Sorting and Consensus

My thanks to Bill, TPM, and all the book club contributors and readers this week. This weekend, share a copy of Bill's book with your favorite political opponent. It's readable, funny, and enlightening, and you will feel smarter, not angrier.
Bill's last post is a great summary. You can make a strong case that sorting has coincided with much growing inability to resolve conflict in the political culture.
Does it follow that consensus, especially a national consensus, has become harder to achieve because of sorting? I'm not yet convinced. Consensus is hard to achieve, with or without sorting. Here are three problems I would need to address, before I would argue that sorting is one of the causes.
* Sorting is an artifact of prosperity and greater choice. You may dislike the uneven distribution of these things, or the resource demands they impose. But it's reasonable to think that if the country were poorer, sorting wouldn't be as great, and if that's true, I doubt most people want that trade-off. Suppose sorting were somehow constrained, by economics or anything else. Are the prospects for national consensus enhanced? I don't see it.
Here's one test: in college campuses, are the physically proximate communities on the left and the right successfully persuading each other and synthesizing their ideas? My observation has been: not so much.
* Sorting is not motivated by political preference, even if the political consequences are serious. Both Walker and Rich touched on this point, but I would take it a step further.
Unless there is a network to support them, or unless the stakes are visible and significant, most people aren't going to risk their important personal relationships or disrupt the arc of their lives for the sake of political expression or participation. In my experience, anyway. The price that most people are willing to pay to publicize their political identity or to spice up political discourse is not very high.
* Does a political culture with more deliberation, and more ideologically diverse personal networks, really set the table for more consensus? You can find reasons to be suspicious. Read the examples in Bill's book that describe experiments where deliberation can actually harden and polarize individual opinions. Diana Mutz's Hearing the Other Side provides some detailed and sobering evidence about how deliberation can inhibit political participation and vice versa.
In the end, I think of sorting is a process and an outcome we should learn to measure and learn to manage.
Is there anything to be done? As I wrote in the first post, if you are serious about strategies to persuade your most distant ideological opponents, warm up to the task with Chapter 7 in The Big Sort.
Two final comments:
1. Isn't sorting at the local level different from sorting between states or regions? I think we need to be clear about which levels of aggregation matter, and why. Colorado (yet another great example from the book) illustrates this. You may know that Colorado is a competitive state this year in the Presidential race, and has elected both Democrats and Republicans at the statewide level recently. But Colorado is also the home of Ward Churchill and James Dobson, both reasonably insulated within Boulder and Colorado Springs respectively.
So, is Colorado homogeneous or heterogeneous? I think the answer depends on the way you decide to aggregate.
2. A quick, inadequate, take on the question: why would we think sorting is a new problem in relation to the country's entire history? Here's the take: the metrics of political sorting these days may be consistent with the historical norm, and the decades after World War II may be unusual. This claim was part of a critique of Bill's and Bob Cushing's original work on the subject by political scientist Philip Klinkner.
But is any comparison between the present and the years before World War II really meaningful? Think about the advance of communication networks, the rise of foreign policy on the national agenda, the integration of the economy, and the doubling of the country's population since the 1930's. To my thinking, the rise in sorting in recent decades is more important and more revealing than it's possible reversion to an old historical norm.















Sorting isn't a new problem, it's as old as the first ship that brought Europeans to this continent. If we're polarized, it's less than it was in 1861 and certainly less than it was even eight years ago, because if the polls tell us anything it's that this war, this president and this economy is despised by the vast majority of people in this country.
I enjoyed the book but don't think that evidence is ever produced that would support Bishop's claim.
July 25, 2008 2:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
There's definitely a growing consensus about Bush's incompetence at work these days!
July 25, 2008 2:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
I know what you mean, but I am now thinking that this is the most competent administration we've ever had - they set out to destroy the "welfare" nation (and by welfare I mean the ability for the state to look out for all people, not just one class) and generally wreak havoc on the world.
July 25, 2008 3:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think you're right: sorting isn't new. But the context is new. It was supposed to go away, and it didn't.
This comment reminds me: I just picked up a copy of Nixonland by Rick Perlstein, the subject of another TPM Book Club last May. Proudly purchased from Powell's, the planet's finest bookstore, in the planet's finest city.
Remember the consensus that reigned in the fall of 1964, described in the opening of Rick's book? Seems that consensus turned out to be a mile wide, and an inch deep.
Unhappiness with a really bad President, or even happiness with a successful one, doesn't feel like real consensus to me.
July 25, 2008 2:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
I wouldn't call it a consensus, either. I don't think consensus is something Americans do and when they do do it, they don't do it well. What Americans do well is compromise. None of this is my point, though.
I'm not sure that sorting was "supposed to go away", not even the founders ever considered that as a possibility, or even desirable - that's why we have an electoral college instead of direct election. I can think of only a few times in the history of this nation when we've had anything approaching a consensus and two of them were national elections - Washington's first term and Roosevelt's last term and that was merely a consensus as to who should assume power.
We're a stratified society and always have been and the only really important change in that is the emergence of a strong middle class for a relatively short time in our history - and even that is beginning to slip.
I certainly agree that sorting is a problem, but we've always had that problem and probably always will.
July 25, 2008 3:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
My apologies for not responding to this thoughtful comment by BevD earlier, when it mattered. I want to post a couple of notes for the record: the comment unearthed an unclear point from my preceding comment.
1. By "it was supposed to go away", I meant: sorting was trending down after World War II, and then rebounded. Assuming greater spatial mobility, this reversal might seem surprising in light of trends post WWII.
Sorting was the norm before WWII, without a doubt.
You can tell a persuasive story either way, predicting that sorting should have increased or decreased.
2. I should have written: "SHARED unhappiness with a bad president is not the same as real consensus." Regarding your statement about compromise: agreed, 100%.
August 17, 2008 6:53 PM | Reply | Permalink