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Obama's Hagel-Brzezinski Plan for Iraq

Barack Obama has an important op-ed today in the New York Times titled "My Plan for Iraq."

It's a useful portal into the current thinking in ObamaLand on America's Iraq policy and continues to emphasize both his opposition in 2002 to the Iraq War and his intention to "end the conflict."

Bringing conflict to a close does not necessarily mean withdrawing all troops, but my hope is that he does not get seduced into thinking that a largish residual, remaining force (say of 60,000 to 80,000 troops) would be seen by locals as anything other than a continued occupation.

What I like most about Obama's framing of his position is that he conveys an appreciation of the interconnectedness of the Iraq War to other challenges. He correctly points out that America's invasion of Iraq harmed our legitimate efforts against Al Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan. And the fatigue of our military superstructure today is making a more focused effort on Taliban and Al Qaeda resurgence in Afghanistan ever more difficult.

It would be helpful if Obama -- like his traveling partner Chuck Hagel does frequently -- articulates an understanding that shows how the Israeli/Palestinian divide is also part of this regional mess that too many foreign policy pundits (and many in the McCain camp) wrongly silo into separate, unrelated hot spots. But even without this, Obama's framing shows positive progress in his strategic thinking.

Obama is also in touch with the costs of the war -- 4,000 American deaths and nearly $1 trillion. I'd wish he would also mention the hundreds of thousands of Iraqis and Afghans who have died and the many other non-death casualties among American troops. But still, Obama doesn't deny the costs and appropriately points out that this came from "invading a country that posed no imminent threat and had nothing to do with the 9/11 attacks." As Council on Foreign Relations president Richard Haass has said many times, Iraq was for America a "war of choice." Obama agrees and thinks we should never have gone in and, for the most part, believes we need to get out.

But I am buoyed by Obama's embrace of the Maliki government's call for a "timetable for withdrawal" that links to increasing Iraqi competence managing its own course. Such a withdrawal plan would be connected to the kind of Bonn Conference-like convenings of internal and regional political stakeholders that former Ambassador James Dobbins achieved with the Iranians and other stakeholders in stabilizing (in 2002) post-invasion Afghanistan.

This is exactly the kind of approach that Zbigniew Brzezinski has long called for -- the announcement of a phased withdrawal connected to key negotiations among internal and external players. Chuck Hagel has long been calling for a similar kind of approach -- though with greater specificity than Obama and with more discussion of the regional ecosystem.

Obama is showing some Hagel/Brezinskiesque realism, and that is an excellent thing.

I remain uneasy about Obama's views on a "residual force". The scale of troops that one of his advisors, Colin Kahl (a friend), recently alluded to was nearly equal to the number of troops America has left deployed in Japan and South Korea for five decades. That's not "residual" or "minor". That's big -- and if left deployed in Iraq would not change any of the fundamental substantive problems that exist today with large deployments.

Fortunately, Obama in his essay actually states that he doesn't want anything like the character of deployments America has maintained in South Korea. This is excellent and commendable -- a great step in conveying an understanding of the benchmarks and trade-offs involved with ending the Iraq War.

There is much more that Obama should share with us on his views on how to move America to a different equilibrium in the Middle East -- but his oped today and his \ to Iraq with Senators Jack Reed (D-RI) and Chuck Hagel (R-NE) are confidence-builders.

-- Steve Clemons is Senior Fellow and Director of the American Strategy Program at the New America Foundation and publishes the popular political blog, The Washington Note


Comments (19)

On a recent radio show, conservative Tony Blankley and liberal blogger Arianna both came to the same opinion that they had thought Obama's argument for timetables on troops withdrawals could be vindicated by the recent statements by al-Maliki's govt concerning U.S. timetables. Don't think I couldn't more strongly disagree. Had Obama expressed what Arianna and Tony suggested and then gone over there only to find out it may not all seem what is being reported and analyzed by the pundits, it best to keep arms length on that one.... It would seem wise of Obama not to get ahead on the issue until he's had the chance to go over there, speak Petraeus et al. I surmise Obama's fundamental position won't change after the visit; however, as he says, he wants to approach the troop withdrawals, measured, nuanced, and carefully getting out as we carelessly got in.... (but hopefully, Obama does not enlist Sen Hagel as V.P. If Obama does, can we then accuse the Democrats of being appeasers to the Republicans)....

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What Obama didn't say is more frightening than what he said is reassuring. Never once did he use the phrase "bring the troops home", instead he said over and over that the troops would be "redeployed". He doesn't say where those troops would be redeployed, but it seems rather obvious that those troops would be "redeployed" to Afghanistan, especially after promising two combat brigades to that country. In other words, Obama is not going to end the war, he's going to transfer the war to another theater.


If we leave troops in Iraq they will continually draw fire. And every time they draw fire there will be clammoring to 'increase our security forces.'

I can understand leaving Embassy guards there, but that place is so volatile that it may be impossible to keep even the Embassy there. Maybe the best solution is get the hell out altogether and go back only when they solve their internal problems.

Nice to see that very little has changed among so-called Democrats, progressives & liberals: We still do everything we can to tear down our candidates and hamstring our chances of victory in November. Interesting that the OP and the two comments before mine spent as much time addressing what wasn't in Senator Obama's Op-Ed as what was, with no acknowledgment that this wasn't a book, a position paper, a press release, or a major policy address. People do understand the purpose of an Op-Ed, right?

Senator Obama's Op-Ed was a clear, concise expression of his fundamental positions as it relates to U.S. foreign policy in Iraq and Afghanistan. Clear and concise needed to go hand in hand here: Concise because the NYT wasn't going to give him his own 12 page fold-out section in which to articulate his views. Clear because (and this is already happening), the Bush mis-Administration, the McCain Campaign, and apparently some significant population on the American left have a difficult time handling any level of nuance without incorporating their own distortion.

Senator Obama didn't use the expression "bring the troops home" because that expression is ultimately an empty slogan. Some of the troops would be coming "home". Some of the troops would be going to Afghanistan. Some of the troops would be returning to their bases in other countries. "Bring them Home" is a bumper sticker, not an order you sign or execute. Senator Obama DID use the word "redeployed" because that's what you do with troops as a Commander-in-Chief. Electing Barack Obama is not a "get out of the military free" card. In the run up to the Iraq War, troops were redeployed to Kuwait, ships in the Gulf and other staging areas, from Afghanistan, South Korea, Japan, Germany, the United States, and everywhere else that currently houses the U.S. military. They were REDEPLOYED. Regardless of how the conflict in Iraq concludes, those troops who remain in service and are not guarding the embassy and other consular objectives will be REDEPLOYED. Some will be staged in Kuwait. Some will go back to Germany or South Korea. Some will return to the United States. And yes, some will go to Afghanistan. There's a little project going on there which may have escaped attention in the BevD household... Taliban? Al Qaeda? Have you heard these words before?

And Mariann2, I hope I'm not misunderstanding what you were trying to say, but the Maliki government absolutely provided vindication recently, and it wasn't just Senator Obama's position that was vindicated (since he was by no means alone in calling for timetables). It was the Bush Administration's position that was rejected. One thing Bush and McCain seem to have in common is a love for vague "benchmarks" which can then be gamed depending on how close we are to an election. John McCain has said he doesn't care how long it goes on, and that he wants to stay until people stop shooting at our soldiers, and only then does he want to figure out how many of 100 years they'll be there. In other words, indefinitely. So his benchmark is essentially "forever minus one calm day". But no matter how many times Dick Cheney sits down to chuckle about his disregard for polls or death counts or the suffering of American families, the American people have been consistent in saying that they want this war to end. And Barack Obama has been consistent in saying he wants to end it. And Prime Minister Maliki has joined that chorus on behalf of the Iraqi people by saying he will not accept a Status of Forces agreement without laying out exactly the sort of timetable that Bush, Cheney, & McCain seem to think emboldens the terrorists. So are Americans and Iraqis the terrorsts they don't want to embolden? Is Al-Maliki? Is the entire government that our soldiers, sailors, Marines, and Airmen propping up a bunch of terrorists? If not, we should respect their sovereignty. If so, we shouldn't let another service man or woman die defending them. So it's not Senator Obama who is painted into an inconvenient box by those sneaky little facts...

Returning to the original post, I'm not sure I understand the basis for all the concern and handwringing. Again, it's an Op-Ed. It isn't supposed to be detailed; it's a framework. The target audience is not defense and foreign policy wonks, but rather voters and members of the media that have been parroting the distortion of his recent remarks and claiming that he has "flip-flopped" on Iraq. His position is consistent and it is more consistently in line with the majority of the American people than John McCain's "position". McCain can only win by dulling the contrast. This re-establishes the contrast.

Was this the appropriate venue to discuss the connection between Iraq and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict? Absolutely not. Of course they are interconnected, but for the purposes of this Op-Ed, that framework is irrelevant. Think simply: George W. Bush sold Iraq as being payback for 9/11. Even though they were unrelated, 2 years later, he made it stick. War in Iraq diverted attention and resources away from Afghanistan, where the planners of 9/11 were given sanctuary. And now, 7 years later, the Taliban is resurgent in Afghanistan. Why? Because George took his eye off the ball. The news cycle is increasingly shifting back to Afghanistan, and the news is not good. In the average person's mind, what does any of this have to do with the Gaza Strip? The choice between Obama and McCain needs to be framed in a simple narrative: Bush took his eye off the ball when it was time to capture or kill the planners of 9/11. A McCain Administration will be nothing but repeating the same mistakes. Obama wants to get our troops out of a conflict that never should've been authorized and never should've taken place so that the focus can return to making sure that Al Qaeda and the Taliban don't regain their sanctuary in Afghanistan (not to even mention completely taking over Pakistan). In the average person's mind, that doesn't have anything to do with "Jerusalem," "Right of Return," or "pre'-67 borders." I trust President Obama to understand and address the interconnectedness of the region. I don't want to hear Candidate Obama talking about it.

Lastly, regarding the potential size of a residual force in and around Iraq: What size do you want? If we're going to have an embassy in Iraq, it will likely be defended by United States Marines. How many of them do you think will do the trick? And if we're going to continue to provide support and training to the Iraqi Military so as to minimize the potential that they are completely over-run, how many troops do you think that will take? Or are you in the crowd "bring them home" crowd that thinks that John McCain equals "all the troops stay" while Barack Obama equals "all the troops come home"? There were troops in Kuwait before this fiasco started, and presumably will be after it is over. They would be included in a residual force. Or would they be a part of the "bring them home" bumperstick movement? And there would be sailors, airmen, & Marines in the Gulf and on ships throughout the region. Or are we bringing them home as well?

Ultimately, my point is this: I don't have a problem with this discussion. I don't have a problem with anyone asking these questions of Barack. I don't think Barack should be above critique. But the NYT Op-Ed was designed to achieve a very specific aim, and I haven't seen any evidence that it was anything other than a success in terms of execution. Those desiring nuance and detail should seek it where it is appropriate. The message of the Op-Ed was that John McCain is the status quo, while Barack Obama represents an end to a war that was based on lies and a deception, and a mistake from the moment it was authorized. Mission Accomplished.

You know I just have to laugh at how you twist yourself in knots justifying essentially staying the course pretending that something is changing. Your examples of redeployment remind me of a shell game. Move them here, there and everywhere and if we keep everything in motion Americans won't catch on to the con game.

It's great farce, but the Chinese are going to own the military before long. They won't have to defeat it, just repossess it.

Count me as one of the "bring them home crowd". From Kuwait, Korea, Germany, Iraq .... just keep bringing them home.

ondioline says:

"Nice to see that very little has changed among so-called Democrats, progressives & liberals: We still do everything we can to tear down our candidates and hamstring our chances of victory in November."

That comment is uncalled for, no one here is trying to bring down Obama or trying to cause us to lose races in November. On the other hand, if we all marched in lockstep, we'd be Republicans.

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I have nothing but respect and admiration for Mr Clemons, but come on Steve, I don't know how close we want Zbigniew Brzezinski anywhere near the Afghanistan/ Middle East Issue. I find anyone who takes greedy credit for having masterminded the Soviet Vietnam quagmire , that gave us some say a million Russian deaths entirely without purpose ( and so what if they were supposedly enemies of the west, they were people ) and the near total devastation of Afghanistan in the process, oh, and spawned a little group whose name in Arabic means " the Base" ...to be just this side of a sociopath.
Nixon had his Kissinger and Carter did too, but he was Zbigniew Brzezinski and he was as bloodthirsty and calculating a player as you'll even find.
I simply don't believe that we are still citing that wretched old guard that have brought us so much misery when there are so many other and better modern thinkers out there ready and willing to act in the best interest of us all , and not this puny ego-driven 'realpolitik' Gamesmanship these old bastards seem to think is fun. People Starve and people cry out and people burn through no fault of their own , and people like Brzezinski read about it and pontificate and , while being nearly never correct about much , seem to do quite well financially by staying in the mix. I say we move on to more compassionate thinkers .

Otherwise, your insights are as always interesting. Thanks.

I loved the Op-Ed for what it said, which was a lot given the normal game of spouting jingos, ducking tough calls, and blowing smoke, i.e. "straight talk" from the Express and their friends. It was a lot even in a normal world where ideas are welcomed to the debate.

What it didn't say, particularly the Hagel-style linking of conflicts, says more about us than Obama, (IMHO.) Some important allies in the fight to regain control of the US government from the likes of Cheney and Wolfowitz et al are too willing to bolt if the Israeli-Palestinian conflict gets too close to center stage. I wish it were otherwise. A coalition must be built and some changes can only happen slowly, therefore certain subjects get a more quiet treatment.

That's how this bub from the hinterlands views the "missing" words.

You seem to have inside info on the residual force. I trust your friend is way off base, by a factor of 80. Otherwise Obama's words don't add up and I see no reason to doubt him on this. Personally I hope residual force is in the dozens or less, advisors, working side-by-side peacefully with all the other players, including our adversaries. A full-court diplomatic press by pros can make that happen and pointing out that the Iraqi call for a timetable is an opportunity was brilliant. It is a golden opportunity.

Democrats need to find a better word than "redeploy."

There has been a run up in military personell due to Afghanistan but especially Iraq. More active duty National Guard, Reserves, and new recruits,
many now on their second and third deployment, which simply destroys morale.

If you're going to redeploy troops and not mention redeploying many back home, you're telling the public you're going to keep those large numbers that Bush ran up, on active duty, but in other countries. This won't go over too big with the public.

It's interesting to me this is receiving so little attention. The Democratic presidential candidate lays out his Iraq policy in an NYT op-ed, to be followed up tomorrow by a major speech on the subject. The blogosphere, which on other occasions might tend to push the argument that Iraq is the most important issue facing America today, seems to be focusing its attention elsewhere.

Bush is trying to distract us from the war by starting Great Depression II.

Well, according to what I've read in the blogosphere, the New York Times sucks along with all of the other "MSM." If Obama wants to have the blogosphere pay attention, he has to put it on a blog, eh? Several thoughts come to mind: Wouldn't surprise me if the reason one Obama doesn't want the blogosphere to pay attention.
And somewhere in the blogosphere, Obama has already been blamed for "moving toward center" by "ignoring the people's media" and playing footsie with them corporatist media types.

Only half joking. :-)

My more serious content-oriented comment:

This is not what I wanted to hear from him in a New York Times op-ed, there is nothing here he hasn't laid out before, and it reads like simplified campaign literature. Perhaps not his fault, perhaps it's a case of the editors asking for a statement from him, and that we can expect one from McCain to be published shortly as well.

In any case, like I said on on another thread yesterday, I want to start hearing about what he actually wants to do about southern Afghanistan/northwest Pakistan. And I mean specifics, about what kind of activities troops should be pursuing and other American policies and actions. And I'm sure I'm not alone on that, as things go from bad to worse there. McCain, too, let's hear it, what's your plan. That is something I'd like to read, not a summary statement of their already strongly stated opinions on Iraq, nor what their advisors thought about Afghanistan 6 months ago.

Please 'scuse that I didn't close the link at the right place. At least it works. :-)

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Is anybody watching "Generation Kill" on HBO?
It started last night. Marines going into Baghdad. Oh MY God! Of course we should leave and of course all this machismo is really stupid.

The question of how many troops should stay in Iraq needs to be split into at least two separate questions:

What role does the U.S. presence and withdrawal play in having the Iraqi groups move toward a political solution of what otherwise will be "negotiated" through civil war?

What U.S. forces will be needed inside Iraq to "stabilize" the region both in the sense of keeping the borders of the existing countries in the same place and preventing any other nation from performing a "regime change" in Iraq?

The two questions are obviously interrelated but it is impossible to talk about the development of a policy if they can't be viewed separately. Making his observation was the primary purpose of the Iraq Study Group report.

The Cheney/Bush administration did not address that element of the report but criticized (or adopted) particular policy recommendations on the basis of whether they concerned "facts on the ground."
By refusing to acknowledge the central message of the report, the administration was admitting they were embroiled in a state of emergency that did not permit the development of policy. This paralysis of discourse has been marketed as the firm jaw of decisive leadership but it is actually the quivering lip of intellectual bankruptcy.

While I share artappraiser's desire to hear more than general statements about "national interests" from Obama, I am heartened that Obama has signaled that the U.S. is strong enough to have a policy and talk about it on the eve of his tour of foreign nations.

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What role does the U.S. presence and withdrawal play in having the Iraqi groups move toward a political solution of what otherwise will be "negotiated" through civil war?

A subsidiary question to this is

does disclosing the intended role have its
on effect?

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What role does the U.S. presence and withdrawal play in having the Iraqi groups move toward a political solution of what otherwise will be "negotiated" through civil war?

A subsidiary question to this is

does disclosing the intended role have its
own effect?

Disclosure of intentions would most certainly have their own effects.

Your question reminds me of the covert vs. overt policy discussion that was prominent in the Old TPM Cafe when the ISG report first came out. There were many who expressed the opinion that the report did not represent a specific plan of action so much as a series of messages intended to influence different groups. This view was expressed by both defenders and opponents of the present administration.

I reject the either/or judgment in the matter. While no executive government can be effective if it reveals everything it wants or doesn't operate outside of public channels, the other extreme leads to a vacuum where the executive is accountable for nothing and is unburdened by the need to deliver any planned result revealed to others.

In Iraq, the critical issue is becoming whether the U.S. can accept the formation of strong communities there. Whatever other purposes (and pocketbooks) it may serve, the present state of endless emergency will not permit anything like that to happen.

Any meaningful change of course has to start with turning the sirens off.


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@aa.

With luck, we won't hear the details re Afghanistan you demand from Obama anytime soon.

When the people who have a clue about the place AND the "Anbar Awakening" AND COIN theory/practice are unsure of what will work, I don't want Obama making premature statements about military strategy in that most difficult theatre of them all.

There's been a very informed discussion going on among military/thinkanker types focusing on strategies, etc et al at the abu muqawama blog that is must reading for those concerned with such things.

Here's what one of the main contributers, Charlie (a woman, btw) has to say about McCain's transfer-the-surge notion:

"Ok, this is six kinds of interesting. Charlie would love to know which specific "strategy" has been nominated for export....and whether it was based on any assessment of, you know, Afghanistan. There are some basic COIN best practices that might improve the situation in Afg (one word: sanctuary), but the broader population centric approach would require significant changes to be successfully applied there. And if McCain's crew think they can blindly transfer "lessons" from the Anbar Awakening to the assorted tribes in Afg (and NWFP?) then we're gonna have some real fireworks."
http://abumuqawama.blogspot.com/

As with any excellent blog of this nature, the informed commenters add immeasurably to the quality of the discussions spurred by the content provided by the highly experienced "anon" headliners.

Thanks to them, I learned that one of Obama's key advisors, Richard Danzig, is a regular reader of abumuqawama and that:

"Phil Carter from Inteldump.com just got to be his veteran advisor ;-)"

Skip the Kristoff's et al. Reading them is akin to tasting some gravy and thinking it's the prime rib.

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