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Kaplan Makes Sense on Georgia

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Like many of you, I've been wracking my brain about what can be done about Russia's intervention in Georgia (and Georgia's prior intervention in South Ossetia), with no great answers. Perhaps a little humility is in order. Bearing this in mind, I was particularly struck by Fred Kaplan's piece in Slate, which begins by asserting that "It is impossible to think about the Russian assault on Georgia without feeling like a heartless bastard or a romantic fool." Even as it appears that Russia may be withdrawing (not confirmed as of this writing), Kaplan's analysis is worth reading for thinking about next steps.

In the short-term at least, count me in the "heartless bastard" camp -- not because I am indifferent to the suffering in Georgia and South Ossetia, but because there is little that can be done to back up the rhetoric of the Bush administration and its neo-conservative allies, like Dick Cheney's statement that "this aggression must not go unanswered." Kaplan rightly asks what that answer might be, given the lack of military options and the extreme unlikelihood of mustering support for sanctions on an oil- and gas-rich Russian state.

He then gets to the heart of the matter, questioning whether either Georgian or South Ossetian sovereignty are worth going to war over (which, in my view, they are not).

Kaplan goes on to make a few suggestions for the next president: 1) Don't make security commitments you can't keep -- they are only likely to spur the kind of miscalculations that Georgia made in going into South Ossetia in the first place; 2) Aggressive as he may be, Putin is not Hitler or Stalin, hellbent on global (or even regional) domination -- he is well along on a project of meddling with the "near abroad" (the former Soviet states on his border), but that's a different matter; 3) With little immediate leverage, Russia will need to be offered something to avoid a repeat of these last few days -- like for example, assurances that Georgia will not be admitted to NATO.

Kaplan also calls for a return to the kind of regular summits between Washington and Moscow that occurred during the Cold War -- back when both nations were involved in a nuclear standoff that, absent some level of common understanding, could have ended life as we know (or knew) it.

In short, we have to recognize that Russia is a nasty state that may well do things that Americans don't like in the coming period; but rather than pretending that we have the wherewithal to dictate their policies, we will need to build some sort of relationship that could head off the worst results of Russia's renewed ambitons along its borders.

Best of all, Kaplan suggests that in the long term "the best way to take Russia down a notch . . . is to pursue policies and fund technologies that slash the demand for oil."

Well said. And well worth reading, rather than just relying on my synopsis.


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Nice sober analysis. We are not going to do anything because we lack the ability short of risking nuclear war. But other than doing nothing I think it would be very helpful for our political discourse to have an open discussion on how the US under both Clinton and Bush has acted provocatively against Russia. If we can accept and admit part of the responsibility for this crises then it will be much easier to re-establish a sane diplomatic and peaceful relationship with Russia. Steve Clemons over at Washington Note is having this discussion also.

He then gets to the heart of the matter, questioning whether either Georgian or South Ossetian sovereignty are worth going to war over (which, in my view, they are not).

Amen.

Thank you for this article, but to not simpathize with the Georgians does not make you a 'heartless bastard'. The comment line no one is bringing up is this being mostly about a civil war. South Ossetia has never accepted being part of 'Georgia' going back to when the country was a middle-age style protectorate of the Safavid Empire in the 16th Century. Russia is simply cloaking their own interests with the pleas of the South Ossetians to save them from the Georgian Nationalists the Ossettians always struggled against.

The closest thing to this encounter in the current American context is the northern quasi-independent state for the Kurds in Iraq. Bush tried to partially justify the invasion of Iraq for actions taken by Saddam Hussein's regime to suppress the Kurds and bring them in line with his own authority. The Kurds screamed for help and the US answered by invasion and 'regime change'.

I think Russia is acting in their own purely nationalistic interests, as nations do every day. To look at this as a struggle of the West or Democracy vs. Russian Autocracy misses the history and reality on the ground. While I don't like Russia's overreaching into Georgia proper, if the US was being threatened by one of our neighbors, we'd stomp them into a bloody mass and install our own friends as rulers.

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Hate to say it but there's a really practical reason why Georgia can't be admitted into NATO: NATO can't defend Georgia. It's that simple. A treaty pledging mutual defense only works if everyone in the treaty can reasonably be expected to do something for the other treaty members. France really can help Spain defend itself, if need be. We really can help France. But we can't do much for Georgia. I mean, what if we entered into a mutual defense agreement with Tibet? Would we send in troops to kick China out?

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You bring up a basic truth. Here is one to consider: Estonia has been granted Nato membership. They also have a significant Russian minority living there. What happens if some fool Estonian president (not a problem today, the current one seems rational) decides to solve his Russian minority problem once and for all through ethnic cleansing.

Do you think Nato would risk a major war supporting Estonia against any Russian attack? Check out a map to get a sense of the logistical problems.

Strange hypothetical. I'm not sure NATO would rush to support ethnic cleansing by any of its members...

Yet Georgia, who has certainly been guilty of ethnic cleansing in recent past, seems to expect NATO to make some air strikes against the Russians.

Have Bush and McCain been telling them something we ought to know about?

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NATO backed Croatia in 1996 when they ethnically cleansed out about 100,000 Serbs from the province of Krajina. The number of Serbs in Kosovo decreased by half after Serbian defeat in 1999 -- this was done by gangs of Albanians under the nose of NATO troops. It is not a strange hypothetical.

You're on the right track. It's practical, no? It seems like overstretch. Now, imagine, for a moment, that you are Russia. Ukraine in NATO, Georgia in NATO, Iraq with permanent US bases, Israel with nukes, India with nukes... and now Iran blockaded.


http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=9799

This is an interesting article about McCain's stance on Georgia.

It was written by Mark Kleiman at:
http://www.samefacts.com/

" "Did "Misha" ask for McCain's advice before making his disastrous gamble? Did McCain warn his "good friend" that if the Russian tanks rolled Georgia was going to be on its own? If McCain was so prescient about the evil nature of the Russian empire, shouldn't he have expected the invasion? Did he tell "Misha" about the importance of closing the tunnel? Did he talk to the President or the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs or the Director of National Intelligence and ask for active satellite monitoring of the Russian side of the tunnel?

Georgia may have been justified in its attempt to retake control of South Ossetia, but Misha and his American advisers forgot Napoleon's first military maxim: "If you start out to take Vienna, take Vienna."

If a new Cold War is really starting — not likely, but not impossible — our side just lost the first battle, and John McCain and his adviser Randy Scheunemann were right there, giving bad advice. Is this man qualified to be President? Does he pass the Commander-in-Chief test?" "

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France can defend Spain? Surely, you jest.

NATO is superfluous. Spanish prime minister at least posed for a photo together with Bush and Blair, but what they need to be defended from? Morocco? Iran? Russia? Unruly Brits getting drunk and disorderly?

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Spain may need some help in defending itself from the demands for independence for Catalonia not to mention the Basque country. The Kosovo precedence definitely applies to those two current Spanish provinces. And then there is Scotland, I am sure the French would be more than happy to help the British put down that rebellion.

BTW, what would we call Great Britain if it lost Scotland? Lessor Britain maybe.

1) Don't make security commitments you can't keep -

This of course is just another in a long line of Bush failures. Just like daddy Bush did in Iraq, after Desert Storm. Then statements out of the White House supported uprisings by the Kurds and the Shiites and when they happened, the Kurds and the Shiites expected American support would soon be coming. It never happened and Saddam remained in power, continuing to kill of the Kurds and the Shiites. All this with the blessing of then Secretary of Defense, Dick Cheney. Yet that same idiot, concluded that during the 2003 invasion, "We will, in fact, be greeted as liberators."

Based on this experience alone, it's not hard to imagine how the Georgians will feel about America for the next couple of generations.

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Just what the average Georgian wants -- Grozny or Fallujah.

Ninety-five per cent of all Georgians have been down on their knees for days praying we mind our own business.

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The sad realty of Georgia not being worth a global conflict is just that.... a sad reality. And by global I mean Russia and the USA, since we are on opposite sides of the globe - and just like in WWI, the dominoes will fall on either side. And by fall, I mean the other nations will become cannon fodder.

But this is not a sad reality I want any part of. We politicized animals love to jump on our high horses and shout to the rooftops about all the things we should do as freedom-loving, conscious-driven, democratic Americans.

But it's all a croc, innit? Our first priority is to re-prioritize - get the hell out of Iraq and get the hell into Darfur, into Russia's face, and into the Pakistani caves and wherever else we need to get to to find the bastard bin Laden.

In other words, pick fights that demonstrate our freedom-loving, conscious-driven Democratic ideals, and walk away from the ones that are about power and power alone. Like Iraq.

Putin and Melevdev be damned. And we should be damned as well is all we offer is rhetoric.

If the headlines had been "Iran pre-emptively nukes Israel" I'm sure your response would have been


In the short-term at least, count me in the "heartless bastard" camp -- not because I am indifferent to the suffering in Israel, but because there is little that can be done to back up the rhetoric of the Bush administration and its neo-conservative allies, like Dick Cheney's statement that "this aggression must not go unanswered." Kaplan rightly asks what that answer might be, given the lack of military options and the extreme unlikelihood of mustering support for sanctions on an oil- and gas-rich Iranian state.
He then gets to the heart of the matter, questioning whether Israeli sovereignty is worth going to war over (which, in my view, they are not).

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OTY, I think it's clear that we can and will defend Israel against such an attack and that most people in the US on both the right and left would support it. Heck, I think people on the left would support withdrawing forces from Iraq in order to defend Israel than people on the left would.

The Russia/Georgia situation is truly more complex than a hypothetical about Iran attacking Israel. If Iran attacks Israel, Iran is surely wrong. In this case we have disputed territory and Georgia trying to take it and Russia bullying Georgia around and our own bravado to blame for our looking stupid because we can't do anything.

Were Iran to attack Israel our response would be decisive, predictable and mostly supported by our populace.

@ destor23


I don't equate national interest with right and wrong. They overlap, but they're very far from the same thing.


We won't come to the defense of Georgia because it would be far, far too costly given what we get from them.


Who would we defend? Unquestionably, Latin America and the Monroe doctrine. Western Europe, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand. Almost certainly, much of Eastern Europe; Poland, The Czechs and Slovaks, several others. Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States.


Singapore and Taiwan? I don't know but probably, depending on the circumstances.


But Israel? On every Israel thread - and I've followed most of them - there are posters who INSIST that their fight is not our fight, that they have no willingness or intention of going to war to defend them. From which I conclude that, to the extent the left has power, we will NOT defend Israel and will certainly not attempt to exact revenge after a serious nuclear attack by Iran.


However, we would certainly NOT permit Iran to dominate the oil states of the Middle East so it is difficult to predict exactly what we would do.

No point discussing it, as Israel can defend itself just fine, and wouldn't need much help from us. US politicians have to posture and talk about defending Israel to the death, but honestly they can kick the shit out of Iran without our help, should the need arise.

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offensivetoyou reading minds again;

If the headlines had been "Iran pre-emptively nukes Israel" I'm sure your response would have been...

Why are you introducing this irrelevant hypothetical into Hartung's Russia/Georgia column here?


He then gets to the heart of the matter, questioning whether Israeli sovereignty is worth going to war over (which, in my view, they are not).

Who gets to the heart of the matter?

so when you gonna splain how mcsame is making sense ???

I didn't see a single reference to mcsame in the body of the post

so if this post is about what kaplan says, why is mcsame in the title

looks like you're gettin as goofy as mcsame

And yet, we somehow got through another day without nuclear war, and maybe the fighting has stopped, making the Russian invasion an incursion to punish the Georgian government and army. Apparently, Russia is not completely unrestrained by our threats and warnings. And we hear that some of our NATO allies are now talking about fast-tracking Georgia's entry into NATO and viewing Russia's attack on Georgia as a threat to themselves. Suppose it turns out that we neither went to war over Georgia nor watched helplessly while our little ally was crushed, but that we continued to engage the Russians as we engaged them throughout the Cold War, pursuing American interests in the Middle East without giving the Russians everything they want. Guarantee the Russians that Georgia will never be admitted to NATO? Maybe the next concession should be to kick Turkey out.

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What benefit would it be to NATO or the USA to have Georgia in NATO?

Maybe Russia is paranoid since the Nazi invasion and WWll and sees itself being backed into a corner as ex Warsaw Pact nations join NATO or at least align themselves with the west. And as the US puts radar stations and missiles on the Russian border, or close to it.

Russia is looking at ex Warsaw Pact Countries;
Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia (Czech Republic and Slovakia), Hungary, Poland, Romania now in NATO.

Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovenia are also members of NATO. No more buffer zone for the Russian homeland.

If I were Russia I'd be paranoid too.

Interesting Kaplan admits being wrong on Iraq, called this one right.

His call to cut consumption of oil is correct.

He is starting to get what Woolsey has been saying for quite some time, I incidently joined Pickens Plan today.

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I'm a little peeved that our news media and even the folks here automatically accept that Russia is in the wrong in Georgia. I don't accept that. Georgia started this flap by sending in their armed forces to forcibly take back South Ossetia. Then things get pretty blurred. Either the Georgians began abusing the South Ossetians, if not killing them, or they acted like we would like to believe the US military would act, and not like the US military did act at Abu Ghraib.

So, in fact, we don't know how the Georgians acted in South Ossetia. Russia says they slaughtered civilians. Then, we know that the Russian military entered Georgia and "punished" them for the incursion. They also apparently dropped some bombs in Georgia. Something like we did in Kosovo or Iraq.

What say we remain neutral in Georgia?

Amen.


Again, think "proxy war." Also, think "nuclear warships blockading Iran."

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Bush will eventually restart the cold war. Then we can concern ourselves with Iraq, Afghanistan, and the old Warsaw Pact Nations and a resurgent Russia. A President McCain might bomb them all.

Bush looked into Putin's eyes and saw his soul, heh heh heh, I wonder if he saw the invasion of Georgia.

I don't automatically accept that Russia is singularly wrong or that Georgia is singularly wrong here. they're both wrong, and I couldn't care about it, except for the fact that our own presnit is also in the wrong here

and john mcsame wants to campaign for presnit by commenting on the situation and planting propaganda talking points for one side, and basically acting like a dickwad fool

there ain't many options in this war that are good for America, and neither candidate has a grasp of any of our few good options

but Barack Obama gets extra points for not fucking the situation up MORE

mcsame gets marked down for violating the "don't fuck the situation up more" rule

and if kaplan and woolsey finally got one right, con't be too impressed

even a blind squirrel finds the occasional acorn

kaplan and woolsey are only sniffing distance from reality, at best

in case this goes awry, this is in response to hoppycalif2

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Great observations Hoppy.

We aren't exactly sure what transpired to start this incursion. The Russians are assumed to be the aggressor, I think, because of their size and military superiority as compared to Georgia. But assumptions are dangerous to make.

I think we stay neutral and help to mediate a non-violent solution...although Sarzoky and France seem to take the mantle of world leader from us during this crisis. Which I think is an indication of how our world standing has suffered terribly, vis-a-vis erosion of our 'soft power' so we can no longer 'lead' on the world stage, during the Bush Administration.


As far as Georgia being accepted into NATO...I think that is up to Georgia and NATO to decide. Now is probably not the best time to pursue this issue though. Let things cool and try to include that as part of some comprehensive negotiations to try to settle the dispute as best as possible.

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Of course if there isn't a Georgia around when it's time to make the decision . . . .

Well, I'm sure you get my meaning.

Your friend,

Vlady

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We are members of NATO, so we do have a say in whether or not any of the border nations around Russia can join. But, if Bush had gotten his way with NATO, Georgia would already be a NATO member, and we would be in a state of war against Russia right now. If this fiasco in Georgia gets repeated in Estonia, Lithuania or Latvia, who are NATO members now, we are then in a state of war with Russia.

Being at war with Russia is not a good goal for a sane foreign policy. Just because McCain gets orgasms by dreaming of war, doesn't mean our foreign policy should have that as an goal.

And, much more important, perhaps, NATO is aimed entirely at Russia, and always has been, since that was the reason for starting it. It is long past time to put NATO to sleep with the fishes.

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The Union General William Tecumseh Sherman had a few choice comments to make about those southern people from Georgia who thought war sounded like a really swell idea until things started going badly:

"We can not change the hearts of these people of the South, but we can make war so terrible, and make them so sick of war, that generations will pass away before they appeal to it again.”

"You cannot qualify war in harsher terms than I will. War is cruelty, and you cannot refine it..."

"You have heretofore read public sentiment in your newspapers, that live by falsehood and excitement; and the quicker you seek for truth in other quarters, the better."

"You people of the South don't know what you are doing. This country will be drenched in blood, and God only knows how it will end. It is all folly, madness, a crime against civilization! You people speak so lightly of war; you don't know what you're talking about. War is a terrible thing! ... You are rushing into war with one of the most powerful, ingeniously mechanical and determined people on earth — right at your doors!"

I'd say that Vladimir Putin undertands American Civil War history -- not to mention the so-called "Powell Doctrine" on when, how, and for how long to wage war for limited political objectives -- much better than the self-styled American southerner Deputy Dubya Bush and his swell American-educated buddy Mikheil "Shaky Willie" Saakashvili. And the American people who blindly swallow our government's lame, transparent propaganda -- shamelessly shilled by the co-opted New York Times and Washington Post -- really ought to take Sherman's advice and find more reliable information elsewhere.

@ Michael Murry


The Civil War was fought to preserve the Union...a principle which puts Georgian attempts to regain its breakaway provinces and Russian suppression of breakaway Chechniya squarely in the right.


Contrary to your most fundamental beliefs every event in world history doesn't support the claim that your richer, smarter, and more powerful neighbors are evil.

We had no choice
Sounds great...until you think about how the Soviets treated their minorities and satellites, and, more recently, how Russia treated Chechniya.


Georgian villages burned and looted as Russian tanks advance
Regardless of the political rights and wrongs, this is wrong.


The Caucasus, and most of the old world, is filled with small ethnic groups living closely. They can't all be nations. Even in former times, before the Industrial Revolution, it was impossible.

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Putin's a thug. He was my "neighbor" for 5 years. Not the most rational of arguments, I know. But, still.....

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I usually suggest "follow the money". What are these two countries fighting about? The US and Russia want to frame this as being about ethnic cleansing, but when did anyone ever really care about that?

The current situation in Darfur and the prior ones in Rwanda and elsewhere show that the west is pretty good at ignoring things when it is only people's lives that are at stake.

So what are the US and Russia really fighting over (Georgia is the US proxy this time)?

According to one analyst on the BBC yesterday the answer is natural gas. He claims that there is much natural gas to the east of Georgia w