The World We Live In
I was an early member of the Post-Autistic movement, the first in Texas, I like to say. A history of it can be found here.
My first appearance in the review was a reply to Bob Solow, who had written a subtle non-defense of economic orthodoxy. That was in 2001.
A year later, I found myself pleading with the PAE crowd, "Can we please move on?" I think we know what the sins of the economists have been. Our task is to do something about it. Endless critique is an exercise in futility, and readers of The Predator State will discover that I don't do more of that than necessary. The early chapters deal, as harshly as possible, with the notion that the "market is freedom," with monetarism, with tax-cut economics, with budget-balancing and with the strange notion that there exists, or could exist, something called free trade.
After that, I move on.
The middle of the book tries to define the type of economy in which we actually live. This has been, for 75 years, dominated and defined by government, by institutions built in the New Deal and the Great Society and damaged but not dismantled since then. Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the public universities and government-sponsored research and the armed forces are not add-ons to the American economy. They are, to a very large degree, what our economy is. They are why our middle class exists.
(And, for that matter, why our elderly exist. One can make a very good case that the enormous increase in life expectancy since the 1930s is due to the existence of Social Security and Medicare. This is truly basic economics: pay people to live longer, and they take you up on it.)
Here's a challenge for progressives. Try not to overstate how much damage the years from 1980 to 2000 actually did. In point of fact, Reagan did not control Congress after 1982. People forget: in that mid-term election the Republicans lost 26 House seats and Tip O'Neill emerged as a power who could not be ignored. Why? Because the Democrats waged a relentless campaign against the Reagan recession and against tampering with Social Security. (I was there, as Executive Director of the Joint Economic Committee at the time.)
Up to 2000, we still lived in a society defined by the New Deal and Great Society. That is much less true today, because of the rise of the predator state. But predation against those institutions is only possible, because the institutions exist. Without Fannie and Freddie there would have been no secondary mortgage market for the sub-prime operators to screw up.
In this middle section, I try to take down one of the most serious shibboleths of our time: the idea that the United States is a radically unequal country even today - and that we owe our supposed economic dynamism to that tolerance for inequality. We're not. And we don't. What has happened is an enormous increase in capital asset valuations, affecting the taxable incomes of a tiny number of people. This is inequality, to be sure, but it's inequality that very few Americans actually see first-hand.
Fun facts: (1) if you take out just fifteen counties (most of them the obvious info-tech centers in California, Washington and elsewhere, plus Manhattan) the entire increase in between-county income inequality in the US in the late 1990s disappears. That's not all of the increase in inequality, but it's a lot of it. (2) You can explain almost all of the rise of income inequality in the US going back to the early 1970s by the fluctuations of the NASDAQ. (Corollary: there is really no need to measure income inequality anymore. Much cheaper, just to look it up in the morning paper.) (3) In the Bush period, the info-tech bubble deflated, and only one place in the country saw exceptional increases in relative income. Where was that? The counties immediately surrounding Washington DC. This was the Beltway Bubble. (Never in the history of the republic did a Republican administration do so much for the housing wealth of a nest of Democrats.)
Take out those incomes at the very top, and you don't find that we became more unequal as we moved toward full employment in the late 1990s. On the contrary: Working America became more egalitarian, as it became more efficient and more fully employed. Why? It's really very simple: as the economy heats up, people at the bottom of the pay scale work more hours, earn overtime, and so forth. Their incomes rise more rapidly than those of better-paid salaried workers, and inequality declines.
The underlying economic moral: equality is efficient. There is no trade-off between egalitarian wage structures and full employment (neither here nor in Europe, incidentally, where the tradeoff fallacy is policy gospel.)
Next topic: Corporate Governance. Because the inequality problem that we do have is concentrated in a tiny elite, one is tempted to ask, why should we care? The reason, in my view, is not one of morality or abstract fairness. It is, rather, the corrupting influence of excessive pay on corporate leadership in this country.
Here the story begins with the world of my father's 1967 book, The New Industrial State, which I was able to bring back into print, courtesy of Sean Wilentz and Princeton University Press, in 2007. That book told of an economy dominated by large, fairly stable organizations, themselves dominated by their "technostructure." Obviously we no longer live in that world. Why not?
I identify four factors: (1) the challenge from overseas, especially Japan, in the 1970s, which was in part handled by negotiated surrender in the Reagan years; (2) the Volcker-monetarist bust, which destroyed much of the manufacturing base, needlessly in my view; (3) the migration of technologists to their own firms, whose valuations on the NASDAQ quickly put them at the top of the income structure, and (4) the corrosive effect of excessive CEO pay on governance of the firm. Again, Veblen's concept of predation is relevant here. But so is William K. Black's important new concept of control fraud. What is control fraud? Fraud committed by those in control. Black was the note-taker and whistle-blower in the Keating Five matter and he knows as much about this as anyone on the planet.
The rise of the predator state emerges from the capture of government by predatory corporations and their agents. Think Enron. Think Phil Gramm. (Who I notice is back in the McCain inner circle after an exile of what, one week?) Enough said already on that topic.
Let me post this now, and come back for one more entry describing what, in my view, should be done. Stay tuned.

















There seems to be disagreement on what constitutes inequality. Does one measure income or wealth? Does one include deferred wealth (such as expected retirement income)? How about the large increase in debt that people have taken on, is this subtracted from wealth?
Look at all those whose retirement plans have been downgraded over the past several decades. (Delphi Corp is in the news just today).
Elizabeth Warren, for example, argues that the things that people need like home, health care, education and transportation have increased in cost, and now constitute a greater percentage of family spending, while the things that big business like to discuss, like imported manufactured goods have gone down.
She gave a nice lecture on the change in circumstance which you can view here:
YouTube - The Coming Collapse of the Middle Class
Perhaps the number of people at the top of the pyramid is small, but they wield a disproportionate amount of power. This shows up not only in the large number of conservative think tanks and university departments they underwrite, but in their ownership and control of major media outlets. This sets the tone for debate and those outside of a narrow range of opinions are just not heard.
Finally, add in the influence of big money on elections and you can see why there isn't much difference between the policies of the two parties.
If there are proposals to restore a functional democracy to the US I haven't heard them so far.
August 15, 2008 1:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Agreed.
"Wealth, as Mr. Hobbes says, is power."
That's the only short line in the entire Wealth of Nations. Also one of the best.
However, much of the drivel written on inequality leading to efficiency is just about wages, and the distribution of wages is relatively easy to measure.
JG
August 15, 2008 3:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's the only short line in the entire Wealth of Nations. Also one of the best.
Well Mr. Smith was not a careful reader of Hobbes in my opinion.
Perhaps money is power in some sense, but I dare say that Hobbes being a thoroughgoing materialist who was quite knowledgeable of Newton's mechanics was aware that physical power ( and what other power is there?) is expressed as work over time (W/t) and hence money is power only in a very derivative sense.
Hobbes had first to subdue Man’s will in a State of Nature before there is any talk of money.
Or to put it is Maoist terms: real power comes out of the barrel of the gun
It all depends on the social arrangements we acquiesce to that determines how money becomes a source of power. It also determines what restrictions are imposed on the use and distribution of money.
I know that sounds so academic you will say and yawn, but the fact is that it will take physical power in the form of physical action to redress grossly unequal distributions of wealth.
Whether it is by casting a vote, going on strike, or something else, it is action that gets things done.
August 15, 2008 6:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
rdf says;
And that's the rub, isn't it, disproportionate representation in Government.
Of course the right's argument would be for everyone to get rich and the problem of disproportionate representation will be solved.
August 15, 2008 3:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
When you get a free moment, Professor Galbraith, could you provide a few links to the economics papers written before the current "credit crisis" which forecast the immediate and subsequent:
1) TED spreads;
2) Interest premia for the several classes of RMBS;
3) Market discounts of CDOs and CDO^s;
4) Amounts/percentages of SIVs to be brought back on balance sheets;
5) Extent of counterparty failure in the derivatives market;
6) And most importantly, the overall extent of "debt destruction" and its real (how 'bout a number) effect on the capital of the "banks" and thus, their ability to intermediate "money."
It would, also, be nice to see the per cent of economists who agreed with the papers you cite.
Note: Not being an economist (I only know what I read in the papers) I am confident there are many other facts which a competent economist would have explained -- and quantified -- which I am unaware of. Please don't treat my list, above, as exhaustive.
August 15, 2008 1:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Christ Ellen, if I were Mr. Galbraith I'd send you a bill for that stuff.
Why not sign up for one of his classes? :-)
August 15, 2008 3:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
They're full, alas, for this semester. JG
August 15, 2008 4:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't talk to me. Talk to Krugman.
He agrees that he himself, Jamie, and the rest of these worthless economists didn't describe the impending credit crisis in any useful, practical, or quantitative terms.*
Attending Prof. Galbraith's class would be as much a waste of time as would be rereading economists' sorry forecasts.
* Of course you won't see them taking any responsibility -- "Who could have known?" Who else if not you economists -- you morons!
August 17, 2008 11:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Robert Mundell, with whom I agree rarely, once said,
"Never take an unweighted sample of economists' opinion."
That said, the calculations I report from UTIP's work have not been challenged, and in many cases they've passed through referees to publication in reputable journals. That's true for the "Beltway Bubble" article, which appeared in a mainstream Berkeley electronic publication, "The Economist's Voice."
Our methods are conventional, based on theoretical work by a Chicago (!) economist (Henri Theil) and standard data sources.
JG
August 15, 2008 4:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
. . . standard data sources . . . .
It's the old story.
"What are you looking for," the cop asks the drunk.
"My keys."
"Where'd you lose them?"
"Up at the other end of the block."
"So, what the hell ya looking for 'em down here for?"
"'Cause," the drunk says straightening up and looking pointedly up at the lamp post over his head, "there ain't no light up that end."
One economist to another: "Always blame the data. It's guaranteed to be incomplete, inaccurate, or irrelevant."
August 15, 2008 8:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wow. What Macro 101 class leaves out of the equation is - most of the economy. The reviled 'planned' economy of the Pentagon.
I wonder if a reform of economics would emphasise a kind of reportage and fact finding - maybe it needs to be more like history and less like a 'science.'
My chief worry lately has been the disturbing rise of a patronage class of 'conservatives' who get all their money from taxpayers. From the mercenaries in Iraq to those health providers who are now raking in medicare dollars.
How do you stop these people?
Ivan the terrible just had all the Plutocrats murdered - easy.
To bad we can't do that with the Richard Melon Scaifes of the contemporary US.
I look forward with enthusiasm to your recommendations - and now I'm going to have to go out and buy Predator State, along with New Industrial State, to put alongside by JKG bio.
August 15, 2008 2:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Exactly my point, it is time to move on. In fact it's past time to move on. But that means, among other things, changing what we (economists) teach and how we teach it. If we want people in graduate programs who care about the world, then business as usual in economics won't cut it. But how to get a critical mass of economists doing something else ... I haven't a clue.
August 15, 2008 2:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think I've heard that somewhere before.
We have indeed at the moment little cause for pride: as a profession we have made a mess of things. Friedrich August von Hayek Nobel * Prize Lecture (1974)
* Well actually, the Swedish Central Bank's prize.
August 15, 2008 9:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Economics;
Paul Krugman teaching Economics at Princeton.
Phil Gramm/Dick Armey teaching Economics at U of Texas.
Where is reality?
August 15, 2008 3:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
By the way, to defend the honor of my home university, Phil Gramm never taught for us. He was at A&M. And Armey was at the University of North Texas, I believe. JG
August 15, 2008 4:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
James,
I actually didn't know what school they taught at so I just threw U of T in there.
August 15, 2008 8:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
On that note, I link to my review of .
JG
August 15, 2008 4:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Something went wrong. I meant to say: "my review of Gramm's Ph.D. dissertation." But click the period, the link is there. JG
August 15, 2008 4:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks, professor, for sticking on the Gramm case. I keep thinking this should be a bigger issue than it has been.
For this issue to take off, though, it has to move from the academic to the visceral. In other words it has to hit the people who are the prey of the Preator State and critiques of their dissertations won't cut that mustard. And even though Wendy is evidently the more proficient economist of the two, wasn't she the one who actually sat on the board of Enron and vouched for all their nefarious schemes?
The point needs to get out there that McCain wants to put in charge of the economy the very people who vouched for and enabled the Enron criminals.
August 15, 2008 5:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
And Clinton put in charge the "very people who vouched for an enabled the [S&L] criminals" -- namely, Alan Greenspan who wrote glowingly of Charles Keating's S&L and business model shortly before it all came down around everyone's ears and Keating was sent to the hoosegow.
"[In 1984] Ed Gray, who was the Federal Home Loan Bank board chairman, . . . received a letter from respected economist Alan Greenspan telling him he should stop worrying so much. Greenspan wrote that deregulation was working just as planned, and he named 17 thrifts that had reported record profits and were prospering under the new rules. Greenspan wrote the letter while he was a paid consultant for Lincoln Savings & Loan of Irvine, CA, owned by a Charles Keating, Jr., company. Four years after Greenspan wrote the letter to Gray, 15 of the 17 thrifts he'd cited would be out of business and would cost the FSLIC $3 billion in losses." Inside Job by Steven Pizzo via Fleckenstein
So, Clinton knew Greenspan was anti-financial regulation (and ethically challenged) and reappointed him -- twice.
August 15, 2008 8:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Clinton disappointed me in many ways. I expected at least some rollback of Reaganomics. Other than the first year tax increase, we got nada, and that paled before NAFTA.
This is but another example. But thanks for the details, Ellen.
August 15, 2008 11:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Clinton was a member of the Republican lite DLC from which we Liberals get trickle down government; on the other hand, we get trickle down economics from the Republicans.
August 16, 2008 11:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
New? To my personal knowedge companies for which I worked.......................
o in multiple cases, despite projected losses on construction contracts reported profits on interim performance until, at completion, they were forced not only to recognize that long projected loss but also tp make an additional charge to earnings to reverse the earlier "profits".
o bribed foreign governments
o fixed prices (at lunch)
o systematically took the money spend on expenses
(say sweeping the floor) and instead of subtracting those amounts from that month's income, added them to capital expenditures.( One wonders how much of this country's vaunted "investment" is similarly false.)
I also worked for honest companies. They were in the minority
August 17, 2008 8:45 PM | Reply | Permalink