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Six Questions About Sorting


If you doubt the possibility or the relevance of geographic self-segregation in America, consider two easily forgotten realities.

First, the U.S. is enormous, even in a world shrunk by technology. The distance from Seattle to Miami equals, within six miles, the distance from London to Tehran. You already know that the population keeps growing; in 1965 (an apocryphal year in Bill Bishop's The Big Sort), the U.S. population was less than 200 million, and now it's over 300 million. You may have noticed that many of these people are insufferable, either because of their ideas, priorities, or decision making. Even if they just comprise 1% of the population, you'll find three million insufferables. Living with these people is a pain. Governing with them is even worse. Compromising with them eats away at your self esteem.

Admit it: you want to escape these people. But if you cannot escape, or if you have achieved moral perfection and don't want to escape them, the people who can't stand you might escape, instead. Not all of them, but a few at a time, and when they do, they will escape in predictable ways. As the Mormons discovered, the U.S. is unusually well suited for this kind of escape. Compared to, say, Canada, the U.S. is filled top-to-bottom with places you might consider inhabiting. Distance from them isn't just a taste preference; your emotional survival depends on it. The ability to escape is a reflection of the country's success. They are unbearable, and you are too.

Second, the relevance of geography is a premise of American political institutions. Geography may not determine everything, but almost every institution, especially legislatures, exaggerates its importance. When geographic distributions change, politics change.

The sorting processes that Bill Bishop describes aren't exclusively geographic, but geography is the most important backstory, and for good reasons. For one thing, as Bishop notes in several passages, the importance of physical proximity within social networks persists. He mentions Prof. Robert Stross's "20 minute rule" of proximity applied to venture capitalists in Silicon Valley. Consumers still insist on proximity. Assuming that gas will never again be cheap or guiltlessly consumed, proximity will only matter more.

If you like your political reading analytical and agenda free, this book is for you. Don't be misled by the hyperbolic subtitle (Why the Clustering of Like-Minded America is Tearing Us Apart): the tone is measured, conspiracies are absent, and the focus is on the grass roots.

As a researcher who is looking at migration and political polarization in the U.S., I want to start by suggesting some general questions provoked by The Big Sort; in an upcoming post, I will say more about these questions and my sense of where this research could lead. The extensive literature on this topic appears in the book, and if it helps and if I'm able, I will try to link that to some of cafe's insights and questions.

My questions are:

When does sorting become political sorting?

Do people change places, or do places change people?

How is sorting different within (and between) regions, states, legislative districts, and cities?

Why is political sorting different from political polarization?

Considered across U.S. history, isn't geographic sorting just business as usual?

Why, exactly, is sorting a problem?

This last question is the essential one. One premise is that sorting inhibits necessary collective action. But are there benefits from sorting? I think it's a mixed bag. For example, even if you think you love political heterogeneity, consider the possibility (assuming you like activist government), local homogeneity could improve the effectiveness of local government and local public policy.

This kind of possibility raises a important concern for those on the left who might think heterogeneity of political interests complements a progressive agenda. (I can't say that anyone really believes this, but just in case.) The book mentions Madison's argument that heterogeneity improves government. Madison made this claim because he also believed that heterogeneity leads to less government. In a time of The Big Sort, the conceit that diversity-begets-tolerance-begets-liberal preferences seems hard to swallow. I doubt that a greater number of conservatives living within the Portland, Oregon city limits would increase the number of its bike lanes or trolley cars.

I worry most about two serious yet manageable consequences of The Big Sort (the phenomenon, not the book). First, sorting facilitates the illusion that the American experience (within America) is a universal one. In terms of ideology, this is an equal opportunity illusion. For a helpful illustration, check out this widely-viewed discussion on The View, in which co-host Elisabeth Hasselbeck learns, tearfully, that the African American association with the n-word is more nuanced and complex than her own.

Second, sorting means that persuasion, and any remaining belief in the need to persuade, can atrophy even further. For self-labeled progressives, the must-read chapter in The Big Sort is Chapter 7, which describes the recent history of the American megachurch. Megachurches are fascinating in their own right (Matt Taibbi's The Great Derangement is a good companion piece), but more important is the story of Donald McGavran and the lessons he learns from Bishop J. Waskom Pickett as a missionary in India. The story is remarkable and encouraging, even if you are deeply skeptical of churches, both mega and mini.

Read this chapter closely, and then ask yourself: if you thought your life depended on persuading conservatives to worry about, say, global warming, what would you do? I'm not talking about disaffected working class Reagan Democrats mentioned by, say, David Sirota or Thomas Frank, or even evangelicals. I mean the country-club belonging, options trading, gold hoarding, flat tax loving, UN hating, Erin Burnett watching, Hudson Institute conservatives. Chapter 7 will convince you it's possible, but here's a hint: its about more than the message, and you don't send them Al Gore.


Comments (14)

You ought to consider writing for a living. You're very good at it.


But I don't know about your choice of subject. The county, and especially certain regions, were formerly dominated by certain groups. Thanks to immigration, changing economics, the civil war and its aftermath, that's no longer true. Is there any more to it than that?

Good question. To be sure, any of the three factors you mention could generate a lifetime of interesting work.

But I think there are plenty of great reasons to investigate this topic. For me, it starts with this: In a high tech, mass mediated, mobile, and (supposedly) culturally homogenized country like the U.S., why should politics vary with geography, at all, ever?

The bigger puzzle presented by Bill's book is this: why does it matter EVEN MORE now than it did 20 or 30 years ago? The answers seem to transcend the simple matter of geography.

I'm not sure geography matters that much. At least not in the way you mean. I've noticed that it's the usual thing for people from small towns or rural areas to move to similar places. The same is true for urban dwellers.


That's not 100% true, of course, particularly for those at the high end with incomes or occupations independent of their location.


But it is true we all watch the same movies, listen to the same music, gag at the same news.


The fundamental divides are pretty much what they've always been. If you're black its race. If you're Muslim its religion. If you're homosexual it's sex. For everyone else its income and wealth.

The answers seem to transcend the simple matter of geography. Ian McDonald

Where it takes 60 votes to get anything done in the U.S. Senate and where 41 Senators are only beholden to not much more than 3% of the population (9,401,768), nothing -- NOTHING transcends geography.

Absolutely true, given those particular 41 Senators share some interest that the other 59 don't.

But what are the underlying reasons that preferences vary geographically or align geographically, even more than they did 30 years ago? That's what I meant by "transcend".

If we believe, for example, that wealthier voters enjoy greater spatial mobility than poorer ones, and if those kinds of voters skew Republican, that would be an example of an underlying reason. It turns out that some research supports that expectation.

Boy, don't let's forget what blogging is really all about.

I hate to say this, but I feel pretty sure that within the next 20 years, the Democratic Party will get veto-proof majorities in both houses of Congress - and it won't make a damn bit of difference.

We don't understand what has happened to us; we don't understand why the medical care system doesn't work, why the education system doesn't work, why the justice system doesn't work.

The idea, that everything will eventually be OK if we can just win all the elections, saddens me. But Ellen is correct to notice that Mr. Bishop seems to be implying that his book has implications for national politics...that this is what has REALLY happened, so to speak, and this is what we need to understand.

I'm kind of tilting toward thinking that it indicates something about the history of housing development. But I think it requires a lot more study before we even get to the point of forming the most interesting hypotheses. Bishop, coming off decades as a political reporter, seems to think he's closer than that.

But the idea that 60 senators is the new plus ultra is making me tired. At best, it's germane to notice that there are certain electoral laws that seem to make it difficult to empower the government with a strong consensus.

I prefer, actually, to think that the elusiveness of that consensus is due to Americans having forgotten the meaning of that eternal vigilance, upon which freedom is said to depend. Instead, most Americans have simply attempted to raise their families in a degree of comfort. This is no sin; the heroes of history, brought back from the other side, would all say that they paid the price they paid for just that, a quiet time. Ulysses in Limbo searched for the soul of a quiet man to be reborn into.

But the "little" progressive consensus of: cheaper medical care, cheaper education, abortion rights and progressive taxation (which is the opposite of the conservative canon: family values, small government, national security and lower taxes) is not enough to accomplish the opposite of The Big Sort, which would be The Big Agreement or something like that.

In effect, The Big Sort can be based on non-cutthroat competition as long as there is a level of consensus that "the sorted" agree on, no matter which side of the sort they end up on. In some sense the weaselly side of Bishop's argument is that electoral landslide conditions = emotional intensification of "sorting out". But that doesn't follow. I hate the Yankees and I hate Yankee fans. But it's not a life or death thing, and if my daughter falls in love with a Yankee fan, or if I get a chance to make money with a Yankee fan, then the "hatred" just gets pushed aside because it's just a form of non-crucial preference.

In other words, there are any number of cases in which we would see that a high degree of numerical "sorting" could still correspond to a high degree of consensus with a community "sorted" the other way.

One example of this was the blogger attempt to find army veterans who were liberal, and get them to run for office. Conservatives aren't very good at such cross-matching.

But if we thought that both sides of the "sorting" divide lacked something - such as a concept of this country's historical project, and the actions necessary for its survival in a context of strategic competition - then the "sorting" itself might seem less important if people acquired such a concept.

The important point of such a concept is this: at what point do the different sides of "the sorting" actually agree, without knowing it, but in a case where both are mistaken?

Both sides think that all we need is agreement in order to accomplish "what the country needs". (That is after all the essence of the 60-seat mania.)

But, that is false. There is NO degree of mere consensus that can render the US capable of doing whatever it wants. We are already in a situation of strategic competition, and we are already under threat - not immediate military threat, but the threat of long term economic domination.

And strange to say, many bloggers appear to think that it is progressive heresy even to talk like this. When the Chinese achieve superiority over both red and blue America, we're supposed to just like it, and hope that computer prices don't go up too much.

But they will.

At the end of the day, the 65-35 sort and the 51-49 America are not different. They are the same. They are the effect of pointless drifting in historical terms. The Republican Party like for foreign policy to be a region of fantasy, so that they can populate it with boogeymen and wedge issues. When will the Democratic Party take up the opposite position (which is true)? Obama says he believes the US has legitimate and achievable war aims in Afghanistan, and I am reduced to hoping he is kidding.

You can't be an American.

The United States is not very old, but a lot of things have gone on in its various regions and subregions. Those things have "persisted" in the form of clans, descendants, history, tradition, stages and events in cultural and economic development, ...

And these things are all different in the different regions.

This does help us to see how LITTLE the US really is high tech, "mass mediated" (whatever that is), mobile, and culturally homogenized.

Nazi Germany was culturally homogenized. The US is culturally anaesthetized. There's a difference.

avatar

"For a helpful illustration, check out this widely-viewed discussion on The View, in which co-host Elisabeth Hasselbeck learns, tearfully, that the African American association with the n-word is more nuanced and complex than her own."

Not a good example. Elisabeth Hasselbeck is a stupid, stupid person. She'd probably be just as confused about use of the n-word if she was African American herself.

Homogeneity is proven bad for biological robustness. It means increases susceptibility to disease or changing environmental circumstances. Being too perfectly adapted to a niche means lower chance of adjusting to changes.

So, yes, I would argue that homogeneity is bad for communities. It is surely not thehistorical norm, although in past settings like Rome or Medieval Europe the term "poliics" would have little meanng. Still, how could one maintain that the servants sharing the estate with the Senator's family would have the same politics?

If a community contains a full range of occupations it will not be homogeneous in politics. If it does not show a range, it is a housing development, not a community.

As to arguing with megachurch members about climate, I would suggest they might want to avoid being targets for future terrorism, and to be the country selling energy equipment, not the one buying it.

As to persuading, that is rare, but compromise is possible when two sides respect and trust each other. That was more possible during the middle of the 20th century when wealth was capped. This meant principles could in fact be such, and not merely aids to riches for the few.

I hate to say this, but this post is a good example of the kind of hash that gets made when people who consider everything as some kind of "science" get too far from the shallow end of the pool.

1. The "robust" diversity of an ecological community is a concept that cannot be simply applied to a sociological community - at least not without jettisoning sociology, which also claims to be a science. The truth is that we aren't even in a position to measure the "homogeneity" of a community toto coelo (although we can count its votes) because we have not defined what it means for a community to "thrive" or "deteriorate" in a non-ecological, sociological sense (although we can count its population!).

Mr. Wright's remark about Rome, etc., is without value.

The rest of Mr. Wright's remarks cannot be interpreted with any certainty.

No true genius ever permits himself to be rendered dumb by mere uncertainty.

The question that has been raised in my mind about political sorting is whether people are actually moving in order to be closer to people who resemble themselves politically and ideologically, or if political parties are instead refining and tailoring their ideological agendas in order to sell their party to people on the basis of other factors which tend to make people cluster together?

Suppose you have a county that is originally roughly evenly divided between unionized blue collar workers and non-unionized white collar workers and professionals. Suppose you have a pro-organized labor party that commands the loyalties of the first group, and an anti-labor party that commands the loyalties of the second. The county is politically divided. Suppose that in other ways, the people in the country are culturally similar - they all belong to the same three religious denominations X, Y and Z; and most are white, non-latinos, for example.

Now suppose some genius in the county, a skilled partisan political entrepreneur who is all about winning elections, says, "Hey, lets just split the difference on the economic stuff, but devise a platform that appeals to white anglo folks who belong to religions X, Y and Z."

Voila! That party takes over the county. The country has become much more politically uniform, but nobody has moved anywhere. And it may also be that few people have actually changed their "ideologies". Instead, the coalitional clusterings of ideological offerings from the parties has changed, and as a result people change their party affiliation in a way that reflects those party changes.

Political parties in the US are enterprises organized primarily for the purpose of running and winning elections, and fattening the wallets of those who run the party organizations. They are election-winning businesses. Ideology is just a ware that the party uses to sell itself to voters, but those wares are constantly changing, and appear in ever-new combinations. Maybe parties have just gotten better at figuring out what motivates the voters in specific culturally homogeneous locales, and devising their products to fit those voter preferences? Where the people in the locale were once divided by ideologies that pulled them apart, they are now united by platforms and agendas which aim at their cultural similarities.

Marketers have long known that people group together by lifestyle. In cities large enough to have a variety of suburbs or upscale neighborhoods people may have the same income but the doctors live here, the mid-level corporate folks there and the small business owners someplace else. They drink different beer. They drive different cars. They eat at different restaurants. They watch different movies. They travel to different places. Why is it surprising that they'll vote differently if you appeal to them like a beer marketer and sell them a politician that fits their brand?

The real question, bluebell, is this: what could you possibly do OTHER THAN appealing to them like a marketer of some kind?

The right answer is worth a very great deal.

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