I agree Theda. You do not say "That honorable guy questioned my patriotism!" You say, "that asshole had the nerve to question my patriotism because he's either a cranky old man, a senile old man or a desperate old man."

But I'm not sure why you think Biden can help.

It seems like ever since the Wesley Clark fiasco, the Obama camp has decided that they must risk no sharp attacks on McCain.

I don't get this. Clark had a point but he misfired to some extent. This should not have been taken to mean that no sharp attacks could work.

Ole laid back, easy does it, respect McCain the war hero and his service Barack Kerry is on his way to being an also ran.

Obama: 'Folks, make no mistake, I respect the war hero John McCain for his magnificent service to our country and his many honorable years in public service as a U S Senator......'

Public; 'OK, say no more, you convinced me, I'll vote for McCain."

And while you're at it, the democratic congress needs to get off their collective ass and start acting like a democratic congress. Introduce new bills, talk up new programs, deliver some change that can help people. What a disaster Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi have been for the party. I have never seen a party so uninvolved in a national election as important as this.

This (and Josh's front page post) should drive NCSteve and his brethren right through the roof! Heh-heh...

"Everything is fine!"
"You just wait til after the convention!"
"Just wait til he picks a running mate!"
"Just wait til he start really fighting back!"
"Who are you to question his campaign team?"
"How many campaigns have you run?"
"Watch what you say!! The MSM is watching and taking notes!"

*sigh*

Preach it sister.

Whoops, sorry about the bold type -- that was a boo-boo.

Obama is on track to lose.

The supposed high point of the campaign, the convention, is happening as Obama is failing.

Everyday, every thread has Obama supporters screaming for him to get tough. He hasn't and at this point really can't. It will just seem desperate.

How can you continue to ignore the fact that essentially as many people who supported Obama as the nominee also supported Clinton?

The trend and momentum are all important in an election. Right now McCain has it and is likely to keep it. There is really only one way to change the dynamic of this race in the Democrats favor. You guessed it: Hillary Clinton.

Clinton needs to be offered a free and clear shot to be the nominee at the convention. It would change the entire dynamic, through McCain off his game. She demonstrated quite well that she is a fighter and will not quit.

With the calls for Obama to win at any cost, attack, attack, attack, raise massive money to buy the election how can you all ignore that those methods were exactly what you claimed to despise in Clinton. Hillary Clinton is the only way to pull this one out of the fire.

I posted this over at Steve Clemons' site and I am reposting it here. Thank you Theda. I am so worried about the VP choice -- I fear that it is going to be the nail in the momentum coffin:

Remember all the excitement generated by the Clinton/Obama
primary? How with every state's turn to vote the media
breathlessly reported on all the thousands and thousands of new
voters, the long lines to vote, the harried local/county registars
talking about running out of ballots for people? How they'd
"never seen such numbers," how the excitement was palpable
and unprecedented, how the turn-out was like no other primary
in recent memory?

That's all over now, isn't it. The zeitgeist is flat and stale. Bored,
even.

With Clinton out of the mix, Obama now stands alone -- and he
is in total free-fall against one of the most comprised
presidential nominees in a very, very long time.

Pick Clinton. Bring back the vigor and excitement of the primary.
She's been through the ringer for the past, oh, 30 years, and she
can stand her own.

Talk about being seen as a sure bet on the economy. And of
course she has down sides, but who doesn't? Hair-plug Biden?
Please, talk about a Beltway Porcellian lifer. That choice would
certainly support the BO theme of change, huh.

But for me, an Obama voter, a cost-benefit analysis of a Clinton
VP shows far more upsides. She's such a known quantity, and
that would really counter his problem of being the exact
opposite.

She will also be one of the most effective fighters available -- in
direct opposition to Obama's current offensive strategy (term
used very loosely) of rainbows, unicorns, and sunny Shirley
Temples sent out to fight the Wehrmacht.

If Obama is too prissy to get down in the dirt with McCain then
for the love of god -- for the sake of our country -- choose
someone who will.

...and where are all the usually feisty Dems who can tell it like
it is such as Carville and Begala??? They've been awfully and oddly silent. Are they all still mourning Hill? Come on guys! Isn't the prospect of the neocons for 4 more years destroying America enough to motivate y'all to move?! I hate to say it but, country first... ouch. If I didn't know better I'd say they all want O to lose, then again, maybe they do but at what cost to us all?

By the way, where is he spending all of his campaign cash?

I'm not seeing many ads, and the ones I am seeing are blah, blah and blah.

Jeez, put the Will.I.Am videos on TV. Anything effective.

I can only hope he is saving all of his firepower for the fall.

Good post. I agree. Americans will not elect a wimp! Pleading for decent conduct from McCain is what weak children do against a bully. The messages continuous on television is that Obama is a celebrity, will raise taxes for families, and is not ready for leadership. And from Obama? Not much that sticks in my mind. Something about the same ole, same ole.

As far as the VFW speech, what the heck was he thinking?

Clinton lost because she had no plan B. Obama's people though it was because they beat her. McCain was watching.

Almost every Democrat knows they can lose the race in August. Obama went on vacation. Well, at least he didn't go windsurfing.

McCain has the momentum and if Obama does not wake up, it will become a landslide.

Just as Obama seems to give long winded responses, perhaps his people read how it was to be the Democrats year, and forgot they had to fight for it.

Apparently Barack has lost the election? Thanks for the update. I slept through the past two months. November 5th sure did get here fast.

OMG

He's gonna lose it.

Amen to everything. If you knew me, you'd know how incredible this next is, but I even agree that it might be time to make Hillary the VP. Things do change.

A few last thoughts before I get back to work:

Many people are desperately hoping the Obama GOTV operation will save the day. I know I am. I cling to it because it's the only thing that seems to be going well right now. But isn't a successful, election-determining GOTV operation predicated on the idea that the people you get to the polls give a sh*t about the candidate? I mean, what happens when there's a huge GOTV operation for a candidate that no one cares about? So what? Great, you got all 400 Obama enthusiasts to the local Vegas ballot box. Seems to me that a passion-filled GOTV operation needs passion for the candidate in order to work, right? I don't know, but after the excitement of the primary the bloom sure does seem to be off that rose.

And then I hope for an exciting VP choice, but man, that VP choice is going to be the consensus of all the geniuses who are advising Obama to be above the fray and praise McCain. Hello, their judgement sucks!!

Thank God we know that Obama reads TPM.

OBAMA! Listen to Skocpol! All of your supporters want you to start playing hardball! All of us! You won't be disappointing anyone! You said this is our campaign, right? Okay. I vote for you to start swinging.

Put on some AC/DC and start hammering the old geezer! Because that's what he is, Obama: a DANGEROUS, CREEPY, RICH, OUT-OF-TOUCH, MEAN-SPIRITED GEEZER!

THANK YOU!!!! I couldn't agree more. There are 2 campaigns taking place here. The "hit hard and fight back campaign" from sites like this (and Jed, C&L,Americablog etc.), and then there's Obama's and the DNC. It would behoove them to take note of this article and fix their campaign now.

Theda,

Well said. Wake up! Obama. Forget Kaine, Biden and Bayh. You and ur campaign quite your stubbornness and tap HRC for the number two.

Marshall Ganz is god
Theda Skocpol is goddess!

Damn, get out and knock some doors. This at home punditry exercise is pathetic. Decide to win your precinct and make it happen.

Well since every single commenter seems to agree wholeheartedly, how about I actually dissent from the Greek chorus of "woe woe is us our guy's a loser and if Hillary doesn't save him we're all doomed"?

Here's my take on it; just the opposite:

http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/deanie-mills/

We can all learn a little something from Ali's Rope-a-Dope.

Oh--and I thought the VFW speech was brilliant, as did my combat-vet husband, my combat-vet son, and other combat vets I know. It was McCain who was the whiner, and Obama who was coming up with real policies to help real veterans while McCain talked about restricting their care even MORE.

Don't think they don't know the difference.

Fighting isn't about just being tough. It's also about being SMART.

LET RALPH DEBATE!

Wow, I can feel you Maniacs frothing like Old Yeller right now ... Damn ... I love you guys, though ... :)

Who the Hell is running shit at Savior Central? How can a guy as charismatic as Obama be blowing a campaign to a senile nitwit who, in the words of the "esteemed" Pat Buchanan, makes Dick Cheney look like Gandhi?

I'd absolutely love to support Obama. But I don't know who he is or what he stands for. Take the fucking reigns off, and let's see the community organizer from the South Side, not this manufactured Stepford Democrat.

Quit courting Centrist, "Undecided" NASCAR Dad and pull real progressives back into the fold. FDR is rolling in his damn grave.

ARRRGGGHHHHHHH!

I hope someone from his damn campaign is reading this. I do not vote based on electability; rather, I vote based on my beliefs. That said, Obama better get me and the other Five Percenters hot and bothered, and quickly.

And further, Obama won't lose this. He really believes that "this election isn't about me." If you're not taking action at the local level to persuade your undecided neighbors then you're responsible for loosing this election. Ground game is more than GOTV, that's how he won Iowa, with a sustainable neighbor to neighbor persuasion tactic. Are you all waiting for vindication of your doomsday scenarios so that you'll be crowned head predictor? That's folly. Decide that we will win this and make it happen.

SOMEBODY,

PLEASE CALL THE OBAMA CAMPAIGN IN CHICAGO.

To reach the Campaign Headquarters by phone, please call: (866) 675-2008

Obama needs to be the one who stands up and takes on McCAin,

Obama on GOP: 'If They Bring a Knife to the Fight, We Bring a Gun'
The Hill , June 14, 2008

Barack Obama is warning supporters that the general election fight between him and John McCain may get ugly, but the Illinois senator is vowing not to back down. "If they bring a knife to the fight, we bring a gun," Obama said at a fundraiser in Philadelphia Friday, according to pool reports. "We don't have a choice but to win," Obama said, joking that he has heard "folks in Philly like a good brawl. I've seen Eagles games." Obama again said that the GOP will make try to make him look "scary" to voters. Obama pledging to swing back at the GOP drew much applause from the crowd. Republican National Committee spokesman Alex Conant said Obama's rhetoric abandons Obama's campaign themes of hope and change. "In the last 24 hours, he’s completely abandoned his campaign’s call for ‘new politics’, equating the election to a ‘brawl’ and promising to ‘bring a gun,’" Conant said.

You know what the democratics (obama x2: ie. Kerry, and Gore) remind me of?

A guy who can't break up with his girlfriend because he's been taught to be too nice.

Put me in the Greek chorus of those questioning Obama's campaign. And as I wrote over at Deanie's post, while rope-a-dope might have worked for Ali against the stronger puncher turned grill man Foreman in Zaire, it's not a campaign strategy. Anyone thinking that we should let McCain punch himself out is in a dangerous fantasyland.

As for the guerilla's prescriptions, they seem so obvious it hardly bears mentioning, but here are a few.

Define your opponent. Define yourself.

Define your opponent: The Republicans have been successful by going after the candidate's perceived strengths. Kerry portrayed himself as a heroic soldier. Cue the Swiftboaters. Obama draws huge crowds and adulation? It's nothing but celebrity. McCain? His biggest asset is his image as a maverick and a straight talker, someone who acts on principle: Cue the video showing his numerous reversals on issues like the Bush tax cuts. Seen as independent of GWB: Cue the video of him praising Bush as one of our greatest Presidents. Correctly supported the surge: Cue the video of his many statements that victory was around the corner.

Define yourself: The change theme has run its course. That may have appealed to the Democratic primary electorate, but as Hillary's success in the later primaries indicates, the voters who are likely to decide this election want something else. Hammer the economic message. Show some fire in the belly. Some understanding. A plan of action. Don't run away from the Clinton administration's record on the economy. The primary is over. Voters trust the Democrats on the economy for a reason. Drop the rhetoric about blaming Washington and add some meat and potatoes.

A wimpy campaign?
By a Democrat?
Shocking!

Alas, when will they ever learn ...

Although the situation is concerning but it is NOT dire.

Hello it is August BEFORE the Democratic convention.

Now if Obama was BEHIND in October than the situation would be considered dire.

AMEN!!! Sums it up.

I guess the passion shows that you really care and I think that will ultimately be reflected by the turnout in November and an overwhelming victory.

A few points from a (somewhat) objective Canadian observer:

1. Likely good that it's August and people are on vacation and not really paying close attention
2. Election season does not really begin until after the conventions
3. There were similar coments made during the primaries and Obabma managed to rise above while Hillary took the low road
4. I'm sorta glad that this is happening right now; it's tough to win a race when you're leading all the way
5. When this election really gets going in the fall, the Obama money machine will roll over McCain
6. People will ultimately realize that they don't want four more years of bellicosity and failed policies

1. Make ads for people who hate Obama
2. Do not put Obama in the ads
3. Make ads for people who do not trust politicians
4. Do not put politicians in the ads
5. Make some ads that people like. Is this news? Pepsi? MacDonalds? I havent seen one good ad.
6. People have been burned by the lies. WMD. Iraq. They do not trust the news. They leave the room if the ad looks like the news.
7. You have a great candidate.
8. You have a great message.
9. Please, FIND A MESSENGER PEOPLE CAN TRUST.
10. Or do what you did in 2000 and 2004. Wait until it's too late, and talk about what went wrong.

Thumbs up on your post, Theda...until you get to the part about Hillary being the correct fighter for the team. (Fortunately that is at the end.)
You are right as rain on all of the rest, though. I hope you've inspired Obama to rummage around and find the boxing gloves. It ought to be as easy as pie to slap McCain's offal directly into the fan as soon as it is loosed - if a paddle is at the ready.

If you're not playing offense, you're losing--it's really as simple as that. Obama needs to realize that as much as he'd like to run a positive campaign, it just ain't gonna happen. He's running against a Republican, and with them, it's destroy or be destroyed. Period. Obama needs to destroy McCain.

No more Mr. Nice Guy, Barack. Hit him until he falls.

I agree. Taking off the gloves means taking off the gloves, not increase the number of words or turn up the volume and certainly don't repeat false charges--that only gives them more life.

Well, I for one now have finally gained some of that *hope* because I see from this thread and others that irrational Obama-mania is over and done with at TPM. But that's me, grateful for small favors and ever optimistic that good things nationally could come out of the signifier of *change* in a single demographic. Do many commenters here realize that you are in the process of disproving McCain's "Obama is a celeb with mindless irrational fans" ads by your very complaints about his campaign?

With all due respect -- and you are due a lot of it -- I think you're getting ahead of yourself and letting your emotions run away with your reason.

To start with, despite your impressive resume, I will put my money on Axelrod, Gibbs, and Obama every day of the week -- and twice on Sunday -- that they know more about what they're doing and how to do it, than you do. They've been in tight races before, and they played it masterfully. See, e.g., the democratic primary for U.S. Senate that launched Obama into federal politics. Yes, there were some fortuitous personal meltdowns in that race, but the Obama campaign was masterful. Take a look at Mendell's biography of Obama for a good account.

Second, and more importantly -- and I hope you're a baseball fan, so that you understand where I'm coming from -- you seem to want Mariano Rivera warming up in the second inning, when the score at the end of the first is 4-4. That's ridiculous, it's over-spending, and it leaves you with nothing in the later innings when it counts. Yes, (and to keep with the baseball metaphor) this is the World Series. But on August 20, a few days out from the convention and before there's even a VP, it's probably not even game five, let alone the middle innings of game seven.

Obama has built a RIDICULOUS ground game throughout all 50 states. McCain has a pile of shit for a ground game -- all he has are commercials. He's not registering anyone -- Obama's registering a SHIT-HOUSE of new voters (which raises the important question of what a "likely voter" is -- my understanding is that it is based on past voting activity ... many of Obama's voters aren't going to have ANY past voting experience ... they're first timers or first-in-a-long-timers). McCain can't change that, he's locked into what he can do, and it's one-dimensional. Obama's got people on the ground, he's got a huge ad budget, he's got the whole package.

Obama is starting to "get tough." He's done it slowly, almost imperceptibly. It's like hair growing -- we watch the election every day, every minute, so we don't see the slow evolution of the campaign. But tune out for a couple months and come back -- I bet it will be a shock. Obama and his VP will be hitting on all cylinders, pouring money into commercials, with shitloads of new voters registered. Like seeing someone you haven't seen in a long time, who decided to grow their hair out -- it's a total change. But those living with that person didn't notice the drastic change from day to day.

This is a marathon, not a sprint. If McCain wants to tire himself out now, to get all his vitriol out now, to spend all his money now, to spend all his capital now, fine. I have faith that Obama's campaign knows what it's doing. I don't want him putting in his closer right now. Stay with your starter, then hit middle relief, then shut it down with your closer.

I don't sell all the mutual funds in my IRA after one bad day or one bad week, and I don't want Obama to sell HIS portfolio out after a (supposed) bad day or week. We are no more qualified to run a campaign than we are to manage a mutual fund (except for you portfolio managers out there :) ) or the New York Yankees.

Take a valium, pour a drink, chill out, and go register some new voters. Leave the rest to the experts.