Benny Morris, the Times, and Iran
I'm still livid over the New York Times' decision to publish an inflammatory piece by the respected Israeli historian Benny Morris entitled "Using Bombs to Stave Off War." The thrust of the article, which ran on Friday, July 18th, is that is that Israel must bomb Iran by the end of this year, as military action offers the only hope of ending Tehran's nuclear program. Going a step further, Morris expresses pessimism about whether even this will work to end Iran's pursuit of nuclear weapons, and suggests that absent strong international support to disarm Iran "an Israeli nuclear strike to prevent Iran from taking the final step toward getting the bomb is probable."
What is Morris thinking, and what were the Times editors thinking when they decided to run his article?
The foundation of Morris's argument is his assumption that "Given the fundamentalist, self-sacrificial mindset of the mullahs who run Iran . . . They are likely to use any bomb they build." In short, Morris is suggesting that the Iranian leadership is suicidal, willing to sacrifice their nation and their lives in order to launch a nuclear strike at Israel.
Morris's central point is also the weak link in his argument. No matter how despicable their ideology or how steeped in hatred they may be, the leaders of Iran want to live, to exert power, and to propagate their ideology.
There is a strong case to be made that Iran's quest for nuclear weapons is a defensive rather than an offensive gesture. As Thomas Powers notes in an essay in the most recent edition of the New York Review of Books, the notion that "Tehran wants to bomb in order to dominate the Persian Gulf region and to threaten neighbors, especially Israel . . . is a misreading of how other nuclear powers have made use of their weapons. As tools of coercive diplomacy nuclear weapons are almost entirely useless, but they are extremely effective in blocking large-scale or regime-threatening attack. There is no evidence that Iran has a different motive, and plenty of reason for Iran to fear that attack is a real possibility."
This brings us back around to the question of diplomacy. Advocates of attacking Iran suggest that diplomacy has already been tried -- by the European Union -- and that it has failed. What is missing from this picture is that in the absence of a United States commitment to engage in genuine talks with Iran, the leadership in Tehran will still fear the possibility of a military attack or even a threat of "regime change" on the part of the current administration in Washington. United States involvement in diplomacy with Iran, including a pledge to take military action "off the table" in exchange for some formula for curbing Iran's nuclear program, is an essential precondition for progress. Will it work? There is no guarantee. Has diplomacy been tried and failed? Absolutely not. Until the U.S. gets into the game in a serious way -- a move supported by Sen. Barack Obama -- we won't know whether diplomacy can work to head off an Iranian bomb. But even if this effort were to fail, there is no justification for the kind of nuclear first strike that is implicitly endorsed by Benny Morris. This kind of loose talk can only serve to ratchet up tensions at a time when there could well be a diplomatic breakthrough on the Iranian nuclear question.
So why did the Times run the Morris piece? He's obviously entitled to his opinion, but as the paper has shown in its recent rejection of John McCain's op-ed on Iraq, there is no inherent right to be published in the New York Times. Did the editors think Morris's view was representative of some sort of consensus of Israeli opinion, as Morris (wrongly) implies? Did they think it was newsworthy that a well-regarded historian could hold such views? Were they seeking to provide that ever elusive quality -- balance? We may never know. Now that it is on the record, the only positive outcome will be if opponents of Morris's views speak out clearly and loudly in favor of a "diplomacy first" approach to the Iranian conundrum.










Comments (48)
Have you asked the Times to print a column by you as a response? You're surely qualified. If they say yes then the playing field is even and if they say no, that's telling.
July 22, 2008 5:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Benny Morris's position is an obvious one. Kill them before they kill you. Its the Bush Doctrine of preemptive strikes against possible enemies. Preventing the attainment of nuclear weapons by using nuclear weapons, is an abdication of the moral high ground. Let's say you are willing to kill hundreds of thousands of civilians to achieve your goal, are not you trying to frighten the population into submission of your will? What sort of reaction from the victims of such an attack is justified? If Iran got a nuclear weapon and used it on Israel, what would Israel do in return? Israel wants the right to exist, but Muslim countries want Palestine to exist. Lets just say for a moment that Israel attacks Iran using a nuclear weapon. What next? Are they prepared to occupy Iran. Do they believe that total annihilation of Iran will end the oppositional threat to Israel's existence? Will it? Even supposing, the nations of the world do not join in such act of war, if you were Israel's neighbor, would you be concerned that you may be next?
On second thought, maybe this is just a ploy to maintain the price of oil. Simple answers work best.
July 22, 2008 6:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
If I recall Morris' piece well, he said and I am of necessity paraphrasing here, that 'daily, the Iranian leadership is calling for the destruction of the state of Israel'. This does not seem to me to be true and I suspect Morris is intentionally lying. I understand AHMADI-NEJAD has made some calls that have been translated in this way (although if my understanding is right, some other translations were not as threatening. But "daily"? Is this true? (If it were wouldn't it be all over our press and our political discourse?) And if it is not, Mr Hartung, why do you refer to the lying, warmongering Morris as a respected Israeli historian? Or is the respect derived from likudniks, Netanyahu-ites and other well known warmongers?
July 22, 2008 7:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
@ della Rovere
Why don't you use the Internet to resolve your doubts about the reality and nature of Iran's threats?
I did.
My conclusion was that the threats are as bad as could be and consistant over a long period of time. Whether they are daily or weekly or monthly doesn't matter, nor do the supposed "errors of translation" espoused by Juan Cole and others. Christopher Hitchens published a piece on Juan Cole and his crap in Slate, to which Cole responded. I think Cole is a complete ass and his response that of a petulant child.
But, hey, that's my opinion. You have Google. You have the Internet. Use them as they were meant to be used.
July 23, 2008 12:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
The NY Times likely new exactly what they were doing and, in my opinion, they should be commended for doing so. Benny Morris is not on the fringe of Israeli society but is close to the establishment and has views of the Arab and Muslim world that is shared by a plurality of the Israeli people. We should also realize that 30-40% of them support the transfer option as a solution to the West Bank problems.
I think the American people need to be thoroughly exposed to the these views so that we can make informed choices in how far we are willing to go in defending Israel in her incessant wars.
July 22, 2008 8:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, and I believe Mr. Hartung is arguing that the New York Times should try to manipulate and affect the reality of news of the world by refusing to print a guest op-ed like this one, that they should take some advocacy responsibility in that regard. But they do do advocacy, just not with guest op-eds. That's what their own edtorial board editorials are for. Guest op-eds are there to inform the readers what movers and shakers are thinking, even if the reader considers that opinion horrible. They actually do try to affect world events with their own editorials...of course, few care about those. It's always been very clear to me that for decades, the guest op-eds are on a very news-oriented basis of "what movers and shakers are thinking," regardless of what that is. It's an adjunct, a branch of news gathering.
July 22, 2008 10:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think Benny is drowning in a sea of his own pessimism. He's lost his marbles. I agree somewhat with his transfer thesis and the idea that it might be necessary for a permanent peace settlement, but his nuke first ask questions later idea forwarded in the Times only makes sense if you can prove that Iran is a millennial regime centered around starting the end times. I'm not convinced. I still feel there is a deep Persian state behind the theocratic facade and to ignore that is to ignore reality. Hopefully direct negotiations will achieve a breakthrough.
July 22, 2008 8:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree with Hartung's general point. But the ritual denunciations of Iran make no sense:
"Morris's central point is also the weak link in his argument. No matter how despicable their ideology or how steeped in hatred they may be, the leaders of Iran want to live, to exert power, and to propagate their ideology."
This is said of the only country in the Middle East to have Jewish legislators, and the only one to run tv shows actually accepting that there was a holocaust. A quick survey of the Middle East shows us:
1. The Islamic Republic of Iraq, headed by the Da'awa party, which, famously, formed in the 80s as an front garde terrorist group for Khomeini's ideology, allied itself with Hezbollah, and has, let's say, no intention of playing nice with Israel.
2. The Gulf states, headed by Saudi Arabia. The Saudi educational system indoctrinates anti-Jewish hatred from the first grade on. The Saudi state sponsored tv network loves to put on things like the dramatization of the Protocols of the Elders of Zion. The American foreign policy elite love to be seen exchanging smiles and handshakes with the political rulers of this society, one in which there hasn't ever been a free and fair election, and where women are so hemmed about with laws that they make Iranian women look like models of postmodernist freedom. On the other hand, it is always good for a Ripleys believe it or not moment - for instance, do you know what country just condemned an old woman to death by stoning as a witch, after a trial in which it was admitted she was tortured? If you guessed that friendly land where President Bush was recently palling around with his buddies, and the press corps, continuing a fifty year tradition, asked zip questions about the anti-semitism, the tyranny, or the judicial system, you guessed correctly!
3. Pakistan. Ah, Pakistan, friend of freedom, endpoint for 3 to 6 billion American bucks per year, and generous to a fault with its technology. For instance, sharing its nuclear weapon technology with North Korea was quite the generous act. When the government is not arming the world's pathological regimes with nuclear weapons, what is it doing for humanity? Why supporting a madrassa system modeled on the Saudi type (indoctrinating anti-Jewish thought) and then, for entertainment, implementing pogroms in Shi'ite neighborhoods.
Until the U.S. admits that it is friends with thugs and worse than thugs in the Middle East, the hot bubbles tossed about concerning the evil mullahs just have to be laughed at. As for Morris' odd idea that the "mullahs" are proclaiming that they want to use military force to "wipe Israel from the map," that is, of course, a complete and utter lie. In fact, the only nation talking about attacking another nation is Israel talking about bombing Iran. Iran's leadership has said, often, that it wants Israel to be wiped from the map the way the soviet union was - downfall from within. It wants, in other words, a one state solution. The logical move is to make the two state solution such a permanent part of the Middle Eastern map that the Iranians have no Palestinians to support for their position. Ah, but that would require, uh, negotiation and like peace and stuff. Only wimps engage in such activities.
July 22, 2008 9:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why be angry at The Times?
Benny Morris' op-ed announces a point of view and/or policy prescription which is held, doubtless, by some significant part of the Israeli establishment. And The Times presumes the mullahs will read it. They will be warned.
The Times, perhaps arrogantly, believes it's a conduit of communication between antagonistic elites. As it sees the case it's merely carrying out its international civic responsibilities.
July 22, 2008 9:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you.
And regarding the "perhaps arrogantly," I believe that this is not the case in this case, as all parties involved know how to work the international print media like a chess board, and yes, that includes the Iranian mullahs.
July 22, 2008 10:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Times ran the piece because they didn't think the views you express, views commonly held by much of the Left, are the word of God.
Many, many people take quite seriously Iran's threats to extirminate Israel and its people, and its expressed willingness to sacrifice millions in order to achieve its goals. It's more than odd that you find suicidal actions to be foreign to their thinking when suicidal actions as a military tactic are so common in today's Muslim world.
It's also more than odd that you go to such lengths to characterize Iran's leaders as rational and sober when you have no problem labeling our leaders and those of Israel as raving madmen.
July 22, 2008 10:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Correction: NOT the word of God.
July 22, 2008 10:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
OTY, please feel free to post a quote in which Hartung actually characterizes the leaders of Israel or the United States as raving madmen. It's certainly not evident in the OP.
July 23, 2008 12:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
@ gharlane
Ok. Perhaps I was wrong. He's certainly following this thread so let's ask him.
Tell me, Mr. Hartung, have you ever publicly characterized members of the Bush administration or the Israeli leadership, as raving madmen or something similar? I said you characterized Iran's leaders as rational and sober. I think that's fair but you may not. So, however, you actually characterized Iran's leaders have you ever characterized those of Israel and the United States in less complimentary terms?
July 23, 2008 12:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hartung's actual words in the OP are:
So, let's see... they have a despicable ideology... they're steeped in hatred...
Is this what you mean when you say that Hartung is describing Iran's rulers as "ational and sober"?
I'll grant you that the idea that the Iranian rulers "want to live, exert power, and propagate their ideology..." conveys some degree of rationality, although I'd more likely characterize it as something like "survival instinct."
Once again, though, what you're doing is constructing a caricature that's far beyond even a garden-variety strawman. On both this and on MJ Rosenberg (or, to use your term, "Rosenswine")'s thread I linked to in my previous comment, that's been a pretty consistent strategy. Your opponents are leftie a-holes (etc., etc.) who demonize US and Israeli leaders as "madmen" while apologizing for Iran's leadership as being "rational and sober." It simply doesn't stand up to the evidence.
If you actually want to win an argument or -- God forbid -- have an intelligent discusssion about opposing viewpoints, you could start with accurately characterizing your opponent's position.
July 23, 2008 12:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
gharlane says;
"If you (offensivetoyou) actually want to win an argument or -- God forbid -- have an intelligent discusssion about opposing viewpoints, you could start with accurately characterizing your opponent's position."
Mischaracterizing his opponents position is his stock in trade. He constantly misinterprets his opponents post then attacks his misinterpretation.
July 23, 2008 10:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
The "link in the previous comment" is actually available downthread.
In that thread, btw, I have now (belatedly) responded to one of your replies to me. In that thread you had quoted Benny Morris as your source for the blanket assertion that "Iran is working on a nuclear weapon." The Morris quote is: "Every intelligence agency in the world believes the Iranian program is geared toward making weapons, not to the peaceful applications of nuclear power." As I pointed out, Morris (and you) astonishingly overlooked the 2007 NIE that reached a rather different conclusion.
"Overlooked" is, of course, the most charitable characterization. As I pointed out, it's hard for me to believe that Morris was unaware of this document. If he was aware of it, of course, he wasn't overlooking anything; he was lying.
You have consistently claimed that the "leftie A-holes" universally condemn Israeli and US leadership as madmen while at the same time this unified block of pimply-faced retards do nothing but apologize for Iran's leadership and characterize them as "sober and rational." This, as I have pointed out already, is a caricature barely deserving of the term "straw man argument".
Your position, of course, is diametrically opposite to the caricature -- based, apparently, on Iranian rhetoric rather than on any concrete actions. The Israeli and US leaders are hard-nosed, rational people facing terrible choices against the irrational madmen in Tehran who will wipe Israel off the map at their first opportunity, which will come when they obtain a nuclear weapon, which they will within one to five years, because Benny Morris says that every intelligence agency in the world agrees. You appear blind to the possibility that this is a caricature as well.
Perhaps the truth lies somewhere in between?
Israeli foreign minister Tzipi Livni, in October 2007, was reported in Ha'aretz as stating (behind closed doors) that Iran posed no existential threat to Israel.
Oh, and Ephraim Halevy? As the Ha'aretz piece notes, he's the former chief of the Mossad. And, also as noted in the Ha'aretz piece, in Yedioth Ahronoth the week before, Halevy was quoted as follows:
As is to be expected from quotes from former spy agency chiefs, you have to read a bit between the lines. My reading is that Israel "cannot be destroyed" because of "things you know" and "can imagine" -- i.e., Israel's nuclear and conventional capability, which the Iranians know about and are not suicidal enough to test with an attack. In other words, they are rational actors, whatever else we may believe or know about them. That, of course, is my reading, and I'd be curious to find another plausible one.
Halevy continues:
Continuing (I no longer have blockquotes spanning paragraph breaks, because the TPM software apparently hasn't figured out how to deal with them):
Halevy goes on to describe the poor economic situation in Iran, Ahmadinejad's unpopuparity, and concludes that "Iran is a bitter enemy, but this does not mean that it should be an enemy forever."
Not quite the same black and white picture as you're painting, hmm?
A Wikipedia article on Iran's nuclear program, which paints a decidedly mixed picture, quotes a 17 July 2007 article in The Economist as follows: "most of those Israeli experts willing to talk rate the chances of an Iranian nuclear attack as low. Despite Mr Ahmadinejad, most consider Iran to be a rational state actor susceptible to deterrence." (The article itself is behind The Economist's subscription firewall, and I don't have a sub, so I'm forced to rely on Wikipedia.)
So the range of opinions in Israel regarding Iran and its putative nuclear weapons program, at the highest levels of government, is far from unanimous, and also far from the caricature of Iran you have presented on TPM. You might wish to credit the Israelis with a bit more intelligence... unless you believe FM Tsipi Livni, Mossad ex-chief Ephraim Halevy, and others, to be "hysterical morons on the Left." I look forward to your making that argument.
July 23, 2008 1:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
@ gharlane
Khamenei vs. Ahmadinejad?
I haven't found anything on Hartung's opinion of the mullahs but this thread is interesting. I would expect that Hartung shares the views of most of the posters.
I don't have any more time tonight nor in the next few days.
July 23, 2008 2:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
I do expect you to come back when you have time.
I will be logging this thread and referring back to it. I expect you to come back with factual responses, when you do have time, or concede, at minimum, significant factual error.
July 23, 2008 3:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
@ gharlane
William Hartung interview
The first piece of the puzzle. It's not Hartung's style to call people names, but in this interview he comes damn close. It's clear he thinks Bush and his neo-con advisors are deluded madmen - raving lunatics.
Now I have to see what he's said about Iran's leaders.
July 23, 2008 1:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
Your argument would be considerably assisted with quotations and with specific instances where you think Hartung's assertions are factually false or misleading.
Your discussion should also account for the well-known 1999 memo of the Project for a New American Century. You could begin with this BBC News article. Your discussion should also take account of the Phase II Senate Intelligence Committee report on the run-up to the invasion of Iraq. According to a statement provided to the Huffington Post by Senate Intelligence Committee Chair Jay Rockefeller (I'm not even going to try to blockquote it):
***
"-- Statements and implications by the President and Secretary of State suggesting that Iraq and al-Qa'ida had a partnership, or that Iraq had provided al-Qa'ida with weapons training, were not substantiated by the intelligence.
-- Statements by the President and the Vice President indicating that Saddam Hussein was prepared to give weapons of mass destruction to terrorist groups for attacks against the United States were contradicted by available intelligence information.
-- Statements by President Bush and Vice President Cheney regarding the postwar situation in Iraq, in terms of the political, security, and economic, did not reflect the concerns and uncertainties expressed in the intelligence products.
-- Statements by the President and Vice President prior to the October 2002 National Intelligence Estimate regarding Iraq's chemical weapons production capability and activities did not reflect the intelligence community's uncertainties as to whether such production was ongoing.
-- The Secretary of Defense's statement that the Iraqi government operated underground WMD facilities that were not vulnerable to conventional airstrikes because they were underground and deeply buried was not substantiated by available intelligence information.
-- The Intelligence Community did not confirm that Muhammad Atta met an Iraqi intelligence officer in Prague in 2001 as the Vice President repeatedly claimed."
***
Seth Colter Walls, "Senate Report: Bush Used Iraq Intel He Knew Was False", The Huffington Post, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/06/05/divided-senate-committee_n_105374.html
That same article quotes Senator Dianne Feinstein as follows:
I leave it to you to provide what you believe is an accurate description of the individuals who took this country to a war costing, to date, the lives of over 4,000 US service members, an unknown number of Iraqis, and over half a trillion dollars (on track to well over $3 trillion, based on such a deliberate distortion of the intelligence record.
You could, of course, dismiss Senators Feinstein and Rockefeller, BBC world affairs correspondent Paul Reynolds, and economists Joseph Stiglitz and Linda Bilmes (former Commerce Dept. CFO) as "hysterical morons on the Left." That might be complicated by the fact that Stiglitz, for example, has been described in a review at the well-known hysterical leftist Cato Institute as follows:
July 23, 2008 2:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
@ gharlane
You're so damn predictable.
You accuse me of falsifying Hartung's position, and claim that this is the norm for me. Now, when I've shown you that I accurately stated his positions, you don't apologize for your error, but instead argue that his positions - AS I ACCURATELY PORTRAYED THEM - are correct.
Do you really think I'm interested in pursuing an argument with anyone as dishonest as you?
July 23, 2008 2:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
Now, when I've shown you that I accurately stated his positions, you don't apologize for your error, but instead argue that his positions - AS I ACCURATELY PORTRAYED THEM - are correct.
You have, of course, shown nothing of the kind.
You posted a link to an interview and then expected me and everyone else to read into it what you read into it. Once again, it's the classic straw man approach -- caricature your opponent's position and then argue against the caricature. It ain't gonna work.
Meanwhile I have discussed your caricature of the Iranians -- disputed by senior Israeli officials -- and shown evidence from, among other places, the Senate Intelligence Committee Phase II report on the run-up to the Iraq invasion, that at the very least suggests that the United States leaders you mention were willing to distort, misrepresent, and lie about intelligence findings in order to push a disastrous war of aggression. The Senate Intel Committee concluded that the key claims that the Bush Administration used to build their case for the Iraq invasion were not supported by the available intelligence, even though the Bush Administration repeatedly claimed that they were. In itself this does not necessarily brand them as raving lunatics, but it does suggest, at the very least, deep dishonesty and a willingness to -- shall we say, mislead -- the United States Congress and public into launching a war that strengthened Iran's position in the ME and otherwise caused untold damage to the international standing of the US and to the US economy. And that's not even counting the lives lost on both sides.
You've proven nothing, and I have committed no error. And you're digging yourself in deeper all the time.
July 23, 2008 3:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
@ gharlane
from Hartung's interview
I conclude that Hartung thinks these men are unprincipled, corrupt, megalomaniacal lunatics. You don't agree? Then we'll never agree about anything. My conversation with you is over.
July 23, 2008 8:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
offensivetoyou says:
"I conclude that Hartung thinks these men are unprincipled, corrupt, megalomaniacal lunatics. You don't agree? Then we'll never agree about anything. My conversation with you is over."
OTY, don't go, don't go, I'm enjoying seeing you getting your ass kicked.
July 23, 2008 10:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
"..they didn't think the views you express...are not the word of God." A double negative? Do you mean that the NYT does think the views of the Left are the word of God? Maybe one less martini before you write, or a short nap.
July 22, 2008 11:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
@ Faroff
I worked long hard hours today and am tired.
However, despite my errors I don't think it's all that hard for a normal individual to divine my meaning. But then I do have great trouble believing that Lefties are normal individuals as opposed to pretentious, intolerant, hypocritical schmucks.
But you know that.
July 22, 2008 11:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wow, I think you've added a couple new epithets to your running string of terms of endearment, such as: leftie A-hole, MJRosenswine, pimply-faced retard, dumb-ass, moron, despicable moron, pathetic anti-semite loser stewing in your hatred down in South Texas, piece of living excrement, political correctniks, schmuck (referring to a well-known Ha'aretz reporter), leftie idiot, little leftie, vacuous airhead, piece of living excrement, jackass, masturbator (not that there's anything wrong with that), dumb as a post, and swinish, anti-semitic lunatic. (That's only this thread -- quite an impressive record, I must say.)
As I pointed out in that thread, some of your arguments might be treated more seriously if you didn't pepper your comments quite as liberally with such terms of endearment.
July 23, 2008 12:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
I don't think there is a left and right anymore. The lines are blurred. Maybe especially on the left side. There just are no classic liberals anymore. Liberal was once a good word, and it was not a political position. As the old Willie song says "Lefty split for Ohio, where he got the bread to go, there ain't nobody knows."
July 22, 2008 11:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't myself give a toss for the opinions of anyone who thinks it's amusing to post under a picture of a man made famous by impaling his enemies.
July 23, 2008 4:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think that the situation is clear: the hostility, its implacable nature, lack of rationality is all to well attested, and we really cannot wait until actual threats will materialize.
The only question is if we should try conventional bombing of offensivetoyou, or cut to the chase and start with nukes?
My feelings about publishing Morris's screed are mixed. It is good to know about such views, although Morris is a dangerous fabulist with genocidal fantasies. And too many outrageous ideas are being pushed without the authors being instantly deemed "off reservation". Nuking a country as a precautionary measure? What next?
A small example: a teleevangelist muses on the silver screen that it would be good to assassinate Hugo Chavez . Besides it being rather non-evangelic, somehow nobody asked how such an extreme idea could even emerge? Chavez engaged in unfriendly but utterly non-threatening rhetoric, and WHAM! some folks conclude that it is enough to assassinate him. Ah, he also controls some oil. Jesus himself would cast the first stone.
From quarter-full glass department, this looks suspiciously as if offensivetoyou were conceding a point: "My conclusion was that the threats are as bad as could be and consistent over a long period of time. Whether they are daily or weekly or monthly doesn't matter, nor do the supposed "errors of translation" espoused by Juan Cole and others."
It reminds me Gorge Constanza shouting: "I must tell about something that it sometimes may look small, but in fact it can be as big as it should be, and more!"
July 23, 2008 5:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
offensivetoyou:
"Many, many people take quite seriously Iran's threats to extirminate Israel and its people, and its expressed willingness to sacrifice millions in order to achieve its goals."
One thing that Iran and Israel both have in common is that Israel uses the nuclear threat to take away international focus from its genocidal actions against the Palestinians while Iranians use Israel to put pressure on the U.S.' occupations along its borders. Furthermore, bellicose and inexcusable statements on wiping Israel from the map domestically bolster Iran's leadership as its economy crumbles. As for Israel, more than anything, it does not want the balance of power to erode with a nuclear armed Iran, that is Israel's greatest threat.
"It's more than odd that you find suicidal actions to be foreign to their thinking when suicidal actions as a military tactic are so common in today's Muslim world."
Like most of the ignorant masses, forming assumptions on how the Iran regime will behave based on mischaracterizes and generalizations of the "Muslim world" fails to distinguish between Persian and Arab cultural differences and historical truths. This type of thing is counterproductive in solving problems with a much more sophisticated and global actor. Name the last Persian suicide bomber that comes to mind? Terrorists aren't just people with a darker shade of skin. Uneducated, xenophobic, and ethnocentric perceptions like those fuel hate mongering and perpetuate extremism in all forms.
July 23, 2008 11:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
@ christopherf
Iran's
Suicide Brigades
Just google "Iran+Suicide Bombers" for more links.
July 23, 2008 2:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you so much for the links. They confirm what I said above.
I can get on to the internets myself now. Fairly soon, I will be able to use the Google just like the experts: you and John.
July 23, 2008 3:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
della Rovere,
if you follow the link offered by offensivetoyou
it takes you to Middle East Forum site. Click on their "experts" and you find the worst of the right wing neo cons;
William Kristol, Daniel Pipes, Michael Rubin, to name a few, and there's the head of WorldNetDaily,
Joseph Farah among others.
Consider the source here, its like a Christian referring you to the Bible as proof of God's existance.
July 23, 2008 3:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
I was inspired by the always entertaining and amusing post by "offensivetoyou" to hit the Googles which he has mastered so effectively. The quote I was bothered by in the Benny Morris NYTimes piece was the following
"Which leaves only Israel — the country threatened almost daily with destruction by Iran’s leaders."
This is not a paraphrase, it is a direct quote.
Now encouraged by the scholar "offensivetoyou" who provided absolutely no references (of course not) but instead told me to work the internet if I wanted to understand Iran's threat to destroy Israel. And here is what I found. On October 26 Ahmadinejad made his now famous speech...certainly this could be taken as threatening the destruction of Israel in most quotations given in the media. The dispute about whether these translations are accurate are discussed at
www.themiddleeastnow.com/iranthreat.html
(You must click on the hyperlink "Was Ahadinejad Misquoted?)
Other than that one quote, the only other threats Iran leaders have made, concern what their military reaction will be if they are attacked. Now that does NOT fall under the description given by Morris. He is a dishonest, lying promoter of yet another preemptive war (the last going so swimmingly). To call him a respected historian begs the question, respected by whom? (other than the always amusing offensivetoyou ).
July 23, 2008 3:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
How can you be sure Morris is "lying"? How do you know he doesn't believe what he's saying? In which case and while he may be in error he's not "lying."
I worry that a significant number of Israelis and a significant part of the Israeli establishment believe what Morris purports to believe.
All decisions are based upon the perception of reality. Occasionally, that perception equals reality but only occasionally.
July 23, 2008 4:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's hard for me to know how to respond. Morris is apparently a historian, a scholar. Words have meaning. He says daily the Iranian leadership is making existential threats against the state of Israel. But there is apparently very few of these. Maybe just the one disputed one from October 2005. Isn't it inconceivable that a historian would be unaware of this. Look to make my point let me use an admittedly imperfect analogy...is it really the critical point what was in Bush's mind when he told the American people and the rest of the world that Saddam possessed weapons of mass destruction? I do not think so. He was lying in the sense that term is used in political discourse. Short of someone saying "we said this but of course, we knew differently..." how can we ever know anyone lied. Ever.
July 23, 2008 5:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
I guess all I can say is that were I confident Morris was lying -- that he knew what he was asserting was untrue -- I'd be more sanguine over the prospects of avoiding some precipitous Israeli action.
July 23, 2008 7:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
October 26, 2005
July 23, 2008 3:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
@ JohnW1141
Iran's Suicide Bombers
I don't have much time and picked the first link on a very long list. Here's another. A third is from the Times of London online.
July 23, 2008 6:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
@ della Rovere
Just Google "christopher hitchens+slate" or "chistopher hitchen+juan cole" and their exchange will come up. That too tough? Too bad.
July 23, 2008 6:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
offensivetoyou:
I do not see a logical connection between your initial response, my response, and the link you sent me on Iranian extremist groups.
You originally stated, "Many, many people take quite seriously Iran's threats to extirminate Israel and its people, and its expressed willingness to sacrifice millions in order to achieve its goals."
From the link you sent me, while Iran may train extremist organizations that are mostly used to clamp down on internal dissent, I see no connection how some groups could evidence that Iran would sacrifice millions to die for nuclear martyrdom that would effectively end its rule and expansionist ideology.
According to the link you sent me:
"Despite its rhetoric and the occasional rally, there is little evidence that the Iranian government has established camps to train suicide terrorists. While the Revolutionary Guards operate a network of bases inside Iran, there is little coverage—at least in open source newspapers and Iranian media—of actual training of those recruited by the Headquarters. There have been two mentions of a military exercise for the suicide brigades around the Karaj Dam. Muhammad-Reza Ja'afari, commander of the Gharar-gah-e Asheghan-e Shahadat (Congregation of the Lovers of Martyrdom) training camp, referred to one exercise as the "Labeik Ya Khamene'i" (We are responding to your call, Khamene'i).[34] With the exception of the representation of Hamas in the early development of the Iranian "martyrdom-seekers," there is little proof of organizational links to external terrorist organizations.
July 23, 2008 6:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Retired General John Abizaid, the former commander of the US Central Command for Iraq and Afghanistan from 2003-2007:
"I don't believe Iran is a suicide state," he said. "Deterrence will work with Iran. It is a country of many different power centers that are competing. Despite what their crazy president says, I doubt seriously whether the Iranians are interested in starting a nuclear war." As for the Israelis, Abizaid said "they can take care of themselves up to a point...." but "we and the Israelis are going to have to have a very clear conversation about what we will do if the Iranians develop and field a weapons. Over the next 20 years the relationship will have to go from a de-facto alliance to one of an unmistakable alliance." In other words, the US should extend its nuclear shield over Israel"
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nathan-gardels/abizaid-iraq-is-not-a-sui_b_114575.html
Maybe a nuclear armed theocratic Iran would be an Israeli blessing?
July 23, 2008 6:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
@ christopherf
I am sorry if I was unresponsive. I am short on time.
I thought you were making a distinction between Iranian and Arab willingness to use suicide bombers. I think both are willing to do so.
Ahmadinejad has also said that Muslims would be willing to take heavy losses - in the millions - to see Israel totally destroyed.
I googled "Iran+suicide bombers" to find an affirmative answer to the first assertion. I( did not attempt to support the second but, if I had time, I would google "Ahmadinejad+Israel's destruction" and proceed.
It must be noted that all societies with armies are willing to sacrifice a certain percentage of their young to achieve their goals or defend their territory.
July 24, 2008 4:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Right now, Israel is the only regional state in the Mideast with nuclear weapons. As long as that’s extant, Israel needn’t give an inch in “negotiations” with its neighbors, periodically ravage everything in fighter-bomber range and treat the Palestineans as contemptuously as it wishes.
Another nuclear power would change the equation considerably - and forever.
That’s the only issue here.
The idea that an Iran packing nuclear hardware would endanger the United States in any way is sheer, idiotic fantasy. Aside from the difficulty of delivering such weapons to targets, one simple fact endures from the U.S./Soviet Cold War experience: No nation can employ nuclear weapons without risking suicide.
We are bumbling toward yet another Mideast quagmire, one in which, evidently, we intend to help Israel bomb Iran out of nuclear capacity and appetite. And if Iran should try it again, a few years down the road, we’ll bomb them again. And again. And again. ...On into eternity. We’ll have to; after the first bomb falls, we’ll be locked into the insane, dead-end process. We will no longer have a choice. Our powers-that-be seemingly have sworn a blood oath to never negotiate with anyone Israel deems a foe. And as we’ve been told, real men go to Tehran.
No one sane can advocate yet another nation's acquisition of nuclear weapons. But keeping them out of the hands of sovereign nations is a formidable task. Unless we’re willing to bomb and terrify any nation, anywhere, that seeks them, we can’t force nonproliferation on the world. No one country or group of countries is that powerful, even in the unlikely chance they could coalesce into a truly united front. And we could maintain this consensus-by-terror only for awhile. Then we would have to bomb again. And again. Despite Robert Oppenheimer’s punchy observation, controlling nuclear weapons was futile even the day after Trinity: The genie was out of the bottle the moment the first device turned the desert floor to glass.
We can’t do it with death and destruction. We can't. Israel can't. We have to face our foes over bargaining tables, not battlefields. But it has been decided that our “democracy” will not talk, will not negotiate. We will bomb instead.
If so, we deserve the fruits of our savagery.
July 24, 2008 7:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
"After a public scolding in a conservative newspaper by a top aide to the Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Ahmadinejad several weeks ago publicly declared that Iran has no intention of attacking Israel or anyone else unless it was hit first...
Ephraim Halevy, the previous Mossad chief who now heads the Center for Strategic and Policy Studies at Hebrew University in Jerusalem, concurs. "I don't detect an appetite among the Iranians to bring about a catastrophe." But, he cautions, "There's a narrowing gap of opportunity for negotiations.""
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1826310,00.html
July 25, 2008 12:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
offensivetoyou:
Yes, I am making a distinction between Arab and Persian use of suicide bombers. Your evidence does not support your claim as I noted above. There simply isn't historical ground to assert Iran has exhibited suicidal behavior nor is there any indication from the consensus of U.S. and Israeli experts that Iran would sacrifice itself once it obtained a nuclear weapon.
Furthermore, Ahmadinejad is a flapping head who hold little power in the overall. According to renowned academic Iran expert Nikkie Keddie, Barbara Slavin (another renowned Iran expert, "underlines the point that the elected president, Ahmadinejad, is not commander in chief, and does not control military, foreign or nuclear affairs. He does appoint provincial governors and a number of other officials, and these appointments have been heavily of men belonging to the restrictive right and with ties to the Revolutionary Guards. His Cabinet appointments are subject to parliamentary approval, and several have been rejected."
http://www.truthdig.com/arts_culture/item/20080725_nikki_keddie_on_iran/
As I stated previously, Ahmadinejad does a lot of talking that amounts to a whole lot of nothing other than him trying to bolster domestic support for a widely unpopular regime in Iran.
July 25, 2008 1:02 PM | Reply | Permalink