A Warning For Young Workers: The Up-Escalator May Be Broken

My 22-year-old daughter graduated from college in May, and I'm worried about her as she enters the workforce--actually I'm worried about her whole generation as it enters the workforce. Many young people don't realize that they face a far less friendly workplace than when my generation entered the workforce in the 1970s.
To tell the truth, when I began researching my book, The Big Squeeze, Tough Times for the American Worker, I wasn't planning a separate chapter on the nation's young workers--by that I mean, workers under age 35, and especially young Americans who have recently entered the workforce. But as I proceeded with my research, I was surprised and chagrined to learn how tough things have grown for young workers--and that was before the current economic downturn. As a result, I added a chapter, "Starting Out Means a Steeper Climb."
One especially dismaying study found that men in their thirties have a median income 12 percent lower, after factoring in inflation, than their fathers' generation did when they were in their thirties. That study, sponsored by the Pew Charitable Trusts, said, "There has been no progress at all for the younger generation . . . . The up-escalator that has historically ensured that each generation would do better than the last may not be working very well."
In my chapter on young workers, I write about a depressing trend: two-tier contracts in which newly hired workers are permanently consigned to a lower pay scale than older workers. I profile John Arnold, a 29-year-old forklift driver for Caterpillar, the tractor manufacturer. Because Arnold is on the wrong end of a two-tier pay scale, the maximum he can ever earn is $14.90 an hour or $31,000 a year--some 25 percent below what the fifty-somethings who work alongside him earn.
Another unfortunate trend is that entry-level wages for college graduates and high school graduates fell from 2001 to 2006, after factoring in inflation. Not only that, in families with at least one parent aged twenty-five to thirty-four, median income slipped by $3,000--by nearly 6 percent--from 2000 to 2005, according to the Census Bureau.
Today's young workers face these wage problems partly because they are the first generation to come of age after the high-tech bubble burst, after the offshoring of jobs to India exploded and after millions of factory jobs disappeared in a new wave of deindustrialization. Moreover, today's young Americans are entering a workplace in which the job security that my parents' generation largely took for granted has all but evaporated. Nowadays the unspoken message is that you have to bust your butt and perform well to make sure your employer keeps you. You also have to earn your pay increases because automatic raises are increasingly a thing of the past. As one business school professor put it, "It's an, 'If you give, you'll get' model,"
Longer-term wage trends have been just as troubling. From 1979 to 2005, entry-level wages for male high school graduates without college degrees slid 19 percent (after inflation); for their female counterparts, they fell 9 percent. For young workers with college degrees, entry-level wages did rise during that quarter century, although modestly and still far more slowly than wages for most older workers.
The changing mix of jobs--think Wal-Mart stockers and Starbucks baristas--is undercutting entry-level wages for those who do not go to college. "In the 1960s and 1970s, you saw high school graduates getting good jobs at Ford and AT&T, jobs that in inflation-adjusted terms were paying twenty or twenty-five dollars in today's wages," said Sheldon Danziger, a professor of public policy at the University of Michigan. "Nowadays most kids with just high school degrees will work in service-sector jobs for ten dollars or less. That's where you see a big drop."
Their wages may be falling, but one thing has certainly increased as young Americans struggle to maintain a middle-class lifestyle: their debt burdens. In households headed by someone aged twenty-five to thirty-four, average debt has climbed to over $55,000, up 70 percent from the 1980s (after accounting for inflation). Indeed the average debt load for young Americans--comprised largely of housing debt and college loans--actually exceeds their annual household income, a sharp change from two decades ago.
And the safety net for young workers is in sorry shape. All told, more than one-fourth of the 45 million workers under age thirty-five do not have health insurance from any source--by far the highest rate of any age group. As for young workers with just high school degrees, two-thirds do not receive health coverage in their entry-level jobs, up from just over one-third in 1979.
Corporate America's increasing tightfistedness over pensions is also hitting young workers hard. The share of workers twenty-five to thirty-four participating in an employer-sponsored pension plan or 401(k) slid to 42 percent in 2005, down from 50 percent five years earlier.
As Anya Kamenetz points out in her book Generation Debt, the Internet Generation will enter the prime of life in a nation as gray as Florida is today, and as a result that generation will face an unprecedented burden in sustaining the Social Security system. In 1960, sixteen Americans were working for each retiree. Today there are four active workers contributing taxes to Social Security for each retiree. In 2030, there are expected to be just two-and-a-half workers per retiree. Today's young workers may well face a double squeeze--to keep Social Security solvent, Congress might increase the younger generation's payroll taxes as well as trim their Social Security benefits. Also disturbing is the fact that the folks in Washington are building mountainous budget deficits, and they're simply passing the bill to their children's and grandchildren's generations. How fair is that?
All these trends have fostered considerable pessimism. Forty percent of voters surveyed in exit polls conducted on Election Day, 2006 said that life would be worse for the next generation, while just 30 percent said it would be better. Still, it is important to remember that some things are better for the younger generation--longer life spans, lower crime rates and wondrous developments like the Internet.
Labor unions often pay scant attention to the struggles faced by twenty-somethings, and many young workers do not relate to unions. Many labor leaders are in their sixties and seventies and don't talk young people's talk or issues. Sometimes I think that every labor union should have a youth division that focuses on reaching out to young workers--and union should have spokeswomen (and men) who know how to connect with young workers.
To be sure, some young workers are doing very well. That's especially true for those who get the most advanced or prestigious diplomas, especially M.B.A.'s, law degrees and medical degrees. At some corporate law firms, starting pay for twenty-five-year-olds out of top-notch law schools is $145,000 a year. Frank Furstenberg, a sociology professor at the University of Pennsylvania, said that young adults increasingly feel "that having just a B.A. isn't going to get you a really good job as it did three or four decades ago." The message is, to get ahead, you need more and more education, preferably at elite and expensive schools--and to get that education you generally need affluent parents or to go deeply into debt.
With good jobs increasingly requiring specialized skills, it appears that young workers without college degrees will generally end up in worse shape than those without college degrees did in the past, while those with superior credentials will do better. "You're much better off as a young worker today if you're the child of the well-to-do and you get a good education, and you're much worse off if you're a child of a blue-collar worker and you don't go to college," Professor Danziger said. "There's increasing inequality among young people just as there is increasing inequality among their parents."
I keep wondering what, if anything, are young Americans going to do about all these problems.


Comments (64)
There is a solution, one that worked well for Greenhouse's generation of the '70s. Vote for the Printing Press!
Young people are supposed to be in debt. A lifetime of earnings pays off that debt and results in the late acquisition of assets. Whether one comes out well or poorly depends upon whether or not one pays off the debt with depreciated currency.
Inflate Young People! You have nothing to lose but your debts.
July 2, 2008 9:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
That's one answer.
Another is: Get off the materialist rat race hamster wheel.
Wal-Mart stockers, or others, stop buying so much materialist crap, and cheaply made materialist crap at that, at Wal-Mart, let alone Best Buy, etc.
July 2, 2008 12:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
socraticgadfly: Agreed. Get off the hamster wheel! I paid off my student loans last year, have never had a Credit Card, and I have no other debts. I never got a cell phone until last month, or cable or any of that other stuff.
www.yourmoneyoryourlife.org
www.daveramsey.com
:) :) :)
July 2, 2008 12:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
That whole inflation thing works really well for those of us who saved all our lives... :-) :-)
July 2, 2008 7:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Have your daughter and children write to Congress and thank them for outsourcing first manufacturing jobs and now, outsourcing white collar jobs to Iraq, India and China. Thank you, and have a nice day - signed, President G.W. Bush
July 2, 2008 10:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
"Nowadays the unspoken message is that you have to bust your butt and perform well to make sure your employer keeps you. You also have to earn your pay increases because automatic raises are increasingly a thing of the past. As one business school professor put it, 'It's an, 'If you give, you'll get' model,'"
Must have been a slip of the tongue on the part of that professor. I think what that business school professor meant to say is this:
"If you give, the CEO will get. You, on the other hand, will get little reward for your hard work. So if you are really smart, you will work to change the way things work in your country to ensure that people who work hard are rewarded. To start, you might want to get the money out of elections, because then your representatives will be working for you and your interests."
After reading your piece and thinking about recent policies and trends, I think we are likely to end up with a generation of people who work LESS hard because they have little to lose and no incentive.
And when the notion of a strong work ethic loses all meaning for workers, the majority of corporations and investors will lose, too. Karma for greed, I guess. Just another great way to lower productivity and ruin an economy.
July 2, 2008 10:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
Beg to differ a little. I graduated 1970, and it was two years almost before I got a job in my field [chemistry, BTW]. So it wasn't that hot a market for quite a while.
Then to speak on the average wages back then, I have always thought it was skewed all out of proportion. Soon after I got my job I was listening to relatives talk about one of their kids getting a push-broom summer job where they worked for an auto company - union factory work. The kid was getting paid over 80% of what I got paid with my degree.
I think that era is an anomoly; low skill factory jobs in particular industries were getting paid way beyond their value as measured against other industries and professions. I do remember talking about how workers in the auto industry would be pricing themselves out of their jobs. Times since have trended back to more rational proportions.
I don't think it is unusual for a professional to spend more than a year to find the right job. Ahead of us, the economy is and will be much worse than now, and people should be paid a living wage; I am not arguing that.
Yes, wages for low skill jobs have been going down while degreed jobs have gone up. But I have not seen an explanation as to why a factory worker should get paid as well as a skilled worker, so perhaps this is a natural place to be.
July 2, 2008 11:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
i am a young worker and i feel the pressure to get an advanced degree. good jobs are hard to come by if you don't have one. I have a decent one now but there's almost zero chance for me to move up unless i have a masters or a law degree or even a phd, and i don't feel comfortable settling down without some chance to move up. and from what i hear, you don't even really pick up new skills by getting these degrees! they're a total farce!
July 2, 2008 11:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
I don't know if I'd call an advanced degree a 'total farce'. Yes, you often aren't taught work-related skills. But you ARE taught to think, which is really valuable. Another way to learn to think on your feet, without an advanced degree, is to be an entrepreneur. Those people learn to be pretty quick--either that, or they go down in flames.
July 2, 2008 1:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Define "thinking skill" and please give me an example of when this skill made a difference.
July 2, 2008 3:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Perhaps Steven covers this in his book, but another challenge for the young worker or the unskilled worker is the difficulty in finding permanent jobs. Typically, young workers are hired on a part-time basis or an on-call basis. Companies would rather hire 2 part-timers than one full-timer because they save on benefits. I see this as little more than a scam - we'll give you a job, but it won't have any benefits or hope of becoming a full-time permanent position.
There are many parents like Steven who see what's happening and worry not only for their kids, but for themselves because parents are providing many of their kids, struggling towards independence, with housing and/or financial aid at a time parents are trying to prepare for their own retirement.
Over the last 20 years we've slipped from being the financial dynamo of OUR parents to an economy that resembles post-war England.
July 2, 2008 12:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
The young people coming out of college are perplexed. Thinking that jobs would be there, and seeing the way some find them while others are completely left out, they have no idea about their next move -other than how keep the costs of their lifestyles going --often a Starbucks job and home with the parents. They're not readers of books, unfortunately. Hard to figure how the message in your book gets to them.
July 2, 2008 12:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Steven Greenhouse: Robert Reich (sort of) attempts to answer the following question in his book Supercapitalism.
I saw Reich speak once, so I asked about the role of VISA/Mastercard (consumer debt in general) and "Gotcha Capitalism" in the pockets of the average person. I love the guy, but he completely dismissed the notion that debt was hindering people from fighting back for worker's rights (a quick check in the Index to Supercapitalism reveals that he doesn't mention in the book either).
I think he made a BIG mistake by ignoring it. For the average joe to make the leap to FULL, ACTIVE CITIZEN, they must not be afraid of losing everything and going bankrupt.
July 2, 2008 12:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
In my opinion, the 22-year olds right now are thought of by the lenders as a part of their parents and their grandparents' financial portfolio. That is to say, Johnny 18-y.o. at Univ. of Nebraska is given a $7,000+ spending limit on a credit card with no job BECAUSE the companies know that the kid may end up borrowing from their parents or grandparents to pay it back in 5-10 years anyway. They're trying to perform (in Sopranos language) a "Bust-Out" on THE WHOLE FAMILY, not just the young ones.
July 2, 2008 1:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
I dunno. I'm 37, so I'm right around the age of what you're looking at. I don't think it's that hard to reach whatever level you aspire to. Most kids get too hung up on irreconcileable personal goals when it comes to work/family/lifestyle. They impose a lot of this debt on themselves tilting at windmills. I always provide whatever advice I can to my younger coworkers, and I think most of them appreciate it. (The college career center won't tell them the truth.) It's always better to work in or around a prospering company/industry/region than one in decline. You can *always* find one. I tell them bounce around early--every six months if you have to--until you find a career field/position you like. Liking your job is the key to long-term satisfaction. After that, be competent, ethical, and diligent. Your first six months will define you within the company. Never say no to the first special project (big or small) you're offered. Knock it out of the park, and you'll be promoted at your first annual review, if not sooner. If not, put the experience on your resume while it's still fresh and walk. You've spent too many years honing your skills and cultivating your interests to be insulted. Sell them to someone who will appreciate your worth...and someone will.
July 2, 2008 12:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Holy $hit, tenaciousd, that's fantastic advice. You should be a life coach. :)
July 2, 2008 1:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
As one who was stupid enough to graduate in 1975, I must say, the blogger is confused about how easy it was in the 70s. The 70s were a nightmare.
July 2, 2008 1:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
It is interesting that back in 1969, without a college degree, I was turned down for being "over-qualified" for a position I applied for. Being a white male was not an asset when companies were trying to meet Affirmative Action goals to eliminate race and sex inequalities in the workplace.
Then after I earned my bachlors degree I had the same thing happen. At least that time the person that interviewed me admitted that if he hired me I'd probably end up with his job!
July 2, 2008 1:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
One of the big mistakes the unions are making by accepting two-tier scales is that you have a group that feels screwed over right from the get go.
In a decade, those same young workers will be able to vote on getting rid of health benefits for retirees in exchange for a raise for themselves.
July 2, 2008 1:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think it's possible for this line of inquiry to be both fruitful and meaningless at the same time. On the one hand, research may adequately describe the situation faced by young workers. On the other hand, it may fail to usefully compare their situation with the situation of similar-aged people in prior eras. I guess what I am saying is, history is written by the winners, so, it seems like every generation but the current one has done better.
Here's a quote which certainly makes it seem to me like things are no worse now than they've ever been:
"...tens of millions of Americans are, at this very moment, maimed in body and spirit, existing at levels beneath those necessary for human decency. If these people are not starving, they are hungry, and sometimes fat with hunger, for that is what cheap foods do. They are without adequate housing and education and medical care."
Michael Harrington, from _The Other America_ written in 1962.
Overall we are at least not worse off than that, right?
Dave
July 2, 2008 1:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is one major reason why so many young people are opting out of hierarchical employment tracks, either trying to start businesses early or choosing lower-paying careers with more work-life balance. Ironically, in the minds of far too many employers, this attitude is labeled "lazy" and/or "entitled."
Even the highly skilled, high-paying professions (like law) have huge downsides exactly because of this new "constant competition" mentality. New lawyers work far more hours than entry level lawyers did 30 years ago. The disparity between firms and government/public interest is also much higher. And while firms' starting salaries partially reflect these hours, the new lawyers accepting these jobs must effectively cede their personal lives entirely. 80 hours work weeks in-office are not uncommon, and the hours you're not working are tied to a BlackBerry. But it's what's necessary in order to hang on to that salary -- and without that salary, that huge debt you need to pay off starts to become a serious, scary issue.
I am 25 and currently in law school, and it's interesting to see the dichotomy in attitudes. A lot of people are seriously considering giving up roughly large salaries (not counting bonuses) to go to government jobs with loan repayment benefits rather than firm jobs specifically in order to secure a reasonable working life. The high-paying firms are very often seen simply as places to service debt for a few years before moving on, and they suffer HUGE (and quite expensive) attrition rates as a result. But this isn't seen as a labor issue so much as a symptom of irresponsibility.
The alternative is to try to get out of the system of large employees entirely and start your own business. Even in the best of times, that's never been easy right out of school (you have to accumulate capital, contacts, etc...). But today we also have record high health costs and virtually unaffordable private health insurance. It's hard to opt out of a hierarchical system when it can literally mean taking your life in your hands.
I'm really happy to see books tackling this issue being published because this is, in my opinion, one of the biggest gaps in generational understanding in years. We see huge institutional debt, a crushing attitude towards work, virtually no job security, and a hugely inadequate system of social support. Our bosses, remembering how it felt to be a college graduates 20-30 years ago, generally see a bunch of lazy bums asking for more than they deserve.
July 2, 2008 1:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Cheers. I'm turning 25 in August and have put off Law School for that exact reason: I don't want to live my job. So many of my friends love their jobs but work crazy hours and cede to their position a loyalty that, to me, seems to trump family at times.
When you are afraid to take vacation time that YOU EARNED for fear of what your employer might think well that to me is just crazy. But when I question this it's always "i love my job" or "i'm going to bust my ass to get to management and then i won't have to work like this" .... i just don't know, I've been able to walk away from jobs like that and boy did it work out better for me.
I think tenaciousd put it really well in regards to strategy for the young people...it's exactly what I did and now I've landed a job in a secure industry with great pay, benefits and an employer who understands that my life does not begin and end in this office building!
July 2, 2008 2:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm totally with you on this issue, as I went into law school viewing corporate America as a debt refunder for a time, then realized that I wanted some job security, time off work, time to start a family (newly engaged), and actually HAVE a life. I 've seen too many of my friends here go into complete dark depression over their work schedules, and I'm not a lazy person. But I have been treated that way, for not wanting to strive for that after some experience with it.
July 2, 2008 8:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
According to a recent NY times article, very few recent college grads from elite schools like Harvard are choosing lower-paying jobs in public service. Those with the right qualifications are still overwhelmingly choosing high-powered corporate jobs:
July 6, 2008 12:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Great discussion and thanks for the insight into many of the scary numbers which young workers are facing in the marketplace.
Because I am young I have very little perspective on the generation which preceded my generation. But one thing seems clear, in the past there was a substantial industry of blue collar jobs for those that did not have technical degrees or college degrees. Many of those jobs had retirement plans and healthcare plans protected by union representation. We do not seem to have as many of those jobs for my generation but maybe our country has more people therefor less jobs. Also throughout my life it seems that there has been a concerted effort by the business community and the goverment to get rid of unions and union jobs, not to mention the piss-poor management of our Auto industry by the leading American companies. Another facet to this story is the way that corporate America uses and endless supply of young college educated workers to work as contract employees. Two of the companies my sister worked for in the late 90's and early 00's employed her over a 9 month period as a prospective hire/contract employee. For her work she was given no healthcare benefits nor retirement benefits until such time as her contratc expired. Obviously I can not speak for her or the company but the result in both cases was that she was let go at the end of her term and had to look to find another job. In both cases she was left the impression that both companies frequently used this tactic to hire high-ckilled entry level workers without having to give them benefits. I would guess that the ttransition for such a job was not as critical in cost analysis as saving money not paying benefits! When I graduated from grad school, I was given the opportunity to work for a leading Goverment Contractor on the same type of temporary basis. Six months later I was given the opportunity to get healthcare and a 401K. I think this is a normal business practice throughout corporate America and somthing that I believe is rather unethical on a part of corporate America. Throughout my grade school education I was told to succeed and that if you succeed opportunities will come your way. They told us that college was the way to guarentee your future but here I am and here my sister is following the steps and leadership from previous generations then getting treated like indentured servants having to pay the piper first.
Another complaint I have and my girlfriend has about corporate America that may not be unique to my generation but standard operating procedure for corporate America is business asking you to give up much of your free-time in order to succeed. I am of the school of "working to live" not "live to work". I have been educated, I have a college degree and a Master's. I understand that if a business is going to succeed that it must have worker's who go above and beyond but nonetheless I feel like much of corporate America resembles a Autocracy with its own rules meant to control the lives of the employees of the companies. I feel like I have to be proven innocent by the background checks, the drug tests and the trial employment period demanded by companies such as the one I work for. I understand that many coroporations in America do not resemble my words but I fear that this is an exception not a rule. I am angry at the previous generation, I am angry at the lack of quality fo life which corporate America only rates in relation to their bottom lines. I feel that their are many who make up my generation who have massive doubts about globalization, corporate America, the role of our goverment and its ties to coroporate America and the violations of our personal rights by this current administration and those of other administrations. It would seem that control and a lack of liability is all that many care for, I do not seek control I seek life and integrity in leading my life. There I go rambling again, Sorry! I am just extremely cynical about the lifestyle which I was told to expect as a child and the world which I see as an adult. The two are mutually exclusive but not quite exact opposites!
July 2, 2008 1:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Cheers.
July 2, 2008 2:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
When didn't you have to make sacrifices to "succeed"? You have choices. You can work your behind off for the corporation and if you are good enough and play the game maybe you'll be financially secure. You can go into business for yourself and if you work your behind off maybe you'll be financially secure. You can choose to work less and make less money and redefine success. You are young and you have choices.
In 25 years, you'll have fewer choices so you decide what you want and then you make it happen.
July 2, 2008 8:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
meh people forget about cycles. I graduated in 1992 after the great tech layoff of 1991. I found a job, it didn't pay terribly well, didn't get a good paying one until 4 years later. But did find one.
I do think there's something insidious about the "oh, you don't matter, we can just replace you attitude" as what that does is create workers who will not excel and propel a business beyond expectations.
$55,000 debt?? Is that credit card or student loan? If student loan it's at least manageable with decent rates, if credit card that's insane. How do you spend so much money you don't have???
July 2, 2008 1:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Kathy T: I agree there are cycles. But if you're loaded with oppressive debt on the front end of life (say a 22-y.o. chef with 80k in Student Loans), that debt grows steadily over time. It's inescapable, so the dips int eh cycles seem that much worse. The key is to avoid all debt like the plague.
July 2, 2008 1:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
greenhouse - In households headed by someone aged twenty-five to thirty-four, average debt has climbed to over $55,000, up 70 percent from the 1980s (after accounting for inflation). Indeed the average debt load for young Americans--comprised largely of housing debt and college loans--actually exceeds their annual household income, a sharp change from two decades ago.
actually, there's no shortage of anecdotal or empirical evidence [demos, ">jchs, icas et al.] to substantiate the author's point: escalating (adjusted for inflation) student debt, housing debt, consumer debt etc. among 25-34 cohorts.
July 2, 2008 7:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
cretinous comment software link correction:
[demos, jchs, icas et al.]
July 2, 2008 7:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
see also re cohort debt, student loans, gender (anecdotal).
July 2, 2008 7:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
$55,000 is nothing if you get a professional degree. That was the cost of my first year of law school. And they "strongly urged" us not to try and hold a job during that time, which was good advice if you wanted passing grades.
July 2, 2008 8:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Am I the only one who finds this somewhat insulting? We're not the ones who worked out the way to exploit us or who passed the bill for massive deficit spending on to us. I'm not saying we shouldn't be working - hard - to improve our situations and our chances of having a decent life, but a little help, cooperation, and remorse from older generations wouldn't hurt either.
For the record, I'm 23, graduated in 2007 with a BA and an MA, and I got a good job a year ago with the federal government. Very few of my classmates can say the same thing, despite years of investment in learning Arabic, Chinese, advanced physics, and other skills the government desperately needs.
July 2, 2008 1:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
A good education is the ladder up. Unfortunately it is not available for enough qualified high school graduates. Tuitions have been on the rise, Pell grants devalued, and less financial aid programs for the middle and working class families.
Even if every High School graduate is guaranteed a college education, there are not enough slots available at the nations colleges to facilitate them. Even if you could guarantee the slots, there just isn't enough money to pay for it.
The real problem boils down to a lack of decent "blue collar" jobs.
I've been watching this happen for 20 years. The losses of manufacturing and industrial jobs. The heavy reliance on service base jobs.
The use of "permanent" temp-workers.
If you think this is only a problem for the youth, you have another thing coming. Who will pay for the social security checks that us 40 somethings and older are going to cash? If they can't pay for it, then I guess you can use that check for tissue paper.
The U.S. economy has been losing its value over the last 25 years (except for 5 years in the 90's), and the trend is set to continue.
July 2, 2008 2:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't think we put too much on education? My degree is fine, but after a few years in to my working life it was all about my on-the-job experience. Some fields have very definite skills requirements, but most don't. I reached a point in my career where I figured I could either get a master's degree or wait until I had five years work experience. Since I figured it would take me almost five years to get the next degree, I dropped out of grad school and focused on diversifying my work experience (and starting a family while I waited). It worked. Now, that I've climbed a few steps, I'm surprised by how many people have "made it" with a B.A. or with degrees from entirely unrelated fields. Few kids know what they would want to do with the rest of their lives at the age of 22. I didn't, and I'm glad I didn't rack up debt trying to figure out I didn't want to be a lawyer.
July 2, 2008 3:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am curious as to what type of blue-collar" industries could actually succeed in modern America. A very large % of Americans could not afford goods that are made in this country anymore. It's a vicious cycle. First, manufacturers saw a way to fatten their profits by moving jobs to places where labor was cheaper, taxes lower, regulations lax, etc. That resulted in people being shifted into low-wage jobs. This reduced their purchasing power in sheer dollars, but luckily the products being imported from China, etc. were so much cheaper than those that had been made in the US in years past, no one much noticed.
Companies have little incentive to come back to the US as this would hurt their bottom line. Not only would their labor costs go up, but the first to jump in the pool would find most of their customers unable to afford the more expensive products. Unless enough companies came back at once to provide high-paying jobs to all who have lost them, it would be too much of a gamble, I would guess. Plus, the American-made products would no longer be affordable in third-world countries, so those with international markets with get hit in that area, too.
No, I think that ship has sailed. We need to cultivate a smart economy not a manufacturing one. While there are many reasons to have a manufacturing base in the US, it's just hard to image that will happen. People need to get educated and/or work hard gaining experience in an information or tech or science field in order for this to happen. But, there is another key component. We need massive public investment in these fields. The government no longer supports any of these areas like they used to. If they did, we might begin to see the innovation that America is famous for in many areas. Then, there will be jobs galore for those with the right skills.
July 6, 2008 1:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm a 63 year old who agrees with you. I think the job market is incredibly tougher for young people than it was for me when I was your age.
There has been a steady growth of corporate power and a steady erosion of union/labor power over the last 30 years, starting with Reagan's busting up the traffic controllers' union. We are where we are as a result:
- contract jobs with no benefits
- no healthcare benefits
- no pensions
- stagnant wages
- fewer manufacturing jobs
- more competition from illegal low wage labor
My parents had pensions. I won't - those jobs disappeared years ago, but I do have a 401k. I'm not saying you can't make it. I have a son who is doing very well, and another that is barely scraping by, but it's ingenuous to insist that this is the same labor market it was 30 years ago.
July 2, 2008 2:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hell, yeah, I bet it was easier. As late at the Sixties America was producing close to 50% of the world's GDP and it was shared mostly among white males. You didn't create that situation but you benefitted from it. Some of the tightness today comes from a natural opening up of the workplace and the fact that the rest of the world's economies gained ground. I honestly believe one of the best things we could do today is help smart kids (B or A students) test out of high school up to two years early. That will give them two more years to get degrees and/or work to pay for degrees, start families, etc. It would be a true motivation. But, America is hung up on high school as this idyllic waste-of-time, coming-of-age experience conducted at the snails pace of the lowest-common-denominator students, who could benefit from the extra two years of intensive remediation. I swear the nitwits wasted at least two years of my time in public school. ("I forgot my pencil, Mrs. Jones.") I just hope they went on to sign contracts for lower wages driving forklifts!
July 2, 2008 4:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
I took summer-school, was accepted at a state university without high school diploma ("early admission", a program for bright geeks), blasted through computer science and electrical engineering and was working before I was 21.
Fortunately, there was no college debt. That was a good thing, since there was very little to spare as it was. I could afford a used VW rabbit 3 years after graduation.
I have a philosophy about college which does not fit well with American society today: Education is not for the students, it's for the society into which they gain entry. If they make "the grade", showing through their academic work that they are willing to work for their keep, then college is the best way for them to contribute to economic productivity. Either preventing their advanced education through high costs, or by saddling them with debt seems unwise.
It is to our benefit when young people achieve a proper education, and I for one believe that completing college with a big pile of debt in this tough job market is be bad idea. Instead of building careers and contributing to the economy, too many young graduates are forced to think almost exclusively about money.
It comes down to productivity: Establish the best way to maximize the likelihood that the aggregate population has the ability to contribute to America's competitiveness, then get to it.
July 3, 2008 9:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
Outsourcing jobs to India isn't the only problem. In-sourcing cheap H1-B labor to compete with young workers on their own turf places enormous downward pressure on wages for technical workers. Enough H1-B visas are ranted each year to fill over 75% of the high-tech jobs created in the United States.
This type of artificial supply of labor sends the market the wrong signal. If a young person is deciding which field to enter, and she sees a sudden spike in wages among programmers (such as happened in the mid-nineties) she would be more inclined, all things being equal, to choose computer science as a career. In five to ten years, the domestic supply of high-tech workers would grow to meet demand, prices would level off, and you would have a solid base of well-paid, home-grown professionals.
But when you import supply to meet 75% of demand, (particularly from country in which half the population lives on less than $2 a day) wages plummet, and our young person is less inclined to choose a high-tech career.
We could go into secondary facets of the problem, such as lower costs of education, differing motivations (domestic workers want to buy houses and establish families, H1-B workers want to save as much as they can and leave after five years) and so on, but the main problem is that domestic workers are being undercut by legislation that benefits a handful of India-based consulting firms (Tata, Wipro) that lobby very hard to increase H1-B caps even in the face of a daunting recessions.
July 2, 2008 2:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
July 2, 2008 2:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
I believe that an all-out effort by this country to invent, engineer and product green energy is the saivng path. If we ultimately fail on perfect environmental solutions the consolation prize of a thriving energy economy and brand will drive good jobs and the economy for decades to come.
The Manhatten Project and Man on the Moon before the end of the decade are the relevent models for mobilizing the nation now.
It's all about leadership.
July 2, 2008 2:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here, here!
July 6, 2008 1:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
At some corporate law firms, starting pay for twenty-five-year-olds out of top-notch law schools is $145,000 a year."
The gap between the perception of the value of having a law degree and reality is staggering. To be sure, graduates from top-15 programs do find jobs paying in the 125,000 to 160,000 range. As do a few top graduates of lesser schools. Unfortunately the vast majority of graduates leave law school saddled with staggering amounts of student loans only to find their dreams of high-paying starting salaries dashed against the reality of a entry-level job market that is highly competitive and heavily saturated with hundreds of equally qualified law school graduates.
Employers have woken up to the fact that they can offer starting salaries starting as low as $30,000 in cities like New York and Los Angeles and literally receive hundreds of job applications from well-qualified law grads desperate to get their foot in the door somewhere. Temporary jobs and part-time jobs have proliferated and offer zero security and no benefits. Add the fact that the average student debt load after graduation is $80,000 and it’s not difficult to see why so many recent graduates are working multiple jobs in addition to whatever legal work they can piece together.
Law school might have once been a guaranteed ticket into a secure stable profession, but those days are sadly long gone. Now, the only thing that graduates from top-15 law schools can count on is student debt, an uncertain job market, and zero job stability in the event that an individual is fortunate enough to find a non-contract job.
July 2, 2008 2:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Dickey's totally right about that. And that also fuels the "live to work" mentality. Employers enjoy some pretty great leverage when you've got $100K in debt and you know of classmates only making $30K a year. Note that loan repayment benefits for people making those incomes are only available for public interest or government employees too -- a lawyer at a small firm making $45K/yr (which would be a totally decent salary if it weren't for the massive debt load) gets no help whatsoever.
And yet law is being offered as one of the only "secure" job routes left. A scary thought.
July 2, 2008 3:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
ExBrit and xtophr both make excellent points.
When I was a teenager (the 70's) I had a paper route for 4 years, I worked at McDonald's, then at Denny's. I realized that I was not able to go to college, so I joined the U.S. Air Force. Many of my friends went to Vo-Tech and trade schools and have done OK over the years.
During the 12 years I spent in the military (79-91), I was very lucky. I served during a time of relative peace, and was able to get an education.
Unfortunately joining the military is not as attractive an idea as it used to be. There are the obvious reasons, and a lot of more subtle reasons.
What used to be the normal enrty level positions or teenager jobs (fastfood restaurants, landscaping, janitorial) are often being filled by people my age and older. Some of these positions are filled by ExBrits generation, to help supplement their social security and retirement checks.
I know these aren't the greatest jobs in the world, but these are the jobs that college students do to help pay for their tuitions. Or young people use to learn a work ethic and learn how the job world works.
xtophr's point that that H1-B visas are artificially distorting the job market is right on the mark. Student's are always chasing closing career fields. This hampers our ability to compete in the global environment.
The path for a non-college educated worker being able to work their way up through hard work, experience and ingenuity has pretty much disappeared.
ExBrit will remeber this. In 1911 Winston Churchill was appointed 1st Lord of the Admiralty. During which he made a speach that stated "A nation that cannot to provide for itself, is destined for doom".
I hope that we can correct these trends before OUR empire disolves.
July 2, 2008 3:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wow! The last five years of the 70's (1975 to 1979) saw monthly unemployment peak at 9.0% average 7.0% and never fall below 5.6% OTOH, last month just bumped _up_ to 5.5%.
That is far less friendly than today. The worker unfriendly end of the 70's were the BIG reason Carter was a one term President.
July 2, 2008 3:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, Mr. Greenhouse -- in the past few years I've seen articles predicting that today's youth may be the first generation of Americans with a shorter life expectancy than their parents. And it may be true that overall crime is down, but some major cities are battling terrible surges in gun-violence deaths among inner-city youth.
I'm not trying to nitpick (I know the obesity epidemic's less an issue among 20-somethings than their younger sibs, and there was a NYT article the other month suggesting it might be headed in the right direction) ... but these are the sort of issues that tie into the divide Danziger mentions, toward the end of your post.
It would be nice to see more articles written on that divide that don't conclude with a shrug and a tacit "Poor bastards."
Many comments here seem to treat a four-year college education as a given. Others seem to have some sort of bourgeois fantasy about life outside the "rat race" as a simple worker.
It's one thing to bum around in minimum-wage service industry jobs for a year or two, diploma safely in hand, before you go skipping off to grad school. But it's not so romantic trying to survive this economy with spotty-to-nonexistent health care coverage and without those degrees.
July 2, 2008 3:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
"bourgeois fantasy"? Please. I'm just talking about no debt. Doesn't matter where you came from and/or what you do.
July 2, 2008 3:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
It is far less friendly than in the 70's and it's ridiculous to cite unemployment figures and suggest otherwise. Unemployment statistics today don't tell the whole truth - if you're underemployed as a part-timer or a contract employee - you're counted as part of the employed.
Another positive factor in the 70's - the safety net wasn't as eroded as it is now. Health care was less expensive. There were more manufacturing jobs, less illegal labor. It's a different ball game today.
July 2, 2008 4:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
As long as bosses have single (hell, or married) daughters, I'll do allright!
As for Mr Greenhouse, the solution is clear: give your daughter your job!
July 2, 2008 4:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Holy crap! Read through this comment thread. Unbelievable! People, you can have everything you want in America, all you gotta do is two things: Stay outta debt, and control your reproduction (I said control, not eliminate!)
Do that, and stay outta prison, and you got it made. Fail at any, or all of those three things, and your row is gonna be much harder to hoe.
A good digestion helps, too.
July 2, 2008 4:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
The mid- to late 70s (when I entered the job market) were terrible. Recession, hyperinflation, the first round of jobs going elsewhere (the South and abroad). In addition, you had people from the peak baby boom years entering the job market at a time when even a more robust economy would have had trouble absorbing them. A lot of people from my cohort wound up in jobs that had not necessarily required college in the past, such as retail management. Employers took advantage of the oversupply of college graduates to change the profile of many low level managerial and technical positions. This eroded opportunity for non-grads, as well as lower the entry level possibilities for grads.
The current cohort has advantages and disadvantages that weren't present 30 years ago. With an aging population, the job market should improve over time, as boomers retire out. Given the debt load some of these people carry, the process may be slower than in past generations, but things will improve. there is no IT sector on the horizon, but the need to confront gloabl warming may create opprtunities for people with training many areas of science and technology.
After college, I worked in low level social service-type jobs, got some experience and then went back to school and got a PhD in a field with plenty of demand. This option is less possible now because of the caost of higher education and the debt that people accumulate. I left grad school with relatively modest debt and used second jobs to pay off most of the principal within 5 years. I wonder how many can do this now. I think this mitigates the value of advanced study.
BTW, many graduate degrees are a dime a dozen...education, MBAs from non-elite institutions, lawyers who don't go into big firms or corporate practice, etc.
The future for your daughter and others requires rethinking of how to fund education and the kinds of skills that will be needed. Having lived through a long, bad job market, I see reasons for hope, but I also worry that many of the avenues for advancement really have become more difficult.
the necessity of accumulating debt needs to be questionsed, but the cost of many basic things (e.g., housing in major metros, eductaion) makes it more difficult to avoid debt for people early in their professional lives.
July 2, 2008 4:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
One thing for sure in this crazy, mixed up economy, a guy who can play a decent jazz piano will always find work. Unfortunately, that guy isn't me, but I guess you knew that.
July 2, 2008 4:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
You're obviously a comedian, not a jazz pianist. :)
July 2, 2008 4:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
My daughter's boyfriend, who is 26, is making $60,000 a year as a software programmer.
I am a journalist/copy editor, age 58. I was recently laid off because, well, you know, newspapers are dying. I was grossing $42,000 after 30 years in the field.
July 2, 2008 4:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ii>all you gotta do is two things: Stay outta debt, and control your reproduction (I said control, not eliminate!)
You forgot to add a third requirement: don't get sick! If you do, you might lose your health insurance, and then you're up sh*# creek, for sure!
July 2, 2008 5:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Today there are four active workers contributing taxes to Social Security for each retiree. In 2030, there are expected to be just two-and-a-half workers per retiree."
That does not sound like bad news. Look at it from a workers point of view. Right now you have four people competing for your job. In 2030 you'll only have two and a half. With labor scarce you'll get better working conditions and better pay. With labor more expensive, employers will use labor more efficiently (like the French), so productivity will rise. Some of us remember the 1960s and 1990s.
Right now, as in the late 70s and mid 30s, a large cohort is joining the workforce. (I think we had 18 year old peaks in 1978 and 2007. There was also post war baby boom during the early 1920s, but I don't have the profiles handy). That means it is hard to get a decent job and it is all the baby boomers (post WWII) fault. We suck.
I wouldn't bank on a manufacturing renaissance. That line of work has been vanishing since 1900. By the late 1950s all the talk was about the lousy economy and our vanishing manufacturing sector. It still hasn't made a comeback. From the point of view of agriculture, mining and manufacturing, we are all rich. We just need the political will to make sure everyone gets a piece of the wealth.
July 3, 2008 1:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
H1-B visas are a HUGE problem in my neck of the woods. Most of the biotech firms and universities in my state stopped hiring local grads years ago.
July 3, 2008 12:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
H1-B Visas are a problem here in the middle of America. The J Pickle company (pressure vessels) was convicted for tricking Welders from India to come here to Tulsa then pay them minimum as "trainees" – living in onsite barracks – holding their passports, cut off from India. Competition by bringing the 3rd world here!
I have a BS in Mech Design, specializing in 3D Cad design (AutoCAD, ProE, & SolidWorks).
For the last 20yrs I have been "outsourced", "down-sized", "right-sized", "off shored", "temped-out". I've commuted 150 miles (rented a small appt - then - after layoff and rehire 2 weeks later - lived in motels. Ahh those roaring 90’s!
2000-2004 finished off my meager IRA. Bankrupt in 2004 after BOK added 13k in penalties and fees – refused to work with their own Branch Vice President (who was on my side)! How do you call a manufacturing design engineer? Waiter!
Thank God I am working again – actually in my field! I have absolutely no idea how long the Job will last. Raises (even merit) are out but we do have profit sharing. Good O&G small OEM manufacturer. I will never be able to retire (unless I win the lottery - US retirement plan)
I find it interesting that BOA & Citibank (who bankrolled lobbying for NAFTA&GATT) talk about "personal responsibility" with card debts but don't make any connection with the Corporate decisions to purposely kill off jobs (then wonder why you can't pay).
net!
The Actor killed of the Unions with the Flight Controllers (who were striking over public safety issues from “deregulation” – not over pay) “deregulated” the S&L’s without oversight, imploding from greed a few years later… just as predicted. “Welfare Queens in Cadillac’s ” verbal slight of hand ignoring the Wall Street “Welfare Kings in Chauffeured Rolls Royce’s
Bush the Elder let loose the “Temp wave” with the 1989 “Tax Reform Bill” lobbying bankrolled by and for Manpower Inc.(Redefined temporary workers – before if you worked over 30 hr’s the company had to offer you full benefits).
The 90’s royally sucked. Bill Clinton was a moderate Republican. That “Giant sucking sound” NAFTA & GATT. The 94 Telecommunications (deregulation) act! Welfare to work (killing off the social safety net). Repealing Glass Stegal (deregulation of financial instruments) coupled with Sen Phil Grahms 2000 budget amendment deregulating derivatives.
No longer is capital available for business startups - only financial takeovers and business dismemberments.
And now the Smirking Chimp is reigning over the final and systematic destruction of all of FDR’s New Deal, LBJ’s Great Society, and T Roosevelt’s Anti Trust. Prescott would be so proud!
We can have socialism for financial risk (bailing out wall street, bearsterns, Citigroup’90s, GM’80s, but we can’t have socialized medicine. We can borrow as a Nation abroad to fund Wars of choice but we can’t fund infrastructure maintenance. Or public schools, or Alternate Energy, or affordable housing, or drug treatment, or public transportation.
We can fund domestic spying and create a department of “Homeland security” (funny – I thought that was what the military was for – silly me!) Never Again Volunteer Yourself. But we can’t fund Levee maintenance. We can have tax cuts for Corporations and Investment income but we can’t cut sales taxes on food. We can’t even store supplies of essentials for national emergencies. We can build massive detention facilities and be prepared to round up dissidents (with private “security contractors”).
There will not be a “French Revolution” here. Mass arrests: yes.
The Collapse is planned. The powers have learned from their mistakes. You don’t keep tapes for posterity – you erase them. You shred incriminating documents and delete emails (triple low level reformatting the hard drives). Marginalize and retaliate against whistle blowers and credible detractors. Pack the courts with Ideologues and fill the media with political demagogues.
You have been warned. These are the people our forefathers warned us about. These are the times to try ones soul.
July 4, 2008 12:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
Re: before if you worked over 30 hr’s the company had to offer you full benefits
Huh? There has never been a law mandating benefits (other than public ones like social security and unemployment) for any workers. Companies were always free to offer or refuse health insurance, vacation time, sick time etc. to anyone.
Re: The 90’s royally sucked.
Maybe for you. For many of us the 90s were pretty good. The rising tide really was lifting all boats back then.
Re: “Giant sucking sound” NAFTA & GATT.
My blue collar friends (in Michigan) were bitching about to much overtime not job losses and the like back in the 90s. Where did you spend that decade?
July 5, 2008 6:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
I can't remember whose comment it was from above about his daughter making 61K just two years out of college and he getting laid off after 30 years making just 40K! I am glad to hear your daughter is making it and sorry to hear about the loss of your job.
I believe a you do that we are seeing many traditional avenues of employment, such as in your case, dying off as an opportunity for future generations. Apparently many job sectors have been dying off here in America such as many of the blue collar (manufacturing jobs) that existed in from the early 1900's through the 70's. I understand that much of this is on account of the development throughout the rest of the world and the relationships that many of our corporations have with international businesses. So it is expected that many of our job sectors would change with the movement of the dynamic market-place. Many of us who were raised in the 80's and 90's were told by the generation in power at the time that a college education was a prudent path to follow to succeed in this changing world. They told us that it would make us more qualified in order to compete in that marketplace. And for many of us this is true. But for others, not a significant minority I believe, we are faced with the fact that our education did not ensure us the same security in the marketplace that was promised and in many cases was delivered. Many of us have a large amount of debt because throughout the 80's and 90's the government for the most part did not extend the benefits to the new generation of college students at the same rate of growth which occurred within college enrollees. Yes we were given and are given relatively low interest rates and long term pay backs to lessen the burdens of these loans. However many of the jobs that are available in the marketplace do not allow us to repay these loans before the long-term approach. As the market shifts and the cost of living goes up it places many of us near an edge of financial ruin if we are to lose a job or if we lose our health. I simply find this a bad position for our nations and the people in it. I think it places stress which could otherwise be relieved in young workers as they get older. The facts in the marketplace show us that during the same period the US sustained robust growth over the long term. The economic equality gap has grown over the last decade or so. Many of us who are getting further and further behind whether young or old are not seeing the benefits of much of this growth but we are are feeling the burden of the marketplace. Again I simply see this as a bad position for our government to take for its own safety and security and to ensure such for the future. I think it makes the marketplace less competitive both in reality and psychologically. How can we have an effective marketplace if only the very few elite are aloud to contribute to the direction of our economy and the influence of decision maker's about our future as the people of the US? Trickle-down is not really trickling down! How can it be in our best in interest to have a nation that places it's judgement and trust in the hands of a very few?
July 4, 2008 1:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sorry, using the 70's is ridiculous, either use the 60's or the 80's.
This is how I remember the 1970's--
Unemployment rate 1974-1977 ranging 7.2% to 9%!
Not to mention inflation at 10% for some of those years.
Population changes, the baby boom, and the unemployment rate
Monthly Labor Review, August, 1990 by Paul O. Flaim
It was a joke to have a PHD, there was a glut, if you were really really lucky, it got you one-year academic appointments across the country teaching other younger boomers at a salary level slightly higher than a T.A. Many anecdotes about people leaving their advanced degrees off of their resume, got them an "overqualified" rating, and a presumption that they wouldn't work in a gopher entry-level job at low salary like a Bachelor's degree holder would. The boomers competed with each other until they had advanced enough to start buying stuff and services, read the article, it explains it quite well.
As a young person then, it looked like you would never have a decent job, that you would always be competing with your own massive generation. All the economists in newspapers and TV news told us it was impossible to have low unemployment and low inflation as the same time, impossible, that was the generally accepted theory.
As for blue collar, sure if you had a good union job you had it great, until you were laid off, which happened often. If you didn't have the "in," you didn't get one of those jobs, you were just a bum or a construction worker, continuously laid off. If you were lucky, you had a knack for fixing cars.
As for the auto industry itself, well, I recall you had laid-off auto workers having Japanese car smashing contests. Not everyone could be a city government janitor, those jobs were handed down to relatives.
July 7, 2008 3:17 AM |