac and earning $20 million? per year.

$25/50 Billion to bail out Fannie and Freddie? Peanuts compared to the S&L.

George Bush Sr., New World Order, Phil Gramm, Ivan Boesky, Micahel Milkin, the ENRON gang, Global Crossing, World Com, Adelphia, Tyco, Bush/Cheney, Halliburton/KBR, Blackwater, EXXON's Lee Raymond retirement package $400 million.........

And oh yeah, Clinton's BJ.

The sharks are in the water, thanks Ron.

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Maybe some kind of public program, with the government employing people to work on public infrastructure projects?
That would have the added benefit of preventing highway, rail, and other public infrastructure from falling apart, as the ASCE suggests we're in danger of.(see I-85, MN)
Then, it's not a handout!

You'd think someone would have tried something like that in the past.

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Assuming you're not being facetious, Kenga, someone did. FDR has been criticized royally, by royalists mostly, for instituting various work programs. I was around then and his 'solutions' may have been economically unsound, but the people they kept alive were very grateful for them.

It has been argued that WWII actually brought us out of the Depression. If so, what the War did was pour tons of federal money into the economy. Maybe a war is the only acceptable justification for injecting huge fed funds into the economy, or maybe there is another acceptable justification. I leave that argument to some expert - who hopefully has a social conscience.

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phelicity,

the CCC camps and the WPA brought people back to work, they were then able to purchase the necessities; food, housing, coal, shoes, which were made scarce during the depression. An added benefit was the improvement in people's health.
Many illiterate people also learned to read and write in the CCC camps.

Anyhow, I think these programs were a very big asset in getting us out of the depression.

We were lucky, my father, a WW 1 vet, was working for the Penna RR, so we got by, barely, but most of my friends were destitute. My parents used to feed a few of the local kids when we had enough.

Its when I reflect that I see it was when FDR came along that things started to slowly get better.

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The idea that WWII got us out of the depression has become conventional wisdom, but that doesn't make it true.

The Republicans repeat this line because (A) they've spent the last 60+ years trying to un-do every progressive policy FDR instituted, and (B) they've become the War Party.

Progressives should not tell the story this way. The policy choices FDR made, primarily, pulled us out of the great depression. Progressive economic policies work, and that is the true lesson of the post depression recovery.

So kenga is right on the mark. And I believe, unfortunately, that things will get much worse before they get better, and we very well may have to return to ideas like the WPA and the CCC to pull ourselves out.

Shooter's statement (above) that "leaving individuals to hang will not collapse the economy" is not quite correct (unless one wants to quibble over the exact definition of "collapse"). We're facing a HUGE number of individual financial emergencies. Eventually all consumers will stop consuming, and that will put the overall economy in a very bad funk for a long, long time.

-- ARG

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You might want to spend a bit of time explaining how the Recession of 1937 fits into your scheme of things.

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Ellen says,

You might want to spend a bit of time explaining how the Recession of 1937 fits into your scheme of things.

Ellen, FDR was elected in 1933, isn't going from a 1933 Depression to a 1937 Recession a step forward?

note: I'm neither an Economist nor an Historian.

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Ellen, thanks for the link you posted. My interpretation of the '37 recession is that it was merely a blip in the recovery. Just look at the employment graph (in the link you posted).

That '37 recession certainly doesn't support the notion that we need a war to get out of a serious economic downturn.

I'm not questioning that WWII had an effect in terms of the US's economic condition. It did. I'm just saying that the idea that "we need a war" to get out of every recession (or the next depression) is not really supported by the facts.

And, worse than that, it's dangerous for this idea to be generally accepted by the casually informed masses, as it appears to be.

I think one could make a pretty good case that the latest wars have helped PUT us in the economic box we're currently in -- they are not the only cause, but they have made matters much worse.

So if one were to propose that "we need a good war" to get us out of the depression we're headed into in the next few years, I would disagree strongly. I think that would be exactly the wrong thing.

We need a war-level domestic effort and committment. But we do not need another war.

-- ARG

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ARG,

What you say. Ellen can be reasoned with even if she is some kind of contrarian nutcase -- maybe libertarian.

Thanks for the help with airgun177 at Lawyers, Troopergate, and Questions, but decapitating seven sled dogs was also fun. airgun177 has one of those thought-repellent baseball caps so facts often bounce off.

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ARG,

I think Dean sponsored (?) a study that showed excessive military spending increased inflation and decreased GNP long term for the obvious reasons.

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Ellen,

I'm restraining myself from an ancient SNL line, but did you look at the graph you cited? Jane, you .... nooo, abend, abend! Look at the employment figures, Jane you .... Roosevelt, incresed employment from 33-37. In 1938, an eyeball LSF on prior date indicates about a 3 million or 8% employment deficit. BUT the data does not include population growth so unemployment and consequent misery would be worse. I'm not paid enough to be precise, but a professional would compensate for population.

Jane, ..., are you saying the 37-38 blip cancels how many years?

Re: The Republicans repeat this line because (A) they've spent the last 60+ years trying to un-do every progressive policy FDR instituted, and (B) they've become the War Party.

Awkwardly for the GOP, WWII involves government spending and government control of the economy of a scale generally not seen outside true Socialist economies. The WWII argument is absolutely not an argument for laissez faire. (However there is a grain of truths in it: by taking two million men out of the civilian labor force WWII solved the unemployment crisis of the 30s.)

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I don't know where your figure of 2 million men taken "out of the civilian labor force" during WWII comes from.

I'd say the figure is closer to 15 million than it is to 2 million.

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Ellen,

you're right 15 to 16 million.

I think he could have said; by taking 2 million people out of the civilian work force who were unemployed and put them to work in the CCC camps and the WPA he solved the unemployment problem of the 30s?

The WPA and the CCC did not solve the unemployment crisis of the 30s. They functioned on far too small a scale. They did a lot of good-- I am not debating that-- they gave a lot of hopeless people hope, and put money in their pockets, and some of their projects were worthwhile in and of themselves. But they had almost no effect on the larger economy and job growth was stuck on flat.
The WWII draft changed that: it actually created a labor shortage at the same time war orders created an upsurge in demand.

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Also awkward for the GOP, but in an excruciating way, is the tax rates. From what I've seen, the top marginal rate topped out at 90+% around the end of the war.

I would push this issue farther out. Don't constrain yourself to a historic interpretation where you must defend FDR's record as if it represented the finest and best of socialist and progressive thought. It is and was far from that. Given the full spectrum of available remedies, it is clear that even if what FDR did had limited success (and I would say that it had limited success in a literal sense - that it helped a great deal but didn't solve the problem) it is probably true that a different set of interventionist, progressive policies would have been completely effective, doing much better than the war.

Given the cornucopia of academic talent that exists today, coupled with a much better understanding of economic issues and advances in computing, socialist and progressive type solutions can be very effective. Those that endorse free market solutions in this era are usually only heard because of the vast stores of wealth behind their voices, not because of the merit of their ideas.

Sadly, politicians on the left generally do not make very good interventionist policies, and FDRs actions are an illustration of this as well. It is silly to reject mixed markets as a result of such "botched tests" but of course some people try to make the new deal seem better than it was, and at the same time argue against its effectiveness. In this case, gracing such individuals even with a response is giving them more than they deserve, as it is clear they lack any sort of proper education, let alone the ethical clarity from which truth springs.

Kenga,

The analysis from the Levy Institute showed that an increase in spending, as opposed to tax cuts or rebates, had a slightly better affect. Alas, this simply softens the landing. The sad truth is that there is no magic way out of these messes and the sadder truth is that some folks think that everyone that is negatively affected is somehow to blame for their fate.

However, your point is on the mark in a fundamental way.

The tip of the economic iceberg keeps getting bigger. Record foreclosures, unemployment and bankruptcies all paint a very grim picture. Now we hear the Feds will step in prop up Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac at the potential cost to taxpayers of hundreds of billions of dollars - added to the $490 billion budget defict this year and trillions in long term debt the GOP has already run up. I love my country and my children, and it pains me to think of the future possibilities our political leadership has thrown away.
I think there are two big lessons here: Active government oversight is necessary to enforce basic ethics in big business and financal markets, and the nation needs an economic plan that focuses on job creation instead of investor returns. The GOP unfortunately has proven it can do neither.

Active government oversight is necessary to enforce basic ethics in big business and financal markets, and the nation needs an economic plan that focuses on job creation instead of investor returns. The GOP unfortunately has proven it can do neither.

And Democrats will likely do no better. History is often the result of disparate threads coming together in ways impossible to predict. In this case we have the result of investors seeking safety after the .com bubble, lowered interest rates to stave off recession, exacerbated by 9/11, the repeal of Glass/Steagal, and elimination of tax deductions save the mortgage exemption.

Government is complicit in most of this, demonstrably rendering them the last place to seek relief. My recommendation to you is to save cash. As in the Great Depression, a dollar will buy much more than it does now.

Also, government can't create jobs in the scale needed, the best it can do is create an environment where job creation is encouraged. Unfortunately competing with labor in the third world will take years to balance out.

Re: As in the Great Depression, a dollar will buy much more than it does now.

That was then, this is now. And while energy prices may be sliding down, not much else is and inflation remains high. Saving cash right now is not a good idea: a year from, now your dollar may be worth eighty cents.
This isn't back to the 30s, it's more like back to the (late) 70s with both a stagnant economy and nasty, energy-led inflation.

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I can't believe I'm agreeing with ; however --

If a $500,000 house sells for $400,000, a $28,000 car for $25,000, or a $28 share of GE for $18 while gasoline is up to $4/gal. and steak to $11/lb., do we have inflation or deflation?

Houses have gone down in value-- but only after climbing into lower geosynchonic orbit. Housing prices are still well about their historic norm, when compared to median income, and it's not obvious that they will return to that norm, let alone fall below it.
Energy prices have eased off, but gasoline remains higher than it was a year ago (let alone five years ago). Other commodities have come down too, but are still not back to their historic averages.
As yet there is no evidence that food costs, or healthcare costs, or much of anything else is declining in price, with the exception of some new technology items where falling prices are usually the rule.
The government's response to the current economy has been to dump money into it. Hence the low dollar-- and this usually fuels inflation, not deflation.
Some liberals have a fixation on the Great Depression and sometimes seem to yearn for a repeat-- perhaps because the Depression did produce a good political environment for progressive change. However that was a long time ago now, an the world has changed too much for history to repeat: we are no more likely to have another Great Depression than we are to see a repeat of the American Civil War-- or the English Civil War, or the barbarian invasions that sunk Rome.
I'd put my bets on inflation/stagflation being the curse of the next few years, especially if that political horror ticket singing "Let's do the Bush years again!" is elected. (Though I don't see Obama as an economic miracle workers either.)

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JonF said:

And while energy prices may be sliding down....

Gee, you're right.

I wonder how it is that the price of a barrel of oil has dropped so much recently and with no new drilling?

Shooter, please just shoot yourself in the foot.

Active government oversight is necessary to enforce basic ethics in big business and financal markets, and the nation needs an economic plan that focuses on job creation instead of investor returns. The GOP unfortunately has proven it can do neither.

And Democrats will likely do no better. History is often the result of disparate threads coming together in ways impossible to predict. In this case we have the result of investors seeking safety after the .com bubble, lowered interest rates to stave off recession, exacerbated by 9/11, the repeal of Glass/Steagal, and elimination of tax deductions save the mortgage exemption.

Government is complicit in most of this, demonstrably rendering them the last place to seek relief. My recommendation to you is to save cash. As in the Great Depression, a dollar will buy much more than it does now.

Also, government can't create jobs in the scale needed, the best it can do is create an environment where job creation is encouraged. Unfortunately competing with labor in the third world will take years to balance out.

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Hmmm, the ideal stimulus... it needs to come from the banks, not the government. We need to regulate credit so that people can safely delever without a lot of pain. Bank lenders have made a ton of money, they can afford to have the terms of their home and consumer loans rewritten by the government. They'll make out better than they will if people go under. That's why Hillary's moratorium on foreclosures made a lot of sense. If the foreclosures are hurting people and the economy (and they are) then the government should simply put a stop to them.

11%? Newest figures show 6.1% unemployment (of those looking for work). Of these over 5.5% have been unemployed for the last year so we can assume they have already lost their home or they don't own one anyway. This shows us an increase of .6% in unemployment. There are just over 300,000,000 Americans. 50% of our nation is under the age of 18 and not breadwinners who support a home. 60% of American Families do own their own home. 80% of the homeowners are married to a spouse who works, this means an increase of 27,000 homes on the market in which there is no-one person to make a house payment. If one where to assume that 30% of Americans have their home paid for the number shrinks to 18,900 homes that may face foreclosure. According to the last census there are 18,443 towns in the USA. So we basically have an increase of 1 more house on the market per town. Not much of an impact.

11%? Newest figures show 6.1% unemployment (of those looking for work). Of these over 5.5% have been unemployed for the last year so we can assume they have already lost their home or they don't own one anyway. This shows us an increase of .6% in unemployment. There are just over 300,000,000 Americans. 50% of our nation is under the age of 18 and not breadwinners who support a home. 60% of American Families do own their own home. 80% of the homeowners are married to a spouse who works, this means an increase of 27,000 homes on the market in which there is no-one person to make a house payment. If one where to assume that 30% of Americans have their home paid for the number shrinks to 18,900 homes that may face foreclosure. According to the last census there are 18,443 towns in the USA. So we basically have an increase of 1 more house on the market per town. Not much of an impact.

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So -- why do Bush and Paulson think it's necessary to bail out Fannie and Freddie?

Side note: 26% (not 50%) of Americans are under 18 years of age.

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Ellen,

thanks for that correction, I thought the 50% number was rather high. Maybe the rest of the numbers are askew too, there are no sources mentioned

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Oldsarge,
There are several unemployment numbers. U6 counts all those who are unemployed, underemployed, etc. That's the 11-12% figure. Krugman discusses it at the NYT, Brad DeLong on his blog, Mark Thoma on his blog, and there are several other places. I wouldn't recommend commenting on those blogs unless you're knowledgeable.
z2v

The Levy Institute has done pretty well at making medium term economic projections. They looked at the fiscal stimulus issue back in April.

Fiscal Stimulus Policy
Analysis

Their summary statement was:

"As the government prepares to dispense the tax rebates that largely make up its recently approved $168 billion stimulus package, President Dimitri B. Papadimitriou and Research Scholars Greg Hannsgen and Gennaro Zezza explore the possibility of an additional fiscal stimulus of about $450 billion spread over three quarters—challenging the notion that a larger and more prolonged additional stimulus is unnecessary and will generate inflationary pressures. They find that, given current projections of even a moderate recession, a fiscal stimulus totaling $600 billion would not be too much. They also find that a temporary stimulus—even one lasting four quarters—will have only a temporary effect. An enduring recovery will depend on a prolonged increase in exports, the authors say, due to the weak dollar, a modest increase in imports, and the closing of the current account gap."

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Total GSE holdings are $5.3 trillion, not 1.6.

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Total GSE holdings are $5.3 trillion, not 1.6.

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Does that mean that total GSE holdings are $10.6 trillion?

@ Ellen Yes, but, it is equally true they are not 3.2 trillion.

The problems with our economy are artificial. Very similar to the Great Depression. Then we had ample resources, and millions of workers willing to use those resources to make goods and services for a robust economy. The problem was MONEY. Money is only a medium of exchange. Our goods and services could not be exchanged, because the medium had been cornered by the elite. Look at the old cartoons of bankers during the '30's. They were despised. It is like a monopoly game. After awhile, one player in monopoly will monopolize the money and the resources to earn money. The game will soon shut down. In monopoly, we start the game over. We need to do that now with our economy. Confiscate the money grabed by the theives who have not really earned it (hedge funds,etc.)and use it to decrease/eliminate private and public debt. If that sounds radical, it is. It would also work. A real economic problem is when there is drought, or war or disease has killed off much of the work force, or severe natural disasters, etc. We are experiencing a man-made problem that could be solved with man-made solutions.

You need a class in Economics. Specifically you need to look into how the Fed manipulates the value of the dollar. I'll make it simple for you: More dollars mean lower dollar value. Lower dollar value means oil cost more, food cost more and imported items cot more. A lower value dollar mean US products are less expensive for other countries to purchase. This increases our exports (good thing). The bottom line: I think you are stoned.

Yo OldSarg,
Check it out buddy, US trade deficits are and have been out of balance for years. The recent devaluation of the dollar against other currencies such as the euro, was supposed to produce what you describe. Guess what, it ain't working because banks, especially US banks, are over leveraged. Plus add the fact US manufacturing is now less than 10% of GDP and financial services were closer to 30%, well you get the picture. Faroff, is pointing out that all the CEOs making hugh layoffs of American workers and giving themselves fat bonuses has and effect eventual. The wealth imbalance is causing a slow motion implosion of the world economy. 80% of the worlds population is about to experience a lowering of living standard. Their wealth flowed up stream to a few people. The rich walk around talking about culling the population, saying their are too many people. Watch what happens next.

Keep in mind that after Bush took office in 2001, Alan Greenspan signed on to Bush's economic policy programs. Greenspan lower FED lending rates to 1% and left them there. Housing of course took off and formed a bubble due to deregulation and low interest money. Add the deficit spending caused by "the war on terror" and trillion dollar tax cuts, and here we are. It was done on purpose of course. Kiss your country good bye. My guess is unless you are a millionaire you going down.

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OldSarg says.

You need a class in Economics.


So Sarg, should we sign up for Krugman's class or
Enron Phil Gramm's?

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Good one. I think Oldsarg gets his wisdom from the Ludwig von Mises Asylum of Auburn, Alabama.

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We keep sending jobs to every place around the globe that has lesser cost of production.

This is really dumb. Every time I hear someone say that labor costs in the U.S. are too high or uncompetitve I want to puke. The cost of labor in the U.S. is simply a reflection of the cost of living in the U.S. The same applies to the cost of energy and everything else that is required to manufacture a product. All the executives of corporations that send manufacturing elsewhere are worried only about their bottom line. They don't think for a second what happens when Americans lose jobs. People without money can't buy products at any price.

In the end it is just plain dumb to pit the American work force against that of China or Taiwan or Indonesia. Look at the standard of living in those areas and it become immediately apparent why there is a differential. Corporate executives who complain about this are basically saying they don't like America becasue it is too expensive to live here. Dumb bastards.

Then they want bail outs from the gov. during the downturn after they axed american jobs and gave themselves fat bonuses.

Sometimes I am just stunned by the cluelessness of most here about how economies work. Folks, business is in business to make money. If they don't make money, they don't pay taxes, or provide jobs. You DO want taxes and jobs, right? Then you should encourage business rather than harm it.

We keep sending jobs to every place around the globe that has lesser cost of production. This is really dumb.
Not if your job is to make money.
Every time I hear someone say that labor costs in the U.S. are too high or uncompetitve I want to puke. The cost of labor in the U.S. is simply a reflection of the cost of living in the U.S.
And that is a reason to go elsewhere. Boeing has decided to strike over job security. Damaging one's source of job security would seem like a very bad idea but that doesn't seem to be part of the calculus. If Boeing leaves won't the employees be surprised? Duh.
They don't think for a second what happens when Americans lose jobs. People without money can't buy products at any price.
Actually the 94% of the country employed does have money to spend. You should broaden your field of vision. You'll see the sky ISN'T falling.
Corporate executives who complain about this are basically saying they don't like America becasue it is too expensive to live here. Dumb bastards.
It's their job to get the best deal possible. Meanwhile, living somewhere is NOT the same as working somewhere. It would seem it's you, that has the wrong idea about how the world works.
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And how many banks failed this year? And why has it become necessary for the government to take over Fannie and Freddy. That you can't see things are in the shitter informs us who is clueless. Stick you BS in your ass.

And how many banks failed this year? And why has it become necessary for the government to take over Fannie and Freddy. That you can't see things are in the shitter informs us who is clueless. Stick you BS in your ass.

Nice. Do you kiss your significant other with that mouth? While I'm at it, what's up with the preoccupation with "asses" on this blog? Tsk.

Anyway, perhaps you should read this for backround from a different direction. It turns out we should have discriminated against the poor.

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airgun177,

I'm baaack!! Sorry, about those sled dogs. I was sure you would go to the citation and feel like your leash had been jerked. I never dreamed you would expose yourself as a credulous bozo by complaining.

So you're also an expert on economics? Really? What's your opinion on the Coase Theorem?

Cheers,
z2v

This is very true, but reduction to cost of living in the US is VERY POSSIBLE. Unfortunately, it will require us to change our habits a lot. We might have to do without air conditioning in the summer, we might have to adopt an effective government policy to create extra apartments and housing close to where we work, and we might have to end wasteful office practices, unhealthy eating, and a whole host of other things that some of us think they can't live without.

Implementing a "progressive" reform to the economy just might end up prolonging the success of this American Economic Juggernaut, responsible for the terrible and unsustainable destruction of the earth's environment. Just to be clear, unsustainable is a serious disadvantage that no "progressive" policy can overcome so long as that policy focuses on "job creation" and other methods that only ensure a violent level of resource extraction.

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Ellen,

thanks for that correction, I thought the 50% number was rather high. Maybe the rest of the numbers are askew too, there are no sources mentioned

Shooter & OldSarg you are each wrong when you say that those who disagree with you need a course in economics. I have had the economic courses you are referring to, and so have most who post here. What you are not acknowledging is that there are other ways to look at the grand theory of economics. The predominate view in the United States at present is the so-called "Chicago School", ie, a reference to the Economic Theories of the University of Chicago. President Bush, and many of his advisors assume that the Chicago School's theories are "facts." They aren't. There are more ways to run a country and more ways to have a robust economy than to let the Robber Barrons run unfettered. The Chicago School running unfettered is close to what we have had the past 30 years. Do we not see the ultimate results? This economy will continue to decline unless we reign in the outsourcing to other countries and, somehow, eliminate the massive debt that has built up. What is debt, afterall? It is only a piece of paper that documents that one party owes money to another party. We now have a situation where a small group of the elite own massive amounts of debt owed by the rest. I know, you can argue that our "pension funds, etc. own this debt. ie, that the average man owns his own debt." That is nonsense. The wealthy one percent pretty much own it all now. We need to tear up their pieces of paper. We need to confiscate and eradicate much of the debt and outlaw most outsourcing. Incidentally, I have zero debt.

Outlaw outsourcing is bad bad policy. Don't even talk about that BS. The way to do it stop giving out tax credits altogether. Make corporations pay taxes they owe like everyone else. They want to sell goods here? Pay the taxes.

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I've always thought it odd that the government recently handing out (unearned) money to us to 'stimulate' the economy raised no Republican screeds. But if the government were to create programs to put people to work, the end product being a stimulus to the economy, Republicans would have gone ballistic. Queer, to say the least.

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I don't find the Republicans' position vis-a-vis the stimulus act to be contradictory.

What you refer to as "handing out (unearned) money" can better be characterized as two-thirds tax rebate* and one-third third tax incentives, the latter benefiting businesses. But both forms of stimulus are standard Republican policy responses to economic difficulties.

* Which increases this year's deficit ("Ronald Reagan proved deficits don't matter." Richard B. Cheney, long-time Republican)

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phelicity,
I think I remember the Democrats trying to put some infrastructure creation into the stimulus and the Republics refusing.

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As Krugman said today,"the Bush administration refused to consider any measure that couldn’t be labeled a tax cut."

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Ellen,
Right. And the D's wanted to do things with the most bang for the buck, but the Republics demanded $ for business. So the D's held their noses, compromised, and did the best they could. The D's wanted things like a SS tax holiday but that's the wrong kind of tax cut. Or extended unemployment benefits.

This recession is not even close to over -- if Roubini is to be believed. There's reasons galore to apply more stimulus, but revenue neutral this time.

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Right. And the D's wanted to do things with the most bang for the buck, but the Republics demanded $ for business.

That's an important point.
Numbers I saw around that time suggested that the ROI for putting people to work was around $1.7 per dollar spent.(I recall $7 to $1, but I'm not positive, and that sounds ... optimistic - if so, notdoing so borders on criminal negligence)
Note that acronym - ROI - that's Return on Investment, generally a business term. It should be obvious that maximizing it is in your best interest. It is intended to quantify the benefit of any given spending that can be differentiated from overhead.
A semantic point, but a powerful one, in my mind.
Getting back to my initial point - the numbers I saw at the time suggested that tax rebates were ~$0.30 per dollar.
170% vs 30% seems like a no-brainer, frankly.
700% vs 30% just makes the comparison absurd.
For a consumer-driven economy?
I mean, is that seriously a question?
(blinks)

user-pic

:-)
The Republicans were also optimizing bang for the buck. Dollar -> fat cat -> campaign donation -> checking account. Like Blackwater donates many millions more than the few, the proud, the brave ever will. Who did a better job of guarding embassies? Who were subject to military law rather than none? Who could be disciplined for drinking on duty? And plinking Iraqi government guards while drunk?

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For many American airheads electing Obama is a scary proposition precisely because he embodies very real change. Like a bad marriage that they stay in they would rather endure the pain of the status quo than overcome the inertia to change.

Dr.Rick Lippin
Southampton,Pa

"The ideal stimulus would involve battery clamps, an electric source, and Bush administration officials."

All you would need is a rope.

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The ideal stimulus would be to let the banks go under and instead of having taxpayers underwrite and prop up the very thieves who built this house of cards, have the taxpayers back low-interest loans directly to the people. Screw the banks and investment houses. They're nothing but con artists.

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