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George Bush Pep Rally

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With stocks plummeting across the world, the White House has decided its time to send George Bush out to give us a pep talk. I doubt he will tell us to stop whining, but the guy who was a cheerleader at Andover must be pretty pissed off that he has to end his Presidency in the same stupid business.

It doesn't really matter what he says, because the U.S. economic freefall is not something he can do anything about. Take the dollar. British governments bonds are yielding 5% (Euro Bonds 4.5%) while U.S. Treasuries yield 2%. This simple fact is why the dollar is in freefall and oil costs us more everyday. In his congressional testimony this morning, Fed Chairman Bernanke talked about the banks need to rebuild capital, but as Bloomberg pointed out yesterday, even the biggest banks are in far more trouble than their balance sheets would indicate.

At an investor presentation in May, Citigroup Inc. Chief Executive Officer Vikram Pandit said shrinking the bank's $2.2 trillion balance sheet, the biggest in the U.S., was a cornerstone of his turnaround plan.

Nowhere mentioned in the accompanying 66-page handout were the additional $1.1 trillion of assets that New York-based Citigroup keeps off its books: trusts to sell mortgage-backed securities, financing vehicles to issue short-term debt and collateralized debt obligations, or CDOs, to repackage bonds.

Way back in January we warned about the Shadow Banking System , the $500 Trillion of off balance sheet derivatives that would come to haunt America. When this slow-motion crash is all over and the genius quants and hedge fund wizards have taken early retirement in their Greenwich mansions some brave soul in Congress will call a 21st Century version of the Pecora Commission and these Masters of The Universe will have to tell under oath the rationale behind the debt addled insanity that brought us here. And though Republicans like Phil Gramm, Wendy Gramm, David Stockman and James Baker will be in that rogue's gallery, we must also include Democrats like Robert Rubin and Sandy Weill who pushed through banking deregulation. This house of cards was a bi-partisan project.


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I always liked Rubin. I'm sure he'll have a good explanation for his policies of deregulation - such as changing conditions brought on by globalization.


Meanwhile - now that you've finished blaming and whining - what do you propose to do?


Would you have us raise interest rates to save the dollar? Credit would completely dry up, bankruptcies of major corporations - already likely - would occur immediately. Hundreds of thousands would be laid off. The mother of all depressions would follow. So, no, I don't think that's your policy of choice?


How about drilling in ANWAR and off the coast together with emergency construction of refineries in your neighborhood? Nah. Absolutely not.


Well, what then? Let me guess. Tax the rich to a punishing degree. Pull the troops out of Iraq immediately. Crush Israel (reopen the ovens if necessary - but quietly).


Sounds like the perfect solution, doesn't it?

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Whatever Rubin's motives, we're living with the ugly baby he fathered.

In 1999, the Glass-Stengall Act (1933) was repealed. The repeal was Rubin's doing, a Republican Congress passed it, Clinton signed it. The G-S Act (look it up) separated investment banking from commercial banking. With its repeal, there was little or no defense against speculation left in place.

Where hedge-fund managers fit in this mess, if they do, they've certainly profitted in this climate - like, the total annual compensation for the top five hedge fund managers was $12,600,000,000. (Shorting subprime mortgages was but one of the lucrative practices this bunch engaged in.)

@phelicity

It wasn't Rubin's doing. I did the research - googled Rubin plus Glass-Steagall - and posted 5 links.

1) Wikipedia article on Glass-Steagall
2) Two PBS articles and one other on the effectiveness of Glass-Steagall and time-lines on the various efforts to repeal and amend it.
3) A brief speech by Rubin about it, posted by the Treasury together with a statement of regret that full explanations by Rubin were available online only by subscription.


I posted but the post didn't make it, for whatever reasons. I'm not inclined to do it again.

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I love it!!! The rallying cry of the rich and in this case their water carriers...

"Don't take it out on us just because we're the greedy SOB's who caused it all or we'll make sure that you will all suffer even more. We got ours and we don't give a rat's ass about the rest of you."

@ libertine

Taplin didn't know what he was talking about and neither do you.


Further, who do you think you are to so harshly criticize others for pursuing their own interests? A saint? I've said it before but it should be repeated; The world out there is harsh and competitive. You haven't done too well? Too damn bad. Those who have done better than you might be better morally as well. Rubin in particular.

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You're right on one thing, it is a harsh and competitive world.

But I am always amused that you try to put this in a context of my 'situation', which you have very little understanding of to begin with. This has nothing to do specifically with 'me' per se. I am just commenting how you explain what will happen if the rich aren't allowed to continue (and encouraged by politicians?) in looting all the wealth they can from the other 90%-95% of us.

I just wish you'd admit all you are doing is making the case that we have no choice but to let the greedy take more and more. It is your point of view but it doesn't make it a 'truth'.

@ libertine

Nobody's "looting" all the wealth from "90-95% of the rest of us.


There are several examples of how wealth gets distributed so unequally; movies, sports, high tech, autos, airplanes. It's quite evident that, in a highly competitive environment the best will receive virtually all the rewards. Why buy (or watch) anything less?


In 1962 - in the golden age of egalitarian America before VietNam and all its horrors and while we still basked in the glow of total victory in WWII - Gabriel Kolko, a Harvard professor of economics and history wrote a book titled "Wealth and Power in America". Here's a quote from the dust jacket


The general increase in national wealth since 1910 cannot possibly justify the fact that 'throughout the 1950's, the income of the top 10th was larger than the total for the bottom five income-tenths - about the same relatioship as existed in 1910 and 1918


And probably existed at all times in all societies and reflected a basic reality in the genetic distribution of talents around a mean.


In our present situation, no one is at fault. Let me repeat; NO ONE IS AT FAULT. As long as you allow borrowing and lending situations like this are going to occur. As long as humanity constructs societies which depend upon endless expansion situations like this are going to occur.

Sorry about the blockquote error. The quote should encompass only the first paragraph.

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Hehehe...well offensive you and me are ideological opposites on this.

You seem to feel that just because 'this is the way it has always been' it means that nothing can be done.

Just for the record I really have no problem with people striving to and becoming wealthy per se. It is when the accumulation of the wealth becomes almost like a sport. It produces nothing and just becomes an exercise in 'how much can I get'. I know economics are about dollars ans cents. But nothing to be said for morality and ethics? When amassing such a large amount of wealth, so much wealth that is not/cannot be put to any use, doesn't it become useless in an economic sense? I thought that economics was about production and consumption. It seems large amounts of wealth is there just to be passed from one generation to the next.

@ libertine

As far as I know, no one but psychotic lunatics actually put money in mattresses. Everyone else invests or spends or engages in charity.

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Really? So no large amounts of wealth is being passed down from generation to generation within families? No one is amassing more wealth than they can ever spend in 100 lifetimes? Not all billionaires have last names of Buffet or Gates...in fact very few are like them.

@ libertine

Of course people amass huge fortunes and bequeath them to relatives. But nobody puts that money in mattresses. Some of it is spent on personal luxuries - which gives employment to a few craftsmen. Most is invested. Repeat. Most is invested. You just don't like where it is invested. You want to tell the owners of that capital how and where their money should be invested (sic)...and your preferred method of doing so is taxation.


In other words, you want to take their money and let the government make the decisions. Will the government do better in your terms? Will more people have the benefit of that money and will it be used to the betterment of society and future generations?


The answer is out on that one.

Really? You really and honestly trust the current banking system to hold your money?

Didn't have money in IndyMac, did you? But do you have money in BankofAmerica or CitiBank? Or Washington Mutual?

Do you know how long it takes to get your money back from the FDIC?

Go read the Bloomberg report Taplin references.

Those banks have been playing the same "off-the-books" games that Enron did eight years ago. It is an accounting fiction banks use to hide the risk they have taken on. And it is as risky as Hell in the current economy.

Bear Stearns, as an investment bank, didn't bother with the fictions, so they carried a 33 to 1 ratio of loans to capital. That means that when over 1/33rd of their loans went bad, they couldn't pay their creditors. So they went under. The banks with off-the-books assets simply can't be evaluated for risk, but it is high.

What that shows is that the distribution of wealth is a factor of power, not of value added.

Since modern economics ignores the effects of power all economic theory should be ignored when it give unfair results. The middle class in America exists because of the change of power relations brought about by the FDR regime after the previous power and wealth regime had collapsed though its own failures.

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In today's political reality, the hyper-wealthy can and never neglect to exert huge pressure - by way of their pocketbooks - on politicians with power to create a less than level economic playing field to favor them.

Were the hyper-wealthy to achieve and hold on to their wealth with no help from government, well and good, but they don't.

If part of 'doing business' is to get government on your side, fine, but then don't complain when the wind changes direction and you come out on the short end of the stick.

If you can't operate without government help, you deserve to fail.

What do we call people who pursue their own interests - and as you ignored - the the exclusion of the interest of others?

Crooks. Con Men. Thieves.

That's what we call them. When we are being mostly polite.

That was intended to say "To the exclusion of others."

I hate this no preview system.

Meanwhile - now that you've finished blaming and whining - what do you propose to do?

This is a valid question, although maybe a bit tangential to the main article. How would you answer it yourself?

@ Tankard

It's not only a valid question, it's the ONLY question worth asking, and is hardly tangential.
Unfortunately, there's no good answer which is why there's so much dispute.


On energy, I do NOT favor drilling in protected places. We MUST adjust to the new reality and it is much better that we do so before we use up all our oil and/or ruin every environment. Conservation is the obvious first step and the market will force it on people. Good legislation will help.


Population reduction is also a must. I doubt it can be achieved peacefully but, here again, the market and good legislation can be very potent.


On the current financial crises. The price of oil is rising because there's not enough to satisfy demand and never will be. The prices of most other commodities and manufactured goods are rising because oil is used to make or extract them. The only way to lower those prices is to reduce oil dependence which may or may not be possible.


Houses are different. There's currently a surplus because people can't afford what's been built...and too much credit was extended to try and make it affordable. The markets will have to clear and a lot more bad debt written off before to the situation changes and that's going to cause an enormous amount of pain. We'll just have to try and muddle through while looking for a better system.

It's not only a valid question, it's the ONLY question worth asking...

I couldn't agree less. There are many, many questions worth asking on economics, politics, ethics and thousands of other topics.

...and is hardly tangential.

Not tangential to the current economic realities, maybe, but certainly not directly responsive to the theme of Jonathan's essay.

Unfortunately, there's no good answer

This I agree with. We're too far gone. We are in the position of a driver who, noting that he is going to run out of gas long before he gets to the filling station, accelerates. We already had a long walk facing us, and are striving to make the walk longer.

I note that all your solutions are incremental and long term. These are the right kind of solutions, in my opinion, but will require too much pain to be supported politically.

@ Tankard

If you agree that my solutions are of the right kind but cannot be supported politically because of the pain they inflict (there's a better than 50-50 chance you've right) then governments will be forced to adopt much worse solutions.


My guess is terrible resource wars. What's yours?


And incidently, what is the theme of Taplin's article? I thought it was


We're in the shit. I told you we would be. It's all the fault of mostly Republican "geniuses and quants", although some Democrats can be blamed, too. It all would have turned out differently if you'd listened to me, me, ME!!!


Why bother responding to that? Who can believe such shit? Who cares?

My guess is terrible resource wars. What's yours?

Sure, recsource wars, but also the collapse of the American economy and thus the world's.

I thought [the theme of this essay] was...
We're in the shit. I told you we would be. It's all the fault of mostly Republican "geniuses and quants", although some Democrats can be blamed, too.

I would pretty much agree that this describes the theme in broad terms, except he said "we." And you have characterized it in inappropriately childish terms.

Why bother responding to that?

Only you can answer that question. But you did respond to it, tangentially, which was my point.

Who can believe such shit? Who cares?

Moi, for one. To both.

@ tankard

The collapse of the American economy is not a policy any government would willingly choose. Granted it may happen anyway.


I chose to respond to Taplin in a sarcastic way because it reflected my general opinion of him, and the uselessness of continual whining and blaming. I did ask him for solutions. He didn't respond although he's clearly following the conversation.


You see value in blaming, and merit in his analysis and attribution of blame? Fine, but you'll never convince me.

I'm not a bit sure that you're reading me. I wasn't making value judgements about whether Taplin should have wasted our time expressing his opinion, or whether you should waste our time taking the conversation in a different direction. I was describing the landscape of the thread as I saw it.

I was also trying to lift the conversation up from it's status of two figurative people, each pointing at the other saying, "You're an idiot." I would not say I was particularly successful.

The collapse of the American economy is not a policy any government would willingly choose.

Choose? No. Allow to happen? Yeah, I think this administration would do that if they thought they could hold it off until they were out of office for a few years with a tidy pile of gold or diamonds somewhere.

Feudalism has its advantages for the barons, you know.

@ tankard

I don't think gold and diamonds will be all that helpful if there's a collapse of the world economy followed by horrendous resource wars. The safest place would be right at the heart of American power.

Where will that power be when our economy tanks?

Currently we are spending more on our military that all the rest of the world combined - and its not enough to occupy Iraq.

To afford that military we are running a deficit that is unbelievable, one that is being bought up by such nations as China. But our economy is collapsing into a nasty stagflation. In a short time we will not be able to afford our Pentagon/Intelligence budget.

Then what? How much power will we have when we can no longer afford to field 13 carrier task forces because we can't afford the diesel to train and operate? Our aviation sector is collapsing over fuel prices and out military is facing the same damned prices.

How much "power" can we demonstrate when we can't afford to train or send the troops out? We've been there for short periods. This next one is not going to be short.

Good points all. Not complete, but good points.

"What would you have us do?" you ask. Frankly, Ythat question is simply too late.

I predicted last September that the Fed was going to be in a real bind this year. With the collapse of the housing bubble (brought on by Alan Greemspan's 17 months of interest rates, after he had lowered the interest rates to as low as 1.75% to get Bush reelected in 2004) mixed with his refusal to regulate mortgage lenders who were criminally lending to people who should never have had the loans (Liar loans, for example, which IndyMac Bancorp specialized in to assist CountryWide Mortgage Co get loan origination fees.)

But Greenspan knew that he had to raise interest rates after the 2004 Presidential election because it was killing the value of the dollar. It's not like he had to lower interest rates before the 2004 election for economic reasons - he had raised them in 2000 to defeat Al Gore. Don't believe me? I show in my post Economics and politics of the Fed fund rate he has raised the interest rate to 6.5% in 2000 presumably to slow the economy and defeat Al Gore. There was not a good economic reason for that timing.

But now, with the increased rates in 2005 and 2006, the housing bubble that Greenspan had encouraged collapsed. That, and the various gimmicks used by the investment banks to expand loans (assets, they are called - until they become non-paying) are now coming back to bite America in the ass. This is too early, of course. The conservatives wanted the inevitable economic collapse resulting from their economic mismanagement of the economy to occur after a Democrat was elected President.

Say what you want - this is a direct result of the free market Libertarian ideology anti-regulation ideology pushed by the conservative movement and the Reagan Revolution.

So what do we do now? The American economy is going to suffer through the next two or more years of nasty stagflation while (we can hope) sensible government officials start properly reregulating the financial sector so this doesn't happen again.Because this was exactly the kind of unregulated economy Boom and Bust cycle, with each Boom and Bust larger than the one previous, that the FDR government created the SEC, the FDIC, and the Glass-Steagall Act to prevent. Because the financial industry cannot exist in a stable configuration without extensive clear reporting and close regulation - things the off-the-books games are designed to avoid.

Remember Enron. The off-the-books games were what ultimately killed them. If those things had been on the books, Enron would never have been seen to be profitable. Now we see that all the major American banks have been playing the same game.

What do we do now? First we just flat suffer as a nation. We start living within our means - which will mean, by the way, at least a 50% cut in the pentagon and Intelligence Agency spending which we can no longer afford no matter how bad the apparent need. Priorities will matter.

Also, we will apply real regulations to the financial sector. That will start with real reform in financial reporting. The risks have to be identifiable. This is going to cause a real shriek from the banks because they won't be able to play fast and loose with the risks they are taking as they presently are doing. So while the military will shrink, the financial regulations will need to sharply expand.

Although not directly related to the collapse of our financial sector, we also need to start emphasizing the fact this is a middle class nation, not one designed for the benefit of the wealthy. Because the alternative is the Latin American model - a very wealthy class, a very large poor class, and an anemic middle class that doesn't matter much. That alternative is where we are headed. (Go Read David Cay Johnston's book Free Lunch.) American previously avoided this problem because the European diseases wiped out the Native Americans and the resulting free land allowed Americans to move West, resulting in no real power to wealth because the free land allowed everyone the opportunity to become wealthy. The closing of the frontier and the rising population has ended that dynamic. Now we are just like Europe, China and India. Wealth equals power, and democracy is dying here. Europe has shown that it doesn't have to be that way, but a totally unregulated free market will inevitably lead to a strong class system and the Latin American model.

But your question was what do we do now? First we suffer. It's too late to avoid that. But then we reregulate our financial sector and stop this silly idea that government is the enemy. Not that it's not dangerous. Fire is dangerous, but civilization is impossible without it. The same is true of government. We have to get it back in balance with private enterprise - something that should never be allowed free rein because unrestrained it is fully as dangerous as is unrestrained government.

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Way back in January we warned about the Shadow Banking System . . . . Jon Taplin

No; Bill Gross "warned about the Shadow Banking System"; "we" (the imperial Jon Taplin, I presume, unless Taplin's been co-authoring Gross' monthly column) merely quoted him.

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Jonathan Taplin is allowed to refer to himself as "we." He's posting for two. Himself and his ego.

Dear Ellen- I was using the "collective we" meaning all the commentators who said this was not going to end well. If I recall, you were one of the people who laughed and said we were "the sky is falling brigade".

Are you still so sure of your position?

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Don't be so sensitive, Jon.

Nothing wrong with taking credit for others' ideas. And it's surely not your fault that an unprecursed pronoun in all its ambiguous glory (if I'm challenged I'll disclose (invent?) the pronoun's antecedent, later) was so temptingly at hand.

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Ellen:

I predict the economy will get better. Then I'll predict the economy will stumble. I should be about right every five to six years. During the interveneing years I will highlight every economists reasons for my then-current prediction. I figure one of them will be right or close to right (or at least it will sound reasoned); ergo "we" were right.

I'm a friggin genius, no? There are other topics too that I can opine on. It's a big white wall; let's see what sticks.

/c

None of us have original ideas - even the critics of the ideas presented. The best any of use, including you, can hope for is appropriate and well stated ideas.

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That's nice. I just finished my new play Hamlet, and my novel War and Peace is almost finished. You can see excerpts on the internet, which I invented. Don't argue with me, as I am the recipient of 82 Pulizters, as a faithful and regular reader of The New York Times. Clearly picking a fight with a Pulitzer and Peabody (I watch Colbert) award winner is futile.

You'd think a member of the Academy Of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences might make Taplin pause before stealing other people's work. I guess your point is that in an age of news aggregation anyone and everyone can take credit for another's work. What are you, like 12 years old?