Here we go again.

MJ - have some faith in your man! And he is your man. Have at least enough faith that when the guy takes a family vacation - correction - has the cojones to take a family vacation in the midst of the campaign - he just might know what he is doing.

Last week we were talking about Obama fatigue. So maybe it was a good thing for him to get out of the public eye a bit?

While I am not as sold on the policies of Obama as you are, I am more sold on the political skills of the man than you are. It is likely he'll come roaring back next week.

In the meantime - sure - take none of the polls for granted. But enough with the hand-wringing.

Why? What evidence is there for optimism?

As for the polls, since 1948 the polls have come very close to predicting every single Presidential election. It is, in fact, they are the only tools we have.

We can only handwring. It's up to the campaign to neck wring.

Right. Check writing is critical. Absolutely.

...the media (pretty much all Democratic except for Fox)...

Where on earth did you get that idea??

The mainstream media has a corporate bias, and, as such, leans pretty strongly toward the Republicans, not the Democrats.

I think maybe you've been listening too much to the right wing radio talking points. Might I suggest an excellent book by Eric Alterman, "What Liberal Media? The Truth about Bias and the News".

(I'm sorry, I haven't even read the rest of your post yet. I couldn't get past that WHOPPER right at the beginning.)

-- ARG

What is going on with the Obama campaign? It seems like they are just sitting around letting the McCain people clean their clock. I was under the impression that Obama had promised that this would not happen again as it did with Gore and Kerry. Are these guys really that out of touch with what appears to be going on? I'm open to the notion that they do have a lot of stuff under their belts, just waiting to get it out there, but right now that's a kind of "hope" I'm not interested in. I want to see some points up on the board.

Yeah I'm worried...worried BIG time.

Very bad month for Obama right now. He is letting McBush and the R's define him. I watch McSame's Senate friends out there attacking Obama and I am hard pressed to see any of Obama's senate friends doing the same for him with McLame. I have noticed tepid or very delayed responses to attacks on Obama from him and his campaign. I am hearing about the Clintonistas planning to set up shop at the convention with their 'Nobama' signs...not pro-Hillary signs but anti-Obama. With friends like that who needs enemies. I remember John Kerry having a double digit lead at the same point in his 2004 campaign just to lose and see that right now Obama is in a dead heat.

All I know is that if Obama doesn't go on a major offensive he is gonna be left in the dust. They need to beat McCain over the head with his positions until blood comes out of his campaign's ears. No more of 'staying above the fray'. This is a back alley no holds barred fight using weapons and not some kind of gentlemanly boxing match adhering to Marquis of Queensbury rules. All the momentum and good work Obama did on his overseas trip has been wasted as his opponent went negative. Maybe the convention and debates will turn it around but then again I wouldn't count on the debates seeing all the flag pin and Pledge of Allegiance questions he had to endure from the press in the Democratic debates. Don't expect the press to be fair. And even if he pulled out to a big lead I think they want a close race so people watch their election coverage. How many times do you think questions about Rev. Wright and what religion he really is are asked?

I am getting that deja vu all over again feeling and I don't want to relive those moments. Yeah I am worried...worried BIG time.

I think what's really going on here is that at some fundamental level the Dems and the GOP are not really even having the same election. I really believe that the Dems are issue oriented and the GOP is power oriented and could give a rat's ass about issues.

Because issues require some level of logical consistency and power doesn't, the Dems are at a disadvantage because there are some things they can't do or say and maintain that consistency. The GOP, on the other hand, can say just whatever the hell else they want since they don't require any consistency to get on or stay on top.

You doom and gloomers need to get a life.

Here, you want some red meat?

Stuff is happening. It isn't all doom and gloom. Yes, Obama may lose, but none of us really knows for sure. Of COURSE we need to do all we can to see that he wins.

But "doing all we can" also includes refraining from making statements like "If I had to bet the house right now, I'd put my money on McCain" - especially if you're a prominent Obama supporter. If you can't avoid thinking it, at least avoid feeling like you have to spread it. How is that helping anything?

I'm not saying don't criticize Obama if you disagree with him on something. I am saying, please resist the impulse to sharing YOUR angst with the world. That isn't about Obama - it's about YOU.

Suppose your worst-case scenarios come to pass and Obama loses? Then you get to say "I told you so." Big frickin deal.

Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will.

I think of you as prominent. More prominent than me anyway.

Thanks for taking my criticism in the spirit with which it was given.

So when we win by getting around 350 electoral votes will you make sure you make a post saying you will be more optomistic next time?

On this point I agree with Mr. Rosenberg. obama cannot win with just 35% of the non-Hispanic white male vote. Hopefully the election day numbers will be higher.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109456/Gender-Gap-Among-White-Voters-Bigger-Now-Than-2004.aspx

Just hold tight until the debates. Just imagine Obama and McCain on the stage together....

Game over. O wins.

Enough hand-wringing already. Why must Democrats always do this? Writing lengthy articles telling other Obama supporters that it's a lost cause and racism will ultimately win the day is NOT productive.

Of course we need to be ready for dirty tricks - but that surprises no one. After the last two elections, it's obvious that disenfranchisement will be as rampant as the Republicans can get away with. That said, there are also unprecedented efforts to register, turn out, and protect the rights of voters. If you're unaware of those efforts, already ongoing, being made by both the campaign and many outside groups, that's just your lack of awareness helping out your pessimism.

What DOES help is to donate, make phone calls, help register people to vote, and etc. Obama's campaign right now is actually, despite constant Democratic worry-warting to the contrary, doing well. His numbers in every region but the South are on the rise. McCain's highest Gallup ratings over the past three months are Obama's lowest.

Further, have you actually ever lived in the South? As someone who spent years in Georgia, I think this kind of assumption about whites in general is just plain silly. It's more silly when it comes to Western and Midwestern states, but even in the South it's not going to be racism that beats Obama.

I agree with MJ: It's all over save for the rending of garments and gnashing of teeth. Between Obama's predilection for floating above the fray and, correspondingly, turning his Convention into a celebration of the Clintons, we don't stand a chance for a bump before November. When will the Democrats figure out that the only way to win this election is to paint McCain as the mean-spirited, lying, two-faced old fraud he is? Simply buying television ads that are indistinguishable from oil company public service announcements just won't do it. The Republicans are going to try to disembowel Obama. The only response is to attack, attack, attack, and I don't think Obama is prepared to do that.

This is the deal: white American voters are not instantly inclined to see a Black male as an advocate of their interests and defender of their families and communities.

This is not exactly racism. It's not based on an attitude that Obama lacks competence, etc. It is more like group-think, a kind of tribalism.

The problem is, that all working Americans need an advocate. We are suffering, have been suffering, are going (fairly rapidly) downhill. We need an advocate in Washington, DC.

I think Obama's reasonableness plays against his effectiveness as an advocate for working Americans. His calm, his balance, don't communicate that he will fight like a bulldog to improve economic security for working Americans. It critically undermines Obama's case to this group. I think that is the fundamental reason why he has failed to "close the deal" with this group of voters in primaries and polls. Voters believe, with reason, that without that fight quality in a leader who is defending their interests, their interests and needs and priorities will not get addressed. AFter all, that is the status quo.

In the absence of this advocacy, you have McCain's quality of 'fight like a bulldog' - against the wrong things (Iran, Russia). And you have McCain's whiteness, which in the trust area, inclines the white working class to give him the benefit of the doubt.

Frank Rich in today's NYTimes described Obama's campaign as 'overly genteel'. I think that's correct.

The way race is operating in this election is a bit new. It is about trust and not bias. This is what is not fair: McCain defaults to being more trusted by the white middle and working class voters (even when he would shaft those voters). Obama has to make the case.

There are two ways.

Obama has begun, in various ads, to show how McCain is a candidate who loves the elites and shafts working Americans. He is business as usual.

This is good, it may not be enough.

It is really important to TARGET the TRUST that the working class has for McCain. It can be destroyed. It has many vulnerabilities. He is an old timer and his record and character are there to be used against him. But this has to be a strategic task, done thoroughly and deliberately (through surrogates, in many cases).

If this is not something in Obama's character, if he is not capable of going negative in this way, I think he will lose.

It's possible the Obama campaign really sees our essential national problem as one of partisanship, and that explains his approach. But it is not partisanship: it is the rise of predatory elites and the decline of the middle and working classes. If this fundamental error of analysis is driving the Obama campaign, again, he will lose.

I have a lot of experience in the technology industry, and there are certain political attitudes in that world, among those leaning Dem. They are politically soft, suburban, well-meaning. They don't understand politics as war. I worry that he has too many of this type in his "genteel" campaign, and not enough South Side of Chicago (where I'm from) Democratic warriors.

I'm just happy to see that we are not going to use racism as an excuse if Obama doesn't win.