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It's Not Obama's Veep Who'll Save Him....

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Any day now, a glossy savant like David Brooks or Nicholas Lemann will sigh theatrically that almost no Democratic nominee - think of McGovern, Mondale, Dukakis, Gore, Kerry, and maybe Obama - has played rough and dirty enough when it counted. Only Bill and Hillary showed the shameless determination it takes to win. Why, oh why, the pundits will ask, have so many Democrats left us looking for the fire in their bellies?

The answer has little to do with the candidates themselves being too innocent, nuanced, confused, or weak, as the licensed cynics often pretend. Even Slick Willie won in 1992 thanks partly to Ross Perot. The Democrats' problem is political and economic, long before it's psychological. Focusing on candidates' personal weaknesses and assessing vice-presidential nominees as steroids only dodges the deeper truth that most of us aren't free enough to get candidates we deserve - or to bring the best out of them when we do.

Sometimes followers have to lead leaders, as Theda Skocpol noted here two days ago, to resounding applause. But what are we ready to demand that Obama fight for?

The problem everyone sidesteps is that Democrats are entangled as inextricably as Republicans in the thinking and practices of the corporate welfare state and its consumer-marketing juggernaut that are destroying the American republic.

Republicans, though, actually celebrate America's becoming a global market empire in a national-security regime. So they can easily cast Democrats as hypocrites for vowing to lead us from the fleshpots of our deepening slavery -- with its pseudo-escapes and awful addictions -- into a hard wilderness of painful reform on the way to a civic-republican promised land.

Democrats aren't really ready to lead us into that wilderness, not least because we, their supporters, aren't ready to go! We like to feel better by hearing them promise to take Republicans there! No wonder we settle for nominees who aren't really angry in the right ways.

I don't think we should rouse the temperamental kind of anger for which McCain is known and which a black candidate like Obama daren't show in a campaign. I don't even crave the deeper, personal anger without which Dukakis looked so hapless in the headlights of Bernard Shaw's indecent question about what he'd do if Kitty Dukakis were raped, or the anger without which John Kerry took Swift-Boat and wind-surfer derision lying down.

That kind of anger certainly does have its uses: Kerry should have back hit hard on Bush's indisputable draft-dodging, and his campaign should have re-broadcast relentlessly a few choice swaggers and lines from Bush's flight-deck "Mission Accomplished" speech. Similarly, Obama, in one of the upcoming debates and then in ads 24/7, should humiliate McCain with scenes of him in Nevada in 2004 offering worshipful accolades and a gross bear hug to the same George W. Bush whose operatives had disparaged and humiliated McCain four years before with ugly rumors about his adopted daughter.

But the anger we really need if we want to do more than win elections that produce landfills of disillusionment involves a determination deeper and even darker than what goes into a candidate's personal pride. The closest I've seen Obama come to posing a serious challenge borne of the clean anger I'm talking about came in his answer to Rick Warren's query about what he'd tell the American people if he weren't worrying about political consequences.

Obama answered that solving the energy crisis will require big sacrifices and lifestyle changes from everyone, sacrifices equivalent to those made by children of the Depression and World War II; now it's our turn to sacrifice for future generations as Americans of the 1930s and '40s did for us.

The audience applauded, but are they or we really ready? If not, Obama won't be. The fault will be not in our political stars but in ourselves.

I always have to say at this point that what I'm trying to pull out of Obama and the rest of us is not a Marxist revolution, class war, or some post-capitalist utopia we can win by singing Kumbaya or coming home to Jesus.

Such charges are always made by the Brookses, Lemanns, and other self-appointed monitors of liberal discourse every time a critic of capitalism opens his mouth. The apologists' hackles rise faster than their paychecks from conglomerate publishers and elite non-profit corporations whenever a Bill Moyers, William Greider, Thomas Frank, Michael Moore, or other dissenter speaks.

But one needn't agree with everything critics of corporate capitalism say to see that the current system's rising economic and psychological crises demand a reckoning we aren't getting even from neoliberals such as Fareed Zakaria, Thomas Freedman, and others who write around and around the problem without really naming it.

The problem is American and global corporate capitalism, which are no longer what you were told they were! Most of us uphold a taboo against saying so. The taboo owes almost as much to the rigidities of the Marxist, especially Stalinist, old left, not to mention the fatuities of the New and post-modernist lefts, as it does to the triumphs, repressions and seductions of the corporate state itself. But the taboo can and must be broken without returning to any of that.

There is an indigenous, civic-republican American leftist tradition, of Eugene V. Debs and Norman Thomas, of Moyers, Greider, and, in some respects, John Kenneth Galbraith and James Galbraith, among others. It began before the wrong lefts I've mentioned. We need to recover it to keep the republic.

When Obama says "change will be hard," is this what he means? It had better be, even if it is not what Robert Rubin means. The civic-republican leftist tradition does not oppose entrepreneurial capitalism in free markets. It understands that capitalism, in its proper time and place, liberates people from tribalistic blood feuds and ancient superstitions and generates the wealth a society needs to move forward.

But precisely because the American civic-republican tradition values capitalism, it is quick to notice when corporations and seceding elites, parading under the banners of free markets, disrupt, destroy, and dissolve the entrepreneurial and civic wellsprings of republican freedom into the prerogatives of a global ruling class that's unaccountable to any polity or moral code.

Does Obama notice, too? Or is he a neoliberal like Zakaria or Friedman, who gloss the civic perils of capitalism as we know it? It's a question I've raised about Obama here before, arguing that the answer depends largely on us.

Would a majority of the American people even allow Obama to be better than a neoliberal? Any serious critic of corporate capital would face insurmountable odds against its dependants, disgruntled though they are, and against Pharoah's phalanxes of vain but increasingly desperate apologists, whose own bottomless hypocrisies and fatuities align them only too well with the vast, obese swath of American casualties of the present dispensation.

Those Americans want certitudes, not confusion, confirmation of life as it is, not summonses to a more strenuous life on a hard road. They crave the appearance of clarity and conviction in leaders, even if substantively it's anchored only in a pathetic notion that this leader would have beer with you or sit your grandchildren comfortably on his knee.

In a country that doesn't want to know, the man of blind clarity is king. The one-eyed man is hapless, and the clear-eyed man is crucified.

But I still dream of a different country: The next time Obama tells a crowd, "I love you back" - in Denver, perhaps - I dream of a Bruce Springsteen type with a megaphone getting up and saying, "No, man, we don't want you to love us back; we want you to fight for us!" And I dream of the crowd joining him in chanting, "Fight for us! Fight for us!," showing a clean anger and strength that might fluster Obama a little but also rouse in him a cleaner, more determined anger than even he had realized was there.

From that kind of determination, running from the candidate's supporters to him, not the other way 'round, would come Obama's strength to go for the political jugular of the blind man who is his opponent, the man who hugged Bush, wears $500 shoes, has more than few homes, cheats with lobbyists, and hasn't a clue about how capitalism works best and how it has gone wrong.

At this point, loving him back means pushing him back. This is no time for fainteartedness. As a hymn from Obama's own Congregational tradition warns:

Who so beset him 'round
With dismal stories
Do but themselves confound;
His strength the more is.
No foe shall stay his might
Though he with giants fight
He will make good his right
To be a Pilgrim.

But Obama's strength from here to November won't be "the more" on faith alone. It can't grow unless more followers point the leader in the right direction. Theda Skocpol is right. As Ben Franklin told the bystander who asked what kind of government the delegates to Philadelphia's Constitutional Convention were preparing: "A republic, if you can keep it."


29 Comments

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Can we PLEASE stop with the zombie myth that Clinton only won in 1992 because of Perot? Exit polls and political science research all indicate that Perot voters would have split essentially evenly between Bush and Clinton. Clinton won because Bush was an unpopular President, not because Perot split the Republican vote.

Thanks - you beat me to it. Anything to diminish "Slick Willy" regardless of whether it's based in facts or myth.

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This myth just makes me insane. I've been listening to people trot it out regularly for 16 years now. It's not like academics didn't publish papers on this topic or anything.....

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I grew up in arch-conservative Orange County California and worked in the aerospace industry there for fifteen years. Consequently, I had to listen to proto-fascist Republican Party blowhards practically my whole life. And the hardest-right Republicans among them that I ever knew or worked with campaigned obnoxiously -- and voted overwhelmingly -- for Ross Perot, a blusterning billionaire Texas businessman of the type Republicans just love and true Democrats loathe. On the other hand, I cannot remember ever meeting a fellow-Democrat who considered Ross Perot anything but a raving Repubican kook.

I used to point out to my reactionary Republican friends and colleagues that if they voted for Ross Perot, then they would split their own Republican ticket and throw the election to Bawl and Pillory Clinton, the arch-fiend "Democrats." I nearly got my head torn off for even suggesting such an outrageous thing! That would imply Republican disloyalty to the Republican brand and no Republican would ever admit to any such apostasy -- even while deliberately committing the very heresy they decry. Classic Orwellian Doublethink, actually. Or, clinical double-bind schizophrenia.

Once, just to get a rise out of my troglodyte co-workers at the Hughes Aircraft Company in Fullerton, California, I hung a picture of Hillary Clinton on the wall of my office and immediately started hearing a friggin' Anvil Chorus of right-wing, Perot-touting engineers call me a "communist." If you seriously think any of those reactionary Republicans would vote for a Democrat of any sort whatsoever -- especially a Clinton -- then you need your head examined for John McCain "senior moment" dementia.

As for your so-called "exit poll research" that you claim shows "Democrats" voting for Ross Perot in equal numbers as Republicans, I will only answer that counter-intuitive nonsense by pointing out that "conservative" Democrats, especially the self-styled "Reagan Democrats" (an oxymoron if I ever heard one) regularly vote Republican in large numbers anyway (and often pose as "Democrats" in corporate newspaper columns or on Internet bulletin boards). So if Ross Perot got any votes from "Democrats," then he got it from this reactionary demographic constituency -- one that would seldom vote for a Democratic presidential candidate -- or ever for a Clinton -- in any event.

The hisotric votes cast in 1992 and 1996 show that Bill Clinton twice barely squeaked into a plurality presidency without ever once winning a majority of the popular vote in America -- not even when running as an inumbent with an old, feeble opponent like Bob Dole. Bill Clinton got whatever Democrats a Democrat can get. That means he twice got barely enough votes with a split Republican ticket in 1992 and 1996. This situation reflected a significantly bad rift in the "conservative" demographics of crypto-fascist America, especially in the hard-right base of the Republican Party. This fanatical fringe wanted to punish any Republican candidate who would dare to stray from the Ronald RayGun voodoo-economic orthodoxy. Having sent their message via the Ross Perot vehicle in 1992 (19% of the vote subtracted from the Republican incumbent) -- the apostate Republican president George H. W. Bush got the boot from his own party and his empty-suit son, Deputy Dubya Bush, heard the lesson loud and clear. Point made; point taken.

These same same "conservative" Ross Perot fanatics returned to their home in the Republican Party with a vengence in 1994 and swept-in a virtual tide of reactionary Republican Congressmen led by Newt (the immature salamander) Gingrich. If you want to know the identity and number of Republicans who voted for Ross Perot in 1992, simply look at the identity and number of Republicans who voted for Newt Gingrich and his rabid pack of reactionary rodents in 1994.

Of course, Gingrich and his rabid crew of Repubican cretins over-reacted to their new found power and convinced a bare plurality of American voters that -- as much as they didn't like the Clinton marital psychodrama and Hillary Healthcare fiasco, that they still didn't want a Republican back in the White House in 1994.

So, to summarize all this for you, in the words of PBS commentator Mark Shields: "Two words describe Bill Clinton's election in 1992: 'Ross Perot.' Two words describe Bill Clinton's re-election in 1996: 'Newt Gingrich.'" Exit-poll, Bradley-Effect lying by Republican Ross Perot voters and "conservtive" Reagan Democrats to the contrary, that about explains things as well as anyone ever will.

Re: On the other hand, I cannot remember ever meeting a fellow-Democrat who considered Ross Perot anything but a raving Repubican kook.

Up in Michigan a lot of the Reagan Democrats were attracted to Perot and voted for him in 1992. Thereafter many of them returned to voting Democratic in presidential elections, notbaly in 1996 and 2000 (in 2004 a significant number did cross back over to Bush, but no where near as many as had voted for Reagan-- hence Bush's narrow victory in 2004, far narrower the Reagan's 84 landslide). Also, while I agree Perot was a bit kooky, he was not kooky in a Republican way at all-- he was pro-Choice, didn't give a hoot about gays one way or the other, didn't want to bomb anyone back to Stone Age, and preached endlessly against the Reagan-Bush deficits. As someone once put it he was neither Right nor Left, but represented the Radical (and rather pissed off) Middle.
Now, as far as the elections go. Perot's main achievement in 1996 was to deny Clinton a true majority. There was never a time when Dole was leading that year even before Perot was in the race, and Perot's 1996 numbners were a mere ghost of his 92 performance anyway.
The 1992 situation was more complex. Perot helped Clinton early on, by making an indpendent, non-partisan and quite hard-hitting critqiue of the Bush administration. Perot convinced a lot of people (including people who had no plans to vote for him) that the emperor truly had no clothes. When Perot dropped out of the race, Clinton surged, indicating that many Perot voters shifted over to him. Maybe these people would have voted for Clitnon anyway: we can never know for sure. But Clinton led Bush all through the two man race of the summer of 1992, and when Perot re-entered the race he took back a large chunk of his supporters. There is no reason to believe that Clinton would have lost the election had Perot not re-entered the race-- and every reason to believe the opposite. However we will never know if Clinton would have won without Perot's presence on the political landscape at all.

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I don't agree that it's our fault that we have lousy leaders and lackluster would-be leaders.

Obama should be on a cake-walk right now, when one considers Repub corruption, wars, debt, unemployment, inflation, a stupid opponent and the ever-present use of fear to restrain American thought.

He isn't. He promises change but doesn't deliver on any basic changes to corporate welfare, executive privilege, war (oh yes, he wants more), trade policy, medical care/costs, education, Patriot Act, Pentagon budget, drug war, Palestine, ballot access . . .the list goes on. So, like with Kerry, if all you're offered is Bush-lite you might as well go for the real thing, or stay home.

Is this our fault, that Obama doesn't have a clue about what we need and want? No.

Wow. Reading your post, I get the impression you have absolutely no idea what Sen. Obama's platform is. Either that, or you seem to think that he's already President, and hasn't lived up to his campaign promises.

The real reason Democrats usually lose, is they stand around in a circle, sniping at each other, while the Republicans pull together behind their candidate, no matter how lousy he is.

And if the Republicans run out of ammunition, that's OK... the Democrats will reload their guns for them.

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Can we maybe stop saying that the current generations need to make sacrifices on par with the World War II generation?

I mean... we don't.

And I think the World War II generation maybe sacrificed more than they would have had they been more mindful of their civil rights and liberties. There were really elements of a police state in the US back then. It's nothing to look back on with nostalgia and nothing to wish upon ourselves.

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I think we're a lot closer to a police state NOW.

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Great point, destor. I blame it all on Tom Brokaw and his greatest generation shtick. Both my parents were from that generation, I have a ton of aunts and uncles from that generation, and in estate work I have for decades made friends with people of that generation (and the earlier one!) from allover the country, and I think I can safely say that what most of them have in common is that they seem to have the attitude that romanticizing the 30's 40's and 50's is a crock of shit. I can't think of one that isn't happy to see those times gone. Actually, the more I think of it, the more I think of their defining zeitgeist is a strong belief that life should be easier, and that is what they hoped for for the next generations.

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Here's one good study on how the Perot vote would have split between Bush and Clinton:

"...49.5% of Perot voters would have voted for Bush; 50.5% would have voted for Clinton."


Citation:
Economics, Issues and the Perot Candidacy: Voter Choice in the 1992 Presidential Election
R. Michael Alvarez and Jonathan Nagler
American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 39, No. 3 (Aug., 1995), pp. 714-744

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But isn't it the case that most exit polls tend to be questionably informative -- poorly drafted questions, poorly trained pollsters, self-selecting responders, etc. -- and should rarely be relied upon in serious (rather than polemical) studies?

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I think arguing why Clinton won in '92 and '96 doesn't do Sleeper's very good post justice.

Who is Barack Obama the politician? He is obviously not a 'Progressive Saviour' judging by his FISA vote. I knew he wasn't before that vote but that vote was very troubling to me. He had the chance to stand up and say "I will fight for you" but instead he took the politically expedient route that wouldn't cause much controversy and supported the FISA bill, even after insisting that if it contained telecom immunity he would filibuster it. So he had a clear choice and he opted for not opening himself up to a potential partisan political attack and supporting corporate donors of his party...and not 'we the people'. Some of 'we the people' tried to 'explain' to Obama why he made the wrong choice and we were dismissed as out of touch progessives and even radicals while he bemoaned 'the attacks from my left'. While some of 'the attacks' surely came from his left informed Americans from across the political landscape put a high value on 'little things' like the 4th amendment...and Obama said to many would be supporters that AT&T, Sprint, Verizon, etc. are more important than we are. And shortly after his support started to wane. He went from an 'agent of change' who was willing to fight tough fights (and most importantly icluding those which will have to be fought on the behalf of the American people) on principles to 'just another DC politician' in about 3.2 seconds. And ironically the people 'on his left' still support him it is potential voters from the center and right who are fed up the Republican incompetence who he lost.

Obama in the last few days has shown that he is willing to fight campaign fights with McCain, which is a good sign, but until he shows he will fight for the American people I expect his poll numbers will continue sliding. When given a choice of 2 candidates, who are both percieved to be 'business as usual' DC politicians the electorate will go with experience over a relatively unknown newcomer no matter how odious the experienced politico is... as the old saying goes, better to stay with the devil you know than the one you don't.

So will Obama show he will fight for the American people or will he continue down the path of a DC politico just trying figure out what to say to get elected? And the American people want to know too before they make their final decision...

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Obama has made it crystal clear from the beginning that he is a compromiser and not a progressive, so his "change you can believe in" slogan is pure baloney, with nothing to back it up.

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Well I don't know if that was the case from the very beginning Don or I wouldn't have thrown my full support to him, but it is becoming more obvious that 'change we can believe in' probably is more than just a slogan...but I digress. I knew he was from the political center and not from the liberal side of the political spectrum but I also thought he was gonna try to change the way business is done in DC...being from the center and wanting change aren't mutually exclusive. Unfortunately the only message given since then is he is a 'business as usual' guy.

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Obama's Kos diary posting from 2005:

…According to the storyline that drives many advocacy groups and Democratic activists - a storyline often reflected in comments on this blog - we are up against a sharply partisan, radically conservative, take-no-prisoners Republican party. They have beaten us twice by energizing their base with red meat rhetoric and single-minded devotion and discipline to their agenda. In order to beat them, it is necessary for Democrats to get some backbone, give as good as they get, brook no compromise, drive out Democrats who are interested in "appeasing" the right wing, and enforce a more clearly progressive agenda. The country, finally knowing what we stand for and seeing a sharp contrast, will rally to our side and thereby usher in a new progressive era.
I think this perspective misreads the American people….
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2005/9/30/102745/165/500/153069

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s/b...

'probably isn't more than just a slogan'

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Given a choice between a fake Republican and a real Republican the American people will choose the real Republican every time. Harry Truman

-- with or without "experience."

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Touche Ellen...

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The Democrats lack both a philosophy and a narrative. The movement conservatives have relentlessly pursued a far right agenda and they found in Reagan a guy who could do the narrative.

I watch a lot of old movies with my elderly mother and it strikes me over and over how the narratives that wove through those old films from the 30's and 40's spoke to so many simple truths we're unable to articulate today. I think of all those old Jimmy Stewart movies like Mr. Smith and It's a Wonderful Life. These are antithetical to the police state the Cheneyites want to impose upon us.

We get blamed for being pointy headed intellectuals and I think that's true. The messages we need to deliver are quite simple. They're Norman Rockwell. They're the 4 freedoms and the fight against the bankers who want to foreclose on the starter homes in Bedford Falls and Jimmy Stewart fillibustering in a corrupt Congress.

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. . . the police state the Cheneyites want to impose upon us.

Not to mention the Bloombergers.

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At least that example has some sort of security reasoning behind it, pitiful tho it may be. It's when I see him go into full nanny state mode that I see visualize the Swiss dominiatrix outfit. Why is it such a rare thing to be able to find someone who is efficient at making government function who also knows where to draw the line? Why do those types always have to be so anal as to want to not just make the trains run on time but to regulate the bathroom functions of all citizens as well?

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Well, exit polls that are along the lines of "who would you have voted for if your candidate hadn't been running" is pretty straightforward, so question wording isn't a big concern. And exit polls have only been skewed over the last few cycles as Republicans have become more suspicious of them and younger voters (who are more willing to be polled) are so much more heavily Democratic than they were a decade or so ago. But the political science lit really isn't based on the exit polls.

No, I think I prefer Obama loving me back. I think I prefer a candidate who is smart and compassionate and passionate about what he believes in. I think I prefer a candidate with guts to go a different way.

We have had too much fighting and stagnation-- when what we need is cooperation and progress. Our government has fallen into the trap of doing and undoing the previous administration's "work" -- Bush 41 gave us massive deficits, Clinton undid it, Clinton gave us a budget surplus, Bush 43 undoes it, Bush 43 gave us a war, Obama will have to undo it. We cannot continue to govern as if we are on a treadmill going nowhere.

So no more endless fighting... time for real governing.

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I really can't take this 'how much Americans sacrificed during WW 2' crap much longer.

For Christ's sake - come back to Earth!

The nations that really sacrificed the most were Russia, Poland, France, England, Italy, the Benelux nations, Lithuania, Latvia, Denmark, Czechoslovakia........

Relatively speaking, the United States suffered little more than a minor boo-boo. And managed to somehow co-opt far more credit for the end result than it deserves (at least on the European front).

The United States has not collectively suffered a national collective hardship since the 1930s.

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Joe Biden, now that's REAL change we can believe in. Before FISA, before Biden, I could have at least tried to take Obama's WORD about changing Washington. It's blind faith, but at least there is still a sliver of Hope, you know, take a leap, go with the "historic candidate".


He's now brandishing a bottle of Washington SnakeOil and I'm told that I HAVE to STFU and buy it, because the other guy's wares are worse.

Any allusion to the Animal Farm irony is drowned out by choruses of "PUMAs! PUMAs!PUMAs!"

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So the Pigs are feeding at the same Wall St-AIPAC troughs but do we really want Farmer Jones-McCain back???

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It's Not Obama's Veep Who'll Save Him...

No, what will save the campaign is the American voters' willingness to cut through the Republican lies, but I fear too many voters are not up to the task, due either to laziness or lack of critical thinking skills.
And we have to fight the insane corporate media. Yesterday, Brokaw chided Pelosi for not supporting The Surge, which obviously has been a huge success.
Like a drunk, maybe America hasn't hit bottom enough yet to wake up.
Stop blaming Obama for things he has no control over.

I disagree with this statement that Dems don't have a narrative or philosophy or that somehow the Republicans do. (although it does seem to be a yin-yng kind of continuous mantra of "small government/lower taxes" vs. "govenment programs/raising taxes"). Dems are for the usual platforms (for better or worse) that they always have been for: civil rights, pro-labor, gov't regulation, etc.

The repugs are no different: they have their old favorites (for better or worse) and both parties tweak these platforms slowly over time according to conditions "on the ground", as it were.

I'm also very tired of the manra "Rebublicans support their candidate no matter what". Perhaps we should include a measure of ENTHUSIASM when we speak of this because when it comes time to go to the polls, BOTH parties can suffer from a lack of enthusiam...

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